What do you expect from 2014?

[Brown, Jon Brow]

With big changes to the engine regs next year the big question for me is whether Red Bull will continue their dominance.

The general feeling is that next year the engine will be more important than the aero. But with the extra cooling requirements of the turbo and the KERS packaging the cars will be the biggest challenge. This is something Newey is generally very good at, but a few times (particularly in his McLaren days) he had gone a bit too extreme.

The biggest advantage of the Red Bull over the past few years has been the exhaust blown diffuser. But this is going to be impossible next season, so we should see the Red Bull reined in a bit. I still think they have the best technical team in F1 so they will still be in the mix.

Renault versus Mercedes versus Ferrari will be the deciding factor. I think one of these will get a head start over the others. Some are predicting that the massive R&D capabilities of Shell will help Ferrari get the most out of their engine. More so than the Mercedes/Petronas partnership, but what experience to Ferrari have with V6 engines?

[steveaki13]

I can see Newey hitting a sweet spot again and Red Bull being very strong, however I really hope someone else can win the titles next year.

Most of all I want to see a close battle for the championship, the only thing that often plays against title winning teams is their comparative lack of time to get a head start, but really Red Bull have known the championships were theirs for a couple of months.

[dj_bytedisaster]

Renault versus Mercedes versus Ferrari will be the deciding factor. I think one of these will get a head start over the others. Some are predicting that the massive R&D capabilities of Shell will help Ferrari get the most out of their engine. More so than the Mercedes/Petronas partnership, but what experience to Ferrari have with V6 engines?

They built V6 turbo engines in the 80s?

[anfield5]

Honestly, more of the same with a different noise.

Chances are RBR will still be at the top, Ferrari will be trying to catch up, hopefully with a car capable of competing (I'm not holding my breath though). Mercedes and the black mob will be towards the front as well. I expect McLaren to move back into contention and at least threaten to win the odd race.

I also expect a few mechanical issues with the engines in the early fly-away races, sure the little turbo things have been extensively tested but race conditions are different.

I would like to see Ricciardo get a strong start and push Vettel from time to time, but the biggest thing I want is for the idiot commentators to stop referring to Caterham and Marussia as the 'New" teams and using that tag to excuse their pitiful efforts at being F1 race teams. They have been in for 3 years and haven't ever looked like scrounging a single point. In their first year Sauber had 6 top six finishes and after 3 years had 23 top 6 finishes!

[N. Jones]

Right now I expect more of the same. :(

[Brown, Jon Brow]

What do we make of the rumours that the Mercedes V6 has 100bhp more than its rivals?

[henners88]

I think we'll see a fair few engine failures like we used to see in 2006 when the engines are being more thoroughly tested on mass.

[Firstgear]

A re-run of "The year of The Braun"

New regulations give the masters a chance to shine & jump ahead.

Newey ---> pushing the design envelope
Braun ---> pushing the regulation loophole envelope
The rest ---> scrambling to copy versions of the above two

Mercedes takes an early lead, with Redbull starting to reel them in in the second half of the season.
Hamilton & Mercedes take the championships.

[zako85]

What do we make of the rumours that the Mercedes V6 has 100bhp more than its rivals?


Perhaps there something that makes people believe that Mercedes has a better engine. However, 100hp is a pure speculation IMHO. Also, it's believed that the engines will rarely deliver their full output due to limited fuel flow. The gas tank size is reduced by one third. I am wondering if the engine that has the best fuel economy is going to be a winner. Another interesting challenge is supposedly rear tire management. The blown engine may end up having a lot more torque than current engines, so the rear tires will have to take more beating.

[zako85]

I am think the tiers will be like this:

Top tier:

Ferrari, Mercedes, Red Bull

Best of the rest tier:

Lotus, McLaren

Of course, anything can happen IMO.

[Mia 01]

Only five engines for the whole season and those are limited to 100l/h. Some engines will go kaboom very soon, probably the strongest ones, and then we have the DERS, CERS and the LERS fragile thing when they are put under pressure.

And thew we have the gearboxes, four I belive have to last the whose season.

Interesting times ahead next year.

[Storm]

I expect RBR to still be the top dog although a bit of a shake up should be on the cards. What I "hope" is an open championship and no one dominating like this year.

[555-04Q2]

I dream for a far more open season in 2014. But, reality may kick in early next year that RBR as still THAT good! Time will tell. As long as the mid fielders continue to dice the way they have been, I really don't mind who's dominating/winning at the front.

[henners88]

I fear Red Bull will come back as strong as ever but I hope to see a little more uncertainty from races. Mercedes may have produced the more powerful engine, however that is just a rumour. I just hope Red Bull have pushed far too much effort into getting this years title and left themselves short for next season. It would be nice to have a closer fight at the front or at least another driver on Vettel's level enjoying the spoils of success. We will see.

[airshifter]

I fully expect to see a "shuffling of the deck" if you will, as it pertains to both the drivers and the cars. Beyond the silly season driver line up changes, I think there is a very good chance that the learning curve of the new cars will suit some drivers better than others, as well as suit some designers over others.

It would seem that cooling will play a big part in the new car design, and we may see a situation where those pushing the envelope create cars with an aerodynamic advantage but also potentially cooling issues that result in car failures at times. Combined with the new version of KERS and the torque curves of the turbo engines, the drivers could well have their hands even more full than they do in todays cars.

No doubt as usual the cream will rise to the top, it just would not surprise me if the new formula produces some surprises.



It will probably be a great equalizer for the drivers new to a team, as the new cars will somewhat level the playing field for them adapting to the car. For Ricciardo this might provide some hope that his performance isn't entirely overshadowed by Sebastian. It wouldn't shock me to see either Kimi or Fred unhappy depending on who adapts quicker, ditto the other teams with very strong driver combos.

[jens]

I think in the beginning of the season we could see some upsets, while the ranking is going to normalize somewhat by the end of the year. Even in 2009 McLaren and Ferrari became regular podium contender by the end of the season again, while Brawn had lost its dominant edge.

Remember, how in 2012 Red Bull suddenly qualified on the third row in Oz, while they had been dominant the year before. But they became strong in the end again. We could get something like that again, but in a deeper way.

If Mercedes has a superior V6 turbo engine, maybe Mercedes will lock out the front row in Australia by the margin of a full second, like its predecessor Brawn did in Australia 2009. Depending on tyre management they may comfortably win the race again.

However, the big question is if Mercedes (and Ferrari) can gain a significant advantage over Red Bull-Renault early in the year to win the titles. Because historically RBR comes very strong late in the season, while Ferrari and Mercedes somewhat struggle to keep up the in-season development rate.

What do I expect from 2014? I do somewhat expect that for instance Mercedes can be lightning quick from the start of the year, while RBR could take its time, but it will be fascinating to see if and how RBR can catch up and maybe overtake.

---

However, it would be really good to finally see something new. It feels like I have been watching the same thing for four years already, F1 has become somewhat stale. RBR winning titles, Alonso competing for minor podiums, many line-ups of teams have been the same. Of course there have been some changes like Lotus getting a bit stronger over time and Mercedes/McLaren switching positions for this year, but generally the feel has been the same. Force India and Sauber are in midfield, STR gets points sometimes. Williams is very up-and-down, but somewher ein midfield. Marussia and Caterham constantly at the back.

However, for instance the feel and athmosphere of 2009 was different, it was the last truly different season. It was helped by the fact we had car manufacturers and hence different teams/competitiveness and a different competition aura.

Going further back, 2007 and 2008 had a similar feel to it. Likewise 1998-2000, 1994-1995, etc. But by now the current "state of affairs" throughout the field has lasted so long it has started to wear on me. For the second year in a row it is 1. Vettel, 2. Alonso, 3. Räikkönen, 4. Hamilton in WDC.

[henners88]

Remember, how in 2012 Red Bull suddenly qualified on the third row in Oz, while they had been dominant the year before. But they became strong in the end again. We could get something like that again, but in a deeper way.
I think the start of 2012 was very different to how the start of next season could be. We saw Red Bull struggle to get to the front row at the start of last year, but that was down to minor aero issues and the loss of exhaust blown diffusers (or was that this year?). Red Bull found their stride again, however the car was fundamentally the same development car from previous years whereas I think next year the variables are considerably different. Its a hard thing to call and some of us are going to be pleasantly surprised and some disappointed I feel. :)

[zako85]

In my view, in the last four seasons, the 2011 was the only true "stale" year. In 2011, only three teams were always on the podiums. Massa disappointed. Webber seriously disappointed (he couldn't even provide us with a two horse race for at least half of that year). Ferrari disappointed. Even Lotus and Mercedes could not break into top the 3 finish position. Only McLaren drivers occasionally showed a good fight with Vettel. Moreover, at the end of 2011, the top 3 teams announced that they will continue with the same driver lineups, the ones that didn't change since 2010, into 2012 season. Boooring, I thought. At least in 2012 and 2013, we saw a better scramble for the podium positions. I am glad that Lotus and Mercedes improved in 2012-2013, so there is a lot more excitement in the back of field, even if Vettel still wins most races.

[henners88]

In my view, in the last four seasons, the 2011 was the only true "stale" year. In 2011, only three teams were always on the podiums. Massa disappointed. Webber seriously disappointed (he couldn't even provide us with a two horse race for at least half of that year). Ferrari disappointed. Even Lotus and Mercedes could not break into top the 3 finish position. Only McLaren drivers occasionally showed a good fight with Vettel. Moreover, at the end of 2011, the top 3 teams announced that they will continue with the same driver lineups, the ones that didn't change since 2010, into 2012 season. Boooring, I thought. At least in 2012 and 2013, we saw a better scramble for the podium positions. I am glad that Lotus and Mercedes improved in 2012-2013, so there is a lot more excitement in the back of field, even if Vettel still wins most races.
Red Bull have just been the most consistent team all round for the past 4 years. They've delivered a car capable of winning and other than 2010, they've been pretty reliable, at least on Sebs side of the garage. No other team have come close in that regard. McLaren produced a car in 2012 that was very capable of winning the championship and I believe had Hamilton not retired from the lead on so many occasions, we'd have seen a different champion last season. Red Bull struggled early on, but consistency and steady development brought them out on top. 2011 was a dull year unless you were a Vettel fan I feel. It was a demonstration of how a team should perform and Vettel and his team did an amazing job. This year has seen a few different winners and pole positions have often gone to teams other than Red Bull, at least in the first half of the season, but we've seen the consistency of Red Bull come through and pipped everyone from the summer onwards. As Vettel says its a team effort and you can't point at one factor of its success. The likes of Ferrari, Mercedes, McLaren and Lotus need to deliver the car to their drivers firstly, and then match Red Bull in strategy, pit stops, and continued development. They are the kings of that at the moment and the rest have a lot to worry about going into next year.

I think we need a shake up at the front desperately.

[rjbetty]

In truth I really don't expect the new regs to change things that much. I do not expect another 2009.

For those hoping for a closer season, I do not forsee this: I expect the gaps to probably open out between teams as they did in 2011, 1998, 2001, 2002 etc.

As for Ferrari, I currently see no reason why they will fully make up that deficit to Red Bull. I feel both 2013 Ferrari drivers while still right up there are now past their best. Fernando may actually have a bad season while team favour goes to Kimi. I have no doubt though that Fernando at his best would utterly cream Kimi anyplace, anytime. I have found in my 15 years of F1 that reality often quashes hopes. Hoping things will be different simply because it's a new season simply doesn't do.

The way Ferrari are run seems wrong and "unprofessional" compared to Red Bull. I see no reason why they will surpass Red Bull next year, so it may be a season of their drivers fighting for 4ths and 5ths with wins being pretty sparse.

However, there may be a little unreliability next season, maybe even 2010 levels or higher! Perhaps Marussia or Caterham can finally get a point with a more experienced Bianchi and hopefully Kovalainen possibly returning! On the other hand, they mall fall further than ever off the pace as it becomes clear in todays harsh economy, just remaining and establishing themselves has been the biggest achievement.


In short, I expect a 2 horse race between Red Bull and Mercedes
Ferrari some way behind
McLaren maybe up with Ferrari. Don't forget the team had marginally the quickest car overall (in qualifying at least) as recently as 2012. They messed up fundamentally with this years car and can surely correct at least some of that.
Lotus, regardless of any investment don't seem to be bursting with money and resources.
Sauber could well impress at times next year. Look how they are recovering from a dreadful season. It shows they have inherent quality and I think Hulkenberg would be mad to go back to Force India only to find they do badly while Sauber do well again!
Force India have impressed me by always being thereabouts, which seems to be the result of a good infrastructure for their size.
Williams with Mercedes engines may recover to a slightly better season than this year, scoring a lot more points, but no big leaps forward.
Toro Rosso may struggle with their rookie. I don't know if Vergne will be motivated seeing Ricciardo in that Red Bull.
Caterham and Marussia to not close the gap and maybe fall even more off the pace...

[AndyL]

What do we make of the rumours that the Mercedes V6 has 100bhp more than its rivals?

Given that they're all working within the same, very prescriptive technical regs and the same laws of physics, this seems very unlikely to me.

I seem to recall this rumour emerged at around the same time there was a debate going on about what the teams wanted from Pirelli in 2014. My wild speculation is that this rumour was a play in that game: "if you give Mercedes what they're asking for on the tyres, then the championship will be no contest because they have the best engine too."

[555-04Q2]

What do we make of the rumours that the Mercedes V6 has 100bhp more than its rivals?

Given that they're all working within the same, very prescriptive technical regs and the same laws of physics, this seems very unlikely to me.

I seem to recall this rumour emerged at around the same time there was a debate going on about what the teams wanted from Pirelli in 2014. My wild speculation is that this rumour was a play in that game: "if you give Mercedes what they're asking for on the tyres, then the championship will be no contest because they have the best engine too."

I tend to agree and disagree with you. While the teams are working under the same strict regulations, turbocharged engines offer a lot more opportunities for teams to get more efficiency and more power than their opposition may do. NA engines as we have had are limited by the number of cylinders vs rpm limit vs bore + stroke limitations placed on them which is the same for all teams. There is not much room for making hige strides over the opposition.

Turbocharged engines however, can have quite a significant difference in output depending on the turbo spooling and especially if one team has a better inter-cooling system than the others do.

I doubt it is as high as 100 BHP more than the others, but it is very possible for it to be significant enough that they have a decent advantage in the power stakes.

[Mia 01]

For all what we know of it could be Ferrari or Renualt that got the best engine package. Theres alot of rumours floating around.

[Tazio]

I'm calling Shenanigans on this rumor. I don't believe some teams are paying a premium for MHPE-engines that have 20% more Bhp than the others for a minute, when the Renault is good enough for Red Bull. :dozey:

[steveaki13]

I agree Doc.

I think its highly unlikely that a engine manufacturer could have built an engine so much more powerful than other top engine manufacturers. Why would the others not be able to design an engine almost the same.

Doesn't ring true.

[555-04Q2]

I agree Doc.

I think its highly unlikely that a engine manufacturer could have built an engine so much more powerful than other top engine manufacturers. Why would the others not be able to design an engine almost the same.

Doesn't ring true.

Well if someone develops a better cooling system it is possible. Not sure on how the regs restrict radiators, intercoolers etc for 2014, but a good cooling system alone can have an effect as high as 10% - 20% if not more on the performance of a turbocharged engine.

[AndyL]

Well if someone develops a better cooling system it is possible. Not sure on how the regs restrict radiators, intercoolers etc for 2014, but a good cooling system alone can have an effect as high as 10% - 20% if not more on the performance of a turbocharged engine.

Would 20% be the difference between an intercooler and no intercooler, or between a good one and a very good one? I think we can assume that none of the engine-makers are going to come up with a really poor design.

[555-04Q2]

Well if someone develops a better cooling system it is possible. Not sure on how the regs restrict radiators, intercoolers etc for 2014, but a good cooling system alone can have an effect as high as 10% - 20% if not more on the performance of a turbocharged engine.

Would 20% be the difference between an intercooler and no intercooler, or between a good one and a very good one? I think we can assume that none of the engine-makers are going to come up with a really poor design.

I agree that they shouldn't come up with poor designs, these guys are pro's with bucket loads of money to throw at R&D work. But I do have some experience with turbocharged engines. Efficient cooling is a very important part of getting a turbocharged engine to deliver it's power, especially on warmer days and under extended periods of hard driving. Small changes in the design of the intake and cooling systems application can have huge effects on the overall performance of a turbocharged car.