A tale of Three champions

[Nitrodaze]

All the talk is about Bottas heading to Ferrari, which is great for Bottas and well deserved l might add. Not so good for Williams that discovered and has nurtured this prodigious talent. Bottas in a ferrari would be awesome. Given fair treatment and ferrari geting its act together with the car, could be world champion within 3 years.
But if Williams had to replace Bottas and as it were, having Alonso (Double World Champion), Button (World Champion) and Kimi (World Champion) to choose from, what are the consideration to drive their choice?

Taking each in turn,

ALONSO: There is the obvious friction of the pairing of Alonso with Massa following their history at Ferrari. An experience Massa would not wish to relive. There is also the question of whether he would fit in to the Williams culture. That said, Alonso brings with him a few tenths more than the maximum of the car's potential. If anyone can drag the Williams to the front, Alonso is that man without a doubt. but would he want to move to another team fighting for the tails of the Mercedes and behind the Ferrari that he left? There are obvious reasons for this to happen at the risk of some internal but possibly manageable unbalance. Pat Symonds has worked with Alonso at Renault in the past and may want the double world champion in the Williams fold. Their pairing resulted in his suspension from the sport for a number of years, hence you might wonder hmmm?
Rod Smedley who was Massa's engineer at Ferrari has worked with Alonso but with a very different relationship compared to Symond's. And also the well remembered phrase "Massa, Alonso is faster than you" underlines the potential source of difficulty of reuniting Massa, Smedley and Alonso at Williams. You could say this is not going to happen and be right but objectively there are stronger reasons to have Alonso in a Williams car than not. Also there are financial considerations of course. it would not be cheap to tear Alonso away from his Mclaren contract

BUTTON : On paper, Jenson is the perfect fit for Williams. He is super fast, he started his F1 career at Williams hence they know his true abilities. His personality may work well with the Williams culture and with Massa. He is an easier candidate for Symonds and Smedley to see eye to eye on. And he is not being made to look ordinary alongside Alonso in the Mclaren. Not to mention his vast F1 experience and being a World Champion. Also, Jenson may be out of contract in 2016 as Mclaren has not signed him up yet. If l was Massa, l would be slightly concerned as the pairing of Button to his countryman Barrichello did not go so well for Barrichello who had the clearest chance of winning the world championship but didn't for reasons outside his control. And Button is going to be considerably more expensive than the leaving Bottas. The Massa-Button pairing would be very strong and could be very good for Williams.

Raikonen: On paper, Kimi is just as good for Williams as Jenson is. He would fit very well in Williams where his demure personality would most likely flourish better than at Ferrari. He is super fast when he has the car to his liking under him and a world Champion. He has a number of demons to get over, his performance at Ferrari has looked poor and has been dominated by 2 of his last teammates at Ferrari. He also would be having the ignominy of being Ferrari's cast off on 2 occasions. Which makes him the least favourite to land the Williams drive. More so, he would be expensive. But that said, if Williams can give Kimi the car he has been seeking for the last 4 years, he is just as good as Alonso and could be a dark horse in all of this.

Other points to consider:-
Cost may drive Williams to look for a talented but less experience driver. It is not outside the realms of possibility that they opt for one of the Toro Rosso drivers or even give the drive to their more experienced Reserve Driver Adrian Sutil. There is also the option of the formula E world Champion and the very impressive Verne as well. Williams may kiss and make up with their estranged money bag driver at Lotus, which would definitely boost the Williams development.

Williams are in a great place at the moment with a choice of champions and possibilities of developing the next Bottas. What l would say is that their choice would certainly define their intentions for the future and l look forward to seeing the result. But given these choices, who would you pick and why?

[AndyL]

If Williams could get Alonso, they should take him, and give Felipe the boot if he doesn't like it. That's completely academic though - Alonso is in for the long haul with McLaren/Honda and Williams are not in a financial position to be buying out driver contracts from other major teams.

Button is a realistic prospect. McLaren have to put Vandoorne in an F1 car soon, so Button could well be out of a job next year. If he wants to stay in F1 he'll have to take a pay cut, but yes even on pay parity with Massa he'd still be more costly than Bottas. However he may be more attractive to sponsors which might offset that to some degree.

I don't see Kimi being in F1 next year, and you know what - I think he'll be fine with it. It'll free up a lot of time for partying; and when it comes to getting his racing fix, I can imagine Kimi being just as happy thrashing a knackered Saab 900 in a local club rally back home as he is in an F1 car.

[Nitrodaze]

Of course, there is Palmer [GP2 Champion] reserve driver at Lotus, Magnussen and Vandoorne [leading the current GP2 championship]. The choices could not be better for Williams right now. To be honest, the Toro Rosso pair are not a real option for Williams, but l thought l should throw them in anyway.

[Nitrodaze]

Alonso is in for the long haul with McLaren/Honda and Williams are not in a financial position to be buying out driver contracts from other major teams.
I doubt Alonso would be driving for Mclaren if the 2nd half of this year do not show some marked improvement up the grid order. If there is any indication that the Mclaren -Honda car is going to be a mid-field team next year, Alonso may exercise his option to leave due to poor performance of the car.
The question remains whether Williams can afford him in monetary terms and can Williams deliver a Championship winning car for Alonso if he joins them at an agreeable price? The Williams at the British GP does not give that promise, hence Williams would have to come up with more to entice Alonso in the first place. For Alonso to leave Mclaren would be a public acceptance that he made a serious error of judgement leaving Ferrari.
Alonso's problem is, he doesn't have the time for a long haul project to clinch his 3rd world title. At the same time, the Mclaren-Honda experiment is just the thing that could disrupt the order of things within 2 years, assuming the pressure to deliver do not irreparably damage the relationship between Mclaren and Honda.
Lets face it, Alonso is between a rock and hard place. Staying at Mclaren could pay off very handsomely in the long run, but it is fraught with some danger that the project could fall apart under its own pressure of being heavy weights used to success. Jumping so soon out of the Mclaren-Honda project could prove another miscalculation as the Ferrari one. More so, the Williams beating the Mercedes team with a Mercedes engine would require something special on the chassis and aero front.

I think we would know what Alonso is doing in the second half of this season. The return to the Williams glory days is more possible with Alonso than any other driver free out there.

[truefan72]

I never even considered alonso leaving Mclaren and i know Dennis would make things difficult.
But if he has a performance clause and is willing to take a reduced salary for other considerations then williams should be clearly find a way to sign him up.
I think it all depends on the 2nd half of 2015
But I think that Hulkenberg is the on e in the prime position to take that williams seat if bottas leaves.
although folks rate Bottas high, i think that the real jewel is Hulkenberg. and TBH i'd rather see him take that ferrari seat than Bottas.
Hulkenberg's performances have proven beyond any shadow of doubt that he is an elite driver in need of a top seat

As for Button, I think he retires at the end of the year and perhaps does sportscars as well as punditry.
He is a new father and in the twilight of his career. It is also the perfect time to leave the sport.
And massa should follow him out as well.

Kimi is a bit of an enigma. I've come around to the thinking that if he leaves ferrari he leaves F1. I don;t see him motivated to be in a midfield team, and Williams might be the only team that might keep him in F1. But i'm not sure that seat will be offered to him.

[Nitrodaze]

But I think that Hulkenberg is the on e in the prime position to take that williams seat if bottas leaves.
although folks rate Bottas high, i think that the real jewel is Hulkenberg. and TBH i'd rather see him take that ferrari seat than Bottas.
Hulkenberg's performances have proven beyond any shadow of doubt that he is an elite driver in need of a top seat

Wise head you have Truefan72. Alan Mcnish is very much in the same opinion which puts you in very heady company. After the Le Mans victory, one cannot rule out Hulkenberg. I have rated him highly for some time. I thought Mclaren were going to snap him up instead of Perez a few years back but didn't. But that is another post. Hulkenberg would really be great for Williams. Hulkenberg have a small problem of weight and height, which l think has been putting off most teams. He is a big lad and chassis engineers prefer slight fellows to optimize the weight of the car.

[AndyL]

With Hulkenberg's luck, if he goes to Williams it almost guarantees they will have a terrible car next season.

[Nitrodaze]

With Hulkenberg's luck, if he goes to Williams it almost guarantees they will have a terrible car next season.
:-) The Sauber jinx

[jens]

Williams & possible 3 WDCs competing for the seat(s)?

Alonso? I think he has made his bed with McLaren. Even if they are not going to be competitive anywhere in the future (or as long as Alonso's career lasts), I think he is not going to leave to a privateer team, who won't win the title anyway. Then again... Alonso's somewhat restless character can sometimes be hard to predict, and he may make a sudden turn in his decision-making yet again.

Räikkönen? I can see him leaving F1 altogether after the Ferrari stint. I am unsure if he would have motivation for Williams, even though he came back to F1 in Lotus, who wasn't a proven top team at the time either. A long shot I'd say, but possibly unlikely.

Button? The most likely option here. With his career nearing the end also, he'd like nothing more than having a few seasons in competitive cars. I think he'd be prepared for a paycut as well. I think he is less desperate than Alonso for WDCs and "building up a team" from doldrums, so he'd be happy with just some decent results. Also he has stayed in McLaren for a while and may look for a change, while Alonso just joined McLaren.

But... will any of them join? The big question for me is - would Williams hire Button over Massa? Now that's the question. Would they even sign those two aging drivers together? Or would Williams sign at least one somewhat younger driver, be it someone in the middle of his career (i.e Hülkenberg, Grosjean), or someone in the beginning (i.e Magnussen) or even someone, who can pay for his seat (i.e Pérez).

With Bottas possibly getting soon confirmed at Ferrari, Williams is the next big seat to play for with lots of potential players going for it!

[jens]

With Hulkenberg's luck, if he goes to Williams it almost guarantees they will have a terrible car next season.

That's possible.:p: I still can't understand, how on earth hasn't Hulk achieved even a single podium so far in his career! Heck, even the likes of Eric Bernard, Tiago Monteiro, and other almost forgotten drivers got podium(s).

[CNR]

http://www.crash.net/f1/news/221215/1/f1-2015-driver-salaries-published-but-who-earns-most.html
1. Fernando Alonso McLaren-Honda €35m
4. Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari €18m
6. Jenson Button McLaren-Honda €10m

with Ferrari money the may be able to get button but after last time

http://www.grandprix.com/ns/ns15644.html
British driver Jenson Button is free to remain at BAR-Honda next season after buying his way out of the contract he made with Williams.

The 25-year-old signed a deal to switch to Williams for 2006 last year, the team with which he got his Formula 1 break in 2000, but in July this year Button decided he wanted to stay on at BAR.

A Williams team statement said, "As consideration for the release from the terms of his contract, Jenson has agreed a financial settlement with WilliamsF1." No details of the agreement have been made, but it is believed that the deal pays Williams an estimated $30m

[AndyL]

with Ferrari money the may be able to get button but after last time

If Alonso can return to McLaren, then anyone can return anywhere in F1!

[kfzmeister]

I can't see ALO going to Williams. Like has been suggested before, you cannot win a Championship unless you are a factory team. So his best chances are with McLaren, as much as that now pains me to say.

RAI will not go to another team, why should he? His best chances to do anything, are only with Ferrari. I don't see him having an issue with leaving F1 (again).

BUT seems to be the one they are suggesting, may be a good candidate for a potential Williams seat. He's happy to still be able to just compete, without needing another title.

Out of the three mentioned, my pick is BUT

[Nitrodaze]

So the Alonso situation took another twist yesterday as he hinted at moving to another racing formula. His main gripes with F1 are :-

1. The quick degrading Pirelli tyres
2. Lack of in-season testing
3. Severe limitations of the rules regarding:-
(a) Design
(b) Operation of the car
4. Narrow speed difference between F1 and the lower category GP2 which is currently around 2 seconds
5. Increase of racing calendar to 21 races next year.

There are quite a few things wrong with F1 at the mo. And Alonso is bound to have a much clearer perspective of what they are, dealing with the extreme effects of the rules while driving in the Mclaren-Honda undergoing transformation in the face of these rules. It is also worrying when the commercial side of F1 is deciding who the tyre supplier should be for F1. Surely, the FIA should specify the requirements for the tyre and commercial side should simply find a supplier that meets the specification.

I can understand Alonso's points. For one, some may say that replacing in-season testing with races, defeats the point of not doing in-season testing. The spend level is not reduced, reduction of cost is what removing in-season testing was supposed to achieve. Though, profit is greatly increased with more races. The infusion of new cash streams is great for the sport, particularly if it means teams at the tail end of the grid get a better deal.

The narrow gap between F1 and GP2, has made it much easier for the transition into F1 for rookies feeding into F1 from the lower categories. But this is also an indication that F1 is not as challenging as the Schumacher era and those prior to that. It would seem F1 has got soft. I think Alonso is hinting that the playing field in F1 is too level and plain, and the car has been the main distinguishing factor for some time. I wonder if it is correct to say that the rules makes it difficult for privateer teams like Williams, Force India and Sauber to be in position to disrupt the front end of the grid with innovative design. The limiting factors that Alonso is talking about seem to have killed off novel innovation that surpass the engine power aspect of performance. The sort of difference that would allow privateer teams to innovate their way to the front of the grid with small budgets.

Maybe the problem with the rules is symptomatic of how the rules are made in the first place. That aspect probably need to evolve with the times. Whatever the case, it would be very sad to see Alonso leave F1 for another series because of the above reasons.

[N4D13]

The only reason why Alonso would leave F1 is that he would think that he would never again win the WDC. Any other point is moot and said simply to mask his true concern.

[Nitrodaze]

The only reason why Alonso would leave F1 is that he would think that he would never again win the WDC. Any other point is moot and said simply to mask his true concern.

That is true to some extent, but there are a lot of questions being raised about the state of F1 in recent times. Is the FIA dancing to the tune of the commercial people too much or are they going to boldly take hold of this formula and restore it to its true stature. That is the real question. While F1 is a show, it is also a sport with an element of bleeding edge technology. Its appeal is not really the show aspect of it. It is the technological innovation and ingenuity of designers and engineers, its raw speed and the craftmanship of F1 drivers. The occasion to witness that is the show. Faking it with gizmos at the expense of unbridled ingenuity [within safe limits of course] and raw speed is where most disillusionment with F1 is stemming from.

I wonder if the tail end of the F1 grid is faster than the fastest GP2 car or just faster. Is it possible for a well tweaked GP2 spec car to qualify timewise to race in F1 if the difference in spec were overlooked. The requirement to race in F1 is for the backmarker cars to qualify within 2 seconds of the pole time or at the discretion of the race stewards and race management team.

I wish the BBC or SKY would take up the challenge of putting the Manor alongside the GP2 Championship leading car on a head to head race round silverstone to see the difference between the tail end of F1 and the sharp end of GP2. To make it interesting throw in the F3 car as well on a best of 5 lap race.

[N4D13]

You are absolutely right, Nitrodaze. My remark was purely about Alonso's motives, but there is no denying that F1 has been and continues to be poorly managed.