Preview of F1 2016

[jens]

Well, rj and Nitrodaze have already started predicting WCC order of 2016 in other threads and I thought I’d at least attempt to waste little time to join the frame. So, what do we expect from 2016? Mercedes as winning again with Ferrari again as a runner-up?

Usually each season sees some changes, though there have been some exceptions, when there have been almost no changes in competitive order from one year to another (1994 -> 1995). So, what changes? Red Bull moving forward with whatever-engines? McLaren moving forward? Somebody else moving forward/backwards?

But to discuss changes, we need to take a look at potential variables, though which are often hard to predict.

Potential variables
Power units
2015 saw a significant improvement from Ferrari PU, which brought a major shift in competitive order - though not major enough to really threaten Mercedes’ supremacy. Ferrari is now performing close enough to Merc to be the only realistic competitor to seriously threaten them. Whether Renault and/or Honda have it in them to make a major move forward, remains unclear, with Renault’s level of F1 commitment continually unclear, likewise Honda’s general depth level.

Chassis
Ranking the chassis is only subjective here, but I’d wager a guess currently Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull fill the top 3 with McLaren and Toro Rosso somewhere after them, and Williams. Force India, Lotus and Sauber operate further behind, and it is unlikely they can make a big step forward with their lack of budget. If Renault buys Lotus and even if they significant invest in the team, changes in competitive order in F1 happen with a certain lag. Which means that if Renault invests heavily into Team Enstone, first results may come in 2017 and no earlier.

Maybe I haven’t followed properly, but I haven’t noticed any significant movements among key personnel?

Tyres
Singapore was an interesting case. Mercedes couldn’t handle the soft tyres and were nowhere by their standards. We know, what happened in early 2012, when nobody understood the tyres and we got 7 different winners in a row. What happened in 2013, when tyres were so undurable that Red Bull and Mercedes had some races, where they were really slow despite locking out front rows on the grid - and Ferrari/Lotus won.

We do not know, what will Pirelli produce for 2016, and maybe they have been told by Bernie to “spice up the show” a little bit. Anyway, whatever it is, tyres are unlikely to deny Mercedes the championship. Just like in ‘12/’13 Red Bull still won regardless of the tyre mess. But what tyres CAN do is to create some unpredictable races and more variety in individual races - which Mercedes doesn’t win. Even if they win the championships in the end.

Red Bull and power units
It is still unclear, what will RBR use next year. But I remain somewhat sceptical Ferrari’s customer PU is really the step forward for RBR/STR, except in reliability. Also integration with PU comes into play. For example I believe part of Toro Rosso’s success is good integration with PU - I suppose currently they are the best-positioned customer team in this area, due to co-operation with Red Bull. And no Mercedes or Ferrari customer currently enjoys such level of ‘integration’.

Rjbetty predicted RB could finish 3rd and Toro Rosso 5th in WCC. I’d guess this is the best possible scenario for either team. But in a worse scenario - in which Merc/Ferrari PU’s make a big step forward over winter, and “bad” PU integration for RB teams - they could be somewhere i.e 4th and 7th respectively too. What about other customer teams, by the way? Will Williams, Force India, Sauber also start using year-old engines? Or does this oddly enough apply to Red Bull only? Lot of grey area here it must be said...

See, I haven’t predicted anything yet.:p: Just brought forward some points of discussion before taking off.

[rjbetty]

Wow great post Jens, and as you know, I just love this sort of thing. The anticipation is almost as much fun or more fun than the season itself. :)

Those variables are quite correct I'd say and can be very hard to call. Last year I had no clue what the engines would perform like this year. Ron and co were hyping Honda so much that I thought there must be at least some truth to it while Ferrari had seemingly made a knee-jerk reaction in sacking Luca Marmorini, which appeared to leave them with... no-one really in charge. Just like sacking Aldo Costa who was then snapped up by Mercedes, go figure, just as Ferrari's cars started getting worse. So I wondered if Ferrari's PU would be even worse this year.

This led to me getting early predictions wrong to say the least (McLaren 2nd and Ferrari 6th were woefully off the mark)

I put Toro Rosso 5th based on Force India getting year old engines. Now I'm not so sure if Force India will get old engines, but Sauber have expressed concern they might get dumped with some. Also STR's drivers will be faster, more experienced and more able to make the most of their situation. They are already on 45pts this year (their highest since 2008 adjusted for points system) and could have had so much more. Even a year old Ferrari would be a boost, so they could be in for a good haul of points.

That's a very good point about PU integration, I hadn't thought of that.

One example I always think of is Benetton in 1995. The previous year they had won the championship with what was seen as definitely an inferior Ford engine to the Williams Renaults. And now Benetton were to receive the same Renault supply as Williams. Had I followed F1 then, I certainly would have predicted domination from Schumacher/Benetton. But as it turned out, Williams were actually stronger than the previous year. Ross Brawn said years later that the Benetton chassis was actually quite average but it was Michael who made the difference (and who would I be to argue with Ross Brawn). I feel Berger and Alesi's (plus Herbert's) terrible struggles in the same car help confirm this.

Anyway it was said they had problems integrating the new Renault engine into the chassis, finding out that although the Renault had much more power, the humble Ford V8 did have some great advantages in packaging etc that the Renault didn't.

The big thing for me is McLaren. I have a nagging fear that the folk at Honda don't actually have a clue, which is a scary thought. They have been described as underprepared and having woefully underestimated the task this year. This says they don't have much grasp of things. Do they understand that it looks like the big gains simply must be made THIS winter since the tokens and opportunities shrink year on year, reducing the opportunity to fix things?

Still they can't be getting any worse and I look forward to improved performances next year, especially with Button retained.

[rjbetty]

Oh I love having a go at predictions all the time, even if it's far too early. I remember the first time I did this was during the 1999 season. I ran seasons on Grand Prix 2 and remember having Pedro Diniz at Ferrari (amazingly around the time Michael broke his leg, he seemed almost a shoe-in there!) and Irvine was supposed to return to Jordan, so I had them both running strongly there.

I'll try and quickly give a run down of the teams as I see their prospects right now:

I should say that happily, I am quite sure diminishing returns should kick in next year, meaning the grid closing up. I have always been too cautious about this having been disappointed too many times over the years when the grid performances opened out rather than closed, especially in 2001 and 2002. From then on I was always reluctant to expect this.

I had said that I was correct in saying Mercedes would extend their gap, but actually this only happened early in the year. Now the grid is closer than it has been over the last 2 years. Bit like 1997 when Wiliams actually started with a bigger gapt than ever.

1.MERCEDES - more of the same. Thing is they may have been running with power turned down. Look at Lewis at Monza when he had to turn it up. Foreboding or what? But then again if they were really hiding 2sec per lap, why have they lost 3 races this year? They could be forced to turn engine up more in 2016 leading to retirements such as Rosberg at Monza...

2.FERRARI - should close up some more.

3.RED BULL - FERRARI: Year old engines or not, they are already close to Williams now and I expect them to move ahead. If Ferrari are bullied into providing top spec, well they should be right in the mix for wins.

4.WILLIAMS-MERCEDES: Again a little closer than this year, and a little closer than in 2014 but relative to everyone else a bit more in the mix rather than clear 2nd/3rd but still enough for a pretty easy 4th over the season.

5.FORCE INDIA - MERCEDES: I've put them 5th now since they always always surprise me. This year they look set for 5th and I would not have thought that this season. But if they had to miss testing this year why will it be different next year?

6.TORO ROSSO - FERRARI: In qualifying they are always quick and I easily put them 5th on Saturdays, but they never seem to get anywhere near the points their qualifying pace suggests. Having said that, Max in particular looks like one bucking this trend. I can see him having a sort of Vettel 2008 season, a lite version, with lots of mid/lower points finishes adding up to a good haul. I can see him pulling off a podium somewhere.

7.MCLAREN-HONDA: To remain on course of their goal for fighting for the WDC, McLaren-Honda simply must at least be fighting with Force India for 5th in 2016. I am fearing Honda won't make a big enough step, but hopefully am wrong for Alonso's sake. Still it will be interesting to see their drivers more in the mix this time rather than being just too far back to do anything.

8.SAUBER - FERRARI: So much depends on their PU spec. If it's still current then some decent points beckon again, especially as drivers will be more experienced and quicker.

9.RENAULT: So much depends on their PU too? Will Renault make big improvements. My guess is nothing amazing but you never know. I just think if they were really set to make a big step we would have seen more this year. Plus people in the know think they will take another few years to be competitive. In this case, I expect a slip back of at least 0.5sec, though I only put them 9th because of everyone else closing up somewhat.

10.HAAS - FERRARI: The big unknown, even more so than McLaren. They could be last or they could be having a surprisingly solid season in midfield. Have we ever had a team with their level of preparation come in and be last and well off the pace. Toyota weren't totally at the back but rather solidly in the midfield. Same for Stewart. Could be interesting indeed but so hard to call. The only downside is the Dallara chassis will surely lack downforce as I just can't see them having anywhere near as advanced an understanding as Red Bull or Mercedes.

11.MANOR - MERCEDES: A salivating prospect of Mercedes PU, apparently to be current spec? This should gain them well over a second. Then at least one driver who should probably be 0.5s faster than Will Stevens. That brings Stevens' current +5.7sec average qualifying gap down to 4sec at most, hopefully. The rest is how much they will gain with the chassis. It looks like still being some way off unfortunately and much depends on if Haas really do hit the ground running. I will put Manor around Caterham's 2012 level.

[jens]

Great thoughts, rj!

Actually… I think my prediction would look rather similar to yours, if I did one.:p: Or if I attempted to put teams into tiers, in which close competition exists, it could look like following:

Mercedes
Ferrari
Williams, Red Bull
Force India, Toro Rosso, McLaren
Sauber, Renault
Haas
Manor

Grid could close up slightly, as we are into third year of the new regulations era, but ever-so-slightly and not enough to alter rankings too much. I believe tyre compounds, whatever Pirelli brings, could have bigger impact on any potential surprising race results.

Regarding PU integration. As far as I understand, this really is big part of current Red Bull politicking and their threats of leaving. Development of PU is a really close activity between various parties, which includes fuel companies. And for any customer team it is hard to get close to the data i.e Ferrari-Shell or Mercedes-Petronas combos have reached in co-operation. Red Bull wants “equality”, but in current situation it is impossible - they’d need the same fuel, etc, as well, as the works team has.

Driver factor has not been discussed properly yet, but sure enough - for example Alonso is a big asset for McLaren. Currently it doesn't help McLaren much, since they can't even get minor points. But if they can, Alonso with his steely consistency would wring every point out of the car, which would be a big help in any midfield championship battle.

Also currently - for me there is no reason to think FI has a better car than Lotus in 2015, but Maldonado is literally nowhere compared to Grosjean, Pérez and Hülkenberg - and this has made the difference in WCC standings.

I like the thought of Verstappen doing a "2008 Vettel". Winning a race would need a huge amount of luck though, so I am not going to discuss that, but a few top 6 finishes and a firm top 10 position in the Drivers Championship - why not.

Will follow with team-by-team preview one day.

I find it odd we are doing this while we have still got 5 races left this year, but probably shows there is not much more to discuss about the on-going season - everything is clear.:p:

[rjbetty]

Thanks Jens.

Interesting about the fuels and latest data for works engines. I remember reading an article explaining that McLaren could have been 40bhp down on the works Mercedes in 2014 due to not having latest software, fuel, data, everything else. That's a big difference and would explain their slow pace. I always felt the car somehow wasn't all that bad. I don't know where but for some reason I had a figure of even up to 0.7sec that it was costing them!

I'm sure McLaren suffered much more than most since they were leaving their supplier at the end of that year.

I've read that Manor will use PETRONAS fuel as well in 2016. This bodes well that they could get great service for Mercedes and total top notch stuff.

As for Red Bull, I've read that they are loudly demanding all the up-to-the-minute software, data, fuel, everything from Ferrari. They have a huge cheek, just expecting to have all the hard work, investment and development the works Ferrari team put in, and just have that handed to them on a plate, above and beyond all other Ferrari customers. Then they will probably still bitterly complain about something anyway. If I were Ferrari I would be making some demands myself if they expected that - such as charging at least 100million - if they really do want all the works extras other customers won't get.

The big unknowns seem to be McLaren-Honda, Haas and maybe Renault too. Most other teams I expect to make incremental improvements but no huge leaps or dips in form.

I can see Verstappen finishing 9th-11th in the WDC in 2016. I think the top 8 may be pretty much set between Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull and Williams, with Alonso, Force India and Verstappen next up in some order depending on things.

[AndyL]

As for Red Bull, I've read that they are loudly demanding all the up-to-the-minute software, data, fuel, everything from Ferrari. They have a huge cheek, just expecting to have all the hard work, investment and development the works Ferrari team put in, and just have that handed to them on a plate, above and beyond all other Ferrari customers. Then they will probably still bitterly complain about something anyway. If I were Ferrari I would be making some demands myself if they expected that - such as charging at least 100million - if they really do want all the works extras other customers won't get.

The latest according to James Allen is that Red Bull won't be getting so much as a rusty washer from Ferrari:
http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2015/10/what-the-current-engine-stand-off-tells-us-as-about-the-power-of-manufacturers-in-f1/
Torro Rosso can still have year-old Ferrari engines, in place of Manor. (Presumably Torro Rosso get the nod because they haven't spent the last 5 years bad-mouthing their engine partner :))

I'm sure this is a negotiating ploy rather than a final decision though. Maurizio's just pointing out to Red Bull that they're in no position to make demands.

[Bagwan]

According to Saward , the bulls will run Renault again , as they are negotiating a 9 year deal with FOM , and Bernie wants Red Bull still in the fray .

So , they will kiss and make up , and all will be happy times again with 22 cars on the grid .

[rjbetty]

According to Saward , the bulls will run Renault again , as they are negotiating a 9 year deal with FOM , and Bernie wants Red Bull still in the fray .

So , they will kiss and make up , and all will be happy times again with 22 cars on the grid .

Wow this is throwing some spanners and a kettle of fish in the works. That will prevent any real chance of the Bulls leaping up near the front of the pack. And so Toro Rosso are getting Ferrari but Red Bull are staying with Renault? Wow.

It can easily be that Red Bull will regret their attitude towards Ferrari since their year-old engine may well have provided a small improvement over what they will have now.

But what does this mean for the Lotus/Renault works team now? Does this mean they are completely stuffed?? Hope not... :(

[rjbetty]

According to Saward , the bulls will run Renault again , as they are negotiating a 9 year deal with FOM , and Bernie wants Red Bull still in the fray .

So , they will kiss and make up , and all will be happy times again with 22 cars on the grid .

Wow this is throwing some spanners and a kettle of fish in the works. That will prevent any real chance of the Bulls leaping up near the front of the pack. And so Toro Rosso are getting Ferrari but Red Bull are staying with Renault? Wow.

It can easily be that Red Bull will regret their attitude towards Ferrari since their year-old engine may well have provided a small improvement over what they will have now.

But what does this mean for the Lotus/Renault works team now? Does this mean they are completely stuffed?? Hope not... :(

[jens]

I am not sure Renault's 2016 PU should be worse than the 2015 Ferrari PU. Renault probably has some improvement potential in them, even if they will not match the best.

Odd situation with Red Bull, for sure. Maybe Mateschitz means it seriously if he wants to pull Red Bull out of F1... But he knows he is contractually tied to Bernie and can't do it that easily, so lots of heavy negotiating ongoing.

[jens]

I can see Verstappen finishing 9th-11th in the WDC in 2016. I think the top 8 may be pretty much set between Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull and Williams, with Alonso, Force India and Verstappen next up in some order depending on things.

Actually I can see the Red Bull and Williams drivers being threatened by the ALO, VES, FI group in WDC standings. Recall 2014, when it took Massa most of the season to actually overtake Hülkenberg in the championship standings. Kvyat could be somewhat vulnerable too - this year he has had better reliability than Ricciardo (or should I say the gap between them in terms of performance is bigger than points suggest), next year could be the other way around.

Of course the most stunning scenario is a repeat of 2008 - with Toro Rosso-Ferrari going better than the Red Bull-Renault and Verstappen indeed doing a "Vettel season".

Lots of possibilities in the air!

[truefan72]

LOL RBR & Horner doing a Uturn?
http://www.espn.co.uk/f1/story/_/id/13850783/christian-horner-not-ruling-renault-deal-red-bull-2016
that still is the most logical choice,

From the comments section that said it better than i could:
Faizal Azlan · Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
"First redbull spit into renault face publicly saying some very unprofessional things, then red bull tried to get engines from other suppliers but insist on same spec engines to the factory team which obviously Ferrari and Merc will say hell no, then they tried Honda which looking at how they treated Renault why would they risk that kind of media attention... Then they threatened to quit the sport... Even holding the sport at ransom... No one cared... Now asking Renault for engines again and they won't be a factory team but a customer team lol.... Stupidity at its finest"

[AndyL]

I wonder if Renault will try to saddle Red Bull with year-old engines :) Few would blame them.

[rjbetty]

I wonder if Renault will try to saddle Red Bull with year-old engines :) Few would blame them.

I'm not sure they can. Thankfully it seems that this whole year-old spec loophole will be closed from next year and all customers will have to receive (basically) the same spec. As for Manor this year, that was a special dispensation granted with agreement from other teams.

However, Christian Horner did say a while back that it's in their contract that they must be Renault's priority team...

In any case, Red Bull is clearly a team that could do with a year's supply of humble pie to go with whatever engines they get.




And on a completely different note, I just woke up from such an interesting dream about next year's Australian GP and wanted to share cos it was so good. I didn't watch any but somehow saw the qualifying results on the old teletext. Although it was no surprise who was on the front row, Hamilton, but only a little ahead of Rosberg, there was nevertheless a feeling of things definitely being closer with other teams over the season - a real 2012 feel with lots of teams able to have good days (I wish!)

I definitely remember McLaren looking much improved with Button starting 6th or 7th, and Maldonado's Renault was having a very good day up there somewhere. But the real thing that stood out was Romain Grosjean for Haas, qualifying a superb 4th on debut! Though the feeling was that would be an above average result for them, they were definitely going to be right in the midfield mix over the season.

Sadly, I've never had an F1 dream where anything remotely resembles what happens in real life, so...

[jens]

Sadly, I've never had an F1 dream where anything remotely resembles what happens in real life, so...

Well yeah, lol.:D

It is a very vague memory by now, but the closest to "real life" dream I saw was Michael Schumacher securing the 2002 championship - a dream, which I believe I saw before the French GP that year. The difference was that in my dream he passed Olivier Panis, who was having a surprisingly good race in a BAR, to take the win (and WDC).

[jens]

Thought I’d try to make a more detailed preview, this time on a team-by-team basis.

Mercedes - they are the grand favourites yet again (especially in the relatively frozen regs era), but to put it this way - I think their advantage has “peaked”. It is often interesting to look at team performance trajectories throughout years and it usually includes rise, peak and downfall. The peak of McLaren-H was in 1988, Williams in 1992, Ferrari Team MS in 2002, Red Bull perhaps 2013. Mercedes is not going to get beaten over a season, but their advantage is hardly going to get bigger in the new regs era and perhaps tyres can surprise them on occasion.
Verdict - to win both WDC/WCC again

Ferrari - I will cheer heavily for them and they have been one of the few good stories this year. But overcoming Mercedes will be a bit too much of a task, and Vettel can stay in contention only with a bit of luck on his side, like he currently sits ahead of Rosberg. I think during 2016 Ferrari management will put all their focus on 2017, like they did in mid-2013, or BMW did in 2008. The signing of James Allison has had a good effect on Ferrari, but not enough to (yet?) overhaul the completeness of Mercedes.
Verdict - unless we see a big surprise in PU developments over winter, should be a safe bet for P2.

Williams - it is hard to make up my mind on them, because they have been sort of in a no-mans-land between the big teams and struggling middlers (FI, Lot, etc). Which way will they move? I would not be surprised though if the midfield group (incl FI) can threaten them more. Their struggles in the wet and on street circuits does not instill confidence in the ‘completeness’ of their chassis design team. I would not be surprised if it is Williams’ turn to have a bit of a slowish start into the season, like RBR had this year. However, lack of competition in current F1 and access to the best PU on the grid should continually see Williams feature up in good positions.
Verdict - unlikely to theaten Merc’ supremacy, should have a good shot at finishing in at least top 4.

Red Bull - it is a bit hard to discuss them, when everything is so unclear, but let’s concentrate on practical things that we more or less know, EVEN if Red Bull pulls out completely! In the post-Newey era they don’t have class-leading chassis, though they still have potential to have a top 3 one. Whatever happens on the PU front, they are unlikely to gain a class-leading engine, be it a year-old Ferrari or Renault. Also they have an excellent talent in Dan Ricciardo to deliver results. Based on these criterias RBR should still be at least a strong midfielder, but unlikely to have the ability to finish above P3. The owner, billionaire Dietrich Mateschitz is a pragmatic man and deep down he probably knows that Red Bull is doomed in these new regs era, and that’s why he is seriously considering to pull the team out, because he doesn’t see a point in being a midfielder.
Verdict - in whatever disguise the team continues, they should be at least a strong midfielder, unless the completely pull out without selling the team.

Force India - one of the most consistent teams throughout years, always delivering minor points in most races. There is no reason, why this should not continue. Sure enough, they do not design great chassis, but they have been very professional within their limited means. Also continued access to the best PU means they hold strong cards in any midfield battles. FI has a good driver line-up to score them good points also next year. While it is unclear, what happens to Red Bull, their chief rival Lotus/Renault gets an inferior engine and drops backwards in competition, while F.I faces the threat of improved performance by McLaren, and another challenge from Toro Rosso.
Verdict - unless they financially completely collapse, should have a good shot at finishing in top 6 in WCC yet again.

Lotus/Renault - after the 2013 collapse the team was severely hit by lack of finances. In terms of chassis design quality this “hit” has not been dealt with so far and the first and foremost task of the team is to secure the future on the sponsorship/investment front. Whatever the Renault ownership looks like, it seems obvious 2016 can only be a “build-up” year, much like 2001 was for Benetton/Renault after an ownership change. Renault perhaps can make a more competitive PU than this year, but unlikely to match the very best. Also having Maldonado in their driver line-up reduces the chances of scoring points - unless he accidentally wins a race.
Verdict - needs to secure immediate future and stability before thinking long-term, 2016 is an interim year.

Toro Rosso - in the wake of general Red Bull mess their future is unclear. However, they have managed to develop themselves into plucky underdogs and sure enough, I am a small admirer of TD James Key, who also made Sauber look like a really good team. It is hard to expect STR to get even better than that within their limited means, so they must be performing pretty close to the peak on the chassis front, but they should have momentum to produce a good one next year too. With a potential bright talent especially in Verstappen to deliver them results, even a year-old Ferrari PU or a Renault PU could see them delivering at least some impressive performances.
Verdict - on the political and engine front lots of unclarity, but situation is promising in other criterias. If they get a good solution in critical matters, could be a strong midfielder next year.

Sauber - generally I believe there is no reason, why Sauber should not be capable of designing at least as good chassis as, say, Force India. But where they lose out is having an inferior PU, and also two paydrivers. Though Nasr will be in his second season next year, so that will help at least a little bit. They had a horrific 2014, but retrospectively a lot of it was down to PU. So perhaps they can avoid it this time around.
Verdict - can put in some eye-catching performance, but overall hard to see them above P8 in WCC.

McLaren - it is hard to be optimistic about McLaren, because throughout years they have proven very convincingly that they simply do not deliver. However, there are at least some positive signs. The chassis department, led by Prodromou, may finally be on the upside - and I believe close co-operation with Honda helps the chassis as well. So that they do not need to “adapt” to other engine, but can develop just as they like. There is less clarity about Honda - they are in such a deep trouble they are unlikely to match Mercedes or Ferrari next year, but they could have potential to move ahead of Renault.
Verdict - has potential to be a competitive midfielder, heavily dependent on what Honda can do with the PU over winter.

Haas - F1 experience throughout years has proven very convincingly that it is better to be cautious than opportunistic in predicting good things for a newcomer. F1 is not like other series (WEC, WRC), where a big manufacturer can pump in lots of money and basically be at the front immediately. If Dallara can be within 3 seconds of pace-setting chassis, I’ll say it is well-done.
Verdict - should have a decent shot at toppling Manor, but points will be hard to come by.

Manor - getting Mercedes engines and by the looks of it potentially some general Mercedes investment (Wehrlein as one of their drivers), Manor could face the most secure financial future they have had for a while. However, in terms of infrastructure, etc criterias they are well behind all established teams. However, what co-operation Mercedes could do is to develop Manor into a somewhat respectable backmarker as opposed to “embarrassingly-off-the-pace” backmarker, which they are now.
Verdict - at the back, but with a brigther future than a year ago.

Disclaimer - all guesses are subject to getting proven wrong. There are various variables in play and in all honesty I haven’t played with all of them a lot. One of these is chassis design quality, which often is very hard to predict and you need to know all the key personnel movements well. Retrospectively I still remember 2013, when McLaren’s completely average performance came out of the blue. Of course during 2012 technical chief Lowe left, but everyone was concentrated on Hamilton’s move and I didn’t pay sufficient attention to the Lowe factor.

With regards to 2016 I could ever-so-slightly play with some ideas - like McLaren designing a top 3 chassis again, or Williams dropping backwards. So it would be a bit of a turnaround, because as we remember - in 2014 Williams was clearly ahead of McLaren with the same PU. But the game of F1 is in constant change.

[AndyL]

Haas - F1 experience throughout years has proven very convincingly that it is better to be cautious than opportunistic in predicting good things for a newcomer. F1 is not like other series (WEC, WRC), where a big manufacturer can pump in lots of money and basically be at the front immediately. If Dallara can be within 3 seconds of pace-setting chassis, I’ll say it is well-done.
Verdict - should have a decent shot at toppling Manor, but points will be hard to come by.

The Dallara element is the one thing that concerns me about the Haas effort. While Dallara has a long and illustrious racing history, making chassis for one-make or de-facto one-make series is a very different proposition to the fierce competition of F1. I expect their car will either start out very overweight, or will have severe difficulty passing the FIA crash tests (which get even tougher next year).

[rjbetty]

Well yeah, lol.:D

It is a very vague memory by now, but the closest to "real life" dream I saw was Michael Schumacher securing the 2002 championship - a dream, which I believe I saw before the French GP that year. The difference was that in my dream he passed Olivier Panis, who was having a surprisingly good race in a BAR, to take the win (and WDC).

I have had some weird dreams, including one with an amazing 30 car field on a track that looked like a cross between Melbourne and Suzuka. It was only when I tried to analyse it after waking up that I realised there were actually 2 Massas in the field.

In the summer of 1999 I had one about the upcoming Malaysian Grand Prix where in a crazy race Pedro Diniz finished 2nd. Then one when Damon Hill won his swansong race in Japan. Then quite a good one before the 2012 season started where in a mixed weather Turkish GP Schumacher ran 3rd, but was overhauled by Massa by the end but they still got a very good 3rd and 4th. Only to realise there was no Turkish GP that year.

Needless to say, none have come true even remotely.

As for your dream Jens, not bad at all since that's pretty much how it happened except with Kimi instead of Panis.


As for predictions, how about this great one I made: After qualifying for the San Marino GP in 1999, I called out a top 6 of M.Schumacher (grid 3rd), Coulthard (2nd), Hakkinen (1st), Hill (8th) Fisichella (16th!) and Alesi (13th). After much wrangling I changed 3rd place to Barrichello (grid 6th).

Those with great memories or a glance at wiki will see that is the exact top 6 of that race! The only time I've ever managed it - I wish pickems was around then.

Around that time, I also had Eddie Irvine winning the German GP closely followed by the next 2 cars. As it happened, Salo and Frentzen did exactly that. Since then I broke my crystal ball and never did manage to fix it.

[jens]

I have had some weird dreams, including one with an amazing 30 car field on a track that looked like a cross between Melbourne and Suzuka. It was only when I tried to analyse it after waking up that I realised there were actually 2 Massas in the field.


My weirdest F1 dream was about 10 years ago, when it featured a 40-car-field (!!), including lots of Jordan teams (a lot of the field was yellow, hard to tell how much LOL) and there were 3-4 restarts, and in each race start the whole field went crazy and basically immediately crashed into each other. In the end the race was cancelled, because everyone had gone crazy and it was impossible to hold a race!

[jens]

Rjbetty seems to have disappeared for a while, but waiting for another Grand Prix 2 season then.:D To find out, whose turn is it to have unprecedented amount of unluck this time! :D

[zako85]

Predictably another boring season. When did F1 have a genuinely interesting season the last time? 2012? It has been a long time now. Not again please. Mercedes should fire Hamilton and Rosberg, then hire Bruno Senna and Esteban Gutierrez. That would level out the field a little bit.

[Nitrodaze]

Predictably another boring season. When did F1 have a genuinely interesting season the last time? 2012? It has been a long time now. Not again please. Mercedes should fire Hamilton and Rosberg, then hire Bruno Senna and Esteban Gutierrez. That would level out the field a little bit.

I am tempted to risk a guess, but l think l would rather wait for the first rounds of testing before l comment. However, l think Jens captured the current imagination of things to come very well. I would at least say that l expect some unexpected surprises to occur. I believe underrated Honda may turn up with a few surprises; l hope great surprise for Mclaren's sake. And, l suspect that Torro Rosso would consistently be ahead of the Redbull in most races in 2016. I also suspect that the Renault team may not drift as far back as one would think. Particularly since the chassis is already at the top end of the midfield. I think other surprises may come from the Haas team doing a better job than expected for a new entrant to F1.
I also would venture to say that the Williams may have real competition for 3rd place in 2016, particularly if their operational issues are not thoroughly resolved.
Of interest is whether Ferrari can make another step closer to Mercedes. There was a clear step forward mid season of 2015, does the engine have capacity for another step forward over the winter break? The true outlook of 2016 would be evident at the 1st pre-season test. If we are not seeing the Ferrari within 0.200 sec of the Mercedes best times, then we can resolve ourselves to another uncontested constructor and driver championships.

[jens]

Predictably another boring season. When did F1 have a genuinely interesting season the last time? 2012? It has been a long time now. Not again please. Mercedes should fire Hamilton and Rosberg, then hire Bruno Senna and Esteban Gutierrez. That would level out the field a little bit.

Yeah, 2012 can be considered as the last exciting season.

Actually, looking back it seems amazing that in the time period of 2005-2010 we always had multiple teams competing for the championship. Retrospectively it looks like some kind of a minor golden era.

As for 2016, not looking good I have to say. I do think there are lots of things open in the midfield, but I guess that's not a great consolation, because midfield is always tight. It is the front of the field that excites people and it is not looking as good.

[jens]

I also suspect that the Renault team may not drift as far back as one would think. Particularly since the chassis is already at the top end of the midfield.

Actually IMHO the Lotus/Renault chassis has been really underwhelming. Remember that McLaren got flak in 2014 for getting beaten by Williams with the same PU. Well, Lotus was the worst of the Merc' teams, and despite by far the best PU was only average and could barely beat the Toro Rosso.

I may be more optimistic about Renault PU, but even if they improve, it is not going to be on level with Mercedes. And if anything, Red Bull is likely to gain more from any improvement, because they are likely to have an inherently decent chassis.

As for PU integration. Sure enough, Renault will now be a factory team. BUT this also takes time, before the co-operation between Viry (Renault) and Enstone (chassis) factories has gelled.

Anyway... I see that it is only in 2017, when we could start discussing something about the Renault team. Before that Renault needs to pump in lots of money to (again) improve the quality of chassis design in the Enstone factory; they will have had a bit of time to make the "works team co-operation advantage" count for something; and perhaps they will also hire proper drivers for 2017 provided they have the money.

[Nitrodaze]

Actually IMHO the Lotus/Renault chassis has been really underwhelming. Remember that McLaren got flak in 2014 for getting beaten by Williams with the same PU. Well, Lotus was the worst of the Merc' teams, and despite by far the best PU was only average and could barely beat the Toro Rosso.

I may be more optimistic about Renault PU, but even if they improve, it is not going to be on level with Mercedes. And if anything, Red Bull is likely to gain more from any improvement, because they are likely to have an inherently decent chassis.

As for PU integration. Sure enough, Renault will now be a factory team. BUT this also takes time, before the co-operation between Viry (Renault) and Enstone (chassis) factories has gelled.

Anyway... I see that it is only in 2017, when we could start discussing something about the Renault team. Before that Renault needs to pump in lots of money to (again) improve the quality of chassis design in the Enstone factory; they will have had a bit of time to make the "works team co-operation advantage" count for something; and perhaps they will also hire proper drivers for 2017 provided they have the money.

I would normally agree with you due to my regard for your usually very well thought through comments. But you neglect to factor in the financial hardship that the Lotus team endured this season. They were locked out of their garages at most races this season. Then there were those unusually high levels of driver errors this year that cost Lotus loads of possible points. Considering Maldonado alone, he was responsible for a large quantity of potential points for the team. Hence on paper, your argument would be sound, but under closer scrutiny and analysis, one would find the problem was not due to deficiency of performance of the car but other factors; financial or other, which has caused the Lotus team from realizing their true potential.

You have to remember that Grojean managed to put the Lotus on the podium this year, which l assure you was no easy feat, in the face of the mights of Ferrari and Williams.

[zako85]

Actually IMHO the Lotus/Renault chassis has been really underwhelming. Remember that McLaren got flak in 2014 for getting beaten by Williams with the same PU. Well, Lotus was the worst of the Merc' teams, and despite by far the best PU was only average and could barely beat the Toro Rosso.


After 2013 season, Lotus has been in a lot of debt and on the brink of bankruptcy. That should tell you a lot.

[jens]

I would normally agree with you due to my regard for your usually very well thought through comments. But you neglect to factor in the financial hardship that the Lotus team endured this season. They were locked out of their garages at most races this season. Then there were those unusually high levels of driver errors this year that cost Lotus loads of possible points. Considering Maldonado alone, he was responsible for a large quantity of potential points for the team. Hence on paper, your argument would be sound, but under closer scrutiny and analysis, one would find the problem was not due to deficiency of performance of the car but other factors; financial or other, which has caused the Lotus team from realizing their true potential.

You have to remember that Grojean managed to put the Lotus on the podium this year, which l assure you was no easy feat, in the face of the mights of Ferrari and Williams.

There is a point in claims that Lotus chassis was better than appears in pure results sheet. However, considering, how well the Force India was going late in the season, I can't rate it above the FI. Also Lotus' development pace dropped off late in the year.

The issue with finances (or lack of them), is that they influence next year as well. Because 2016 car is largely developed during 2015. Financial hardship of 2015 means a bad car in 2016 - at best they can rectify it slightly with in-season development.

One of the best examples for this is the Brawn GP & Mercedes example. Brawn GP was a cash-strapped team in 2009, yet had a great car, because their car was developed during 2008, when Honda had lots of money. On the flipside the 2009 financial hardships meant that despite Mercedes' takeover the car was no match to RB/Ferrari/McLaren in 2010.

[Nitrodaze]

There is a point in claims that Lotus chassis was better than appears in pure results sheet. However, considering, how well the Force India was going late in the season, I can't rate it above the FI. Also Lotus' development pace dropped off late in the year.

The issue with finances (or lack of them), is that they influence next year as well. Because 2016 car is largely developed during 2015. Financial hardship of 2015 means a bad car in 2016 - at best they can rectify it slightly with in-season development.

One of the best examples for this is the Brawn GP & Mercedes example. Brawn GP was a cash-strapped team in 2009, yet had a great car, because their car was developed during 2008, when Honda had lots of money. On the flipside the 2009 financial hardships meant that despite Mercedes' takeover the car was no match to RB/Ferrari/McLaren in 2010.

I see your point. But you still neglect to factor in the level of rule changes that the Brawn had to face back then was much less than Renault would have to deal with on the chassis front in 2016. The main concern for the Renault team is around engine performance and operational efficiency. On paper, they have a good foundation to build from. Don't get me wrong, it is not going to be smooth sailing for them. Afterall, 2016 is a honeymoon year for the new team.

[jens]

I completed my annual pre-season prediction, without any testing guidelines.

Stayed up half a night to complete all races, so that's pretty crazy, but it was exciting as well.:)

F1 of 2016 looks like following.:D

1. Lewis Hamilton GBR Mercedes 373
2. Nico Rosberg GER Mercedes 315
3. Sebastian Vettel GER Ferrari 304
4. Daniel Ricciardo AUS Red Bull Tag Heuer 178
5. Kimi Räikkönen FIN Ferrari 174
6. Valtteri Bottas FIN Williams Mercedes 110
7. Daniil Kvyat RUS Red Bull Tag Heuer 105
8. Nico Hülkenberg GER Force India Mercedes 77
9. Fernando Alonso ESP McLaren Honda 74
10. Max Verstappen NED Toro Rosso Ferrari 73
11. Felipe Massa BRA Williams Mercedes 70
12. Sergio Pérez MEX Force India Mercedes 61
13. Jenson Button GBR McLaren Honda 49
14. Carlos Sainz ESP Toro Rosso Ferrari 31
15. Felipe Nasr BRA Sauber Ferrari 16
16. Marcus Ericsson SWE Sauber Ferrari 5
17. Pastor Maldonado VEN Renault 3
18. Romain Grosjean FRA Haas Ferrari 1
= Jolyon Palmer GBR Renault 1
20. Pascal Wehrlein GER Manor Mercedes 0
= Rio Haryanto INA Manor Mercedes 0
= Esteban Gutiérrez MEX Haas Ferrari 0

Constructors championship.
1. Mercedes GP - 688
2. Scuderia Ferrari - 478
3. Red Bull Tag Heuer - 283
4. Williams Mercedes - 180
5. Force India Mercedes - 138
6. McLaren Honda - 123
7. Toro Rosso Ferrari - 104
8. Sauber Ferrari - 21
9. Renault - 4
10. Haas Ferrari - 1
11. Manor Mercedes - 0

Some general notes.
- Pirelli brings pretty cr@ppy tyres for early part of the season, which catches Mercedes out in surprise and Vettel wins two races (Bahrain, Russia) on tyre management. Also Williams struggles in race trim with tyre deg.

- From Spanish GP onwards Mercedes is fully back in the game and loses only 2 wins after that. The wet Austrian GP goes to Vettel and Räikkönen gets his swansong win in the Malaysian GP, where Hamilton & Vettel have a controversial clash and Rosberg struggles with tyre degradation.

- Ricciardo puts in a stunning season in his 2014-style.

- midfield sees the emergence of great rivalry: Alonso v Verstappen. Old star and star of the future. They have a couple of controversial incidents. In the end there is nothing between them. Overall STR is a slightly better car than McLaren, but they once again struggle with race consistency/strategies and Max loses some points through immaturity.

Other than that and 3 wet races - not a classic season.:D

Edit: Oh, and a 20-race-season. The current provisional calendar has 21 races, but US GP will be cancelled...

[Tazio]

I completed my annual pre-season prediction, without any testing guidelines.

Stayed up half a night to complete all races, so that's pretty crazy, but it was exciting as well.:)

F1 of 2016 looks like following.:D


Well done Jens!
I would just like to go on record now saying I will give 1,000.00 USD to every member of this forum if Haas finishes dead last........:angel:

[jens]

Well done Jens!
I would just like to go on record now saying I will give 1,000.00 USD to every member of this forum if Haas finishes dead last........:angel:

You are one brave man, Taz!!

And needless to say, you seem to have a bottomless supply of USD's. Good to know! :)

[Nitrodaze]

Well done Jens!
I would just like to go on record now saying I will give 1,000.00 USD to every member of this forum if Haas finishes dead last........:angel:
Tazio, your cheque from 2015 bounced, l am not sure about your 2016 one :-). But l see your point and hope Haas surprises everyone. But it would be tough.

[Rollo]

While Dallara has a long and illustrious racing history, making chassis for one-make or de-facto one-make series is a very different proposition to the fierce competition of F1. I expect their car will either start out very overweight, or will have severe difficulty passing the FIA crash tests (which get even tougher next year).

Why?

Surely they'll build things to a set of design specifications. They built the Hispania F110 and it passed the crash tests.

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/81850
The HRT challenger has been designed by Italian racing car constructor Dallara - which endured weeks of uncertainty in its preparation following financial problems with the outfit when it was known as Campos.

- Jonathan Noble, Autosport, 4th Mar 2010

If Haas adequately funds Dallara and allows it the time and space to develop new bits, then Haas should do a bit better than HRT did.

[AndyL]

Why?

Surely they'll build things to a set of design specifications. They built the Hispania F110 and it passed the crash tests.

And, if I recall correctly, it was notably overweight.

And that was with a V8. When the current, heavier power units came in, even some established teams found it tricky to get under the weight limit while still passing the crash tests.

At least, I assume that was my reasoning, I have enough trouble remembering what I was thinking about last week, never mind 3 months ago :)

[airshifter]

Haas has finished the crash test, and is on track for testing.

http://www.formula1.com/content/fom-website/en/latest/headlines/2016/1/haas-on-target-for-february-test-debut.html

And for the record, I think Tazio's money is at much less risk with his forum bet for this year. These guys have a lot of knowledge base behind them, and they also have the influence from Ferrari. I don't expect them to challenge for the top, but I'd bet that they beat at least several more seasoned teams on the grid.

My putting off their entry until this year they have had a lot of time without testing restrictions, as well as time to learn the ups and downs of the other teams. Not having a race schedule to contend with while tweaking the car does open things up in terms of manpower.

[jens]

And for the record, I think Tazio's money is at much less risk with his forum bet for this year.

Interesting to think about it now, but exactly a year ago (in January 2015 before any winter tests) nobody would have thought it conceivable that McLaren wouldn't get even a podium! So you never know!

[Tazio]

Interesting to think about it now, but exactly a year ago (in January 2015 before any winter tests) nobody would have thought it conceivable that McLaren wouldn't get even a podium! So you never know!
Yeah well it's never too early to put the kiss of death on a team :p:
I'm thinking of combining Haas, and McLaren in the formation of this seasons FGP team:
"The Fighting Anglo-American Mafia" :angel:

[airshifter]

Yeah well it's never too early to put the kiss of death on a team :p:
I'm thinking of combining Haas, and McLaren in the formation of this seasons FGP team:
"The Fighting Anglo-American Mafia" :angel:

I hate to say it, but I think Haas has as much hope as McLaren for 2016. Honda is way off the game, and until they figure it out, they can't really sort out the chassis much better either.

[The Black Knight]

Well apparently Maldonado's seat is under threat.

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/122473

It would be great to see that clown gone from F1 next year if his sponsorship falls through. The grid talent and safety would rise significantly.

[jens]

So the next step is to wait for the launch of cars to start the annual arguing about whose car looks fast.:p:

[jens]

A lot of time may go by, but some things never change.

Once upon a time silver German cars were dominating the field, and Scuderia Ferrari - as their closest competitors - could only hope for the dominant Mercedes cars to break down, to have a hope at winning.

The story of 2015.
The story of 1930s.

;)

[Rollo]

Team Tharazero will be running two cars:

A Shadow DN5 and a Coloni C3B. Both will have a couple of 6A10 V6 engines from a 1994 Mitsubishi Mirage with a turbo from a DAF. KERS will be gained use Dyson Airblades.

[jens]

Team Tharazero will be running two cars:

A Shadow DN5 and a Coloni C3B. Both will have a couple of 6A10 V6 engines from a 1994 Mitsubishi Mirage with a turbo from a DAF. KERS will be gained use Dyson Airblades.

By the looks of it certainly a dark horse. I'll have my eye on them. ;)

[Tazio]

Boss pimpin' for Ferrari in The USA ;)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-3405648/Lewis-Hamilton-swaps-silver-Mercedes-red-rivals-Ferrari-pulls-Beverly-Hills-restaurant-stunning-1-1-million-supercar.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

[Bagwan]

Boss pimpin' for Ferrari in The USA ;)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-3405648/Lewis-Hamilton-swaps-silver-Mercedes-red-rivals-Ferrari-pulls-Beverly-Hills-restaurant-stunning-1-1-million-supercar.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

Yeah , man , and he was playing with Enzo , too .

He is clearly giving secret signals that he wants to go to the red side .


I'm hoping this season is going to be a good one .

We've got a stable Manor on the grid , and a new entry in Haas .
We've got Lotus back in Renault hands .
Red Bull's got an engine .
Mac sacrificed last year to be stronger this year , so should make some serious strides .
The reds are talking large .
And , maybe Nico can challenge like he did in the last three .
We've got more tire choice now , so teams may not be as hobbled at times , but may get it very wrong at other times as well .
PUs have been made less costly , so future costing for customers is not only cheaper , but easier to budget , being at a fixed rate across the board .
Some elements being standardized means less re-design down time if you want to change manufacturers , and less time spent dealing with some of the difficult packaging problems brought on by working with elements designed for another team's car .

The FIA is being audited , and the EU commission may finally get things straightened out , so the minnows can compete with the sharks a little easier .

I've just got a sub for Joe Saward's mag for Chrimbo , so I'll have some more of his insight to peruse , and I've now got a KODI box , so I can watch it all , on any channel , on any network , in any language I wish .

I'm ready for it .
And , I'm hoping for a good one .

[dj_bytedisaster]

F1 in 2016 can be summarized in four words: It's gonna be shit.

[Bagwan]

F1 in 2016 can be summarized in four words: It's gonna be shit.

Well , aren't we in a happy little sunshiny mood today ?

It can't be all that bad , can it ?
Tell me why you're thinking such brown thoughts , dj .

[Bagwan]

So , dj , have you changed your mind about the season , or have you just forgotten why you said it was gonna be brown ?

[Rollo]

F1 in 2016 can be summarized in four words: It's gonna be shit.

F1 on free-to-air in Australia might also be summarized in four words: Ain't gonna be on.

Channel 10 have not confirmed if they are showing any races live in 2016. CEO Paul Anderson was on the radio tonight and was asked that question. He didn't give much of an answer.

[Rollo]

Once upon a time silver German cars were dominating the field, and Scuderia Ferrari - as their closest competitors - could only hope for the dominant Mercedes cars to break down, to have a hope at winning.

The story of 2015.
The story of 1930s.

;)

Considering that Ferrari didn't start until 1939 and during the war... how was this possible?

[jens]

Considering that Ferrari didn't start until 1939 and during the war... how was this possible?

Enzo Ferrari was the team boss and Scuderia Ferrari team was running the Alfa Romeos in 1930s.

During the recession in early 30s Alfa Romeo pulled out as a works team and Enzo bought their cars to set up his team.

[zako85]

F1 in 2016 can be summarized in four words: It's gonna be shit.

The post nominated for the 2016 winter break Captain Obvious award.

[Tazio]

Enzo Ferrari was the team boss and Scuderia Ferrari team was running the Alfa Romeos in 1930s.

During the recession in early 30s Alfa Romeo pulled out as a works team and Enzo bought their cars to set up his team.
That's right mate

After Alfa Romeo officially withdrew from Grand Prix racing Nuvolari drove for Enzo Ferrari (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enzo_Ferrari)'s team, Scuderia Ferrari (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scuderia_Ferrari), who ran the Alfa Romeo cars semi-officially. In 1933 he won Le Mans in an Alfa Romeo as a member of Ferrari's team, and a month later won the Belgian Grand Prix in a works Maserati (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maserati_8CM), having switched teams a week before the race.[3] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tazio_Nuvolari#cite_note-FOOTNOTEHilton2003111-3)Mussolini (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benito_Mussolini) helped persuade Ferrari to take Nuvolari back for 1935

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Qwfl4Rg7FE

[N. Jones]

I guess Honda isn't ready to shed last year's image??

[Nitrodaze]

F1 in 2016 can be summarized in four words: It's gonna be shit.

It may not be quite as shite as you put it. There are lots of opportunities for some surprises to turn up. I think vettel is going to be strong. And Mercedes do not seem to know what to do with their drivers. A strong Ferrari challenge may upset the apple cart abit and turn the season into a real seat edge season. I really hope it does.

[zako85]

And Mercedes do not seem to know what to do with their drivers.

Oh, the tragedy of being rich, having the best engine, by far, and two very good drivers. Mercedes will not be able to cope with this, I predict.

[jens]

Oh, the tragedy of being rich, having the best engine, by far, and two very good drivers. Mercedes will not be able to cope with this, I predict.

Yeah... Mercedes seemed to cope with it fine in 2014 and 2015 by taking 1-2 in Drivers Championship and a combined 16 wins out of 19 in both seasons.:)

Unless Ferrari is a genuine match to Mercedes or at least very close (0.1-0.2s off the pace), it would take a monumental blow up by Mercedes to make this championship truly close.

In this era of very high reliabilty rates I wouldn't bet on it much though. Mercedes can afford a couple of DNFs and still win titles with relative easy. If it was the 1980s, it could be a different story,... We could see the dominant team retiring with blown turbo engines from half of the races, and this could make the championship really open indeed... But alas this is 2016, not 198X!!

[Nitrodaze]

If Ferrari turns out to be a damp squid by the end of the 3rd race, then you can say the die is cast for this season with another easy Mercedes title win. If not, then boys hang on to your hats, as it could be really down to wire before we know whats what. I hope this is the case.

[Nitrodaze]

I think Mercedes may be vulnerable this season because of the equal pairing of their drivers which is obviously causing them problems. It is bizzarre that they have equality between a triple world champion and a driver yet to win one title. Just doesn't make sense. You would think now they have found the win assuring driver, they would focus their campaign around that driver. I have sneaking feeling that they would not have the luxury of allowing their drivers to race each other with a possible Ferrari revival that could take advantage of the squabbling in Mercedes and maybe steal the title. It only takes one point as Mclaren found in 2007.

[Firstgear]

...... It is bizzarre that they have equality between a triple world champion and a driver yet to win one title......
Given that the 'title-less' driver is of the same nationality as the team itself, I think it would be a little more difficult and an unpopular decision to designate him as a quasi-official #2. Remember, when they entered F1 a few years ago, they started with an all German driver lineup. I don't think that was a coincidence. Their ultimate goal, understandably for a German car manufacturer, would be to have a German driver winning the crown.

[N. Jones]

Is anybody really expecting Haas to do much this season? There is a lot of talk but not much substance.

[Morte66]

Is anybody really expecting Haas to do much this season? There is a lot of talk but not much substance.

As a Grosjean fan, I would like somebody to pop up and tell me why Haas are going to do great this year.

Unfortunately, the few mentions of Haas I've read pretty much say "don't expect anything".

[zako85]

Is anybody really expecting Haas to do much this season? There is a lot of talk but not much substance.

See Lotus Racing/Caterham. There was exactly the same amount of hype about that team with no real results after years of racing. I do hope that Haas will do better. To be honest, Haas does not exactly create too much hype. They say "It will be a long road, but we will be Ferrari's B-team". On the other hand, Tony Fernandes and others of Lotus Racing had been making delusional statements like "we have a great legacy to live up to" or something like that. It's like they were hinting at the ambitions of matching the original Team Lotus. In the end, they exited F1 racing without scoring a point.

[jens]

I have to say it is incredibly silent at this time of year. In late January we used to have car launches (some of them already in mid-January), and also testing used to begin in late January.

Now there is complete silence... We have to wait till mid-February at least I think before someone blinks? How unusual...

[Tazio]

Lately I've been reading (Gene's words) how how F1 will advance Haas Automation, Gene seems to be changing his tune just a little as the season approaches, I think the reality of the endeavor is starting to set in. I do hope Haas is in it for the long haul.
On a separate note, F1 salaries :eek: :crazy:
http://en.f1i.com/magazine/40044-2016-f1-driver-salaries.html?

[RS]

Is anybody really expecting Haas to do much this season? There is a lot of talk but not much substance.

They should be pretty good for a first year team, but i'm not sure Haas could really take much credit if they are. Dallara chassis and Ferrari tech. I'd be surprised if they don't score.

I'm surprised that the team keep talking up Gutierrez so much though like he hasn't been signed because of hus Ferrari links or Telmex money.

[steveaki13]

I hope Haas are able to step above the level of the Lotus, Virgin & Hispania when they entered. I mean maybe for year 1 that would be OK, but if they stay around for a few years they must step up and move into the lower midfield before long.

I assume Manor will be as last as always, but if Haas have a slow start Manor might have someone to race,

[Morte66]

Do we know what name Enstone/Renault will be using this coming year?

I imagine Renault will want to stick with "Lotus" until they do well, then switch to "Renault"; but has anything been announced.

[Kind of hoping for "Toleman Renault" myself.]

[The Black Knight]

Maldonado gone - WHOOP WHOOP! Hopefully he doesn't get a Manor-Mercedes drive and we can see the back of the moron.

[Robinho]

Ding Ding the witch is dead and even better is Magnussen getting the drive

[AndyL]

Ding Ding the witch is dead and even better is Magnussen getting the drive

Bad news for Jolyon Palmer. It'll be more difficult for him to look good compared to Magnussen than to Maldonado.

[Nitrodaze]

Bad news for Jolyon Palmer. It'll be more difficult for him to look good compared to Magnussen than to Maldonado.
Magnussen is more experienced, hence you would expect him to have the edge on track. The real guage for Palmer is how close he can get to Magnussen within the first six races. If he regularly gets one on Magnussen, he would definitely raise a few eyebrows. I hope he does well, but he would have to up his game to not look ordinary next a brilliant Magnussen.

[jens]

I am not sure Magnussen is that brilliant. Button beat him fairly comfortably in the end. I do think Magnussen is more talented than Maldonado, but Palmer may well run K-Mag fairly close.

[AndyL]

What I was thinking, really, was that even if Maldonado turned out to be faster than Palmer, Palmer could still easily beat him on consistency. But with Magnussen that won't be so easy, as Magnussen will likely be consistent too.

[Tazio]

Actually Pastor is in pretty good company as a "one win wonder"
http://www.formula1.com/content/fom-website/en/latest/features/2016/2/pastor-maldonado-f1-one-win-wonders.html?

The problem as I see it is what the hell was he thinking/doing in so many of his other races? :spinhead:

[Nitrodaze]

I am not sure Magnussen is that brilliant. Button beat him fairly comfortably in the end. I do think Magnussen is more talented than Maldonado, but Palmer may well run K-Mag fairly close.

Magnussen did beat Button a few times too. That said, Palmer has the advantage of being familiar with the car, both on simulator and the occasional Saturday practice sessions. But he lacks full race experience with an F1 car. I don't expect this aspect to be too challenging for him. But l suspect it would take him a few races to get up to par with other rookies. He would be the least experienced driver on the grid, depending on who gets the manor drives. He needs to be within half a second of Magnussen on the get go, and withing 200th of a second within 6 races. I think that is acheivable.