2019 WDC Elimination Numbers

[Duncan]

I thought I would start a thread to show elimination numbers after each race. I always find this visualizes well for me how much work each driver has to do to take the WDC (spoiler: pretty much impossible for anybody not driving a Merc). The elimination number is the gap each driver has to the points leader, minus the number of points still on the table. After each race, subtract both the number of points scored by the current points leader *and* the number of points below the maximum 26 scored by that driver from their number. When a driver's elimination number goes negative, they are mathematically eliminated from contention.

Table of elimination numbers after Singapore with 156 points still on the table:


DriverElimination Number
Lewis Hamilton-
Valtteri Bottas 91
Charles Leclerc 60
Max Verstappen 60
Sebastian Vettel 54
Pierre Gasly E
Carlos Sainz E
Alexander Albon E
Daniel Ricciardo E
Daniil Kvyat E
Nico Hulkenberg E
Lando Norris E
Kimi Räikkönen E
Sergio Perez E
Lance Stroll E
Kevin Magnussen E
Romain Grosjean E
Antonio Giovinazzi E
Robert Kubica E
George Russell E

[Duncan]

Updates after today's race, with now only 130 points on the table:


DriverE# After SingaporeE# After Sochi
Lewis Hamilton--
Valtteri Bottas 9157
Charles Leclerc 6023
Max Verstappen 6020
Sebastian Vettel 542
Pierre Gasly EE
Carlos Sainz EE
Alexander Albon EE
Daniel Ricciardo EE
Daniil Kvyat EE
Nico Hulkenberg EE
Lando Norris EE
Kimi Räikkönen EE
Sergio Perez EE
Lance Stroll EE
Kevin Magnussen EE
Romain Grosjean EE
Antonio Giovinazzi EE
Robert Kubica EE
George Russell EE


Nobody else actually mathematically eliminated after today, but at this point Seb would need to win every race and have Lewis score no more than one point over the next 5 races. Oh, and he needs almost all of the fastest laps also.

Max & Charles are still theoretically able to overhaul Lewis, but would also require ridiculous strings of wins (and DNFs from Lewis) to do so. Even Valtteri, with only 130 points still to play for, would need to secure almost all of those points *and* still requires multiple low or no score results from Lewis.

One more race and the chances are the WDC will be over, practically if not mathematically.