Silly Season

[jarrambide]

Who, with whom, and how good will they be.

[Jonesi]

Who, with whom, and how good will they be.

Best guess so far. It will probably be Penske leading, with AGR, Ganassi & Rahal fighting for second.
14 DARREN MANNING A J FOYT RACING ABC SUPPLY CO
11 TONY KANAAN ANDRETTI / GREEN 7-ELEVEN PEPSI
26 MARCO ANDRETTI ANDRETTI / GREEN NYSE
27 DARIO FRANCHITTI ANDRETTI / GREEN KLEIN TOOLS / CanClb
7 DANICA PATRICK ANDRETTI / GREEN MOTOROLA
10 DAN WHELDON GANASSI TARGET
9 SCOTT DIXON GANASSI TARGET
4 VITOR MEIRA PANTHER REVIVE
55 KOSUKE MATSUURA PANTHER PANASONIC / ARTA
6 SAM HORNISH JR PENSKE RACING MOBIL1
3 HELIO CASTRONEVES PENSKE RACING MOBIL1
8 SCOTT SHARP RAHAL-LETTERMAN PATRON SPIRITS
17 JEFF SIMMONS RAHAL-LETTERMAN ETHANOL
2 TOMAS SCHECKTER VISION RACING VISION RACING
20 ED CARPENTER VISION RACING ROCK & REPUBLIC

[jarrambide]

No Buddy Rice?

[Alexamateo]

I heard somewhere Delphi was now going to be with Vitor and Panther. Is that true?

[Mark in Oshawa]

Buddy should get a ride, the guy is a 500 winner for crying out loud, but I guess that puts paid to the fact that you are as only as good as your last race...

[indycool]

Rumors around Indy are Rice possibly in a third Vision car.......and that Rahal-Letterman may still run a third if things come together.

[DRC]

Best guess so far. It will probably be Penske leading, with AGR, Ganassi & Rahal fighting for second.

I still think it'll be a two team chase (Penske and CGR), but I think we'll see more wins from AGR and maybe a win or two from Rahal and (hopefully) one for Vitor.

[Jonesi]

I still think it'll be a two team chase (Penske and CGR), but I think we'll see more wins from AGR and maybe a win or two from Rahal and (hopefully) one for Vitor.

That's not very far at all from my thinking. In '05 Penske & Ganassi teams were off in power, so they developed the chassis, when AGR didn't need to. I'm sure AGR has plans to catch up and will this off season. RLR had the trama of Dana death, and that takes months if not a whole year to recover.

[DocF225]

I think AGR will be in a "rebuilding" state this year. I know they're looking to TK to "mentor" Marco and Danica and DF's health might be a question mark.

If the media frenzy surrounding Danica dies down and the the team is allowed to operate without the constant barrage of non racing media attention, they could contend.

But the teams to beat will be Penske and Gnassi.

[Bbaker]

Sounds about like the last couple of year, but without the rookies that made such a large impact. Any of those going to get a shot with a good team?

[wastegate]

Not IRL news, but hearing Ganassi is rumored to be entering the IPS with a two car team, the only details I have heard is one driver is signed and they are still waiting on the second.

[weeflyonthewall]

Not IRL news, but hearing Ganassi is rumored to be entering the IPS with a two car team,.....

The key teams have to answer the bell and boost the IPS grid.

[ChampUSfan]

RLR had the trama of Dana death, and that takes months if not a whole year to recover.

You are right. They will suffer the same, like when Ganassi lost Tony Renna in 2003. They had to wait until Watkins 2005 to see Scott Dixon win the first race for the team since Tony's death.

RIP Paul Dana

[turbo-engine]

Not IRL news, but hearing Ganassi is rumored to be entering the IPS with a two car team, the only details I have heard is one driver is signed and they are still waiting on the second.

http://www.indycar.com/news/story.php?story_id=7951

Now it's not a rumor any longer.......

[E5C4P3]

There are now 16 cars. How will the IRL get more permanent cars? How many will there be?

4 AGR
3 Vision
2 Penske
2 TCG
2 Rahal
2 Panther
1 Foyt

[Jonesi]

I think DRYER & REINBOLD is the only decent team not committed (and may be playing CC off IRL to get the best deal). I think Roth is suppose to attempt the whole series.
At this point I think TG will write as many checks as needed to get to 18 cars then stop, and start working on getting an extra 15 cars for Indy.

[Mark in Oshawa]

Maybe Dryer & Reinbold wont run IRL or CCWS next year. At some point, they have to make up their mind and maybe the lack of money is the key factor.

[Davedigler2004]

Engine leases this year are dramatically cheaper this year as well.

[Mark in Oshawa]

Starter, they really must be broke then. They have IRL cars and engine leases are cheaper, so to not have announced something by now says to me not all is well.

[indycool]

Mark, it well could be they've decided what they want to do and are trying to find money. It sure wouldn't be the first time THAT ever happened.

[indycool]

True, Starter, but say a team could get a used Dallara roller for $75-100,000 and an engine lease from Honda comparable to Cosworth compared to $300,000 for a NEW car with CC to go racing, when you talk about backups and the like, there's a difference in cost this year to go racing.

[indycool]

Agree, but it's probably a half-million dollar item-plus for a couple cars and spares. For a smaller team, that's pretty good-sized dollars.

[Mark in Oshawa]

I suspect unless they get a driver who brings a sponsor, they don't have the dough to even start the season in theory. Yet another victim of the open wheeled wars....

[Quetch]

My guess

Penske: Hornish, Castroneves
Ganassi: Wheldon, Dixon
AGR: Kanaan, Andretti, Franchitti, Patrick
Panther: Matsuura, Meira
Rahal: Sharp, Simmons
Foyt: Manning
Vision: Scheckter, Carpenter, Foyt
Cahill: Mitrisin, Duno
D&R: Fisher? Rice? Camara?
Fernandez: Chesson?

[Rimrider]

My guess

Penske: Hornish, Castroneves
Ganassi: Wheldon, Dixon
AGR: Kanaan, Andretti, Franchitti, Patrick
Panther: Matsuura, Meira
Rahal: Sharp, Simmons
Foyt: Manning
Vision: Scheckter, Carpenter, Foyt
Cahill: Mitrisin, Duno
D&R: Fisher? Rice? Camara?
Fernandez: Chesson?

Is there any truth to the rumor that Rice stopped by R-L and picked up his old seat and dropped it off at D&R?

[Jag_Warrior]

True, Starter, but say a team could get a used Dallara roller for $75-100,000 and an engine lease from Honda comparable to Cosworth compared to $300,000 for a NEW car with CC to go racing, when you talk about backups and the like, there's a difference in cost this year to go racing.

I thought for 2007, the Honda lease alone was almost $900,000. Have they gotten it down lower than that for the coming season?

If that's in the ballpark, the CCWS lease (chassis, engine and tires) for $1 million, would seem to be a pretty cost effective way to go.

My guess is the IRL will begin announcing a lease deal soon. There are already apparently some "lease" deals in in the IRL. But my guess is, they'll make them more formal (and public) fairly soon.

[indycool]

Jag, I think there were lease deals in the IRL at the start back in the '90s with the new cars and I think there are probably lease deals plus "you-break-it-you-fix-it" deals between regular series teams and one-offs for Indy, in addition to whatever the engine lease might be (that was reported to drop dramatically for Indy one-offs last year).

An IRL deal for a used roller being less, the engine lease being a little more and tires probably the same might make the deals pretty comparable. I hadn't heard the $900,000 figure from Honda before. Only thing I'd heard was "less than a million," so I don't know any more about that.

[weeflyonthewall]

The car & motor are the smaller parts of a season. Spares, tires, crew, transporter, travel costs, shop, etc. etc. make up the larger part. Those would be more or less equal across both series. So, basically, the only place the IRL has a (cost) leg up is the chassis itself - assuming a used one of course.

Spares have always been a bigger part of the budget, especially on ovals. You can lose three corners quickly. Without ovals, CC has put itself in a much better operating cost position. In a new chassis year that is very important, it will mean less shortages of critical parts, even cheap ones that were initially overlooked.

[indycool]

weefly, they don't knock corners off at concrete canyons?

[Indy500'79]

Sounds like they will scrape the 18 together - maybe even 20 overall if Cahill is for real.

[weeflyonthewall]

weefly, they don't knock corners off at concrete canyons?

Besides running much slower, concrete canyons have a lot of tire walls and run-offs to minimize damage or did you conveniently forget.

[indycool]

A knocked-off corner is a knocked-off corner and there are VERY few runoffs at concrete canyons, they are extremely tight so any wheel-to-wheel contact on an attempted pass is likely to wall one car, the other or both and just how many full-course cautions do you see on a street course because they crash in dangerous areas?

[indycool]

I can't remember the last time an accident got all FOUR corners...in either series.

[weeflyonthewall]

Brack and Briscoe? Legge at Road America last year.

[indycool]

Okay, good points, weefly......wasn't thinking of flips, just of general wallpoppers, but you're right......

[Mark in Oshawa]

Hey, I figure tubs get cracked beyond repair hitting things at 180 to 220 mph.....no one gets that kind of speed up on a street race and hits much....

[Jonesi]

You've forgotten Krosnoff at Toronto.

and Clay Regazzoni at Long Beach in '80.

[Mark in Oshawa]

No, but for every Krosnoff and Regga, how many serious injuries or death's are there on ovals? My point was/is that tubs get a lot more stress in accidents on ovals. No one needs to remind me of the horror of Krosnoff's wreck, I was there!

I do NOT appreciate people insinuating I don't know what I am talking about. Hell boys, it is an opinion factory, not a court of law. It is MY opinion that tubs on ovals are more likely to be written off than crashes on street tracks. For every wreck like Krosnoff's, there are 100 where the corners are damaged a little. Smacking a wall at 160 or better which is better than half of the IRL accidents is going to tear up more than one corner, sometimes all four and crack tubs...you disagree? Fine....that is your right, but common sense dictates otherwise. I watch the IRL, I just don't talk about it....just as I watch CCWS street races, and if they don't wreck more tubs on the IRL, then those Dallara's are tougher than an old steak....

[grungex]

It is MY opinion that tubs on ovals are more likely to be written off than crashes on street tracks.

I'd say your opinion is pretty much fact.

[indycool]

Yes, Mark, I agree about TUBS being written off with high-speed crashes. My point was that there are a lot of small one-corner-knocked-off crashes on street courses than ovals. If you knock a corner off, it's $50-100,000. So, 3-6 corners equals one tub or total. There are MANY more of those corners than tubs on concrete canyons.

[grungex]

My point was that there are a lot of small one-corner-knocked-off crashes on street courses than ovals.

A true statement, but rather disingenuous. Like-for-like an oval crash will almost always be more expensive.

Your damage estimates for one corner being knocked off are rather pessimistic. Or is it optimistic? Depends on your agenda, I suppose.

[indycool]

Sure, agree on big oval crashes are going to cost more., I said so. Nothing disingenuous about it. Wasn't intending for the statement to be pessimistic or optimistic.

[grungex]

$50-100K for a street race corner crunch is not realistic.

[indycool]

Go ask a team.

[indycool]

Yes, that's my point. Had a friend pull a wrecked nosecone out of a dumpster once as a souvenir. Crewman saw him do it, told him it used to be worth $25,000.

[grungex]

A front wing on a Lola costs even more, but rarely are they ruined beyond repair in the type of incidents you are referring to. $100k, or even $50k, is a ludicrous estimate for some wishbones and a wing repair. If you're going to start with bad data, or extrapolate from selected incidents, then of course you can reach pretty much any conclusion you like.

[indycool]

Grungex, if they're "crunched," they're throwaways.

[Mark in Oshawa]

I was given bad rep for my post stating what I thought on oval wrecks, yet it appears, it wasn't any of you guys.....oh well, carry on, it proves some of you will debate and accept my points in the spirit of debate.

The thing is IC, you say cars get smashed more on Street tracks, but I suspect most of the damage is to A arms and suspension bits. I don't really think I can say with any authority that they are cheaper than some body parts, but I do know when you smack the wall at Michigan, the car is done for likely a long time. CCWS cars are usually fixed up by the next session if not 30 mins later. I would have to think if you can fix it fast, the cost is likely less....even if you do it more often, I still think cracked monocoques require more than just replacing a few bits.....

[indycool]

Oh, sure, Mark, if it "gets" the tub, it's much more expensive. I don't know what A arms, suspension pieces and the like cost, either, but I used the example I'd heard of a nose cone and that's take it off, write a $25,000 check and put a new one on.

[grungex]

Oh, sure, Mark, if it "gets" the tub, it's much more expensive. I don't know what A arms, suspension pieces and the like cost, either, but I used the example I'd heard of a nose cone and that's take it off, write a $25,000 check and put a new one on.

Only if it is destroyed, and that is rather less likely than you think. Wings/noses can usually be repaired, in Indy no less.

[pits4me]

Yes, Mark, I agree about TUBS being written off with high-speed crashes. My point was that there are a lot of small one-corner-knocked-off crashes on street courses than ovals. If you knock a corner off, it's $50-100,000. So, 3-6 corners equals one tub or total. There are MANY more of those corners than tubs on concrete canyons.

$50 to 100k to replace a nose, upper and lower arms? We're not talking F-1 here.

[bblocker68]

I would have to believe that a crashes an ovals would still be more expensive for one reason not said here. Usually racing on ovals and close quarters will result in multiple cars receiving damage. On a street circuit, the possibility of involving more than 2 cars at most is small. On an oval, a wreck in the middle of the pack can involve several cars, causing much more collateral damage. I know I strayed from the core matter, so I'll go creep back into my cave :)

[weeflyonthewall]

More than 2 cars bb? How many cars did Dominguez involve in that turn 1 incident at Long Beach. At least the DP01's will have starters. It's a bit off topic but new teams have to have the check book to race in a predominantly oval series. Damage does take a big bite out of their operating budget. What is a typical deductible these days, $45k?

[Mark in Oshawa]

Faster the accident, the greater the damage. Where are the high speeds? More on the ovals over 200mph, then on a street course where many of the corners are below 100mph. Regardless of the nature of the damage, A arms, halfshafts whatever, the potential damage is higher on an oval, hence the higher cost of damage. If I remember correctly, a thread on this topic was debating the cost of ovals in CART because of the potential for higher costs when teams were trying to control costs. I suspect it may be a factor in keeping the CCWS out of ovals right now actually......

[Mark in Oshawa]

Faster the accident, the greater the damage. Where are the high speeds? More on the ovals over 200mph, then on a street course where many of the corners are below 100mph. Regardless of the nature of the damage, A arms, halfshafts whatever, the potential damage is higher on an oval, hence the higher cost of damage. If I remember correctly, a thread on this topic was debating the cost of ovals in CART because of the potential for higher costs when teams were trying to control costs. I suspect it may be a factor in keeping the CCWS out of ovals right now actually......

[grungex]

$50-100K for a street race corner crunch is not realistic.


Go ask a team.

I did.

A pair of front wishbones and a track rod (the items usually damaged in a street race shunt) for a Lola will run you under $6K. If the front wing is destroyed beyond salvage (and that's a big if, because, in the type of crash under discussion, more often than not a knocked off wing is easily repaired), you're talking a bit over $25K.

Panoz DP-01 bits are a lot cheaper, wishbones and track rod will run you a little over $3K, front wing $16K.

[drewdawg727]

...isn't this the silly season thread? or are we discussing car parts?

[indycool]

Fine, grungex, I accept your research. And yes, Mark, oval "hits" create more damage, but there are fewer of them.

[bblocker68]

More than 2 cars bb? How many cars did Dominguez involve in that turn 1 incident at Long Beach. At least the DP01's will have starters. It's a bit off topic but new teams have to have the check book to race in a predominantly oval series. Damage does take a big bite out of their operating budget. What is a typical deductible these days, $45k?

LOL, I guess I forgot about "The Dominguez Factor". I remember his win in Australia had "The Big One" too. I'd still think that an accident with 5 cars running together on an oval in close quarters could cause more damage than CC's going into a tight turn on a street course. Before anyone says it, yes, I remember Long Beach last year too. That one hurt wallets across the board :)

[Mark in Oshawa]

IC....ya...I wouldn't want to see as many accidents on the ovals as there are on street courses....good lord it would get ugly, AND expensive....