Let's play some maths about the final WDC and WCC positions

[ioan]

Many people are already wondering which driver will Ferrari favor for the title.

Taking a look to the standings with 5 races left we have:

1. LH 84 points
2. FA 79 points
3. FM 69 points
4. KR 68 points

The only reasonable way for one of the Ferrari drivers to win the WDC this season is for them to be 1-2 in every one of the 5 remaining races.
The other possibilities involve bad luck needed for the McLaren duo and I can't take that into account.

So if Ferrari are to take 1-2 in every remaining race who should the team favor?!

The answer is they need not favor any of them.
One of the Ferrari drivers wins the WDC if they take 1-2 in each of the last 5 races! And ofcourse the team gets the WCC title. ;)

On the other hand if one of them has bad luck in one of the races than the other will have a substantial advantage and this will answer the question.

If both of them have equal bad luck than they are almost for sure out of contention for the WDC title.

This is why J. Todt isn't pressed to impose any team orders in favor of any of his drivers.
All the team needs to do is to ensure they have a car capable of getting 1-2 at the remaining races! :D

[GP-M3]

The other possibilities involve bad luck needed for the McLaren duo and I can't take that into account.


I'm with you (except the nastiness towards Kimi (mathS)) nobody deserves to be WDC more than him, who has fought for it valiantly twice in the last few years.

But I do hope those damn Macs, who couldn't hold toghther for anything these last several years and are suddenly finishing every lap. (Damn 19,000 rpm rev limit) One or two of these races I hope to see one or both not finishing at all.

I maintain that FA is the luckiest driver on the grid. Hardly anything ever happens to him, and when something minor does, something else seems to almost always lift him up... So, I'm hoping one of those famous to explode Merc engines does pretty soon, and not during friday practice! LOL

The sooner the better too.. to keep hopes alive and make the last races more intense and interesting.

[kalasend]

1. LH 84 points
2. FA 79 points
3. FM 69 points
4. KR 68 points

...........................................

So if Ferrari are to take 1-2 in every remaining race who should the team favor?!

The answer is they need not favor any of them.
One of the Ferrari drivers wins the WDC if they take 1-2 in each of the last 5 races! And ofcourse the team gets the WCC title. ;)
.....................


Really? Let me validate:

Assuming LH will be the better of the McLaren's yet behind both Ferrari's, ie. 3rd for all of the remaining 5 races, his final points = 114. With this,

- for KR, he needs at least 3 wins out of 5 races(which would award him final points = 114 + more wins than LH) in order to be solid WDC

- for FM, he also needs at least 3 wins out of 5 races(which would award him final points = 115) in order to be solid WDC

- If Ferrari drivers take 1-2 in each race, one of them must have at least 3 wins.

Of course, we can always pray for:
- bad luck to LH
- somewhat good luck to FA(but not so good as to be ahead of KR/FM)
- BMW to rob points from McLaren

[ioan]

Really? Let me validate:

Assuming LH will be the better of the McLaren's yet behind both Ferrari's, ie. 3rd for all of the remaining 5 races, his final points = 114. With this,

- for KR, he needs at least 3 wins out of 5 races(which would award him final points = 114 + more wins than LH) in order to be solid WDC

- for FM, he also needs at least 3 wins out of 5 races(which would award him final points = 115) in order to be solid WDC

- If Ferrari drivers take 1-2 in each race, one of them must have at least 3 wins.

Of course, we can always pray for:
- bad luck to LH
- somewhat good luck to FA(but not so good as to be ahead of KR/FM)
- BMW to rob points from McLaren

Thanks for the validation! :up:
I was to lazy to write it all down! ;)

[tinchote]

Of course, we are all assumming that the four drivers will finish all races near the front. That could be the case, but stranger things have happened... :)

[Hawkmoon]

We are also assuming that Ferrari will be able to finish ahead of McLaren at all the remaining races. Realistically, that's not going to happen. McLaren where too close to Ferrari in Turkey for my liking. The Ferrari's should have left the McLaren's standing but didn't. I think this means that Monza and Spa are not as easy races for Ferrari as some were predicting.

As much as it pains me to say it, I don't think Ferrari can win the WDC without a DNF or non-scoring race from Hamilton. The can win the WCC but only if McLaren don't get their Hungary points back. If McLaren's appeal is successful then Ferrari will need at least 1 if not 2 McLaren DNFs to have a chance there too.

Ferrari have made too many mistakes this year and it has come back and bitten them on the behind!

[Garry Walker]

Lets look at the remaining races:
Monza - Will be extremely close, a possible challenge from BMW to the top teams. If anyone has an advantage, it will be McLaren.
Spa - A must win for Ferrari, in fact, a must 1-2 for them. I reckon it will be possible.
Fuji - Unknown territory, the track has parts which suit the Ferrari and parts which suit the McLaren.
Shanghai - Probably the best race out of the remaining races for McLaren, I reckon they will be the best there.
Interlagos - Can go either way, much like Fuji.

I agree with Hawkmoon, Ferraris advantage at Turkey in racepace was pretty much non-existant (in qualy, the McLaren was actually faster), that is a worry considering it was supposed to be best for them and worst for McLaren.

One thing to note is that LH can allow a DNF and still easily be in the contention. Even Alonso has that chance. But for Ferraris drivers it will be the end of their title-challenge if they have any problems at all. Considering the reliability problems Ferrari has had this year, I would be almost shocked if both KR and FM had no technical problems again in this year.

[ioan]

I prefer to remain optimist about their chances! :)

[Drew]

Good luck to them all, I just hope it doesn't end up in team tactics and team decisions.

[Garry Walker]

Good luck to them all, I just hope it doesn't end up in team tactics and team decisions.

Monaco 2007.

[wmcot]

Then there's the possibility of all 4 taking themselves out at the first turn of each of the remaining races and NH would be WDC! ;)

[Ranger]

If team orders are imposed, there is always a risk that the plan will backfire as a mechanical DNF or otherwise (this could be argued about Ferrari in 1999).
Ferrari have got to go to extreme efforts to fix the mechanical problems that have hindered their contention this season, let both of their drivers go open slather and pray for devine intervention to stop the charge of the McLarens.

[ArrowsFA1]

Monaco 2007.
:rolleyes: Let's play top trumps - Turkey 2007 :p


Good luck to them all, I just hope it doesn't end up in team tactics and team decisions.
At some point both teams may have to favour one driver over the other to ensure the best outcome for the team, but given that things are so close between all four drivers Todt and Dennis would have a tough job managing such a situation.

Things are clear cut when one driver has been ruled out of contention for the WDC, but at the moment it looks as if all four drivers will be fighting it out until the final race.

[F1MAN2007]

To be honest I don't see Ferrari finishing 1 & 2 in all remaining races. At least LH or FA one will brake into the Ferrari if not in Monza, but sure in Spa. Imagine 1 & 2 of Mcs in one of the following races?!

For the WDC, it is between again Mcs drivers.If LH is unlucky, FA will be lucky or vise versa.

Not undermining the potential of Ferrari, but in what they plan, they need as well a certain portion of lucky to take at least one crown home.

[jso1985]

Monaco 2007.


:rolleyes: Let's play top trumps - Turkey 2007 :p



Brazil 2007! ;)

[Hondo]

Whats really twisted is that Massa could finish first in the next 5 races, giving him 8 wins on the season and Hamilton, with three wins, if he finishes in second place in the next 5 races would still be the WDC. There's just something wrong with that.

If something like that happens, there will be a huge outcry to modify the points system again.

[tinchote]

Whats really twisted is that Massa could finish first in the next 5 races, giving him 8 wins on the season and Hamilton, with three wins, if he finishes in second place in the next 5 races would still be the WDC. There's just something wrong with that.


Could be. It would be: Massa, 8 wins, 2 seconds, and 2 thirds; Hamilton, 3 wins, 9 seconds and 3 thirds.



If something like that happens, there will be a huge outcry to modify the points system again.

Like there was when MS won the championship with several races to spare. Knee-jerk reactions will not go away.

[Trqster]

Even tough I'm a big Hamilton fan, I reckon he'll crack under the imense pressure of fighting for WDC title on the first season and start doing mistakes on the last few races - so I'll say that Alonso will grab the title at the end.
Ferrari drivers stand no chance to grab WDC title this year...unless a miracle happens...

[wmcot]

Whats really twisted is that Massa could finish first in the next 5 races, giving him 8 wins on the season and Hamilton, with three wins, if he finishes in second place in the next 5 races would still be the WDC. There's just something wrong with that.

If something like that happens, there will be a huge outcry to modify the points system again.

Rosberg (Keke, not Nico) did it with 1 win in 1982.

Wins 1982:
Rosberg - 1
Prost - 2
Lauda - 2
Pironi - 2
Watson - 2
Patrese - 1
Piquet - 1
Arnoux - 2
Tambay - 1
de Angelis - 1
Alboreto - 1

[ShiftingGears]

And Hawthorn in 1958.

Brooks - 3
Moss - 4
Trintignant - 1
Collins - 1
Hawthorn - 1
Bryan - 1

[Hondo]

I appreciate the examples from 1958 and 1982 and realize it can happen, but we are talking about a difference of 1 race victory in both cases.

I can hear it now....and with 3 wins I give you the 2007 WDC and nipping at his heels with 8 wins I give you the second place driver.......huh? 8 wins to 3 and still didn't win? That is a substanial difference and if happens, theres going to be some screaming. If Hamilton wins the wdc on points but Alonso has more wins, we are going to hear about that too, especially from Alonso.

[ClarkFan]

Could be. It would be: Massa, 8 wins, 2 seconds, and 2 thirds; Hamilton, 3 wins, 9 seconds and 3 thirds.

Like there was when MS won the championship with several races to spare. Knee-jerk reactions will not go away.

Tin, could you just possibly be referring to the decision to scrap 10-6-4-3-2-1, for the "all the children are above average" quasi-NA$CAR scoring we have now? :\

BTW, if the drivers were getting points on the old system, the result of those placings is Massa - 100 points, Hamilton - 96 points. Make wins count for more!

ClarkFan

P.S. There have been a number of seasons where the driver with the most wins didn't win the title. Ones I recall include: 1964 Clark - 3, Surtees - 2; 1967 Clark - 4, Hulme - 2; 1977 Andretti - 4, Lauda - 3; 1984 Prost - 6, Lauda - 3; 1987 Mansell - 6, Piquet -3; and I'm pretty sure that Senns outwon Prost in 1989 but don't recall the tally. But an 8-3 advantage would be nearly unprecedented and really only matched by Moss-Hawthorn in 1958.

[Hondo]

Geeeez Bernie, talk about bringing the sport into disrepute, your first place guy had 3 wins and your second place guy had 8 wins? Uh, how do you work your math over there in F1 land? You can bet they are, as we type, sweating this thing out and hope it doesn't happen this year so they can fix it for next year.

[ArrowsFA1]

The points system is what it is. Everyone knows how it works.

[Trqster]

I like the current points system...the most consistent and reliable wins the WDC. IMO the only thing that could be added was a championship point for pole.

[ShiftingGears]

Also worth remembering is that Raikkonen only had one race win in 2003 and was only 2 points off Schumacher who had six wins. The determination comes from the driver, but I don't think 2 points is a large enough incentive to risk breaking your car going for victory than to settle for second place. Especially considering that when a driver does catch up to another driver,it is so extraordinarily difficult to pass anyway (there has only been one on-track pass for the lead, barring starts).

[ioan]

I like the current points system...the most consistent and reliable wins the WDC. IMO the only thing that could be added was a championship point for pole.

And change the competition's name to F1 Endurance Championship. :D

[Hondo]

I like the current points system...the most consistent and reliable wins the WDC. IMO the only thing that could be added was a championship point for pole.

Alright, I can go along with this. But we'll change the terminology. Nobody will "win" anything.

"so and so has been awarded the World Driving Championship in recognition of his outstanding consistancy this season"

Yeah, that sounds exciting.

[ioan]

What if someone wins the Championship without winning any race?!
I think I would stop following F1 and go watch some Nascar! :D

[race aficionado]

What if someone wins the Championship without winning any race?!
I think I would stop following F1 and go watch some Nascar! :D

And if you start following a racer you like, you will actually start enjoying NASCAR! :D

[ClarkFan]

And change the competition's name to F1 Endurance Championship. :D

And make the races longer - 3 hours minimum, perhaps?

ClarkFan

[Trqster]

Consistency is a trade mark of any good champion - it means that he regurlarly delivers. I rather see a regular podium visiter and winner made champion than someone with a few wins and a lot of DNF's or finishing out of points.

But like I said I would welcome a point for pole position and even maybe fastest lap.
Other than that it's ok for me.

[jso1985]

well the championship ain't over yet and the chance of Massa losing the championship despite having 8 wins is not much probable I think, so I don't see the need to start arguing over something that probably won't happen

[f1rocks]

And if you start following a racer you like, you will actually start enjoying NASCAR! :D


Race. I tried Nascar this year but have to admit that the oval races are just too boring. I only enjoyed the 3 road courses so far...F1 is still much better with all the crap that is going on...:d

[race aficionado]

Race. I tried Nascar this year but have to admit that the oval races are just too boring. I only enjoyed the 3 road courses so far...F1 is still much better with all the crap that is going on...:d

f1rocks.
My venture to NASCAR has been great so far and having Juan to follow and enjoy have made it a super experience.

As for F1, this year has also been super.
The mathenatical posibilities that have been brought up on this thread just confirm the options and they look exciting enouugh.

Will your Ferrari team come from behind? I'll be sure to watch and will root for some good exciting racing.

That's what it's all about, right?

:)

:s mokin:

[MAX_THRUST]

Whatever happens this year will be entertaining will cause more controversy for us to moan about. I don't care who wins, but I do think LH winning will finnally get some of the older crappy underperforming drivers to move on after 2008 season. As good as DC, JB, GF, are they aren't gonna win the title now, or next year, let some young blood in. F1 drivers stick around to long, isn't time they went sportscar racing, and let someone else chase their dream...

Oh and I'll be happy as long as Ferrari dont win. Every year they aren't doing so well they accuse another team of cheating........SAD!!!

BMW for this weekend could be a surprise for all others....

[ioan]

Oh and I'll be happy as long as Ferrari dont win. Every year they aren't doing so well they accuse another team of cheating........SAD!!!

Some links to prove this?!

[MAX_THRUST]

No links sadly....Just my old memory. Which remebers whenever Ferrari drop the 8 ball, they get a bit accusationary, but then so does those silver arrows.

All I know regardless of the silly pollitics this year I am not going to let it destroy my enjoyment of one of the closest championships we have enjoyed in years. I hope all are in for a chance come the Brazillian race...

[ioan]

No links sadly....Just my old memory. Which remebers whenever Ferrari drop the 8 ball, they get a bit accusationary, but then so does those silver arrows.

I thought so!


All I know regardless of the silly pollitics this year I am not going to let it destroy my enjoyment of one of the closest championships we have enjoyed in years. I hope all are in for a chance come the Brazillian race...

The fact that this year Ferrari's documents landed on a McLaren desk and they are trying to find out why doesn't mean that it was like this every year when they lost the championship, and we all know there were quite a few such years before 2000!

[Hondo]

I thought so!



The fact that this year Ferrari's documents landed on a McLaren desk and they are trying to find out why doesn't mean that it was like this every year when they lost the championship, and we all know there were quite a few such years before 2000!

Way too many years. It was painful.

[ArrowsFA1]

No links sadly....Just my old memory. Which remebers whenever Ferrari drop the 8 ball, they get a bit accusationary...
The McLaren/Ferrari animosity dates back more than 30 years!! At the height of the Hunt v Lauda 1976 title battle we had an illegal wing (Spain), a restart (Brands Hatch), high octane fuel (Monza) and supposedly a broken agreement in Japan.

And that was just the start!!

[ShiftingGears]

And make the races longer - 3 hours minimum, perhaps?

ClarkFan

If you keep the intense downforce and braking power of these cars, I think the drivers heads would be ready to fall off their shoulders!

[jens]

As McLaren managed to beat Ferrari on its home soil, then now it's hard even for the maths to help Ferrari in current situation. So maths don't count... or count? On August 13 FIA will do some maths and analyze, how many points should be taken away from McLaren to give an equal opportunity to everyone before the end of the season. :p :

Anyway, the feeling that Räikkönen will be the WDC of 2007, is increasing...

[Ranger]

As I've said... Ferrari shouldn't back any driver as long as the cars keep falling to bits, Sunday being the case in point.