rallyforum 2023 prediction challenge

[seb_sh]

Hello rallyforumers and happy holidays!

Having been inspired by ChainBear's F1 prediction challenge(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmQuJWqcoz8) I decided to create a WRC predictions challenge for us to have some fun with next year. Think of it like something between Pickems and Crystal Ball. This is not intended to replace either of those!

In order to enter you fill in the following questionnaire: EDIT: [entries closed, link removed]
How it works: there are 40 questions starting from fairly straightforward going to a bit more out of the box. At the end of the season we count up the points and see how we did.

Closing date is 15th January 2023 end of day CET. (basically before Monte Recce starts, i think :P)

I'm doing this as an experiment for fun, no prizes except for bragging rights! I had a few more goofy ideas for questions but toned it down for this first try.

Some administrative details:
- after the closing date I will publish everyone's picks, that way you can still find out the results if i get hit by a bus or something
- I have already made my response and attached it to this post, just to ensure i'm playing fair and not peeking at your results, would be nice if a couple people download and verify this file after entries close
- I will calculate and publish the results between 1st and 15th december 2023. But there may be some intermediate teaser updates during next year depending on how much time i have.
- if any questions is unclear you can ask for clarifications here

Thanks for playing and have fun!

[WRCStan]

Awesome. Thanks for arranging.

Make a coffee and get your thinking cap on for this chaps.

[Rallyper]

Made my pick. Big fun.

[bomber21]

Good one, I had fun

[skarderud]

My phone won't unpack the file, has to use a pc?

Sent fra min SM-S901B via Tapatalk

[seb_sh]

My phone won't unpack the file, has to use a pc?

Sent fra min SM-S901B via Tapatalk

It's an .xlsx file exported from google drive inside a zip made with 7zip so that i can upload it here. Maybe you need a pc.

[AnttiL]

"When Ogier is not driving, how many points will "his car" score in total? (no matter how many different drivers drive it)"

Does this refer to Katsuta or the possible rental customers?

[seb_sh]

"When Ogier is not driving, how many points will "his car" score in total? (no matter how many different drivers drive it)"

Does this refer to Katsuta or the possible rental customers?

Katsuta not included, just people renting the "extra" car.

Edit: autocorrect typo

[seb_sh]

Short reminder, one more day to get in on this, entries close tomorrow at 24:00 CET.

[seb_sh]

entries closed! thanks for participating, we have 53 entrants including a few non forum members :) Good luck!

I have attached a zip of the final results, inside there is a .xlsx file export from google drive if you want to check out what other people have picked. For full transparency I would ask someone to verify that my responses from my first post are unchanged in the finaly entry. Even if there's no prize i want to be fair, as there can be an advantage from seeing what everyone is choosing.

Finally, I had a look at the statistics of the responses and tried to write the season review according to our picks. In the following days I will post a few more specific statistic about what was chosen. Let's see if the forum "Popular Wisdom" is correct:

Kalle Rovanperä is the 2023 driver champion with 215 points beating Ott Tänak and Thierry Neuville with Toyota taking home the manufacturer's title. The season was quite exciting with most rallies being won by the finn, closely followed by the estonian and each of these two winning their home rally. In the end it was the better reliability of the Toyota that allowed Rovanperä to win. The title was decided at the new Central Europe Rally. The first part of the year was quite tight between the two contenders. Kenya was the hardest rally with multiple stage winners and many retirements. Tänak took the lead after winning in Estonia but Rovanperä took it back after winning in Finland and never gave up the lead again. While Neuville managed to finish 3rd it was due mostly to a come-back in the 2nd half of the year after having a disappointing start to the season. Unfortunately for Hyundai they couldn't rely on their 2nd and 3rd drivers when Neuville had issues as Lappi and Breen had a lot of crashes so Hyundai were never really a threat to Toyota in the manufacturer's championship, Ogier, Evans and Katsuta were a far more reliable team than what Hyundai entered. Katsuta did especially well on the treacherous African roads of Kenya and on his home rally in Japan. MSport Ford didn't really try as they only entered two official cars for most rounds and had 4 other drivers during the season either as customers or as an occasional 3rd official car. Lappi and Loubet have dissapointed this year, failing to finish quite often and Breen has also not been able to recapture his previous form with Hyundai. In WRC2 Emil Lindholm succesfully defended his title beating Oliver Solberg. WRC2 had 4 different winners and 3 different manufacturers getting to the top spot of the podium. Even an old generation Fabia Rally2 evo managed to win a round! The WRC2 champion managed to gather 21 points in the overall WRC classification. Hopefully we will see what he can do in a Rally1 car next year!

[seb_sh]

https://i.imgur.com/zmZhCMn.png
https://i.imgur.com/hgMiwJm.png
https://i.imgur.com/0gUvHbY.png
https://i.imgur.com/z4ZVkP9.png

[seb_sh]

Now that the dust has settled on the 2023 season and we got over most of the silly season news I think it's time to see how we all did in the prediction challenge. To build up some suspense today we'll look at the first 5 questions and I plan to post the results to 5 questions every day. Thanks for playing and good luck!


Today's questions were pretty straight forward:

1. Who will be World Driver Champion? 15 points
Answer: Kalle Rovanperä (49% got it right)

2. Which Manufacturer will win the World Champonship? 10 points
Answer: Toyota (88% got it right)

3. Which driver will win the most rallies? 15 points
Answer: Kalle Rovanperä, Sébastien Ogier and Elfyn Evans all tied with 3 wins each. Picks were mainly split between Rovanperä and Tänak. Interestingly no one picked Evans and only one person picked Ogier.

4. Which Manufacturer will win the most rallies? 10 points
Answer: Toyota (79% got it right)

5. Which driver will win the most stages? 15 points
Answer: Kalle Rovanperä (53% got it right)

Here are your picks:
https://i.ibb.co/kmSJWCJ/Results-of-rallyforum-com-prediction-competition-2023-responses1.png (https://ibb.co/2ZkSf4S)

And here is how the standings look after 5 questions.
https://i.ibb.co/5KGPrKb/Results-of-rallyforum-com-prediction-competition-2023-inter1.png (https://ibb.co/Sf5ztfF)

[seb_sh]

Questions 6 to 10 today and already there's more variety thanks to the questions about stage winners and picking who stands on the podium.

6. Which Manufacturer will win the most stages? 10 points
Answer: Toyota (77% got it right)

7. Pick all drivers who will stand on the podium. (If some drivers are not in the list you may enter multiple names in the "Other" option.) 5 points for each correct pick; -3 for each incorrect or missing pick (you can lose points on this question)
Answer: Kalle Rovanperä, Elfyn Evans, Thierry Neuville, Ott Tänak, Sébastien Ogier, Esapekka Lappi, Takamoto Katsuta, Dani Sordo, Craig Breen (two participants got max score)

8. Pick all drivers who will win a stage. (You may enter multiple drivers in the Other pick if you don't find them in the list.) 5 points for each correct pick; -3 for each incorrect or missing pick (you can lose points on this question)
Answer: Kalle Rovanperä, Sébastien Ogier, Ott Tänak, Elfyn Evans, Thierry Neuville, Craig Breen, Takamoto Katsuta, Esapekka Lappi, Dani Sordo, Pierre-Louis Loubet, Teemu Suninen (nobody got this perfect because of Suninen, but there were 4 people who got it right except for missing Suninen)

9. Which Manufacturer will win the most Power Stages? 10 points
Answer: Toyota (68% got it right)

10. Will the national anthem of the host nation be played on the WRC podium? (for example Tänak winning in Estonia or a Toyota driver in Japan) 10 points
Answer: yes (no Finn in Finland, no Ott in Estonia but a Toyota did manage to win in Japan, 89% got it right)

Here are your answers, click to enlarge. First one contains questions 6,7 and 10 and questions 8 and 9 are separate for readability.
https://i.ibb.co/J31qx0c/Results-of-rallyforum-com-prediction-competition-2023-responses2a.png (https://ibb.co/J31qx0c) https://i.ibb.co/DbD6SMW/Results-of-rallyforum-com-prediction-competition-2023-responses2b.png (https://ibb.co/DbD6SMW) https://i.ibb.co/ZBTfGqg/Results-of-rallyforum-com-prediction-competition-2023-responses2c.png (https://ibb.co/ZBTfGqg)


The standings so far:
https://i.ibb.co/3W9FnKJ/Results-of-rallyforum-com-prediction-competition-2023-inter2.png (https://ibb.co/sQd1Z7B)

[seb_sh]

Part 3 was about picking rallies.

11. Which rally will have the most different stage winners? 15 points
Answer: Italy, Loubet, Ogier, Tanak, Katsuta did SuperRally and Sordo retired. Only 7 got it right, this question had very spread out picks, most popular was Kenya.

12. Which rally will have the fewest Rally1 retirements and Rally1 cars using super rally? 10 points
Answer: Estonia with 0, 8 people got it right, picks were also relatively spread out on this question.

13. In how many rallies will the rally winner also win the Power Stage?
15 points for exact number
5 points for +/- 1
2 points for +/- 2
Answer: 5, 40% of answers. Another 40% chose 4, so most people were quite close.

14. Will a rally be cancelled or replaced this year? 10 points
Answer: No. Now doing the results it seemed a strange question to ask but in the last few years we did have rallies almost cancelled or replaced due to various reasons, and 6 people picked yes.

15.Pick a rally. You get as many points as Katsuta gets on that rally. max 30 points
Kenya and Japan were popular picks (41.5% and 24.5%) but the best choice ended up being Finland, Takamoto's adoptive home where he got 17 points.

Your picks:
https://i.ibb.co/BLQn9yn/Results-of-rallyforum-com-prediction-competition-2023-responses3.png (https://ibb.co/9n1Z7bZ)

Standings:
https://i.ibb.co/3c4Rttj/Results-of-rallyforum-com-prediction-competition-2023-inter3.png (https://ibb.co/CQmPxxY)


Tomorrow we look at 5 questions related to WRC2.

[seb_sh]

Today it's about WRC2. The results were a bit less predictable than the previous questions.

16. Which driver will win WRC2? 15 points
Answer: Andreas Mikkelsen (only 4 picks and was behind Lindholm, Solberg, Suninen, Rossel and equal with Pajari and Fourmaux)

17. How many manufacturers will win rallies in WRC2? 10 points
Answer: 2 (most people expected 3 - 64%, but 2 was the 2nd most popular choice - 23%)

18. Will a previous generation Fabia Rally2 win a rally in WRC2? 10 points
Answer: yes (Kajto in Safari, the picks were pretty even but more people chose yes - 57%)

19. How many different rally drivers will win a rally in WRC2? (only official WRC2 entries count) 10 points for correct number no points for incorrect guess
Answer: 7 (only 4 correct picks, most people expected 4 or 5 winners)

20. How many OVERALL WRC points will the WRC2 champion driver score this season? (this refers to points in the main WRC overall classification not the WRC2 classification - in 2022 Emil Lindholm had 16) 10 points for exact number 3 points for +/- 1
Answer: 29 (only 2 picks got partial points)

Your picks:
https://i.ibb.co/2sVgh0x/Results-of-rallyforum-com-prediction-competition-2023-responses4.png (https://ibb.co/b2wzmjT)

Standings so far, for those doing the rally by rally pickems a familiar name appears at the top. ;)
https://i.ibb.co/cJ9kdG0/Results-of-rallyforum-com-prediction-competition-2023-inter4.png (https://ibb.co/b1VQnST)

[seb_sh]

Today in part 5 we have questions about retirements, crashes and cancelations.

21. Which of these full time Rally1 drivers will complete the fewest total number of stages? 15 points
Answer: Pierre-Louis Loubet (Loubet and Lappi were the favorites here with 41.5% picks each)

22. How many stages will be cancelled in 2023? (if a whole rally is cancelled before it starts it doesn't count for this question) 15 points for exact number, 5 points for +/- 1, 2 points for +/- 2
Answer: 2 (much fewer than last year, only Priorat got it exactly right)

23. Which of the following drivers will have the FEWEST points in the general WRC classification, regardless of how many rallies they start: 10 points
Asnwer: Serderidis, Bertelli, Lefebvre or Loeb, all with 0 points (a bit of a speculative question, all except 5 people got the points)

24. Which driver will crash out the most times while driving a Rally1 car? (a crash out is counted if they can not start the next stage without SuperRally, there can be multiple in the same rally) 10 points
Answer: Pierre-Louis Loubet (only 4 chose him, most popular was Lappi)

25. Pick a rally, you get points for every Rally1 car that retires or has at least one SuperRally stage. 5 points for each Rally1 car that retires or uses Super Rally (you only get the points once per car)
Answer: Italy had the most - Loubet, Ogier, Tanak, Katsuta did SuperRally and Sordo retired (only 3 picked Italy, most popular was Kenya)

Your responses:
https://i.ibb.co/ZBRZ68s/Results-of-rallyforum-com-prediction-competition-2023-responses5.png (https://ibb.co/8rnhD53)

Standings so far, Corcaíoch takes the lead!
https://i.ibb.co/64Hq0QN/Results-of-rallyforum-com-prediction-competition-2023-inter5.png (https://ibb.co/19r4Gcb)

[seb_sh]

Part 6 today, this section has only 4 questions and is about the flow of the season. The last post will have 5 normal questions + the tie-breaker question.

26. At which rally will the drivers title be decided? 15 points
Answer: Central Europe (66% got it right)

27. After which rally will the Driver Champion not lose the lead anymore? 15 points
Answer: Portugal (only AnttiL got it right)

28. Which of these part time drivers will be most efficient? (total points / rallies entered) 10 points
* this question made me sad as it reminded me we lost Craig Breen who always brought me joy at stage end interviews, he seemed to had found his mojo after returning to Hyundai, RIP Craig. :(
Answer: Craig Breen (3 people picked him)

29. For the following full season drivers, take the final points and divide by the number of points each of them has after Kenya (round 7). Who will have the highest ratio?
(for example:
driver A has 200 points total at the end of the season and only 50 after Kenya so 200/50 = 4
driver B also has 200 in total at the end of the season but 100 after Kenya so 200/100 = 2
in this case driver A would win this question)
Another way to ask this question would be: Who would have a bad first half of the season (up to and including Kenya) and a great second half. 10 points
Answer: Takamoto Katsuta (he had a bad start but gained momentum as the year went on, only pedro16 predicted this one)


Your responses:
https://i.ibb.co/Y7667x7/Results-of-rallyforum-com-prediction-competition-2023-responses6.png (https://ibb.co/SX22XzX)

Not much change in the standings:
https://i.ibb.co/x8zx2Jw/Results-of-rallyforum-com-prediction-competition-2023-inter6.png (https://ibb.co/sJs8gyc)

[seb_sh]

Part 7 today, questions about alternative scoring and results.

30. Who would be Driver Champion if the season ended after Kenya? 15 points
Answer: Kalle Rovanperä (53% of answers)

31. If no points would be awarded for the Power Stage would that change who the 2023 Driver Champion is? 10 points
Answer: No (74% of answers)

32. Consider the “team leader” to be the highest placed driver at the end of the season for each manufacturer. If we remove these 3 drivers from all rallies and recalculate manufacturer points with these new standings considering only the other 2 (or 1 if the case may be) nominated drivers scoring points for the manufacturer, which manufacturer would win the championship? 10 points
Answer: Toyota (66% of answers, this was an interesting one, by removing Kalle, Ott and Thierry we give Evans a super season where he finishes either 1st or 2nd in all rallies except 2 no scores. Ogier has a great first half of the season and Katsuta brings points in the 2nd half. The remaining Hyundai drivers have occasional good results but are too inconsistent.)

33. If only the best 7 results counted, who would win the championship? 10 points
Answer: Kalle Rovanperä (40% of answers, most popular was Tanak with 47%)

34. If no points were given for the overall standings in the rally and instead full points were given for the power stage (PS winner 25, down to 1 for 10th place), essentially making it a Power Stage championship, which driver would be champion? 10 points
Answer:Kalle Rovanperä, it really was his year (55% picked him)

Your responses:
https://i.ibb.co/JKGDJDz/Results-of-rallyforum-com-prediction-competition-2023-responses7.png (https://ibb.co/9N1Q5Qq)

Standings so far, Corcaíoch extends his lead:
https://i.ibb.co/HhhVQmf/Results-of-rallyforum-com-prediction-competition-2023-inter7.png (https://ibb.co/6XXm567)

Tomorrow I will post the final results!

[WRCStan]

Thanks for doing this Seb, a good bit of fun even though I'm shite at it. Would play again if you wanted to run it again in 24.

[seb_sh]

Thanks for doing this Seb, a good bit of fun even though I'm shite at it. Would play again if you wanted to run it again in 24.

I plan to do it again, main thing is to have some fun between the end of the season and the start of Monte :)

[seb_sh]

Finally we are at the end, part 8 of the 2023 prediction challenge!

35. How many points will the World Champion Driver have? 25 points minus difference between your pick and actual number, without getting negative points
eg: WDC winner has 200 points
you predict 210, you get 25 - 10 = 15 points
you predict 180, you get 25 - 20 = 5 points
you predict 100, you get 25 - 100 = 0 points
(you can't lose points)
Answer: 250 (Danny0405 picked exactly right)

36. How many co-driver changes will there be for Rally1 drivers? (a change is counted if for consecutive entries a driver has a different co-driver, if a driver races with co-driver A then switches to B then goes back to A again that's 2 changes) 25 points for exact pick, 15 for +/- 1, 5 for +/- 2
Answer: 3 (4 people got it right, Serderidis had 2 of them, Loubet 1, most popular answer was 1 with 32%)

37. What will be the points difference be between 2nd and 3rd place in the manufacturer's championship? 25 points minus difference between your pick and actual number, without getting negative points
eg: Team B in 2nd place has 450 points and Team C in 3rd place has 250 so the difference is 200:
you predict 210, you get 25 - 10 = 15 points
you predict 180, you get 25 - 20 = 5 points
you predict 100, you get 25 - 100 = 0 points
(you can't lose points)
Answer: 145 (closest was peg306 who said 143)

38. When Ogier is not driving, how many points will his car score in total? (no matter how many different drivers drive it) 25 points minus difference between your pick and actual number, without getting negative points
eg: the car gets 75 points
you predict 85, you get 25 - 10 = 15 points
you predict 55, you get 25 - 20 = 5 points
you predict 0, you get 25 - 75 = 0 points
(you can't lose points)
Answer: 11 (by Latvala)

39. How many different customers will M-Sport have? (Anyone except Tänak and Loubet driving a Ford Puma Rally1 in the WRC is considered a customer for this question, but each individual driver counts only once, regardless how many rallies they do) 25 points for exact pick, 15 for +/- 1, 5 for +/- 2
Answer: 4 (Serderidis, Munster, Heller and Fourmaux drove the car except for Tanak and Loubet and was the most popular answer at 38%)

Your responses:
https://i.ibb.co/7tzc4tV/Results-of-rallyforum-com-prediction-competition-2023-responses8.png (https://ibb.co/HT2vdTY)

Final result! If the points are equal the tie break is the difference between the predicted and the actual special stage KM in rally japan, not counting cancelled stages, the smaller difference wins.
Congratulations to Corcaíoch for winning this year's challenge! Thanks to all who participated, hope to see you soon in the 2024 predictions challenge :)
https://i.ibb.co/5hCqWWP/Results-of-rallyforum-com-prediction-competition-2023-inter8.png (https://ibb.co/9HBR997)

[Jumppe]

Thanks a lot for this Seb_sh, was really much fun, appreciate your work! Waiting for next year!

[spark13]

Agree, thanks for keeping the suspense through this several days, was really entertaining to check the results day by day and trying to remember anything from a year ago survey (cant remember shit to be honest) will be glad to participate next year!