[2021] Six races to go - Whos going to win which races?

[Nitrodaze]

Make your guess here. Who is going to win each of the last six races? and what would your guess be for who would win the driver's championship based on your estimation?

October 24 United States GP Austin
November 7 Mexican GP Mexico City
November 14 Brazilian GP Interlagos
November 21 Qatar GP Doha
December 5 Saudi Arabian GP Jeddah
December 12 Abu Dhabi GP Yas Marina

[Nitrodaze]

October 24 - United States GP - Austin - Hamilton
November 7 - Mexican GP - Mexico City - Verstappen or Perez
November 14 - Brazilian GP - Interlagos - [Wet - Verstappen][Dry - Hamilton]
November 21 - Qatar GP - Doha - Hamilton or Bottas
December 5 Saudi Arabian GP Jeddah - Hamilton or Bottas
December 12 Abu Dhabi GP Yas Marina - Verstappen 50% chance Hamilton 50% chance

[Nitrodaze]

Check out this great article : https://andrewokri.medium.com/the-last-six-515432f49354?sk=545c9ced5ba8011cb62aae2070f0a966

[Firstgear]

No guesses on specific races, but I think either McLaren or Ferrari will pick up one more win...maybe a wet race (Leclerc?). Hamilton for the title.

[Nitrodaze]

No point guessing. The season has turned everything we know about past strengths at each track on its head. It is anyone's guess who is going to win what race in the last FIVE.

Verstappen appears to be the favourite for the driver's title, but 12 points is by no means a comfortable lead. Hamilton and Mercedes cannot be ruled out of the equation just yet. That said, what a ride Verstappen has had this season. This is his best chance to establish himself as the man to beat, to the other junior champs prepping to launch themselves into the title fight of 2022. The likes of Norris, Leclerc, Russell, Sainz, Gasly and Ocon.

[Bagwan]

Post #1 -"Make your guess here."
Post #5 -"No point guessing ." and "It is anyone's guess..." .

I guess I should toss in post #6 , even though there seems no point .

Lewis will come from behind to wrench it away , against all odds , heroically , from the "favourite for the driver's title ." .

My guess is that it will appear epic .

[Zico]

I haven't a clue who will win these specific races but despite not being ahead right now, I have a gut feeling that it will still be Hamiltons championship.

My reasons for thinking that are... Mercs trick rear suspension couldn't be optimised in Austin due to the risk of them breaking the car but ..IF.. it can be with 4 or more of the 6 remaining races, Red Bull have a huge problem.

See https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/a...zHts8Apdf.html

A 20 kmh top speed hike is a pretty devastating tool to have in your arsenal. It was so effective that Max couldn't even stay in touch with Bottas the last time it was working and fully optimised. Maybe some of you guys will have a better idea but the unknown for me is which of these circuits will benefit most from it.

[Nitrodaze]

Post #1 -"Make your guess here."
Post #5 -"No point guessing ." and "It is anyone's guess..." .

I guess I should toss in post #6 , even though there seems no point .

Lewis will come from behind to wrench it away , against all odds , heroically , from the "favourite for the driver's title ." .

My guess is that it will appear epic .

Baggie, you would eat humble pie if Verstappen somehow wins it.

[Firstgear]

Baggie, you would eat humble pie if Verstappen somehow wins it.
Verstappen winning wouldn't prove Baggie wrong. It would only indicate that Mercedes is as bad at manipulating championships as they are at adapting race strategies mid race. :laugh:

[Bagwan]

Here's a recent quote from Toto :
" The more you win the more people cheer for the underdog."

[Zico]

Verstappen winning wouldn't prove Baggie wrong. It would only indicate that Mercedes is as bad at manipulating championships as they are at adapting race strategies mid race. :laugh:

:laugh:

[Mia 01]

Heres hope that Lando Norris wins at least one race.

And, ofcourse, Max wins the title. It´s enough now Lewis!

[Nitrodaze]

Verstappen winning wouldn't prove Baggie wrong. It would only indicate that Mercedes is as bad at manipulating championships as they are at adapting race strategies mid race. :laugh:

HA HA HA LOL

A win-win situation

[Nitrodaze]

Here's a recent quote from Toto :
" The more you win the more people cheer for the underdog."

It is true though. Just look at how brutal the 2021 regulations were to Mercedes. They are so good, they had to be stymied to give another team a chance to challenge for the title.

While it has been exciting to see Verstappen and Redbull dominate most of the season. It has been equally intriguing to watch Mercedes dig themselves out of the handicap of the regulations.

If Mercedes and Hamilton end up winning both titles, it would be their greatest triumph and probably up there with one of the best seasons in F1 history.

[Bagwan]

It is true though. Just look at how brutal the 2021 regulations were to Mercedes. They are so good, they had to be stymied to give another team a chance to challenge for the title.

While it has been exciting to see Verstappen and Redbull dominate most of the season. It has been equally intriguing to watch Mercedes dig themselves out of the handicap of the regulations.

If Mercedes and Hamilton end up winning both titles, it would be their greatest triumph and probably up there with one of the best seasons in F1 history.

Would it be "their greatest triumph" because they torpedoed themselves constantly this year with dumb screw-ups instead of utterly dominating , as in the previous years ?

I get seeing it as a great season to watch , but is seeing it as "their greatest triumph" logical ?

[Nitrodaze]

Would it be "their greatest triumph" because they torpedoed themselves constantly this year with dumb screw-ups instead of utterly dominating , as in the previous years ?

I get seeing it as a great season to watch , but is seeing it as "their greatest triumph" logical ?

Mercedes made some mistakes but so did Redbull. Saying Mercedes should have been dominating this season is an exaggeration. I think Redbull should have been further ahead if they made fewer mistakes. After all, they have the clearly dominant car most of this season.

But why could it be their greatest triumph? Well, they started this season with a half a second deficit to Redbull. They won races because Redbull was making a lot of mistakes at the early races. They properly recovered most of the lost timing by halfway through the season at Silverstone. Since Silverstone, the Mercedes driver's championship campaign has suffered due to a number Pitwall mistakes. Also, the Mercedes engine seems more brittle than the armoured Mercedes engine of past seasons.

Also, Redbull has gotten progressively better with its operations which is reducing opportunities for Mercedes. The three big Redbull crashes have cost Redbull dearly on the contractor's championship front. As such, has distorted the complexion of the true state of the constructor's championship. Lucky for them, Mercedes has not been able to punish them severely for them.

So yes, the Mercedes of 2021 is a shadow of its past setup. Mostly due to the punishing 2021 regulations and partly due to the cost cap that has reduced their effective workforce. And also partly due to the fact that their level of mistakes is higher than their effective performance can neutralize. When they had the speed over the entire grid, those mistakes were quickly compensated for by their drivers. Now, it cost their drivers dearly.

With this in mind, this is the hardest challenge they have endured from another team since the hybrid era commenced. And to win from behind would be the sweetest triumph to them.

[Bagwan]

I never said Merc "should" be dominating , even if I believe they could .
I'm saying that they are sick of taking stick for it , which is what Toto insinuates in that quote .

It's just another vague reference to the sacks of granulated minerals I suspect are in the boot .


I am happy you are enjoying the show .
That's the whole idea , whether the hare or the tortoise prevails .

[airshifter]

Hard to say who will win what. This season we've had tracks that most assume belong to one team, but they struggle there and one of the others makes it work.

As for Merc and the major triumph.... I'd say no. Neither Merc nor Lewis has been at the top of their game this year, and it shows. Most likely due to having to actually work for it much harder this year, but that is the situation. I personally think they fact that they dominated the vast majority of the current turbo hybrid era has been a much greater accomplishment than they could ever expect to achieve this year if they pull off the WCC and WDC. Barring a couple of years (including this one) they have been well clear in the WCC standings, and even the "close" year of 2018 they still finished 80+ points ahead. With two solid drivers even they close years would have ended in the team drivers #1 and #2. Bottas allowed them to not maintain that, but at the time Merc didn't really care, since they were still getting the WCC and Lewis was getting the WDC.

I suspect they just didn't expect RB or anyone else to improve as much as they did and got caught putting more resources into next years car. They rebounded fairly quick, and should be in the lead in both title fights if not for driver and strategy errors. So if they pull it off, it will be another season to add to the list, but far from a brilliant year IMHO.




It looks like Bagwan is trying to cover all bases now. If Merc doesn't win he can just say they screwed up their sandbagging ploy!

[Nitrodaze]

Hard to say who will win what. This season we've had tracks that most assume belong to one team, but they struggle there and one of the others makes it work.

As for Merc and the major triumph.... I'd say no. Neither Merc nor Lewis has been at the top of their game this year, and it shows. Most likely due to having to actually work for it much harder this year, but that is the situation. I personally think they fact that they dominated the vast majority of the current turbo hybrid era has been a much greater accomplishment than they could ever expect to achieve this year if they pull off the WCC and WDC. Barring a couple of years (including this one) they have been well clear in the WCC standings, and even the "close" year of 2018 they still finished 80+ points ahead. With two solid drivers even they close years would have ended in the team drivers #1 and #2. Bottas allowed them to not maintain that, but at the time Merc didn't really care, since they were still getting the WCC and Lewis was getting the WDC.

I suspect they just didn't expect RB or anyone else to improve as much as they did and got caught putting more resources into next years car. They rebounded fairly quick, and should be in the lead in both title fights if not for driver and strategy errors. So if they pull it off, it will be another season to add to the list, but far from a brilliant year IMHO.




It looks like Bagwan is trying to cover all bases now. If Merc doesn't win he can just say they screwed up their sandbagging ploy!

I would not say it has been a brilliant year for Mercedes. I agree the whole paddock team of Mercedes has underperformed. But we can attribute that partly to the effects of the budget cut. I don't think Mercedes underestimated Redbull for this season either. They were quite circumspect about where they might be in the pecking order after seeing the effects of the 2021 regulations on their chassis. They tried to compensate with an upgraded engine which appears to have consequentially increased fragility of the power unit.
They have put in a tremendous amount of work in the factory to get their performance as close as possible to Redbull. That is where they would properly appreciate this season to be their greatest achievement if they can win both championships. Because they would have done it with reduced staff in the factory and achieved what their previous compliment would have achieved in the face of a truly [more] difficult opponent. That said, Redbull is in the same boat, operating with the budget cut and reduced staff. But fair to say not quite as punished as Mercedes has by the 2021 regulations.

[Nitrodaze]

I never said Merc "should" be dominating , even if I believe they could .
I'm saying that they are sick of taking stick for it , which is what Toto insinuates in that quote .

It's just another vague reference to the sacks of granulated minerals I suspect are in the boot .


I am happy you are enjoying the show .
That's the whole idea , whether the hare or the tortoise prevails .

I really don't sympathize with Toto on this matter. They have failed to exploit most of the low hanging fruit situations that have come their way. Everyone expected them to be in high efficiency to grab those sorts of opportunities easily. But they surprisingly didn't. So they are deservingly getting stick for them. Not to mention those woeful pitstops and poor in-race strategies that have bled points away.

[Bagwan]

"It looks like Bagwan is trying to cover all bases now. If Merc doesn't win he can just say they screwed up their sandbagging ploy!" -Shifter .

Aesop covered those bases way back , Air .

Merc , the hare in the screw-up you mentioned , is planning on a non-Aesopian outcome .

[Bagwan]

I really don't sympathize with Toto on this matter. They have failed to exploit most of the low hanging fruit situations that have come their way. Everyone expected them to be in high efficiency to grab those sorts of opportunities easily. But they surprisingly didn't. So they are deservingly getting stick for them. Not to mention those woeful pitstops and poor in-race strategies that have bled points away.

So , Merc's "greatest triumph" , or not ?

[Nitrodaze]

So , Merc's "greatest triumph" , or not ?

I think so.