Silly Season speculation

[keysersoze]

Eight races down--surely it's not too early to guess who may be on the move.

Let's not put too much stock in contracts, shall we? We know how useful they really are when the team wants someone else in the cockpit.

Except for Maldonado, the drivers are doing a good job. Kimi has been under some scrutiny as well, but when the car issues are sorted out, he will be on the pace.

Will Williams be looking to upgrade their drivers? Alonso and Vettel must both be casting some longing eyes that direction. Of course, the team is not known to throw money at drivers, but Alonso can bring a big sponsor or two.

I like Checko a lot, but Nico has been both quick and reliable (even though he lost places on the last lap in two consecutive races). Can a better team lure him away? And would he necessarily want to be with another team?

Sauber can't be happy with their driver pairing, especially after having Sergio and Nico, both of whom got special results for the team.

Has Jules done enough to leave Marussia? Max is improving, so JB better leave before Chilton gets too close too his pace.

If STR sticks to form, Vergne needs to shop around. Drivers don't stay at the junior team for four seasons. He's been better in qualifying, but his race results have been lacking.

Mercedes will want to keep both drivers, but will the loser want to stay? Still time left for a major intra-team meltdown.

Who on the sidelines will get a chance (or 2nd chance)? Frijns? Pic? Di Resta?

Who from GP2 may move up? Palmer? Cecotto? Coletti? Nasr?

[Hawkmoon]

I wouldn't be surprised if we saw wholesale change at the back. With the possible exception of Bianchi, none of the Sauber, Caterham, Marussia or Lotus drivers have done anything significant this year. Unless they are bringing a lot of sponsorship (like Maldonado) they have to be on thin ice. Even Grosjean has been ordinary this year (in an admittedly woeful car).

At the front I think there will be little or no change. Mercedes are rock-solid unless the Rosberg-Hamilton relationship goes toxic like McLaren in 2007. Red Bull are happy with their two and unless one of the big guns becomes available I can't see Williams making a change. Force India must be reasonably happy with their guys as well. Kyvat is safe at STR but JEV looks a little shaky.

Ferrari won't want to let Alonso go and he's under contract until 2016 so he's not going anywhere unless he's really unhappy (which is an increasingly likely situation if Ferrari keep giving him average cars). Raikkonen could be on thin ice if he doesn't pickup his game. Ferrari brought him in because they weren't happy with the disparity between the points scoring efforts of each side of the garage. Unfortunately 2014 is just as bad as 2010-2013. It will probably take someone like Vettel wriggling free of his contract somehow to entice Ferrai to dump the Finn (again).

[pob]

Based on Toro Rosso's history, I don't expect JEV to last the season. I predict Sainz jr to replace him with JEV being relegated to the Red Bull test/show team unless he can find a drive elsewhere (a shame as he was considered a future champ not that long ago, so maybe JEV and Ricciardo are special and it just wasn't obvious when they faced each other in the same team).

[zako85]

My sources indicate that hiring Maldonado was a stopgap solution until Lotus could find new partners in order to secure a long-term contract with Jacques Villeneuve. Fingers crossed.

[Bagwan]

My sources indicate that hiring Maldonado was a stopgap solution until Lotus could find new partners in order to secure a long-term contract with Jacques Villeneuve. Fingers crossed.

That was just a ploy , as JV is set to take Kimi's seat at Ferrari .

[jens]

Some general thoughts.

Big players - for a long time it has been discussed, when will Vettel change teams. Hamilton did in 2012, Alonso and Räikkönen done multiple occasions. But now it is crunch period of Vettel. RBR is not the team to beat in the new regs era; Newey is rumoured to move away from F1 activities, etc. It is the right time for Vettel to look for alternatives to jump away from Red Bull before they are firmly in midfield - like Hamilton left McLaren before McLaren was firmly in midfield. Sometimes you have to react and make moves in anticipation, trust the gut feeling of what does the long-term bring before you have already dropped back with a sinking ship. But where? Mercedes is closed and Ferrari, McLaren are all very much a gamble at this stage. But you often need to take a gamble and hope it works out.

Contenders for big seats.
Last year Ricciardo moved into a top team. Who are the drivers looking to move up now?

One is Grosjean, who is doing well in a rubbish car. He could compete for instance for the McLaren seat, but there seems to be a long list of drivers trying to get in there. Kvyat has been impressive, but I think he has to wait till potentially Vettel has left RBR. Bianchi - he seems to have ability to be at least a solid midfielder, but can he find a place? oes he have budget to make a move? Hülkenberg has long been knocking on the door of top teams, but right now he is in a good place and there doesn't seem to be an opening to even a better team.

Going out - Maldonado, Chilton, Ericsson, Gutierrez, possibly Sutil all depend on the budget they bring. If the money dries out, they'll be out for sure. Vergne's days could be numbered too.

Coming in - possibly Vandoorne and/or Sainz Jr. Other than that - paydrivers.

[journeyman racer]

My sources indicate that hiring Maldonado was a stopgap solution until Lotus could find new partners in order to secure a long-term contract with Jacques Villeneuve. Fingers crossed.
What???

[jens]

Based on latest...

It looks like Alonso it torn between Ferrari and McLaren. If Alonso stays in Ferrari, I expect the majority of teams to remain the same (Mercedes, Red Bull, Ferrari, Williams, McLaren, Force India, probably Lotus too). However, if he joins McLaren, the implications could be interesting in several teams. But first let's wait for the news and Alonso's ultimate decision.

[airshifter]

Just the fact that Alonso has mentioned other possibilities is very telling, as that is not his style. I really wouldn't blame him if he moved on from Ferrari, as he has tolerated an absolute pig of a car since being there. He might have the same thing at McLaren, but chances are the $$$ payoff for driving a pig with a Honda engine would be greater.

[anfield5]

2015.

Mercedes - No changes other than the number 1 on one of their cars

Red Bull - No changes Vett is a 4 time champion and Ricci is a future 4 time champion

Ferrari - Alonso to give it one more season for the team to get their sh1t together and produce a decent car
Raikonnen to be replace with either Jules Bianchi or Roman Grosjean

Williams - No changes, both drivers are already confirmed

Force India - No changes, both Hulk and Perez are doing well enough (unless Ferrari go with Nico), then JEV

McLaren - Difficult call. One final season for JB before Alonso arrives from Ferrari
Mag has done well enough for a rookie in a difficult car.

Sauber (if they are on the grid) Sutil to stay
Gutierez - to be replaced by a big bag of money (or JEV)

Torro Rosso - Drivers already confirmed

The Black Team formerly known as Renault - Maldonado is confirmed
- JEV in the other car unless some rich kid shows up

Caterham (if at all) - Two rich kids from GP2 or GP3 or ????

Marussia - Rossi
- Some rich Russian

[DonJippo]

2015.

Red Bull - No changes Vett is a 4 time champion and Ricci is a future 4 time champion

Ferrari - Alonso to give it one more season for the team to get their sh1t together and produce a decent car
Raikonnen to be replace with either Jules Bianchi or Roman Grosjean

McLaren - Difficult call. One final season for JB before Alonso arrives from Ferrari
Mag has done well enough for a rookie in a difficult car.



Alonso to McLaren and Vettel to Ferrari.

[The Black Knight]

Alonso to McLaren and Vettel to Ferrari.

Yup, it is looking more and more like as if Alonso will actually move back to McLaren next year. That was something we never expected but I guess time heals all wounds. I think it would be good for both him and McLaren as Ferrari won't win a championship for another few years and the best driver on the grids career is in it's twilight.

[Firstgear]

Alonso to McLaren and Vettel to Ferrari.If this is true, and the deal was done a while ago already - it could explain why Vettel has been having more problems adapting to the car & car failures this year.

[donKey jote]

Yes, and also why Kimi seems to be almost catching up recently ;) :dozey: :p

[Firstgear]

I think we all knew that Kimi was going to turf Alonso from Ferrari. :)

[N. Jones]

I think Alonso is going to bring Lord Hesketh back to the pitlane.

There! Showed you all how to make a pre-diction areound here! :D :P

[steveaki13]

So with the latest news, what do we think?

My guess is not including teams folding and 3rd cars or any such occurrence

Mercedes: Lewis Hamilton & Nico Rosberg

Red Bull: Daniel Ricciardo & Danii Kyvat

Williams: Valterri Bottas & Felipe Massa

Ferrari: Kimi Raikkonen & Sebastian Vettel

Mclaren: Fernando Alonso & Kevin Magnussen

Force India: Nico Hulkenberg & Sergio Perez?

Toro Rosso: Max Verstappen & Carlos Sainz Jr?

Lotus: Pastor Maldonado & Jules Bianchi (not likely but I would like to see this)

Marussia: ? & ?

Sauber: ? & ?

Caterham: ? & ?

That leaves Grosjean, Sutil, Button, Kobayashi of the more reputable drivers with no seat for 2015. Would Grosjean stay at Lotus? Would Button take one final year in a low car for fun?

Are some of these teams going to even be on the grid in 2015.

What about Romania's Forza Rossa Team?

[jens]

Steve, your proposals make sense. But I don't think Lotus would sideline Grosjean for Bianchi. Bianchi may have looked decent in Marussia, but I don't consider him better than Grosjean, who is a good driver in itself.

Sauber, Marussia and Caterham seats will be dependant on paydrivers. And I am unsure Caterham actually survives till next year...

I don't see Button as the kind of driver, who would stay in a rubbish car just for the sake of it. Even Barrichello, who back in the day was determined to prolong his F1 career, was in Williams, which was financially better off than current Sauber or Lotus. Those teams can barely even pay Button anything! Remember, Räikkönen didn't get paid by Lotus.

Maybe if Sauber or Lotus gets some new big investor, who has a proper vision, is prepared to spend lots of money and hire drivers, Button could be interested in the project. But in an almost bankrupt team, no.
He may try to knock on Force India's door though.

[steveaki13]

It thought some seem to think Grosjean might want to leave Lotus though, by what I have seen and heard

[jens]

It thought some seem to think Grosjean might want to leave Lotus though, by what I have seen and heard

I am sure Grosjean would like to sit in a better car, but it looks like there are no better options for him. So he has no other option than to sit in Lotus to prolong his F1 career. And I don't think he is already looking for a career outside F1. He is less than 30 years old and I think still believes that one day his great opportunity in F1 may arise even if he has to endure some tough years, like Button had 2007-2008.

[jens]

Sadly Bianchi at anywhere is now out of the window though rumours suggested that he had a good shot at the Sauber seat. But no more. Sigh.:(

But we are likely to get some confirmations pretty soon. It can't be far away any more. So Vettel in Ferrari, Alonso most likely in McLaren. But then who will be the second McLaren driver? I am still unsure, how would this unfold... It seems harsh to send away Button, who at the age of 34 is still performing rather well, as well as Magnussen, who has had only a single season and it would be good to see more of him.

[anfield5]

2015.

Mercedes - No changes other than the number 1 on one of their cars

Red Bull - No changes Vett is a 4 time champion and Ricci is a future 4 time champion

Ferrari - Alonso to give it one more season for the team to get their sh1t together and produce a decent car
Raikonnen to be replace with either Jules Bianchi or Roman Grosjean

Williams - No changes, both drivers are already confirmed

Force India - No changes, both Hulk and Perez are doing well enough (unless Ferrari go with Nico), then JEV

McLaren - Difficult call. One final season for JB before Alonso arrives from Ferrari
Mag has done well enough for a rookie in a difficult car.

Sauber (if they are on the grid) Sutil to stay
Gutierez - to be replaced by a big bag of money (or JEV)

Torro Rosso - Drivers already confirmed

The Black Team formerly known as Renault - Maldonado is confirmed
- JEV in the other car unless some rich kid shows up

Caterham (if at all) - Two rich kids from GP2 or GP3 or ????

Marussia - Rossi
- Some rich Russian

ermm... once again I have proved myself quite useless at predicting anything at all

[anfield5]

Sadly Bianchi at anywhere is now out of the window though rumours suggested that he had a good shot at the Sauber seat. But no more. Sigh.:(

But we are likely to get some confirmations pretty soon. It can't be far away any more. So Vettel in Ferrari, Alonso most likely in McLaren. But then who will be the second McLaren driver? I am still unsure, how would this unfold... It seems harsh to send away Button, who at the age of 34 is still performing rather well, as well as Magnussen, who has had only a single season and it would be good to see more of him.

Mag can't even be stood down from the race team as third driver for a year, with the expectation of him having button's seat in 2016, because they already have Stoffel vanDorne looking good for that role.

[anfield5]

At McLaren

If they rate vanDoorne as a future star, I can see them Racing next year with Alonso and Button. With a new team (Honda) they might want Buttond experience and knowledge, not to mention his ability to get to the finish, ahead of Magnusson's potential. This would leave Mag out in the cold and looking for another seat.

If McLaren rate vanDoorne as not ready for F1. I could see McLaren retiring Button and having Alonso paired with Mag. wirh vanDoorne having a second year in GP2, before third driver duties in16 and a race seat in 17

If Alonso wants a Merc engine he could go to Toleman in place of Grosjean.

[Bagwan]

Seb and Zo will be at Haas with a red engine .

[Tazio]

Seb and Zo will be at Haas with a red engine .

Baggy you're wack, but everyone knows that! ;) However their is, and always has been a method to your madness, and I do think that G. Hass will get a driver of pretty high status in his assault for F1 glory. If it was Fred I'd lose my mind (what little I have left), :p: but I'm afraid it will be more like Felipe Baggie or Checo!

[Bagwan]

Baggy you're wack, but everyone knows that! ;) However their is, and always has been a method to your madness, and I do think that G. Hass will get a driver of pretty high status in his assault for F1 glory. If it was Fred I'd lose my mind (what little I have left), :p: but I'm afraid it will be more like Felipe Baggie or Checo!

Hey , Tazmo , Zo said no Merc , and Seb said you'll understand why he can't say .
It's too big .

Wacky days ahead have a Green team closing , but how good would it be to have a "B" team as a test hog to the big US entry ?
Think big , Tazzy Bear , think big as Texas , where it would be a good place for an announcement , if you thought you might want to make a splash .

[Tazio]

Think big , Tazzy Bear , think big as Texas , where it would be a good place for an announcement , if you thought you might want to make a splash . The pacific ocean maybe at "Mavericks" on the Ca. coast? Big waves there bro!!

[Roamy]

flavio is buying Renault - Alonso will follow
Link :
http://www.canadapharmacy24h.com/catalog/Erectile_Dysfunction/Viagra.htm

[Malbec]

But we are likely to get some confirmations pretty soon. It can't be far away any more. So Vettel in Ferrari, Alonso most likely in McLaren. But then who will be the second McLaren driver? I am still unsure, how would this unfold... It seems harsh to send away Button, who at the age of 34 is still performing rather well, as well as Magnussen, who has had only a single season and it would be good to see more of him.

Its interesting isn't it. Most likely the second driver will be decided following the resolution of power struggles at McLaren. If Dennis gets his way its probably Fernando and Button as he tries to get the two best drivers available and lets other teams train up youngsters. The problem is that Dennis hasn't fulfilled his promises of getting someone to fund his buyout of the Bahraini investors that bought their way into the team so may not be around to make that driver decision. If Honda gets their way Button may well end up being dropped as they don't rate him that highly but that depends on how Magnussen is rated within the team, whether he is seen as being able to outperform Jenson in his second F1 season consistently.

Of course that assumes Alonso wants to join McLaren and I'm not convinced he does. McLaren won't sign him on for one season only, they will want a long term contract with him and this will not be what Alonso wants as he angles for a top drive. There is no guarantee that McLaren will hit the front again with Honda. RBR have made clear they recruit internally. Mercedes have two drivers who despite some squabbles are delivering what they want and who will have no reason to leave the team that will most likely be the fastest for a couple of seasons more unless Renault do something amazing for RBR. Williams is a possible option if they could afford him though but again with their limited resources they would be a gamble too but perhaps more amenable to a one-season only contract assuming Massa's contract with them can be gotten out of...

[AndyL]

Its interesting isn't it. Most likely the second driver will be decided following the resolution of power struggles at McLaren. If Dennis gets his way its probably Fernando and Button as he tries to get the two best drivers available and lets other teams train up youngsters. The problem is that Dennis hasn't fulfilled his promises of getting someone to fund his buyout of the Bahraini investors that bought their way into the team so may not be around to make that driver decision. If Honda gets their way Button may well end up being dropped as they don't rate him that highly but that depends on how Magnussen is rated within the team, whether he is seen as being able to outperform Jenson in his second F1 season consistently.

Interesting, your assessment of where Button's support lies is the opposite of what I would have thought. Ron Dennis has said some unfavourable things about him recently, giving the impression that Button doesn't have Ron's backing. While I'd expect Honda to be more keen on him given that he reputedly has a positive profile in Japan, was employed by Honda or a Honda backed team for many years previously, and is the only guy to have won a the championship in a car developed by them.

[Malbec]

Interesting, your assessment of where Button's support lies is the opposite of what I would have thought. Ron Dennis has said some unfavourable things about him recently, giving the impression that Button doesn't have Ron's backing. While I'd expect Honda to be more keen on him given that he reputedly has a positive profile in Japan, was employed by Honda or a Honda backed team for many years previously, and is the only guy to have won a the championship in a car developed by them.

I don't know whether Dennis personally rates Button or not, I am just assuming that Button would be the best available driver to partner Alonso given the top drivers are all contracted elsewhere, and Dennis seems to care only about having the best two drivers he can get his hands on.

From what I understand Button does really like Japan but the reverse is not true. F1 is a minority interest sport in Japan and Button hasn't been marketed there with as much vigour as, say, Alonso or Hamilton so there is little public awareness of who he is. The same is apparently true of the Japanese drivers like Sato and Kobayashi who aren't/weren't marketable, certainly not compared to football players.

As for Honda's attitude towards Button I believe they feel he was the best driver they could get their hands on at the time when they weren't a top performing team in the 2000's and doesn't rate as highly as someone like Alonso. When Alonso consistently finishes badly you know that the car is at fault, not the driver. You can't always say the same for Button. Also I believe that his attempted escape to Williams hasn't been forgotten nor forgiven....

[jens]

My personal interpretation is that if there was any preference, then Dennis -> Magnussen, Honda -> Button.

Magnussen is McLaren's junior driver and Ron Dennis' personal project, much like Hamilton was. Arguably last year it was Ron Dennis, who pushed for Magnussen to replace Pérez. I think it could be hard for him to drop his investment now, while I believe the in-coming Honda doesn't care that much.

On the flipside when Ron Dennis was McLaren's team principal, he never hired Button nor even considered him from what I can recall. Silly season rumours were always linked with other drivers having a shot at McLaren seats. Button was hired for 2010 only, when Dennis wasn't TP any more...

Honda wants publicity more and two WDC's in the same team could bring them quite a lot of attention. They have been pretty desperate to push Dennis to hire top drivers, so that even the former "enemy" Alonso is about to join McLaren. Vettel was also under consideration. Button, as the other two, is also a WDC, and might be some interest to Honda. In addition to their former co-operation.

[steveaki13]

Sounds like Button is not going to just driver for Caterham for the sake of it.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/29660644

[Tazio]

Hey , Tazmo , Zo said no Merc , and Seb said you'll understand why he can't say .
It's too big .

Wacky days ahead have a Green team closing , but how good would it be to have a "B" team as a test hog to the big US entry ?
Think big , Tazzy Bear , think big as Texas , where it would be a good place for an announcement , if you thought you might want to make a splash .
Ok Baggie you've sucked me in. At the U.S. Grand Prix, Fred will announce he will drive for Haas in 2016. His partner will be decided in testing between Montoya, and Jacques, with the loser getting the test seat! :crazy: :p:

[airshifter]

Ok Baggie you've sucked me in. At the U.S. Grand Prix, Fred will announce he will drive for Haas in 2016. His partner will be decided in testing between Montoya, and Jacques, with the loser getting the test seat! :crazy: :p:

Alonso to Haas wouldn't be all that crazy. The Ferrari engine is already stronger than the Renault, and Haas has a better chance at getting the chassis right than Ferrari probably do.

As for Montoya and Jacques, probably about the same chance as Danica getting an F1 ride. :laugh:

[Hawkmoon]

Alonso is going to Mercedes to replace Hamilton (can't announce it now because it might destabilize Mercedes as the title battle draws to a conclusion).

Vettel to Ferrari to replace Alonso.

Hamilton to Ferrari to replace Raikkonen.

Raikkonen to McLaren to replace Button.

Button to Williams to replace Massa.

Massa to Sauber or retirement.

I'll accept your wondrous applause when I'm proven right just after the season ends. ;)

[Bagwan]

Ok Baggie you've sucked me in. At the U.S. Grand Prix, Fred will announce he will drive for Haas in 2016. His partner will be decided in testing between Montoya, and Jacques, with the loser getting the test seat! :crazy: :p:

Don't be crazy , Tazmo . You know JV and Juan Pablum don't get along .

And , don't be getting that new tat before the Austin race , because you've already got the right one .

[Tazio]

Don't be crazy , Tazmo . You know JV and Juan Pablum don't get along .

And , don't be getting that new tat before the Austin race , because you've already got the right one . It's a little late for that dawg!

http://i.imgur.com/dU2kG9V.jpg?1

:angel:

[donKey jote]

Atsuga VM :laugh:

[dj_bytedisaster]

Must be some weird Japanese gaming console :roflmao:

[Doc Austin]

Takuma Sato (at Honda's request) to replace Button. Hey, crazier things have happened.

[Tazio]

Atsuga VM :laugh: Sorry ya''awl boys are so envious of my scooter!

http://i.imgur.com/dU2kG9V.jpg?2


:angel: ;)

[Tazio]

It appears to be a baseless rumor, but I can't let it go unmentioned. Slash's name is being mentioned in connection with Haas F1. :cool:

Haas F1 team, the embryonic North Carolina-based F1 outfit, could be Sutil's lifeline, even though the Ferrari-linked outfit will not debut until 2016. When asked about drivers, chief Gunther Steiner told Speed Week that having an American in the cockpit straight away is "not a must".

"We are a new team and we don't want to take any big risks," he said. "If there is a fantastic US driver, then yes. But if he is a rookie with no experience ... we want an experienced driver," Steiner insisted. "I have no names," he added, "but if Sauber changes its drivers then Adrian Sutil could be on the market
http://www.f1today.net/en/news/haas-on-the-market-to-keep-sutils-f1-dream-alive
:angel:

[steveaki13]

I heard that F1 2015 is driving for Haas in 2016 :stareup:

[N. Jones]

Felipe Nasr to drive for Sauber next season. HE's bringing youth and money - two things needed to drive in F1. :(\

https://www.facebook.com/sauberf1team/photos/a.175722722475202.39437.169175846463223/744396765607792/?type=1&theater

[Robinho]

The guy has won championships in F BMW and F3, and won races in GP2 and currently is 2nd in Gp2 standings. That's much better than some of the recent rookies, plus he has experience in a current F1 car, I'd say he's worth a go, especially when compared to Gutierrez and Sutil

[A FONDO]

The few times I watched GP2, Nasr looked like a complete muppet, like if you combine Massas and Rosbergs weak sides.

[A FONDO]

So, at the moment things are like this, if I missed something, tell it:

Mercedes - Hamilton, Rosberg
Red Bull - Ricciardo, Kvyat
Ferrari - Vettel, Raikkonen
McLaren - Magnussen, Alonso, Button, Groesjan
Williams - Bottas, Massa
Force India - Perez, Hulkenberg
Sauber - Eriksson, Nasr
Lotus - Maldonado, Groesjan
Toro Rosso - Verstappen, Vergne, Sainz

[Tazio]

Felipe Nasr to drive for Sauber next season. HE's bringing youth and money - two things needed to drive in F1. :(\

https://www.facebook.com/sauberf1team/photos/a.175722722475202.39437.169175846463223/744396765607792/?type=1&theater
And it may be that some of that money will go toward paying off Slash. :rolleyes:


Whereas Gutierrez will be out of contract at the end of the year, Sutil has said for some time that he does still have a firm deal with the team for 2015. It appears that this would be paid off using some of the financial backing that Nasr and Ericsson bring to the seats

After seven seasons racing in F1, Sutil will be hoping to find another seat on the 2015 grid, but he has shown few signs of desperation over the past few months. Instead, he has insisted that Sauber’s decisions do not change his outlook for next year, and it is unlikely they will until a resolution with his contract is found.

http://motorsportstalk.nbcsports.com/2014/11/06/sutil-still-has-sauber-contract-for-2015-says-announced-line-up-may-not-race/

[truefan72]

Hmm,

the sauber situation is a curious one indeed

I thought sutil brought his own sponsorship with him and also had a seat for next year, so that will have to be sorted out.
Sutil's downside is that he crashes a lot. Probably on par or more so than maldonado. the difference being that i think maldonado is a much better driver when he is on.

But for what its worth, I think sutil is still way better than either ericsson and especially nasr who i watched extensively in gp2. Nasr like others have said, is like a combination of the worst of massa and rosberg. Yes he is a capable driver...but then again so is everyone up and down the grid. but is not a strong pack driver, doesn't have the killer instinct and tends to go the safe route rather than "winning " route in his approach to races. I have seen nothing in his gp2 drives that would indicate anything other than an F1 backmarker imo.

In many ways this is an indictment of F1 and it lack of revenue sharing system that we see Sauber take a step back with its two drivers who are clearly much poorer than the 2 they have on the roster, in essence 2 mediocre pay drivers. I would have loved to see buemi in that sauber seat. But sadly for him, all he has to offer is his lightning speed and pedigree. Things that you would think would be attractive to any team.

Seriously what is the point of being in F1 as a team if you have mediocre drivers who can't even extract the car's potential or push its development forward.
Yes they will have money, but to what end?

[Mark]

Felipe Nasr to drive for Sauber next season. HE's bringing youth and money - two things needed to drive in F1. :(\

https://www.facebook.com/sauberf1team/photos/a.175722722475202.39437.169175846463223/744396765607792/?type=1&theater

Felipe Nasr; that won't cause any confusion then. Should have popped up "Sorry that name is already taken"

[zako85]

My prediction for the 2015 Formula 1 season: Ross Brawn buys Marussia team for $1, hires Button and Barrichello, wins double championships again, then sells the team to Audi for $100 million.

[truefan72]

My prediction for the 2015 Formula 1 season: Ross Brawn buys Marussia team for $1, hires Button and Barrichello, wins double championships again, then sells the team to Audi for $100 million.

if only that were true.

I cannot image F1 in 2015 with only 18 cars
i blame max miosley for this nonsense.
then I blame the FIA and bernie
He effectively blackmailed the 3 entries and handicapped them from the start with his cosworth engine nonsense and "budget teams"
then they refused to allow the former toyota team to enter F1, despite toyota already having a fully developed car in place, and denied other more viable and financially secure teams.

Then i blame bernie and his cohorts for their stupid archaic and untenable payout system, when all logic dictates a revenue sharing system.

Now we are short 4 seats for next year and the silly season has become the sad season

[I am evil Homer]

Marussia is done: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/29954250

[greencroft]

Felipe Nasr; that won't cause any confusion then. Should have popped up "Sorry that name is already taken"

It certainly confused me when I heard it on the radio the other day. I immediately did 2+2=5 and assumed Alonso was doing a 1 year deal with Williams so Felipe M had to fall on his sword and go back to his roots with Sauber. Not being a follower of GP2 I had never heard of the other Felipe.

[zako85]

if only that were true.

I cannot image F1 in 2015 with only 18 cars
i blame max miosley for this nonsense.
then I blame the FIA and bernie

I started to think about this issue 2-3 years ago. Indeed, one serious problem with F1 is that it is pretty much impossible for a brand new team to establish itself in the sport. If you look at all the top and midfield teams, they started their life decades ago: Mercedes tracing its roots to Brawn, Honda and Tyrrell, Red Bull based on Jaguar which was based on Stewart, Toro Rosso taking over Minardi, etc. Basically all "new" teams of the 21st century simply started by taking over older struggling teams. But where is at least one well established team that was created from nothing in the last 15 years or so?

I believe it's crucial for the sport of F1 to make it possible for newcomers to join and adopt to racing. Otherwise, how else will F1 make up for the fact that sometimes teams go out of business for good without giving birth to new team? Toyota folded completely. So did Prost, Lotus, and many other teams. Of course, if this is allowed to happen, we can end up with 9, 8, or just 7 teams with no hope of adding new successful teams.

We know that most newcomers are probably destined to fail in the long term, but we need to have at least one out of two-three to be able to succeed. Given the costs, I don't think that's possible. I think the way to go forward, is to allow some times to buy a customer chassis from another team, or to do joint chassis development.

[airshifter]

My prediction for the 2015 Formula 1 season: Ross Brawn buys Marussia team for $1, hires Button and Barrichello, wins double championships again, then sells the team to Audi for $100 million.

Not even close. You failed to mention how Flavio Briatore will be the principle, and Jacques will develop the car! :laugh:

[steveaki13]

With so few cars forever more in F1 if it keeps going the way it is, then new drivers will hardly ever get a chance.

[N4D13]

Spanish press is reporting that McLaren has signed Alonso for two years, with the option of a third. But since this is Spanish press, and therefore utter rubbish, I'm not even going to dignify that with a link. I just thought you should know, though. :p

[dj_bytedisaster]

Spanish press is reporting that McLaren has signed Alonso for two years, with the option of a third. But since this is Spanish press, and therefore utter rubbish, I'm not even going to dignify that with a link. I just thought you should know, though. :p

That's what McLaren WANT to sign him for, but Fernando still tries to get a one year gig or one with an exit clause so he can try to get into the Merc when Lewis's contract is up. But Honda want him for longer as they know they won't be at the top right away.

[N4D13]

In case you hadn't heard that (or if you had any doubts about this), the skirt chaser formerly known as King of Spain said on TV today that Alonso ensured him that he'd be driving for McLaren in 2015. That's what everyone expected, but still, this is the closest that we're getting to a confirmation before the actual confirmation. :P

[RS]

http://m.gpupdate.net/en/f1-news/320244/ferrari-signs-gutierrez-as-reserve-driver/

This has to be sponsorship related surely?

[Tazio]

That, and I think Ferrari are cultivating connections in North America. Maybe this means EG has the inside track for one of the seats at Haas F1.
Yeah babe, EG, Slash, and Jacques :dork: :laugh: ;)

[RS]

http://m.gpupdate.net/en/f1-news/320244/ferrari-signs-gutierrez-as-reserve-driver/

This has to be sponsorship related surely?

Ahem... http://www.gpupdate.net/en/f1-news/320278/ferrari-secures-backing-from-america-movil/

Quite surprised Ferrari take a pay driver. On the other hand Gutierrez does have good experience of racing the current 'hybrid' F1 cars should he be needed in a reserve capacity.

[CNR]

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/117254
"Mercedes confirms Alonso is plan B to F1 champion Hamilton for 2016"

[kfzmeister]

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/117254
"Mercedes confirms Alonso is plan B to F1 champion Hamilton for 2016"

Makes me wonder if HAM still has a desire to race for McLaren, especially now that Honda is back and that oh so closely resembles his idol's era. Is he the one that is in the driver's seat when it comes to negotiating? Is he the one that is watching how the Honda does in the back of the McLaren??

[Storm]

If the McLaren Honda does well in the next couple of years (which means a few race wins by 2016), Hamilton might want to try it out. (also that Toto quote seems to have a bit of mindgame element to it too...)

[Tazio]

http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2015/01/vergne-cant-wait-to-start-with-ferrari-i-never-expected-it-to-happen/
Great news in my opinion, and I think he can jump Gutierrez in a straight fight for Kimi's seat if he retires at the end of the year. Plus I would not be the least bit surprised if Ferrari export Gutierrez to Haas F1 in 2016, as Mexicans, and Mexican-Americans really are crazed sport fans, and tbh I know more Mexicans that embrace F1 than Anglo-Americans!


Vergne is managed by the wily Julian Jakobi, who in his time has managed Juan Pablo Montoya, Alain Prost and Ayrton Senna among many others. Vergne has some powerful supporters behind the scenes in F1. With Raikkonen likely to end his F1 career this season, Jakobi will have advised Vergne that being in-house with three years F1 experience might put him in a good position to replace the Finn.
He also has some old friends within Ferrari, like Sporting Director Massimo Rivola, who used to be at Toro Rosso.

[journeyman racer]

JEV has to spend his year at Ferrari realising what his strengths are, and working on nullifying the differences between him and Ricciardo, which is what made RB pick Ricciardo over him. Through Dan he can judge where he'd have been in last year's c'ship. , and can see what is possible for him. He has to make sure when the time comes, he's ready to make the most of it. Otherwise, you'll get a Perez/McLaren, Brundle/Benetton, McLaren situation.

[CNR]

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/117352
MERCEDES may not have all there own way this year
Analysis: Formula 1's 2015 nose rules change a headache for teams

"


Analysis: Formula 1's 2015 nose rules change a headache for teams

By Jonathan Noble and Edd Straw Tuesday, January 13th 2015, 11:48 GMT







2015 F1 nose illustration

The push to rid Formula 1 of ugly noses in 2015 may have been done for simple aesthetics, but it has caused complications for design teams.

After a raft of criticisms about the look of last year's cars - which left fans and team bosses up in arms - the FIA moved to outlaw the extended nose tips for 2015.

A tweak to F1's technical regulations stipulating strict dimensional criteria to outlaw the extended noses nipped the problem in the bud, and no longer will F1 cars be compared to proboscis monkeys or anteaters.

But although the tweak to the noses may seem minor, the impact it has had on influencing design evolution for 2015 has been relatively big.

The reason for that is fairly simple: because the nose is the first part of the car to hit the air, it has an impact on how the airflow works over everything behind it.

Force India technical director Andy Green told AUTOSPORT: "Everything downstream from the front wing sets up everything else. So a change in that area makes a big difference to how you develop the car.

"The car is tuned around a certain set of circumstances at the front of the car.

"So it required a lot of aerodynamic reconfiguring to try to recover what was, to start with, quite a significant loss from where we were with the high nose.

"To go down to a very low nose took a lot of change. We're there now, but it took quite a while."

Green thinks that the tight wording of Article 15.4.3 of the technical regulations will ensure that most noses look the same, with a design similar to Ferrari's 2014 car likely, but the key will be how well each team can finetune its design for maximum aerodynamic benefit.

"

[CNR]

http://www.foxsports.com.au/motor-sport/formula-one/red-bull-advisor-helmut-markos-extraordinary-warning-to-daniel-ricciardo/story-e6frf3zl-1227353463767

Marko has delivered an extraordinary warning to Ricciardo and his teammate Daniil Kyvat, stating they must lift their game because the younger drivers at Toro Rosso are doing a “better job” and nipping at their heels for the lead driver positions.

I think after last year any top team would take Daniel Ricciardo
Ricciardo, meanwhile, is refusing to commit to Red Bull beyond this season.

[truefan72]

http://www.foxsports.com.au/motor-sport/formula-one/red-bull-advisor-helmut-markos-extraordinary-warning-to-daniel-ricciardo/story-e6frf3zl-1227353463767

Marko has delivered an extraordinary warning to Ricciardo and his teammate Daniil Kyvat, stating they must lift their game because the younger drivers at Toro Rosso are doing a “better job” and nipping at their heels for the lead driver positions.

I think after last year any top team would take Daniel Ricciardo
Ricciardo, meanwhile, is refusing to commit to Red Bull beyond this season.

in about 10 years expect to see the book called "The rise and fall of Team RBR"
an cautionary tale of how to create a successful team and then at its apex how then to go about destroying it

[AndyL]

It just goes to show that Red Bull are no different to any other sponsor or team-owning manufacturer (apart from Ferrari). When they decide they're not getting their money's worth any more they'll be gone in a flash. Bernie's $70m-a-year bribe to get them to stay in the sport will ultimately prove to be a waste of money.

[airshifter]

in about 10 years expect to see the book called "The rise and fall of Team RBR"
an cautionary tale of how to create a successful team and then at its apex how then to go about destroying it

Yeah, suddenly it's Ricciardo's fault. He only beat Vettel. What a slacker!

[jens]

Ricciardo is hardly going to be replaced in Red Bull, unless he has fallen out with the team.

And if this is the case, even the best drivers get replaced as Alonso (2007, 2014) and Prost (1991) can attest!

Other than that I hear that Bottas might replace Räikkönen. Let's see, what comes out of this. Kimi isn't exactly bad (though his qualifyings are), but he is not great either and getting on a bit in terms of age. Me thinks it is time to look to the future for Ferrari.

[AndyL]

Other than that I hear that Bottas might replace Räikkönen. Let's see, what comes out of this. Kimi isn't exactly bad (though his qualifyings are), but he is not great either and getting on a bit in terms of age. Me thinks it is time to look to the future for Ferrari.

A straight swap between Bottas and Raikkonen could be good for both drivers and satisfactory for both teams too.

[CNR]

http://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/ferrari-move-is-unlikely-for-aussie-f1-star/2692864/

The 25-year-old is contracted to Red Bull until 2018, but speculation has suggested former champion Kimi Raikkonen was on the outer at Ferrari and Ricciardo was the main target.

"From my understanding it's not likely I can get out," he replied when asked ahead of this weekend's British Grand Prix whether he might switch camps.

"I would never rule anything out completely. I don't have experience with contracts. Things can change."

[anfield5]

Can't see Williams wanting Raikkonen, better for them to give JEV a race seat

[jens]

Yep. Räikkönen has had a good and relatively successful career (1 WDC, 20 wins), but really now it is time for others to get a chance in good seats. If Bottas moves up to Ferrari, Hülkenberg, Perez and maybe somebody else could have a shot at the Williams seat. Wonder, if Williams could consider a rookie as well.

About rookies... looking forward to the entrance of Stoffel Vandoorne. In my view he may be actually more talented than Magnussen was and is currently owning GP2. In any case, the next 'big thing' as the saying goes. Wonder, what McLaren thinks, but it might be the end of the road for Button.

[N4D13]

Yep. Räikkönen has had a good and relatively successful career (1 WDC, 20 wins), but really now it is time for others to get a chance in good seats. If Bottas moves up to Ferrari, Hülkenberg, Perez and maybe somebody else could have a shot at the Williams seat. Wonder, if Williams could consider a rookie as well.

About rookies... looking forward to the entrance of Stoffel Vandoorne. In my view he may be actually more talented than Magnussen was and is currently owning GP2. In any case, the next 'big thing' as the saying goes. Wonder, what McLaren thinks, but it might be the end of the road for Button.
I think Jenson is showing that he still has it in him. McLaren could try to squeeze the Dutchman into a seat in Manor or Force India, but even if he gets a McLaren seat, I would be very surprised if Button couldn't find a seat somewhere else.

Anyway, from what I gather, Jense is very well liked at McLaren, isn't he? Dropping him couldn't possibly bode well with most of the team.

[N. Jones]

No, unless think the 2016 car will be a giant leap from the 2015 one. Then, I think they go back to Magnussen or someone else with more youthful reactions than Button.

[truefan72]

so here are my thoughts for 2016

Mercedes - Hamilton / Rosberg
Ferrari - Vettel / Hulkenberg
Williams - Bottas / Magnussen
Mclaren - Alonso /Van Dorne
Force India- Perez/di Resta
Red Bull - Ricciardo/Kyvyatt
Torro Roso - Verstappen / Sainz
lotus - Grosjean / Vergne
Sauber - Ericson (if there is no money then Nasr) / Maldonado
haas F1 - Rossi / Guitierez
Manor - Stevens / ?

retiring: Massa, Button, Kimi

[anfield5]

For what it is worth..
merc ... No change
Ferrari... Vettel and Bottas
Williams.. hulkenberg and Vergne
McLaren... Alonso and vanDoorne
Force India... Perez and Button
Red Bull... No change
Toro Rosso... No change
Black Team... Grosjran and Palmer
Sauber... No change unless they want Kimi in which case Ericson out
Manor... Two new well sponsored Gp2/3 drivers
Haas... Guitierez and Rossi

Of these the most unlikely is seeing Button go to a new team ifcLaren don't want him

[steveaki13]

I think Bottas or Ricciardo will get a Ferrari seat, although Vettel might not be happy. Meaning Massa might stay for another season.

[jens]

I think Bottas or Ricciardo will get a Ferrari seat, although Vettel might not be happy. Meaning Massa might stay for another season.

Yep. If Bottas leaves, Massa might be kept for continuity's sake, life teams often do. After all, Massa isn't currently performing all too bad either, being a match to Bottas.

[N. Jones]

I agree, can't see Massa leaving Williams. He has done well there.

Where does the Vergne and diResta talk come from? diResta doesn't excite me much.

[anfield5]

Vergne is too good not to be racing, diResta is idle speculation and prob does not justify a drive

[CNR]

http://www.espn.co.uk/f1/story/_/id/13225604/ten-drivers-consideration-haas-f1-seat
Gene Haas has a shortlist of 10 drivers he is considering to spearhead his team's entry next year, with the American keen to sign someone "currently competing on the starting grid" in F1.

Nico Hulkenberg is believed to be a target, though the German is also a potential Ferrari signing for 2016 if it does not retain Kimi Raikkonen and cannot sign Valtteri Bottas from Williams.

[jens]

Hülkenberg would be insane to go to Haas, throwing his career into bin just like Glock or Kovalainen did... or, ugh I just have to say it out loud, Alonso just did (bam!).

I agree Vergne is a good driver, just like Alguersuari was. But there are too many good drivers in the Red Bull driver roster. And several teams need paydrivers. If all teams hired on merit, a driver of Vergne's quality would have certainly found a seat.

[CNR]

http://www.racer.com/f1/item/119279-massa-bottas-crucial-to-driver-market
Massa signed a multi-year contract with Williams, which started last year, and said he would be keen to stay on with the team.

"I don't see the point not to stay here," said Massa, adding there have already been talks about his future. "I really like to work with this team – the team respect me a lot, I feel relaxed and we have some good results as well.

"I don't see why things should change. We have an option for next year, but I don't see why we would not take the option to carry on."

[anfield5]

Massa has done passably well at Williams, however if they want to move forward I don't see little Phil as the driver to lead them. He is a good to excellent second driver, consistent, dependable and able to regularly score points, but I feel Williams need either a young driver able to do the same, or someone who can push further.

[zako85]

There is a difference between what Williams wants and what's actually feasible. I am nearly sure that Massa will stay is at Williams because of Brazilian sponsors. In one way, you could say that Massa is a pay driver. On the other hand, race-in race-out he delivers consistently good results and points that wouldn't be guaranteed with many many other drivers on the market.

[jens]

Actually I am amazed, how "fortunate" Massa has been in his career. One day I was thinking that ever since 2006 he has always been driving cars, which were in top 3 in the constructors championship! Except 2009, when Ferrari missed out only by 1 point, and even that due to Massa's injury.

I mean while Alonso has made bad career choices and results do not reflect well enough on his innate talent, Massa in contrast has got a great career, which basically exceeds his talent. The most fortunate move - he was basically sacked from Ferrari for being rubbish. He then joined Williams, because Maldonado thought PDVSA money would be at better use in Lotus, and Williams themselves barely got any points in 2013. Massa joins, and bam!, Williams is a top 3 team on the grid.

[mr_swiss]

Maybe Massa is on ok driver, but is way better in working with the team and bring the whole team to the front.

[zako85]

Actually I am amazed, how "fortunate" Massa has been in his career.


Such point of view certainly has a right to exist. In addition, my personal speculation is if Maldonado remained in Williams instead of Massa right now, he probably wouldn't have scored half of Massa's current points.

[kfzmeister]

Actually I am amazed, how "fortunate" Massa has been in his career. One day I was thinking that ever since 2006 he has always been driving cars, which were in top 3 in the constructors championship! Except 2009, when Ferrari missed out only by 1 point, and even that due to Massa's injury.

I mean while Alonso has made bad career choices and results do not reflect well enough on his innate talent, Massa in contrast has got a great career, which basically exceeds his talent. The most fortunate move - he was basically sacked from Ferrari for being rubbish. He then joined Williams, because Maldonado thought PDVSA money would be at better use in Lotus, and Williams themselves barely got any points in 2013. Massa joins, and bam!, Williams is a top 3 team on the grid.

I think in ALO's case, his outspokenness has actually been a setback for him, while Massa's calm demeanor has allowed him to be a part of some big things. Unfortunately, nice guys rarely ever win it all in F1!

[jens]

Such point of view certainly has a right to exist. In addition, my personal speculation is if Maldonado remained in Williams instead of Massa right now, he probably wouldn't have scored half of Massa's current points.

You may be right about that! :D

[anfield5]

Re Massa. I guess his staying at Williams may depend on Bottas. Eventhough I sugested Hulk and JEV in at Williams, Massa will probably stay IF Bottas goes to Ferrari. Consistancy in a team is important and Massa has driven well enough to be retained by the team, even without any Brazilian backing monies. I just don't see him as a team leader who can drive a team forwards

[Robinho]

I believe Massage signed a multi year contract last year, so don't expect him to be going anywhere.

Sent from my 0PJA10 using Tapatalk

[truefan72]

It is being reported (Eurosport) that Wiliams has agreed to a 12million pound buyout of Bottas from Ferrari and the finn is set to replace kimi at Ferrari for 2016

while i can somewhat understand releasing kimi ( he never felt comfortable in his return for whatever reason) The move for bottas makes sense for ferrari but not so much for bottas. If there is anything his teammate could have told him was to warn him about the dangers of taking a job to be firmly a #2 driver. Bottas is a rising star and if anything should have stayed at williams to become "the man" then waited to see how the cars and market shakes out in 2017. Going to ferrari now means being compromised for vettel and being treated as 2nd fiddle.
As for Kimi. I see 2 options, either retirement or a move to Force India

[rjbetty]

If that happens, then I guess Hulk will be welcomed back at Williams, in which case it would be interesting to see how he would deal with Massa.

But who would get the Force India drive? Could Vergne be a contender?

[truefan72]

If that happens, then I guess Hulk will be welcomed back at Williams, in which case it would be interesting to see how he would deal with Massa.

But who would get the Force India drive? Could Vergne be a contender?

thats a good choice and proabably deserved too

here are others i'd like to see before some newbie

buemi, diresta, kobayashi

[AndyL]

It is being reported (Eurosport) that Wiliams has agreed to a 12million pound buyout of Bottas from Ferrari and the finn is set to replace kimi at Ferrari for 2016

The story comes from an Italian newspaper it appears, with no confirmation elsewhere so it's not a certainty yet. But it makes a lot of sense for all involved. Even Bottas - no doubt he fancies his chances of measuring up against Vettel the way Ricciardo did and making a big name for himself.

[rjbetty]

thats a good choice and proabably deserved too

here are others i'd like to see before some newbie

buemi, diresta, kobayashi

I agree with those before some rookie, except Vandoorne maybe. I can't see them having di Resta back, he was too miserable and always wanting to leave. Come to think of it, I wouldn't be surprised if Kevin Magnussen ends up there if FI still have McLaren links.

[Jag_Warrior]

Going out on a limb here: Palmer takes Maldonado's Lotus seat and Maldonado takes what oil money he has left to Force India, replacing the Williams bound Hulkenberg. The two names I've heard most often for Haas F1 are Jean-Eric Vergne and Esteban Gutierrez. But the driver who I would absolutely love to see go there would be Jenson Button. I doubt he'd (willingly) step down and go to a new/development team if McLaren drops him. But I'd love to see a good dude and a great driver end up at Haas. And in the Haas-Ferrari/Ferrari, who knows... he might wind up lapping the McLaren next season.

[rjbetty]

Now that the Ferrari seat is looking filled:

MERCEDES: Lewis Hamilton, Nico Rosberg
FERRARI: Sebastian Vettel, Valtteri Bottas
WILLIAMS: Felipe Massa, Nico Hulkenberg
RED BULL: Daniel Ricciardo, Daniil Kvyat
FORCE INDIA: Sergio Perez, Kevin Magnussen
LOTUS: Romain Grosjean, Pastor Maldonado

MCLAREN: Fernando Alonso, Jenson Button
TORO ROSSO: Max Verstappen, Carlos Sainz
SAUBER: Marcus Ericsson, Felipe Nasr

MANOR: ???, Stoffel Vandoorne
HAAS F1: Esteban Gutierrez, Jean-Eric Vergne


Only 3 changes among the main teams so far. I wonder if there will be any shocks this silly-season. We have been spoiled for the last 3 season with bombshells that tilted the earth off it's axis. Maybe this year will be quieter...? :/

Well I've stuck K-MAG in at Force India. He already has experience and McLaren links so seems a logical choice. Ron will farm him out to gain more experience and iron mistakes out, while Jenson can have one more year to help develop the car and get whatever results might come. Stoffel Vandoorne will benefit from being installed at Manor (if they survive) like Ricciardo did at HRT, since Manor also have links to McLaren. Plus Manor might be getting another Bianchi in the rookie.

Haas choose Gutierrez cos he's 'kinda' American. With Ferrari links, Vergne also gets a drive since he deserves it and Gene Haas has been saying he wants an experienced driver, having been unwilling to pay Kimi's huge wage demands, when by then Vergne would do at least as well anyway.

[anfield5]

Going out on a limb here: Palmer takes Maldonado's Lotus seat and Maldonado takes what oil money he has left to Force India, replacing the Williams bound Hulkenberg. The two names I've heard most often for Haas F1 are Jean-Eric Vergne and Esteban Gutierrez. But the driver who I would absolutely love to see go there would be Jenson Button. I doubt he'd (willingly) step down and go to a new/development team if McLaren drops him. But I'd love to see a good dude and a great driver end up at Haas. And in the Haas-Ferrari/Ferrari, who knows... he might wind up lapping the McLaren next season.
Haas have said they want an American driver, hence Alex Rossi

[jens]

It is being reported (Eurosport) that Wiliams has agreed to a 12million pound buyout of Bottas from Ferrari and the finn is set to replace kimi at Ferrari for 2016

while i can somewhat understand releasing kimi ( he never felt comfortable in his return for whatever reason) The move for bottas makes sense for ferrari but not so much for bottas. If there is anything his teammate could have told him was to warn him about the dangers of taking a job to be firmly a #2 driver. Bottas is a rising star and if anything should have stayed at williams to become "the man" then waited to see how the cars and market shakes out in 2017. Going to ferrari now means being compromised for vettel and being treated as 2nd fiddle.
As for Kimi. I see 2 options, either retirement or a move to Force India

I think the "second fiddle" part is overtrumpeted here. In the same way you can claim Rosberg and Button are #2 drivers in their current teams. It is not like Bottas will be given inferior equipment. If you go to big teams you must be prepared to face top drivers.

Though I do think Vettel is likely to be better than Bottas. Bottas has been about a match to Massa so far, which leaves me an impression that the Finn indeed is a notch below absolute top drivers, but can easily be your good #2. But F1 needs these kind of drivers as well.:) But he is a good addition to Ferrari. Räikkönen is already "past it", and Bottas is much younger with good future and seems to be performing pretty consistently by getting consistent points on board (aka Button).

All drivers want to move from small(ish) teams to big teams, Bottas is no exception. Williams is smaller than works teams and frankly I do think Williams has sort of peaked and is not going to threaten the top level more than they have been doing so far in 2014-15. Kimi also moved from Lotus to Ferrari, because Lotus had peaked and was not going to perform better than they had been performing in '12-'13. He was right about that one.

[jens]

I wanted to add that if you sign deals, you must be sort of predicting the future. It is of course hard, and some predictions you can get wrong (looking at you, McLaren-Honda!)

But drivers usually want to move to places, where they feel relatively safe long-term. And Ferrari is perhaps the safest team with big budget and stuff. Barrichello also moved from Stewart to Ferrari despite Stewart having a good season in 1999.

And also about predicting... it is difficult to do, but usually it is a pretty safe guess that smaller private teams are unlikely to challenge for championships. So if your aim is to win, you aim for factory works teams, even if projects do not work out.

[jens]

http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2015/07/f1-driver-market-on-starting-blocks-with-latest-bottas-development-in-italy/

Very interesting thoughts from James Allen.

Button-Nasr in Williams? And Hülkenberg "is not good enough"?

[N4D13]

I honestly believe that Hülkenberg is a fine driver, but a rather overrated one and short of the level that is required at a top team, unless you're looking for a No. 2 driver à la Barrichello or Massa. Although, to be absolutely honest, I would put Bottas just in the same category, judging by the fact that Massa and him have been quite close.

[truefan72]

http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2015/07/f1-driver-market-on-starting-blocks-with-latest-bottas-development-in-italy/

Very interesting thoughts from James Allen.

Button-Nasr in Williams? And Hülkenberg "is not good enough"?

james allen is a fool

[truefan72]

I agree with those before some rookie, except Vandoorne maybe. I can't see them having di Resta back, he was too miserable and always wanting to leave. Come to think of it, I wouldn't be surprised if Kevin Magnussen ends up there if FI still have McLaren links.

excellent points,. forgot about magnussens. that would make sense too

[truefan72]

I honestly believe that Hülkenberg is a fine driver, but a rather overrated one and short of the level that is required at a top team, unless you're looking for a No. 2 driver à la Barrichello or Massa. Although, to be absolutely honest, I would put Bottas just in the same category, judging by the fact that Massa and him have been quite close.

I will have to disagree there with you. Hulkneberg is an exceptional driver IMO. His entire F1 career has been a display of outdriving the the cars he has been provided. Prior to that he dominated his Gp2 season. he showed at lemans that his racecraft and concentration are also sublime. If he was in a top team, we would be talking about a multiple race winner and potential WDC champion ( or serious challenger). Honestly his only limitation has been the cars he has driven. Even the williams seat isn't good enough for him. I would have picked him over bottas for ferrari but maybe form a marketing pov they didn't want 2 german drivers (which would be silly. you go with the best drivers imo).

If Lotus can get their act together (and survive) they will have a pretty good car for 2016. I think that outside RBR, Merc and Ferrari, the lotus engineers have the ability to produce a top flight car. In fact I'd say they have leapfrogged RBR in 2015 (only their drivers have let them down). So if I was hulkenberg, i'd look to join williams first or lotus.

[BleAivano]

Ericsson and Nasr have both re-signed with Sauber for next season. http://www.svt.se/sport/ericsson-forlanger-med-sauber

[anfield5]

Ericsson and Nasr have both re-signed with Sauber for next season. http://www.svt.se/sport/ericsson-forlanger-med-sauber

I think this is good for all parties. Both drivers deserve s seat on F1, and neither are quite ready to move up the grid, and Dauber have two decent and hungry pilots

[zako85]

If Button moves to Williams, as TJ13 blog speculates, Raikkonen should go back to Lotus instead of quitting F1. Just three years ago, you could easily nominate him for "the driver of year" award in 2012. The guy was phenomenal then, but something isn't clicking right for him at Ferrari. I think Raikkonen's midset is such now that he loses motivation if the team employs someone who consistently dominates him.

[N4D13]

If Button moves to Williams, as TJ13 blog speculates, Raikkonen should go back to Lotus instead of quitting F1. Just three years ago, you could easily nominate him for "the driver of year" award in 2012. The guy was phenomenal then, but something isn't clicking right for him at Ferrari. I think Raikkonen's midset is such now that he loses motivation if the team employs someone who consistently dominates him.
In my opinion, his recent performances call into question whether he was actually that good or whether the Lotus was a better car that people considered it to be and he was made look good by virtue of having such an inconsistent teammate.

At any rate, if a driver is consistently being dominated by a teammate, you really need to question whether he should remain in F1. Although Massa's case seems to prove that there is life even after that.

[N4D13]

By the way, TJ13 is considering it almost certain that Button will be replaced by Vandoorne in 2016.

[AndyL]

By the way, TJ13 is considering it almost certain that Button will be replaced by Vandoorne in 2016.

thejudge13.com claims that italiaracing.net claims that their "sources" indicate that... I love these Chinese whispers.

[jens]

Personally I think Vandoorne should definitely be in F1 next year. The next big thing, as the saying goes, and has done all that is possible to do (now dominating GP2). It almost doesn't matter, at whose expense he would be in F1, but that he would be there.:) Oh, and in a better team than Manor please.:)

[rjbetty]

Personally I think Vandoorne should definitely be in F1 next year. The next big thing, as the saying goes, and has done all that is possible to do (now dominating GP2). It almost doesn't matter, at whose expense he would be in F1, but that he would be there.:) Oh, and in a better team than Manor please.:)

Yep surely he simply has to make it to a seat. I would actually like to see him start at Manor. Daniel Ricciardo said his stint at HRT did him a world of good, and I think it would be the same for Vandoorne. Plus I would like to see Jenson have 1 more year with McLaren using his skills, and I think he should get 1 more chance to get some decent results next year when I expect McLaren to have the year they should have had this year i.e. 5th best team. Then Vandoorne can take over.

But what about Kevin Magnussen? Could his career really be over already? He will be forgotten if he doesn't get a seat next year. A shame as I think he did a good job for someone so inexperienced last year, and I think he is absolutely able to drive around Hulkenberg level if not maybe more. I'd like to see him at Force India if Hulkenberg moves, but I think they would go for Wehrlein in that case. Pascal has already done testing for FI and Merc would probably discount the engines if they ran him.

Another driver who deserves a 2nd chance is Jean-Eric Vergne. I hope he gets a drive at Haas.

Then there's the Button to Williams rumours. While at any other time I would find this fantastic to see Jenson return to the team he started, just like Frentzen in 2003, I would be unhappy to see it at Hulkenberg's expense.

What's going on with Red Bull and their engines? If they get a Merc deal, that would probably be occasional challenges for wins, with some good podiums at least. I think it's slightly more likely they will finish their final year of their Renault contract though, and 2017 is more likely for a change. In this case, an improvement for 2016 but not much more.

And what is happening at Lotus? Rumours are that Renault may be about to re-but the team. That would surely mean a return to the unloved Renault engines and a step back again, but it could be Maldonado may get the boot if Renault want one of their drivers in, especially if his money finally runs out. In this case, I wouldn't mind Vergne taking this seat, but am not sure how likely that is.

Are Manor going to get a Honda engine? I think it would only be worth it if they were free, or much cheaper than Ferrari.

My Provisional 2016 line-up could be like this


MERCEDES: Lewis Hamilton, Nico Rosberg
FERRARI: Sebastian Vettel, Valtteri Bottas
WILLIAMS - MERCEDES: Felipe Massa, Nico Hulkenberg
RED BULL - RENAULT: Daniel Ricciardo, Daniil Kvyat
FORCE INDIA - MERCEDES: Sergio Perez, Pascal Wehrlein
RENAULT: Romain Grosjean, RENAULT DRIVER 2
TORO ROSSO - RENAULT: Max Verstappen, Carlos Sainz
MCLAREN - HONDA: Fernando Alonso, Jenson Button
SAUBER - FERRARI: Felipe Nasr, Marcus Ericsson
MANOR - HONDA: Stoffel Vandoorne, MANOR DRIVER 2 (maybe Stevens again)
HAAS - FERRARI: Esteban Gutierrez, Jean-Eric Vergne

[The Black Knight]

I strongly suspect Mia's panties need to be changed right now :p

http://www.espn.co.uk/f1/story/_/id/13467912/ferrari-retains-kimi-raikkonen-2016

[f1kid1987]

I strongly suspect Mia's panties need to be changed right now :p

http://www.espn.co.uk/f1/story/_/id/13467912/ferrari-retains-kimi-raikkonen-2016

Sad for me to say but if Button doesn't perform for the last part of the season, this season might well be his last in F1, bottas is sure to stay at Williams now :(

[Mia 01]

Yes, yes, yes, whoooooa. Kimi will drive for Ferrari next year!!!!!

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/120364?_ga=1.240533827.1928002954.1413964422

[Tazio]

The likable Finn gets one more shot at redemption, really didn't expect that! May the Forza be with him! :)

[The Black Knight]

The likable Finn gets one more shot at redemption, really didn't expect that! May the Forza be with him! :)

I did really. Ferrari have never wanted a driver in their team that will challenge their number one and unless Kimi rediscovers his speed cirqua mid 2000's, I can't see him challenging Vettel

[Tazio]

I did really. Ferrari have never wanted a driver in their team that will challenge their number one and unless Kimi rediscovers his speed cirqua mid 2000's, I can't see him challenging Vettel
Good point, I guess I got sucked in by all the Bottas hype!

[zako85]

I honestly believe that Hülkenberg is a fine driver, but a rather overrated one and short of the level that is required at a top team, unless you're looking for a No. 2 driver à la Barrichello or Massa. Although, to be absolutely honest, I would put Bottas just in the same category, judging by the fact that Massa and him have been quite close.

I'd disagree. Massa has a decade of F1 experience, while Bottas is in his third full time season. In his very first full time season he managed to beat Maldonado, who had a lot more experience. It's very rare to see a new guy to come in and beat a well established driver outright in the first season. Vettel did, Hamilton did, but they are arguably the best two drivers of our time.

[Mia 01]

Cheers guys, you haven´t got a clue.

[Tazio]

:stareup: :love: Kimi !

[zako85]

If Vettel is really better than Raikkonen, then why does Ferrari keep extending the Finn's contract?

[Warriwa]

If Vettel is really better than Raikkonen, then why does Ferrari keep extending the Finn's contract?


Vettel's contract includes a clause which states "The team must provide a team mate who's atrocious performances will make me look awesome."
Kimi is perfect.

[N4D13]

Vettel's contract includes a clause which states "The team must provide a team mate who's atrocious performances will make me look awesome."
Kimi is perfect.
If that was the case, they should have kept Massa instead. Kimi may have been rather atrocious when compared to Alonso, but this year he's being much closer to Vettel, also because the car is better suited to him. Rather than poor driving, Kimi has been hampered by his car's lack of reliability.

[rjbetty]

So what do we think might happen with Red Bull and Toro Rosso's engines next year. I've been hearing about Red Bull changing to Mercedes, but also of Toro Rosso going back to Ferrari.

Or is this more likely for 2017?

If it's next year, it will have a very interesting impact indeed on the pecking order. Obviously Red Bull, even without Newey and Prodromou I would expect to be up there, certainly as good as Ferrari this year. But Toro Rosso could become very competitive indeed with many top 6 qualifying spots.


For this to happen next year, Renault would need to complete their plan to re-buy Lotus and become Renault F1 again in 2016. I guess that means they would be lumped with the Renault PU, which would surely see a slip down the order.


P.S. I quickly ran a Grand Prix 2 season under this scenario, with Kevin Magnussen installed alongside Grosjean at Renault; I much prefer him to Maldonado though I feel Pastor will get 1 more year.

The result was Hamilton retiring 3 times in a row towards season's end, with Rosberg also recording a double DNF, allowing Vettel to become champion! In fact Hamilton dropped to only 5th between the Red Bull drivers and even Kimi pipped Rosberg for 2nd. Williams took 7th and 8th, Toro Rosso 9th and 10th and McLaren 11th and 13th, with their best results being a couple of 5th places and a couple of 6ths, plus Button starting from 4th on the grid twice.

[jens]

Engine silly season is more interesting that driver silly season, that's for sure.:p:

[Robinho]

Although engine silly season could form driver silly season too, assuming Lotus becomes Renault, Merc supply manor and Red Bull do something, that could push a few drivers in/out

Sent from my 0PJA10 using Tapatalk

[rjbetty]

Yep, every time I run a test season I am having to abandon it and start again, since it now appears that Red Bull may run Ferrari engine, and they may be year old engines too! And the same for Toro Rosso. Then I hear Mercedes to Manor?!! Wow that would be amazing! Wonder if they would be old engines too though...

As for Maldonado, I feel I've run out of patience with him, can't see him really coming good now. He's had a good run, how much longer will that money last? I see him getting at least 1 more year which I won't begrudge, but even with 22 cars, there still seems a shortage of seats for good drivers.

We have Kevin Magnussen, Stoffel Vandoorne, Jean-Eric Vergne and Esteban Gutierrez amongst several others, with only a few seats going, back of the grid at that, with more than 1 name being left without a chair when the music stops.

[anfield5]

Much seems to depend on Renault, and if they come back a s a constructor i.e. buy the Black team. If they do it seems that it will be an exclusive deal and both RedBull teams will have to look elsewhere. Therese elsewhere options are limited as Merc have already said they will not supply Red Bull because they don't want to help a team with strong chassis designs. RedBull wont work with Honda yet, because they don't want to help in the development side of things, if Honda were producing a powerful and reliable engine, RedBull would want in, but McLaren have a say in what if any other teams come on board, and I can't see McLaren welcoming RedBull any way, so the only option is Ferrari. The Ferrari bigs have already said that they would supply RBR and they are not afraid of the competition (a dig at Merc me thinks).

So unless RBR convince VAG to come in (too late now for next season anyway) it will be RBR-Ferrari next year.

As for Manor to Merc, it wont make much difference it is not the engine that is the problem for Manor it is the car. A good chassis with the 2013 Ferrari engines would be doing ok this season.

Maldo has a contract with the Black team for next season as they need his money, if Renault take over I don't think they will keep him on ( not just because of the sponsorship clash) I would guess they will keep Romain, and I would like to see Palmer promoted to race with him. JEV might be another option - good driver and French.

Rumour suggests that McLaren will promote vanDoorne alongside Fred. There is talk of Magnussen and Guitirrez both finding a home at Haas. What I have read suggests Guitierrez is almost confirmed (strong Ferrari link)

[Roamy]

kimi can still win a race and he does not crash a lot - also he keeps vettel on his best.

[rjbetty]

A quick round up of recent news: All these are either confirmed as happening or are expected to be announced as happening shortly!

Button to retire from F1 at the end of the season!

Grosjean to Haas! To be joined by almost certainly Esteban Gutierrez. If not him, then Jean-Eric Vergne.

Lotus F1 will become the Renault works F1 team, using Renault engines and retaining Pastor Maldonado.

Red Bull Racing will be sold to Volkswagen, who will enter F1 under the Audi name apparently. Seems they will develop their own engines for 2018, and will use Ferrari engines (most likely 1yr old) for 2016-2017.



Exciting times folks!

[Tazio]

Grosjean to Haas! To be joined by almost certainly Esteban Gutierrez. If not him, then Jean-Eric Vergne.




Exciting times folks!
Is Ferrari west aka Haas really going to get these guys? I can't wait to see how this plays out :crazy:

[rjbetty]

Is Ferrari west aka Haas really going to get these guys? I can't wait to see how this plays out :crazy:

Hmmm I dunno, I could have jumped the gun. I've done that before (remember Bruno Senna to Force India for 2013?).

[steveaki13]

Some surprising news for me.

Interesting to see if Haas get these decent drivers and how fast the car can be.

[Rollo]

Red Bull Racing will be sold to Volkswagen, who will enter F1 under the Audi name apparently. Seems they will develop their own engines for 2018, and will use Ferrari engines (most likely 1yr old) for 2016-2017.


Der Sport Bild in their magazine seems to think that Audi is more likely to use the name Auto Union than to pollute the name of Audi, in case it fails.

[I am evil Homer]

That would make a lot of sense with Audi in WEC, VW in WRC and of course the historical connection to F1 with Auto Union.

[zako85]

VW Fraud Could Kill Their Buyout of Red Bull Racing (http://thejudge13.com/2015/09/21/vw-fraud-could-kill-their-buy-out-of-red-bull-racing/)

and

Volkswagen Sheds Over $15 Billion in Market Cap as Shares Crash 20% (http://profit.ndtv.com/news/international-business/article-volkswagen-sheds-over-15-billion-in-market-cap-as-shares-crash-20-1220225)

and

Volkswagen CEO Martin Winterkorn to 'resign by end of the week' over emissions scandal - LIVE (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/11881819/Volkswagen-live-VW-issues-profit-warning-sets-aside-6.5bn.html)

[rjbetty]

So what do we think the driver line up for next year might look like now, after some recent revelations?

How about this: bold = confirmed or essentially confirmed, I've added likely drivers for the open seats.

Mercedes: Lewis Hamilton, Nico Rosberg
Ferrari: Sebastian Vettel, Kimi Raikkonen
Williams-Mercedes: Valtteri Bottas, Felipe Massa
Red Bull-Ferrari (1yr old engines): Daniel Ricciardo, Daniil Kvyat

Force India-Mercedes: Nico Hulkenberg, Sergio Perez, Pascal Wehrlein, Jean-Eric Vergne, Stoffel Vandoorne, Kevin Magnussen

Renault F1: Pastor Maldonado, Jean-Eric Vergne, Sergio Perez, Kevin Magnussen

Toro Rosso-Ferrari (1yr old engines): Max Verstappen, Carlos Sainz
Sauber-Ferrari: Felipe Nasr, Marcus Ericsson

McLaren-Honda: Fernando Alonso, Stoffel Vandoorne, Kevin Magnussen, Jenson Button

Manor-Mercedes (probably 1yr old engines): Pascal Wehrlein, Stoffel Vandoorne, Will Stevens, could be anyone really.

Haas-Ferrari: Probably Romain Grosjean and Esteban Gutierrez, but could also be Jean-Eric Vergne or Kevin Magnussen.




Unfortunately, the FIA's massive screw-up over engine tokens etc apparently means teams can now dump old engines on other teams rather than have to give the same specification to all customers. This looks likely to affect Red Bull and Toro Rosso, but could also hamper, aside from Manor, Force India, Williams and Sauber too. This could mean Ron Dennis could end up having a point about a works engine being the only way to go.


And how do we think the competitive order might shake up? In 2015 so far, average qualifying has gone something like this (to nearest 0.05sec):

1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg +0.25
3.Vettel +0.70
4.Raikkonen +1.15
5.Bottas +1.15
6.Massa +1.20
7.Ricciardo +1.35
8.Grosjean +1.60
9.Kvyat +1.65
10.Sainz +1.70
11.Verstappen +1.85
12.Hulkenberg +1.90
13.Maldonado +1.90
14.Perez +2.20
15.Nasr +2.30
16.Ericsson +2.45
17.Alonso +2.85
18.Button +3.05
19.Stevens +5.70
20.Merhi +6.10

Assuming Red Bull, Toro Rosso, Force India and Sauber get year old engines, I will hazard a guess of this qualifying after 2016 is done and dusted:

1.Hamilton (Mercedes)
2.Rosberg (Mercedes) +0.12
3.Vettel (Ferrari) +0.38
4.Ricciardo (Red Bull) +0.72
5.Kvyat (Red Bull) +0.80
6.Bottas (Williams) +0.81
7.Raikkonen (Ferrari) +0.84
8.Sainz (Toro Rosso) +0.89
9.Massa (Williams) +0.90
10.Verstappen (Toro Rosso) +0.95

11.Hulkenberg (Force India) +1.60
12.Alonso (McLaren) +1.73
13.Magnussen (Force India) +1.75
14.Nasr (Sauber) +2.01
15.Vandoorne (McLaren) +2.25
16.Ericsson (Sauber) +2.33

17.Maldonado (Renault) +2.48
18.Perez (Renault) +2.56
19.Grosjean (Haas) +3.12
20.Gutierrez (Haas) +3.69
21.Wehrlein (Manor) +3.74
22.MANOR 2 (or Stevens) +4.07


This wouldn't be the case in race trim though, especially for Ferrari and Toro Rosso.

[CNR]

I can see a court case with Red Bull if Renault use any of the tokens left for next years engine
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2293016-why-an-engine-change-in-2016-is-not-the-best-option-for-formula-1
"Renault (via Red Bull) and Ferrari, aware they would not be able to do all they wanted to during the winter, demanded some tokens be made available for changes during the season."
honda redbull in motogp so could we see them in f1?

[jens]

Wow, rj. Next year predictions get earlier each year, don't they?! You are already calculating 2016 averages. :p:

I am unsure what to think of the Renault potential takeover of the Lotus team. It looks like they have still re-signed Maldonado. Renault wants to supply 1 team only... It leaves an impression they want "to do" F1 on a shoestring budget. That's why Red Bull sent them away, because taking things "half-seriously" won't bring success. In the context of 2016 this new Renault team may well endure a kind of season the same Lotus had in 2014 then...

As for Red Bull themselves... Things are getting very messy. I don't know what to think of Mateschitz' threats of pull-out if they don't get an up-to-date power unit, but competitive situation in F1 is bad (only 2 competitive engine/team combos) and Red Bull doesn't want to be an also-ran team like McLaren is...

Button retiring? Well, unless he is pushed out behind the doors, he must have lost belief in the McLaren-Honda project... Quite telling.

[jens]

And how do we think the competitive order might shake up? In 2015 so far, average qualifying has gone something like this (to nearest 0.05sec):


8.Grosjean +1.60
9.Kvyat +1.65
10.Sainz +1.70
11.Verstappen +1.85
12.Hulkenberg +1.90
13.Maldonado +1.90
14.Perez +2.20



I have to say this is pretty interesting. Despite Force India being well ahead of Toro Rosso in WCC, they have been worse in qualifyings. Also Lotus has been better than FI. Shows what a splendid job FI has been doing on race days!

[jens]

The weirdest rumour is Grosjean to Haas. It doesn't make any sense on any front. It reminds me of how Glock/Kovalainen went to Virgin/Caterham or whatever they were called back in 2010.

The only "sense" this move has is if despite Renault take-over the team is in such a huge financial trouble they need another paydriver alongside Maldonado and Grosjean doesn't bring "enough" despite oil giant Total support I think.

[rjbetty]

I have to say this is pretty interesting. Despite Force India being well ahead of Toro Rosso in WCC, they have been worse in qualifyings. Also Lotus has been better than FI. Shows what a splendid job FI has been doing on race days!

Yeah they have been doing. It's interesting that last year Toro Rosso were also quicker than FI in qualifying. The averages were roughly...

11.Kvyat +1.8
12.Hulkenberg +1.9
13.Vergne +1.9
14.Perez +2.2

Yet in the final points FI were way WAY ahead of Toro Rosso.


As for Grosjean, the BBC are now reporting it too. Here's a link. If they are posting it, it's probably serious.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/34316550

Romain's reasoning is that Haas' close links with Ferrari will enable him to use the team as a shop window to display his talents and audition for a Ferrari seat for 2017. Ferrari will use their links to be able to see all his data. It's a dangerous game as Hulkenberg tried this a few years ago with Sauber and was found to fall slightly short in Ferrari's opinion. I also think Grosjean probably thinks he has little to lose since his current team are due to take back that Renault engine again, and yeah drop back to near 2014 levels, so he thinks no thanks I'm outta here.

Ah yeah just like Christmas, the predictions get earlier and earlier. Guess I just can't resist. :p But it'll be interesting to see how they change up until the eve of the first race, as new details filter through.

[zako85]

The weirdest rumour is Grosjean to Haas. It doesn't make any sense on any front. It reminds me of how Glock/Kovalainen went to Virgin/Caterham or whatever they were called back in 2010.

It's quite simple. The Enstone team regrets letting Petrov go after 2011. Now they want their Russian back in Grosjean's seat.

[jens]

So Grosjean @ Haas is confirmed. Oh god. I sympathize a lot with him, but it looks like a career straight into dustbin.

As for claims that this could be an audition for the Ferrari seat, I doubt it. Ferrari will of course extend Räikkönen's deal again, regardless of how much he underperforms... Massa vol.2.

More seriously I think Ricciardo and Bottas are likely to be ahead of Grosjean on the driver market wish list again, just like they were this year. And who knows, who else...

Simple logic tells - if Ferrari REALLY wanted Grosjean, they would have signed him this year, because he was available. Instead of retaining another (aging) driver. Ricciardo and also Bottas were under contract as I understand. There were rumours Ferrari had to pay 10-15M to get Valtteri out of the deal and probably it didn't make financial sense.

I think 2015 (silly) season also sort of unofficially confirms that Hülkenberg's top team aspirations are over, despite him being available. Though considering he can't beat Pérez any more either, it now seems to have some merit. At least Hulk can still continue in strong midfield unlike RoGro...

[dj_bytedisaster]

So Grosjean @ Haas is confirmed. Oh god. I sympathize a lot with him, but it looks like a career straight into dustbin.

Why? Next year's Haas will look a damn lot like this year's Ferrari. That's gotta be good enough to beat most other cars and Haas is essentially To Ferrari what Toro Rosso is to Red Bull - a team to park or develop drivers and Kimi's only on for another year. RoGro would be in pole position for a 2017 Ferrari seat.

[jens]

As far as I understand, Haas' chassis is designed by Dallara, who also built the HRT chassis (though was paid less than by Haas). Haas purchases the drivetrain and power unit from Ferrari, but nowadays all customer teams buy this kind of stuff from their engine manufacturer.

And experience of following F1 throughout years tells me that it is easy to overestimate newcomers, while you need loads of experience and money to actually succeed. Last such one was McLaren-Honda. Honda was heavily overrated before re-joining F1. And Haas isn't even a "top team" in terms of budget or manpower, they are more like in the Caterham range.

So there is no reason to get carried away. Haas beating "most of the teams" is wishful thinking, pretty clearly. They'll be firmly at the back, perhaps better than Manor though. Though if Manor gets Mercedes engines, that'll be a boost...

[Nitrodaze]

The thing with new teams like haas, is the lack of experience, lack of data history of the chassis and getting the chassis right on debut. The first year is purely going to be exploratory. Essentially to find out if they have got the chassis design right and if the Ferrari engine works well with it. Then there is the endless chase after downforce and alignment of on-track characteristic with simulated data from wind tunnel and simulators. With limited testing in todays F1, it is a mountainous task to step into the midfield from turning the wheel for the first time. Virgin tried to run a completely new computerized designed chassis and failed, Haas may do better, but the odds are stacked against them.

Mercedes was able to do that on their entry to f1 because they bought an existing team with lots of data and a chassis with lots of mileage. Hence realistically, one would expect Haas to join Manor at the rear of the grid. Unfortunately, new teams and suppliers to the F1 paddock are severely handicapped by the highly restrictive rules of the current day F1.

As for Grojean's move to Haas, it could be quite a risky move as he could be out of the visibility of other teams as a result of driving a backmarker car. A reality that is hurting Alonso and Button as the moment. They can't showcase their true capability at the back of the grid.

If Renault is focused solely on their own team, without the distraction of supplying other teams, l would think that is a better proposition to driving at the rear of the grid. The Renault team would have a chassis with lots of mileage and historical data. Even with their current underpowered engine, they would be running in the midfield. Hence they have an advantage that Haas would give their left kidney for; a midfield level chassis with good downforce and a works engine. I would expect the 2016 Renault engine to be faster than the current engine, as they would have learnt a great deal about what is wrong with the design of the current engine and where to find more horsepower in the design of next years engine.

To be honest, it is a daft move to leave Renault for Haas. Not to mention that Renault has been world champions in the past with Alonso. The comparative experience is a very wide gulf and a no brainer.

There is of course the question whether Lotus would actually be bought by Renault and whether Lotus survives their impending court case. In which case it could be a brilliant decision to jump a sinking ship.

[AndyL]

The Button retirement possibility seems to have receded a bit this weekend. Ron Dennis says on Sky that he's told Button earlier this week that McLaren will be taking up his contract option next year, no renegotiation. And in his post-race interview, Button started talking about next year's package.

[steveaki13]

Mercedes: Hamilton & Rosberg
Ferrari: Vettel & Raikkonen
Red Bull: Ricciardo & Kyvat
Williams: Massa & Bottas
Force India: Hulkenberg & Perez
Lotus: Maldonado & _____________
Toro Rosso: Sainz & Verstappen
Sauber: Nasr & Ericcson
Mclaren: Alonso & Button
Manor: Rossi & ______________
Haas: Grosjean & Gutierrez

These are my thoughts? Not sure about the vacancies

[rjbetty]

Yep pretty much agree with that. Now it looks like Button may stay after all which is good for McLaren. And surely Honda must be at least a bit better next year, so some improvement in results should come, especially with Lotus/Renault taking Renault engines back and looking like taking a dip in form.

Also, if customer teams are going to start getting year old engines, due to the poorly written rules by the FIA, it will help a works team like McLaren-Honda somewhat.

Jean-Eric Vergne is looking like the favourite to get the Renault seat, which I'm pleased to see. Now that Renault appear set to take over Lotus (they have signed a letter of intent of some sort, but the deal is still not actually confirmed yet), other pieces can now fall into place, such as Manor now getting the Mercedes supply from Lotus.

This is expected to be a year old engine deal though, but surely that would have to be cheaper which is what Manor need right now. If Mercedes engines are confirmed it is expected Pascal Wehrlein will fill the other Manor seat.

And that's the grid done! Neither Magnussen or Vandoorne are anywhere to be seen which is a real shame.


Predicted Constructors' Championship in this scenario:

1.Mercedes
2.Ferrari
3.Red Bull - Ferrari
4.Williams - Mercedes
5.Toro Rosso - Ferrari
6.Force India - Mercedes
7.McLaren - Honda
8.Sauber - Ferrari
9.Renault
10.Haas - Ferrari
11.Manor - Mercedes


EDIT: And now we are hearing that extreme sour grape partakers Red Bull will sulk it's not fair, pick up their toys and leave. Good riddance! I was in the shop yesterday and saw some cans of Red Bull on offer, but I refused and got Lucozade instead, since I don't want to give money to a brand with such a bad attitude :mad:

However that's 2 teams and 4 super drivers without seats, so as usual the 3rd car scenario is being bandied about, with seemingly not much likelihood of it happening.


P.S. I do think Bernie will twist Ferrari's or someone's arm in the end and Red Bull will get their way.

[jens]

If Red Bull and Toro Rosso get 1-year-old Ferrari engines, I wonder, how much of an improvement over Renault it really is. I guess these PU's would be more reliable nonetheless, but if Merc/Ferrari again find nearly 50 hp over winter, I guess there is not much to do with an outdated engine.

And a really-really-really big disappointment that Vandoorne can't get a seat. I mean what the hell.

[AndyL]

Button confirmed:
http://www.mclaren.com/formula1/team/jenson-button/mclaren-honda-confirms-jenson-button-for-2016/

[rjbetty]

If Red Bull and Toro Rosso get 1-year-old Ferrari engines, I wonder, how much of an improvement over Renault it really is. I guess these PU's would be more reliable nonetheless, but if Merc/Ferrari again find nearly 50 hp over winter, I guess there is not much to do with an outdated engine.

And a really-really-really big disappointment that Vandoorne can't get a seat. I mean what the hell.

Yup agree with all of this. There is a part of me that feels Red Bull doesn't deserve the latest spec Ferrari's. That's because of the way RBR treated Ferrari back in 2006 when they supplied engines. They pretty much broke their contract (well wheedled round it someway) cos they really wanted Renault (wow funny how things change), dumping that supply on Toro Rosso instead. I seem to remember a few heated words back then. But also their attitude to engine suppliers in general. I seem to remember them never giving Cosworth any credit in 2005 despite what I suspect was a very potent and reliable engine, I'd say a big factor in enabling them to have the relatively successful year they had.

But then, works Ferraris would also be good for Ricciardo and Kvyat's sake and of course it would set up a tantalising prospect of even a 3 way title battle between 6 (psst, 5!!) drivers, such as in that Grand Prix 2 simulation I ran before 2014 started (I'm so fond of that season still).

But the biggest reason I would want works Engines is for Toro Rosso! I would love to see what that chassis would do next year with a top engine and 2 drivers who will be faster and more experienced than this year!

The 2015 Ferrari unit is said to be worth about a second per lap over the 2014 version, which was pretty equivalent to Renault's 2014, so I guess it would be some improvement for Red Bull.


Yup something's wrong with F1 alright, with both those drivers out of a seat.

[Mia 01]

Not that bad to get 2015 spec Ferrari Engines i guess. They are more or less on par with the Mercedes one now, perhaps 20 hp down. On the other hand is the Renualt Engines rumoured to be 80 - 100 hp down on Mercedes. I don´t Think that the manufactures will find 50 hp more till next year.

[zako85]

If Grosjean is really better than Maldonado, then why didn't Lotus hire Romain for another year?

[rjbetty]

If Grosjean is really better than Maldonado, then why didn't Lotus hire Romain for another year?

I think it was Romain who wanted to leave. I guess he realised he would have been driving with Renault engines again next year and did a runner.

He's also doing a Hulkenberg and trying to advertise himself to Ferrari, but it's a risky strategy at best and didn't work out for Hulk. Also I think Ferrari have their sights set on other drivers such as Verstappen who is 11 years younger...

[Robinho]

If Grosjean is really better than Maldonado, then why didn't Lotus hire Romain for another year?
Lotus can't hire anyone, they have no money, they've kept Maldonado because he comes with money. If Renault had finished the buyout Romain would have stayed, but he couldn't wait for that to happen for certain so made the choice to move to a team who could afford to pay him and might lead to a Ferrari seat in the future

Sent from my 0PJA10 using Tapatalk

[Nitrodaze]

Not that bad to get 2015 spec Ferrari Engines i guess. They are more or less on par with the Mercedes one now, perhaps 20 hp down. On the other hand is the Renualt Engines rumoured to be 80 - 100 hp down on Mercedes. I don´t Think that the manufactures will find 50 hp more till next year.

To be honest, l think Mercedes have been turning their engine horsepower down at most races and only turning it up when they really need to. The dead give away was at Monza when Hamilton was instructed to pull a 30 sec gap to Vettel for fear that they would be time penalized for low tyre pressure. With under 10 laps to the end, Hamilton simply flew off into the distance, leaving Vettel completely dejected at the pace of the Merc at the end of the race. The truth is that the Ferrari engine is not on par with the merc at full power. Malaysia, Hungary and Suzuka are misleading as they were tyre related problems for the Mercedes setup. But l fully expect Ferrari to be much closer in 2016.

2016 Constructors' Championship may look like this:

1.Mercedes
2.Ferrari
3.Red Bull - Ferrari
4.Williams - Mercedes
5.McLaren - Honda
6.Renault
7.Toro Rosso - Ferrari
8.Force India - Mercedes
9.Sauber - Ferrari
10.Manor - Mercedes
11.Haas - Ferrari

The Honda showed at Suzuka that it is fast enough to be comfortably in the midfields but runs out of puff before the end of the straight. If they can sort out the issues with their energy recovery and power boost issues and maybe find a few more HP for the start of the 2016 season, then l expect Alonso and Button to comfortably be in the top ten consistently. Finishing no less than 5th in 2016 should be the target for Mclaren in 2016 and is achievable.

I think Renault have a very good understanding of the issue with their engine, hence l expect them to come up with a fix for 2016. Hence a HP increase is very likely in the Renault next season. The Lotus chassis is clearly great this year and it really harnessed the Mercedes power very effectively. That chassis coupled to a revised Renault engine may surprise a few in 2016. Finishing 6th would depend largely on who they pick to replace Grosjean. With Verne or Magnussen in the 2nd Renault seat and Maldonado having a cleaner better year, l would think they may pull it off.

I agree a Ferrari shod Redbull may leapfrog the Williams to 3rd, judging by the gap between Ferrari and Williams this season. The Williams chassis is inferior compared to the Redbull chassis, hence it is unlikely to harness the Mercedes power as efficiently as the Redbull chassis would harness the power of the Ferrari. I actually think the Redbull chassis is better than the Ferrari chassis. Hence if Redbull were to get a similar spec engine to the Ferrari team, they may well finish 2nd in 2016. I have a feeling Ferrari would not allow that.

The Force India chassis has proved to be up and down at various tracks so far. they may get it right next season. But going by this season, l would expect them to finish behind the Torro Rosso which has a clearly better chassis. The Torro Rosso chassis was better than the Redbull chassis for most of the early part of this season and remains almost as good as the sister car's chassis. I doubt the Force India would surpass the Torro Rosso next season, assuming of course that Torro Rosso have better reliability than they had this season.

Lack of investment in the Sauber means they are likely to remain at 9th next season, unless they are able to find a sponsor with deep pocket before the end of this season. They would still be fast enough not to worry about Haas and Manor behind.

There are great hopes for Haas to turn up and do very well with their Ferrari technical partnership and engine. It would certainly be great for the FIA and Bernie. They certainly seem to have more funds than Manor. Unfortunately lack in relative experience of the car and operating within F1. Hence l would expect 2016 to be a year where they find their feet and consolidate for 2017. Hence l expect them to finish the year at the rear which is no shame for a maiden year under the most restrictive F1 regulations in years.

[rjbetty]

I had previously thought 2016 wouldn't see much change, and it would be a boring silly season. But having thought about it there could be plenty of scope for things to look a lot different next year.

We have the threat of Red Bull leaving
Senior people like Bernie seem to think this is serious. If it happened it would make the competitive order a lot different, plus cause big chain reactions with drivers etc. Somehow I can't quite see this crazy scenario quite coming to pass, but stranger things have happened.

Renault re-buying Lotus:
Tbh the thought of Renault plunging in a huge budget similar to Ferrari, Red Bull and Mercedes just doesn't ring true to me. I think Jens said it very well when he said it would be more like a 2010 level of commitment, sort of semi-works. It would secure Enstone's immediate future and they would be in a better place than they are now, but I can't see how wins and titles can be anywhere on the horizon in the near-future.

The only hope is that Renault have been holding back on their engine and have good improvements planned. But it was said last year that Renault would be better for 2015... If the engine is still as far off the pace, I can't see them finishing higher than 9th, or 7th if they bag a couple of lucky results to be ahead of Sauber, and McLaren still struggle. In the worst case, they could even fall behind Haas.

Haas
Speaking of whom, Haas could possibly be ready to score a fair few points if their extra preparation pays off. I think back to Sauber in 2003, who gained a full Ferrari engine and gearbox etc combo, with people such as f1-rejects (I miss them) suggesting they could fight with the big boys. It didn't happen as their aero was mediocre (this was pre-factory upgrade).

The only thing that could really hold Haas back is Dallara. They designed the HRT's, but this was with much less resources? Maybe they can do a better job now but I still don't rate them. Reynard had a fantastic pedigree but sucked at F1 with BAR.

McLaren-Honda
Thinking about the engine token rules, my understanding is they decrease every year, thus the scope for engine improvement shrinks continuously. It seems then that the really big improvements simply HAVE to be made next year, or else. Their only hope then would be for a revamp in token rules (could happen) or else they're stuffed till 2020 - by which time Alonso will be 38 and Button will be 40!!

It looks then, that they simply MUST do a Ferrari in 2016 - a decent moderate improvement simply will not do.




Team Finances and Testing
Money woes caused Force India to have to miss much of pre-season testing this year, the same happening to Lotus in 2014 IIRC. This severely hampered their early season. Thing I have to ask is, why should it be any different next year?

[AndyL]

Thinking about the engine token rules, my understanding is they decrease every year, thus the scope for engine improvement shrinks continuously. It seems then that the really big improvements simply HAVE to be made next year, or else. Their only hope then would be for a revamp in token rules (could happen) or else they're stuffed till 2020 - by which time Alonso will be 38 and Button will be 40!!


Yes the tokens go as follows (it was 32 for this year):
2016: 25
2017: 20
2018: 15
2019: 3
2020: 3
All unchanged in the draft 2016 regs, but from some of the interviews at Suzuka it sounds like this is still under discussion.

There are some additional items that are frozen for next year - mainly cylinder bore position and dimensions, and items to do with valve drive (though not the valves themselves). Frozen items are the same again for 2017, then for 2018 a few new items are frozen: more valve elements, crankshaft and oil pumps. The big change comes in 2019 when everything is completely frozen except turbo inlet, the engine electrical system and the ERS wiring loom.

It seems like Honda's main problem is in the hybrid systems. They could change the entire turbo including inlet and outlet manifolds, the MGU-H, MGU-K, ERS electronics and cooling, and the energy store for 22 points.

[jens]

Some of you are so busy writing stuff up I am struggling to keep up with you guys.:p:

There is one thing I recommend though - start a new 2016 prediction thread!

[Rollo]

http://www.lotusf1team.com/news-archive/move-on-up/
Move On Up!
Jolyon Palmer announced as race driver for 2016


Speculation: Lotus will be bought by Renault and the Black Maldonado team will become the Yellow Maldonado team.

Task: I've spilled speculation all over the floor - someone get a mop and bucket.

[rjbetty]

http://www.lotusf1team.com/news-archive/move-on-up/
Move On Up!
Jolyon Palmer announced as race driver for 2016


Speculation: Lotus will be bought by Renault and the Black Maldonado team will become the Yellow Maldonado team.

Task: I've spilled speculation all over the floor - someone get a mop and bucket.

Wow flippin 'eck I weren't expecting that. While I'm happy enough, I will be very disappointed that Kevin Magnussen or Jean-Eric Vergne will have been passed over for that seat - I think they are more deserving...

Good, I think we need a good bit of yellow - a great chance for an interesting livery. However, I bet it will look pants like most liveries these days rather than something cool like 15-20yrs ago. Come on Renault, you have a chance to bring back the Forti yellow to the grid!



EDIT: Autosport are reporting Palmer's confirmation of a race seat too, so seems legit. TBH I feel a bit disappointed someone else didn't get it but oh well, I will support him and hope he does well. As a rookie he will also prove more reachable for Haas and Manor, slightly increasing their hope of some points.

[Rollo]

I would like to see something like this:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ef/Renault_RS01_Donington_Arnoux_2007.jpg

I could very well be wrong but I think that the singing of Jolyon Palmer shows that they must've secured some sort of funding for next year and the only real way i see that happening is if Renault bought them

[EightGear]

They secured funds BY signing Palmer most probably...

[Duncan]

http://www.lotusf1team.com/news-archive/move-on-up/
Move On Up!
Jolyon Palmer announced as race driver for 2016


Speculation: Lotus will be bought by Renault and the Black Maldonado team will become the Yellow Maldonado team.

Task: I've spilled speculation all over the floor - someone get a mop and bucket.

Great news - thanks for sharing. It seems like there are many talented drivers chasing too few seats these days.

[jens]

Talent-wise Palmer is pretty much in the Maldonado-range (well, not speaking about crashes!). He hanged around forever in GP2 and finally won the series by beating everyone with experience.

So in my book 2016 Renault/Lotus driver line-up is pretty much up there or should I say down there with Sauber, so considering the team is in a state of re-building anyway, they don't have a driver to wring the speed out of the machinery either.

[AndyL]

EDIT: Autosport are reporting Palmer's confirmation of a race seat too, so seems legit.

I'm not sure I'd rate Autosport any more "legit" than the official announcement on the team's own web site, but FWIW Sky have reported it too and interviewed Jolyon Palmer about it, so yes it definitely seems legit :)

One good thing about it is that a GP2 champion has been able to graduate to F1 again. The last few years there seems to have been a bit of a roadblock of pay drivers preventing drivers who've "qualified" through the top feeder series from finding F1 seats.

[jens]

Actually Palmer is every bit of a paydriver, considering how influential his father is in the British motorsport scene. Palmer is a bit like Max Chilton with a GP2 title. And it was only 4th GP2 season in which Jolyon was finally competitive.

[rjbetty]

Haas to confirm second driver in Mexico, also saying "I think you can work that one out".

http://planetf1.com/news/haas-to-name-second-driver-in-mexico/

(The No.1 site for recycled F1 news)

And also, Gutierrez has been saying how Sauber was "wrong place, wrong time", basically sounding as though he's about to take on a new project.


This leaves just the 2 Manor seats then, with Pascal Wehrlein expected in one. Pity K-Mag or JEV probably won't get it as I'd love to see what Manor could do with an experienced driver. Would probably be the difference between a championship position, or even two. Shame about needing a driver with money (just to survive)...

[steveaki13]

Good news for Palmer. Whether or not he will get anywhere is another thing.

I will be glad to see a new face and wish him well.

Nice to see drivers lined up early. As you say, just Manor to confirm and with Mercedes engines they may tag on the back of the field and have more fun.

[jens]

Pity K-Mag or JEV probably won't get it as I'd love to see what Manor could do with an experienced driver. Would probably be the difference between a championship position, or even two. Shame about needing a driver with money (just to survive)...

For me the biggest travesty is that Vandoorne is without a seat. If even the brightest talents of junior categories can't get seats any more, where have we got?

Meanwhile drivers like Räikkönen and Massa can basically hang onto top seats forever...

Needless to say, I am not a fan of such things at all.

There needs to be a bit of a clean-up during the next F1 silly season, whatever this clean-up contains.

[CNR]

could redbull have a Ilmor engine
http://www.skysports.com/f1/news/12433/10045411/a
" Another British firm, Ilmor, is an obvious contender given they currently manufacturer a similar 2.2-litre unit in IndyCar. The company, co-founded by Mario Illien, originally produced Mercedes' F1 engines on the German manufacturer's return to the sport in the 1990s and have (more recently been used by Red Bull to try and help Renault find a still-elusive breakthrough in this latest era.")

[rjbetty]

BREAKING NEWS!

John Booth and Graeme Lowdon resign from Manor.

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/121575
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/34682961


Grumpy Joe (lol) is reporting it too and goes into a bit more detail (speculation?)

https://joesaward.wordpress.com/

I'm absolutely gutted. ;(



And in other news, Force India look set to become Aston Martin Racing in 2016! Only seeing it on Autosport at the mo tho.

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/121578

If you can't get past Auto's restricted views, planetf1 are doing their thing, posting it second-hand

http://planetf1.com/news/force-india-to-be-rebranded-as-aston-martin/

[jens]

Aston Martin? Wow.

Reminds a bit, when Sahara became a sponsor and IIRC even co-owner of Force India back in 2012. It was expected to be a financial boost for the team, but Roy Sahara went to jail later on...

Anyways, I guess Aston Martin's sponsorship may be only kind-of-minor, but I guess any money helps Force India at this stage.