Does Gronholm have a big enough lead?

[curry]

Does Gronholm have enough of a lead heading into the half time break?

My opinion - no! Here's why:

(Starting with a 9 point lead)

Finland: Gronholm 10 points, Loeb 8 Points.
Germany: Loeb 10, Gronholm 6 (Sordo second)
New Zealand: Could go either way, but let’s say Gronholm 10, Loeb 8
Spain: Loeb 10, Gronholm 6 (Sordo second)
France: Loeb 10, Gronholm 6 (Sordo second)
Japan: Could go either way, but let’s say Loeb 10, Gronholm 8 this time
Ireland: Loeb 10, Gronholm 6 (Sordo second)

Obviously total speculation but if the above was true then Gronholm would be trailing Loeb by 5 points heading into Wales.

In my opinion for Marcus to win the championship he needs to start beating Sordo on tarmac, remember how dominant the C4 was in the Monte. With 4 tarmac events in the second half, he has his work cut out. Not to mention how important wins in NZ and Japan will be.

Anyway I just thank Mr. Loeb for that off in Sardinia - it should make for the best drivers championship in years.

Also don't forget if the C4 goes 1 and 2 on the 4 tarmac rallies then that's at least 28 points of Fords lead in the Constructor’s gone, which just happens to be the current margin.

My prediction is both titles will be decided in Wales with Sebastian and Ford the respective champions.

Flame proof suit now on.

So what's your prediction?

[duff]

In a word - No.

But it is a little more variable than you are suggesting.
A lot depends on the step forward of the 07 Focus. Finland (and other gravel rallies) could quite possibly be a Ford 1-2 if the focus is a big improvement on the 06. Maybe (very big maybe) Petter could start mixing it at the front a little. And Ireland is a real wild card, I think a lot of crews will have trouble there.

Any way it should all be interesting (I'm sure all of us hope!).

[klm-607]

W/Loeb in the mix... no. I think Marcus can probably take all the remaining gravel rounds (IF he keeps his head in the game), but Loeb or Sordo will most likely take the Tarmac rounds. (although Marcus did do well in his Irish Tarmac "practise" rally... Galway) I do hope he can edge out Loeb if only by 1 point in the end. He deserves it.

[WRCfan]

I think Finland will throw up a suprise and see Marcus running out front with Mikko being incredibly fast on his home event. He has speed on all the other events, couple that with the fact that it is his home event, i think we might see a Loeb 3rd in Finland...

Mikko now needs to start thinking about possibly pushing that little extra to pull as close up marcus rear end as possible, thus meaning on gravel rallies he is trying to relegate Loeb into 3rd. Might not be possible on occasions although if let off the leash and told he can go for it Mikko could suprise...

[koko0703]

My short answer is "No". With 8 rounds to go, 8 pts lead is nothing.

However I agree with duff, alot depends on new Focus, and I also expect Petter to take away some precious points from both Macus and Loeb. Realistically Macus and Loeb are the only two with chance of taking the title, but it doesn't mean other drivers like Petter, Mikko, and Sordo won't mix up with top two. And the later half of this year, I think those 3 driver will play a big role on how the title will be won/lost.

[Zes]

Sordo is NOT going to win Marcus in all remaining tarmac rallies. I don't get it how people think he is that much better in Tarmac than Marcus. If Ford had right tyres in Monte, Marcus would have been very close or probably even faster than Sordo. Last year Marcus won Sordo in Monte and Corsica, he would have also won Catalunya without mechanical problems. Maybe Sebastien will win Finland and Marcus wins Catalunya...

Anyway 9pts isn't enough. Marcus need to win more rallies.

[MJW]

You are also forgetting the Petter factor. Whilst wins with Marcus & Loeb still finishing may be unliklely, but possible for Subaru, I do think that Petter will be ahead of one or the other on th epodium a few times. There is no guarantee that Loeb gets 2nd in Finland, Petter or Mikko could get that.
SWRT in the 2nd half of this season will not be so off the pace as last year or 1st half of 2007.

[MJW]

and could influence the destiny of the title - even Malcolm Wilson said that Ford were hoping Petter would take points away from Seb.

[Brother John]

You all forget, however, that Marcus can have a rally without points!
That can happen maybe in Finland! I hope not.
Under high press there can happen a lot!

[White Sauron]

Anything can happen. Just remember last year.

[Corny]

no he hasn't, he will lose at least 2 points in every tarmac rally, and will maybe lose some gravel events by being first on the road on day 1..

[J4MIE]

Whatever, I hope it will be exciting and that the title isn't lost by a retirement after a silly mistake - from either of them.

I think it's crucial that Marcus settles for high points on the tarmac rounds and doesn't throw anything away.

[Brother John]

no he hasn't, he will lose at least 2 points in every tarmac rally, and will maybe lose some gravel events by being first on the road on day 1..

He can go off road such as everyone els!

[leno]

it is to soon to predict who will be chanpion, everything can happen

[Zes]

One thing is sure. Sebastien is not allowed to retire anymore. 19pts could be too much to catch, even for him.

By the way, last time when Sebastien retired because of technical problem was in Sweden 2005. The second Citroen has had problems more often. It's a matter of time when this happens to Seb...

[kleisj]

Well the difference is too sort. However the pressure is more on Loeb's shoulders than Gronholm's given that he is chasing instead of being chased as usual.
In the Acropolis first time I actually saw Loeb being stressed and having the pressure on him. He has no margin for error but ofcourse the same applies to Marcus.
Furthermore it would be great if Solberg and Subaru can repeat their last performance to add some more pressure to the championship contenders. Make the fight more interesting.
Gronholm we know is human. We had the proof in the past. This year was Loeb's turn to show the signs...! And he has! http://img116.exs.cx/img116/934/z0tdntknw.gif

Even in the current boring format I 'm still interested to see what will happen!http://img108.exs.cx/img108/5527/i1lsmile.gif

[MikeD]

Does Gronholm have enough of a lead heading into the half time break?

My opinion - no! Here's why:

(Starting with a 9 point lead)

Finland: Gronholm 10 points, Loeb 8 Points.
Germany: Loeb 10, Gronholm 6 (Sordo second)
New Zealand: Could go either way, but let’s say Gronholm 10, Loeb 8
Spain: Loeb 10, Gronholm 6 (Sordo second)
France: Loeb 10, Gronholm 6 (Sordo second)
Japan: Could go either way, but let’s say Loeb 10, Gronholm 8 this time
Ireland: Loeb 10, Gronholm 6 (Sordo second)

Obviously total speculation but if the above was true then Gronholm would be trailing Loeb by 5 points heading into Wales.

In my opinion for Marcus to win the championship he needs to start beating Sordo on tarmac, remember how dominant the C4 was in the Monte. With 4 tarmac events in the second half, he has his work cut out. Not to mention how important wins in NZ and Japan will be.

Anyway I just thank Mr. Loeb for that off in Sardinia - it should make for the best drivers championship in years.

Also don't forget if the C4 goes 1 and 2 on the 4 tarmac rallies then that's at least 28 points of Fords lead in the Constructor’s gone, which just happens to be the current margin.

My prediction is both titles will be decided in Wales with Sebastian and Ford the respective champions.

Flame proof suit now on.

So what's your prediction?


I have done similar calculations as well and my conclussions are close to yours. Either loeb wins the title with a margin of 5 points or Gronholm win the title with a similar margin. In other words this year it will be very close.
But there are a couple of differences (as mentioned by other). One more DNF by Loeb and it will be game over for him. Gronholm can survive a DNF but then it has to be in a tarmac rally where he realistic would only score 6 points.

PS: If i have to guess I would say that Sardegna will cost Loeb this years title.

[White Sauron]

in a tarmac rally where he realistic would only score 6 points.



You really think that double world champ, who won im Monte, who all but won in 2003 in germany against Loeb, who was leading Monte 2004 in a crap Peugeot 307, who was leading in Spain 2006 before mechanical (!!) problems, and who won in first attempt in a very difficult Irish rally, can score only 6 points on tarmac and let Sordo move ahead of him? haha... As was previously said, in Monte Marcus was only third because the team hadn't nominated the tyres which suited the conditions and which Citroens were usuing at the moment. But even in this situation Gro was able to be head and shouders faster than anyone else except chevrons.

[Zes]

Also, it's interesting to see how Sordo handles pressure. If Citroen wants to have the manufacturers title, Sordo has to win both Marcus and Mikko on tarmac in every event. He must have a lot pressure, because of that.

[MikeD]

Also, it's interesting to see how Sordo handles pressure. If Citroen wants to have the manufacturers title, Sordo has to win both Marcus and Mikko on tarmac in every event. He must have a lot pressure, because of that.

I think manufacturers title is lost for Citroen. A 28 point gap is massive and I see Citroen and their lineup close that gap as the situation is at the moment. They better focus all on the drivers title.

[N.O.T]

the fact that Gronholm has never retired so far shows that his approach this year is definately not flat out.....if Loeb continues to go flat out and ridicules him everywhere like he does so far i think the gap will narrow and Gronholm will start to push and i think 1 retirement is guaranteed for him...the thing is if Loeb also continues to make mistakes then Gronholm can be champ.

To answer the question i think the lead is big enough for Gronholm if he continues his startegy...but if he gets borred to get beaten like a sick dog and tries to push then the championship is definately Loebs.

[White Sauron]

NOT, but what was in Greece? Gronholm wasn't beaten by Loeb, his strategy was to push at the beginning to build up a good lead and then control his lead? So... who tried, but wasn't able to climb higher than 2nd? Who wasn't even able in Sradinia to control his lead? Well, following your logic, it was Seb who got beaten like a sick dog... But I'm not you, and I will never call one of the two best ever drivers in the world a sick dog, no matter whom I support - Loeb or Gronholm.

[Shrike]

As it is now, no. Seb is due for some bad luck though.

[Corny]

sorry for the off topic, but I really hope Seb will not win the title this year, because by then the record will stay with Tommi (4 in a row)

But I see the guy winning it, as the tarmac rallies are in the second part of the season

[Priorat]

Loeb will win Finland but then will do a 0 in a tarmac rally (that could even be his untouchable Deutschland). Given Marcus wins it, it is 17 points to play with. That's a big enough lead.

[kleisj]

the fact that Gronholm has never retired so far shows that his approach this year is definately not flat out.....if Loeb continues to go flat out and ridicules him everywhere like he does so far i think the gap will narrow and Gronholm will start to push and i think 1 retirement is guaranteed for him...the thing is if Loeb also continues to make mistakes then Gronholm can be champ.

To answer the question i think the lead is big enough for Gronholm if he continues his startegy...but if he gets borred to get beaten like a sick dog and tries to push then the championship is definately Loebs.

You tend to diminish Gronholm too much ! And definitely Gron you shouldn't. Since is the only driver currently who beats Loeb without needing luck! Actually there are many cases he lost from Loeb due to his own bad luck! And is the only guy who put the Frenchman under pressure. Something which I believe will continue through the year (at least I hope so)!
But anyway for the moment the game is in his favour. He drove flat out in Greece even when he had built a safe gap Seb tried to attack only to find out that he couldn't cut more than a sec or two.
Can you say that Loeb was ridiculed in Greece or in Sweden? When he end up overhauled by Gron?
I am wondering what are your expressions for the rest of the WRC line up from position number 3 and below!http://www.chickslovethecar.com/images/smileys/laugh.gif

[curry]

Great to see that I have stirred some good debate in the mid season break we have at the moment.

duff
Regarding Peter and Subaru, I hope your right as I am Subaru supporter but I think it’s too early to say whether he will be a factor after just one good event. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the mix in Wales, which might put a interesting twist into the outcome of the drivers’ championship. Your right, Ireland will be a big wild card especially if it is raining – but I suspect that a wet surface will suit Loeb more than Gronholm.

WRCfan
I too think Mikko is a chance of getting 2nd in Finland, I don’ think Malcolm will let him win it if he leads Marcus on the final day. What you say about being letting of the leash is too true as I see Malcolm being very strict about getting points in the constructors as you have to expect that Ford’s lead will be dented by the 4 remaining tarmac events.

koko0703
Regarding Sordo; the only events that I can see Sordo beating Loeb barring retirements is the 4 tarmac events and the team will not let this happen if the C4’s are one and two.

kleisj
Your right it will be very interesting to see how Sebastian handles the pressure of being behind if he still is with 2 or 3 events to go.

MikeD
As others have rightly said Seb can’t afford another DNF but I disagree that Marcus can afford a DNF. In my opinion there is no way that Marcus can afford to not to finish with 4 tarmac events remaining

White Sauron
In a fight without mechanical issues I don’t believe Marcus is faster than Dani on tarmac. Dani is improving a lot this year and when you combine that with his favourite surface I believe that he would beat Marcus more often than not on tarmac.

N.O.T
Has Marcus ever gone through a year without having a DNF caused by driver error? Half of me is just wondering when he is going to throw it away – but I hope not.

White Sauron
I agree, I think Marcus’s strategy in Greece worked perfectly, that is push like hell in the first morning when Loeb is usually off the pace (happened a lot this year) then protect your lead by driving to the splits on days 2 and 3 and frustrate Seb.


For the record my prediction is Mikko 3rd and Dani 4th in the driver’s championship, which Solberg will be 5th?

[jso1985]

Too close now to predict anything IMO.
Loeb could easily win the 4 tarmac rallyes, so I think it's vital for Loeb that Sordo finishes 2nd in those rallyes, same for Grönholm who needs Hirvonen to fight for 2nd on gravel rallyes.
and Solberg might end up taking points from both.

[jparker]

It's strange how people in this forum change their opinion based on latest results. Just before Sardegna many were complaining about boring season and that Loeb will be champion again, too boring, he's not human and so on. The simple truth is that currently Loeb has better package this year and only technical problems or mistakes will prevent him from becoming champion one more time. The only reason Gronholm is currently ahead is because of Loeb's misfortune in Norway, Sardegna, and Greece. Yes, Greece. The flat tire give the win to Gronholm, he didn't win it in straight fight. The only hope for Marcus (as allready noted) is the new Evo07, if it matches the C4, his chances will be a lot greater.

[curry]

jparker

The flat tire give the win to Gronholm, he didn't win it in straight fight.

How did he get a flat tire? Because he pushed so hard that he destroyed 2 tires, so that to means Gronholm beat him in a straight fight because he saved his tires.

[jparker]

jparker


How did he get a flat tire? Because he pushed so hard that he destroyed 2 tires, so that to means Gronholm beat him in a straight fight because he saved his tires.

OK, fine. But as noted before Greece is somehow unique event in wich engine power is not decisive, and also Ford traditionally do well there. Same applies to Solberg. Both Ford and Subaru capitalized on the rough conditions, not because of improvement in development.
In other words, Sardegna and Greece don't change the big picture.

[White Sauron]

jparker, what a strange logic! You suppose, that when Gronholm did mistakes in 2006 and presented Seb the title, it was Loeb so good, and this year, when it's Loeb's turn to make mistakes, you don't acknowledge that it's Marcus so good and Loeb so "bad", you still continue saying Loeb is the best...
Well... so, when others make mistakes, all the credit to Loeb, but when Loeb makes mistakes, the man who take advantage of it doesn't get your credit... So, do you know how it's called?... You're biased...

[jparker]

jparker, what a strange logic! You suppose, that when Gronholm did mistakes in 2006 and presented Seb the title, it was Loeb so good, and this year, when it's Loeb's turn to make mistakes, you don't acknowledge that it's Marcus so good and Loeb so "bad", you still continue saying Loeb is the best...
Well... so, when others make mistakes, all the credit to Loeb, but when Loeb makes mistakes, the man who take advantage of it doesn't get your credit... So, do you know how it's called?... You're biased...

Actually I think you are biased. Not that there is anything wrong with that, but it prevents you from getting my point.
You have to get all the numbers and stats from last year and this year, and you will realize that both years belong to Loeb, like it or not. Even Ford didn't win the title, it was given away by Citroen. But this is not because of Marcus, I share equal respect to both drivers. It's just the car he drives.
What I don't like is crediting Ford and Gronholm as team with no particular reason. Gronholm himself deserver all credits for what he's doing for Ford, but they are not the top team.
Just start reading this thread from the top, and you'll see all credits going to him. Why? Because he doesn't make mistakes and finishes always second.
Remember Richard Burns (R.I.P), when he was driving the same way Marcus does this year, everyone was bashing him as "non spectacular" driver.

[White Sauron]

Actually I think you are biased. Not that there is anything wrong with that, but it prevents you from getting my point.
You have to get all the numbers and stats from last year and this year, and you will realize that both years belong to Loeb, like it or not. Even Ford didn't win the title, it was given away by Citroen. But this is not because of Marcus, I share equal respect to both drivers. It's just the car he drives.
What I don't like is crediting Ford and Gronholm as team with no particular reason. Gronholm himself deserver all credits for what he's doing for Ford, but they are not the top team.
Just start reading this thread from the top, and you'll see all credits going to him. Why? Because he doesn't make mistakes and finishes always second.
Remember Richard Burns (R.I.P), when he was driving the same way Marcus does this year, everyone was bashing him as "non spectacular" driver.


haha...Marcus non spectacular driver... Wow! You just once again repeat what I was pointing at. And by the way, any victory of any team can be considered as the same opportunity, thrown away by another team! So, When in 2003 Citroen won the title, we can easily say it was peugeot who just gave it away. When in 2004 Loeb won the title, we can say it was Solberg, who gave the crown away.But I'm sure, for you this logic works only when someone else than Loeb wins smth.

[jparker]

haha...Marcus non spectacular driver... Wow! You just once again repeat what I was pointing at. And by the way, any victory of any team can be considered as the same opportunity, thrown away by another team! So, When in 2003 Citroen won the title, we can easily say it was peugeot who just gave it away. When in 2004 Loeb won the title, we can say it was Solberg, who gave the crown away.But I'm sure, for you this logic works only when someone else than Loeb wins smth.

Well, its very unlikely we reach an agreement on that one, so lets put it away. I just hope you don't start whining "it's too boring" and "he's not human" again later this year.

[White Sauron]

Well, its very unlikely we reach an agreement on that one, so lets put it away. I just hope you don't start whining "it's too boring" and "he's not human" again later this year.

Yeah, and I don't wanna hear, in case Gronholm wins the title, that it was not down to him and Ford, but because of Loeb and Citroen' misfortunes.

[pino]

A big enough lead ? noway, not when the runner-up has the name of Sebastien Loeb ;) But I wouldn't mind to see Marcus winning the title before retiring from WRC :up:

[Glee]

[...]
For the record my prediction is Mikko 3rd and Dani 4th in the driver’s championship, which Solberg will be 5th?

My prediction:

Loeb and Grönholm (don’t now who will end up first)
Mikko Hirvonene
Dani Sordo
Henning Solberg

And Petter Solberg somewhere in this list (but highly unlikely as 1.st.)

[leno]

My prediction:

Loeb and Grönholm (don’t now who will end up first)
Mikko Hirvonene
Dani Sordo
Henning Solberg

And Petter Solberg somewhere in this list (but highly unlikely as 1.st.)

let s wait how competitive is subaru on tarmac and than predict where will be petter solberg at the end of season

but for first three places you got right

[jbmarcus21]

Anything can happen. Just remember last year.

yess true ! ...

Marcus can finish second on one tarmac round .. We don't know.. I believe it ! Marcus will champion

[MikeD]

Well, its very unlikely we reach an agreement on that one, so lets put it away. I just hope you don't start whining "it's too boring" and "he's not human" again later this year.

LOL

[Fang]

After last years substandard performance he would want a much better lead to be feeling comfortable.

[COD]

Big enough lead is when nobody can catch you, even theoretically. As long the lead is less than that, all is open.

[Fang]

Ignore my previous post. Shouldn't post after I've been drinking.

[jaytee10375]

Does Gronholm have enough of a lead heading into the half time break?

My opinion - no! Here's why:

(Starting with a 9 point lead)

Finland: Gronholm 10 points, Loeb 8 Points.
Germany: Loeb 10, Gronholm 6 (Sordo second)
New Zealand: Could go either way, but let’s say Gronholm 10, Loeb 8
Spain: Loeb 10, Gronholm 6 (Sordo second)
France: Loeb 10, Gronholm 6 (Sordo second)
Japan: Could go either way, but let’s say Loeb 10, Gronholm 8 this time
Ireland: Loeb 10, Gronholm 6 (Sordo second)

Obviously total speculation but if the above was true then Gronholm would be trailing Loeb by 5 points heading into Wales.

In my opinion for Marcus to win the championship he needs to start beating Sordo on tarmac, remember how dominant the C4 was in the Monte. With 4 tarmac events in the second half, he has his work cut out. Not to mention how important wins in NZ and Japan will be.

Anyway I just thank Mr. Loeb for that off in Sardinia - it should make for the best drivers championship in years.

Also don't forget if the C4 goes 1 and 2 on the 4 tarmac rallies then that's at least 28 points of Fords lead in the Constructor’s gone, which just happens to be the current margin.

My prediction is both titles will be decided in Wales with Sebastian and Ford the respective champions.

Flame proof suit now on.

So what's your prediction?
No,unfortunately not!