Who will be the 2019 drivers world champion?

[Nitrodaze]

In 2018, when Vettel built a decent gap in the 1st half of the season, l remember saying in one of my posts that Hamilton would need to pull out something special to win the 2018 title against what was a fearsome Ferrari in Vettels hands. And that was just what Hamilton did. He produced a mesmerizing performance that saw him win his fifth title against what seemed surely a Vettel year to win the title for Ferrari.

By all accounts of what has been witnessed at winter testing, 2019 is proving to be another year similar to the 2018 season where Ferrari has once again turned up with what looks like a very fearsome car. Mercedes seem rocked by this, and Redbull were at awe of the gap that they find themselves needing to breach between where they are compared to the Ferrari. The 2019 season seem set for Ferrari to win at least the first three to four races before Mercedes catch up to them. If say, Ferrari can consistently manage a one two over say four races with Vettel winning these races, that would put him forty points ahead of whomever can be consistently in 3rd. This would be the best case scenario for Vettel and a very steep uphill battle for Mercedes if they are unable to breakup the Ferrari dominance early.

With the change of leadership in Ferrari, one would expect that they would not make the same mistakes they did last season. With a fast Leclerc in the other Ferrari, it would be crystal clear to Vettel that he cannot afford to make any sort of mistake this season. Ferrari would be very keen to make the most of their performance advantage, thus l do not expect them to have their drivers racing each other and taking points from each other. Hence, expect Vettel to have the full support of the team to lead the charge for winning the titles on the table with Leclerc in a supporting role.

So one could say, that Vettel is the favorite to win the drivers title. That said, even with the odds strongly against him, betting against Hamilton winning the 2019 drivers title feels weird and stupid. Mercedes have consistently out performed Ferrari in the development battle through each season since the hybrid era began. Mercedes would catch up to the Ferrari at some point and Hamilton would steadily begin to whittle down the points difference between himself and Vettel.

This is where the crunch for Ferrari and Vettel would begin and typically this was where Ferrari and Vettel started to make mistakes. The question this season is, can they keep their nerves and work to maintain some sort of a gap up till Abu Dhabi? If you were to force me to place a bet, l would have to go 50:50 at this stage. But ask me again when we are a quarter of the way through the season and l may have a different answer. It is also hard to tell how disruptive Redbull might be in all of this.

Redbulls with a similar pace to Mercedes may help Ferrari win the 2019 Constructors and drivers titles.

[Tazio]

do not expect them to have their drivers racing each other and taking point from each other. Hence, expect Vettel to have the full support of the team to lead the charge for winning the titles on the table with Leclerc in a supporting role. Probably true, but I hope Vettel doesn't beat him. My man's Mclerk

[Mia 01]

My man ofcourse, Kimi :)

[Artisto]

Vettel seems very confident in his latest interviews that they have managed to work on their weaknesses during the break, ultimately admitting to where he had gotten it wrong last year, which is from psychological perspective an important step in the right direction to build back mental toughness.

But probably way too early to tell :)

[truefan72]

I think Hamilton takes it again in 2019 and here is why
1. firmly established his dominance over Bottas who is on the hot seat all year with Ocon waiting in the wings
2. The Mercedes will probably take a few GP's to truly get going but I suspect that by the time they hit hungary they will probably be the strongest car out there
3. The Vettel LeClerc situation in Ferrari is going to be contentious. I honestly think that leclerc is a faster driver than Vettel at this point but there will be a bunch of politics to favor vettel...which will cause strife. If all things were equal leclerc would probably be Hamilton's true rival. I foresee a mclaren 2007 situation developing over at Ferrari and it will be the talking point all year.

[Big Ben]

In 2018, when Vettel built a decent gap in the 1st half of the season, l remember saying in one of my posts that Hamilton would need to pull out something special to win the 2018 title against what was a fearsome Ferrari in Vettels hands. And that was just what Hamilton did. He produced a mesmerizing performance that saw him win his fifth title against what seemed surely a Vettel year to win the title for Ferrari.


Not that I want to downplay Hamilton's performance but the complete picture would include Ferrari's and Vettel's great ability at shooting themselves in the foot. I find it strange that Ferrari have commited publicly so early at supporting Vettel this year. Maybe they should wait and see how Leclerc performs. Vettel's not good enough to be the undisputed number one in the team.

[Zico]

Bottas to shock all of us and destroy Hamilton this year! :D

Now seriously? I'd probably go for Vettel if I was given a free bet.

[The Black Knight]

My man ofcourse, Kimi :)

LOL good one.

[Kaboom]

According to the Australian GP practice sessions, Mercedes is not slowing down this year either... Against my hopes :o

[Mia 01]

After FP 1 & 2, ther´s not much hope left.

[Bagwan]

After FP 1 & 2, ther´s not much hope left.

Cheer up , Mia .
Kimi finished FP2 in 6th !

[Mia 01]

Yeah, I know Bagwan but I also have a weak spot for Vettel, I want im to beat Lewis, and that badly.

[Bagwan]

Yeah, I know Bagwan but I also have a weak spot for Vettel, I want im to beat Lewis, and that badly.

Be happy , Mia .
The red car looks well planted while the Merc seems a bit more nervous , so the race may be different .
And , your Kimi said he made a few mistakes and thinks there's more speed in that car than a ninth place shows , so you could see a good result from him as well .
Cross your fingers and your toes .

[Nitrodaze]

We have to see what Ferrari has to offer before we can begin to sense where the potential to win the title lies. I think Ferrari has not had the opportunity to show their raw pace yet. Bahrain or China may spice things up and introduce a new twist to this interesting start of the season.

[Nitrodaze]

Well l ask again, who is going to win the drivers title of 2019?

[journeyman racer]

I'm not sure atm. But I can safely say that whoever Nitrodaze thinks will win the title is not going to. He's never correct with his interpretations and judgements.

[journeyman racer]

In 2018, when Vettel built a decent gap in the 1st half of the season,
Can you confirm how big the gap was and after which race?

I've looked up the championship standings after each race. I know after how many races Vettel led the championship and by how much.


l remember saying in one of my posts that Hamilton would need to pull out something special to win the 2018 title against what was a fearsome Ferrari in Vettels hands. And that was just what Hamilton did. He produced a mesmerizing performance that saw him win his fifth title against what seemed surely a Vettel year to win the title for Ferrari.
I think it's fair to say that you don't know what you're talking about. Ferrari haven't been fearsome since 2004.


By all accounts of what has been witnessed at winter testing, 2019 is proving to be another year similar to the 2018 season where Ferrari has once again turned up with what looks like a very fearsome car. Mercedes seem rocked by this….Mercedes have consistently out performed Ferrari in the development battle through each season since the hybrid era began .
This is all within the same post!

Do you pay attention to what's going on?

If MB have consistently out performed Ferrari in the development battle through each season of the hybrid era, then that means MB have had the best car throughout the hybrid era!

[journeyman racer]

So one could say, that Vettel is the favorite to win the drivers title.
He isn't. It's Hamilton.



That said, even with the odds strongly against him, betting against Hamilton winning the 2019 drivers title feels weird and stupid. Mercedes have consistently out performed Ferrari in the development battle through each season since the hybrid era began.
It feels weird and stupid because MB is the best car. A fact you're trying to convince yourself otherwise.


I think Hamilton takes it again in 2019 and here is why
1. firmly established his dominance over Bottas

lol

Australia was probably the first race since Canada the team support has been even and not in favour of Hamilton.

[Nitrodaze]

He isn't. It's Hamilton.



It feels weird and stupid because MB is the best car. A fact you're trying to convince yourself otherwise.


lol

Australia was probably the first race since Canada the team support has been even and not in favour of Hamilton.

I am surprised you have anything to say about anything other than Ricciado and Australia. Bravo, strange things happen everyday lol.

[journeyman racer]

Err, I do say things other than Ricciardo and Australia. You just don't pay attention.

[journeyman racer]

Well, I've looked up the stats, and they defy Nitrodaze's interpretation of last season.

Vettel led the standings 6 times, after Australia, Bahrain, China, Canada, Austria and Britain. He led for retrospectively 7, 17, 9, 1, 1 and 8pts.

If his biggest lead was 17pts after rd2 in Bahrain. Where was this decent gap Vettel built in the first half of the season? One where Hamilton supposedly had to look deep within his character and overcome all odds (despite driving the better car) to accomplish this incredible feat?

Also within the Aus-BritGP timeframe, Hamilton led the standings by as big as 17pts, only to lose it as well.

[Nitrodaze]

I think Ferrari's best chance of stealing one or both of the championship titles on the table was for them to steal an early lead and then try to consolidate on that through the rest of the season. As it turned out, Mercedes has stolen the lead instead, putting Ferrari on their back foot. I have a feeling that Ferrari shall pay dearly for this turn of events. I think it is an uphill battle beating the Mercedes team with a handsome lead ahead. Ferrari has to make up over 60 points to catch up to Mercedes for the Constructors title. Vettel and Leclerc are roughly thirty points behind Hamilton and Bottas.

It would take a few bad lucks or F*ckups to bring team and drivers close to the Mercedes team and drivers. My feeling is that as Mercedes ramp up their development of the car, they may push their points advantage further away from Ferrari; particularly as we approach the halfway point of the season. It is beginning to look like a championship for Mercedes to lose rather than for Ferrari to win.

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcS3bLE8tcVLm0vbxkN3bVbAM1yLZLB10 n0pJXlY2jb66nKrb-ID

We may have a situation where the title fight is between the two Mercedes drivers. if so, with the way the points are poised, which of the two do you think would win it? Which one do you want to win it? Hamilton for his sixth world title or Bottas for his first?

It would take something special out of Bottas for Hamilton to be overcomed? We have seen glimpses of brilliance from Bottas, but Hamilton has always replied with a reminder that he is still the top dog five times world champion.

[Storm]

Mercedes, probably Hamilton

[Nitrodaze]

Mercedes, probably Hamilton

I think you are right. It is looking like a Mercedes walk over. So far Ferrari has been rudely mugged by Mercedes when Ferrari has the upper hand and when they don't. They have been bitch slapped and kicked in the balls.