First perceptions of the 2016 season

[Nitrodaze]

The cars are louder and fastest hybrid yet. Hamilton at Bahrain beat the fastest lap time set by the old three litre V12 engine. Which demonstrates how incredibly brilliant the hybrid engine technology is.

Ferrari are closer to Mercedes, close enough to punish them more severely when they [Mercedes] make a mistake. That said, the Ferrari is hampered by reliability issues which sort of dampens the extent by which Ferrari could capitalize on the Mercedes off moments. Talking about Ferrari, Kimi has noticeably upped his game and is a closer threat to Vettel in the other Ferrari.

Rosberg has carried over his advantage of adapting better to the evolution of the W06 from the last three races of 2015 into 2016, with Hamilton looking more ill at ease with the new Mercedes clutch. However, Rosberg has won two easy races with no real challenges from Hamilton or Vettel. We will see how he fairs in China, if Hamilton and Vettel can sort out their car gremlins and take the fight to Rosberg. If Rosberg can win the next two races, you have to say he is looking good at lifting the driver's title this year. Hamilton seem to be still recovering from achieving 3 driver's title, Rosberg has to capitalize on this moment without mistakes to have a foot firmly ahead.

We are clearly set for a great season of racing with Ferrari so close to the Mercedes and Hamilton down by 17 points to a strong Rosberg charge forward with two wins.

The Haas team has turned up in the midfield and given the typical leading teams in the midfield bloody noses as they perform significantly better than would otherwise have been expected. Some say the help from Ferrari was more significant than was expected, others question the rules. Whatever the case, Haas is over the moon with such a great start. And what seemed like a daft idea of Grosjean moving from a potential Renault team to a new entrant to f1, has become a fairytale that has propelled Grosjean into the limelight, the American Dream as he put it. We would see if they can keep up with the rate of development of the other midfield teams as the year progresses.

Two of the leading midfield teams that has suffered bloody noses from the Haas success are Williams and Force India. While the qualifying pace of the Williams was great, its race pace was questionable. They are still weak in the race strategy department which has prevented them form retaining their great track positions at the start of the race in Bahrain. And has seen their cars drift backwards during the race. Most notably, both cars were overtaken by the Haas car to 5th position in Bahrain. The Redbull seem poised to snatch 3rd position in the constructors championship from Williams. The Force India was just simply off their game as its owner answers financial malpractice questions from authorities in India. Distracted it would seem.

Toro Rosso was surprisingly disappointing as they fail to capitalize on their perceived advantage of having the 2015 engine. 6th in Bahrain was good for Verstapenn, but not having both cars in the point is failing yo maximize the opportunity. The 2016 Renault engine in the Redbull chassis has turned out to be a better combination than anticipated. And promises to be more competitive as the season progresses. Which implies that Torro Rosso may not beat its sister team by mid-season as many anticipated.

Radio silence during the race was abit eerie for couch spectators watching the race on TV. That train of information that gave us an idea of what was going on with the car and the team strategy is no longer available. The bright side is the drivers are no longer muppets. And now have to manage their race on their own. It was obvious some drivers were struggling to cope with this. Most noteable was the Verstapenn frustration as he begged for team orders to allow him to pass his team mate which in my opinion was not in the spirit of the new change. He should make the pass on his own without the help of the team.

It would seem the grid is no longer three tiered but two tiered. The so called midfield has disappeared. We now have the race and the sharp end. The Sharp end consisting of the Mercedes and the Ferrari's. The race consisting of the rest of the teams in a much closer bunch of cars with varying advantages based on tyre strategies. Teams in this group get punished twofold when they don't get their act together; firstly, the knockout qualy punishes them fiercely if they are poor in their car preparation by qualy time. Secondly, if they make a poor race strategy. Track position is golden in this part of the grid as well as making the right tyre choices at the right portion of the race. Haas has benefited greatly from this aspect of the racing.

We have seen some great new rookies to the sport. Werhlein has really put the Manor firmly in the mix of the midfield. The Mercedes engine in the Manor has effectively removed the so called back marker tier of the grid. Having a chance to see Vandoorne in action has given us a tantalizing glimpse of what is to come in 2017 or 2018. Vandoorne finishing in the points at Bahrain, suggest that the Mclaren-Honda has stepped forward markedly. With a more experienced Alonso or Button at the helm, the Mclaren-Honda may well have finished higher. It would be exciting to see an Alonso - Vandoorne pairing. It would be Alonso - Hamilton over again. Ofcourse it would depend on whether Vandoorne is as good as Hamilton was when he was paired with a much younger and hungrier Alonso; in comparison.

Redbull seem to be on course to close the gap to Ferrari, if the rate of engine development at Renault continues. Ferrari having the Redbulls on their tailcoat may be distracted them from taking the fight to Mercedes. Besides the Ferrari seems weak in reliability and may be vulnerable to a Redbull onslaught.

Magnussen has had a poor start to the season. He does not seem to be grasping his opportunity in a Renault car with both hands. Palmer has out performed him in the last two races, which really shows what a racer Palmer is.

Back to 2015 Qualy format for China; hooray :-)

[Tazio]

making the right tyre choices at the right portion of the race. Haas has benefited greatly from this aspect of the racing.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hqHsMxq-mwE/VHY7RWFxW-I/AAAAAAAAQ58/Tjr4OA2T5-U/s1600/dms1425no160.jpg

I'm wondering if this gal is behind that aggressive tyre call for RoGro in Bahrain :angel:

[zako85]

Perhaps the racing will not be as dull as last season because of new tire compounds that did make strategies more interesting.

[Storm]

Mercedes cannot be caught by Ferrari unless they increase reliability along with performance. That's going to be nigh on impossible right away.

Ham v Ros might be interesting for a few races until Hamilton can get his sh*t together.

Qualifying was horrible, so switching back was inevitable.
Some of the new cars and liveries look good on telly.

[airshifter]

A good overall analysis Nitrodaze. I'm in agreement with much of it.

I think there is potential for the Ferrari's to break up the boredom of the Mercedes dominance. Though I wish no ill will on Mercedes I'd love to see both Ferrari's make it to the podium (in the same race) in at least one race this year. And I think there is at least a chance of that. I suspect Merc will still come out well on top, but hope it's closer.

I've always liked Kimi, and I think Seb will still get the best of him, but it's good to see Kimi up the game again.

Hass. What is there to say? Above and beyond any expectations for a new team. I expected them to be good and predicted points finishes, but didn't think they would happen in both of the races, nor so early in the season. Outstanding effort.

I picked Vandoorne for my FGP team, even though he isn't reserve for the drivers I have, just to acknowledge him and his talent. And though I didn't get the point he scored for my FGP score, he scored it in his first race! And first weekend in the car. I wonder how many others have done that? I see multiple offers for him, put him in the mix of "silly season" now.

Nico vs Lewis should be interesting. I think Lewis always used the pit radio info better, but now with that changed it might hurt his driving some. Combine that with Nico not only doing well in qually but the races and things could change this year. I hope it still results in a good fight and clean driving.

[Tazio]

With The Boss taking a 5 place grid drop, it looks like Nico should extend his lead in the WDC. It will be interesting watching LH fight his way towards the front!

[Stan Reid]

Yes, Haas, to be a broken record. It will now be a disappointment if they don't sneak on to the podium at least once. And Manor, although still in the bottom tier, does look like they actually belong in F1 now.

[rjbetty]

Hi everyone. I haven't watched the season but did read up on the first two races. Here are my thoughts (bear in mind they might not be accurate as I haven't been studying in depth or anything!

The Season
Wow! As hoped the grid does look to have bunched up a fair bit, resulting in more interesting possibilities. Yeah Mercedes should win most races with Ferrari some as well, but further behind it looks great!

I didn't know anything about this qualifying so I can't say much, but glad it's sorted as people didn't seem happy.

I'm extremely disappointed the token system has been scrapped altogether. I know it was too restrictive but it's been there for over 10 years for a reason. Has F1 so soon forgotten about the bad old days of the early/mid 2000s? A much more open token system might have been preferable, where there is some freedom to develop in-season. But now, by throwing out the baby with the bathwater altogether, there is a risk of teams spending into oblivion, a consequence that has ruined many a great racing series in the past. D'OH!

As for the future, I'm hearing downforce will be increased. I think this is a huge mistake. I'm sure even I can see that LESS, not more, downforce creates better racing; increased braking zones, more difficult cars which lead to mistakes and actually challenge the best drivers in the world! I mean, check out the rain races where GRIP is reduced. They tend to be the most exciting and the best for on track action. Now cars will be more on rails than ever.


Mercedes
Their best ever points haul after the opening 2 races mask the fact that things look closer this year, and Rosberg's the one in the lead. I do think Mercedes want Nico to have a title this year so both drivers can be strong and happy, and for the PR, so it's his turn this time I think.
Predicted WCC Standing at Season's end - 1st

Ferrari
Well it's looking well poised except for reliability, but Seb should be right in the mix for a super 3-way fight. Je may have a slower car, but none is better at optimising every point and opportunity as Vettel. Hopefully if the car is really that good, Kimi can claim at least one swansong win.
WCC Prediction - 2nd

Red Bull - Tag Heuer
A bit of a surprise that they seem a clear 3rd, reading between the lines. Looks like the Renault engine has come on some way after all, after predictions RBR would suffer further this year. Adrian Newey has often been pessimistic pre-season (remember 2013?!) - I don't know if he's being prudent or deliberatley misleading. I notice they have a new paint job this year, which is nice.
WCC Prediction - 3rd

Williams - Mercedes
A great disappointment. As for Bottas, he simply must assert himself over Massa this year or he will officially join Nico Hulkenberg in nearly-man-land - it doesn't look great so far but hopefully he can turn up the performance.
WCC Prediction - 4th

Haas - Ferrari
Wow! 18pts in their first two races, who would have thought it? This has surpassed my expectations even though secretly I was increasingly quietly optimistic as time went on over last year and this. In my Grand Prix 2 season I set the performance for Grosjean to have three Q3 appearances over the season but it didn't turn out that way, and it looks like he will do rather better than that. I said more than once that teams who take an extra year to prepare tend to be respectable (think Stewart, Toyota, even Sauber), but I worry about second-season-syndrome (those same 3 teams didn't really progress as expected in their second seasons). I think Gutierrez, though no world-beater, is underrated.
WCC Prediction - 8th

Toro Rosso - Ferrari
Great to see the young drivers coming on and getting quicker and more in the mix. I wonder if they will drop off over the year, though I expect Max will counter that by improving himself. I think he will relatively cream Sainz, and it would be fantastic if he really can have a Vettel 2008 sort of season, with lots of points and a place in the top 10 at season's end. I wonder if he can get a podium somewhere.
WCC Prediction - 7th

Force India - Mercedses
As expected, in the midfield. I wonder if Hulkenberg leaves for Le Mans, and maybe Kvyat can take his place?
WCC Prediction - 6th

McLaren - Honda
One point and one 14th place; on the face of it things still look rubbish. Reading between the lines however, I believe that is a great chassis there, and they are going to make a real challenge for 4th in the WCC imo. I think RBR are maybe too far ahead, which was unexpected. Great to see Vandoorne get a chance. That will be a huge help in getting a full drive (stick him in a Manor!)
WCC Prediction - 5th

Renault
Better than expected, just like Red Bull - now what is the common link there? Palmer has surprised me! I have noticed that historically, a driver even if very experienced, if they are new to a team, will initially struggle more than an incumbent (even if the incumbent is a rookie like Palmer), before the more experienced driver asserts himself over the season (think Williams & Sauber 2014 for example, and their drivers)
WCC Prediction - 9th

Sauber-Ferrari
Oh dear. Reading between the lines, they actually don't look that far off the pace, maybe even slightly quicker than last year. Trouble is, everyone else has moved forward.
WCC Prediction - 10th

Manor - Mercedes
Look to be about where I hoped, about 2.5-3sec off the pace for the lead car. That should be points territory. Very exciting to see them able to fight after all they've been through. I'm happy to see I correctly guessed the driver line up in my simulation!
WCC Prediction - 11th


Well those are my thoughts. I may or may not pop up again sometime. I don't know how closely I want to follow things right now (this is similar to where I was at during 2007 before stopping watching altogether for a few years at the end of that season)

[Nitrodaze]

@rjbetty, l hope you can find a way to watch one race this year. All the silly stuff is off the track. On track, this is turning out to be a cracking season. The main downer is Ferrari are unable to turn their engine up to full wack due to reliability concerns, which would have definitely put them right in Mercedes face. The midfield for; lack of a better word, is crazily exciting. That is where the real racing is happening.
What l would say is, if you only want to watch one race this year, Canada would be the one. Ferrari are due to introduce an upgraded engine which is earmarked to be on par with the Mercedes engine. If this is the case and they have managed to get on top of their reliability woes, this race is likely to be a cracking race at the front. With Ferrari actually taking the fight to Mercedes rather than pretending to be.

[Stan Reid]

Ferrari are due to introduce an upgraded engine which is earmarked to be on par with the Mercedes engine. If this is the case and they have managed to get on top of their reliability woes, this race is likely to be a cracking race at the front. With Ferrari actually taking the fight to Mercedes rather than pretending to be.

According to China FP2, maybe they've already gotten the mill up and running. Either that or they've found a way to sneak in some popped fuel j/k

[Nitrodaze]

According to China FP2, maybe they've already gotten the mill up and running. Either that or they've found a way to sneak in some popped fuel j/k

I think the tyre pressure problems that all the teams were facing gave the illusion that Ferrari were closer in qualy. That does not seem to be the case, particularly if a Redbull can leapfrog both Ferraris to the front row of the grid. Wicked drive by Ricciado by the way.

[Rollo]

Given that Channel 10's coverage of the Chinese GP, which is only highlights anyway, begins a full 27hours after the race has been finished: I can only assume that Formula One is trying to jettison fans and sponsorship dollars.

By killing off all the people who won't or can't pay for Pay TV, the sport is left to monetise the remaining audience. Good luck with the 2020 season, where less of an audience will see races live than in 1980.


F1 and Channel 10 is rapidly turning me into an enemy of the sport.

[Stan Reid]

There will be 4 F1 races on free OTA TV here in the States this year. As for today; Bristol's on FOX.

[Starter]

There will be 4 F1 races on free OTA TV here in the States this year. As for today; Bristol's on FOX.
True, but many will be on lower tier cable packages which many people in the states have now. Still, there is no way I am getting up at 3 AM to watch the Chinese race.

[Rollo]

There is no Chinese GP in 2016 as far as I'm concerned.


F1 can jump.

[rjbetty]

Good morning all

Well I just thought it would be a good time to pop in and give some thoughts in general. I'm still keeping up with things and checking results as they come. Bear in mind I'm not as in depth as previously so I'll try to be as accurate as I can and call it as I see it. I will list a summary of the teams in the order I predict them to finish the WCC.

Mercedes
If anyone followed the Grand Prix 2 season I ran in January or so, do you remember when Jens said Hamilton suffered an unrealistic amount of unluck, allowing Rosberg to win the title, which was highly unlikely to happen in real life? Amazingly, it has happened! I don't really buy any conspiracy theories, though I still don't completely trust Toto Wolff. Hamilton has seemed despondent but even if he doesn't take the title this year, he can add to his reputation by maxing out all the things he is in control of, as that's all anyone can do. Please understand when I said previously I think Mercedes want Rosberg to win, I meant they probably think it would be nice for their other driver to get one too, and so he might get slightly more affection, which I understand and am cool enough with. Now Hamilton's won Monaco, that's thrown things open. I really have no idea which way it'll go now. At least this makes this season more interesting.

By the way, FIVE pit stops for Hamilton in China??? What were they thinking? This was surely an unnecessary cock-up every bit as absurd as Monaco 2015 :mad:

Red Bull
Wow quite a comeback here. I wasn't expecting this really. Dan Ricciardo has been driver of the year so far imo, and I think is showing 2014 wasn't a fluke. In honesty I had thought in 2014 it was as much about Vettel having a bad year, which it was, and that really Dan was just a little short of the best. But now I think he is right there, and as team-mates again, I am very sure would be edging Vettel again, he's that good. He seems very despondent about last weekend, and I worry this could be the start of a bad spiral if he's not careful. I think like I said with Hamilton, Dan just needs to realise he ticked every box perfectly on his side last weekend, and that's all he can do. It was factors out of his control that cost him the race so there's no need to let it get to him, as stuff happens.

As for the driver swap, good grief that was a surprise, and Oh My Goodness what a shock win for Max! Surpassing all my expectations, and "Faaaaantastic" as Murray would say. But being logical, it was an unusual race and on a normal day, he should have been a still superb 4th. And then in Monaco he crashed more than once, so we should keep feet to the ground for now as Max still has plenty of learning to do. I'm not sure RBR threw Dan's race to help Max, but I wouldn't be surprised, as I've seen enough over the years not to be. I think it was just a mistake this time.

Ricciardo is doing so well, that Kvyat basically self-destructed trying to keep up. I do think the reason Max had his crashes was for the same reason, so caution should be advised.

I also must say I'm very disappointed about the Verstappen promotion only because it has removed one of the most intriguing aspects of the season for me - I wanted to see what he could have done in that Toro Rosso. Seeing how many points he could have collected and how close could he have got to a Vettel 2008 season was of great interest to me - but that's gone now. Oh well.

Ferrari
Err... well this isn't really going to plan isn't it? Nice to see Kimi getting plenty of podiums, though he lacks that bit extra these days. I hope he can win one more race soon as it will be very popular and could maybe do him the world of good after heavy beatings these last few seasons.

Seb is still driving very well, but surprisingly, looking into it, his season is proving every bit as unfortunate as Hamilton's! A strategy cock up (though not of Mercedes proportions since that would be hard to top) in Melbourne chucking away a perfectly good win, a non-start(!) in Bahrain, collision in China (was probably his fault but very easily done in a tricky situation), torpedoed in Russia, another strategy goof in Spain, and Ferrari not being on the pace of Force India in Monaco! Despite all this though, I still feel he is maybe driving not quite at his absolute best, as the situation could be getting to him a little. I think this is a weakness of Seb's: When all goes to plan and he is provided with what he needs, he will deliver, as those titles prove. Stick in a curve ball, some adversity, and he's maybe less convincing. Do you agree?

(I don't think an overbearing Ferrari president with unreasonable demands helps very much though - we've all had a boss like that eh?!)

Williams[b]
Oh well it was going to happen sometime I guess. Top 4 positions in 2014 gave way to top 6's in 2015 - now it's top 8-10. With McLaren and Renault looking to improve, it may only get worse. Things haven't looked good for Bottas. However, looking closer, he has outqualified baby Felipe in the last 5 races, so although not showing in points, there may be some sort of hope still left for Bottas. We'll see.

[b]Force India
Finally getting somewhere on the scoreboard now. Another podium for Perez - how does he do it? The guy just has such a sense of occasion, and always seems to make it count. He has also outqualified Hulk 4-2 this season - very impressive. I'm disappointed for Hulk and hope it works out for him one day so he can finally get a podium of his own, he deserves it. Otherwise I expect same old from this team.

Toro Rosso
With Max Verstappen onboard, I would have fancied this team's chances of 5th in the WCC. Now he's gone, that's out of the window a bit. I like Sainz but am also not fussed on him in some ways. I think Verstappen would have fairly creamed him tbh, and that last year was only close as Max was so tender at only 17. I worry about Daniil Kvyat. There's no way that demotion won't have an effect - it would affect anyone since that is a serious blow. Makes me wonder why they can't just have waited till the end of the season. Now Red Bull look like they're ruining another promising young driver's career.

With Kvyat, it seems that he's not really your stereotypical Ivan-Drago-like machine, but rather, even though he's older than some, he's still kinda a kid really and could do with some mentoring. I'm actually thinking of seeing if I can send him a message on twitter (if I can figure out how to work it) just to remind him that Romain Grosjean had a rough time in 2009, then was dumped by Renault (and leave Daniil with the implication that *hint hint* - it ain't all over!!)


Well that's enough for now, I'll try and do the rest soon.


P.S. I really couldn't give a hoot about tyre pressures and the like lol.

[dj_bytedisaster]

Hm... Some things we can agree on, which doesn't happen with the two of us much ;)

Mercedes

Well, if anything, the team order proves pretty much what they think of Nico's chances to win the title. It wouldn't make sense for them actually, as Rosberg would just get more expensive to retain or (even worse) could take the #1 to another team should he chose to run it. I still think they wouldn't have dared making such a request of Lewis, whom from a business point of view everyone at Merc would want to win.

Red Bull

I agree that RIC has been the driver of the year so far, but I cannot think much of the way he talks when things go wrong. It sort of brings up memories of Alonso at his worst. Slamming the team in public is still considered one of the cardinal sins. It might not be good for his career to have an image of publically pilloring the team, especially now as he finds out why Seb ran into so many "unfortunate situations" in 2014. Marko has found a new golden boy and Danny will certainly know what that means.

Verstappen. I'm undecided. I admire his driving, at least on days when he remembers that the transparent bit of the helmet goes to the front. But he is definitely starting to show that he puts himself under way too much pressure. And he had more petulant radio moments than Vettel, and that's quite an achievement.

Fezza

Oh dear. What can you say, They've been a monumental clusterf*** so far.

I'm not sure I agree with all your points on Vettel, but then you certainly expected that ;) No driver drives at his best in a car that's going backwards. The biggest problem here is the outside influence. One thing that was almost overlooked during the four years of Red Bull was that Vettel was lobbying for signing Kimi and get rid of Webber. And that was at a time when Kimi was still winning races.

The reason for that is simple. Vettel is like an indicator for the atmosphere in the team. Last year at Ferrari there was a very good atmosphere, and he really likes Arrivabene. Also Seb and Kimi are the first proper friends as team mates since Senna and Berger. But now Marchione starts to undermine the atmosphere with his incessant pressure. Arrivabene is being questioned, Kimi too. His real weakness is his need for harmony in the team, something you arenb't afforded in the shark tank that is F1.

Williams

Massa is past it and Bottas seems to be going nowhere. That chassis must be ridiculously bad if you manage to end up 8th and 10th with the still best-by-a-good-margin engine.

Force India

Agree on Checo, he's definitely much improved and I think it may have to do with the characteristics of this year's car, because the simultaneous drop in Hulks performance looks a bit too coincidental. He also seems to be one lucky bugger, because the Monaco result was flattering him a bit.

With all eyes on the monumental blunder by Red Bull, it is almost overlooked that, while not as obvious as with RIC, Hulk was equally shafted by his team. He was called in way too early (seven laps before Checo) when the full wets were still going well. Subsequently he was released into traffic behind the Massa train. He can't really buy much from Fernleys apology after the race as he still waits for his first podium, something he should have easily scored here, considering how well he had qualified.

Toro Rosso

Verstappens promotion looked harsh, but it had been planned way before Sochi. It was also the correct decision from a business point of view. They have invested a lot of money in Verstappen, so the last thing they needed was watching him walk off to Mercedes or Ferrari. A promotion to the A team was the way to go. Marko just handled it in his usual arrogant style and they could have been less hard on Kvyat, but then that's how things have always been at RB. Once you fall out of favour or are no longer of use for them, they'll just drop you. Everyone who signs up to the Red Bull Junior Program knows that.

[jens]

Welcome back, rj. :)

Have also been watching less this year, though watched the last 2 races. Still following general trends.

Perceptions, perceptions.;) So mine...

Mercedes - still dominant, as expected. Rosberg may have been fortunate. Still 7 wins on the trot - unbelievable. But Monaco race proved well that his WDC lead is on shaky grounds and it is only matter of time before Hamilton puts in his string of wins. Hopefully a close WDC fight this year.

Ferrari - unreliability and strategy calls have been holding them back. Pure car speed is perhaps about where it was last year - in comparison to Merc. The problem is that some of the rivals (like RBR) have improved and made Ferrari's life as second best team difficult... Räikkönen a bit better than last year, but I suspect this is temporary form like Webber in early 2012. He'd still get a beating by Vettel by the end of the year.

Red Bull - The difference is that Renault PU has improved, so that RBR chassis excellence shines through, and hence have moved up in pecking order. Red Bull may have said harsh words on Renault last year, but they had a point. RBR also acted harsh on Kvyat, but again - they had a point. Team management, who takes no prisoners... but they are super competitive! By the way, awesome driver line-up in Ricciardo & Verstappen. Both in my book potential WDC challengers in the future.

Last rumour is that we could see engine performances getting trimmed closer in the next years (2017, 2018). Combined this with Red Bull's ability to design fantastic chassis... and finally there is a glimmer of hope in F1... hope that someone might challenge Mercedes in F1... But possibly next year, and not 2016 :)

TBC...

[jens]

Williams - With PU performances getting closer on the grid, Williams has lost its shine, because in 2014 they certainly shone above RBR and Ferrari due to huge PU superiority. Solid upper midfield team with two solid - if unspectacular - drivers. Bottas - like Hülkenberg - has lost his image as a future star.

Force India - Probably going to bank their P5 in Constructors again. Pérez has impressed me. In Sauber and also McLaren he was quite inconsistent and error-prone, but now seems like a better race driver than Hülkenberg. Though he got more fortunate than Hulk with strategy at Monaco... still delivered.

STR - James Key again has delivered a brilliant chassis, but the loss of Max and also old outdated Ferrari engines could see them struggling to score well later in the season. Sainz is good, but I get the impression that while he is good in qualis, he is not that impressive in races.

McLaren - They won't get any mercy from me, still their usual rubbish self. Honda PU is obviously better and crucially more reliable than last year, but still the worst. McLaren chassis is decidedly average. They have great drivers though, and as we see, occasionally Alonso wrings great results out of the car, but that's all they can do.

Haas - they have pretty much replaced Sauber in the pecking order. An inspired career move by Grosjean and TBH Gutiérrez isn't far behind him, just has suffered lots of unluck. Surprise of the season still.

Renault - clearly an interim season, like 2015 was for McLaren, though for different reasons. I hope they have now proper finances, can hire a great design team after the exodus of 2013, and... hire a proper driver in place of Palmer. Perhaps the future could look decent in 2017 and beyond.

EDIT: I remember rjbetty once wrote that he predicts McLaren to finish in top3 every year, because one day it must be true.:p: Well, I guess I am going to do the same with Renault - have more belief in them.:p: But I certainly won't predict it for 2017 yet! :)

Sauber - Lack of money, paydrivers... they perform, where you'd have expected Haas to perform. So yeah, these teams have swapped places.

MRT - with better finances and a top-notch engine finally look like competitive addition to the F1 field. Wehrlein has at times mixed it Saubers and Renaults in races... Haryanto obviously the paydriver, but someone has to bring up the rear too...

[rjbetty]

Right, I'll finish this off then.

Thanks for the great replies dj and Jens, I have some thoughts to add which I will do next.

McLaren-Honda
Oh well, they've almost matched last year's points tally already, but overall slightly short of where I'd hoped. It's great to see they've definitely made an improvement, and 6 points finishes out of 12 ain't too bad.

I still think McLaren can be 4h best team by season's end though Force India might have something to say, but are too far behind Williams to overhaul them now. Still it will be good to see how many points they can get.

Toro Rosso
I don't really care much now Max is gone. I hope Kvyat can get his head in gear but it's not looking good right now.

Renault
If Magnussen can consistently score points in the second half, they may overhaul Haas, especially with that upgrade. But I never rated Palmer; I'm not sure about his attitude either but I hope he can get a good result somewhere.

Haas
Well it loos like they've had their bonanza for the season and have settled into their natural place of 8th-9th best team. Still a great achievement. Overall I agree with Jens and Haas' season looks to be mirroring Sauber's 2015. I'm surprised at how close Gutierrez has been to Grosjean in qualifying and he should get some points eventually.

Sauber
Oh dear. Only surprise is Ericsson handily beating Nasr. I'm not sure what's happened here. I'm assuming Ericsson is getting the better treatment as I'd expected Nasr to pull clear, but some have always insisted Ericsson was always better than he'd shown thus far, and he may have just stepped up another gear, which would show how undeveloped the car is. Wouldn't be too surprised if Nasr was replaced at some point.

Manor
Well, still bringing up the rear, but great to see them getting involved. It looks like they perform better on low downforce tracks, which means Canada may be their best chance of a points finish. I so hope they can make the most of it. I'm concerned with how close Haryanto is to Wehrlein, which suggests Haryanto isn't that bad, but maybe Wehrlein isn't the next megastar yet, though I hope he can pull clear later in the season.

[rjbetty]

Hm... Some things we can agree on, which doesn't happen with the two of us much ;)

Mercedes
I guess this depends on point of view as there's a case to be made for both sides. I do agree that Hamilton would have kicked up more of a fuss of moving over, but I always felt that rather than arrogant selfishness, it's much more about being worried his team aren't in his corner. I understand a team order would have been hard to take given the huge misfortune already suffered this season. Then again, I'm not sure Hamilton would be as slow as Rosberg was in Monaco.



Red Bull
...but I cannot think much of the way he talks when things go wrong. It sort of brings up memories of Alonso at his worst. Slamming the team in public is still considered one of the cardinal sins.

Verstappen. I'm undecided. I admire his driving, at least on days when he remembers that the transparent bit of the helmet goes to the front.

I think you're being way too harsh on Ricciardo, who has hardly made a slur. It's not like he's in the habit of being negative either, so it must have been quite a mess-up to push him this far. Thinking about it though, I think he does realise Verstappen is the future so Dan's time to make his mark is limited, and he can see this opportunity slipping out of his grasp through no fault of his own.

As for Max, the kid is only 18, so has a lot of gaps to be filled in, which he will do.



Fezza
I'm not sure I agree with all your points on Vettel, but then you certainly expected that ;) No driver drives at his best in a car that's going backwards.

But now Marchionne starts to undermine the atmosphere with his incessant pressure. Arrivabene is being questioned, Kimi too. His real weakness is his need for harmony in the team, something you arenb't afforded in the shark tank that is F1.

Well I have to say this is what it was like for Alonso all these years. How hard must it have been to keep going when the team got worse every year without fail? I always think Fernando did a remarkable job to show the patience he did, only to be criticised heavily when the slightest frustration finally, finally, started to leak out, which I'd say is more than understandable. I think he managed better than pretty much anybody.

Speaking of which, am I the only one who's thinking Ferrari's season looks like it may be going the way of 2013, after a promising yet unfulfilled start?

I totally agree the blithering Marchionne is the weak link here. Reminds me so much of reading in James Allen's Michael Schumacher book how Schumacher, Brawn and Todt had to form a protective cocoon around themselves to shield them from the ranting di Montezemelo. And yeah, I think Seb is of a gentler nature than most (and easier to like now he's away from Horner and Marko), so really needs a good atmosphere. He, Kimi, Arrivabene and Allison (Can't see it being long till he's next in line in Marchionne's sights if things don't improve soon) really need to stick together right now.

Williams
As for Williams, I noticed after I'd posted that I hadn't bolded the headline properly. On reflection I decided to keep it that way since it proved a fitting illustration of how sadly anonymous the team are becoming as the Mercedes PU's advantage continues to be whittled away.



Force India
Agree on Checo, he's definitely much improved and I think it may have to do with the characteristics of this year's car, because the simultaneous drop in Hulks performance looks a bit too coincidental.

...it is almost overlooked that, while not as obvious as with RIC, Hulk was equally shafted by his team. He was called in way too early (seven laps before Checo)


I hadn't thought about car characteristics, this is a good point. As for Hulk, well it's encouraging to realise he didn't lack the pace. That podium should have been his, but I still believe the day will come for one of my favourite drivers.



Welcome back, rj. :)

...finally there is a glimmer of hope in F1... hope that someone might challenge Mercedes in F1... But possibly next year, and not 2016 :)

Force India - Probably going to bank their P5 in Constructors again. Pérez has impressed me. In Sauber and also McLaren he was quite inconsistent and error-prone, but now seems like a better race driver than Hülkenberg.

STRSainz is good, but I get the impression that while he is good in qualis, he is not that impressive in races.

McLaren - They won't get any mercy from me, still their usual rubbish self... McLaren chassis is decidedly average.

Haas - they have pretty much replaced Sauber in the pecking order. An inspired career move by Grosjean and TBH Gutiérrez isn't far behind him, just has suffered lots of unluck. Surprise of the season still.

Renault - clearly an interim season... and... hire a proper driver in place of Palmer. Perhaps the future could look decent in 2017 and beyond.

EDIT: I remember rjbetty once wrote that he predicts McLaren to finish in top3 every year, because one day it must be true.:p:

Thanks Jens :)

Hopefully 2017 will be even closer, but I wouldn't be surprised if the gaps open out and it's all about aero again like before. Also be careful what you wish for, as Red Bull might enter a period of relative dominance again, which we only recently came out of. Overall things actually look less interesting for next year and I may not even bother at all.

Perez is far more consistent than 2012, and tbh I think that Sauber was actually a rocketship that in Alonso's hands would definitely have challenged for the title, but the drivers were just that inconsistent.

I agree totally with Sainz. Interestingly, Franz Tost predicted this before the 2015 season.

@McLaren: Lol, I had hoped for better too. Looking closer though, they reckon they just had problems with tyres in Monaco. The chassis definitely isn't top, but I think it's still pretty good, yet only really on the level they were previously (2010-11). Better than Williams anyway. I think they can do better than they show as it looks like Button could have fought for 5th in Bahrain. Given that complete rookie Vandoorne finished 10th, I think with regular drivers there could have been a small chance of 5th and 6th there.

As for Haas, that's a good point that they've taken Sauber's place. I worry for next season though as I think things will get hard for them...

I can see Renault cancelling development on 2016 and concentrating on 2017 soon. If Kvyat doesn't lose his head and his career completely (not looking too great right now) then I can see him making a decent home here, as he still has a lot to give.

Haha if McLaren don't get it right next year (and I'm not really seeing it unless they change structure) I will start to accept they aren't really going to.

[jens]

Many thoughts, rj.:p: Instead of quoting every sentence I try to make it short:

* Ferrari - I think we need to wait till Canada to evaluate, how their season is going to end up like. RBR looks good on twisty circuits, but on faster circuits with PU advantage Ferrari may easily be second best like they were last year.

* Vandoorne's debut seemed fine, he even outqualified Button. Sometimes rookies can put in very good performances on their debut, recall Magnussen (2014) and Pérez (2011).

* Force India has outqualified McLaren on every circuit, just had some misfortunes early in the season, which disturbed their point score in races. F.I was comfortably better than McLaren even at Monaco, where power unit counts less.

* McLaren chassis is better than Williams, for sure. But behind Mercedes, RBR, Ferrari, and possibly Toro Rosso. "Tyre issues" is just a way of explaining actual chassis weaknesses, just like Ferrari has trouble heating up tyres in qualifying. It is an inherent weakness of the car.

* Ericsson is indeed beating Nasr. I don't think Ericsson is great, but I suspect Nasr himself is quite an inconsistent driver. On occasions can be good (like on debut race last year!), but can have pretty unimpressive patches of form too.

* Wehrlein hasn't put in much of a gap over Haryanto in qualis, but seems relatively stronger in races. Maybe a new Button or Räikkönen, who struggles in qualis, but is good in races? :p:

[jens]

As for 2017... Well, actually I don't think Red Bull is going to dominate, because power unit will still be important (even if less so). And I do think Mercedes still has at least some PU advantage next year. But that's for another topic.:)

[Nitrodaze]

As for 2017... Well, actually I don't think Red Bull is going to dominate, because power unit will still be important (even if less so). And I do think Mercedes still has at least some PU advantage next year. But that's for another topic.:)

I don't think Redbull need the fastest engine to haul in Mercedes. They need an engine that is reasonably close to the Mercedes engine's horsepower and they would make up the difference with aerodynamics poweress. Monaco clearly shows that Redbull have the better aero package compared to the Mercedes. But they are very close. Translate this to 2017, it could be a lot closer, particularly if Renault can make a further step forward with the engine by the start of the 2017 season.