Who is favorite for the 2017 F1 drivers title?

[Nitrodaze]

If we go by the current scoreboard and the clear edge that Ferrari have on Mercedes, you would have to say Vettel. But looking at how Sochi turned out, it certainly is not quite so clear who the favorite is. It is simply too early to call.

However, it is emerging that battle for the title is not a two way fight between Vettel and Hamilton as most have thought. Based on current trend, it is looking like a three way fight with Bottas well in it now. But realistically, l suspect it could also develop into a five or six way fight, if Kimi gets his head down and Redbull delivers on its promise of a better package by Barcelona GP. Having Ricciado and Verstapenn in the mix would definitely spice things up.

But if you have to put your money on it right now, who would you put your money on for the title? Before you do, some things to consider:-

1. The Mercedes disadvantage to Ferrari is an old unresolved problem that punishes the tyres more than the Ferrari does. Hence, it is inherent in the design of the car. Not likely to be tuned out without major changes to the car.

2. Ferrari are on level engine power with the Mercedes. But have an edge in the chassis architecture which has a broader setup window for the tyres than the Mercedes has. Hence are likely to win more races than Mercedes if they do not mess up their strategy.

3. Great Launching from standstill can win a driver a races as overtaking is harder with these wider cars; as Bottas has shown in Russia. Hence Mercedes can steal wins from Ferrari on occasions.

4. Mercedes would be contending with internal battles for most of the season while Ferrari seem to be emerging into a clear Number one and number two driver formation. This would mean that the Mercedes drivers would steal points from each other while Vettel would be consolidating points.

5. When Redbull joins the fray, under performing Mercedes or Ferrari cars may be punished further by a resurgent Redbull car. Constructors points would be sacrificed by bad performances by team and driver alike at Ferrari and Mercedes.

6. Mercedes do not seem to be giving their three time world champion the car he needs to take the fight to the Ferraris. Bottas is having a great showing at the moment. But when the going really gets tough which i think would do when Redbull joins the fight at the front, which of their two drivers do you think has the experience and mettle to string together a title winning campaign in the face of a rampant Vettel and Ferrari combination?

7. Vettel is driving at his best for a long time. He looks comfortable, happy and quietly confident. I cannot say that for anyone else on the grid at the moment. Hamilton is rattled, Mercedes seem be having a delayed reaction to the shock of being the second best team on the grid suddenly.

SO WITH THESE MINOR THINGS TO CONSIDER, WHO DO YOU THINK THE FAVORITE FOR THE 2017 TITLE IS?

[Hawkmoon]

All else being equal the Mercedes is still a quicker car than the Ferrari. Despite the result in Russia I expect more Mercedes front row starts than those for Ferrari so I think the advantage lies with Mercedes. Ferrari's tyre advantage will only help them on circuits where degradation is an issue. On circuits with low tyre deg it won't give them that much of an advantage as we saw in Sochi.

I don't think either car is quick enough to be able to pass the other on the circuit so track position is going to be hugely important. This is an advantage to Mercedes as they have the edge in qualifying and only need a good start to lead through turn one. This puts pressure on Ferrari's strategy which, despite some good signs this year, hasn't been a strong suit for some time.

Bottas looks stronger than Raikkonen at the moment which may or may not prove to be an advantage for Mercedes. If he's quick enough to beat Vettel but not Hamilton he'll deliver the title to the Brit. No, I don't consider him a true championship contender. If he's quick enough to beat Hamilton on occasion as well he could take points away from his team mate which will help Vettel. This will force Mercedes to consider team orders which I doubt they'll like. Raikkonen looks to be a distant fourth so probably won't have too much influence on the title.

I desperate want to see Maranello win another title but my head says Hamilton and Mercedes are favourite. It's close, so very close, and I haven't enjoyed a season this much for years!

[Tazio]

I'm thinking that Mercedes will be bringing major modifications to Spain, including weight reduction.

A gap between the two front runners could easily open if Mercedes bring along an updated car to Barcelona that not only carries the aerodynamic and engine steps that all teams will be aiming to bring with this first major upgrade of the season, but also addresses its weight issue.
https://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2017/05/analysis-f1-treading-a-fine-line-on-competition-will-updates-in-spain-tip-the-balance/
I don't know that Mercedes will "out update" Ferrari, but I have a sense that they will.

[Nitrodaze]

I'm thinking that Mercedes will be bringing major modifications to Spain, including weight reduction.
It would have to be a completely new chassis; lighter and shorter for it to matter. If Ferrari also turn up with mods for Spain, it may neutralize whatever performance gain Mercedes brings to Spain.

I think, if Mercedes get it wrong with their mods at Spain, they could be in danger of drifting further behind into the clutches of the Redbull. Most people are worried that Mercedes may turn up with mods that could put them firmly into the untouchable position they have enjoyed the last three years. I kind of wonder if the 2017 car has the scope for such a leap forward. If they cannot widen the setup window for the tyres, they would be on their back foot for the rest of the season.

[Tazio]

It would have to be a completely new chassis; lighter and shorter for it to matter. ,.

The Mercedes has raced in the first four races is 6kg overweight - partly as a consequence of the original gearbox having to be replaced pre-season by a heavier unit.
A reconfigured version of the original lighter gearbox is set to be part of the Barcelona upgrade, along with suspension changes front and rear and a general weight-saving programme that should allow the team to revert to being able to use ballast to vary the weight distribution from track to track.
I think we are going to have to wait and see in this arena!

[Nitrodaze]

I think we are going to have to wait and see in this arena!

I get ya, it feels like going out on a prayer betting against the Mercedes. They always seem to manage to pull something out of the bag. For the sake of seeing a proper battle between Hamilton and Vettel, l hope they sort it out.

[Nitrodaze]

The new W08 Mercedes looks awesome. And it seems to have good pace but we haven't seen the Ferrari in full flight yet to make a direct comparison. Ham44 seem to be on top of his Sochi woes. It is looking like its going to be a great weekend.

[Nitrodaze]

With a Hamilton win in Barcelona and DNFs for Bottas and Raikonen, it is seeming like this season is developing into a battle of Champions. I remember a few years back when Vettel was winning in a Redbull and Hamilton was in a less competitive Maclaren, many said a head to head between Vettel and Hamilton would be close but many were divided as to which of the two would edge above the other. Now this season gives us a great opportunity to see how these two great world champions fair against each other in almost similar performance cars.

With the gaps between Vettel and Raikonen, Hamilton to Bottas being in excess of a race win, you would say that with the stiff competition between the two illustrious teams; Mercedes and Ferrari, that a clear number one and number two driver formation has emerged in both teams. However, this is F1 where anything is possible, particularly for Bottas.

That said, for the constructors championship, each driver must out perform his counterpart in the opposing team to ensure success on the constructors front. More important is that any operational or strategic mistake would be very expensive. Hence the team that wins the constructors championship would be the one that did the best job and took full advantages of the opportunities that presented themselves over the season. Much like the smart thinking of Mercedes at Barcelona. A race Ferrari lost rather than were beaten on pure racing.

[Zico]

Hence the team that wins the constructors championship would be the one the did the best job and took full advantages of the opportunities that presented themselves over the season. Much like the smart thinking of Mercedes at Barcelona. A race Ferrari lost rather than were beaten on pure racing.


Yes, I think Ferrari didn't pay enough attention to Mercs long run performance in free practice where they looked to have improved dramatically. That isn't criticism though...
It appears that Merc have finally found the solution to their tyre wear Achilles heel, I also wrongly thought that Lewis's tyres would go off and he'd have Seb right up behind him in the closing laps.. but Lewis even banged in a fastest lap of the race with only 2 laps to go!

I feel that Mercedes probably have a better chance at the WCC with a slightly stronger driver pairing than Ferrari in Botas being slightly more preferable to Kimi, but who will win the WDC is still anyone's guess.

[Nitrodaze]

Based on what l have seen in Barcelona, l would stick my neck out and Say Vettel is favorite at this point. Hamilton seem to be physically struggling to compete at the level Vettel is driving. He would struggle to keep up the fight with Vettel over a full season with that level of fitness.

[AndyL]

Based on what l have seen in Barcelona, l would stick my neck out and Say Vettel is favorite at this point. Hamilton seem to be physically struggling to compete at the level Vettel is driving. He would struggle to keep up the fight with Vettel over a full season with that level of fitness.

Barcelona is certainly one of the tougher circuits in terms of G forces, but there are other tough ones later in the season and with hotter temperatures too. It could definitely be a factor. What we saw with Lewis in Barcelona was really surprising to me though. I wonder if he might have been affected by some minor illness.

[The Black Knight]

Barcelona is certainly one of the tougher circuits in terms of G forces, but there are other tough ones later in the season and with hotter temperatures too. It could definitely be a factor. What we saw with Lewis in Barcelona was really surprising to me though. I wonder if he might have been affected by some minor illness.

Maybe. I think it just boils down to him not being fit enough honestly. Vettel didn't have that issue and they were driving at the same pace. Some peoples bodies just react differently no matter what the conditions are. Mind you, he doesn't have a drinks bottle either so that is bound to have contributed some bit as well.

[Hawkmoon]

Yes, I think Ferrari didn't pay enough attention to Mercs long run performance in free practice where they looked to have improved dramatically. That isn't criticism though...
It appears that Merc have finally found the solution to their tyre wear Achilles heel, I also wrongly thought that Lewis's tyres would go off and he'd have Seb right up behind him in the closing laps.. but Lewis even banged in a fastest lap of the race with only 2 laps to go!

I feel that Mercedes probably have a better chance at the WCC with a slightly stronger driver pairing than Ferrari in Botas being slightly more preferable to Kimi, but who will win the WDC is still anyone's guess.

I think we'll have to wait and see whether Mercedes are on top of their tyre issues. It was pretty clear that Pirrelli brought the wrong compounds to Barcelona. Did anybody even look at the hard compound? Montreal has always been pretty hard on the tyres so I think it will be a truer test of the Mercedes tyre wear.

[Nitrodaze]

I think we'll have to wait and see whether Mercedes are on top of their tyre issues. It was pretty clear that Pirrelli brought the wrong compounds to Barcelona. Did anybody even look at the hard compound? Montreal has always been pretty hard on the tyres so I think it will be a truer test of the Mercedes tyre wear.

The Virtual Safety Car moment at Barcelona distorted the true gap between Ferrari and Mercedes. It essentially brought Mercedes into the fight with Ferrari. Otherwise, Vettel would have maintained a 10 to 20 sec gap to Hamilton by the end of the race. Mercedes won the race but they are clearly still behind Ferrari. You could say Ferrari gave away the win rather than were beaten on pure pace. I suppose you have to ask, is Ferrari ready to win another F1 championship? They have the tools to do it but seem to lack the mindset and strategic acuity of a team primed to win a F1 championship.

[Triumph]

I think Vettel is the favourite. A very interesting season to watch so far. Incidentally, I'm glad to see Bottas doing well too.

Regarding Hamilton, I don't know if this has been mentioned before (I expect it has) as I haven't been reading the threads recently, but I think that he hasn't got his head straight this year. The first clear sign of that was before the racing had even started when he announced that he wasn't using a fitness trainer this year (http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/39410617), which I thought was a bit odd, and said rather a lot about his frame of mind.

Further to that, when Hamilton said in the Monaco post-race interview that (words to the effect of) he was very happy with his performance, that was another sign that he isn't in the best frame of mind for what he needs to achieve.

Vettel has a very good car and a straight head, so I think that gives him the edge over Hamilton, assuming that the mental and mechanical balance between the two drivers remains similar to its present state.

[zako85]

It is clear that there will be a tough battle between Hamilton and Vettel, probably up to the final race of season.

[Nitrodaze]

I have to say that Vettel has been more consistent and the Ferrari cars are without a doubt better than the Mercedes for a change. Unfortunately, Hamilton has not been consistent so far. Bottas has outdriven him when the car is in its worst state. We can put this to driving style more than anything else.

However, at the rate that Vettel is going, it would soon be an uphill battle for Hamilton to climb. That said, the constructors title is also at stake. The Mercedes W08 is fast but dogged with what seems like a knife edge setup window, when it is good, it is comfortably within reach of the Ferrari. But when it is bad as we saw in Monaco, It is easily within the reach of the Redbull.

I am beginning to think that 2017 is a year for Ferrari to win or lose on their own. Mercedes have turn up to the 2017 fight with a half decent chassis when Ferrari finally found their mojo. It would take some doing for Hamilton and Mercedes to beat the Vettel - Ferrari combination this season. And l don't agree that Hamilton has not got his head straight this year, all we have been seeing is a world champion who knows that he has not got the tools to do battle against a better Ferrari car with Vettel in it.

[Owain]

I agree - Ferrari and Vettel this year. Thank goodness.

[Hawkmoon]

Bottas qualified 0.045s behind Raikkonen at Monaco, a circuit that played to Ferrari's strengths - not a power circuit, better suits shorter wheelbase cars, soft end of the tyre spectrum, high track temperature. The Mercedes might have a narrow sweet spot on setup but it's definitely quick over a lap. Canada will suit the silver cars more with the only question mark being tyre wear. It's traditionally been a tough circuit on tyres which should benefit Ferrari. If the red cars out-qualify the silver cars in Montreal then I'd definitely say it's advantage Ferrari and Vettel.

[Nitrodaze]

Bottas qualified 0.045s behind Raikkonen at Monaco, a circuit that played to Ferrari's strengths - not a power circuit, better suits shorter wheelbase cars, soft end of the tyre spectrum, high track temperature. The Mercedes might have a narrow sweet spot on setup but it's definitely quick over a lap. Canada will suit the silver cars more with the only question mark being tyre wear. It's traditionally been a tough circuit on tyres which should benefit Ferrari. If the red cars out-qualify the silver cars in Montreal then I'd definitely say it's advantage Ferrari and Vettel.

I agree, we should give the Mercedes the benefit of the doubt and see how they recover from this setback in the coming races. It has been a great season so far as Ferrari finally deliver on their promise to take the fight to the Silver Arrow. It was not pretty how they went about Monaco, but the end seem to justify the means as Vettel is now a full race win ahead of Hamilton and Ferrari are comfortably in the lead of the constructors championship with seventeen points cushion to the Mercedes.

Bring on Canada!

[N. Jones]

Fernando.
He is going to win every single race this year!

[Zico]

I think Vettel is the favourite. A very interesting season to watch so far. Incidentally, I'm glad to see Bottas doing well too.

Regarding Hamilton, I don't know if this has been mentioned before (I expect it has) as I haven't been reading the threads recently, but I think that he hasn't got his head straight this year. The first clear sign of that was before the racing had even started when he announced that he wasn't using a fitness trainer this year (http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/39410617), which I thought was a bit odd, and said rather a lot about his frame of mind.

Yes, I also found that decision a bit worrying.
He has huge natural ability but if he has lost interest in putting in the time and dedication to fitness required to achieve consistent top performances, you can bet his dedication will also be lacking in other areas.

I have a sneaky feeling that we might see Lewis retiring from F1 in the not too distant future.

I can just picture his mug on a Hip Hop or Rap CD cover featuring Pdiddy, Pharel, Bieber and the Williams sisters in a group called....

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _


Answers on a postcard folks..




I see he has been practicing but still has some work to do.. :p

https://youtu.be/7OnrZJnK5Ds

[Zico]

I actually just found a real recording of his own music.. my opinion still stands... :p


https://youtu.be/r2zepN3Fm2g

[Nitrodaze]

I actually just found a real recording of his own music.. my opinion still stands... :p


https://youtu.be/r2zepN3Fm2g

I think his music is cool. Not groundbreaking but l would drive in my Merc with that playing.

That aside, l think Hamilton is at his best when he is behind on points and trying to catch up. The next few races are certainly going to be interesting. I would think the mutual friendliness between Vettel and Hamilton would change into a fierce rivalry as they fight each other for supremacy before we reach Abu Dhabi.

I also think Brasil and Abu Dhabi are going to be a must watch races. Assuming Mercedes get their act together as we really do not want Ferrari to run away with a huge lead, such that the season turns into another one horse race.

[Nitrodaze]

I saw this great article By Sky's Mark Hughes which explained what Mercedes main issues are this year. Check it our here:-

http://www.skysports.com/f1/news/32420/10899189/understanding-the-mercedes-diva-can-this-w08-really-win-an-f1-title


It kinda looks like Mercedes are not properly in contention this year. It may well be a Ferrari party to the finish line at Abu Dhabi.

[Triumph]

I actually just found a real recording of his own music.. my opinion still stands... :p


https://youtu.be/r2zepN3Fm2g


That sounded pretty good actually. Compare Lewis' effort with that of Jacques Villeneuve!

[The Black Knight]

That sounded pretty good actually. Compare Lewis' effort with that of Jacques Villeneuve!

They are both shite to be honest.

I think Sebastien Vettel is going to win this years drivers title. He doesn't have a strong teammate and has the full team support, that was made clear in Monaco.

Mercedes have the possibility of winning but only by supporting Lewis. Bottas is already too far behind to be considered a real contender and, unless something is done very quickly, Vettel will soon be out of sight. Given Mercedes policy of not having number ones, I am going to pick Vettel to be this years WDC.

[The Black Knight]

I think Vettel is the favourite. A very interesting season to watch so far. Incidentally, I'm glad to see Bottas doing well too.

Regarding Hamilton, I don't know if this has been mentioned before (I expect it has) as I haven't been reading the threads recently, but I think that he hasn't got his head straight this year. The first clear sign of that was before the racing had even started when he announced that he wasn't using a fitness trainer this year (http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/39410617), which I thought was a bit odd, and said rather a lot about his frame of mind.

Further to that, when Hamilton said in the Monaco post-race interview that (words to the effect of) he was very happy with his performance, that was another sign that he isn't in the best frame of mind for what he needs to achieve.

Vettel has a very good car and a straight head, so I think that gives him the edge over Hamilton, assuming that the mental and mechanical balance between the two drivers remains similar to its present state.

I think he has it more right than he had last year. He is working harder with the team but I still don't think it is going to be enough. To me, there is a big difference between Lewis and Vettel, Vettel simply works harder. Talent wise I think Lewis just about edges it, but when it comes to working hardest with the team, then you can't really look past Vettel for that. This is probably why he will end up with more world titles at the end of his career than Hamilton will. Not that Hamilton really cares I'd imagine. He already has the 3 he wanted but I just can't see Hamilton going down as one of the best of all time given his current performances and career path when compared with the likes of Schumacher, Prost etc

[Nitrodaze]

I think he has it more right than he had last year. He is working harder with the team but I still don't think it is going to be enough. To me, there is a big difference between Lewis and Vettel, Vettel simply works harder. Talent wise I think Lewis just about edges it, but when it comes to working hardest with the team, then you can't really look past Vettel for that. This is probably why he will end up with more world titles at the end of his career than Hamilton will. Not that Hamilton really cares I'd imagine. He already has the 3 he wanted but I just can't see Hamilton going down as one of the best of all time given his current performances and career path when compared with the likes of Schumacher, Prost etc

Itthink you have the difference between Vettel and Hamilton pegged down. But l think it is too early to write off Hamilton. I think he would equal or surpass Prost. The benchmark is Schumacher, Vettel and Hamilton are quietly aiming for that benchmark. Hamilton's unspoken desire is to first match Vettel on championships. 2017 would have been the opportunity to do so if the Mercedes had managed to continue their dominance. In the scheme of things, Vettel seem set to extend that and get even closer to the benchmark.

There is more to come from these two world champions, hence it would be way too early to say one way or the other how things would turn out for either of them. Even Eddie Jordan hasn't ventured to speculate on this.

[Bagwan]

Lewis seems a lot calmer this year , and able to take the knock-backs easier .
Is it because he's training himself ?
Is it because he gets along with his team mate better ?
Has he added hemp seed to his granola ?
Has he had the spelling in one of his tattoos corrected ?

Who knows ?
But , I think he's got a better chance at it this year because his head seems screwed on a bit tighter .

And so , for two reasons , one being that Merc is big and not standing still , and the other being that the reds haven't been at the big table with the grown-ups consistently since the days of Michael , being that they always seem to be able to unsettle themselves with a fit of temper , I think Lewis will win it , and Sebastian will swear about it .

[jens]

From what I understand, it is pretty much guaranteed Vettel is going to get some grid penalties later in the season. So it is likely he is going to start from the back of the field from, say, two races. Considering, how tough overtaking is this year, he would do well to finish around 4th-5th then. Two such races with two Hamilton wins, and the current gap of 25 points would be gone.

So in my view Vettel would need to keep at least the 25-point margin he currently has to somewhat balance out the handicap, which is bound to arrive later in the season. So I think the championship is still very much open. However, from Hamilton/Mercedes point of view it is also clear that they need to regularly fight for wins and at worst start trading wins from now onwards. They can't afford Monaco-kind of weekends more.

Fundamentally the Mercedes car is fast, about as fast as Ferrari. But it seems kind of difficult to set up. Whether they can overcome this issue during the season or not, is also important. Because otherwise they can fight for race wins pretty consistently (well, except at Monaco).

Any DNF-s is also going to play a big role, because it possibly means a 25-point-swing. How are these going to pan out, also remain to be seen. Vettel looks good at the moment, as everybody has said, but F1 history tells that this is far from over. Especially with cars performing as close as they are. Remember, what happened in 2007 and 2008. Or 2006.

[AndyL]

I just can't see Hamilton going down as one of the best of all time given his current performances and career path when compared with the likes of Schumacher, Prost etc

I think your assessment was a good one, but this specific element of it I disagree with. Lewis is the kind of prodigious talent that tends to be romanticised by history, so I think he will be rated as a legend even if he doesn't completely fulfill the potential of that talent.

[Nitrodaze]

Vettel put in a magnificent drive of a champion to limit his loses to 13 points at Canada. But it goes to show show that the margin for error is tight and punished severely. Ferrari and Vettel cannot afford any sloppy mistakes if they want to win one of the title of 2017. But more so for Mercedes and Hamilton, and Hamilton of Mercedes mistake could easily gift the championship to Ferrari.

Vettel and Ferrari are still favorites, but it is increasing becoming difficult to rule out Hamilton and Mercedes.

[Nitrodaze]

Who is your money on NOW?

[Duncan]

This could get interesting later on:

http://www.fia.com/file/59688/download?token=LKYYAOzI

All the Mercedes powered teams are in good shape.

Vettel has used his full season's allocation of turbos already. Both Red Bulls and Both Renaults have used their full season's allocation of MGU-Hs, and both McLarens have used at least a full season's allocation of every single component.

Penalties are going to be a big factor in the second half of the season. Hamilton has got to be the number one favorite at this point, barring some unforseen catastrophe.

These rules have really got to go...

[Duncan]

One interesting feature of that list I noticed:

Calos Sainz has used one more MGU-K than either works Renault driver. With that sole exception, all of the customer Renault drivers are doing at least as well on reliability as either of the works Renault drivers, on every single component. What's up with that? Why is the works Renault team performing so badly on reliability? Do they have thermal issues?

[AndyL]

One interesting feature of that list I noticed:

Calos Sainz has used one more MGU-K than either works Renault driver. With that sole exception, all of the customer Renault drivers are doing at least as well on reliability as either of the works Renault drivers, on every single component. What's up with that? Why is the works Renault team performing so badly on reliability? Do they have thermal issues?

Although it's not so apparent right now, there was a similar situation last year with the Mercedes teams. To some extent with the Ferrari teams too. The customer teams were apparently getting better reliability.
It could be that without as much detailed info about the limits of engine performance, the customer teams are forced to be more conservative with designing their installation. So that could explain why a factory team have more thermal issues than a customer team.
Another possible explanation might be if the customer teams aren't being given access to the same high power engine modes - or are given tighter limits on how much they can use them.