F1 2021 Regulation - A failure or Success

[Nitrodaze]

The 2021 regulation has slowed down Mercedes. But it does not seem to have helped the rest of the grid. The net result seems to be a swap at the top. With both teams; Redbull and Mercedes, close enough to be interesting. But the anticipated increase in the number of teams fighting for wins has not materialized.

What do you think? Have the 2021 F1 regulation delivered on its promise?

[F1nKS]

My answer would be yes.

There is at least to this point, a championship battle. Which at minimum F1 has to have. From the podcasters I listen to are all agreeing that this is shaping up to be a great battle and they have been trying to compare it to past great years. I think if there is a repeat of 2020 would be very detrimental to Formula 1.

If you want data to confirm it the effect, then look at the delta qualifying times between top teams and the other teams (teams evaluated were Mercedes, Red Bull, Aston Martin, Mcclaren, Alpine and Alpha Tauri), the qualifying delta has decreased.

I looked at the first 4 races (they were apples to apples comparison between 2020 and 2021). For some reason the 2021 Styrian GP times are not representative to 2020 - which makes me think they made some significant change to the track this year.

For those first 4 races - the delta qualifying were:

2020
Mercedes 0.0
Red Bull +0.5 sec
Aston Marin +1.0 sec
Alpine +1.1 sec
Mclaren +1.2 sec
Alpha Tauri +1.2 sec

2021
Mercedes 0.0
Red Bull 0.0
Mclaren +0.6 sec
Alpine +0.8 sec
Alpha Tauri +0.8 sec
Aston Martin +1.1 sec

So the qualifying has tightened up. Looked at the Styrian GP compared to last year.

Nobody was within 1 second of Hamilton last year in Q3, this year there was 7 drivers within the Second of Max.

[Nitrodaze]

My answer would be yes.

There is at least to this point, a championship battle. Which at minimum F1 has to have. From the podcasters I listen to are all agreeing that this is shaping up to be a great battle and they have been trying to compare it to past great years. I think if there is a repeat of 2020 would be very detrimental to Formula 1.

If you want data to confirm it the effect, then look at the delta qualifying times between top teams and the other teams (teams evaluated were Mercedes, Red Bull, Aston Martin, Mcclaren, Alpine and Alpha Tauri), the qualifying delta has decreased.

I looked at the first 4 races (they were apples to apples comparison between 2020 and 2021). For some reason the 2021 Styrian GP times are not representative to 2020 - which makes me think they made some significant change to the track this year.

For those first 4 races - the delta qualifying were:

2020
Mercedes 0.0
Red Bull +0.5 sec
Aston Marin +1.0 sec
Alpine +1.1 sec
Mclaren +1.2 sec
Alpha Tauri +1.2 sec

2021
Mercedes 0.0
Red Bull 0.0
Mclaren +0.6 sec
Alpine +0.8 sec
Alpha Tauri +0.8 sec
Aston Martin +1.1 sec

So the qualifying has tightened up. Looked at the Styrian GP compared to last year.

Nobody was within 1 second of Hamilton last year in Q3, this year there was 7 drivers within the Second of Max.

Well researched, but slightly of the mark. The improvement in times noticeable in the midfield is because the 2021 car is an evolution of the 2020 car. Teams had enough data to improve and enhance their 2020 cars for qualifying. Hence what you have noticed is not due to the regulation per se. These deltas were already discernable towards the end of last season. Especially in Bahrain and Abu Dhabi.

Also, these deltas you have quoted fluctuate from circuit to circuit. Mclaren finished 3rd last season, hence it is not unexpected that they are the closes to the sharp end of the grid. The other thing you missed out, were the race deltas where the gaps are gaping. The closest midfield car at the end of the race was a 64.032. A full minute adrift.

My point is the chassis regulation did not bring the midfield into the fight at the sharp end of the grid. It had zero effect on enhancing their performance on race day.

[F1nKS]

Well researched, but slightly of the mark. The improvement in times noticeable in the midfield is because the 2021 car is an evolution of the 2020 car. Teams had enough data to improve and enhance their 2020 cars for qualifying. Hence what you have noticed is not due to the regulation per se. These deltas were already discernable towards the end of last season. Especially in Bahrain and Abu Dhabi.

Sorry, you are totally wrong. The changes in rules slowed down the whole field. No car improved between 2020 and 2021, they all took a step back. The question is how much of step back did they take in qualifying.

The first chart shows the delta time by race. As you see the performance loss is track depended.

2129

2nd graphic is summary of those 4 races.

2130

But as shown above, it did have a benefit of compressing the qualifying field.

Second you miss the point of the change in regulation - it had one goal which was to knock Mercedes back so it would be a competitive championship this year. It was never meant to bring the midfield into the fight on race day. They hope to do that with the rules changes for next year.

[airshifter]

And for once in many years, cars seem able to battle and follow closely enough for a period of time to actually mount an attempt at overtaking. Though still not great, it is much better than in past years when a following car had to either make a pass quickly or fall back. Obviously being in clean air is always going to be better, but not it's not a death sentence on the tires to stay close for a number of laps. But that is no surprise being that many of the new regs reduced downforce and thus the dirty air wakes coming off of the cars.

Long term we will see if compressing the field really works out better. Short term it seems to me is does to some extent. As usual the lesser teams are only going to win when things go south at the front or with a bad strategy call. But at least they are close enough to have a chance at getting in the fight when a mistake is made by the driver as well.


Over time, the simplification of certain parts (along with aero testing changes next year), the cost caps, and the majority of other changes should make us end up with tighter racing.

[Nitrodaze]

Sorry, you are totally wrong. The changes in rules slowed down the whole field. No car improved between 2020 and 2021, they all took a step back. The question is how much of step back did they take in qualifying.

The first chart shows the delta time by race. As you see the performance loss is track depended.

2129

2nd graphic is summary of those 4 races.

2130

But as shown above, it did have a benefit of compressing the qualifying field.

Second you miss the point of the change in regulation - it had one goal which was to knock Mercedes back so it would be a competitive championship this year. It was never meant to bring the midfield into the fight on race day. They hope to do that with the rules changes for next year.

I think you would find the data would be considerably different and contrasting to those graphs for races after Spain. In those first four races, Redbull was still trying to find its way. They knew they have a faster car but had not properly understood the sweet spot of tuning and setting up the car yet. Mercedes on the other hand had brought some knowledge from winter testing to improve the car. Which brought them level with Redbull for those four races.

The races after Spain has shown that Redbull has more bandwidth to tweaking the car than Mercedes has. The know-how that Mercedes brought from testing had run out of legs after Spain and they have lost every race since then. The fact that Verstappen was about three-tenths faster than any of the Mercedes cars on the straight, on a typical Mercedes track, says it all. Unless Mercedes can come up with a brilliant solution to their chassis, anyone thinking Mercedes has a chance to win any other races at any other future track, is delusional. Well, except for lucky breaks due to Redbull DNF or poor strategy. Wins from wheel to wheel battle on track is very much out of the question as it stands at the moment.

Verstappen's 2021 pole at this track was 1.03.841, and last season in third place was 1.03.477. They have lost essentially three tenths this season; 0.364 seconds lost, to be exact. Bottas took pole last [2020] season by 1.02.939. This weekend, he qualified second with a time of 1.04.035. A time loss of 1.096 seconds from last season. Remember all teams must use the 2020 chassis and engine. In essence, Redbull has recovered 0.732 seconds from Mercedes at this race, in qualifying trim.

Now, if we do the same computation for all teams on the grid, l doubt you would find any other team that is near three tenths from their last season pace. Redbull has made the most gain, and it is showing. We could argue that they have made this gain due to the aerodynamic regulations of 2021. Other suggestions are that they have improved the engine which they deny. Or they have altered the chassis in some way. Or a combination of all of the above. Now, 0.732 seconds is a huge gain to achieve with no changes to the chassis and engine. So where did it come from. With limited information, the only glaring source for such a gain lies in the cut out in the chassis prescribed by the 2021 regulation.

And no other team with raked chassis has made a similar seven tenth gains forward. If any of them had done, Mercedes would be deep in the midfield at this point of the season. So where did it come from l ask?

[airshifter]

If you ignore that all teams have increased times, and then compare them to Merc, you can easily cherry pick numbers to state that certain cars gained a massive advantage.

IF you ignore the races that Merc qualified well in. IF you ignore that the track conditions, tires, tire pressures, setup, and driver performance can all change rapidly. IF you ignore that other cars had smaller delta times, etc, etc.

Gasly 2020 104.305 and out in Q2
Gasly 2021 103.236 in Q3

Kimi 2020 105,224
Kimi 2021 105.429

Gio faster in 2021 This wraps it up for me. FIArrari rigged it all again!


RB are just getting it right pretty much this year. Some others are not. But Merc has had tracks where they got it right. To discount the reality of that is just going down a rabbit hole of conspiracy theory.


When all the cars have less aero grip and times go up, the pointy end of the field is naturally going to suffer the most. They were the ones that had it figured out better with the old rules, and will eventually do the same with the new rules.

[F1nKS]

I think you would find the data would be considerably different and contrasting to those graphs for races after Spain.

Unfortunately, after the first 4 races there were no direct comparison between this year and last.


And no other team with raked chassis has made a similar seven tenth gains forward. If any of them had done, Mercedes would be deep in the midfield at this point of the season. So where did it come from l ask?

It seems to me that RB is still working on this car aerodynamics this year and are clawing back some of the time lost due to the rule changes from last year. Mercedes not so much.

I also think that the engine "reliability upgrade" that Red Bull got in France allows them to run their engine in higher engine mode.

[Nitrodaze]

Unfortunately, after the first 4 races there were no direct comparison between this year and last.



It seems to me that RB is still working on this car aerodynamics this year and are clawing back some of the time lost due to the rule changes from last year. Mercedes not so much.

I also think that the engine "reliability upgrade" that Red Bull got in France allows them to run their engine in higher engine mode.

Well, you said it. Rule changes favour their particular chassis. On the engine front, the jury is out. Mercedes are insinuating that it was more than a reliability upgrade. Regardless of that, the very point of this thread is really to establish whether other teams have benefited from the rule changes. Mclaren seems to be showing stronger performances but not much more than we saw last season. Ferrari seems slightly stronger. But are still adrift from the sharp end of the grid.

Hence, one could argue that the 2021 regulations were successful on one front only; to slow down Mercedes significantly. But has failed woefully at bringing the midfield squarely into the sharp end of the grid. If anything, the midfield has drifted further back, with a clear two-tier racing on Sundays. When both Redbull and Mercedes do a great job each, the midfield stack up from 5th onwards.

Mclaren seems to have stronger qualifying performances; especially with Lando Norris. But soon drift backwards in the race.

[F1nKS]

Well, you said it. Rule changes favour their particular chassis. On the engine front, the jury is out. Mercedes are insinuating that it was more than a reliability upgrade.

Well that really just Hamilton. He's kind of a petulant child when he not winning. I see he is now demanding that Mercedes bring some upgrades. Which I am sure they will regardless of what Toto is saying in his press conferences.

Toto understands what was going on with the Red Bull engines and said so in press conference. If you have durability/reliability concerns you have to run you engine at lower power to preserve the life. If you fix those issues of concern then theoretically you can run at higher power (though with future reliability concerns in future races).

I'm sure Mercedes has untapped potential in their engines they could turn up some if they want to risk future reliability.

[Zico]

Well that really just Hamilton. He's kind of a petulant child when he not winning. I see he is now demanding that Mercedes bring some upgrades. Which I am sure they will regardless of what Toto is saying in his press conferences.

Toto understands what was going on with the Red Bull engines and said so in press conference. If you have durability/reliability concerns you have to run you engine at lower power to preserve the life. If you fix those issues of concern then theoretically you can run at higher power (though with future reliability concerns in future races).

I'm sure Mercedes has untapped potential in their engines they could turn up some if they want to risk future reliability.

Merc will introduce some mild aero and engine upgrades soon..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/57651115

[Nitrodaze]

Merc will introduce some mild aero and engine upgrades soon..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/57651115

That is nice to hear but l doubt it would be enough to upset Redbull. Redbull is well poised to take both championship titles this season.

[Zico]

That is nice to hear but l doubt it would be enough to upset Redbull. Redbull is well poised to take both championship titles this season.

The odds are obviously slightly in RBR's favour right now but there is a long long way still to go and literally anything could happen, a single DNF by Max and its advantage Lewis again. This could easily swing the other way yet.
Let's not also forget that RBR are in exactly the same position as Merc regarding the 22 car... and I also wouldn't bank on Totto being totally honest that the 21 car will not be upgraded again this season. Could easily just be gamesmanship.

[Nitrodaze]

The odds are obviously slightly in RBR's favour right now but there is a long long way still to go and literally anything could happen, a single DNF by Max and its advantage Lewis again. This could easily swing the other way yet.
Let's not also forget that RBR are in exactly the same position as Merc regarding the 22 car... and I also wouldn't bank on Totto being totally honest that the 21 car will not be upgraded again this season. Could easily just be gamesmanship.

It would be interesting to see if Mercedes could win a race in the next four races, if the Redbull of Verstappen does not have a DNF or something of that nature. The Mercedes is a second rate car now. They cannot beat Redbull on outright performance in a straight fight. If anything, that is exactly what the result at Paul Ricard is telling us. To keep the fans still engaged, they use words like "nip and tuck", "ebbing and flowing" and turn around. All of that contingent upon Mercedes finding some elusive solution that helps them regain three-tenths of a second. With the pressure of 2022, l doubt Mercedes have the bandwidth to find such a solution. This is it or put the 2022 project at risk.