The Ultimate Drivers' Championship! (Simulation on Grand Prix 2)

[rjbetty]

Right then, after all these years I have decided to settle all this business about who the best drivers are once and for all.

For those of you familiar with my off-season previews using Grand Prix 2 too see how the season might turn out, I am going to run another season (seeing as I amazingly have some time off).

Here's the exciting part - All cars will be given exact equal performance in every way - so now this season will reveal the ultimate champion!!

Since I have to run 26 cars, we are inviting 6 drivers back from last year to fill the other (equal cars). Please welcome back Kamui Kobayashi, Kevin Magnussen, Esteban Gutierrez, Adrian Sutil, Jean-Eric Vergne and Max Chilton!

I have tried my very best to give accurate performance for both qualifying and race meaning some drivers will perform better in the race (cough Kimi) and others will tend to fall back (looking at you K-Mag.


This won't be perfect of course, since there is only ONE 15 minute qualifying session to decide the grid, so if you don't get a lap in, well that's just tough. So it's like real life.

All cars also have equal reliability.


I will post the results since I'm guessing at least maybe 2 people will be interested. :D

I should also say that as in real life, there are a lot of random factors in the game. Even if I give 2 drivers exact equal performance, one can still beat the other over the season due to random variations generated by the game. So please don't moan too much if the drivers you like don't do well, but please feel free to correct me - just don't be mean ok!


The interesting part is I haven't tested this yet, so I'm going in as blind as everyone else. I probably will get some drivers a little off but everything should be fairly close to real life.


With no further ado, here we go!

ROUND 1: AUSTRALIA
Starting Grid
1.Hamilton
2.Bottas +0.005
3.Ricciardo +0.039
4.Alonso +0.117
5.Hulkenberg +0.197
6.Rosberg +0.342
7.Magnussen +0.384
8.Kvyat +0.393
9.Grosjean +0.422
10.Vettel +0.497
11.Nasr +0.577
12.Vergne +0.577
13.Perez +0.579
14.Sainz +0.580
15.Button +0.619
16.Gutierrez +0.658
17.Verstappen +0.725
18.Chilton +0.728
19.Massa +0.729
20.Maldonado +0.731
21.Kobayashi +1.062
22.Sutil +1.106
23.Raikkonen +1.113
24.Stevens +1.830
25.Ericsson +2.255
26.Merhi +2.362


GO! Hamilton makes a bad start and Ricciardo and Bottas shoot into the lead. Bottas falls down the field quickly while Lewis finally passes Ricciardo on lap 9. Alonso is close behind with Rosberg a couple of seconds further back, then a bigger gap to Hulkenberg, Kvyat and Vettel. Raikkonen dropped to last but is up to 16th by lap 10.

By lap 20, pit stops have been made so the order is jumbled. Top 10 - Alonso, Ricciardo, Hulkenberg, Magnussen, Bottas, Hamilton, Raikkonen, Gutierrez, Sainz, Rosberg +28sec.

There seem to be quite large gaps opening up. It seems to be a real advantage to run at the front and not be stuck in traffic. By half distance suddenly 4 cars have retired - Sutil and Stevens, but also frontrunners Bottas and Ricciardo.

With 3/4 distance gone, I am very surprised at the large gaps, as some drivers have had problems. It seems lots of equal cars racing each other causes them to lose time.

All pit stops are made and with 10 laps to go, Hamilton leads Alonso by 5sec but Alonso is charging, quickest of all. Rosberg is quick too but down in 9th having struggled among other cars. Button and Massa stake their claims for points having been mired in the pack all race.

Hulkenberg crashes out in the pitlane having run strongly.

Alonso fails to get past and Hamilton claims a narrow win!

Result
1.Hamilton
2.Alonso +0
3.Magnussen +40
4.Grosjean +44
5.Raikkonen +46
6.Kvyat +47
7.Rosberg +51
8.Vettel +56
9.Perez +58
10.Sainz +59
11.Gutierrez +1:02
12.Button +1:07
13.Verstappen +1:07
14.Massa +1:09
15.Vergne +1:16
16.Chilton +1:21
17.Maldonado +1:29
18.Nasr +1:31
19.Kobayashi +1:32
20.Ericsson -1lap
21.Merhi -1lap
R.Hulkenberg ACCIDENT
R.Ricciardo ACCIDENT
R.Stevens ACCIDENT
R.Bottas WATER LEAK
R.Sutil ENGINE

Fastest Laps top 3: Alonso, Vergne, Ricciardo

[rjbetty]

ROUND 2: MALAYSIA
Starting Grid
1.Ricciardo
2.Bottas +0.101
3.Button +0.109
4.Grosjean +0.302
5.Hulkenberg +0.442
6.Kvyat +0.480
7.Vettel +0.489
8.Hamilton +0.526
9.Alonso +0.603
10.Rosberg +0.639
11.Gutierrez +0.647
12.Massa +0.678
13.Sutil +0.716
14.Sainz +0.828
15.Magnussen +0.836
16.Perez +0.942
17.Raikkonen +0.943
18.Chilton +1.013
19.Maldonado +1.049
20.Verstappen +1.051
21.Vergne +1.055
22.Kobayashi +1.251
23.Nasr +1.752
24.Merhi +2.024
25.Ericsson +2.235
26.Stevens +2.361


Right then, Bottas and Grosjean shoot into the lead, while chaos at the back as naughty Nasr hits Raikkonen, lifting up in the air and breaking his wing. What's more Rosberg and Vettel are off at turn 1. Turns out Gutierrez impressed again, making a cracking start into 5th before flying off at turn 1. All 3 are down the back while Nasr also pits.

Ricciardo makes a mistake on the penultimate lap, losing 9sec and throwing away the win!

Result
1.Bottas
2.Ricciardo +6
3.Hamilton +15
4.Grosjean +17
5.Kvyat +20
6.Alonso +25
7.Hulkenberg +30
8.Raikkonen 34+
9.Massa +40
10.Vettel +43
11.Button +45
12.Sutil +51
13.Perez +52
14.Sainz +53
15.Magnussen +1:01
16.Vergne +1:03
17.Rosberg +1:06
18.Gutierrez +1:09
19.Kobayashi +1:14
20.Verstappen +1:17
21.Maldonado +1:19
22.Chilton +1:33
23.Merhi +1:41
24.Ericsson -1lap
25.Stevens -1lap
26.Nasr -1lap

Fastedt Laps: Button, Bottas, Grosjean

[rjbetty]

ROUND 3: CHINA
Starting Grid
1.Hamilton
2.Ricciardo +0.041
3.Vettel +0.076
4.Bottas +0.199
5.Button +0.276
6.Alonso +0.353
7.Hulkenberg +0.392
8.Vergne +0.392
9.Kobayashi +0.431
10.Rosberg +0.511
11.Grosjean +0.543
12.Magnussen +0.585
13.Raikkonen +0.710
14.Massa +0.711
15.Perez +0.743
16.Kvyat +0.745
17.Chilton +0.822
18.Maldonado +0.856
19.Ericsson +0.982
20.Sutil +1.019
21.Stevens +1.022
22.Gutierrez +1.066
23.Verstappen +1.137
24.Sainz +1.178
25.Merhi +1.298
26.Nasr +1.333

It looks like a great scrap for the win between Ricciardo and Vettel, who looks slightly faster, until on lap 35, unbelievably, both retire! In the final stages, Button is flying but runs out of laps and has to settle for 3rd, meaning Hamilton wins again. Kimi had problems all race.

1.Hamilton
2.Bottas +1
3.Button +2
4.Alonso +8
5.Vergne +17
6.Rosberg +28
7.Hulkenberg +30
8.Perez +41
9.Kobayashi +45
10.Massa +47
11.Magnussen +50
12.Grosjean +50
13.Kvyat +1:08
14.Ericsson +1:18
15.Sutil +1:19
16.Verstappen +1:22
17.Chilton +1:22
18.Stevens +1:28
19.Gutierrez +1:29
20.Maldonado +1:30
21.Raikkonen +1:30
22.Merhi -1lap
23.Sainz -1lap
R.Nasr ELECTRICAL
R.Vettel ENGINE
R.Ricciardo ACCIDENT

Fastest Laps: Ricciardo, Hamilton, Bottas




ROUND 4: BAHRAIN
Starting Grid
1.Grosjean
2.Maldonado +0.078
3.Massa +0.079
4.Hamilton +0.119
5.Bottas +0.119
6.Button +0.159
7.Alonso +0.193
8.Perez +0.196
9.Magnussen +0.200
10.Vettel +0.237
11.Rosberg +0.243
12.Hulkenberg +0.349
13.Kvyat +0.404
14.Raikkonen +0.466
15.Gutierrez +0.479
16.Ricciardo +0.514
17.Sainz +0.553
18.Verstappen +0.631
19.Kobayashi +0.822
20.Sutil +0.872
21.Stevens +0.977
22.Merhi +1.255
23.Nasr +1.256
24.Vergne +1.297
25.Ericsson +1.532
26.Chilton +1.929

Hamilton goes off mid race dropping to 18th!

Result
1.Grosjean
2.Vettel +13
3.Button +18
4.Bottas +28
5.Maldonado +30
6.Raikkonen +35
7.Kvyat +39
8.Hamilton +41
9.Rosberg +41
10.Hulkenberg +42
11.Magnussen +56
12.Sainz +59
13.Perez +1:01
14.Vergne +1:06
15.Kobayashi +1:19
16.Sutil +1:20
17.Nasr +1:35
18.Stevens +1:40
19.Ericsson -1lap
20.Chilton -1lap
21.Ricciardo -5laps
R.Gutierrez ACCIDENT
R.Alonso TRANSMISSION
R.Merhi TRANSMISSION
R.Massa ACCIDENT
R.Verstappen ACCIDENT

Fastest Laps: Hamilton, Perez, Alonso




1/4 Season Overview
Hmmm I do think I made Hamilton too strong, as though I think he's the best qualifier out there, shortly ahead of Vettel, Rosberg, Ricciardo and Alonso, I don't think he would be invincible in races. We'll see how the rest of the season goes. Kvyat looks too strong too.

Standings so far
1.Hamilton 69pts - 1,3,1,8
2.Bottas 55pts - R,1,2,4
3.Grosjean 49pts - 4,4,12,1
4.Alonso 38pts - 2,6,4,R
5.Button 30pts - 12,11,3,3
6.Kvyat 24pts - 6,5,13,7
7.Vettel 23pts - 8,10,R,2
8.Raikkonen 22pts - 5,8,21,6
9.Ricciardo 18pts - R,2,R,21
10.Rosberg 16pts - 7,17,6,9
11.Magnussen 15pts - 3,15,11,11
12.Hulkenberg 13pts - R,7,7,10
13.Vergne 10pts - 15,16,5,14
14.Maldonado 10pts - 17,21,20,5
15.Perez 6pts - 9,13,8,13
16.Massa 3pts - 14,9,10,R
17.Kobayashi 2pts - 19,19,9,15
18.Sainz 1pt - 10,14,23,12

19.Gutierrez - 11,18,19,R
20.Sutil - R,12,15,16
21.Verstappen - 13,20,16,R
22.Ericsson - 20,24,14,19
23.Chilton - 16,22,17,20
24.Nasr - 18,26,R,17
25.Stevens - R,25,18,18
26.Merhi - 21,23,22,R

[Tazio]

I was thinking Slash would fair a little better....mate. :dozey:

[jens]

Having played racing games in the past, I remember, how random the results can at times be. Ricciardo has been horrendously unlucky, though it seems he has the pace to compete at the top. Some close competition for sure, especially looking at Q gaps.

But so far - Grosjean is certainly raising some eyebrows. And the advantage Bottas has over Massa is huge, considering in real life team-mate battle they are quite close together.

Also I am unsure about the notion that some of the backmarkers lap 2 seconds per lap slower. I think they are not THAT slow! About 20 drivers are nicely within 1 second and then a couple of drivers, who are well behind. I believe we don't have drivers quite at Yoong, Ide or Deletraz level in F1 currently.

This is not criticism, rj, just an observation.:D

[rjbetty]

Hi Jens it's ok! Thanks for the input.

Well actually I think in individual races, someone like Stevens or Merhi could sometimes be about 2sec off the pace off the best drivers, but then another time be just a few tenths off, so it evens out pretty well over the season.

Also, qualifying is only 1 x15 minute mad rush so often drivers don't get representative times. I quite like this as it reminds me of the old F3000 days (1998-2000). It also simulates real life stuff like knockouts, grid penalties, problems etc that don't happen in the game.

I don't know if I should have gone for a purer approach, since being in the pack definitely compromises driver's races.

I have noticed that strangely, Grand Prix 2 doesn't seem to like Massa very much. Do you remember the first time I did this in the 2014 pre-season. Bottas was a fixture in the top 10, scored over 50pts with 2 podiums - while Massa was like Bruno Senna, only qualifying in the top 10 once - and yet I had put Bottas only 2 or 3 hundreths ahead!

It happened again this year despite the drivers now being in different driver slots (slots 5 and 6 having been 3rd in the WCC instead of slots 17 and 18 for 9th in 2013). I again had them close but Massa didn't get a podium I think. The game doesn't seem to like him much.

It's working the other way round for Grosjean though.

Also, I have used drivers 2015 performance rather than what I feel their true general performance is. This might be a mistake as it means Rosberg and Alonso are a little slower (Alonso slightly trails Jenson in real life qualifying since he has had a disrupted start and is settling into a new team).

This is because I didn't do a quick test run first, so I am learning how to improve as I go along.

As for Sutil, don't worry Taz he does better as the season goes on. :)

[EddySan]

GP2 wow!!....my first online championships were with that game
A lot of hours behind the wheel and a lot of fun...and at the same time I feel curious about your 'experiment' :) to see how it goes

[jens]

Fair enough, rj. I wonder, which computer, windows (or something else!) or patches you have though that this game still runs. I can't get old games running in new Windows any more.:D

It has been a while now, but I used to play Grand Prix 3 a lot. In the 2000s. It had an editor, so I used to edit the competition (drivers, teams) performance a lot. And it certainly is food for thought to try to find the right balance. I attempted to create a "realistic competition fields" across many different seasons and eras.

I remember I gave Stefano Modena third best driver performance value (after Senna and Prost) for the 1991 season.:D As we remember, he was on the front row at Monaco (drivers' circuit!) in the Tyrrell and was quite a few times a feature near the front of the field. So I felt he really punched above his weight there. But it is now almost a decade since I played that season. How time flies!

[rjbetty]

Hi everyone,

Sorry the season has been cancelled since me screen's broke.
I can only see a small corner along the top so it's hard typing this. :(

@Jens I use D-Fend Reloaded to play GP2! It looks a handful but I never use most functions. You just add the program you want, select GP2, then it appears on the list, then you just run it from there. :)

@Taz You'll be glad to know Sutil finished 2nd at a slightly crazy Spa, and ran well at Monza and India too.


I think I will start the season again when I get me comp working. I want to make some adjustments. Vettel had a shocker of a season, every time he was in the lead something happened or he dropped it! Grosjean crashed out of the final few races to end his outside challenge. Jenson came on really well but Alonso was quite scrappy. I think I didn't make his race pace good enough. Vettel's qualifying should be a little quicker too, but it just worked out badly for him as it sometimes does on this game. Massa shone a few times while Bottas faded a bit. Ricciardo had some bad qualifyings with problems, causing his season to wobble.

After a quiet season, Rosberg had his day in the sun in Hungary and thereafter quietly climbed the standings. He still came only 6th in the end. This is because I was going on 2015 performance so far, so he can do a bit better.

Hulkenberg had 2 poles while Perez managed to win 2 races with his smooth race ability!!

Will Stevens shocked the world by qualifying 9th at Monza, then in a (too crazy, will tone it down) race ended up 5th fending off Kimi! He never looked near the points again.

Gutierrez got the luck of the draw in Monaco to qualify 5th in the lottery (just like the old F3000 days). Even more shocking, his strategy meant he ended up leading, holding off a rtrain of faster drivers, though he ended up a lap down for some reason, so something happened somewhere. His season then returned to mediocrity (he started his season well) but he did grab an 8th somewhere (India?).

Also, Kvyat started the year very well, in top 6 of standings early on, but he didn't score any points at all for many races until near the end!

Everyone scored points except Max Chilton and Roberto Merhi.

[jens]

So, rj. If Rosberg was 6th in the end, what did the top 5 look like? :D

[Mekola]

I wonder how do you calculate drivers performances at qualy, races, and random variations. Do you use the same data for all season or do you update them using the stats of this season races?

[rjbetty]

Well it's just a guess really. There are no exact calculations for variations.

But I kinda go like, say last year, Valtteri Bottasabout 0.94sec off Rosberg on average, since Rosberg had the best average. The

Then I consider that on his best day, Bottas did get or would have got about 0.2 off pole. Then that's a variation of about 7tenths.

I also consider their worst qualifying the same way, not including quals with major issues for the driver.

It's not the most exact way but it's the best I got and turns out fasirly accurate mostly.


@Jens well the final round came between Hamilton and Jenson ! Jenson only qualified 17th or 19th though and was 10pts behind Hamilton.

As I remember he either retired or had problems and finished well down, like 17th, so Hamilton took the title. This shouldn't be too much of a surprise since he would always be right up there in real life, though I may not have factored in that I think he's still a little less than rock solid sometimes in actually making the results happen. Like I said, this was my test run!

So in the end Grosjean had just enough points to pip Alonso for 3rd, despite his season ending with a few no scores.

I can't remember who was 5th but I think Rosberg got up to 6th in the end after a so-so first half of the season. He tends to not sparkle when I the pack, and remember I was going on 2015 form, where you could say Rosberg maybe doesn't look as strong as last season.

Vettel finally won the last race to vault up but the damage was done. He would have been right there without problems. I also should have made Kimi's race pace much better, as in real life he seems pretty much equal to Seb there. Also Alonso's race pace should have been hiighyer as though his qualifying's been a bit meh compared too Button, I seem to notice he goes much stronger in races.

Kobayashi also got 2 podiums, in Monaco and Spa, while Vergne was on pole at Monza!



P.SP I think it was Ricciardo in 5th and Bottas 7th, I'm quite sure. RIC had some poor luck as you said, otherwise he looked very strong, while Bottas faded slightly after his fgood start. I think I gave Grosjean too much race pace, even a tiny bit too much in quali too.

I think Perez and Hulekenberg were 8th and 9th and maybe even Vergne got 10th or 11th. I can't remember. So as it turned out Kimi and Vettel didn't get the rub of the green, but I will run this again sometime and see what I can do.



Also, apologies for bad typing. I only have a tiny bit of screen left and can't see all the words. I a;sio have to zoom right down to tiny letters to read stuff.

[rjbetty]

I will get my new screen on Tuesday. It sure had better be the right one. Everything I looked up tells me it's an LED one I needed. Well I've paid for it now so that's that.

I will run a more complete simulation as soon as I get a chance.

If I give the performance figures up front, see how much you agree with them. Now's your chance to moan before the season goes ahead! :p

Qualifying - based on 2015
1.Hamilton
2.Vettel +0.10
3.Ricciardo +0.10
4.Rosberg +0.14
5.Alonso +0.16
6.Grosjean +0.19
7.Bottas +0.20
8.Button +0.21
9.Hulkenberg +0.25
10.Massa +0.30
11.Perez +0.30
12.Raikkonen +0.39
13.Kvyat +0.41
14.Maldonado +0.43
15.Sainz +0.79
16.Verstappen +0.89
17.Nasr +0.94
18.Ericsson +1.24
19.Stevens +1.48
20.Merhi +1.64

RACE
1.Alonso
2.Hamilton +0.04
3.Vettel +0.06
4.Raikkonen +0.12
5.Button +0.13
6.Ricciardo +0.15
7.Rosberg +0.22
8.Bottas +0.24
9.Perez +0.26
10.Grosjean +0.30
10.Hulkenberg +0.30
12.Massa +0.38
13.Kvyat +0.41
14.Maldonado +0.70
15.Verstappen +0.82
16.Sainz +0.84
17.Nasr +1.00
18.Ericsson +1.23
19.Stevens +1.56
20.Merhi +1.64

[jens]

If I give the performance figures up front, see how much you agree with them. Now's your chance to moan before the season goes ahead! :p


Ok, but instead of moaning I think maybe I should post my own figures... Or try to figure out my own figures (pun-intended).

For starters Kvyat and Sainz IMO are better qualifiers than that. I'd put them ahead of Raikkonen and Perez, for example.

The race pace different between Grosjean and Maldonado is too big there. In Qualis Gro is ahead, but in races they often run together. The difference is that Maldo makes mistakes and drops behind. How do you factor that in? Because in terms of outright pace he is fine.

Stevens and Merhi a tad better, right under the rear wing of Ericsson.

Verstappen's race pace to be better. He has repeteadly run in 7th and 8th positions. This also means Sainz would be better than currently shown.

OK mate... I am now really nitpicking here. Maybe I should really just think of my own figures then.:D