rate the teams for 2007

[ratonmacias]

hey this is a thread about bias, gut feelings, and plain speculation . how do you expect the teams to end up next year. (note i said teams not drivers)

ferrari
mclaren
renault
honda
red bull
williams
toyota
bmw
str
aguri
spyker.

post on...

[Jonesi]

FERRARI
RENAULT
McLAREN
HONDA
<gap>
BMW
TOYOTA
WILLIAMS
REDBULL
<gap>
TORO ROSSO
SPYKER
SUPER AGURI

[Roamy]

ferrari
mclaren
honda
red bull
renault
williams
toyota
bmw
str
aguri
spyker.

I guess I obviously think Newey will make a difference

[Dazz9908]

Ferrari (Bridgestone's wide eye boys. Contracts still apply this year)
Slight Gap to a bunched up group of
=Renault & Honda
=Mclaren & Toyota
=BMW & Red Bull (will take time for the team to Equate themselves with Newey's new design)
Williams (Will close the gap to equal the above, I'm positive.)
Super Aguri (using Honda's car from last year, will do well)
Big Gap to
Spyker
STR.

[Viktory]

Ferrari
Mclaren
Honda
Renault
BMW
Red Bull
Toyota
Williams
Super Aguri
STR
Spyker

[Rusty Spanner]

Renault – Providing they master the Bridgestones

Ferrari – Will master the Bridgestones but question marks remain after the loss of some key players.

BMW – Provided it can maintain its progress from last year should start to pile up a good number of podiums. A win will probably be out of reach.

McLaren – Alonso will remotivate a tired and frustrated team. Slow start, strong finish. Will win races in the second half.

Honda – Will probably design a shed for the first few races of the season but will come good once back in Europe.

Red Bull – Neweys presents will mean progress is made but it will highlight weaknesses in other areas of the team previously hidden.

Toyota – Team needs stability. If it gets it progress will be made.

Williams – If they get reliability they’ll do much better than this and will probably be Toyota best chance of podiums.

Torro Russo – Depends on how the whole customer car argument plays out.

Super Aguri – Depends on how the whole customer car argument plays out.

Spyker – It will be a step forward from Midland, but a lot of steps are needed. Overall position very dependent on the outcome of the customer car argument.

Renault and Ferrari are the only teams I feel are almost certain to come out strong and be in a position to win races from day 1.
BMW through to Williams is anyones guess. Potentially a huge very close scap
Torro Russo, Super Aguri and Spyker seasons all depend on what happens with customer cars.

[samuratt]

FERRARI (the finished the 2006 seasson with the strongest package)
McLAREN (Alonso will do the job! and will get some help form Lewis towards the end...)
RENAULT (they have a lot of potential but very weak drivers...)
HONDA (if they keep their 2006's form they can overtake Renault)
WILLIAMS (I think that with the new engines they will make a good progress)
BMW (their steady progress will continue in 2007, and they will score more than a couple of podiums)
RED BULL (while Newey can be a God, even He needed the angels to get the job done... when did Coulthard or Webber become angels???? ...
TOYOTA (with Trulli and Schumacher as drivers it doesn't matter how good the car is, you are screwed!)
TORO ROSSO, SUPER AGURI & SPYKER (the will fight not to be the last ones...)

:bandit:

[ShiftingGears]

Ferrari - Strongest form at the end of 2006, Bridgestone, very good drivers
McLaren and Honda - Honda is constantly improving and have consistency in their driver lineup, and without major staff changes, something that other top teams dont have. I think McLaren can be up there with Alonso, and if Hamilton is very good then that means they have themselves a very good lineup.
Renault - Could be a strong car, Drivers still need to prove they can achieve though.
BMW - I believe they're improving.
Williams and Red Bull - 2006 for Williams was catastrophic, and with the current driver lineup I don't hold much hope. Red Bull... I have a feeling that somehow Newey's design will not be good enough. I think Webber and Coulthard are decent drivers, the latter having plenty of experience in F1. Though I remember seeing Coulthard being passed by a Toro Rosso more than once.
Toyota - the invisible team. I don't expect them to go anywhere.
Last three is a toss up.

[pino]

TOYOTA (with Trulli and Schumacher as drivers it doesn't matter how good the car is, you are screwed!)


:bandit:

How about ( no matter who the drivers are, with such a crap car you are screwed )

:p :

[Knock-on]

FERRARI
RENAULT
McLAREN
HONDA
<gap>
BMW
TOYOTA
WILLIAMS
REDBULL
<gap>
SUPER AGURI
TORO ROSSO
SPYKER

It's surprising me that people are marking the twice Champions quite a way down.

[Narr]

FERRARI
It's surprising me that people are marking the twice Champions quite a way down.

But if you remember Fisi is "leading" the team it all makes sense :D

[Knock-on]

But if you remember Fisi is "leading" the team it all makes sense :D

Fair point but the car is so close to the Ferrari that they should be there or there abouts. If Fisi can raise his game with a very promising team mate, they have got to be in the running??

[agwiii]

It's surprising me that people are marking the twice Champions quite a way down.

It's because Renault no longer have a Class 1 driver. Fisi has his moments, but he's really a class 2 driver.

[jens]

Tough to make any precise predictions now, but commenting about others - Red Bull (one man is expected to do miracles) and Williams (a private team with average budget is expected to do miracles) are probably the most overrated teams here. Have my concerns also about Honda - they have been looking forward to fight for the title already the last two seasons, but have failed to being even close. Probably Toyota and BMW (both factory teams, with more and more experience every year and a lot of potential - definetely more than RB/Wil) the most underrated?!

But luckily unlike the driver's case in team's case we will get an answer, how under-/overrated anyone really was. :)



TOYOTA (with Trulli and Schumacher as drivers it doesn't matter how good the car is, you are screwed!)


How did those "crappy drivers" manage to take Toyota to 4th in the WCC in 2005?

If Honda, BMW or Red Bull fail this year, will you criticize the drivers? And if not, then how are the Toyota guys weaker? And I'm not even talking about raw speed, I'm talking about car development. I have heard rumours that Montoya is lazy, but I've never heard anyone complaining about Trulli's and Ralf's job outside GP races. IMO their testing skill might be one of the main reasons, why they have been given such a long contract. But you seem to insist with that those drivers Toyota is unable to develop anywhere.

And try to prove, how for example are the Williams drivers (who you predicted to finish 5th in the WCC) better than Yota's.

[Knock-on]

It's because Renault no longer have a Class 1 driver. Fisi has his moments, but he's really a class 2 driver.


Can Fisi step up to the challenge though. that is the question.

Possibly but I think I agree with you that he wont. I think he might struggle next year against his team mate.

[scaliwag]

OK Knock you asked for it, so here goes.

(1) Honda.

(2) Mclaren.

(3) Renault.

(4) Ferrari.

(5) S. Aguri.

(6) BMW.

(7) Williams.

(8) Toro Rosso.

(9) Redbull.

(10) Spyker.

By the by Knock, is there a prise for the correct prediction?
If so what is it?

Regards scaliwag

[Knock-on]

OK Knock you asked for it, so here goes.

(1) Honda.

(2) Mclaren.

(3) Renault.

(4) Ferrari.

(5) S. Aguri.

(6) BMW.

(7) Williams.

(8) Toro Rosso.

(9) Redbull.

(10) Spyker.

By the by Knock, is there a prise for the correct prediction?
If so what is it?

Regards scaliwag


I wouldn't worry about a prize with that prediction Scally :laugh:

One thing is for sure though, if JB does well, it's due to the car and if the Honda is not on the pace of the top three, it's because of the Driver :D

[ratonmacias]

Tough to make any precise predictions now, but commenting about others - Red Bull (one man is expected to do miracles) and Williams (a private team with average budget is expected to do miracles) are probably the most overrated teams here. Have my concerns also about Honda - they have been looking forward to fight for the title already the last two seasons, but have failed to being even close. Probably Toyota and BMW (both factory teams, with more and more experience every year and a lot of potential - definetely more than RB/Wil) the most underrated?!

But luckily unlike the driver's case in team's case we will get an answer, how under-/overrated anyone really was. :)



How did those "crappy drivers" manage to take Toyota to 4th in the WCC in 2005?

If Honda, BMW or Red Bull fail this year, will you criticize the drivers? And if not, then how are the Toyota guys weaker? And I'm not even talking about raw speed, I'm talking about car development. I have heard rumours that Montoya is lazy, but I've never heard anyone complaining about Trulli's and Ralf's job outside GP races. IMO their testing skill might be one of the main reasons, why they have been given such a long contract. But you seem to insist with that those drivers Toyota is unable to develop anywhere.

And try to prove, how for example are the Williams drivers (who you predicted to finish 5th in the WCC) better than Yota's.


regarding williams and red bull. its not about 1 man or an average budget. its that both will have solid engines, solid engineering teams, and in red bull's case two decent although not awesome drivers. in williams´s case my doubt is nico as he was all over the place last year.

bmw is already suffering from having young kids as testers.

honda hasnt been able to recuperate from signing taku and firing willis.

renault wont fight for anything unless heikki turns out to be real good. as fisi is good somedays and awful some other days.

[jens]

regarding williams and red bull. its not about 1 man or an average budget. its that both will have solid engines, solid engineering teams, and in red bull's case two decent although not awesome drivers. in williams´s case my doubt is nico as he was all over the place last year.

bmw is already suffering from having young kids as testers.


What concerns solid engines, then this year the difference between different engines is closer than probably ever before, so they won't have a remarkable advantage. Plus they are not factory teams - buying an engine is always a disadvantage (the factory team has always at least a slight edge, because they can develop the engine unlike privateers).

And what concerns RB's driver line-up, then their line-up is of course strong, but IMO none of the current Top6 teams has a weaker line-up than RB's, so can't find a noticable advantage there.

What concerns engineering, then during relationship with BMW the titles of Williams clearly stayed beyond the technical personnel. As it was said: "BMW always makes a good engine, but Williams is unable to build a decent chassis." In recent years those problems have only deepened - do not expect them to build a top-level chassis.

And what concerns BMW, then many teams have their young driver programs (Red Bull, McLaren-Mercedes, Renault, even Toyota as it has recently turned out), so that is not gonna be a problem IMO.

[Viv]

Ferrari - Should be able to make it with the current momentum and Bridgestones experience
McLaren - Unpredictable
Renault - If Fisi is up to the challenge, they'll end up higher. Otherwise I think they'll just beat Honda
Honda - Another season with a bad start and a decent finish
BMW - Expect them to improve, but the top 4 are a too far ahead for BMW to make an impact I think. Will get podiums but no wins.
Toyota - Haven't done much in all these years..I don't expect they'll improve
Red Bull - Even with Newey I don't think they'll make an impact on the top 5. May challenge Toyota at best
Williams - Din't want to place them here. But sadly their lack of funds I expect will be a problem yet again. If the Toyota engines are good they may get a handful podiums at best. I have my doubts over Wurz and Rosberg struggled last year albeit in a bad car.
STR
Super Aguri
Spyker

[ratonmacias]

And what concerns BMW, then many teams have their young driver programs (Red Bull, McLaren-Mercedes, Renault, even Toyota as it has recently turned out), so that is not gonna be a problem IMO.

lets see the testers:
top teams
ferrari-badoer
mc laren- de la rosa
renault- zonta?

middle teams
honda-rossiter
toyota-montagny
bmw-vettel
red bull-doornbos
williams-karthikeyan,nakajima

bottom teams.
aguri-yamamoto
toro rosso-who knows?
midland who cares?

see a trend here the top teams have test drivers that have driven f1 cars since the 90´s. with that expirience they can say wether it was a tc or tyre related issue unlike vettel who said it was a tire issue only to have mario thiessen say it was a tc related issue.

if red bulls youth programme was so good why hire webber? why test bourdais?

[jens]

lets see the testers:
top teams
ferrari-badoer
mc laren- de la rosa
renault- zonta?

middle teams
honda-rossiter
toyota-montagny
bmw-vettel
red bull-doornbos
williams-karthikeyan,nakajima

bottom teams
aguri-yamamoto
toro rosso-who knows?
midland who cares?

see a trend here the top teams have test drivers that have driven f1 cars since the 90´s. with that expirience they can say wether it was a tc or tyre related issue unlike vettel who said it was a tire issue only to have mario thiessen say it was a tc related issue.

if red bulls youth programme was so good why hire webber? why test bourdais?

Ferrari has always concentrated on more experienced drivers, true.

But Renault's test drivers have been Kovalainen, Montagny and Alonso in previous years. And they haven't done badly, have they? And this year they have Piquet Jr as well.

What concerns RB, then Speed and Liuzzi have had their first full seasons in F1. RB wants "complete drivers" to drive their #1 team and a driver needs at least two seasons to have enough experience to drive. Red Bull is currently trying to achieve something with experienced line-up like Toyota, but it seems pretty likely that after 2007 DC has to give his race seat to Liuzzi/Speed. And it's early to say that RB's young driver program wasn't good. Things in F1 don't happen in one year - give them some time!

BMW is clearly concentrating on future. Their goal is not to win this year, but in the longer perspective.

And we can't criticize the bottom teams for giving youngsters a drive. For them it is really tough to attract any experienced driver, who has already tasted at least little success. Williams is also in the similar situation.

[wacked]

Mclaren
Renault
Ferrari
Williams
Honda
Red Bull
Toyota
BMW
STR
Spyker
Aguri

[Narr]

bmw is already suffering from having young kids as testers.

honda hasnt been able to recuperate from signing taku and firing willis.

renault wont fight for anything unless heikki turns out to be real good. as fisi is good somedays and awful some other days.

BMW is suffering from having Mario, I don't think the team is big enough for his ego.

The second half of Honda's season after letting Willis go was excellent; it seems Willis was a hinderance and quite easy to get over.

[Gannex]

I think Renault will have a very bad year. The centre of gravity of the Renault has traditionally been further towards the rear than in other cars, but that will really hurt next year, if reports about the 2007 Bridgestones are to be believed. Drivers and engineers alike report that they are much less grippy than last year's tyres, and that this loss of grip is particularly pronounced in the fronts. Bridgestone's technical people admit that the more conservative construction of the 2007 tyres has hurt the fronts more than the rears, so cars with a forward centre of gravity are going to be at an advantage for a change.

How can Renault deal with this? Either they can completely change the concept of the car by moving its centre of gravity forward, to match Ferrari and McLaren, or they can move the centre of pressure forward by either increasing front wing angles of attack, or by the reduced use of flow conditioners which poach front downforce and transfer it rearward. But if they do either of those, they have a serious problem; the centre of pressure will be forward of the centre of gravity, which will lead to oversteer in fast corners.

So Renault will struggle, because their car is a very poor match for the new tyres. Ferrari will struggle too, because of the departure of key personnel. Only McLaren will be in good shape for next year, and so the top three teams will be

1. McLaren
2. Ferrari
3. Renault

in that order.

[agwiii]

Can Fisi step up to the challenge though. that is the question.

Possibly but I think I agree with you that he wont. I think he might struggle next year against his team mate.

I think we have about the same perspective on Fisi. Another point on which we agree. OMG! :)

[Jonesi]

But if you remember Fisi is "leading" the team it all makes sense :D

For me it was more a matter that two of the top three teams have complete F1 rookies on them. Rookies usually make mistakes and will miss out in points in some of the early races.

[Brown, Jon Brow]

Mclaren - Alonso and Hamilton will be a winning combo :up:
Ferrari - Kimi and Massa will be a runners-up combo
Honda - JB and RB will get a few wins
Renault - Will have good car but struggle without Alonso
BMW - Potential race win and a few podiums
Red Bull - Some more podiums with Newey's car
Toyota - Little progress, might have some good results though
Williams - Decline continues without works support
Aguri - showed signs of spped at the end of last year, Sato and Ant will get some stong results
Torro Rosso- Not expecting to improve significantly
Spyker - continue to struggle :down:

[samuratt]

How about ( no matter who the drivers are, with such a crap car you are screwed )

:p :

I think it works in both ways! ;)

You can find a good example with Fishi: best car + poor driving = half the points of your teammate! :D

[samuratt]

How did those "crappy drivers" manage to take Toyota to 4th in the WCC in 2005?

If Honda, BMW or Red Bull fail this year, will you criticize the drivers? And if not, then how are the Toyota guys weaker? And I'm not even talking about raw speed, I'm talking about car development. I have heard rumours that Montoya is lazy, but I've never heard anyone complaining about Trulli's and Ralf's job outside GP races. IMO their testing skill might be one of the main reasons, why they have been given such a long contract. But you seem to insist with that those drivers Toyota is unable to develop anywhere.

And try to prove, how for example are the Williams drivers (who you predicted to finish 5th in the WCC) better than Yota's.

Well, let's get started:

First of all Toyota had a very good car at the beginning of that seasson. Jarno had three podiums in Barhein, Malasya and Spain... he never got back to the podium again... so i am afraid it was the car more than the driver the one who got the results. Further more we all know what happens to Jarno: it is impossible for him to keep the same pace all over the race.

Second, you say that their testing skills are so good which is why they got those contracts for so long... then how would you explain the crappy car they had in 2006??? i mean, if they were so good in testing they would have developed a a fast car. On the contrary their testing skill lead to a poor 2006 car and a crappy seasson... while having the tire war on his side.

And to sum up: YES, I DO ADMIT THAT WITH THOSE DRIVERS TOYOTA WILL NEVER GET ANYWHERE NEAR THE TOP THREE... you have your proof on the 2005 seasson when they started really good, with a fast car, but they were very unconsistants with their results.

I think that to be succesful in f1 you need to things:

A fast car (the responsible for that are the engineers)
And a very good driver (responsible for developing the car and getting the maximum result you can obtain with the car).

TOYOTA, actually, haven't any of both!

[Ranger]

A fast car (the responsible for that are the engineers)
And a very good driver (responsible for developing the car and getting the maximum result you can obtain with the car).

TOYOTA, actually, haven't any of both!

I do think the car is worse than the drivers. I don't think new drivers would improve the team at all.

[jens]

Well, let's get started:

First of all Toyota had a very good car at the beginning of that seasson. Jarno had three podiums in Barhein, Malasya and Spain... he never got back to the podium again... so i am afraid it was the car more than the driver the one who got the results. Further more we all know what happens to Jarno: it is impossible for him to keep the same pace all over the race.

Second, you say that their testing skills are so good which is why they got those contracts for so long... then how would you explain the crappy car they had in 2006??? i mean, if they were so good in testing they would have developed a a fast car. On the contrary their testing skill lead to a poor 2006 car and a crappy seasson... while having the tire war on his side.

And to sum up: YES, I DO ADMIT THAT WITH THOSE DRIVERS TOYOTA WILL NEVER GET ANYWHERE NEAR THE TOP THREE... you have your proof on the 2005 seasson when they started really good, with a fast car, but they were very unconsistants with their results.

I think that to be succesful in f1 you need to things:

A fast car (the responsible for that are the engineers)
And a very good driver (responsible for developing the car and getting the maximum result you can obtain with the car).

TOYOTA, actually, haven't any of both!

What concerns 2005, then more likely the competitiveness of the car deteriorated during the season. In Toyota's case it has not the driver's problem, it has always been the team's problem at least so far that they have been unable to prepare a decent car throughout seasons. At the start of the season Trulli lost ~10-20 seconds to Alonso by the end of the race. At the end of the season it was closer to a lap and both drivers fought for the last point positions. Do you truly believe that the difference between driver skills is a full lap? It might be one rare case, but not a consistent case. But in 2005 it was a consistent phenomenon that Toyota gradually dropped backwards, which is not exponible with driver's speed.

I don't know, how do you rate the drivers of other teams, but there have been other remarkable inconsistencies in competitiveness during seasons: Williams & Honda in 2006, Williams & BAR in 2005, McLaren in 2004. Which one of them do you put drivers as responsible for that and in which case the team?

What concerns 2006, then it is probably too simple criticize just the drivers - they are part of developing the car, but not the only one. To achieve decent results, every nuance has to be in right place. We have loads of example from the past, when acknowledged decent drivers have struggled with weak machinery.
What did Toyota have for 2006?
Crap engine. According to Albers that was one of the main reasons, why Spyker moved on for Ferrari engines. And for example at Monza - where engine has vital importance - they were really struggling and IMO Trulli did great job there to finish even 7th. It seemed that they tried to take out all of that mediocre engine and that's why they had so many engine changes last year.
Crap chassis. Early launch date and chassis build for Michelins.
Crap reliability.

Taken into account all those disadvantages, then it even seems amazing, how competitive Toyota was at some races (like USA, FRA). It was their first season with Bridgestone's, first season with V8 engines. OK, quite a young team and we can forgive them their inexperience with V8's and B's... and expect that they have got more experience by now. Let's put it that way that they had a wrong approach for 2006.

And now three questions and for the first one I haven't got an answer yet.
If Honda, BMW, RBR or whoever (even from the current Top3) fails this year, will you criticize the drivers for not being able to develop the car?

How do you explain that before joining Toyota Jarno and Ralf managed to step up so well against their still highly rated team-mates?

And finally - you said that Toyota has none of them (fast car and good drivers), but you also said that in 2005 Toyota had a very good car, so why shouldn't they build something like that again?

[agwiii]

For me it was more a matter that two of the top three teams have complete F1 rookies on them. Rookies usually make mistakes and will miss out in points in some of the early races.

:up:

[jens]

I think Renault will have a very bad year. The centre of gravity of the Renault has traditionally been further towards the rear than in other cars, but that will really hurt next year, if reports about the 2007 Bridgestones are to be believed. Drivers and engineers alike report that they are much less grippy than last year's tyres, and that this loss of grip is particularly pronounced in the fronts. Bridgestone's technical people admit that the more conservative construction of the 2007 tyres has hurt the fronts more than the rears, so cars with a forward centre of gravity are going to be at an advantage for a change.

How can Renault deal with this? Either they can completely change the concept of the car by moving its centre of gravity forward, to match Ferrari and McLaren, or they can move the centre of pressure forward by either increasing front wing angles of attack, or by the reduced use of flow conditioners which poach front downforce and transfer it rearward. But if they do either of those, they have a serious problem; the centre of pressure will be forward of the centre of gravity, which will lead to oversteer in fast corners.

Interesting point, to be honest.
But there is another aspect. Such an understeering car that suited Alonso's driving style does not suit Fisi at all, so now Renault nevertheless must move the gravity center forward. And in that case Fisi might surprise.

[jonny hurlock]

1. Ferrari
2. Honda
3. McLaren
4. BMW Sauber
5. Renault
6. Red Bull
7. Williams
8. Toyota
9. sypker Mf1
10 Toro Rosso
11 Super Aguri

[Eyo]

Not many of you think much about Toyota. Personally I think that they should have a good year. After all, there team is untouched.
And Honda, except the tires they are also in the same form. I support Honda so those are more like my hopes and a positive attitude for the new season. Just like every year...
From the top three teams of 06, my guess is that McLaren will be the strongest, then Ferrari. Renault with Fisi is not going to make any good.
Then BMW should be up there.
I will try to put a list together.

Honda (of course they are my favorites :D )
McLaren
Toyota
BMW
Ferrari
Renault
Red Bull
Williams
Aguri
STR
Spyker

[stevie_gerrard]

1 Ferrari
2 Honda :)
3 BMW
4= Renault
4= Mclaren
6 Red Bull
7 Williams :(
8 Toyota
9 STR
10 Spyker
11 Super Aguri (with 1 point :p : )

[jens]

OK. Put something by myself to here as well before the launches of new models and the decisive winter tests. A conservative order:

1. Ferrari
2. Renault
3. McLaren
4.-6. Honda/BMW/Toyota
7. RBR (probably pretty close to the places ahead)
8. Williams
9. Super Aguri
10. Spyker
11. STR

We shouldn't expect too radical changes as there are not many rule changes (before 1998 and 2003-2006 were and then was saw remarkable changes)

[agwiii]

Ferrari
McLaren
BMW Sauber
Renault
Scuderia Toro Rosso
Red Bull
Honda
Williams
Toyota
sypker Mf1
Super Aguri

[smiley_opc]

ferrari
(gap)
mclaren
renault
(gap)
honda
bmw
redbull
toyota
(gap)
spyker
STR
williams
aguri

[jens]

Not many of you think much about Toyota.

Actually that's simple. As there are many strong teams in F1, it's tough to prefer one to another. And if one should in such topic put quite same-levelled teams in order, then usually personal preference plays huge role in such decisions. And you know, how "popular" Toyota is...

[Cozzie]

McLaren 8.5/10
Ferrari 8.5/10
Honda 8.5/10
Renault 7/10
BMW 7/10
Red Bull 6.5/10
Toyota 6/10
STR 5/10
Williams 5/10
Spyker 4/10
Super Aguri 4/10

[Gannex]

[A]n understeering car that suited Alonso's driving style does not suit Fisi at all, so now Renault nevertheless must move the gravity center forward. And in that case Fisi might surprise.
But jens, I really don't think it's possible, at this late stage of development, to change the centre of gravity of the car. You can tinker with some things, especially aerodynamics, but location of the centre of gravity is just one of those core decisions that is fixed very early in the design process. So as I see it, Renault are likely to be stuck with a car designed for last year's tyres, with their traditional rearward c of g, and it will be completely unmanageable on this year's vastly inferior rubber.

Another point, for those who say Ferrari will be at an advantage this year, due to their having had experience with Bridgestones. Don't believe it! Did you see Massa's comment, after the December tests? He said that the 2007 Bridgestones were so completely different to last year's tyres that any experience gained with Bridgestone was almost totally irrelevant. Everyone, regardless of which tyre they ran last year, is dealing with a completely new construction, and a very under-performing construction it is too. But the point he was making, that the playing field is level for everyone, is surely a valid one.

That's why Ferrari are at no advantage, in my view, Renault are in deep trouble, and only McLaren are positioned to benefit from this year's introduction of inferior, non-competitive tyres.

The other big change for 2007, apart from the tyres, is the rev limit on engines to 19,000 rpm. This, of course, limits power, putting an even greater premium on aerodynamic efficiency. We won't be seeing any massive wing angles to generate downforce, because they'll slow the cars down too much on straights. And the proliferation of winglets transferring efficient dowforce from front to rear will have to be halted, due to the front tyres' lack of grip. So teams will be forced to rely on ultra-efficient airflow management in their designs, with small air intakes being especially important. Look for those on car launches this month.

The primacy of aero efficiency will, I suspect, benefit Ferrari and Red Bull most, since they have the best aerodynamics teams -- on paper, at least. But BMW could be a dark horse here, since they've heavily invested in CFD to complement the world's greatest wind-tunnel -- that may enable them to spring a surprise in the realm of aero efficiency.

For those reasons, I put the serious teams in the following order:

1. McLaren
2. Ferrari
3. Renault
4. Red Bull
5. BMW
6. Toyota
7. Williams

[agwiii]

Gannex: Your essay seems as well founded as any other, since we are all working with very limited information, but I don't see how you ended up with McLaren at the top. I'm also mildly suprised you put Toyota over Williams. Of course, you could be right on all points! LOL

[Gannex]

agwii, you've rumbled me. I am, of course, doing no more than guessing!

Placing Williams so low hurts. I am a die-hard Williams fan, as you know, and would love nothing more than to see them at the front, but I'm having real trouble keeping the faith. My latest discouragement was reading what Mark Webber had to say about his time at Williams, how his relationship with Sir Frank deteriorated over the two years, and how his input was not taken seriously by the engineering staff. This really got me down, because it showed the team wasted Webber's talent. If they wasted Webber, they're probably wasting a lot of other people's talents as well, and there's certainly no shortage of people who claim that Williams consistently fails to get the best out of its personnel. I'm beginning, for the first time ever, to believe that those critics may have a point. That's why I put Williams so low.

Toyota, I think, has slightly better prospects. I think a lot of their problems last year were due to the stupid decision, made in Japan, for commercial reasons, to use Bridgestones for the 2006 campaign. The car was designed around Michelins and there was no time to completely re-design it, even with Toyota's massive resources. Hence you had the ridiculous spectacle of a Toyota with a central keel under the nose as a suspension mounting point, and nothing attached to it!! It beggared belief. No wonder Mike Gascoyne had trouble over there. But now, the legacy of that damaging tyre decision has had time to work itself out, and the car that they produce for 2007 will, at last, be an integrated design. I think it might surprise a few people.

[Ranger]

Placing Williams so low hurts. I am a die-hard Williams fan, as you know, and would love nothing more than to see them at the front, but I'm having real trouble keeping the faith. My latest discouragement was reading what Mark Webber had to say about his time at Williams, how his relationship with Sir Frank deteriorated over the two years, and how his input was not taken seriously by the engineering staff.

I never saw these claims... I understand that you know more than most about Williams but is there somewhere that would have these claims down?

Or as VB would put it...

Link please? :)

[Gannex]

Sorry, Malllen. I should have said where I had read that. It was in this week's Autosport, January 4 2007 issue, pages 23 to 25.

[Ranger]

Cheers. That warrants a trip to the newsagent tomorrow I think. :up:

[jens]

But jens, I really don't think it's possible, at this late stage of development, to change the centre of gravity of the car. You can tinker with some things, especially aerodynamics, but location of the centre of gravity is just one of those core decisions that is fixed very early in the design process. So as I see it, Renault are likely to be stuck with a car designed for last year's tyres, with their traditional rearward c of g, and it will be completely unmanageable on this year's vastly inferior rubber.

Have you got information that Renault still hasn't (or have recently) changed the centre of gravity of their car? Or what makes you think that they didn't do it already in an early phase of car development? Yeah, they couldn't test with Bridgestones before than late November, but couldn't they really deal with the problem earlier?

[agwiii]

agwii, you've rumbled me. I am, of course, doing no more than guessing!

Placing Williams so low hurts. I am a die-hard Williams fan, as you know, and would love nothing more than to see them at the front, but I'm having real trouble keeping the faith. My latest discouragement was reading what Mark Webber had to say about his time at Williams, how his relationship with Sir Frank deteriorated over the two years, and how his input was not taken seriously by the engineering staff. This really got me down, because it showed the team wasted Webber's talent. If they wasted Webber, they're probably wasting a lot of other people's talents as well, and there's certainly no shortage of people who claim that Williams consistently fails to get the best out of its personnel. I'm beginning, for the first time ever, to believe that those critics may have a point. That's why I put Williams so low.

Toyota, I think, has slightly better prospects. I think a lot of their problems last year were due to the stupid decision, made in Japan, for commercial reasons, to use Bridgestones for the 2006 campaign. The car was designed around Michelins and there was no time to completely re-design it, even with Toyota's massive resources. Hence you had the ridiculous spectacle of a Toyota with a central keel under the nose as a suspension mounting point, and nothing attached to it!! It beggared belief. No wonder Mike Gascoyne had trouble over there. But now, the legacy of that damaging tyre decision has had time to work itself out, and the car that they produce for 2007 will, at last, be an integrated design. I think it might surprise a few people.

Gannex -- I understand. Last year, we had a long discussion about William's prospects and I'm afraid their star seems to be sinking. I still wonder how long we'll see the Pat/Frank show, or if he really does intend to sell. Business suggests that Toyota MUST do better or they will be placed in the impossible position of quitting as a loser. Their drivers are so much better than their cars -- but that's another discussion.

I still don't see how you arrive at McLaren over Ferrari. Are you placing your faith in Fast Freddie, or ??

[agwiii]

But jens, I really don't think it's possible, at this late stage of development, to change the centre of gravity of the car

I missed this before. The cars are all built well under the minimum weight and use weights to adjust balance of the cars. Of course, this could not (I imagine) make HUGE changes in balance, but seems to be enough to move from oversteer to understeer. So of course you're right, but I think there is more to the story.

[ioan]

agwii, you've rumbled me. I am, of course, doing no more than guessing!

Placing Williams so low hurts. I am a die-hard Williams fan, as you know, and would love nothing more than to see them at the front, but I'm having real trouble keeping the faith. My latest discouragement was reading what Mark Webber had to say about his time at Williams, how his relationship with Sir Frank deteriorated over the two years, and how his input was not taken seriously by the engineering staff. This really got me down, because it showed the team wasted Webber's talent. If they wasted Webber, they're probably wasting a lot of other people's talents as well, and there's certainly no shortage of people who claim that Williams consistently fails to get the best out of its personnel. I'm beginning, for the first time ever, to believe that those critics may have a point. That's why I put Williams so low.

Toyota, I think, has slightly better prospects. I think a lot of their problems last year were due to the stupid decision, made in Japan, for commercial reasons, to use Bridgestones for the 2006 campaign. The car was designed around Michelins and there was no time to completely re-design it, even with Toyota's massive resources. Hence you had the ridiculous spectacle of a Toyota with a central keel under the nose as a suspension mounting point, and nothing attached to it!! It beggared belief. No wonder Mike Gascoyne had trouble over there. But now, the legacy of that damaging tyre decision has had time to work itself out, and the car that they produce for 2007 will, at last, be an integrated design. I think it might surprise a few people.

Back to agwiii's question regarding your previous post.
All you said is very logical but than why is McLaren top of the list?!

[F1boat]

Ferrari
Honda
Mclaren-Mercedes
Renault
Red Bull
Toyota
BMW
Williams
Spyker
STR

[Giuseppe F1]

Ferrari
Honda
Mclaren-Mercedes
Renault
Red Bull
Toyota
BMW
Williams
Spyker
STR

Have Super Aguri been disqualified?! :)

[F1boat]

Question is about Top Ten teams... :) I think that Aguri is overestimated.

[agwiii]

Ferrari
McLaren
BMW Sauber
Renault
Scuderia Toro Rosso
Red Bull
Honda
Williams
Toyota
sypker Mf1
Super Aguri

I made anothe pass through the eleven teams and made the following revisions. I place them in these groups based upon their 2006 performance, and any important changes for 2007.” Any resemblance between the group ids and grades is purely intentional.

Group A: Ferrari

Group B: McLaren, Renault

Group C: BMW Sauber, Honda

Group D: Scuderia Toro Rosso, Red Bull

Group F: Williams, Toyota

Group I: Sypker Mf1, Super Aguri

[agwiii]

Question is about Top Ten teams... :) I think that Aguri is overestimated.

I don't believe in Super Aguri! :)

[WelshLegend]

i have a sneaky feeling that Renault will give the big guns (alonso, Raikkonen etc) a run for their money and might just cause an upset here and there. Don't count them out just yet.

STR will be on a high after a good last season even though they were at the back of the grid. I expect them to be challenging the midfielders e.g Toyota, Williams. Plus the drivers know the team, car etc.

[rlenis]

I rate the teams in this order for the 07 season.

Ferrari
Renault
Mclaren
Toyota
BMW/Honda
RedBull/Williams
ToroRoso/Super Agury
Spyker

[jens]

If I take a look at your pre-testing predictions from today's perspective, then general judgement says that Honda and RBR have been the most overrated and BMW the most underrated team.

Another factor that astonishes me, is that conservative cars are always underrated. Why? McLaren and BMW are quite conservative, but they seem to be running well. Recall, how people were laughing at McLaren after their car launch, saying that defending 3rd spot in the WCC is the best they can do. At the same time more evolutionar cars like Renault and RBR seem more in trouble.

My new thoughts with less than one month to go. And I'm trying to foresense the overall standings by the end of the season, so don't shoot me if in the first races the rankings are different. :)
1. Ferrari: It's toughest to predict their form as usual, they have had their ups and downs, but so far they seem to be going according to plan with maybe slight troubles. Even if they don't win the drivers' title, then they still seem to be the main favourite for teams' one.

2. McLaren: They really have so many counterarguments for this season (new driver line-up, several vital engineers left last year), but in spite of that they seem to be good. Is the immediate effect of hiring Alonso and the engine freeze (Mercedes was last year struggling with V8, now they have a chance to make a catch-up) really so strong? But McLaren has often been a mysterious team, being able to be inexplicably good or weak (like in 2004). That's McLaren. :)

3. Renault: Their driver side has been criticized, but it really seems that not everything is quite right with the car, which is a bit surprising to me, 'cause I think they have one of the best and well-structured aerodynamics team (as even the departure of Gascoyne did not harm them at all). But their struggles haven't looked so serious as Honda's or RBR's. Also the team has proved themselves as a double World Champion and being able to build winning cars. I think they are one of the teams, who will perform better than winter testing shows.

4. BMW: On a couple of occasions they have gone very light, but they also seem generally quick with minor gremlins. I am not among those, who think they'll be challenging for the title. They might score a few podiums though and maybe even a win in suitable conditions.

5. Honda: Haven't been very convincing, even in Bahrain and I doubt if I start to nominate them as title candidates even if they dominate in remaining test days. But they seem gradually getting over their woes, which seems to be just enough for a couple of podium places - like in the last two years (all in all two and three respectively).

6. Toyota: The team with a questionmark. They may have a weak start again, but I suppose that in most races they are able to drive and fight in point positions like last year. More likely I'm worried about their reliability and strategy, which has often been their heel of Achilles.

7.-8. RBR: Now that's a tough call. I suspect they will have some good races as well, but... fail to fight consistently in point positions.

7.-8. Williams: I put them onto equal level with RBR, although I think that in the overall standings RBR will have better outlooks. Last year was the same - Williams was shining in winter testing, but then gradually dropped backwards and to 8th spot. But... if they can be reliable this season, they even may score more points than last year. At the start of the season they seem to be able to score points without needing other's unluck, but probably they start dropping backwards as the season progresses.

From the last three teams maybe Super Aguri has been most promising in testing. But Spyker lost less than a second a lap to Williams a couple of days back at Barcelona, which isn't a bad sign either. STR maybe seems to be struggling most with engine and inability to nominate drivers...

All in all. In several team's cases I have drawn quite similar scenarios to last year's.

If you have something to argue about, then have a go.

[Stuartf12007]

Ferrari
Mclaren
Renault
Honda
BMW
Red Bull
Toyota
William
STR
Aguri
Spyker

[sezix]

I'm not going to list anyone but BMW are my dark horse. With their resources they made a big but gradual change to Sauber which is what they lacked.
Kubica is my dark horse also for this year.
Would be nice to see a Ferrari and Mclaren battle again. :D
Renault I can see falling down the ladder, Alonso was a big part of their success just as Michael was with Benetton.
Williams unfortunately the new Tyrell...

[Mekola]

Ferrari
McLaren
Renault
Honda
BMW
Toyota
Williams
Red Bull
STR
Super Aguri
Spyker

[DazzlaF1]

McLaren - My tip for both titles, Alonso should relish the new surroundings and having the world champ as teammate is great for Hamilton

Ferrari - Kimi's looked blindingly quick and Massa's not far off his pace either, genuine challengers me thinks

Honda - Button hopefully should carry on the momentum and challenge more for race wins, Rubens should get his first win in Honda colours this season as well.

BMW Sauber - I would'nt be surprised in the slightest if they broke into the top 4, even Massa's given them a thumbs up saying that they'll be the team to beat.

Williams - My dark horse, they've looked great in pre season so far, expect them to pick up 1 or 2 podium finishes.

Renault - Without Alonso, i think they'll struggle this year

Toyota - Same engine as Williams but i think Williams have the better car, could struggle again along with Renault

Super Aguri - Thankfully for them they have a driver pairing that have worked well together in the past, this should help them to a good few points finishes.

Red Bull - DC and Webber both said they've struggled in testing so far, and i fear that last seasons struggles could be repeated

STR - Same line-up as last season, should see an improvement in their points total, but not by a lot

Spyker - For me, their driver line-up just doesnt look strong enough

[ioan]

McLaren - My tip for both titles, Alonso should relish the new surroundings and having the world champ as teammate is great for Hamilton

Ferrari - Kimi's looked blindingly quick and Massa's not far off his pace either, genuine challengers me thinks

Honda - Button hopefully should carry on the momentum and challenge more for race wins, Rubens should get his first win in Honda colours this season as well.

BMW Sauber - I would'nt be surprised in the slightest if they broke into the top 4, even Massa's given them a thumbs up saying that they'll be the team to beat.

Williams - My dark horse, they've looked great in pre season so far, expect them to pick up 1 or 2 podium finishes.

Renault - Without Alonso, i think they'll struggle this year

Toyota - Same engine as Williams but i think Williams have the better car, could struggle again along with Renault

Super Aguri - Thankfully for them they have a driver pairing that have worked well together in the past, this should help them to a good few points finishes.

Red Bull - DC and Webber both said they've struggled in testing so far, and i fear that last seasons struggles could be repeated

STR - Same line-up as last season, should see an improvement in their points total, but not by a lot

Spyker - For me, their driver line-up just doesnt look strong enough

You could become an F1 journo.

[harsha]

Mclaren
Ferrari
BMW Sauber
Honda
Renault
Toyota
Williams
RedBull
Super Aguri
STR
Spyker

[K-Pu]

Two things:

My list of predictions and an overall ranking.
I´ve given 11 points to the 1st, 10 tho the snd and so on. In case of teams having the same ranking in someone´s predictions I take both (or three) teams´ points and then I divide by 2 (or 3). In case of teams having the same amounts of poins in the final ranking, the one with more higher points wins.

My predictions:

1.- Ferrari
2.- McLaren
3.- Renault
4.- Honda
5.- BMW
6.- Williams
7.- Toyota
8.- Red Bull
9.- Super Aguri
10.- Spyker
11.- STR

And the ranking...

1.- Ferrari (286 points)
2.- McLaren (251,5 points)
3.- Renault (222 points)
4.- Honda (217,5 points)
5.- BMW (179 points)
6.- Toyota (141,5 points)
7.- Red Bull (140,5 points)
8.- Williams (125 points)
9.- STR (66,5 points)
10.- Super Aguri (54,5 points)
11.- Spyker (43 points)

[Big Ben]

1. Mclaren
2 - 11. the rest of them.
Williams and Spyker above STR and Super Aguri. (wishes)

[K-Pu]

I forgot saying that what I posted is what you heve voted...

[ratonmacias]

Two things:

My list of predictions and an overall ranking.
I´ve given 11 points to the 1st, 10 tho the snd and so on. In case of teams having the same ranking in someone´s predictions I take both (or three) teams´ points and then I divide by 2 (or 3). In case of teams having the same amounts of poins in the final ranking, the one with more higher points wins.

My predictions:

1.- Ferrari
2.- McLaren
3.- Renault
4.- Honda
5.- BMW
6.- Williams
7.- Toyota
8.- Red Bull
9.- Super Aguri
10.- Spyker
11.- STR

And the ranking...

1.- Ferrari (286 points)
2.- McLaren (251,5 points)
3.- Renault (222 points)
4.- Honda (217,5 points)
5.- BMW (179 points)
6.- Toyota (141,5 points)
7.- Red Bull (140,5 points)
8.- Williams (125 points)
9.- STR (66,5 points)
10.- Super Aguri (54,5 points)
11.- Spyker (43 points)

wow i was thinking about doing that but i have been short of time lately.

lets see after each race how the perception of the fans at a message board and the reality get along with each other when we see the standings.

[Placid]

My predictions:

1 - Felipe and Kimi will gallop golden horseshoes.
2 - Al and Lewis will also have wins and plenty of podiums.
3 - Jenson and Ruby suprise the grid with 3 wins.
4 - "Heidi" and "Rubik's Kube" expect 2nds. "Kube" with 2 wins.
5 - Super Dave and Marky Mark see Red - 1 win each.
6 - Fisi and Heikki will struggle with podiums.
7 - Malf Ralf and Cookie Jar will have 10 DNF.
8 - Tony and Speedy mix of Frosted Flakes and Cheese will gather at least 1 podium.
9 - Nico and Alexis' Toyotas will suffer the Willies.
10 - Davidson is the only scorer for "The Super".
11 - Same for Zoot Sutil for Spike.


Final outcome as WCC: Ferrari in 15 rounds.

[raikk]

1)Mclaren
2)Ferrari
3)BMW (vast improvement)
4)Renault
5.)Honda
6)Williams
the rest......

[ratonmacias]

Two things:

My list of predictions and an overall ranking.
I´ve given 11 points to the 1st, 10 tho the snd and so on. In case of teams having the same ranking in someone´s predictions I take both (or three) teams´ points and then I divide by 2 (or 3). In case of teams having the same amounts of poins in the final ranking, the one with more higher points wins.

My predictions:

1.- Ferrari
2.- McLaren
3.- Renault
4.- Honda
5.- BMW
6.- Williams
7.- Toyota
8.- Red Bull
9.- Super Aguri
10.- Spyker
11.- STR

And the ranking...

1.- Ferrari (286 points)
2.- McLaren (251,5 points)
3.- Renault (222 points)
4.- Honda (217,5 points)
5.- BMW (179 points)
6.- Toyota (141,5 points)
7.- Red Bull (140,5 points)
8.- Williams (125 points)
9.- STR (66,5 points)
10.- Super Aguri (54,5 points)
11.- Spyker (43 points)

and now the final rankings based on performance not counting that mclaren got 0 points. first column is what they got and second column is what we expected.

ferrari (1)-------(1) what we expected
mclaren (2)-------(2) what we expected
bmw (3)-------(5) leap on performance
renault (4)-------(3) more or less what we expected
williams (5)-------(8) williams was so underrated
red bull (6)-------(7) more or less what we expected
toyota (7)-------(6) more or less what we expected
toro rosso (8)-------(9) more or less what we expected
honda (9)-------(4) honda is so overrated
super aguri (10)------(10) what we expected
spyker (11)------(11) what we expected


now lets make a new thread for 2008 and in a year we will se how we do.