Race 14 - Belgian GP 2024 - Spa Francochamp

[Nitrodaze]

On the back of a controversial McLaren double podium in Hungary, we head to the Arden forest of Spa Francochamp Belgium. The weekend starts with the news of Verstappen taking a grid penalty for an engine change, which opens up the podium positions somewhat.
Another McLaren double is very much on the cards, but this is a bogey track for McLaren. But rumors suggest they have a special rear wing for this race that would address their issues from last season.

This is a power track, hence it would be a tighter battle for the last place on the podium between Ferrari and Mercedes. Russell would be looking to have a better race this time around. Perez would be looking to build on his good form in Hungary also.

The real question now is which McLaren driver would win the race? Lando or Oscar?

[52Paddy]

If the weather is dry, I expect Max to come through the field today. Mercedes look on decent form too. Not sure about Perez. He'll have a lot of pressure on him so hopefully he can put it to good. McLarens will be interesting to watch - they'll either punch above their weight at this track or fall back through the field. Maybe Albon could spring a surprise top 10 after his decent quali performance. If it rains, God only knows then...

[Nitrodaze]

Mercedes is being dumb at the mo. Piastri may win this race

[Nitrodaze]

Greatr race from Russell and Mercedes,. I did not see that coming

[N. Jones]

Idiots!

Mercedes showed the way, but everyone else two-stopped. It cost McLaren the win.

[N. Jones]

I guess I choose the right time to work on the FGP results - Russell has been disqualified for having an underweight car!

[Nitrodaze]

I guess I choose the right time to work on the FGP results - Russell has been disqualified for having an underweight car!

Yep. Apparently, he was supposed to lift and coast to save fuel but may have not done enough lifting and coasting. According to Horner, he may also have lost over a kilo of tyre rubber by one-stopping. Leclerc shall have a podium after all.

That was a highly intelligent strategic call by Russell. He has clearly learned a thing or two from having Hamilton as a team-mate. This is a very typical Hamilton strategic move. He deserved the win. I am sure he will get another one before the season is out.

Lando Norris seems to be imploding. McLaren needs to change their strategist. This was another race they should have won. They had the pace and Piastri was well placed to take advantage. They should have taken a risk like Russell.

[gm99]

Yep. Apparently, he was supposed to lift and coast to save fuel but may have not done enough lifting and coasting.

As Article 4.1 of the technical regulations clearly states "The mass of the car, without fuel, must not be less than 798 kg, at all times during the competition", I don't see how saving fuel by lifting and coasting could possibly have led to Russell's car being in compliance with the rules.

[Matthew]

I guess I choose the right time to work on the FGP results - Russell has been disqualified for having an underweight car!

Unlucky for him but the rules are very clear on this and it was not a surprise to see no complains from Mercedes after this disqualification.

[N. Jones]

Oh, I agree. They goofed after a brilliant drive from George.

[The Black Knight]

Pity for George but without 1.5kg less he would have likely not won the race anyway. It was still a brilliant drive from him regardless and not too surprising given his gargantuan talent.

Mercedes messed up on strategy as well and never informed Lewis that a one stop was a possibility when pitting. It was pretty clear at this point that the Hard tire one stop was the correct strategy. Sainz was on 20 lap old tires and he was doing comparable laps to Hamilton one new tires and, over such a long track, it made no sense to stop a second time. This was pretty obvious to me from the comfort of my own seat at home and from George's cockpit. I see why they pitted Hamilton but it was also obvious they could take Verstappen and Leclerc out of the equation by not stopping again.

Great race though. Good to see a bit of competition in F1 and, once again, Max is looking bang average now that he doesn't have a huge car advantage.

A final word on Checo. Red Bull are going to lose the constructors championship with him in the car. He isn't anywhere near the level of Max Verstappen and, while he doesn't need to be, with all the teams so close in performance now, being 0.3-0.5 seconds behind your teammate is now half a grid rather than a two grid positions as was the case in the past. I can't see that taking a gamble on someone like Yuki Tsunoda or Liam Lawson will hurt Red Bull. It can't get any worse than Checo now and Perez has had more than enough time to improve his performance. To not have a win since April 2023 in the car he has is astounding. RBR must drop him and I don't think they have a choice anymore now.

[N. Jones]

I think Checo is gone. I read a rumor that if he is gone, Williams will sack Sargent and replace him with Perez.

[The Black Knight]

I think Checo is gone. I read a rumor that if he is gone, Williams will sack Sargent and replace him with Perez.

I heard this as well but it would seem like a ridiculous gamble for Williams to take to choose Perez over anyone given his performance level over the past 15-16 months. Personally I feel like Checo's day in the sun has set and he no longer deserves an F1 drive anymore after his performances. But stranger things than this have happened in F1 in the past.

[Nitrodaze]

I heard this as well but it would seem like a ridiculous gamble for Williams to take to choose Perez over anyone given his performance level over the past 15-16 months. Personally I feel like Checo's day in the sun has set and he no longer deserves an F1 drive anymore after his performances. But stranger things than this have happened in F1 in the past.

This is what being the number two driver at Redbull does to your career. What most people do not know is Checo's car is mostly very different from Max's car. I saw a pic of both cars for the Hungarian GP, they were completely different. The development of the car has gone so far towards Verstappen, that Perez is an afterthought. The car does not suit him at all, thus he would not be able to produce his best performance.

It does not matter who they replace him with, the end result would be the same or worse. The Perez side of the Redbull garage is cursed.

Besides, there are not many desirable candidates to replace him; Ricciardo has not done enough to earn the seat. Redbull is a bit cool on the idea of putting either Lawson or Tsunoda in that seat. Their only real choice is to sign Sainz. But Sainz would want guarantees of equal treatment to Max. Two number situations would emerge as it did when they were both at Torro Rosso.

Until they workout who can do a better job or how to give him the car he wants, they are stuck with him

[Nitrodaze]

Pity for George but without 1.5kg less he would have likely not won the race anyway. It was still a brilliant drive from him regardless and not too surprising given his gargantuan talent.


I doubt it. Russell is very hard on his tires. It was a long shot either way. Apparently, Hamilton wanted to stay out on a one-stop converting from the planned two-stop strategy when Leclerc did his second stop, but he was asked to come into the pits to cover Leclerc and potentially Piastri.

You could see Hamilton was quite miffed when he found out that the very strategy was later given to Russell which resulted in Russell finishing ahead and winning the race. As it turned out, that was the wrong strategy anyway.

Nonetheless, it is the very first clear evidence that Mercedes would trip up Hamilton if it would favour Russell. I heard there is radio messages that bear evidence of this.

The atmosphere behind the scenes at Mercedes must feel like being in the Games of throne. Lots of daggers out behind fake smiles.

[Nitrodaze]

Another terrible weekend like this one for Norris would seriously undo his credibility of being a championship-winning driver, don't you think.

[Nitrodaze]

As Article 4.1 of the technical regulations clearly states "The mass of the car, without fuel, must not be less than 798 kg, at all times during the competition", I don't see how saving fuel by lifting and coasting could possibly have led to Russell's car being in compliance with the rules.

Good point, are Mercedes doing something dodgy with the weights of their cars? Russell being taller and possibly weighing more the Hamilton may also be a source for this error.

[Nitrodaze]

Oh, I agree. They goofed after a brilliant drive from George.

To be honest, that he did. He rolled the dice and made the risky strategy work. Even Hamilton was impressed by such a drive

[Bagwan]

I think Checo is gone. I read a rumor that if he is gone, Williams will sack Sargent and replace him with Perez.

I just read that Sainz is off to team Willy for a couple of years .

[N. Jones]

Yeah, he is, so I guess that is that rumor out the window.

[airshifter]

Not the race I was expecting, and I suspect that holds true for a lot of people.

In the early stages, it seemed nobody near the front could make an impact on anyone in front of them. Gapped changed, but nobody could really make a solid challenge. Positions gained or lost were mostly stuck and not moving. To be honest, for a while I thought we were in for the most boring Belgian GP ever.... it was a snoozefest.

And even when pit strategy started playing out, things didn't change all that much. Seeing all the top cars stuck in their positions made it painfully obvious how close the teams have become over time, and even the small setup differences and biases towards either qually or the race didn't seem to matter a lot.

George was bold early on and kept requesting the one stopper, and though they seemed unsure the team finally decided to let him give it a go. And much to my surprise, he made it stick. For laps I was thinking he might be lucky enough to hold on to a podium, but as the laps ran down it became clear that the gamble might pay off. And even though Lewis was on him, George was brilliant in the defense and pulling time where it mattered.

Until it all came to an end with the car DQ, George did everything right and made a bold call that worked. IMHO it's a shame that all his detractors immediately place blame on team sabotage gone wrong, and the intent to screw Lewis that failed. Had Lewis been given a one stopper and had the same result, those same finger pointers would be claiming it was still to screw Lewis but worked. Some people can't see beyond their own noses, and the user "apply differing expectations to others" is always in play. I'm glad I see things for what they are rather than try to find conspiracy everywhere.... it must be taxing on people. The weight issue simply shows that they had not explored tire wear options properly, or simply made a complete rookie error in weight calculations. The top teams should do better. I think Merc have had more DQs in the last couple years then most, and for a team of their scale it's just unacceptable.

The same applies to the Max, Lando, Oscar and others detractors. They and their teams do the best they can on a given day and roll the dice as they see fit. It's hardly a career ender when a driver doesn't finish where many think they could have, unless there is solid evidence that they underperformed.


Leclerc did a great job in taking the post RB penalty starting spot up front, and did well to keep himself on the podium that he didn't get to see. Lewis punked Sergio at the start and made good use of the rest of his time on track. Oscar and George both performed well, even though the rookie team mistake cost George big points in the end. As for Lando, he's entitled to not perfom his best at every race, and this was one where his day could have been better. Same for Max, though he end result wasn't what some expected he had a good race and stretched his points lead.


As for Perez.... I'm struggling to see how RB hasn't really cranked up the pressure on him. He finally got a top 3 qually and moved backwards well for the team.

[The Black Knight]

RBR to keep Checo in a move that I think they'll end up regretting. I understand the reasons for keeping him as there's no guarantee that a mid season driver swap will end any better but, as I said previously, it can't get any worse than Checo so I figure they've nothing to lose. With Checo they will definitely lose the constructors championship, without him, they may have a chance to win it. I can't see him keeping his seat for next year though.

Not too surprised to see Sainz move to Williams next year. I personally rate him very highly so it will be interesting to see how Alex Albon compares to him. Looks like Seargant is getting the deserved boot out the door.

[Nitrodaze]

RBR to keep Checo in a move that I think they'll end up regretting. I understand the reasons for keeping him as there's no guarantee that a mid season driver swap will end any better but, as I said previously, it can't get any worse than Checo so I figure they've nothing to lose. With Checo they will definitely lose the constructors championship, without him, they may have a chance to win it. I can't see him keeping his seat for next year though.

Not too surprised to see Sainz move to Williams next year. I personally rate him very highly so it will be interesting to see how Alex Albon compares to him. Looks like Seargant is getting the deserved boot out the door.

I rightly guessed there was going to be no change. The problem is not Perez per se. It is the car he is given to drive. I know a lot of people would say, but Verstappen is doing wonders with that car, so why can't he? Well, the car is designed specifically for Verstappen and Perez is given that car to do the best he can.

I personally think they have made the right decision. Ricciardo is a shadow of his former self and l doubt he would do any better than Checo. Redbull need to take Perez into consideration in their car design processes. What we are seeing is the result of them not doing so. Yet all would turn on poor Perez for it.

[Nitrodaze]

I

You could see Hamilton was quite miffed when he found out that the very strategy was later given to Russell which resulted in Russell finishing ahead and winning the race. As it turned out, that was the wrong strategy anyway.

Nonetheless, it is the very first clear evidence that Mercedes would trip up Hamilton if it would favour Russell. I heard there is radio messages that bear evidence of this.

I quoted someone else in my comment above. I have checked the radio messages that is available to the public, and l am unable to find any evidence of any radio message from Hamilton about doing a one-stop. This call was all Russell's idea. What a cracking drive and brilliant racing intelligence.