Race 17: 2023 Japanese GP [Suzuka]

[Nitrodaze]

https://www.atlasf1.com/2000/jpn/preview/jpnlap.jpg

Top winners of Suzuka GP are as follows:-

6 Michael Schumacher 1995, 1997, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004
5 Lewis Hamilton 2007, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018
4 Sebastian Vettel 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013
2 Yoshikazu Sunako 1966, 1969
2 Motoharu Kurosawa 1969, 1973
2 Gerhard Berger 1987, 1991
2 Ayrton Senna 1988, 1993
2 Damon Hill 1994, 1996
2 Mika Häkkinen 1998, 1999
2 Fernando Alonso 2006, 2008
Courtesy wikipedia.com

On the current grid, Sir Lewis Hamilton is the most successful driver on this circuit. Michael Schumacher is still the Duke of Suzuka with an all-time best of 6 wins at this circuit.

This race, which was earmarked to be the venue where Redbull seals the Constructor's championship, now takes on a new significance. With the surprisingly poor showing of the Redbulls at Singapore, all eyes are now on Redbull to see if Singapore was a blip or a sign of more trouble for the six-times Constructors world champions. A repeat poor race for Redbull would signify a harder rest of season for the championship leader. They clearly have a huge gap to their nearest competitor Mercedes. They can afford a few poor weekends. Especially since Mercedes is mired with troublesome competition from Mclaren and Ferrari. Their chances of gaining the sort of points improvement to concern Redbull is very much unlikely. Hence, it is a matter of when will Redbull seal both championships.

However, the battle for second in the constructor championship has now doubly intensified. Every team in the running for 2nd cannot afford any sloppy crashes or poor performances at any level. Mercedes shall rue that loss of 15 points by Russell as Ferrari now stands at 24 points away from Mercedes.

1 Redbull 597
2 Merccedes 289
3 Ferrari 265
4 Aston Martin 217
5 McLaren 139

The driver's championship could well be more open if it turns out Redbull is in trouble as suggested by the Singapore GP. With 7 races to go and 175 points on the table for any driver that can win the rest of the races this season, there is a slim mathematical chance of an upset. But highly unlikely as it would require Verstapenn to not take part in the rest of the season. Sergio Perez is the only driver with a slim chance of winning the 2023 driver's championship. But l guess Redbull may see to it that he doesn't with the level of performance he is able to get out of his Redbull at the moment.

1 Max Verstappen Red Bull 374
2 Sergio Perez Red Bull 223
3 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 180
4 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin 170
5 Carlos Sainz Ferrari 142
6 Charles Leclerc Ferrari 123
7 George Russell Mercedes 109
8 Lando Norris McLaren 97

By my calculations, Verstappen only needs to win one race or finish on the podium on two occasions within the next two races to clinch the driver's title. The battle for 2nd in the driver's championship is still raging on as Hamilton now closes to 43 points to a stagnant Sergio Perez. Perez cannot seem to shake off the chasing pack as he continues to struggle with his Redbull.

Can Ferrari repeat their awesome form at Suzuka? Can Mercedes unleash their newfound speed at this race? The battle for 2nd is a head-to-head between two giants; Ferrari and Mercedes. With Mclaren playing the role of kingpin upon which the success of either team hinges. Underlying all of this are the interesting cross-relationships that exist between various levels of the teams. At the driver level, Sainz has a close and good relationship with McLaren and Lando Norris. At a team level, Mercedes is the engine supplier to McLaren. Hence, the question is, would McLaren help Ferrari beat Mercedes?

Mathematically, Mclaren is only a remote contender for second place, but can realistically aim for third. At this point, you could say their fight at the moment is with Ferrari. Well until they find a way to skip ahead of Mercedes. Ferrari has been quietly on the move upwards. As Aston Martin has notoriously been on the move downwards.

[airshifter]

It's so quiet in here you could hear a cricket. And speaking of bugs, Seb showed up and got the drivers and teams involved in making bug and bee hotels, promoting ways to combat the global biodiversity loss. Though he did mention it would be hard not participating in the race events, he's still fighting battles near the track at Suzuka.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/japantimes/uploads/images/2023/09/22/253221.jpg

The curbs on the inside of turn 1 are now yellow and black due to the driver and team efforts.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.independent.co.uk%2Ff1%2Ff1-sebastian-vettel-lewis-hamilton-japan-suzuka-b2415897.html&psig=AOvVaw3XxmwCz7-0DDs7rxj_BcjJ&ust=1695576570510000&source=images&cd=vfe&opi=89978449&ved=0CBAQjRxqFwoTCMDJkouhwYEDFQAAAAAdAAAAABAt

https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2023/09/21074405/GettyImages-1693400786-scaled.jpg



The buzz on the track didn't have the teams and drivers so close. RB and Max put a stamp on rumors from the first hot lap in practice, and never looked back. Only the McLarens and Ferraris could manage to stay within 1 second of Max's pole time, and some of them had to work really hard to do that.

The RB and the McLarens are just mighty through the twisty stuff, and it seems that the softs couldn't really even handle what the cars would dish out. All drivers had to somewhat compromise laps times at the front, deciding where to push the most on the tires. Both Mercs, Yuki, and Fred all manage to get into the top 10, and the Japanese fans must have been excited to see Yuki manage to finish 9th. The race tomorrow might involve some differing tire strategies, and there are some grumbling rumors that with the high level of deg it's possible some teams might opt for a 3 stop strategy. Sergio still showing he can't keep pace with Max, allowing both McLaren drivers and Leclerc to best him in qually.


Every year I appreciate the Japanese crowd even more. Rather than a giant stand full of one color to support the Japanese driver, there are mega fans supporting virtually every driver and team through the grid, and they take some of their outfits to a new level. Every person in the stands seems to just genuinely appreciate the sport and all the entrants, and you would be hard pressed to tell that it's the homeland of both Yuki and Honda.

https://image-cdn.essentiallysports.com/wp-content/uploads/WhatsApp-Image-2023-09-18-at-10.12.16-PM.jpeg


I think the Mercs might still get into the fight some, but beyond that it's hard to say and down to strategy and tire choices mostly it seems. With Lawson P11 and Yuki in front of Fred, they might be able to keep the AM at bay, and maybe even push him out of the points. The real battle looks like it will be between the McLarens, Ferraris, and Sergio. Unless he screws up, it's looking like an easy win for Max.

Max did say jokingly after Singapore that since he was 20 seconds behind he should make a point to finish Suzuka 20 seconds ahead. Though he was obviously joking, it looks like one of the races that he could do it unless something goes sideways.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.independent.co.uk%2Ff1%2Ff1-sebastian-vettel-lewis-hamilton-japan-suzuka-b2415897.html&psig=AOvVaw3XxmwCz7-0DDs7rxj_BcjJ&ust=1695576570510000&source=images&cd=vfe&opi=89978449&ved=0CBAQjRxqFwoTCMDJkouhwYEDFQAAAAAdAAAAABAt

[Bagwan]

Just how many bees have to die , and how many tear-offs must be used to show Seb the proper placement for bee hives ?
You don't want your car to break down right there , eh ?

Just kidding , if it wasn't obvious .
Good on Seb for getting the message out to the world that the world is at risk .


Looking at green cars , my team in FGP is worried about a repeat of last week . I hope the factory building jet-lag is over soon as the car is a dog right now .

Sergio is trying to deal with Max's sharp-nosed car and is struggling .
It brings to mind the days where Fernando was driving the Renault and Fisi took a beating in the press for not being able to match him . JV tried , and had the same experience , and is the source of the explanation .

I'd like to see Fred and Max both in that Bull car .
That would be epic and I wouldn't want to have to predict a winner between them .

Tomorrow will be all about tires .

[Tazio]

checo is a freakin' bull in a china shop

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

[sgr]

Redbull and MV detractors left with egg on their faces :rotflmao:

[Bagwan]

checo is a freakin' bull in a china shop

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

Yeah , the trophy wife is pretty angry with Checo for taking out one of her drivers in the FGP .
I wouldn't want to be him .

Team Willy will be wondering why they dropped Latifi for Logan right now .

Max is going too fast to stay in the telecast for most of the race , so he should slow down a little for the sake of the sponsors on his car .
It just makes good business sense .

[Used to be Starter]

Team Willy will be wondering why they dropped Latifi for Logan right now .
Mistake after mistake after mistake. I was pleased to see an American finally get a ride, but he is the wrong one. Gone by end of season if not earlier.

[Nitrodaze]

Mistake after mistake after mistake. I was pleased to see an American finally get a ride, but he is the wrong one. Gone by end of season if not earlier.

I hoped he would at least perform as well as Rossi. He has squandered his chances and had too many crashes which has cost the team dearly. It is too late for him to turn things around as the damage is done. The question now is who would replace him. My money is on Liam Lawson.

[gm99]

I hoped he would at least perform as well as Rossi. He has squandered his chances and had too many crashes which has cost the team dearly. It is too late for him to turn things around as the damage is done. The question now is who would replace him. My money is on Liam Lawson.

Mine is on Felipe Drugovich.

[Nitrodaze]

Mine is on Felipe Drugovich.

Has Felipe had track time to show what he can do?

[airshifter]

Not really much of a race overall at Suzuka, but it's such an interesting track that it doesn't take massive battles to make it fun to watch.

As expected Max on top in the RB. I have to admit I'm a bit disappointed myself, he joked about winning by 20 seconds and only won by 19.3 seconds. Rather sloppy for a two time WDC if you ask me. :laugh: Hopefully this will put to rest the TD speculation about it being the "cheating" RB cars.

Checo was a mess, I'm shocked that RB are still talking as if Checo is a sure thing for next year. With RB pull and money, I think they have more options compared to most teams, and I'm surprised they aren't taking one of them yet. I'd go so far as to say that drivers RB has disposed of might do better back in the car at this point. Sergio has just been so inconsistent it makes no sense to keep him long term. At the rate he's going Lewis might end up 2nd in the WDC, but in a much lesser car.

Both Ferrari and Merc kind of screwed their strategy some, but it more or less evened out in the end. George on Lewis was sloppy at best by both drivers IMHO, and shows that while Toto is away from the pit wall they will push limits more. But then when Lewis was obviously faster later in the race, they let George argue it a bit long and cost Lewis time in the end. They need to make decisive decisions to swap or not, not negotiate them as the race goes on. As for Ferrari, rather than react they left Carlos out to hang, and the undercut just got more painful without a reaction. Had they reacted at the time he might have stayed out of touch of Lewis.

Piastri got lucky with the VSC timing, otherwise he might have fallen back into the clutches of Charles and Lewis, maybe even Carlos. He might have been able to up pace under pressure, and it worked out great for McLaren in the end.

Logan seems to be a mess, and is not coming to grips with F1. I think he will end up with this being his last season, if he makes it to the end.



Alonso had a mighty start, but it faded. It's interesting that AM have been nailed with wing issues even before the recent TD, and had a car DNF with wing problems, not to mention relative lack of pace from Fred the last couple of races, but nobody wants to share theories on AM being impacted by the TD. They even ran extra sensors on the rear, so they are obviously worried about it, and we know they have already had one rear wing design made illegal, along with one Merc front wing design. Yet people want to point at RB, who is not falling off the pace while some others seem to be.


The largest qually margin in two decades at Suzuka. I think that clarifies what car wasn't impacted by the TD.

[Used to be Starter]

I hoped he would at least perform as well as Rossi. He has squandered his chances and had too many crashes which has cost the team dearly. It is too late for him to turn things around as the damage is done. The question now is who would replace him. My money is on Liam Lawson.

Good bet.

[Used to be Starter]

Logan seems to be a mess, and is not coming to grips with F1. I think he will end up with this being his last season, if he makes it to the end.
He came out of F2 way too soon and has been unable to get his head in a good place. He is now his own worst enemy. I'm afraid his career is already done - at least at the top levels of the sport. There are a couple of young American drivers in IndyCar who it seems would have been better choices for the seat.

[gm99]

Has Felipe had track time to show what he can do?

A couple of FP1 outings, nothing spectacular.
Personally, I think Lawson would be the better choice from Williams' perspective, but I'm not sure Red Bull really want him to go there.
Also, for Lawson there is a reasonable chance he might get another call-up from AT or even RBR next season. The doctor may well finally lose his patience with either Perez or Tsunoda, or Ricciardo may not come back strongly from his injury.

[gm99]

He came out of F2 way too soon and has been unable to get his head in a good place. He is now his own worst enemy. I'm afraid his career is already done - at least at the top levels of the sport. There are a couple of young American drivers in IndyCar who it seems would have been better choices for the seat.

Would they have been eligible for a super license, though? We already know Colton Herta, who finished tenth in IndyCar in 2022, wasn't. The only Americans who finished ahead of him were Newgarden and Rossi, who at 32 and 31 are not really young. Kirkwood and Ferrucci would almost certainly not have met the criteria for a superlicense in 2023 (and I'd better not mention Sting Ray Robb ;) )

[Used to be Starter]

Would they have been eligible for a super license, though? We already know Colton Herta, who finished tenth in IndyCar in 2022, wasn't. The only Americans who finished ahead of him were Newgarden and Rossi, who at 32 and 31 are not really young. Kirkwood and Ferrucci would almost certainly not have met the criteria for a superlicense in 2023 (and I'd better not mention Sting Ray Robb ;) )
You are correct about the super license. That's been a hurdle for American drivers for years. IndyCar is the top road racing series in the US, is very competitive, yet isn't given as much consideration as F2, F3 or some of the other lesser series around the world. If you are a young American driver it's IndyCar, NASCAR or go home.

[Nitrodaze]

A couple of FP1 outings, nothing spectacular.
Personally, I think Lawson would be the better choice from Williams' perspective, but I'm not sure Red Bull really want him to go there.
Also, for Lawson there is a reasonable chance he might get another call-up from AT or even RBR next season. The doctor may well finally lose his patience with either Perez or Tsunoda, or Ricciardo may not come back strongly from his injury.

I think Vowe has many options to choose from. There is Mike Schumacher and Nick De Vries also. They even have the option of trying to get Vettel back on the grid to help them develop the car further. Not to mention some very good drivers racing in formula-e and Indy-car.

Personally, l would think experience coupled with great speed should form their criteria for the second seat. To ensure whomever they choose can help them push the development of the car further up the grid. After all, they are no longer a backmarker team as of this season.