Final race points math

[janneppi]

With Hamilton not finishing and Kimi winning, things leveled out a bit.

Here's the possible points for final WDC standings for the top three
H 117 115 113 112 111 110 109 108 107
A 113 111 109 108 107 106 105 104 103
R 110 108 106 105 104 103 102 101 100

Wins before Brazil
H 4
A 4
K 5

Makes for some intersting calculations. :)

[Mark]

On ITV they said that lewis needed to finish 3rd with an Alonso win. But by my calculations that would make Alonso champ.

[janneppi]

R=Räikkönen
H=Hamilton
A=Alonso
x=any driver
May contain errors with points tie situations
Hamilton wins
1.R
2.A
3.x
4.x
5.H
6.x
7.x
8.x

or
1.A
2.H
3.x
4.x
5.x
6.x
7.x
8.x

Alonso wins
1.A
2.x
3.H
4.x
5.x
6.x
7.x
8.x

or
1.R
2.A
3.x
4.x
5.x
6.H
7.x
8.x

Kimi wins
1.R
2.x
3.A
4.x
5.x
6.H
7.x
8.x

[PSfan]

With Hamilton not finishing and Kimi winning, things leveled out a bit.

Here's the possible points for final WDC standings for the top three
H 117 115 113 112 111 110 109 108 107
A 113 111 109 108 107 106 105 104 103
R 110 108 106 105 104 103 102 101 100

Wins before Brazil
H 4
A 4
K 5

Makes for some intersting calculations. :)

Wow, someone is taking this title fight very seriously :p :

Great... now I'll be hoping for Kimi to finish 2nd, Alonso 4th and Hamilton 8th just for the novelty of a 3 way tie at the end of the season... wonder what are the chances :cheese:

[janneppi]

Wow, someone is taking this title fight very seriously :p :

Great... now I'll be hoping for Kimi to finish 2nd, Alonso 4th and Hamilton 8th just for the novelty of a 3 way tie at the end of the season... wonder what are the chances :cheese:
Kimi already has 5 wins so he would win it in the end. :)

[jens]

Hamilton needs nothing else than just keeping himself behind Alonso and drive safely. He doesn't need to make a risky setup (like arguably in Turkey) and doesn't need to take any risks (in fighting for positions - unless he is too much behind Alonso). I think he can keep Alonso's pace, but he has enormous pressure on him.

It would be absolutely extraordinary if McLarens break down in the last race having had no mechanically-related retirements so far this year...

[gm99]

Without wanting to start another conspiracy theory, I would think that one Mr Bernie E. must be a very happy man today: A three-way-battle, including a young Brit, for the championship in the ultimate round of the season to be held at European prime time - what more could you possibly want?

[janneppi]

There's enough conspiracy theories already, let's keep them away from here.

[Giuseppe F1]

Points going into Interlagos:

107 - Lewis Hamilton
103 - Fernando Alonso
100 - Kimi Raikkonen

Have any of the F1 sites produced anything to this effect yet or indeed has anyone here done there own mathematics on how things need to pan out in Brazil for each of the drivers for them to be crowned champion...

...i.e.: If Kimi wins, for Kimi to be champ, Alonso has to finish X or lower and Lewis has to finish Y or lower etc, etc,


Just wondering if anything like this is out there yet?

Thanks in advance

Giuseppe F1

[janneppi]

Just wondering if anything like this is out there yet?

Yes, there is. :)

[leopard]

Kimi already has 5 wins so he would win it in the end. :)
He should have taken the lead over the 4 wins :)

[fatgav]

I sat down last night and worked out the permutations with a spreadsheet. This list shows for each driver, if they finished in a certain position, where the other drivers would have to finish in order for them to be crowned Champ...

Hamilton to Win
1st - Champ whatever
2nd - Champ whatever
3rd - Alonso 2nd or lower
4th - Alonso 2nd or lower
5th - Alonso 2nd or lower (Ham more 5th places)
6th - Alosno 3rd or lower,Kimi 2nd or lower
7th - Alosno 3rd or lower (Ham more 2nd places),Kimi 2nd or lower
8th - Alosno 4th or lower (Ham more 2nd places),Kimi 3rd or lower
<8th- Alosno 4th or lower (Ham more 2nd places),Kimi 3rd or lower

Alonso to Win
1st - Ham 3rd or lower (Alonso more wins)
2nd - Ham 6th or lower
3rd - Ham 8th or lower, Kimi 2nd or lower
4th - Ham 9th or lower, Kimi 3rd or lower
5th - Can't be champ
6th - Can't be champ
7th - Can't be champ
8th - Can't be champ
<8th- Can't be champ

Raikonnen to Win
1st - Ham 6th or lower (Kimi more wins), Alonso 3rd or lower
2nd - Ham 8th or lower (Kimi more wins), Alonso 4th or lower (Kimi more wins)
3rd - Can't be champ
4th - Can't be champ
5th - Can't be champ
6th - Can't be champ
7th - Can't be champ
8th - Can't be champ
<8th- Can't be champ

This is clear as I think I can make things. Look at the scenario for Alonso 2nd and Hamilton 5th, who would have thought number of fifths would be so important! Never mind, better than if they had the same number of 5th, 6th, 7th,... then if they were tied they go to "Any criteria the FIA decide" to determine the champion. Alas that is not a possibility, thank goodness!

PS. Yes, I'm new here. I'm a long time McLaren fan and therefore it will be no suprise that I would like Lewis to win. If not, then despite my hatred for Ferrari, it has to be Kimi. Alonso comes last obviously.

[ATF]

...i.e.: If Kimi wins, for Kimi to be champ, Alonso has to finish X or lower and Lewis has to finish Y or lower etc, etc,

Just wondering if anything like this is out there yet?


Realistically Kimi has to win the race to have any chance of the title with Alonso no higher than 3rd and Lewis no higher than 6th. If he finishes second behind a McLaren it's lost and he wouldn't finish second behind Massa if there was still a chance of the title.

That's a great list fatgav - going to print it out and stick it in front of me for the race. Realistically though without any reliability problems, they will all finish in the top 4, so it will probably be between the 2 McLarens - but anything can happen...

[ArrowsFA1]

The last time we had a 3-way fight for the title going to the final race was in 1986. Then the standings going to that race were:

Nigel Mansell - 70pts
Alain Prost - 64pts
Nelson Piquet - 63pts

Prost was the winner. Time to put some money on Alonso :confused: :dozey:

[Mark]

I'm expecting James Allen to go "And LOOK AT THAT ... out ... that ... and colossal ... it.. that's Hamilton ... that is LEWIS HAMILTON "

[hermituforest]

sunny,mp4-22 better than f2007,lh to win 99.99%,fernando 0.009%,kimi 0.001;
sunny,f2007 better than mp4-22,fernando 40%,kimi 20%,lh 40%
rainy,fa 33.33%,kr 33.33%,lh 33.33%

[Mark]

I'm sure that means something :p

[janneppi]

Personally, I expect the final points to be
Hamilton 112
Räikkönen 110
Alonso 109
I can't see anyone else mixing with the top four guys unless Alonso pulls a "miracle" in the first corner. ;)

[markabilly]

Personally, I expect the final points to be
Hamilton 112
Räikkönen 110
Alonso 109
I can't see anyone else mixing with the top four guys unless Alonso pulls a "miracle" in the first corner. ;)

Close, but my bet is;

H 112
KR-110 (for 1st place)
Alsono-111 (for second place)


Second alternative:

If H does not finish,
KR-110
FA-111

Third alternative

FM must displace Alonso from second behind Kimi, then

KR 110
FA 109

but not likely


If I were Hamilton, I would ignore this run behind stuff, and drive to win....otherwise wandering around focused on finishing in the pack might lead to some problems....besides for real men, the game ought to be winner of the race take all,

(Colin Edwards motto at his last big Superbike championship finale with Bayliss, although it was Bayliss who suggested it, and Colin who agreed--the last race was one of the truly best, that put F1 in the shade that year.....but there is not a couple of tough Aussie/Texan types here for Brazil Gp/WDC...)

[truefan72]

I just got my ticket confirmation to Brazil.

I decided that I wanted to be there for this one.
pulled a few strings, but I'll be there,

bringing my calculator as well :)

and my laptop

[W8&amp;C]

Imagine KR being 1st in Brazil with FA being 5th and LH following 6th. Finishing in that order would mean KR to win the Championship. Do you think FA would pull over to donate LH his 5th place so the rookie could win the WDC?

[ShiftingGears]

Imagine KR being 1st in Brazil with FA being 5th and LH following 6th. Finishing in that order would mean KR to win the Championship. Do you think FA would pull over to donate LH his 5th place so the rookie could win the WDC?

Definitely not!

[made_in_canada]

It would be absolutely extraordinary if McLarens break down in the last race having had no mechanically-related retirements so far this year...

... i can't wait for the inevitable to happen :S too bad it wouldn't happen this season :D

[Caroline]

Personally, I expect the final points to be
Hamilton 112
Räikkönen 110
Alonso 109
I can't see anyone else mixing with the top four guys unless Alonso pulls a "miracle" in the first corner. ;)


I agree...or unless it rains again ;)

[Dave B]

I've taken fatgav's excellent maths and produced this print-out-and-keep sheet to stare at on Sunday - hope it's useful:

http://www.btccinfo.co.uk/forum/f1_maths.PNG

[J4MIE]

Great stuff Dave :up:

[Valve Bounce]

Imagine KR being 1st in Brazil with FA being 5th and LH following 6th. Finishing in that order would mean KR to win the Championship. Do you think FA would pull over to donate LH his 5th place so the rookie could win the WDC?


Not for all the rice in China. :rolleyes: