Next new World Drivers Champion?

[jens]

Well, it is interesting to think that in the time period of 2007-2010 we got four consecutive New WDCs - Räikkönen (07), Hamilton (08), Button (09), Vettel (10). 2010 is the last year we have got a new WDC and it could be it could take a few more years before we get one, with Vettel and Hamilton having developed a duopoly at the front of the field for a while.

However, one thing is sure. Unless F1 completely collapses, we WILL get a new World Champion one day. The only thing is who and when.

Let's take a look at a few potential protagonists for the crown.

Nico Rosberg - in terms of machinery by far the best positioned driver to win at least in short-term. However, he has Hamilton as a team-mate and faces the fate of being “a Barrichello” - titleless driver with lots of wins and poles. Which means he would need circumstances to go in his favour - either a lot of unluck for Hamilton, or something like what happened to Button in 2009. He is still youngish (30) and has time, but will he ever get the “circumstances”?

Daniel Ricciardo - very talented, but hasn’t got a top car yet to challenge for a championship. We do not know yet, how do the silly season games go in the future and whether he gets in the right cars - or gets a Mercedes/Ferrari seat. Could well win a WDC one day, but may need to wait a while for the opportunity.

Max Verstappen - new bright talent in F1, and can wait A LOT for the right cars, even 15 years. Even though youth doesn’t like to wait too long! How exactly will his career trajectory develop, is impossible to tell at this stage.

Valtteri Bottas - perhaps an interesting addition here as he is not really a standout talent of the generation, though could be talented enough to win a WDC in Button-style. Will it ever happen to him?

Or perhaps the next new WDC isn’t in F1 yet?

My personal ‘gut’ says the next new WDC is either Ricciardo or Verstappen, but it will take a few more years before it happens.

[rjbetty]

Hmm that is a tough one.

In circumstances like Hill 96, Villeneuve 97 or even Button 09 I'd say most drivers on the grid are capable of a WDC. Coulthard could have won one and I think Mark Webber certainly would have.

I have pondered before, looking through the list of WDCs, just how different some things could have been in many cases. Like Keke Rosberg in 1982, seems that title could have gone several ways, but he was he one sitting in the chair when the music stopped. May sound like I'm downplaying him but not at all, I guess his season was a bit like Alonso in 2012 had he pulled it off, again several faster cars, through consistency. If it had happened to be Mark Webber alongside Patrese in the 92 Wiliams then I'm sure he'd have won it.


This is a surprisingly hard question. It seems to depend on which car is the one to be in, and who happens to be occupying it at the time, as well as how beatable their team-mate is. this case, I could certainly see Ricciardo if Red Bull manage to get their hands on the best package again.

[Rollo]

I think that it's likely to be whoever can get the gig in the Ferrari seat once Vettel leaves. Raikkonen going only opens up a spot in the team; beating Vettel is an whole other story.

[The Black Knight]

It's hard to say who this will be. If I were to pick anyone it would be Ricciardo. Either Verstappen or Sainz would be outside bets as well as I honestly feel both have the potential to be future WDC's. I also feel that Sainz performances have been overlooked because of the hype surrounding Verstappen this year which I feel is a little unfair as they have been pretty even overall.

[Nitrodaze]

If l chance a guess, l would say Rosberg is hot favorite, if he ups his game in 2016 or adapts better than Hamilton to the regulation in 2017. My other guess would be Ricciado, if Redbull somehow manage to secure a competitive engine for 2016 or 2017. The only other possibility l can see, is if Ferrari signs a new (Hamilton type) rookie or someone like Bottas, Perez or Verstapenn and the Ferrari engine and chassis is on par or better than the Mercerde by 2017.

[Mintexmemory]

I think Rosberg has Massa syndrome now. Will he go elsewhere as I can't see him beating LH in a Merc under circumstances where the car is competitive. So where would a number 1 spot be for him - Maybe RedBull or Williams, but then they'd have to be better than at present and it's still a fight against LH and SV. So nope his time has gone with these past 2 seasons. Ricciardo is the one my money is on, but he may have to wait for 6-7 years as I don't see past either Hamilton or Vettel having a private race to equal Schuey!

[rjbetty]

I remember F1 Rejects used to say, before they were shut down, that as a rule of thumb, a driver needs to stake their claim to the title within 3 years (of joining F1) to really hit the big time. When I think of this, it's a pretty good guide.

Applying this rough rule to the current drivers it's quite accurate.

Hamilton managed to stake his claim in season 1 and has indeed always been a title winner or contender since.
Vettel had certainly made his mark by the end of 2009.
Alonso did so by his 2nd season and Kimi certainly by his 3rd.

Button after 2002 and Rosberg after 2008 hadn't really been able to, though Button was an exception by becoming champion later on.

Applying this to Hulkenberg also helps show he has likely missed the boat, as has Perez. Massa was very close but never quite got there, having only been able to finish as high as 4th by the time 2005 ended.

Ricciardo did successfully make his mark after 3 (3.5) seasons, and sure enough he is indeed one of the top drivers and can be seriously considered for future WDC glory.

Maldonado can pretty safely be ruled out, even though he did win a race before his 3yr period was up. Grosjean is an unknown, having scored lots of podiums but no wins. He could be like Button in the future.


Crucially, Bottas is coming to the end of this time now, and he hasn't really made enough of a mark. Look at it this way, I feel the current Williams is comparable to the Renaults of 2003 and 2004 in performance, but Alonso was able to make more of a mark and won a race within 3 years of his F1 career. I would bet that had Alonso started his career in 2013 with Williams instead of Bottas he could have grabbed a win somewhere.

According to this rule of thumb, next year is very important for Kvyat, while Verstappen and Sainz have to be moving on quickly. I expect Verstappen to "pass" this test but I'm not sure Sainz will quite make it. Kvyat is pretty hard to call but I think he can just do it. His old team-mate Jean-Eric Vergne didn't make enough of an impression after 3yrs and is now out of F1...


Do you agree with this? I find it a handy guide as it seems everyone who does manage to "stake their claim to the title within 3 years" is able to go on to a top career, while almost all who don't do end up not quite making it.

[Rollo]

There have been 32 different World Champions. On average they win their first championship in their 5¼th season.
If you remove the four top and four bottom (Farina won in his 1st season whilst Mansell won in his 13th) then this shifts to the 3.9666th season; that's close enough to 4 as to be useful.

"within 3 years" is probably pushing it a bit but if they haven't won the title by about 6, unless there's a very good or strange reason, then they're probably not going to.

[rjbetty]

Ta, I was actually thinking maybe 4 would be better as 3 seems just a tad harsh. :)

So maybe give Bottas one more chance next year. He has said he is able to be more aggressive. He could possibly be excused this year as he hurt his back, and also Williams for now just want to consolidate themselves in the top 3. But he simply must deliver next year or no big teams will be interested.

Using the 3 (4) year idea, and taking out all drivers who aren't experienced enough yet, we have these drivers who are candidates for top glory

HAMILTON
VETTEL
ALONSO
RICCIARDO


And those who appear to have missed the boat, or seem set to miss it:

ROSBERG
MASSA
HULKENBERG
PEREZ
MALDONADO


These drivers are omitted cos they already have won titles or I feel they are an outlier for whatever reason

RAIKKONEN
BUTTON
GROSJEAN


The remainder of the 2015 field haven't been around long enough yet

KVYAT
BOTTAS
VERSTAPPEN
SAINZ
NASR
ERICSSON
MERHI
STEVENS
ROSSI

Out of that last set, only Kvyat, Bottas, Verstappen and Sainz look to have a chance of really 'making it', and out of those 4 only Verstappen and maybe Kvyat look like they will. This leaves a fairly small pool of drivers. So my final list of credible candidates to win the WDC is

HAMILTON
VETTEL
ALONSO
RICCIARDO
KVYAT
VERSTAPPEN

So out of those, only Ricciardo, Kvyat and Verstappen are new. I will also include Rosberg since Hamilton could break his arm or something, and also Grosjean since I think we haven't seen the last of him yet. All others will have to be in a Button 2009 situation to take the WDC.

[inimitablestoo]

I'll give Bottas my vote, but it's worth considering this: after Mika Hakkinen won the 1998 World Championship, to correctly guess the identity of the next new champion you'd have had to nominate a Spanish karting driver who'd just had his first car racing test...

[jens]

I'll give Bottas my vote, but it's worth considering this: after Mika Hakkinen won the 1998 World Championship, to correctly guess the identity of the next new champion you'd have had to nominate a Spanish karting driver who'd just had his first car racing test...

Well, that's a good point. Sometimes in F1 there seems to be an established power structure, which is hard to break, i.e right now it is hard to look past Hamilton/Vettel as main title challengers in the next few years. But a new star can rise very quickly and suddenly (like rj's mentioned 3-year-logic). Basically that's how Max Verstappen has come to the scene - 2 years ago he was still in karts and not many knew him!

Or consider this. Merc' junior Pascal Wehrlein isn't even in F1 yet, but imagine he does a splendid job in Manor next year, and gets promoted to the Merc main team in 2017 to replace Rosberg. He then proceeds to challenge Hamilton for WDC in 2017.:p: To be honest, I wouldn't bet on this happening right now, but that's how a super-talented driver (we don't know yet, how talented Wehrlein is by F1 standards though!) can easily burst to the scene.

[jens]

Do you agree with this? I find it a handy guide as it seems everyone who does manage to "stake their claim to the title within 3 years" is able to go on to a top career, while almost all who don't do end up not quite making it.

I find it very interesting, though some drivers like Mansell or Häkkinen are clear exceptions. Well, in Häkkinen's case for sure we know McLaren wasn't performing well enough for a title challenge for years.

What this 3-year-logic shows though is that top teams often identify top talents quickly. And it doesn't take long before they are snapped up. Räikkönen was hired by McLaren after a single season in F1, Williams hired Montoya straightaway, same with Hamilton by McLaren, M. Schumacher was signed by Benetton after a single (!) race.

However, the exception is that even if you are very talented and valued by teams, you can easily get stuck in wrong cars. Jean Alesi could have been a title contender in his third (second full) season on F1, in 1991 - and perhaps even more so in 1992. But he chose to go to Ferrari...

[Nitrodaze]

I think Rosberg has Massa syndrome now. Will he go elsewhere as I can't see him beating LH in a Merc under circumstances where the car is competitive. So where would a number 1 spot be for him - Maybe RedBull or Williams, but then they'd have to be better than at present and it's still a fight against LH and SV. So nope his time has gone with these past 2 seasons. Ricciardo is the one my money is on, but he may have to wait for 6-7 years as I don't see past either Hamilton or Vettel having a private race to equal Schuey!

I wouldn't write off Rosberg yet. Lets us look at Rosbergs off-track 2015 year to date. He got married, then started the year with a pregnant wife and just over half season became a dad. And he is competing with a single jet setting guy at the top of his game. I put the difference between 2014 Nico and 2015 Nico down to the unavoidable distraction of home life. The changes to lifestyle of getting into a marriage and properly sharing your life with someone else has a small impact on the preparations to take on a world champion. Adding the 9 months period of supporting a pregnant wife, the expectations and anticipation of the arrival of the baby. All of that are bound to have an impact of time loss and slight drop of racing adge. Not to mention the sleepless nights.

I think things are going to settle into a pattern for Nico in 2016, then he can focus on his racing with more conviction and give Hamilton a run for his money again. The main thing about 2016 for Nico is that he has nothing to lose but all to gain hence the challenge shall be on Hamilton to maintain his high level of performance and not lose focus for a minute.

Rosberg's real chance is in 2017 when the main regulations changes kick in. He has to make the most of it and build an early advantage if Lewis struggles to get on top of the changes within the first three races. He has to believe in himself, he was a GP2 world champion, hence he knows how to win world championships. That said, he is going against one of the best F1 drivers in recent era of F1, he has to really invest himself into the 2016 season to have a chance. He already has half a chance in having the same machinery as Hamilton.

[jens]

Well, Nitrodaze. Interesting points of view. Though now I would be interested in statistics, whether we have got a historic pattern of drivers slowing down in such cases.:D I.e Mick Schumacher was born in 1999, but I don't remember Michael slowing down at that time. Though we have the famous Enzo Ferrari quote that if a driver became father, he'd become 1s p/lap slower.

[Nitrodaze]

I remember F1 Rejects used to say, before they were shut down, that as a rule of thumb, a driver needs to stake their claim to the title within 3 years (of joining F1) to really hit the big time. When I think of this, it's a pretty good guide.

Applying this rough rule to the current drivers it's quite accurate.



Crucially, Bottas is coming to the end of this time now, and he hasn't really made enough of a mark. Look at it this way, I feel the current Williams is comparable to the Renaults of 2003 and 2004 in performance, but Alonso was able to make more of a mark and won a race within 3 years of his F1 career. I would bet that had Alonso started his career in 2013 with Williams instead of Bottas he could have grabbed a win somewhere.

Do you agree with this? I find it a handy guide as it seems everyone who does manage to "stake their claim to the title within 3 years" is able to go on to a top career, while almost all who don't do end up not quite making it.

I think there are two categories of world champions, the early achievers that become the very best in the game, the Schumacher's, Alonso, Hamilton and Vettel. And the late achievers like Hakkinen, button etc. Mika Hakkinen won it twice to show you don't have to hit the big time before the three year mark to make it into the big time.

To win the world championship, every key things need to come together at the same time. Have access to a championship winning car, have abit of luck and be in the zone [be at ones performance peak window] . If any of these thing happen to be out of sync with the others, then chances are the driver would miss the boat.

Hence l think Rosberg, Ricciado, Bottas, the HULK, Perez, Sainz, Verstapenn are the obvious group that can possibly win a drivers world championship, given a championship winning car at the right moment, which l believe to be still in the future for this group. The interesting thing about this group is that, pairing of drivers within this group at that optimum moment, would most likely ruin the opportunity for one of them, this is part of the luck thing, to also be lucky to be paired with a weaker driver and better drivers to have slower uncompetitive cars or having costly bad luck in that season. Having the luck of good reliability throughout the season is another. No accidents, good health and no unavoidable distractions.
That's how Button and Raikonen won it. Mclaren's poor reliability handed the 2007 title to Raikonen in the Ferrari by a one sole point from Hamilton and Alonso who were both tied at 109 points to Kimi's 110. A year Hamilton was robbed of the title by a gearbox failure hence did not finish that race, a saving grace for Alonso. Alonso in the lacklustre Ferrari and Hamilton in a woefull Maclaren paved the way for Button in 2009.

Anything is possible in F1.