What is the 2018 grid going to look like?

[Nitrodaze]

Firstly, lets look at those drivers that are not happy at the moment. We shall analyse further down the page.

Vettel
Vettel is not so happy with reliability issues that have bedeviled him this season. The inability to access the raw pace of the Ferrari which is reputed to be on par with the Mercedes consistently is also a bother. To make thing less interesting is the destabilizing pressure for the team to deliver. The Horner is quoted to tip a Vettel move to Mercedes in 2018.

Ricciado
Ricciado comprehensively trashed the Mercedes pair on merit at Monaco this year. As the flag came down to close the qualifying session, the smilly Australian said on the radio, "this is my time". The gritty Australian clearly felt the win was in the bag, but his Redbull team that typically operate with precision like a Swiss watch, made an uncharacteristic pit stop error which handed the win to a wily Hamilton. While you could put that instance to a blip in team performance. A recurrence in Spain where Ricciado was clearly favorite to win that race "certeri paribus", experienced a strange race strategy imposed on him that cost him the win. At this point, l am sure Ricciado has got to be thinking "What the devil is going on here?". While he is reeling from these shockers, his fiesty young protagonist, has been raking up the points like they were candies.
Looking at the Redbull psychology as they have played out over the years, you have got to think that Redbull see Verstapenn as another Vettel. And they are likely to throw their lot behind the dutchman going forward. Ricciado is faced with a Webber situation or jump ship to Ferrari or Mercedes in 2018 to have a real crack at the title.

Rosberg
After the sensational crash between Rosberg and Hamilton at Barcelona, it was very clear the hostility between the Mercedes pair is at a critical high. The morning after the Silverstone GP, seeing current tally of his previous 43 point lead reduced to one point must have left a sour taste to his mouth. You have to think that given a competitve car elsewhere, particularly where there is no Hamilton would be an irresistable draw for Rosberg. A swap of Rosberg for Vettel seems a play that could happen between Mercedes and Ferrari. But would Ferrari want Rosberg if there is a remote chance they could get Hamilton?

Button
The Englishman faces another uncertain spell of the season where everyone speculates his future. Over the last three years, the media, motor racing forums and tea leaf readers have speculated to no end, his exit from Mclaren and many possible new homes for him on the grid. Over the last two seasons, he has stubbornly proved a hard case to read. He has somehow held on to his seat and has put in performances that has proved why he is such an invaluable addition to the Mclaren team.
Then marner from heaven gave the rookie reserve driver the rare chance to show what he can do, thanks to Alonso's injury the put him out for one race. The headline was the rookie out qualified Button and managed to chalk up the first point for the team this season. An incredible performance that places a huge pressure on the Button seat. As usual, we are all talking about where is Button going in 2017? I certainly think Stoffel would be in a Mclaren by 2018 at the latest.

Bottas
Bottas was one of the highly rated newcomers over the 2014 and 2015 seasons and once tipped for a Ferrari drive, but finds his stock has dropped and is dropping further as the Williams car struggle to impress since the beginning of the 2016 season. At this rate, he would be unlikely to get a drive in another team if the Williams were to drop him. Occasionally, he shows flashes of the inherently untapped raw pace that he possesses. The truth is Bottas is too good for a team in the position that Williams find themselves this season. If Bottas wants a real chance at fighting for the title, he needs to get into a competitive car. He remains a strong choice for Kimi's replacement at Ferrari, but recently, there are other strong competition for that that seat.

Who else can you think about?

[AndyL]

That's a good start to figuring out who will be on the grid in 2018.

To that list of unhappy drivers I would add Alonso. I can see him being gone from F1 in 2018. If the 2017 McLaren is not more to his satisfaction, I can even see him walking part way through the season.

Another pair questions to ask is who will get the boot and who will come in.
Old-timers Kimi, Massa and Button will surely be gone by 2018. Also Alonso for the reason above. Haryanto, Ericsson and Nasr will all be vulnerable to incomers with money behind them, and I'd expect at least 2 of those 3 to not make it into the 2018 season. Kvyat I think has had his chance and will also go in order to keep Red Bull's conveyor belt moving. Jolyon Palmer is 50/50. With a year under his belt he could step up next year and cement his place in F1. But if he fails to move to the next level, he'll be out in 2018.

So who will replace them? The top 2 in GP2, Rowland and Giovanazzi, must be favourites. They are both impressing in their first full season in the formula. Rowland is well placed to take Palmer's seat. Giovanazzi needs to stop messing about with DTM and LMP, but could step into a mid-ranking F1 team with perhaps Ferrari as his ultimate goal. What would Maranello give for a successful Italian driver in a red car after all these years :)
Pierre Gasly is at the front of Red Bull's queue, but I don't know if he's quite Red Bull material. He's taken 3 years in GP2 to get a win. Could still replace Kvyat though.
One thing I am sure of is Robin Frijns will not be in F1, despite being the next big thing for the last several years: he's now in Formula E, the graveyard of F1 ambitions.

[Morte66]

Vettel, Ricciardo and Max V: As things stand these drivers have no reason to move unless Mercedes lose a driver.

Rosberg: is the German driver at Mercedes, and has scored plenty of points for them. Mercedes will keep their good thing going if the personality issues can be resolved. Rosberg is in the fastest team he's likely to get, and would be wise to stay if he can. So, it's about personality issues.

Hamilton: No reason other than personalities for him to move or the team to lose him.

So, I think the guys above will stay put unless there is a personality meltdown at Mercedes, or one of the teams inexplicably implodes.


Button: is on an eye-watering salary, the sort of deal that was made back when somebody thought the Honda PU would rock and Button would get more podiums than he currently gets points. He'll need to take a pay cut or move. I think by 2018 he'll be gone to WEC, or maybe finishing his contract at somewhere like Williams.

Alonso: if McLaren pick up he'll stay for 2017, and might perhaps still be there in 2018. If not, I think he'll retire unless a good drive falls in his lap (at least the current Williams/FI level).

Kimi R: 80/20 he will be gone in 2018. Lots of interesting possible replacements.

[Rollo]

As usual, we are all talking about where is Button going in 2017?

888 Commodore.

Not telling you where I heard that either.

[AndyL]

Based on what's just been said on the practice coverage, it seems Ericsson should be safe as houses now. Apparently the new owners of Sauber are linked to Ericsson's backers.

[Stan Reid]

I wish there'd be some more teams so the drivers would actually have to qualify for the races but that doesn't look like it's going to happen.

[jens]

2018 discussion? Where is rjbetty, when you need to predict stuff.:p:

But for me I have to say the driver line-ups are getting somewhat stale. Both Mercedes and Red Bull drivers have contracts, which last till 2018 at least. Which means Vettel most probably stays in Ferrari, because he has nowhere to go. Which means Alonso likely stays in McLaren, because he has nowhere to go.

The main question is, who is going to fill the Renault seats in the next few years - hopefully a team on the up.

[Rollo]

As usual, we are all talking about where is Button going in 2017?

Caltex 888 Commodore.

Watch this space.

[AndyL]

Caltex 888 Commodore.

Watch this space.

Is that the car that Button drove in a media event a few years ago?

[Rollo]

A popular high street chemists will pre-fabricate fifteen of its branches and install them on the site of the soon to be abandoned McLaren Technology Centre.

These Boots Are Made For Woking.

[Nitrodaze]

What is likely to happen in 2018 has a bearing on who is going where in 2017, i think. Mercedes seats only become available in 2019. Redbull is well sealed with Ricciado and Verstapenn. However, both Ferrari seats are open for change in 2018. But for the 2017 season, the following teams are still unclear of their lineup; Williams, Force India, Mclaren, Torro Rosso and Renault being the main midfield seats. Hence, any driver swapping to these midfield seats may be doing so because they know they are unlikely to get the Ferrari seats in 2018.

Which drivers are likely to move teams in the 2017 season, you may ask. Peres for one, is looking to move to a team capable of winning races in 2017. Hence l can see Peres in either the Williams or Renault.

Williams need a money bag driver like Peres. It is noticeable the Williams progress has stalled since Maldonado took his money bag to Lotus. Peres and his sponsors could really help put Williams back in the sharp end of the grid. Like Maldonado, Peres is very likely to win a race or two where the opportunity presents itself. More important to Williams is, Peres is a quick driver and very capable of getting the Williams on the podium with his unique driving style. From Peres' perspective, he his more likely to impress better in a fast Williams that is capable of winning races than a Force India that is not.

Renault may find Peres' quality as a driver more interesting than his money bags. With a change in regulations, Renault need experienced drivers in their cars to progress up the grid in 2017, hence Peres may be irresistible to Renault if they can get him. But can they convince Peres that they can win races in 2017 or 2018? From Peres' perspective, driving for a works team is every driver's ambition. A works team like Renault is more likely to win championships than a customer team like Force India or Williams. Hence Peres move to Renault makes sense and seem most likely. Besides, it would show clearly what Renault's ambition really is for 2017 and 2018.

Bottas is another driver that may become available in 2017. Frankly, l think it would be a mistake for Williams to let him go. But it may be out their hands, if Renault or Ferrari decide to have him. Maybe not Ferrari, but a Bottas - Peres line up at Renault would be a very strong pairing. Enough to cause Redbull and Ferrari to take notice. Renault would be a big lure for Bottas, being a works team. The Renault engine is increasingly becoming as competitive as the Mercedes and Ferrari. With new Regulations for 2017, Renault is a better gamble than the Williams at the moment. Hence, my money is on Bottas and Peres at Renault. That would probably mean Magnussen would end up either at Williams or Force India. I think Massa shall be going into retirement and Kyvat may be seeking employment in the Fomula e series next season. If Mclaren do not sign Vandoone, l can see him at Williams if Magnussen goes to Force India or the other way round. There is also the possibility that it turns out to be a Magnussen - Vandoone pairing at Williams. If Mclaren signs Vandoone, I can see Button along side Magnussen or Bottas at Williams to help develop the new car, if Peres goes to Renault. Alfonso Celis along side Hulkenburg at the Force India for 2017. With Pierre Gasly slotting along side Sainz, depending on how the rest of the season goes for him.

How do you see it?

[Stan Reid]

I just saw where a 13-year-old kid won a B league Nascar late model race earlier this year. Maybe a replacement for Nico next year?

[Nitrodaze]

Perez may be in the running for a Ferrari seat by end of 2018, hence may be why he has stayed put at Force India. Button taking a sabbatical sort of muddy's the water abit. But Massa retiring and Vandoone being offered Button's seat is still very much to prediction. It is still up in the air and surprise moves are still possible.

The lineup may be as follows for the teams still undeclared:-

Williams - Bottas, Nasr [Werhlein is also a possibility but depends on funding]
Renault - Verne or Sirotkin , Magnussen
Manor - Ocon, [Alex Lynn if Werhlein goes to Williams] or [Sirotkin if Werhlein goes to Renault]
Torro Rosso - Sainz, Pierre Gasly [Kyvat may also keep his seat, but l doubt it]

If it goes as above, then 2018 may be unchanged from the 2017 lineup but changes at Mercedes, Ferrari and possibly Redbull can be expected going into 2019. I am guessing that the following may occur in 2019:-

Mercedes - Vettel, Werhlien
Ferrari - Hamilton, Peres
Redbull - Verstappen, Sainz
Williams - Nasr, Lynn
Force India - Bottas, Grosjean
Renault - Sirotkin, Rosberg
Mclaren - Vandoone, Ricciado
Torro Rosso - Gasly, ??
Saubar - Magnussen, Erickssen
Haas - Hulkenberg or [Rossi or another American], Gutierrez

What is your prediction?

[N. Jones]

14 teams, 28 cars, points to eighth place.
Dreamin'!

[Nitrodaze]

14 teams, 28 cars, points to eighth place.
Dreamin'!

May still happen with the new owners taking over. I like the current format of points to tenth place. It helps team morale and a fairer prize money distribution.

[Nitrodaze]

The lineup may be as follows for the teams still undeclared:-

Williams - Bottas, Nasr [Werhlein is also a possibility but depends on funding]
Renault - Verne or Sirotkin , Magnussen
Manor - Ocon, [Alex Lynn if Werhlein goes to Williams] or [Sirotkin if Werhlein goes to Renault]
Torro Rosso - Sainz, Pierre Gasly [Kyvat may also keep his seat, but l doubt it]


Hands up, l got all of the above wrong. I was kind of blind sighted by Stroll but it is great to have a Canadian on the grid. A F3 champion suggest he would be rapid. Also great that Kyvat has kept his seat at Torro Rosso, l personally think he should have tried to get into a renault seat. I also did not see Hulkenburg departing Force India, l sort of expected Peres to move elsewhere like Williams or Renault. But Renault was a great move for The Hulk. it is great that Palmer gets to keep his seat. It is also a great move for Magnussen to head to Haas. Hope they build on their great entry year in 2017.
It was puzzling though that Force India picks Ocon over Wehrlein, not sure why they thought Ocon was a better choice? I wonder if Mercedes has told Force India to steer clear of their future hope. All in all, l did not get a single placement right. Hence you could safely write off my 2018 guesses. Well apart from guessing Bottas would stay at Williams and Sainz plus Kyvat (sort of) would stay at Torro Rosso.

We get to see the business side of Haas as well, as they were quick to jettison Gutierrez who has under performed compared to the more experienced Grosjean. Magnussen would give Grosjean a run for his money l am sure.

[AndyL]

Re Ocon vs Wehrlein, there was something that happened in the last race that prompted Martin Brundle to comment that it showed why other teams were losing interest in Wehrlein; but I can't remember what it was. Did anyone else catch that?

According to JamesAllenOnF1, Ocon going to FI was a part of the same deal that sent Hulkenberg from FI to Renault.

Gutierrez, I didn't think he'd actually done that badly, but Magnussen is surely a much better prospect so a good move for Haas.

[Nitrodaze]

Re Ocon vs Wehrlein, there was something that happened in the last race that prompted Martin Brundle to comment that it showed why other teams were losing interest in Wehrlein; but I can't remember what it was. Did anyone else catch that?

According to JamesAllenOnF1, Ocon going to FI was a part of the same deal that sent Hulkenberg from FI to Renault.

Gutierrez, I didn't think he'd actually done that badly, but Magnussen is surely a much better prospect so a good move for Haas.
I think in Mexico, Wehrlein had a problem with the car which he was attempting to sort out himself. But the Manor pit wall told him on the radio to switch the engine off because of high temperatures l think, but Werhlein carried on fiddling to get going for abit longer than the team liked. He eventually switched the engine off and there was no damage. But it was an incident that did not go without notice.

I would be quite surprised if that incident has swayed Force India away from him. On paper, Wehrlein is the better choice. He is clearly quick. He has managed to chalk up one championship point in an inferior car compared to the competition. Prior to the aforementioned incident, he has been a very trouble free driver. He is also very likeable and press friendly. That is not to suggest that Ocon isn't.

On Ocon, he has had a number of test days in the Force India. Hence, he is not that inexperienced of F1 cars. That said, Wehrein has had half a season's experience of driving the Manor, hence appears the stronger of the pair. I suppose Force India has seen something in Ocon which is not apparent to us.

The question really is, is the move to Force India the right one for either of them at this time. Like Stroll who has to get quickly up to within 3 hundredth of a second of Bottas's time. Ocon would be expected to get up to pace with Perez in a shorter time than Stroll. He didn't quite catchup with Wehrlein so far, hence Perez may make him look ordinary which may blight his prospects for a Mercedes seat.

Wehrlein on the other hand just has to beat whomever replaces Ocon in the Manor.