P5 in the constructors championship

[jens]

Looks like we have a nice competition for fifth in the Constructors championship this year. So who do you think will end up there?

Sauber (on 21 pts) is currently fifth, but seems to be fading after early season impression.
Force India (on 17 pts) in contrast started out very slowly, but is gradually coming back stronger.
Lotus (on 16 pts) has had the speed at times, but only 1 driver scoringso far.
Toro Rosso (on 15 pts) has also shown lots of speed, but thrown away results with bad pitstops, unreliability and driver inexperience too.
McLaren (on 4 pts) is some way off for now, but could become more competitive in midfield in the second half of the season. Will it be too late then or not?

[Mekola]

Lotus, if they keep their style, are the favourites. Mostly relying in their Merc engines.

[Robinho]

Sauber and FI are only to go backwards, Torro Rosso and Mclaren are likely to go forwards (if Renault and Honda close the engine gap somewhat). However Lotus seem to have an inherently decent car, some development potential and Merv engine, so I can see them staying ahead of the other 2 and all 3 overhauling Sauber and FI

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[rjbetty]

Cool thread Jens.

Havw I again made a mistake in banking on McLaren...? :(

Lets also have a look at the prospects of these five teams over the remaining 12 races:

Sauber-Ferrari
Apparently they're gonna get a pretty good upgrade at some pint. Also, they will benefit from Ferrari developments. Otherwise they're back to the bad old days of going backwards...

Force India-Mercedes
I hadn't noticed that they already have 17pts. :) Could be a dark hhorse if rumours are true that their B Spec car is a bit of a rocket. Personally I'll believe it when I see it. Also, they have never before finished 5th in the WDC so it's a lot to ask now.

Lotus-Mercedes
Probably the realistic favourite, especially if they bag a big result tofay. I don't know what their development prospects are but surely Maldonado has to help out soon.

Toro Rosso-Renault
Unlikely. Renault don't seem to have much development and I guess the car won't get any quicker than it has been. That may be it for good results.

McLaren-Honda
The biggest unknown. They are still only 9th best team but they always said Canada wouldn't suit them. Yet Alonso qualified within 2sec off the pace. The improvement since Melbournw is maybe much better than it looks then. They need to improve by another 1sec probably to stand a real hope of 5th.

Developments are due next race in Austria, but I hear a big one is for Hungary, so there's a half decent chance they could turn things round after the summer break. Don't forget McLaren's 2004 season where they were rubbished, only to win a race and score podiums with Kimi later in the year. A lot can still change.

So again I've stuck my neck out at McLaren. I hope they can pleasantly surprise me for once.

[jens]

OK... I voted for Lotus, but it really was a close call.

I do think they have a decentish car, and a car, which is a bit better than Force India. But Lotus is not a team, who capitalizes well on opportunities. Drivers have made some mistakes. Especially Maldonado is never reliable. There have been reliability issues.

Force India I think has problems in aerodynamics department. They were nowhere in Barcelona, and I guess circuits like Silverstone will be tough for them as well. But elsewhere they are nicely in the points. But I think they have ability to give Lotus a good run for their money, especially after very troubled start into the season. And they have 2 good drivers.

Sauber I don’t have confidence in. They may even drop back to 9th. They really punched above their weight in Australia.

Toro Rosso has a really good chassis. Early in the season I even thought they may have 3rd best chassis! But it was probably temporary and James Key can’t do any more miracles than that. Plus Renault power unit is holding them back heavily compared to the Mercedes-powered teams. STR will get small scores here and there, plus probably on some circuits (Hungary, Singapore) will go really well, but P5 could be a tad high with rookie drivers and -khm- Renault.

Unlike rjbetty, no such vote of confidence for McLaren by me. They should start getting minor points more regularly later in the season, but other midfield teams get those points too. McLaren may catch and pass some of those middling teams though, but perhaps not up to P5.

[jens]

Force India-Mercedes
Also, they have never before finished 5th in the WDC so it's a lot to ask now.


The competition for P5 this year is weak, so-to-speak, so this helps FI's case. It is not like anybody else has a strong case for P5.

It is a bit like how Sauber achieved their best WCC position back in 2001. First three teams were well clear of everybody else and Sauber only just nicked that 4th place ahead of all the other underperforming teams at the time.

[N4D13]

I'm voting for McLaren, but only out of sympathy for Taz.

[steveaki13]

I'm voting for McLaren, but only out of sympathy for Taz.

Ha :laugh::laugh:

[Firstgear]

Three of these teams are perennial midfielders, the other two (McLaren and Lotus) should be at least a notch higher.
Lotus, with their erratic all-or-nothing drivers, should eventually cash in on a podium to leap ahead of the three perennials.
McLaren, on the other hand, will soon start to drop even further behind because they'll give up on this car and start focusing their development on next year's.
So my vote, P5 goes to Lotus, thanks to Mal...dare I type that?....Maldon....I just can't do it....thanks to Grosean's (eventual) podium points.

[Mia 01]

Mercedes
Ferrari
Williams
Toro Rosso
Lotus

[zako85]

McLaren is not going to sort out its engine problems this year. Among the others, Force India has the best drivers.

[jens]

Force India moved up to fifth, but Lotus is right there as well. It really looks like those two teams could be pulling away now, making best use of their superior power units.

[jens]

Force India has pulled ahead of Lotus. Yeah I follow this battle and cheer for FI. They are among my top 3 favourite teams on the grid.:) Record high 5th place in WCC is looming on the horizon!

[jens]

Three of these teams are perennial midfielders, the other two (McLaren and Lotus) should be at least a notch higher.


The McLaren issues have been well-discussed, but I think Lotus also has lost its mojo. Due to financial issues. They were good in 2012-13, but largely due to operating like Greek economy. They were living over their means, taking loans and having debts. Finally they had to pay the price, lost lots of key personnel, starting with James Allison, and are now just your perennial underfunded midfield team like Force India.

Lotus can only move forward if they get new rich ownership, otherwise I don't see them better than F.India in their current disguise.

[Robinho]

FI look like the same choice now, their new car seems pretty decent, the merc donkey is the best. Lotus are OK, but not developing, probably still quick at the lower down force tracks. Sauber are going backwards and have no money, despite a good engine. McLaren will get better, but unlikely the Honda will improve enough in time, despite the car being decent, they need a leap rather than a step from the engine. Torro Rosso are the unknown for me, decent car, seem to be developing and Renault may improve enough to keep the fight going

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[rjbetty]

Looks like Force India may be able to grab 5th after all. I hope it happens. They've done very well over the years, which haven't necessarily been easy for them. I am impressed at how their two drivers have bagged pretty much every result possible. There's not much more you could have asked. They are both pretty underrated imo, especially Perez - though I think Sergio may enjoy a significant advantage due to his lower weight. If they carry on as they are, they will be very tough to beat to 5th.

Looks like we may have seen the best of both Lotus and Sauber for 2015, though I hear Sauber have updates for Spa.

Toro Rosso have a super chassis but their best chances may have passed as drivers are too inexperienced - the opposite of Force India I guess.

As for McLaren, it looks like they are just too far behind after all. Half the season gone and in truth they aren't on the pace of Sauber. I expect them to improve but think really they will only get amongst Sauber, Toro Rosso etc. Lets see what their last major update (Hungary or Spa) brings - I suspect nothing massive, which is what it will take to overhaul FI.

[jens]

Good post, rj.

Though I don't think we have seen the best of Lotus already. I mean form of teams go up-and-down. Lotus certainly has the car, which I believe in terms of innate speed can compete with Force India. They'll have good days. But they are inconsistent, and can't capitalize in the championship standings.

Force India's best result so far is P6, Lotus' is P7. I think Lotus is likely to finish in top 6 in some races as well. But as you mention, Force India's team and drivers are super-consistent, capitalize on opportunities, and frankly this is why they look strong to finish ahead. But Lotus can still give them a run for their money.

[rjbetty]

So after that crazy race, how is the fight for P5 in the WCC between these 5 teams going?

With 96pts, Red Bull look entirely clear in 4th now.

Currently:

5.Force India-Mercedes - 39pts
6.Lotus-Mercedes - 35pts
7.Toro Rosso-Renault - 31pts
8.Sauber-Ferrari - 22pts
9.McLaren-Honda - 17pts


Force India make themselves vulnerable, while 17pts for McLaren doesn't look quite as disastrous. Is their upgrade coming or what? Is it actually going to happen? I hope for Taz's sake they can grab a surprise podium somewhere. I mean, are we suddenly going to get an influx of new members signing up as soon as the season ends if it a podium doesn't happen?

Sauber are getting an upgrade at Spa too, and with the drivers more experienced than at season's start, this could be interesting.

[jens]

I think Hungary is sort of an exception for McLaren, Red Bull and also Toro Rosso. Just like Monaco was, or Singapore will be. On faster circuits, like also the upcoming Spa and Monza, Mercedes-powered Force India and Lotus should be ahead once again.

The talk about upgrades is often overrated. From what I can see, team performances have remained relatively static throughout the year, and only circuit characteristics have changed the game temporarily. I.e Red Bull was better than Williams at Monaco and Hungary, but well behind elsewhere.

Top marks to Alonso though - he delivered an excellent result in favourable circumstances. Same with Max V.

[rjbetty]

I've just been giving this some thought again. 5 teams for 5th is still an interesting battle.

Positions 1-4 and 10th look set now. But the others can go any way.

FORCE INDIA - MERCEDES: are looking very decent right now, if they don't suffer problems and throw away their hard work so far. Reliability and pretty good performance make them hard to beat. End of season points prediction: 65-75pts

LOTUS - MERCEDES: The poll showed Lotus as the favourite but I think they're running out of steam and Force India seem to have their measure. Lotus showed well in Canada, and could maybe whine [Edit: Typo, should be shine, but I want to keep it cos it was funny to read :P ] at low downforce Monza, and Spa. However, they would still have to beat Mercedes, Ferrari, Williams and Red Bull, not to mention others, so it's a big ask for a good result. I think they will do very well to simply match their first half score of 35pts. Prediction: around 55pts.

TORO ROSSO - RENAULT: A hard one to call. Look set to top their 2011 haul of 41pts. Rode the waves to grab 4th in Hungary, but a lot of points have been lost too - the performance has been there though. Still I find it hard to see them scoring much more than 20pts over the remainder of the year. Prediction: 50-55pts

MCLAREN - HONDA: Fortunate result last time out, but the tide looks to be turning and they should at the very least tack on to the back of the 4 teams in front of them from now on. Reliability must still be a concern, as will inevitable grid penalties, making it hard to make up the points already lost to the others. I can see them getting another semi-big result somewhere though, maybe in Singapore - a surprise podium for Alonso if things get a bit crazy (by modern standards)! Should easily have Saubers' measure though. Prediction: 45-50pts

SAUBER - FERRARI: Since the 14pt bonanza in Melbourne, Sauber have scraped just 8pts since. 8 more than last year, but I can't see them beating the others now, including McLaren. Prediction: around 30pts

[Firstgear]

So my vote, P5 goes to Lotus,...... ....thanks to Grosean's (eventual) podium points.

Hey - my prediction back in June for P5 just took a big step in the right direction. Lotus currently in 5th, ahead of Force India by 1 pt.

[jens]

Grosjean's P3 worked a treat for Lotus in Belgium, but their inconsistency problems striked again in Italy with both cars getting wiped out and Force India edging ahead once again with double points finish.

Another interesting battle is perhaps... yeah, Sauber v McLaren. Sauber gets an odd point here and there, so McLaren's best chance now is to score big in Singapore, just like they did in Hungary. It will be a crucial race in the battle for P8!