The developing North Korea crisis

[Knock-on]

Is this just Sabre shaking by the North Koreans or are we on the bring of the most dangerous conflict since the 2nd world war?

[henners88]

I thought there was trouble when the US sent Dennis Rodman in.

[Knock-on]

I said years ago when Iran was supposed to be the big threat that Korea is more of a worry. I'm worried this may have come to the crunch.

It's possible that a new leader wants to make a point. It's equally possible that they may want to negiotiate from a position of potential conflict to strenghten their hand.

With recent missile tests and a bullish, confrontational stance with their strongest ally, things are starting to reach boiling point.

[airshifter]

I really don't see it as a crisis yet. They have been nutters for decades and will continue to be. It's unfortunate that they choose to mislead their people and shield them from the truth, as they have so much to gain if they would just stop the games and reap the benefits if they end the rabid dog approach they are taking.

[BDunnell]

I really don't see it as a crisis yet. They have been nutters for decades and will continue to be.

If they were 'nutters' — and it's easy to portray them as such — they would already have started a war. It's surely the fact that, despite the outwardly (to us) very strange nature of the North Korean leadership, there remains within it a modicum of sense that we haven't yet seen all the threats develop into actual conflict. Even the North Koreans realise they would potentially have too much to lose.

[Starter]

Even the North Koreans realise they would potentially have too much to lose.
Don't be too certain about that.

[BDunnell]

Don't be too certain about that.

Why have they never taken it to armed conflict since 1953, then?

[Mark]

Perhaps because they feel they have a more level playing field now they have nuclear weapons.

[Starter]

Perhaps because they feel they have a more level playing field now they have nuclear weapons.
Also a new leader who may or may not have a grasp on reality. They may also believe that with the current difficulties in Syria the US and other countries either don't have the capacity to respond or won't. Particularly since the American public is tired of wars after Iraq and Afghanistan.

[Storm]

Most dangerous since WWII? India and Pak have already been to war in '65 and '71..Much more recently a not so proper war in Kargil '99 and this was when both countries had professed to being nuclear powers!

As for North Korea, delusion is a word that comes to mind often.

[odykas]

http://allhatnocattle.net/George_Bush_Korea_Ban_Ki_Moon.jpg

[BDunnell]

Also a new leader who may or may not have a grasp on reality. They may also believe that with the current difficulties in Syria the US and other countries either don't have the capacity to respond or won't. Particularly since the American public is tired of wars after Iraq and Afghanistan.

And, more especially, while the US military is having its capabilities trimmed significantly as a result of sequestration.

[ioan]

China won't let them do anything. They'll take out Kim if he makes to much noise.

[D-Type]

Why have they never taken it to armed conflict since 1953, then?
But they have never agreed a peace treaty. They have continued to shoot people across the border plus shooting down the odd US aircraft

[Roamy]

they may be able to get on across the border to S Kor but there are so many antimissiles pointed at them, they would never get on out of the country.

[Rollo]

United States Forces Korea | U.S. B-2 bombers conduct extended deterrence mission to the Republic of Korea (http://www.usfk.mil/usfk/press-release.u.s.b.2.bombers.conduct.extended.deterrenc e.mission.to.the.republic.of.korea.1041)
This mission by two B-2 Spirit bombers assigned to 509th Bomb Wing, which demonstrates the United States’ ability to conduct long range, precision strikes quickly and at will, involved flying more than 6,500 miles to the Korean Peninsula, dropping inert munitions on the Jik Do Range, and returning to the continental U.S. in a single, continuous mission.

BBC News - North Korea 'readies rocket force' after US stealth flights (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21972936)
North Korea says it has put missile units on stand-by to attack US targets in response to US stealth bomber flights over the Korean peninsula.

I'm almost wondering if doing nothing at all is the best response that the US can do. Doing nothing doesn't necessarily enrage North Korea but flying missions with B-2s in the area might do.

[anthonyvop]

Saber rattling on the part of the North Koreans in order to get more concessions(Free Stuff) from the West. Perhaps Kim Jung Un wants free HBO?

[Mark]

You have to draw a balance. The bomber missions might generate rhetoric on their part but it also reminds them that South Korea isn't exactly defenceless.

[steveaki13]

Concerning certainly, but I wonder about their next move.

I mean the question is How much power does Kim-Jun-Un have? I mean according to sources that are not 100% he spent sometime outside North Korea and in Europe. Meaning he has spent some time outside the bizzare internal workings of North Korea.

Meaning he has seen the real world and knows how North Korea sits in it. Surely he must know that North Korea can not take on the US and that China wouldn't be willing to help if they did, as China has surely got too much to lose now.

So if he is leading these operations he is either insane or is only subject to the military leaders ideas.

So it really could have a major outcome as to what happens depending on who is running the show.

Also when Kim Jun Un first came in, their were remarks made about wanting to start talks with South Korea and the world. Where has that gone? Makes you wonder whether the military didnt like the way he was talking and so has put its collective boot down.

[Big Ben]

Most probably this is only meant to show the north koreans their young awesome beloved leader has cojones.

My question about the north korean people is whether the brain-washing process was that efficient or is the terror regime working so well? One thing is sure, whatever is the explanation the result is remarkable.

[Franky]

While I read the first few posts of this thread a segment from Iron Sky came to my mind - Iron Sky - North Korea Confess - YouTube (http://youtu.be/cezxIoUsfTk?t=10s)

I guess we have to wait and see how it progresses. All these totalitarian regimes are a bit unknown actors, you never know when they decide to make an odd move.

[BDunnell]

But they have never agreed a peace treaty. They have continued to shoot people across the border plus shooting down the odd US aircraft

Hence the phrase 'armed conflict'.

[BDunnell]

China won't let them do anything. They'll take out Kim if he makes to much noise.

I think there's probably at least a degree of truth in that.

[BDunnell]

Saber rattling on the part of the North Koreans in order to get more concessions(Free Stuff) from the West.

And there's probably truth in this, too.

[Spafranco]

Young Kimmy boy was probably indoctrinated by his father. He probably knows a smidgen of what the west is like and that SK is part of their country.
I hope that he is sabre rattling as any unilateral strike on SK would annihilate the regime of NK.
There is no hope for them and I agree with another poster who stated that the Chinese would not tolerate any warlike stance or showmanship.
The Chinese are smart enough to recognize that although they have an very strong economical stake with the US.

[ioan]

Young Kimmy boy was probably indoctrinated by his father. He probably knows a smidgen of what the west is like and that SK is part of their country.


He went to school in Switzerland, just for your knowledge, so he might know a thing or two about the world.

[steveaki13]

He went to school in Switzerland, just for your knowledge, so he might know a thing or two about the world.

Yep. Thats why I wonder how much of a supreme leader he is. I mean you have to think if he has anything about him after being in europe and seeing the real world, he must feel uneasy about all this knowing that they are picking fights they can not win and not like the poor everyday people who are told North Korea is paradise to the rest of the world.

Hence why I am sure the military have regular words (guns) in his ear.

[race aficionado]

Every time North Korea stats rattling their nuclear sword, I am reminded of this fact:


If you have nuclear capabilities, no one is going to mess with you - and in North Korea's case, specially if you are nuts.


North Korea obviously has them and we are constantly reminded of it. The US shows off it's stealth nuclear power, rattles his toys but nothing more than that can be done. Don't mess with countries that have nuclear capabilities and in this case, don't mess with crazy North Korea.


That is why other countries in sensitive areas also want their own Nuclear protective shield. Case in point, Iran. They also want that "I have nukes, don't mess with me' shield.
I don't think they would use it to destroy Israel unless they want us all to die - including them - in the most devastating and planet annihilating way. - but Iran may be nuts too, so basically we are screwed and can only hope for sanity and common sense when push comes to shove. ouch!


I don't approve nuclear power, I for one despise it, even on the energy providing field - but that's another topic.

[Spafranco]

He went to school in Switzerland, just for your knowledge, so he might know a thing or two about the world.

Thanks for that information. I was sitting comfortably here in LR when the father died and I thought no one could be as obtuse as him. Well he seems to have doubled up on idiocy.
Do the Europeans have the same fears as us?

[Spafranco]

Did anyone see 60mins a few months back about the guy that escaped from some sort of political indoctrination camp. I believe he accused his parents of informing on his upcoming plans to escape or they reported him.
He did escape and made it to China. We(US Government) had reservations about how he managed to make the arduous journey when he was only educated to a minimal level and no social skills maps( they found none) and he did this by crossing into China without being caught and then managed to get into SK without anyone seeing him.
Is he a spy?? Hmmmmm!! !

If I am correct on this, I believe he killed his parents.

[tfp]

If they were 'nutters' — and it's easy to portray them as such — they would already have started a war. It's surely the fact that, despite the outwardly (to us) very strange nature of the North Korean leadership, there remains within it a modicum of sense that we haven't yet seen all the threats develop into actual conflict. Even the North Koreans realise they would potentially have too much to lose.

This North Korea thing is something I dont understand. Why are they threatening everyone with Nuclear weapons? What started all of this off? I know they have been at war with South Korea (and from what I understand, bullying them somewhat) but what about their relationship with China? Are the Chinese "in on it" or are they trying to keep the peace? I imagine the latter. And what do the Russians have to do with it all?

I dont know any of the reasons behind all of this international bickering, but I do know about the effects of Radiation poisoning, and thats pretty frightening. I'll take being blown up any day over surviving a blast and being poisoned.

[Starter]

This North Korea thing is something I dont understand. Why are they threatening everyone with Nuclear weapons? What started all of this off? I know they have been at war with South Korea (and from what I understand, bullying them somewhat) but what about their relationship with China?Are the Chinese "in on it" or are they trying to keep the peace? I imagine the latter.
North Korea have been "nutters" for a number of decades now. The Chinese were "in on it" for quite a while. But now that they have engaged commercially with the rest of the world, they want nothing which will interrupt the lucrative trade they have.
{quote]And what do the Russians have to do with it all?[/quote]
The Russians have little influence in that part of the world any longer. The Chinese now dominate.


I don't know any of the reasons behind all of this international bickering, but I do know about the effects of Radiation poisoning, and thats pretty frightening. I'll take being blown up any day over surviving a blast and being poisoned.
North Korea has nuclear capability, however it's pretty limited. They could cause havoc in South Korea, but not much elsewhere - with the exception of a lucky hit. They do represent a significant threat to South Korea were they to cross the border. Seoul is only about sixty miles south of the border and would probably be over run quickly in the event of a war, as the combined S Korean and American forces there would take a while to establish a defensive front. Not good for the rest of the world as South Korea is a vibrant trade partner with the west.

[ioan]

North Korea has nuclear capability, however it's pretty limited. They could cause havoc in South Korea, but not much elsewhere - with the exception of a lucky hit. They do represent a significant threat to South Korea were they to cross the border. Seoul is only about sixty miles south of the border and would probably be over run quickly in the event of a war, as the combined S Korean and American forces there would take a while to establish a defensive front. Not good for the rest of the world as South Korea is a vibrant trade partner with the west.

Funny how one of the world's most developed countries, South Korea, seems to be at the mercy of one of the world's least developed countries, North Korea!

[call_me_andrew]

North Korea's technology appears to be 15-20 years behind where the Soviet Union was when it dissolved... 20 years ago!

They wouldn't be able to mount much of an invasion against South Korea; however, there are enough people blindly following Great Sucessor to wage a guerilla war in the mountains.

[Starter]

North Korea's technology appears to be 15-20 years behind where the Soviet Union was when it dissolved... 20 years ago!

They wouldn't be able to mount much of an invasion against South Korea; however, there are enough people blindly following Great Sucessor to wage a guerilla war in the mountains.
It doesn't take high tech to invade across the border with the numbers of troops they have. The S Korean and American defenders would be vastly outnumbered.

[anthonyvop]

It doesn't take high tech to invade across the border with the numbers of troops they have. The S Korean and American defenders would be vastly outnumbered.

If the North was to attack they would push into the south for about 2 days. That is how long it would take for the US to totally render the North's Air-force impotent.

After that the North Korean People's Army Ground Force becomes one big target in what American's like to call a Turkey Shoot. North Korean 1950's vintage Armor will be destroyed in it's tracks. Resupply will be impossible.

Think Dessert Storm but without the modern equipment that Iraq had.

[call_me_andrew]

It doesn't take high tech to invade across the border with the numbers of troops they have. The S Korean and American defenders would be vastly outnumbered.

You don't need numbers when you have tanks.

[Mark]

Anthony. Pretty much spot on. Any invasion by North Korea is a suicide mission and they know it.

Only question is are they *that* crazy to think that might be a good idea.

[BDunnell]

The Russians have little influence in that part of the world any longer. The Chinese now dominate.

But Russia still likes to think it does, because it goes down well back home with a significant, and rather pathetic, section of the public who believe their country to be a great power as it was in the Cold War.



North Korea has nuclear capability, however it's pretty limited. They could cause havoc in South Korea, but not much elsewhere - with the exception of a lucky hit. They do represent a significant threat to South Korea were they to cross the border. Seoul is only about sixty miles south of the border and would probably be over run quickly in the event of a war, as the combined S Korean and American forces there would take a while to establish a defensive front.

The only practical reason I can see for North Korea's nuclear capability is that, beyond numerical superiority, it has little military power. Its armed forces are, so far as we know, reliant upon aged Cold War-era Soviet technology, and beyond the initial over-running of the South's defences could do little to stem any US retaliation.

[BDunnell]

If the North was to attack they would push into the south for about 2 days. That is how long it would take for the US to totally render the North's Air-force impotent.

After that the North Korean People's Army Ground Force becomes one big target in what American's like to call a Turkey Shoot. North Korean 1950's vintage Armor will be destroyed in it's tracks. Resupply will be impossible.

Think Dessert Storm but without the modern equipment that Iraq had.

Exactly. I'd add that any notions the North may have of anyone else intervening on their side are fanciful, if indeed they exist.

[BDunnell]

Anthony. Pretty much spot on. Any invasion by North Korea is a suicide mission and they know it.

Only question is are they *that* crazy to think that might be a good idea.

I very much doubt it.

[donKey jote]

No doubt they would lose in the end, but the question is how much damage they could inflict beforehand by blitzing or nuking the South's main target, Seoul.

[tfp]

North Korea have been "nutters" for a number of decades now. The Chinese were "in on it" for quite a while. But now that they have engaged commercially with the rest of the world, they want nothing which will interrupt the lucrative trade they have.
{quote]And what do the Russians have to do with it all?
The Russians have little influence in that part of the world any longer. The Chinese now dominate.


North Korea has nuclear capability, however it's pretty limited. They could cause havoc in South Korea, but not much elsewhere - with the exception of a lucky hit. They do represent a significant threat to South Korea were they to cross the border. Seoul is only about sixty miles south of the border and would probably be over run quickly in the event of a war, as the combined S Korean and American forces there would take a while to establish a defensive front. Not good for the rest of the world as South Korea is a vibrant trade partner with the west.[/QUOTE]

I see now. But why are they nutters? Are they communists stuck in the past or something? If china is such a dominant country why can't they stop the North Koreans?

When you say that they can't do much damage to the rest of the world, I wouldn't be so sure, if they have atomic weapons, and after that satellite they managed to launch, surely that would mean they are capable of ballistics? Not so good for anyone!

But thanks for the explanation :)

[Starter]

No doubt they would lose in the end, but the question is how much damage they could inflict beforehand by blitzing or nuking the South's main target, Seoul.
Exactly. History has shown that they have no problem throwing soldier's lives away either. In the first war, American forces were over run when their machine gun barrels got so hot that they started to sag or when they ran out of ammunition. Please note I never said they would win, only that I can see them doing it.

[BDunnell]

I see now. But why are they nutters? Are they communists stuck in the past or something? If china is such a dominant country why can't they stop the North Koreans?

When you say that they can't do much damage to the rest of the world, I wouldn't be so sure, if they have atomic weapons, and after that satellite they managed to launch, surely that would mean they are capable of ballistics? Not so good for anyone!

But thanks for the explanation :)

I suggest a bit of Googling for background about North Korea.

[Malbec]

North Korea have been "nutters" for a number of decades now. The Chinese were "in on it" for quite a while. But now that they have engaged commercially with the rest of the world, they want nothing which will interrupt the lucrative trade they have.

Actually if a war kicks off in the Far East I believe it would be over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, not Korea. I also believe it would be started by the Chinese.

The new Kim is just sabre-rattling. He's young and needs to impose himself on his people and the military, hence the recent rocket and nuclear tests and the posturing. I don't think its a great idea for the US to fly over two nuclear capable bombers for a large scale exercise that is actually quite aggressive in its scope and nature but ultimately North Korea has survived so long by knowing exactly how to play the game. Kim knows the rules and he's playing according to them. In a while he'll show what he really wants which is probably direct negotiations with the South and the US over something and he'll back off.

China and Japan are treading over completely fresh ground in their little spat though. China uses Japan a lot to divert domestic attention away from other problems but then stops and backs off. Neither country has had a military stand off since WW2 with each other. Now though, Chinese ships and planes regularly violate Japanese waters and airspace which they never did before, and lock onto Japanese forces with fire control radar.

Neither country has a hotline to discuss matters urgently to diffuse a crisis if it should occur, and it appears that there is little appetite especially in Beijing to smooth things over. The US is obliged to defend Japan according to a longstanding defence treaty and its not clear to what degree the Chinese actually control their armed forces. Some nationalistic Chinese rogue officer might end up kickstarting a war acting independently, just as similar Japanese officers started wars 70-80 years before.

All the ingredients are there for a serious war to kick off amongst three of the biggest economies in the world. You'd have thought cooler heads would prevail but so far they haven't. I'd focus on that rather than North Korea.

[Granatelli]

He went to school in Switzerland, just for your knowledge, so he might know a thing or two about the world.
Before WWII Germany and England were Europe's biggest trading partners. Even had factories in each others countries. We all know how that worked out.

[BDunnell]

Before WWII Germany and England were Europe's biggest trading partners. Even had factories in each others countries. We all know how that worked out.

In what way does that fact negate ioan's point?

[Starter]

In what way does that fact negate ioan's point?
It makes the point that it's irrelevant.

[BDunnell]

It makes the point that it's irrelevant.

No it doesn't. ioan's remark was a simple statement of fact, namely that Kim Jong-un is not completely ignorant of the rest of the world. I believe this to be highly relevant in any discussion of this topic.

[Starter]

No it doesn't. ioan's remark was a simple statement of fact, namely that Kim Jong-un is not completely ignorant of the rest of the world. I believe this to be highly relevant in any discussion of this topic.
ioan's post "He went to school in Switzerland, just for your knowledge, so he might know a thing or two about the world." started as a statement of fact (before the first comma), but ended as a speculation (after the second comma) which remains unproven.

uptop h? b?n

[Knock-on]

Interesting points made so far.

I said a couple of years ago that the US / Iran issue was a mere diversion to the potential issue brewing in Korea. However, things have changed a bit in the last few years. China has adopted a more progressive stance towards the west and openly criticised North Korea. The leadership has changed in NK and a ramp up of the countries profile in the eyes of the world is underway.

There is no point having nuclear weapons unless people think you're bonkers enough to use them. Do we think Kim is a "nutter". Well, quite a few people here do which gives him what he needs. Power, collatoral, a stake in the great game.

I doubt a full war will occur. Kim must be a 24 carat looney tune to attempt that and no matter how much he postures, I very much doubt this is the case. However, he may want to revolutionise his country, with favourable trade agreements and a moral 'victory' against SK and the imperial dogs. From a position of power, he may think he can win this battle without firing a single shot but by brinkmanship. Saddam Hussain didn't manage it but the Americans desire for conflict is not as acute in NK. Not enough oil. I think Kim has a good chance to pull it off.

[ioan]

In what way does that fact negate ioan's point?

Thanks Ben.
It's funny how people can't read the posts in their original context, though not surprising in today's society. ;)

[ioan]

ioan's post "He went to school in Switzerland, just for your knowledge, so he might know a thing or two about the world." started as a statement of fact (before the first comma), but ended as a speculation (after the second comma) which remains unproven.

Honestly you think he didn't learn anything about the world while studying in Switzerland?! I'm surprised by your views to be honest.

[BDunnell]

Honestly you think he didn't learn anything about the world while studying in Switzerland?! I'm surprised by your views to be honest.

Exactly. I find the notion that he's purely ignorant about the rest of the world rather fanciful, I must admit.

[BDunnell]

There is no point having nuclear weapons unless people think you're bonkers enough to use them.

Well, there's an issue worthy of further discussion. Do we think the UK is 'bonkers enough' ever to use Trident? If we think Kim Jong-un isn't bonkers enough to use his nuclear weapons, then there's no way the UK is, rendering — in my view — possession of a nuclear deterrent an outdated waste of money.

But there's another factor in North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons that cannot be ignored. This is the extent to which having them is popular in the eyes of the country's populace. I think we've largely got over this in the West since the end of the Cold War — the notion of nuclear weapons as an indicator of a country's strength and prestige. In the likes of Russia and North Korea, they haven't. It's wrong, I feel, to view Kim Jong-un's actions purely as being directed towards South Korea and the wider world; we shouldn't ignore the way in which they are also intended for domestic consumption. Even in a country that's not a democracy and in which there's no need for a leader to win votes, this is a factor.


I think Kim has a good chance to pull it off.

Given that a war is in no-one's interest, I'm not sure it's a case of 'pulling it off' so much as all concerned coming to much the same view — that armed conflict would be a grave mistake.

[ioan]

South Korea is looking to get themselves in a position to bargain over whatever they are after right now, and I guess they will soon let us know what that something is.
They know that a war would be a lost case as they have no one in their own corner while South Korea has the US as well as diplomatic support of the rest of the world minus Russia and China, who will make sure they do not get involved in this.
In the end this is posturing and a way to open discussions for some yet to be announced claims.

[Spafranco]

[quote:wxe15rxo]ioan's post "He went to school in Switzerland, just for your knowledge, so he might know a thing or two about the world." started as a statement of fact (before the first comma), but ended as a speculation (after the second comma) which remains unproven.



Honestly you think he didn't learn anything about the world while studying in Switzerland?! I'm surprised by your views be honest.[/quote:wxe15rxo]

ioan's post "He went to school in Switzerland, just for your knowledge, so he might know a thing or two about the world." started as a statement of fact (before the first comma), but ended as a speculation (after the second comma) which remains unproven.[quote]

I am totally amused by starter using the comma to point out the validation of his cerebral thinking.

What BDunnell and ioan stated ,I am in complete agreement.

How does a person (Kimmy boy) not become aware of the difference between Switzerland and North Korea in addition to the reat of the West, If anyone has been to Switzerland you'll understand what I mean.

There is no rational human thought pattern that would allow one to believe that believing that N.Korea is better.

[Starter]

.....no rational human thought pattern.....
Key words when dealing with the various N Korean Kims.

[BDunnell]

How does a person (Kimmy boy) not become aware of the difference between Switzerland and North Korea in addition to the reat of the West, If anyone has been to Switzerland you'll understand what I mean.

There is no rational human thought pattern that would allow one to believe that believing that N.Korea is better.

Well, to be fair, this is where one wonders whether a degree — at least — of irrationality enters his thoughts. But this does not mean to say that he is ignorant of the response with which his regime's launching an armed strike against the South would be met, nor of the West's thinking.

[ioan]

There is no rational human thought pattern that would allow one to believe that believing that N.Korea is better.

There is no rational human thought patter that would allow one to believe that a single person can change the most brainwashed population on Earth from dictatorship to democracy overnight. Just sayin'.

[donKey jote]

Key words when dealing with the various N Korean Kims.

they're not all that bad... my favourite Kim is 김치 :andrea:

[odykas]

http://toponday.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/north-vs-south-Korea-600x882.jpg

[Knock-on]

South Korea is looking to get themselves in a position to bargain over whatever they are after right now, and I guess they will soon let us know what that something is.
They know that a war would be a lost case as they have no one in their own corner while South Korea has the US as well as diplomatic support of the rest of the world minus Russia and China, who will make sure they do not get involved in this.
In the end this is posturing and a way to open discussions for some yet to be announced claims.

I agree but we know what they want. NK is out of step with the developed world and wants to be part of the game. They just need to get in a position where they can negotiate trade deals and drop sanctions.

The trick will be whether they can do it without having a sacrificial conflict.

[Starter]

I agree but we know what they want. NK is out of step with the developed world and wants to be part of the game. They just need to get in a position where they can negotiate trade deals and drop sanctions.

The trick will be whether they can do it without having a sacrificial conflict.
I am not necessarily disagreeing with you, but can you tell me why the current leaders there, Kim & the generals, give a rat's butt for it? They are doing just fine right now.

[BDunnell]

I am not necessarily disagreeing with you, but can you tell me why the current leaders there, Kim & the generals, give a rat's butt for it? They are doing just fine right now.

Because, I would presume, of exactly what ioan said: Kim Jong-un's knowledge of the outside world must, unless he is completely deranged, lead him to recognise that his country will otherwise not make progress. He has a skewed interpretation of how to go about it, but I believe this to be the case.

[Starter]

Because, I would presume, of exactly what ioan said: Kim Jong-un's knowledge of the outside world must, unless he is completely deranged, lead him to recognise that his country will otherwise not make progress. He has a skewed interpretation of how to go about it, but I believe this to be the case.
You missed the point of my question. Why would Kim care if his country makes progress? He's pretty much set.

[BDunnell]

You missed the point of my question. Why would Kim care if his country makes progress? He's pretty much set.

No, I didn't miss the point of it at all.

[ioan]

You missed the point of my question. Why would Kim care if his country makes progress? He's pretty much set.

Well, maybe, just maybe he cares?
Maybe he doesn't want to be the boss over a bunch of losers?
Maybe he thinks that he is the one who can lift the country out of the isolation in which it sits since many decades?
The issue is that he can't just change it overnight, for two reasons:
1. His generals would not agree
2. people are way to indoctrinated to be able to make the change

Just my 2 cents worth, based on living once under socialist dictatorship.

PS: Ben didn't miss the point, you did by a country mile.

[Tazio]

North Korea
http://abandonedkansai.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/abandoned-vending-machine.jpg?w=750

Seoul
http://darkroom.baltimoresun.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/REU-KOREA_2.jpg

Southern California
http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1049934/thumbs/r-MARIJUANA-VENDING-MACHINE-large570.jpg?6

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2133143/World-gone-pot-California-company-weeds-competition-marijuana-vending-machine.html

[Gregor-y]

Best coast, indeed.

[ioan]

North Korea
http://abandonedkansai.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/abandoned-vending-machine.jpg?w=750

That looks like Japan to me! ;)

[Starter]

Well, maybe, just maybe he cares?
Maybe he doesn't want to be the boss over a bunch of losers?
Always possible, but, so far, the body of evidence doesn't support that position.


PS: Ben didn't miss the point, you did by a country mile.
:D :p :D Not sure how I can miss the point of my own statement.

[BDunnell]

Always possible, but, so far, the body of evidence doesn't support that position.

What is this 'body of evidence'? As far as I'm concerned, it's not that he's unaware of the outside world.

[Tazio]

That looks like Japan to me! ;)
I stand corrected :grenade:
Abandoned Vending Machine | Abandoned Kansai (http://abandonedkansai.wordpress.com/2012/01/05/north-korean-school-in-gifu-chongryon-school/abandoned-vending-machine/)

[Starter]

What is this 'body of evidence'? As far as I'm concerned, it's not that he's unaware of the outside world.
I never claimed he was unaware of the outside world. Those are words you have tried to put in my mouth. The question I asked was: ".....but can you tell me why the current leaders there, Kim & the generals, give a rat's butt for it?". The question has nothing to do with their knowledge of the outside world and everything to do with their attitude toward and relationship with it.

[race aficionado]

All we know is that we know nothing in terms of what others really think - and specially in this case.

It's surreal really and very serious too.

[ioan]

I never claimed he was unaware of the outside world. Those are words you have tried to put in my mouth. The question I asked was: ".....but can you tell me why the current leaders there, Kim & the generals, give a rat's butt for it?". The question has nothing to do with their knowledge of the outside world and everything to do with their attitude toward and relationship with it.

So, where is the evidence that Kim and the generals doesn't give a rat's arse about the situation?

[Starter]

So, where is the evidence that Kim and the generals doesn't give a rat's arse about the situation?

The current posturing which is above and beyond past posturing. And which, though I give this less than 50% chance, may not be posturing at all.

[Malbec]

Because, I would presume, of exactly what ioan said: Kim Jong-un's knowledge of the outside world must, unless he is completely deranged, lead him to recognise that his country will otherwise not make progress. He has a skewed interpretation of how to go about it, but I believe this to be the case.

Why on earth would Kim the 3rd want progress?

Unlike others here I don't classify any of the Kims as being 'nutters'. They are extremely shrewd and I might be wrong but I think they're the longest lasting dictatorial dynasty left in the world. They didn't manage that feat on pure luck alone.

Kim the 3rd looks forward to around 60 years of gainful life as I think he's in his late 20's at the moment. I bet he plans to live those years as supreme leader of N Korea till the day he dies and isn't planning on abdication or ending up on the wrong end of a North Korean firing squad.

Why then would he want his country to progress, to open up? He's seen the effect opening up to the outside world and flirting with democracy had on the USSR, and also the extremely risky game the Communists are playing in China allowing economic but not political freedoms. Why take the risk at all? For his family and those of the military high command life is great, they enjoy a far higher quality of life than you or I. Why not keep that regime stable and not rock the boat?

Like Starter I simply see no evidence whatsoever that Kim the 3rd wants to open up to the West or anything like it.

I also don't see why people are so focussed on whats happening now. All that has emanated out of North Korea so far are empty words. Compare that to 2010 when they torpedoed and sank a South Korean frigate then had an artillery exchange with the South killing several soldiers and civilians. We haven't reached anything like that level yet.

[Roamy]

All we know is that we know nothing in terms of what others really think - and specially in this case.

It's surreal really and very serious too.

South Korea needs to "man up " go up there and kick some ass and annex this piece of sh!t and we can all move on!! End of story !!!!

[D-Type]

The mindset in N Korea and in other 'far eastern' countries (all those on the west side of the Pacific is different from the 'west' (Europe and the cultures derived from it in North and South America, Australia and New Zealand). It doesn't make them 'nutters' they simply view the world differently with different priorities.

And North Korea are now one of the 8 or 9 countries with nuclear capability. This alone means we have to take the threat they pose very seriously.

[mr nobody]

Also a new leader who may or may not have a grasp on reality. They may also believe that with the current difficulties in Syria the US and other countries either don't have the capacity to respond or won't. Particularly since the American public is tired of wars after Iraq and Afghanistan.

Did the old one have a grasp? North Korea is just being that unruly 2 year old at his friends birthday party who doesn't get the attention he thinks he deserves. If North Korea really wanted to do something they would have done it years ago. They don't have any friendships left that will come to their aid when their butts start getting kicked if they tried something.

[D-Type]

Did the old one have a grasp? North Korea is just being that unruly 2 year old at his friends birthday party who doesn't get the attention he thinks he deserves. If North Korea really wanted to do something they would have done it years ago. They don't have any friendships left that will come to their aid when their butts start getting kicked if they tried something.
But thuis unruly 2-year old has nuclear weapons - that's what's different from previous tantrums.

[Roamy]

Jesus H Christ - Someone take them out and annex them.

[ioan]

Why on earth would Kim the 3rd want progress?

Unlike others here I don't classify any of the Kims as being 'nutters'. They are extremely shrewd and I might be wrong but I think they're the longest lasting dictatorial dynasty left in the world. They didn't manage that feat on pure luck alone.

Kim the 3rd looks forward to around 60 years of gainful life as I think he's in his late 20's at the moment. I bet he plans to live those years as supreme leader of N Korea till the day he dies and isn't planning on abdication or ending up on the wrong end of a North Korean firing squad.

Why then would he want his country to progress, to open up? He's seen the effect opening up to the outside world and flirting with democracy had on the USSR, and also the extremely risky game the Communists are playing in China allowing economic but not political freedoms. Why take the risk at all? For his family and those of the military high command life is great, they enjoy a far higher quality of life than you or I. Why not keep that regime stable and not rock the boat?

Like Starter I simply see no evidence whatsoever that Kim the 3rd wants to open up to the West or anything like it.

I also don't see why people are so focussed on whats happening now. All that has emanated out of North Korea so far are empty words. Compare that to 2010 when they torpedoed and sank a South Korean frigate then had an artillery exchange with the South killing several soldiers and civilians. We haven't reached anything like that level yet.

There's always the risk that either the people or someone from outside will get rid of him.
Ceausescu managed quite a long dictatorship without being called Kim and inheriting it, yet he lost it cause he kept the people hungry.
You only see the bright side of being a dictator, yet there are quite big pitfalls behind it and one has to account for those too.
We will have to wait and see what he will do, however I am fairly sure that he is thinking about going the same way the Chinese went.

[anthonyvop]

South Korea needs to "man up " go up there and kick some ass and annex this piece of sh!t and we can all move on!! End of story !!!!

This isn't Iraq or Afghanistan were there was some private property and an established economy.

If the South was to move on the North and dissolve the DMZ they would be adopting about 24 Million people to feed & cloth. Except for a few Government employees there is no economy to provide even the most basic of services.

24 million is almost 1/2 the population of the South. It would literally be a Humanitarian crisis that a combined Ethiopian famine, Thailand Tsunami and Haitian Earthquake would pale in comparison.
No economy could handle that.

[Rollo]

24 million is almost 1/2 the population of the South. It would literally be a Humanitarian crisis that a combined Ethiopian famine, Thailand Tsunami and Haitian Earthquake would pale in comparison.
No economy could handle that.

Conceivably China could but they're not likely to for the same reason. Actually it makes sense for China to partially prop up Pyongyang, or otherwise there'd be economic refugees who'd cross the Sino-Korean border.

[Malbec]

There's always the risk that either the people or someone from outside will get rid of him.
Ceausescu managed quite a long dictatorship without being called Kim and inheriting it, yet he lost it cause he kept the people hungry.
You only see the bright side of being a dictator, yet there are quite big pitfalls behind it and one has to account for those too.
We will have to wait and see what he will do, however I am fairly sure that he is thinking about going the same way the Chinese went.

Ceaucescu lost funding and support from the USSR as did the other members of the Warsaw Pact which was the single biggest factor for his demise. Also Romanians were well aware of what was going on in their neighbouring countries as other dictatorships fell and therefore drew inspiration. North Koreans are barely aware of what is going on in the outside world.

I don't see the bright side of anything, I am merely stating that his priorities and intentions are not likely to place much importance on the development of his own country and the wellbeing of his people.

[Rudy Tamasz]

24 million is almost 1/2 the population of the South. It would literally be a Humanitarian crisis that a combined Ethiopian famine, Thailand Tsunami and Haitian Earthquake would pale in comparison.
No economy could handle that.

I bet the U.S. economy could easily handle that. You've taken care of Iraq and Afghanistan. Why not take care of N. Korea? And Syria? And, umm, some other place, too?

[anthonyvop]

I bet the U.S. economy could easily handle that. You've taken care of Iraq and Afghanistan. Why not take care of N. Korea? And Syria? And, umm, some other place, too?

As I explained to you it isn't nearly the same. After the Iraq war there were stores and private distribution systems and a somewhat healthy currency. People weren't starving and the vast majority had food in the fridge and at least a few cents in their pockets.

[schmenke]

As I explained to you it isn't nearly the same. After the Iraq war there were stores and private distribution systems and a somewhat healthy currency. People weren't starving and the vast majority had food in the fridge and at least a few cents in their pockets.

Iraq had oil :dozey:

[Gregor-y]

And the war was going to pay for itself, once everyone stopped their celebratory looting and went back to work for companies that had been sold off to US investors.

[Knock-on]

Just chucking a bone in. Is anyone aware that Kim Jr has reappointed the minister sacked by his sire for having too commercial a view regarding the economy. Now, we know that ministers in NK don't have too much real power but it's a strange move by someone that isn't looking to modernise his country.

(No link. I cnt remember where I read it)

[Roamy]

Stomp the Rice Midget and move on !!!

[anthonyvop]

And the war was going to pay for itself, once everyone stopped their celebratory looting and went back to work for companies that had been sold off to US investors.

Please control your knee-jerk USA bashing and try to stick on topic.

[Rudy Tamasz]

As I explained to you it isn't nearly the same. After the Iraq war there were stores and private distribution systems and a somewhat healthy currency. People weren't starving and the vast majority had food in the fridge and at least a few cents in their pockets.

I was just kidding. I ironically referred to the fact that the U.S. seems to try handling all problems of this world at once.

[Roamy]

I was just kidding. I ironically referred to the fact that the U.S. seems to try handling all problems of this world at once.

Well we have dug that hole for ourselves. We need to get out of the war business because no one gives a sh!t about collateral damage except us and the worthless UN.
The Rice Midget has the 3rd largest army in the world and has to pick a fight with someone. Maybe Obama has the balls to annihilate someone and we can take a 20 yr breather.
Payoff the deficit and legalize prostitution. See I think like a politician now and have to add to the deal

[Valve Bounce]

It all started with the cuddling up to Denis Rodman by Kim. http://blogs.seattletimes.com/opinionnw/2013/03/15/dennis-rodman-kim-jong-u/
I don't think that many forum members understand that Koreans, both North and South, consider Afro Americans as Non Persons. I am in a position to say this because, when I was working in Korea in 1977, I was instrumental in arranging for my sister in Hawaii to adopt two Afro American (mixed) children from fr. Kean's orphanage at In Chon. These children were regarded as non persons, and when the two children were playing at the grounds at Nam San Apartments, the Koreans (both adults and children) would throw stones and broken glass at them.
The sight of Kim embracing Dennis Rodman must have infuriated most if not all the North Korean Generals, not to mention that they all lost face big time. In Korea, this means everything in hierarchic standing in any community, let alone the ruling class.
So, to atone for his "mistake Kim, (who by the way is merely a puppet of certain Army Generals) has been forced to launch this bizarre attack on both South Korea and the USA.
Such an attack is basically not feasible simply because any retaliation would wipe out much of North Korea's population as well as its military infrastructure. But at the moment, they are bellicose and insulting to hide their great shame.

This is never meant to be a racist comment, only from my own intimate knowledge of how Koreans believe. I am stunned that the State Department has not figured this one out.

[BDunnell]

Why on earth would Kim the 3rd want progress?

I think I ought to have been a bit clearer about what I mean by 'progress'. I'm obviously under no illusions as to the nature of the regime, or the fact that this would not be 'progress' in the sense as we or other countries understand it. However, a couple of examples have been mentioned above, such as the minister who was sacked for being seen as too pro-Western, and who has now apparently been reinstated. There have been signs of wishing to take some steps closer to the West, so the notion is not so fanciful.



Unlike others here I don't classify any of the Kims as being 'nutters'.

In that case, what did his time in the West teach Kim Jong-un? This is what I find impossible to reconcile — the fact of his not being a 'nutter' and, at the same time, the notion that being in the West and knowing about it was of no influence on him whatsoever.

[Gregor-y]

Please control your knee-jerk USA bashing and try to stick on topic.
You went there. I'm just trying to clean up your mess.

[keysersoze]

In that case, what did his time in the West teach Kim Jong-un? This is what I find impossible to reconcile — the fact of his not being a 'nutter' and, at the same time, the notion that being in the West and knowing about it was of no influence on him whatsoever.

You and ioan have assumed too much about his time in the West. It may mean something, or it may mean next to nothing.

If you spent time in the U.S., it may indeed strengthen the notions you held before arriving. It doesn't necessarily mean you will develop any empathy, appreciation, or affection for American ways.

[Malbec]

I think I ought to have been a bit clearer about what I mean by 'progress'. I'm obviously under no illusions as to the nature of the regime, or the fact that this would not be 'progress' in the sense as we or other countries understand it. However, a couple of examples have been mentioned above, such as the minister who was sacked for being seen as too pro-Western, and who has now apparently been reinstated. There have been signs of wishing to take some steps closer to the West, so the notion is not so fanciful.

What are those signs? And why do you assume North Korea is interested in a relationship with the West? The power brokers and players in the region are South Korea, China, Russia and Japan, not the West. I don't see signs that Kim the 3rd has looked at improving relationships with any of those local countries, in fact his nuclear and strategic rocket testing has worsened his relationship significantly with China and Japan, two of his biggest foreign currency sources. The US is a relatively distant player whilst Europe is barely represented in the region. The benefits improving ties to the West will bring to North Korea pale into insignificance compared to the benefits brought by improving ties with his immediate neighbours, yet he's not even interested in doing that.

OK so he invited a basketball team, not surprising for a country full of basketball fanatics. He also invited Eric Schmidt of Google for a tour (his daughter's account of the trip speaks volumes of the country BTW) which is interesting but beyond that? I guess Kim the 3rd did also allow the North Korean world cup matches in 2010 to be televised, but the fate of the team when they returned home tells me more that fundamentally things are not changing much over there. I think he introduced minor market reforms to improve agricultural productivity which are nothing compared to the steps the Chinese made after Mao's death.


In that case, what did his time in the West teach Kim Jong-un? This is what I find impossible to reconcile — the fact of his not being a 'nutter' and, at the same time, the notion that being in the West and knowing about it was of no influence on him whatsoever.

You're assuming that knowledge of the West would likely influence him to pursue closer ties and open up. I suspect that instead he's gained more knowledge of the West's strengths and weaknesses and how Western societies and governments behave so that he can exploit it better. Look at the Chinese, they've done exactly the same thing with style exploiting the West where its useful and keeping it at arms length or even attacking it where it isn't.

[Roamy]

yea give him a NBA team and maybe he will STFU for a few years

[schmenke]

Nah, give it time and Ecclestone will eventually sign an agreement for an F1 event :mark: .

[Roamy]

Nah, give it time and Ecclestone will eventually sign an agreement for an F1 event :mark: .

I don't know - It would have to be fully catered and I don't know if Bernie would spend the money

[Gregor-y]

He'll do it for a nuclear weapon that will bring all the traditional European venues into line.

[BDunnell]

You and ioan have assumed too much about his time in the West. It may mean something, or it may mean next to nothing.

If you spent time in the U.S., it may indeed strengthen the notions you held before arriving. It doesn't necessarily mean you will develop any empathy, appreciation, or affection for American ways.

Yes, these are very reasonable points.

[Rollo]

I would just like to know how much of this frenzy is being generated by the US Dept of Defence in response to budget sequestration.

[Starter]

I would just like to know how much of this frenzy is being generated by the US Dept of Defence in response to budget sequestration.
I knew there had to be a conspiracy theory in there somewhere. :rolleyes:

[Rollo]

I knew there had to be a conspiracy theory in there somewhere. :rolleyes:

Well, considering that you've spent at least $3bn on a war which started on the premise of a lie, it's a good question. Maybe you're just more trusting of what government does with your money.

[Valve Bounce]

You're assuming that knowledge of the West would likely influence him to pursue closer ties and open up. I suspect that instead he's gained more knowledge of the West's strengths and weaknesses and how Western societies and governments behave so that he can exploit it better. Look at the Chinese, they've done exactly the same thing with style exploiting the West where its useful and keeping it at arms length or even attacking it where it isn't.

I think you give him too much credit. The guy is a puppet under the control of certain Army generals. For a guy of his supposed stature to cuddle and embrace Dennis Rodman is, to most Koreans, outrageous. Severe loss of face.

[Mark]

It's already being used by the UK government as a reason to spend on nulcear weapons. And strangely as a result an argument against Scottish Independence!

[airshifter]

I really can't think his time dealing with western culture has done much for his views. Though I agree that the military calls most of the shots, he could easily still be a hero if he played his cards right. All he would have to do is convince his military leaders that he has been contacted by major players in the western world, and they are fearful of the N. Korean military and this willing to compromise and come to agreements.

Since the "sabre rattling" is the primary cause of concessions against the country, he could easily negotiate opening of trade and such in return for convincing his military leaders to stand down and quit scaring the west. I don't think anyone in the western world would care much if he kept up his lies to his people, as long as they lived better and the sabre rattling stopped.

[Mark]

The 'west' doesn't care about the situation the N.Korean peoples find themselves in at all. They've effectly been abandoned to their fate.

[BDunnell]

It's already being used by the UK government as a reason to spend on nulcear weapons.

A ludicrous, empty-headed justification by Cameron. A nuclear deterrent is only worthwhile if there's the possibility that it might actually be used. This is blatantly not the case with Trident.

[Malbec]

The 'west' doesn't care about the situation the N.Korean peoples find themselves in at all. They've effectly been abandoned to their fate.

Actually the countries dealing with North Korea care very much about the North Korean people, the first, second and third priorites are to prevent the country from collapsing in order to prevent the humanitarian crisis that antonyvop mentioned earlier in the thread. On this front every single country involved in the region is utterly united. Perverse as it may seem this means propping up the regime in Pyongyang whilst curbing their excesses is the goal.

[Malbec]

I think you give him too much credit. The guy is a puppet under the control of certain Army generals. For a guy of his supposed stature to cuddle and embrace Dennis Rodman is, to most Koreans, outrageous. Severe loss of face.

None of the Kims has ever been a puppet of the generals but I do believe this one is having to stamp his authority on the military. Kim the 3rd's ascendancy was accompanied by several top generals disappearing, presumably shot. That is not the sign of a leader who is under the thumb but of one wanting to remind people who is boss.

Your assertion that Korean racism is the root cause for the current crisis is amusing but you forget that Dennis Rodman is a basketball player and ignore what status a top player would have in Korea (either North or South), something that would override racism. Nor does it tally with Kim's full personal involvement with the sabre rattling or his attempts to get as much personal publicity and reflected glory from the nuclear/rocket tests with staged photographs of him following the launch etc. This would not be the case if the military were leading with Kim merely following in their wake.

[Malbec]

A ludicrous, empty-headed justification by Cameron. A nuclear deterrent is only worthwhile if there's the possibility that it might actually be used. This is blatantly not the case with Trident.

Isn't that a catch 22? A good deterrent would never have to actually be used if it did its job which is to prevent an exchange of nuclear weapons in the first place?

[Valve Bounce]

Your assertion that Korean racism is the root cause for the current crisis is amusing but you forget that Dennis Rodman is a basketball player and ignore what status a top player would have in Korea (either North or South), something that would override racism.

I don't forget that Dennis Rodman WAS a basketball player. I do remember he was a nutter long before he retired.

However, unless you are speaking from experience about Koreans, then perhaps you will only find my explanation amusing. I do too, which is a strange position for me to take. I can only tell you what I experienced in my time (19 months) in Korea as a consultant engineer.

As for Kim standing in front of huge stadiums with everyone clapping in unison, well my interpretation is they are staged by the Generals who hold power, not Kim.

My personal opinion of Kim is that he holds power only because he does as he is lead to.

Perhaps it is best for us to agree to disagree.

[Malbec]

However, unless you are speaking from experience about Koreans, then perhaps you will only find my explanation amusing.

Yes I do, though I've only met one North Korean (most of the Koreans I know are obviously from the South) which is why I didn't criticise your description of Koreans being racist. If anything they hardly limit themselves to looking down on blacks but on the rest of humanity as a whole though younger Koreans are far more well travelled than earlier generations and therefore tend to be much more open minded.

My point is that I do not think the generals are trying to engineer a nuclear war because Kim the 3rd embraced a black basketball player.


Perhaps it is best for us to agree to disagree.

NP!

[Brown, Jon Brow]

I wonder how much of the crisis is actually scaremongering by the western media? Even the BBC has a nice map of death on every story to do with N. Korea:
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/59119000/jpg/_59119706_north_korea_ranges_2.jpg

It seems like every few years we get threats from N.Korea on the news, then everyone forgets about it and everything goes back to how it was.

[Mark]

Actually the countries dealing with North Korea care very much about the North Korean people, the first, second and third priorites are to prevent the country from collapsing in order to prevent the humanitarian crisis that antonyvop mentioned earlier in the thread. On this front every single country involved in the region is utterly united. Perverse as it may seem this means propping up the regime in Pyongyang whilst curbing their excesses is the goal.

I don't think it would be that bad tbh. If the North Korean government were to vanish overnight it wouldn't then become an ungovernable state with warlords trying to take control like Somalia etc. The North Koreans (most of them) would look towards South Korea, who would have (relatively) little trouble taking over the running of the North. Yes there would be mass migration to the South - and perhaps China, initially, but as proper governance established itself in the North the new Korea within 10 years would emerge a richer nation than it is now.

[Firstgear]

I don't think it would be that bad tbh. If the North Korean government were to vanish overnight it wouldn't then become an ungovernable state with warlords trying to take control like Somalia etc. The North Koreans (most of them) would look towards South Korea, who would have (relatively) little trouble taking over the running of the North. Yes there would be mass migration to the South - and perhaps China, initially, but as proper governance established itself in the North the new Korea within 10 years would emerge a richer nation than it is now.
Yes. I think/hope it would go like the German reunification.

[Gregor-y]

Yes. I think/hope it would go like the German reunification.
Did that take more than 10 years to stabilize? Has it fully stabilized now, 20-some years on? Regardless as a whole they're doing quite nicely these days. If anyone's worried about a stronger (unified) Korea in 30 years time, it would be China.

[Mark]

British diplomats in North Korea have been warned the government there cannot guarantee their safety after April 10 in the event of conflict, the Foreign Office has said.

BBC News - North Korea warns safety of British diplomats 'cannot be guaranteed' (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22037008)

[Malbec]

I don't think it would be that bad tbh. If the North Korean government were to vanish overnight it wouldn't then become an ungovernable state with warlords trying to take control like Somalia etc. The North Koreans (most of them) would look towards South Korea, who would have (relatively) little trouble taking over the running of the North. Yes there would be mass migration to the South - and perhaps China, initially, but as proper governance established itself in the North the new Korea within 10 years would emerge a richer nation than it is now.

As firstgear says it sounds like you're using the German reunification as a template. I don't think it would go that way.

Chronologically I think it will go as follows:

The North Koreans are starving. If the state breaks down they will move to where there is food. This means China and South Korea and it will be an instant refugee crisis that would make Syria look like a walk in the park. South Korean and Chinese forces are going to have to move in very quickly to restore order and distribute food too.

North Korean security personnel are not going to turn up to work if the state breaks down. Like the Iraqi state security apparatus personnel before them, once the end of their state becomes clear they will be concerned about their own personal safety and will disappear. If the fear of direct reprisals by the North Koreans they oppressed and tortured doesn't scare them they will assume the South Koreans will hunt them down and subject them to 'justice'. After all that is what they would do if the roles were reversed. What caused the biggest problem in Iraq after the invasion was that the Americans assumed the police etc would keep turning up to work. Instead they melted away and anarchy happened. This will happen in North Korea too. I wouldn't rule out attacks on incoming South Korean or international workers either, after all this is a country that requested food aid from Japan and then impounded and imprisoned the sailors on board once the shipments arrived. They have a serious siege mentality and it would be naive to expect that to disappear overnight.

Assuming this initial phase is dealt with then North Korea will have to be reassimilated with the South. North Korea is nothing like East Germany, South Korea is no West Germany (big brands excepted), it isn't anywhere near as large or productive. South Korea's economy would struggle to cope with the cost even with inevitable Chinese, American and Japanese financial support.

To some degree West Germany was able to recoup some of the costs of reunification by having access to a large new market thanks to the breakdown of the Berlin wall, both in East Germany and in the rest of Eastern Europe. South Korea will only get access to North Korea, a market with no money whatsoever beyond what the South Koreans give it.

North Korea has barely fixed the damage caused by the war 60 years ago. Most of the country doesn't have electricity outside the cities. They still use steam trains to some extent. There is barely any industry and what there is is stone age. Modernising North Korea isn't going to be a case of shutting down or privatising all the state owned companies like it was in East Germany, it involves dragging a country from the 1950s into the modern era and building infrastructure up from scratch. And again that doesn't count the cost of sorting out the mess when the entire North Korean state disappears overnight. It also assumes the lack of an organised resistance sabotaging modernisation efforts which I don't think you can rule out.

Then long term there is the psychological aspect of dealing with an entire population that has been brainwashed to hate the outside world and live in fear of the state in complete isolation from the outside world. I don't think any other society has been brainwashed like this for so long. I'm sure the majority will slowly acclimatise to living in a democratic capitalistic society but I'm also sure a significant minority will have serious problems. What will that cause? No idea. Are North Korean workers going to be literate and therefore usable as cheap labour for companies like Samsung? They might be but I doubt the typical North Korean is as skilled or educated as their former East German counterparts.

All of North Korea's immediate neighbours are either democratic or are run by a president with a fixed term (China). It isn't a coincidence that all the surrounding leaders are happy to keep North Korea's government propped up so that a collapse isn't a problem that has to be dealt with on their watch.

[ShiftingGears]

My point is that I do not think the generals are trying to engineer a nuclear war because Kim the 3rd embraced a black basketball player.

LOL!

[ShiftingGears]

As firstgear says it sounds like you're using the German reunification as a template. I don't think it would go that way.

I thought this whole post was brilliant.

[Gregor-y]

I'm not so worried about North Korea's infrastructure. Everything there is as old and dilapidated as East Germany was and would need total renovation anyway. Could South Korea not afford it? In the early 1990s there was a lot of doubt about West Germany handling modernization as well but it was done. South Korea makes a ton of cheap stuff and sells it all over the world, so I wouldn't doubt their ability to channel their energy into modernizing the North. The real sticking point would be the mentality of North Korea's leaders and general population, the latter being the big unknown factor.

The commanders of the police and military in East Germany didn't put up much if any resistance to unification. Militarily there wasn't a lot of development anyway because the Soviets never considered the bulk of the East German military to be anything other than a potential stab in the back. The police organizations were only concerned with erasing the evidence of their work before it was made public. North Korean commanders have a lot more freedom and power (odd, that) than their East German counterparts to continue a fight, particularly since they are conditioned for it (again, unlike East Germany).

The really big unknown is what the general population of North Korea think. East Germans more or less knew they were in an indefinite holding pattern as a Soviet satellite and aware of their position in the world. How much the general population of North Korea is aware of and will react to the reality of their surroundings would make all the difference.

[airshifter]

The 'west' doesn't care about the situation the N.Korean peoples find themselves in at all. They've effectly been abandoned to their fate.

I can't agree with that. I for one would prefer that the people of North Korea see sanctions lifted and are inspired by hope for a better life. I don't want to see any human suffer if it can be prevented, and in this case I think it could easily be prevented if the leadership of the country would quit living in the stone age.

It would also affect any of those that actually are fearful of N. Korea. This might not be a lot of people, but that is easy for use to assume from long distances away.

[Malbec]

I'm not so worried about North Korea's infrastructure. Everything there is as old and dilapidated as East Germany was and would need total renovation anyway. Could South Korea not afford it? In the early 1990s there was a lot of doubt about West Germany handling modernization as well but it was done. South Korea makes a ton of cheap stuff and sells it all over the world, so I wouldn't doubt their ability to channel their energy into modernizing the North. The real sticking point would be the mentality of North Korea's leaders and general population, the latter being the big unknown factor.

The commanders of the police and military in East Germany didn't put up much if any resistance to unification. Militarily there wasn't a lot of development anyway because the Soviets never considered the bulk of the East German military to be anything other than a potential stab in the back. The police organizations were only concerned with erasing the evidence of their work before it was made public. North Korean commanders have a lot more freedom and power (odd, that) than their East German counterparts to continue a fight, particularly since they are conditioned for it (again, unlike East Germany).

The really big unknown is what the general population of North Korea think. East Germans more or less knew they were in an indefinite holding pattern as a Soviet satellite and aware of their position in the world. How much the general population of North Korea is aware of and will react to the reality of their surroundings would make all the difference.

A few comparitive figures.

Population of West Germany 1989 60 million. Population of East Germany 16 million
Population of South Korea 2012 50 million. Population of North Korea 24 million

So West Germany absorbed a state 1/4 of its size while South Korea is expected to absorb one half its size.

GDP of West Germany 1990 $15,000 per capita. GDP of East Germany $10,000 per capita
GDP of South Korea 2010 $30,000 per capita. GDP of North Korea $4,000

So East Germany had a GDP per capita roughly 2/3 that of West Germany whilst North Korea has one between 1/7 and 1/8 that of South Korea.

East Germany had been heavily subsidised by the Soviets as the model Socialist state because it was clear people would make a direct comparison with their West German cousins regarding the superiority of the Socialist system vs capitalism. East Germans had the highest standard of living in East Europe and had a large export driven economy that supplied the Communist bloc. More importantly for this comparison and unlike North Korea East Germans took clean water and electricity for granted and did not suffer famines that resulted in 100,000s of deaths on a regular basis. There really is no comparison between East Germany and North Korea at all. Even then East German states today after over $1 trillion in investment have much higher unemployment figures compared to former West German ones, and the East still has a stagnating economy while Western German states post decent growth rates.

West Germany had the luxury of complete political solidarity with its neighbours who were equally economically developed via the EU. South Korea on the other hand has poor relationships with China, Russia and Japan who will all naturally be asked to help out. If and when these countries chip in they will extract their pound of flesh from South Korea in return for their investment.

I'm sure South Korea will ask the US to help, in which case the amount of money they are likely to request will dwarf what the US gives Israel and Egypt. How long will the US population be able to stomach that as they fork out another $500 for a Samsung S4?

BTW I find it difficult to agree with your description of the East German security forces. The military were the best equipped outside the Soviet Union and were expected to take full part in an invasion of the West or a defence of the East. The East German intelligence organisations were legendary, pulling off operations that the KGB and CIA could only admire overseas and keeping a tight lid at home. They did fear retribution from West Germany especially as Marcus Wolfe, head of the East German intelligence services was tried and convicted of treason and imprisoned despite arguing that the country he was convicted of treason against did not exist until 1990.

East Germans weren't in a holding pattern, they knew how good things were in West Germany, watched Western TV where and when they could and wanted reunification which is why when they realised Gorbachov wouldn't back a government crackdown on dissent they took things into their own hands and tore the wall down. I don't think North Koreans are filled with such warm feelings towards the South, and if they want reunification I feel they want it on their terms.

[BDunnell]

Did that take more than 10 years to stabilize? Has it fully stabilized now, 20-some years on?

Depends what you mean by 'stabilised'. Of course, the unified Germany was never unstable in the way in which we use the term to describe, for instance, Iraq and Afghanistan; however, there remain very deep economic and social differences between the two 'halves'. However, I wouldn't compare East Germany to North Korea.

[BDunnell]

East Germans weren't in a holding pattern, they knew how good things were in West Germany, watched Western TV where and when they could and wanted reunification which is why when they realised Gorbachov wouldn't back a government crackdown on dissent they took things into their own hands and tore the wall down. I don't think North Koreans are filled with such warm feelings towards the South, and if they want reunification I feel they want it on their terms.

A bit of a generalisation, if I may say so. Not all East Germans were filled with warm feelings towards the West, and this to some extent remains the case today — to us, given what we know of the East German regime, this may seem bizarre, but it's very much the case. One can justify this nostalgia for the 'good old days' on several grounds: that there was a certain stability associated with living in such a country as East Germany if you didn't rock the boat, and, most crucially, that East Germany was for all its faults their homeland, their country, which suddenly was erased from the map. Difficult things for anyone to come to terms with. It's when these views are expressed without seemingly any thought as to the underlying nature of the regime that I find them extremely problematic — and I have heard former East Germans, to say nothing of naive British academics, doing just that. I would imagine that the same things would be true for North Koreans, for whom I feel very sorry indeed.

[BDunnell]

I'm not so worried about North Korea's infrastructure. Everything there is as old and dilapidated as East Germany was and would need total renovation anyway.

Well, some East German infrastructure was of that sort, granted. However, we're talking almost 25 years ago in the case of East Germany, where there was also some useful, even modern, industry in a few fields such as optics.



The commanders of the police and military in East Germany didn't put up much if any resistance to unification. Militarily there wasn't a lot of development anyway because the Soviets never considered the bulk of the East German military to be anything other than a potential stab in the back.

Not really accurate, I'm afraid. The East German military was often among the first in the Warsaw Pact to receive new equipment, given its position very much on the front line.

[Gregor-y]

That's quite different from some fellow students from East Germany that attended my college. Granted they were conscripts (or whatever the equivalent was) but were also officers mainly because of their education. I was working with the overall impression they gave about their training, equipment, deployments and attitudes of any Russians they met. Perhaps there was a higher profile, more fanatical group similar to the Iraqi Republican Guard?

[Valve Bounce]

I can't agree with that. I for one would prefer that the people of North Korea see sanctions lifted and are inspired by hope for a better life. I don't want to see any human suffer if it can be prevented, and in this case I think it could easily be prevented if the leadership of the country would quit living in the stone age.

It would also affect any of those that actually are fearful of N. Korea. This might not be a lot of people, but that is easy for use to assume from long distances away.

It appears that North Korea has upped the ante : North Korea says it can't assure the safety of embassies in Pyongyang after April 10, and is urging Britain, Russia and other European nations to evacuate diplomatic staff amid soaring nuclear tensions.

One wonders who the leadership of the country really is, or even was.
Kim's father was a puppet, kept happy with a most expensive wine and liquor collection while he was credited with all the decisions the generals made. This included creating a well trained and well fed army while the rest of the nation starved. Propaganda was the name of the game, and Kim jong-il was touted as the greatest golfer in the world. having scored 18 holes- in-one in his only golf game.
Jong-un was no smarter, having been sent to the US where he lived it up as a student and enjoyed basketball. (watching, that is). Then his father died, the leadership had to create someone they could use as a front man. So Jong-un had to be given a new image: he was fattened up, and they used plastic surgery to give him a double chin and a weird hairdo to make him stand out.
I won't go into the Dennis Rodman farce again, as I stand by my two previous posts on this point. All I can add was what I heard on the news yesterday when Rodman said Kim Jong-un was a great man and very humble. No! I don't know what Dennis was smoking or taking at the time - but his exploits through the years tell the tale.

I can add one narrative about Koreans which might give some a better understanding of these people. We had an American Consultant on one of the World Bank Highway jobs; let's call him Chuck. One day, Chuck inspected a bridge column's footing on a stream and found there was a large hole beneath the footing; basically half the footing was not supported at all. So Chuck goes to the Korean Government Resident Engineer and tells him about this hole. The Korean RE then asks the Contractor if there is a hole beneath the footing, and the Contractor says NO!. An exasperated Chuck then asks the RE to come with him to see the hole, and the RE replies: "There is no hole, so there is no need to go and see it!" In this way, the Korean RE did not lose face.

I have many stories saved up from my time in Korea, including the time I saved the Project Engineer from being stabbed to death by his Korean wife, but that is another story. Suffice to say that those who meet Koreans away from Korea have little understanding of how Koreans think. And those that have worked with Koreans for many years in Korea havn't that much greater understanding either.

[Tazio]

http://cdn.someecards.com/someecards/filestorage/north-korea-workplace-boss-egomaniac-funny-ecard-ecards-someecards.png

[D-Type]

Can somebody please clarify, with illustrative anecdotes if necessary, what they understand 'not losing face' to mean in a Far Eastern cultural context. Having worked for a Japanese company for seven years and worked in Pacific rim countries for a total of a further year or so, I have an inkling but I'd welcome other opinions.

To understand what Kim Jong-un and his government are up to I think an appreciation of the 'face thing' is vital.

[markabilly]

I don't think it would be that bad tbh. If the North Korean government were to vanish overnight it wouldn't then become an ungovernable state with warlords trying to take control like Somalia etc. The North Koreans (most of them) would look towards South Korea, who would have (relatively) little trouble taking over the running of the North. Yes there would be mass migration to the South - and perhaps China, initially, but as proper governance established itself in the North the new Korea within 10 years would emerge a richer nation than it is now.


Yes. I think/hope it would go like the German reunification.


As firstgear says it sounds like you're using the German reunification as a template. I don't think it would go that way.

Chronologically I think it will go as follows:

The North Koreans are starving. If the state breaks down they will move to where there is food. This means China and South Korea and it will be an instant refugee crisis that would make Syria look like a walk in the park. South Korean and Chinese forces are going to have to move in very quickly to restore order and distribute food too.

North Korean security personnel are not going to turn up to work if the state breaks down. Like the Iraqi state security apparatus personnel before them, once the end of their state becomes clear they will be concerned about their own personal safety and will disappear. If the fear of direct reprisals by the North Koreans they oppressed and tortured doesn't scare them they will assume the South Koreans will hunt them down and subject them to 'justice'. After all that is what they would do if the roles were reversed. What caused the biggest problem in Iraq after the invasion was that the Americans assumed the police etc would keep turning up to work. Instead they melted away and anarchy happened. This will happen in North Korea too. I wouldn't rule out attacks on incoming South Korean or international workers either, after all this is a country that requested food aid from Japan and then impounded and imprisoned the sailors on board once the shipments arrived. They have a serious siege mentality and it would be naive to expect that to disappear overnight.

Assuming this initial phase is dealt with then North Korea will have to be reassimilated with the South. North Korea is nothing like East Germany, South Korea is no West Germany (big brands excepted), it isn't anywhere near as large or productive. South Korea's economy would struggle to cope with the cost even with inevitable Chinese, American and Japanese financial support.

To some degree West Germany was able to recoup some of the costs of reunification by having access to a large new market thanks to the breakdown of the Berlin wall, both in East Germany and in the rest of Eastern Europe. South Korea will only get access to North Korea, a market with no money whatsoever beyond what the South Koreans give it.

North Korea has barely fixed the damage caused by the war 60 years ago. Most of the country doesn't have electricity outside the cities. They still use steam trains to some extent. There is barely any industry and what there is is stone age. Modernising North Korea isn't going to be a case of shutting down or privatising all the state owned companies like it was in East Germany, it involves dragging a country from the 1950s into the modern era and building infrastructure up from scratch. And again that doesn't count the cost of sorting out the mess when the entire North Korean state disappears overnight. It also assumes the lack of an organised resistance sabotaging modernisation efforts which I don't think you can rule out.

Then long term there is the psychological aspect of dealing with an entire population that has been brainwashed to hate the outside world and live in fear of the state in complete isolation from the outside world. I don't think any other society has been brainwashed like this for so long. I'm sure the majority will slowly acclimatise to living in a democratic capitalistic society but I'm also sure a significant minority will have serious problems. What will that cause? No idea. Are North Korean workers going to be literate and therefore usable as cheap labour for companies like Samsung? They might be but I doubt the typical North Korean is as skilled or educated as their former East German counterparts.

All of North Korea's immediate neighbours are either democratic or are run by a president with a fixed term (China). It isn't a coincidence that all the surrounding leaders are happy to keep North Korea's government propped up so that a collapse isn't a problem that has to be dealt with on their watch.

All good points except for one thing I learned from several different soldiers posted over there for duty.

There has historically been a big division between the people in the mountains (North & poor and not well off) and the ones in the South (farmers on good land, and much better off).

They hate each other, much like the history of the Irish and the British, as well as the Irish Catholics and Protestants. This has been true for centuries, long before Karl Marx was born

At some point that attitude may go away with younger generations....but until then :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

[Valve Bounce]

Can somebody please clarify, with illustrative anecdotes if necessary, what they understand 'not losing face' to mean in a Far Eastern cultural context. Having worked for a Japanese company for seven years and worked in Pacific rim countries for a total of a further year or so, I have an inkling but I'd welcome other opinions.

To understand what Kim Jong-un and his government are up to I think an appreciation of the 'face thing' is vital.

Loss of face to Asians is far more serious than to westerners. It is utter humiliation caused to a person or persons. And from memory of the description given in a book by the American headmaster of the American school in Seoul : It is like what a sick dog feels when it just wants to go in a corner and hide and wants to be left alone. In Korean society, loss of face is extremely serious.

There was one case where the station master in Seoul prided himself of the fact that the show piece train that came up from near Kwanju always arrived on time - exactly. One day, due to some troubles down the line the train was 10 minutes late. The Station Master suffered extreme loss of face and committed suicide (I think he hung himself) in shame.

[Starter]

Loss of face to Asians is far more serious than to westerners. It is utter humiliation caused to a person or persons. And from memory of the description given in a book by the American headmaster of the American school in Seoul : It is like what a sick dog feels when it just wants to go in a corner and hide and wants to be left alone. In Korean society, loss of face is extremely serious.

There was one case where the station master in Seoul prided himself of the fact that the show piece train that came up from near Kwanju always arrived on time - exactly. One day, due to some troubles down the line the train was 10 minutes late. The Station Master suffered extreme loss of face and committed suicide (I think he hung himself) in shame.
I had thought that "face" was a more important part of Japanese culture rather than Korean. But I could well be in error as I've only spent a couple of weeks in Seoul and only a day or so in the countryside. Very limited exposure and I've spent no time in Japan.

[Valve Bounce]

I had thought that "face" was a more important part of Japanese culture rather than Korean. But I could well be in error as I've only spent a couple of weeks in Seoul and only a day or so in the countryside. Very limited exposure and I've spent no time in Japan.

You have to remember that the Koreans were under Japanese occupation for many, many years.

On another note, even with Western Society, loss of face occurs, and here is a good example of loss of face: Post-match: Demons - AFL.com.au (http://www.afl.com.au/video/2013-04-06/postmatch-demons)

Try to imagine how the Melbourne Demons coach felt after the shellacking last night.

[Rollo]

"My advice is that that is mischief making by the Government of North Korea and there are no other countries represented in Pyongyang that are confirming there are war preparations underway; That doesn't diminish our concerns, of course.
...
"Another missile test is certainly more likely than an attack ... either on the US mainland or US facilities in the Pacific like Guam. I think you have to say that the regime is not likely to be suicidal. It may be reckless, or bellicose but not suicidal."
- Bob Carr, Australian Foreign Minister, 07-04-13

I think I have to agree with him. It would be idiotic for Pyongyang to think about attacking anyone and I think that they think, that everyone thinks that they think that that is the case. Pyongyang is currently like a one legged man in a bum kicking competition; if they try anything, then that'll end up well won't it?

[BDunnell]

With reference to the above, I agree, and this view was reinforced by a report on Radio 4 this morning about North Korean news. Apparently the country's bulletins are leading on very mundane matters relating to art exhibitions and the like, with only minor mentions of the tensions between North and South. Despite the nature of the regime, one might expect the North Korean public to be fed its bellicose rhetoric — unless said rhetoric is intended mainly for external consumption.

[Malbec]

With reference to the above, I agree, and this view was reinforced by a report on Radio 4 this morning about North Korean news. Apparently the country's bulletins are leading on very mundane matters relating to art exhibitions and the like, with only minor mentions of the tensions between North and South. Despite the nature of the regime, one might expect the North Korean public to be fed its bellicose rhetoric — unless said rhetoric is intended mainly for external consumption.

Likewise the Economist correspondent in Pyongyang reports that civilians there are not preparing for any military action and that the city workers are busier preparing spring decorations than civil defenses. Nor have the CIA or the South Korean intelligence services detected any movement of the 1.1 million North Korean conventional forces towards the border and North Korean reserves remain thoroughly reserved.

Its notable in fact that Pyongyang has over the past few weeks threatened armageddon but in terms of concrete action have done next to nothing, certainly nowhere near as much as they did in 2010.

I think increasingly that Kim the 3rd wants money from the South and the USA. He'll probably offer them negotiations as a sign that he's peace loving at heart and agree to terms that North Korea can easily backpedal on such as stopping an expansion of his nuclear programme in return for aid. In a few years we'll see another similar crisis when he wants more money again.

The question North Korea's neighbours have to ask themselves is which is worse? Effectively engaging in appeasement to their threats by playing their game and giving them aid or possibly provoking a collapse in their regime and having to deal with the consequences. I suspect the US will broker a solution that will involve the North Koreans backing down first and several months later see sanctions eased and aid increased. Orientals are hardly the only ones who have a desire to 'save face'.

[Starter]

You have to remember that the Koreans were under Japanese occupation for many, many years.
A very good point, which I should have thought of. Duh!

[racerdude]

they may be able to get on across the border to S Kor but there are so many antimissiles pointed at them, they would never get on out of the country.

This really scares me. Got relatives in S. Korea... N. Korea is really silent. IMO, China, though their allies... won't be helping them if a war broke out. They're part of UN and I just hope they're really peacekeepers and all about balance. I don't know much about these things, but I do hope, war won't break. It is not a good way to end humanity...or the world.

[anthonyvop]

And Obama Blinks....

U.S. Delays Missile Test Over Tension With North Korea : NPR (http://www.npr.org/2013/04/06/176455606/u-s-delays-missile-test-over-tension-with-north-korea)

Can't say I am surprised. I was expecting it from the guy who implied that the world would love us if he was President.

[BDunnell]

And Obama Blinks....

U.S. Delays Missile Test Over Tension With North Korea : NPR (http://www.npr.org/2013/04/06/176455606/u-s-delays-missile-test-over-tension-with-north-korea)

Can't say I am surprised. I was expecting it from the guy who implied that the world would love us if he was President.

A fairly pointless gesture; nor one that matters much, though, given that it must be considered extremely doubtful that the North Koreans are going to do anything.

[Mark]

Well someone had to blink eventually if we are to avoid war. Might as well let the North Koreans think they've 'won'.

[anthonyvop]

Well someone had to blink eventually if we are to avoid war. Might as well let the North Koreans think they've 'won'.




Yea...Appeasement always works.


Please note my distinct and clear, sarcasm to display my utter contempt for your opinion on this matter and those who agree with you.

[D-Type]

What's your solution then?

A pre-emptive nuclear attack on North Korea? Plus one on China at the same time - just in case? And on the White House - just because ...

[Rollo]

Re: Mr Vop.

Are we to take it then, that you think going to war and spending money profligately is an absolute necessity?

[Starter]

What's your solution then?

A pre-emptive nuclear attack on North Korea? Plus one on China at the same time - just in case? And on the White House - just because ...
The first two don't sound bad and the third sounds even better (no matter who the current occupant is), though Congress might be the more worthwhile target. :p :D

[anthonyvop]

What's your solution then?

A pre-emptive nuclear attack on North Korea? Plus one on China at the same time - just in case? And on the White House - just because ...

My Solution?

Continue the small shows of force while using diplomatic Channels to explain to them that we know they want some free stuff but this time they will have to give as well as take.

And if they try anything that it will be their leaders and their leaders property that we will turn into a mix of dust and goo from 1000's or miles away via remote control.

[BDunnell]

Yea...Appeasement always works.


Please note my distinct and clear, sarcasm to display my utter contempt for your opinion on this matter and those who agree with you.

Generally, Tony, there ought not to be any need to indicate when you're being sarcastic. Well done for upholding the stereotype of Americans not 'getting' irony.

It's a shame I feel the need to say that, as I would tend to agree with your view as expressed above of what to do.

[BDunnell]

Re: Mr Vop.

Are we to take it then, that you think going to war and spending money profligately is an absolute necessity?

I feel he probably does, on the grounds that he is someone deeply impressed by the notion of taking military action.

[Valve Bounce]

Yea...Appeasement always works.


Please note my distinct and clear, sarcasm to display my utter contempt for your opinion on this matter and those who agree with you.

Sorry about that Anthony, but I guess you can add me to Mark's list. I don't think there was any appeasement whatsoever, but what the US did was give thick as two planks Kim a hollow victory so that he can tell his people that he 'won', they can be happy, and maybe he can meet his best friend loco Rodman again and give him a hug in secret.

Far better for the brain washed North Koreans to believe they have saved face, than to have nuclear bombs scattered by misfiring North Korean missiles all over the Asia Pacific region on innocent bystanders. Not to mention how this would affect the HK stock market.

If you have read my posts above, then maybe you will have an idea where I come from. Just think: one nuclear bomb dropped on North Korea could kill well over a million people, and I don't think we want that, do we?

[Valve Bounce]

My Solution?

Continue the small shows of force while using diplomatic Channels to explain to them that we know they want some free stuff but this time they will have to give as well as take.

And if they try anything that it will be their leaders and their leaders property that we will turn into a mix of dust and goo from 1000's or miles away via remote control.

The last part of your solution troubles me. Let me explain: there are two classes of people in North Korea - the well fed army who are mostly brain washed fanatics, but who, by clapping along with the Generals as ordered, get to eat food and survive in reasonable health.
Then, sadly, there is the populace, starving (some starving to death) who have no choice but to live or die in the most difficult circumstances.
So if and when the remote button is pressed, I'm afraid that the nuclear warhead doesn't choose who will live and who will die, and many of these innocent peasants will be annihilated. I just can't go along with that, so if the President of the USA has to pretend to give some concession so that peace prevails, then I think that way (appeasement) is by far the better solution.

[Malbec]

The last part of your solution troubles me. Let me explain: there are two classes of people in North Korea - the well fed army who are mostly brain washed fanatics, but who, by clapping along with the Generals as ordered, get to eat food and survive in reasonable health.
Then, sadly, there is the populace, starving (some starving to death) who have no choice but to live or die in the most difficult circumstances.
So if and when the remote button is pressed, I'm afraid that the nuclear warhead doesn't choose who will live and who will die, and many of these innocent peasants will be annihilated. I just can't go along with that, so if the President of the USA has to pretend to give some concession so that peace prevails, then I think that way (appeasement) is by far the better solution.

Exactly where on this thread has anyone advocated launching a pre-emptive nuclear strike on North Korea? Informing the North that if they backup their threats with action they will be toast was done a week ago when two B2s flew from the continental USA to drop dummy bombs on pretend North Korean targets. There is nothing wrong with reminding them through diplomatic channels as well that playing hardball will result in North Korea being wiped off the map whilst offering them a solution with aid. Contrary to your opinion Kim isn't thick, nor are the North Korean military ignorant of their chances of winning any kind of war against either the South nor the US. This sabre-rattling of theirs is an effort to prolong the life of their regime by getting money and not shorten it.

[Valve Bounce]

Contrary to your opinion Kim isn't thick, nor are the North Korean military ignorant of their chances of winning any kind of war against either the South nor the US. This sabre-rattling of theirs is an effort to prolong the life of their regime by getting money and not shorten it.

Any so called Great Leader who runs up to a nutter like Dennis Rodman and cuddles him, hugs him and regards him as his new best friend is Thick as two planks. But, humor me : show me the evidence you have that Kim is intelligent. Which Kim? Take your pick: Jong-il or Jong-un.

[Malbec]

Any so called Great Leader who runs up to a nutter like Dennis Rodman and cuddles him, hugs him and regards him as his new best friend is Thick as two planks. But, humor me : show me the evidence you have that Kim is intelligent. Which Kim? Take your pick: Jong-il or Jong-un.

I forgot about your basketball black player hypothesis as to the root cause of this crisis.

Lets take all the Kims. The fact that that family still rules North Korea remaining in charge of the military for a start, surviving and crushing any attempt to usurp them. The fact that they've survived the downfall of their powerful sponsors in the USSR and China's increasing irritation and cutting of funding while others in the same position like the entire Eastern Bloc and Middle East dropped like flies (name a single dictatorial dynasty that has lasted as long please). That they have still somehow managed to procur nuclear weapons where far more technologically advanced countries like Iran have failed and continue to have difficulties. That they can play the sabre-rattling game with neighbours and the USA that have played the game many times before yet still manage to win concessions every time.

I don't doubt that the Kims have been bizarre in their tastes and behaviour but to call them stupid is to underestimate them massively.

[Valve Bounce]

I don't doubt that the Kims have been bizarre in their tastes and behaviour but to call them stupid is to underestimate them massively.

I don't see why. These two Kims were puppets of the Generals. Show me where they showed signs of intelligence! I know that Jon-un's father was the greatest golfer in the world: in his only game of golf, he hit 18 holes-in-one. :rotflmao:

[Valve Bounce]

Exactly where on this thread has anyone advocated launching a pre-emptive nuclear strike on North Korea? .

On the previous page. :rolleyes:

[Malbec]

I don't see why. These two Kims were puppets of the Generals.

Analysis from South Korean intelligence and the CIA disagrees. The generals know where they stand, if they cause trouble and the government falls they are as dead as the Kims.


Show me where they showed signs of intelligence! I know that Jon-un's father was the greatest golfer in the world: in his only game of golf, he hit 18 holes-in-one. :rotflmao:

So you're unable to tell the difference between politics and propaganda? As for the signs you asked for, try not to ignore the paragraph I wrote about the sentence you quoted. You think staying in command of a vicious dictatorship is easy?

[Malbec]

On the previous page. :rolleyes:

Read again.

Antonyvop's post states that the US should REMIND North Korea it can be wiped off the map, not that America should do so.

[Mark]

Yea...Appeasement always works.
Please note my distinct and clear, sarcasm to display my utter contempt for your opinion on this matter and those who agree with you.

It's clear enough don't worry. As for appeasement, well that's what they've been doing for the past 50 years isn't it? And I think 'containment' is the current strategy anyway.

[Garry Walker]

I don't see why. These two Kims were puppets of the Generals. Show me where they showed signs of intelligence! So you think they are both idiots? Good good, do you have any proof for that or is that simply your opinion based on nothing?


I know that Jon-un's father was the greatest golfer in the world: in his only game of golf, he hit 18 holes-in-one. :rotflmao: Is that your proof of their supposed stupidity? Really?


And Obama Blinks....

U.S. Delays Missile Test Over Tension With North Korea : NPR (http://www.npr.org/2013/04/06/176455606/u-s-delays-missile-test-over-tension-with-north-korea)

Can't say I am surprised. I was expecting it from the guy who implied that the world would love us if he was President. No surprise indeed.


What's your solution then?

Not bending over. The rulers there have far more to lose, they have zero chance of winning any war against US. US has to make it clear that any provocation will lead to immediate response from them and not a weak one at that. Of course, with someone like Barry at the helm of US, having a backbone is probably hard to expect.

[anthonyvop]

Generally, Tony, there ought not to be any need to indicate when you're being sarcastic. Well done for upholding the stereotype of Americans not 'getting' irony.



Ahhhh...It wouldn't be a real thread here unless you got some US bashing in.

[anthonyvop]

The last part of your solution troubles me. Let me explain: there are two classes of people in North Korea - the well fed army who are mostly brain washed fanatics, but who, by clapping along with the Generals as ordered, get to eat food and survive in reasonable health.
Then, sadly, there is the populace, starving (some starving to death) who have no choice but to live or die in the most difficult circumstances.
So if and when the remote button is pressed, I'm afraid that the nuclear warhead doesn't choose who will live and who will die, and many of these innocent peasants will be annihilated. I just can't go along with that, so if the President of the USA has to pretend to give some concession so that peace prevails, then I think that way (appeasement) is by far the better solution.

I never mentioned nuclear weapons nor did I imply it.

It is the typical knee-jerk reaction of the left who always jumps to those conclusions so as to use it an excuse to feel some sort of warped moral superiority.

So go back and re-think your post.

[BDunnell]

Ahhhh...It wouldn't be a real thread here unless you got some US bashing in.

No, I was having a go at you, not your whole country.

[Valve Bounce]

I never mentioned nuclear weapons nor did I imply it.

It is the typical knee-jerk reaction of the left who always jumps to those conclusions so as to use it an excuse to feel some sort of warped moral superiority.

So go back and re-think your post.

Perhaps you could clarify exactly what you meant by this: And if they try anything that it will be their leaders and their leaders property that we will turn into a mix of dust and goo from 1000's or miles away via remote control.

I mistakenly assumed that if you were going to attack from thousands of miles away by remote control, to turn people and property into a mix of dust and goo, then it would have to be with something pretty powerful.

[Valve Bounce]

Analysis from South Korean intelligence and the CIA disagrees. The generals know where they stand, if they cause trouble and the government falls they are as dead as the Kims.





Well, if you are privy to South Korean Intelligence and CIA intelligence, perhaps you could share it with us. I must admit here and now that I do not have access to such secret analyses.

[anthonyvop]

Perhaps you could clarify exactly what you meant by this: And if they try anything that it will be their leaders and their leaders property that we will turn into a mix of dust and goo from 1000's or miles away via remote control.

I mistakenly assumed that if you were going to attack from thousands of miles away by remote control, to turn people and property into a mix of dust and goo, then it would have to be with something pretty powerful.

I see you are just another one of those who comment about military issues yet know nothing about it.

A few Hellfire Missiles fired from some Predator Drone would get the result I am looking for.

[Valve Bounce]

I see you are just another one of those who comment about military issues yet know nothing about it.

A few Hellfire Missiles fired from some Predator Drone would get the result I am looking for.

I bow to superior knowledge. :(

[Malbec]

Well, if you are privy to South Korean Intelligence and CIA intelligence, perhaps you could share it with us. I must admit here and now that I do not have access to such secret analyses.

I would recommend reading some analytical style articles where sources from both South Korean and US intelligence services are prepared to discuss the outlines of how they believe the North Korean state works. They hardly keep their opinions a closely guarded secret.

[Mark]

It's interesting to note that this conflict (or potential conflict) is one of the many long lasting after affects of World War II, parts of which are still being played out to this day.

[Valve Bounce]

I would recommend reading some analytical style articles where sources from both South Korean and US intelligence services are prepared to discuss the outlines of how they believe the North Korean state works. They hardly keep their opinions a closely guarded secret.

I don't take much notice of reports about propaganda. I thought you had the good oil on stuff the rest of us don't know about. Secret stuff and all that.

[BDunnell]

I don't take much notice of reports about propaganda. I thought you had the good oil on stuff the rest of us don't know about. Secret stuff and all that.

Well, that was hardly likely, was it? Many news reports on the situation have made reference to information clearly derived from intelligence assessments as to what's going on in North Korea.

[ShiftingGears]

I don't take much notice of reports about propaganda. I thought you had the good oil on stuff the rest of us don't know about. Secret stuff and all that.

I hear they directly attribute this entire situation to Dennis Rodman's visit.

[Starter]

It's interesting to note that this conflict (or potential conflict) is one of the many long lasting after affects of World War II, parts of which are still being played out to this day.
That's right on the money. The Arab & Palestine situation is the other current biggie.

[Knock-on]

Actually, the conflict is still ongoing. The end of the Korean war never got ratified so technically is still going on.

[schmenke]

Yeah, that’s correct. The two sides signed a cease-fire agreement in 1952(?) but a peace agreement has never been signed, so technically they are still at war :mark: .

[Valve Bounce]

Yeah, that’s correct. The two sides signed a cease-fire agreement in 1952(?) but a peace agreement has never been signed, so technically they are still at war :mark: .

Didn't Kil il-loco just rip that up recently?

[Valve Bounce]

I would recommend reading some analytical style articles where sources from both South Korean and US intelligence services are prepared to discuss the outlines of how they believe the North Korean state works. They hardly keep their opinions a closely guarded secret.

Just by chance, I came across this article in todays News: Starved of food, starved of the truth: How Kim Jong-un suppresses his people | News.com.au (http://www.news.com.au/world-news/starved-of-food-starved-of-the-truth-how-kim-jong-un-suppresses-his-people/story-fndir2ev-1226616134393)

I was horrified and greatly saddened. The closing of borders simply means more people will starve to death. I really don't know what the solution is. Maybe there isn't any.

[Valve Bounce]

................and now this expose from a former North Korean spy: Kim Jong-un 'struggling': former North Korean spy (http://www.theage.com.au/world/kim-jongun-struggling-former-north-korean-spy-20130410-2hlwx.html)

While I have little doubt that this was released by the South Korean Government to embarrass the North's ruling clique, I think the manner Kim Jong-un has been fashioned as a puppet by those with vested interests cannot be totally overlooked. How much power Jon-un has directly is a mystery. Let's all hope he doesn't press the button to impress his "handlers".

[Starter]

................and now this expose from a former North Korean spy: Kim Jong-un 'struggling': former North Korean spy (http://www.theage.com.au/world/kim-jongun-struggling-former-north-korean-spy-20130410-2hlwx.html)

While I have little doubt that this was released by the South Korean Government to embarrass the North's ruling clique, I think the manner Kim Jong-un has been fashioned as a puppet by those with vested interests cannot be totally overlooked. How much power Jon-un has directly is a mystery. Let's all hope he doesn't press the button to impress his "handlers".
I doubt very much that someone who has been "out of the loop" for so long has reliable information.

It's doubtful that the generals have a totally united stand and it will depend quite a bit on how well Kim lll can form alliances among them as to how his future goes. No matter how you cut it, it's going to be "interesting".

[Valve Bounce]

I doubt very much that someone who has been "out of the loop" for so long has reliable information.

It's doubtful that the generals have a totally united stand and it will depend quite a bit on how well Kim lll can form alliances among them as to how his future goes. No matter how you cut it, it's going to be "interesting".

just found an interesting article in The Australian Newspaper but could not find it in the online version. It was credited to The Times so I checked out the times and here is part of it:Cookies must be enabled. | The Australian (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/upstart-playboy-behind-pyongyang-rants-say-analysts/story-fnb64oi6-1226617215924)

[Gregor-y]

What's a crisis without humor?
http://i.imgur.com/6m9WWXd.gif

[steveaki13]

It's interesting to note that this conflict (or potential conflict) is one of the many long lasting after affects of World War II, parts of which are still being played out to this day.

It is very interesting to see how the tapestry of the Human world interlinks. Something like WW2 is never going to leave the world the same and some of these things as you say clearly have a long way to go before being sorted once and for all.

[steveaki13]

Its a fact we have had inicidents and manovering like this over the years, but the US and South Korea have to take precautions.

We dont really know in what state the leaders of North Korea are in. I mean its easy to say they are just Crackers with no real ability to go ahead with there plans, or equally that they know exactly what the score is and it could be different this time.

The truth is no one can be 100% sure, so therefore precautions must be taken.

I still think China are showing themselves up here. I mean the way China have advanced and grown and developed links with the west, would mean the last thing they need is there close neighbour getting into a nuclear war with the US, and that for me makes there apparent lack of activity in this situation amazing.

China need North Korea to pipe down and as there closest allie they have the influence to end this if they choose to.

[Valve Bounce]

North Korea doesn't have the capability to win any all out war against South Korea or anyone else. BUT they have the capability to do a helluva lot of damage if they started pressing buttons and send dirty bombs on their errant way. The papers here have jokes about the wrong person pressing the wrong button, but when you think about it, this will not be a joke if they did.

[D-Type]

I think we can expect the MAD principle will keep things in check.

'MAD' (= mutually assured destruction) is in effect saying "If you hit me with everything you've got, I'll stiill be able to nuke you back". If North Korea does launch a nuclear attack, on behalf of South Korea the USA will nuke them. If South Korea launch a military attack on North Korea (let's assume non-nuclear) then North Korea will respond with a nuclear strike. ie it's stalemate.

The only danger arises if one party doesn't accept this and believes they can attack and nip any potential response in the bud.

[steveaki13]

As I said before, China is key and now this.

BBC News - China and US make North Korea nuclear pledge (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22131316)

Its about time a step forward was made. Lets hope this may hold the solution.

[airshifter]

I think we can expect the MAD principle will keep things in check.

'MAD' (= mutually assured destruction) is in effect saying "If you hit me with everything you've got, I'll stiill be able to nuke you back". If North Korea does launch a nuclear attack, on behalf of South Korea the USA will nuke them. If South Korea launch a military attack on North Korea (let's assume non-nuclear) then North Korea will respond with a nuclear strike. ie it's stalemate.

The only danger arises if one party doesn't accept this and believes they can attack and nip any potential response in the bud.

To be honest I think that even if the North Koreans launched a nuke, it would not be responded to by any western nation. Having spent some time in S Korea and Okinawa, Japan, it's clear that the western nations have a huge advantage in technology. Essentially every military asset in N Korea is pre-targeted and most could readily be disabled without nukes.

Between the poor guidance systems and ability of the missiles and the anti missile assets of the west, there is also the very strong chance that anything launched from the north would not hit it's target and be destroyed in the air. A few years back the north had a series of missile failures soon after certain assets were moved into the region.

[D-Type]

What are you trying to say?

Your first sentence says that North Korea could launch a nuke with impunity. Then the rest of the post says they couldn't.

Are you trying to say that the anti-missile measures in place in S Korea and Japan mean that if North Korea launched a missile it would be shot down in flight? So no risk of nuclear escalation.

[anthonyvop]

Manages to appease two potential enemies.....Why am I not surprised?

Obama to Sacrifice Asian Missile Defense Systems in Exchange for China (http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2013/04/obama-to-sacrifice-asia-missile-defense-systems-in-exchange-for-chinas-help-with-north-korea/)


http://www.thoseshirts.com/images/square-large-wbc.jpg

[Malbec]

Manages to appease two potential enemies.....Why am I not surprised?

Obama to Sacrifice Asian Missile Defense Systems in Exchange for China (http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2013/04/obama-to-sacrifice-asia-missile-defense-systems-in-exchange-for-chinas-help-with-north-korea/)


http://www.thoseshirts.com/images/square-large-wbc.jpg

Brilliant diplomacy.

America's missile defence systems can be bartered away because both South Korea and Japan have their own systems in place, including Aegis and THAAD which Japan helped develop jointly with the US specifically with today's situation in mind.

China thinks its getting a compromise from the US but in terms of missile interception capability little will have changed.

[Rollo]

Manages to appease two potential enemies.....Why am I not surprised?

I don't understand, I thought you were in favour of reducing government spending.

[anthonyvop]

Brilliant diplomacy.

America's missile defence systems can be bartered away because both South Korea and Japan have their own systems in place, including Aegis and THAAD which Japan helped develop jointly with the US specifically with today's situation in mind.

China thinks its getting a compromise from the US but in terms of missile interception capability little will have changed.

Thats right. Screw Guam and Hawaii.


BTW Aegis and THAAD are both US programs and are the main components of the Missile defense that Obama wants to offer up. There are no THAAD systems in or under control by Japan or South Korea and Japan only has 4 Frigates equipped with AEGIS systems.

Basically he is pulling a Carter and offering up another case of an ultra Left Wing President selling out our allies to appease the "Peace at all costs" crowd.


I don't understand, I thought you were in favour of reducing government spending.

I do.

But I also believe in keeping our promises to our allies. At a time where the US should be standing firm Obama is pulling act that would even make Neville Chamberlain shake his head in disgust if he was alive today.

[Gregor-y]

Basically he is pulling a Carter and offering up another case of an ultra Left Wing President selling out our allies to appease the "Peace at all costs" crowd.

But I also believe in keeping our promises to our allies. At a time where the US should be standing firm Obama is pulling act that would even make Neville Chamberlain shake his head in disgust if he was alive today.
It's kind of funny, but this logic and word choice is on pretty much on par with the North Korean media. :)

[airshifter]

What are you trying to say?

Your first sentence says that North Korea could launch a nuke with impunity. Then the rest of the post says they couldn't.

Are you trying to say that the anti-missile measures in place in S Korea and Japan mean that if North Korea launched a missile it would be shot down in flight? So no risk of nuclear escalation.

Part of the wording in my original post was poor and unclear. What I intended to communicate was that I don't think the west would mount an immediate nuclear response. Between the poor targeting abilities of the North, the lesser missile tech, the lesser intelligence and recon assets, etc. that there is a good chance a nuke fired from the North would not find it's true target and would inflict far fewer casualties than a nuclear strike from a better developed program.

I also think that if a nuke did hit home things would get ugly very quickly. When I was in Japan and Korea we had access to the military assessments of such a conflict and they aren't pretty. As an example it was estimated that in less that 5 minutes (assuming a high alert status of both sides) air to air combat and air strikes well across borders would be taking place.

But my primary point is that if the North launches a nuke I think there is already sufficient diplomacy in place that would keep China from intervention during the initial return of military hostilities from the western nations. Though I am no longer "in the loop" to the classified information I once had access to, it's a reasonable assumption that intelligence and assets have been strengthened since that time. The North does have a solid military, but they lack proper leadership and motivation. I personally think that while their assets are being torn to pieces (think Gulf War with total air superiority but on a more intense tempo) that their armies and civilian population would quickly be subject to the "propaganda" of truth with access to the outside worlds real standards of living and other such luxuries.



Consider this. You are a North Korean and have been lied to most of your life and led to think that your standard of living is good if not high. You cross a border carrying a weapon with the intent shared by your fellow soldiers... to kill those evil scared people living to your south. You may advance for some period of time, but you watch a lot of your fellow soldiers falling to technologies you have never seen, much less have an understanding for. If and when time allows, you may even watch live uncensored television in a shop front that paints a picture much different than the one you have been shown all your life.

With this newfound information, where does your motivation go, especially if your "aggressors" are witnessed caring not only for their dead and injured, but those from your country as well?

[Starter]

In the event that N Korea were to launch any kind of nuclear strike, and especially one against S Korea, China would be on them in a second. They are next door and the fallout could easily drift into their territory, so they have a vested interest in seeing that does not happen. A ground attack might be a somewhat different story. Seoul is so close to the border it probably would be overrun the same day before opposition could halt the advance. I don't think China would be very pleased by it, but they might sit by and watch.

[BDunnell]

The North does have a solid military, but they lack proper leadership and motivation.

The North's military is far from solid. Its air force, for example, is reliant on largely very aged equipment, and I would doubt its capabilities in all respects except sheer numerical strength.

[steveaki13]

While the threat of a nuclear weapon is concerning, as for other aspects of weapons used by North Korea's military. Some are ancient and in the event of a war with the South they would be of little use.

[Starter]

While the threat of a nuclear weapon is concerning, as for other aspects of weapons used by North Korea's military. Some are ancient and in the event of a war with the South they would be of little use.
A million soldiers crossing the border at one time would be concerning if they were armed with rocks and spears.

[airshifter]

The North's military is far from solid. Its air force, for example, is reliant on largely very aged equipment, and I would doubt its capabilities in all respects except sheer numerical strength.

This has been the case for many years, however the sheer numbers are the strong point. Keep in mind that our military training in the region was based on the current intelligence on the situation, and those sheer numbers alone are somewhat disturbing if they can remain motivated and not all defect once across the border.

[D-Type]

While the threat of a nuclear weapon is concerning, as for other aspects of weapons used by North Korea's military. Some are ancient and in the event of a war with the South they would be of little use.

Don't underrate "out of date" weapons. As we, and the Russians before us, found in Afghanistan in the hands of someone who knows how to use them out-of-date guns are still effective. As Starter and Airshifter have said, couple that with the sheer numbers and the North Korean army cannot be ignored.

[BDunnell]

This has been the case for many years, however the sheer numbers are the strong point. Keep in mind that our military training in the region was based on the current intelligence on the situation, and those sheer numbers alone are somewhat disturbing if they can remain motivated and not all defect once across the border.

There have also been reports, though, of intelligence relating to North Korean military exercises showing that the performance of the armed forces has been, shall we say, less than optimal. In the case of North Korea's air force, many aircraft have been cannibalised for spares, and the numbers actually airworthy are hampered both by this and shortages of fuel and spares. One would expect similar problems also to afflict the other branches of the country's armed services.

[BDunnell]

Don't underrate "out of date" weapons. As we, and the Russians before us, found in Afghanistan in the hands of someone who knows how to use them out-of-date guns are still effective.

If they work.

[Knock-on]

I don't think the Nuclear threat from NK is credible. It's the threat itself that is Kims bargaining chip. Unless he's completely bonkers, he will know that every advanced missile system around him is pointing right up his chuff. Furthermore, the Air assault would be immediate.

Within 48 hours, they would have crippled his Land, sea and Air bases and associated Hardware, any missle or 'research' sites, fuel, logistics, communications and anything more advanced than a catapult. The shock and awe would be total with minimal loss of life.

Then there is a million Soldiers who would be pretty disheartened and would lack central direction. I should imagine the whole conflict would last 2 weeks max before total capitulation.

So, what about tradittional warefare. Again, it would be easilly contained but with a higher loss of life and possibly more prolonged.

So, unless he's Looney Tunes, then it's brinkmanship and back to negiotiating the best deal he can.

[Brown, Jon Brow]

Maybe the U.S would be up for a little bit of air war, to show the world what the 5th generation of jet fighters can do.

[Malbec]

A million soldiers crossing the border at one time would be concerning if they were armed with rocks and spears.

Lets not get carried away here.

North Korea has 1.1 million in its armed forces. Only a fraction of that total are likely to be frontline troops as (with every other army) most will be logistics and other back office types without which no large organisation can function.

Then there is the need that no self-respecting dictator would ever forget but which democratic governments rarely concern themselves with, which is that all parts of the country must have a strong enough military presence to put down a rebellion at all times. That reduces the number of troops available for any attack. In North Korea's case there is also the need to keep a substantial number of troops on the Chinese and Russian borders, not to keep enemies out but to keep the people within.

At most the North Koreans will be able to muster a few hundred thousand men, likely with patchy armour support and next to no air-support. Given that the border between the two nations is one of the most heavily defended and mined on the planet a ground attack would be lucky to penetrate more than a few miles into South Korean territory.

Add to that the logistical nightmare of getting a starving army battleready with enough fuel and supplies to attempt an attack and you can see how difficult it would be for the North Koreans to try anything.

A few years after Gulf War 1 as a propaganda effort Saddam moved one of his elite Republican Guard divisions from close to Baghdad to the west of Iraq in a move of solidarity with the Palestinians who were undergoing another Israeli clampdown. Despite being richer and more developed than North Korea despite sanctions, and despite it being peacetime it took nearly 6 months to complete the move. Its easy to underestimate the logistics challenge poor countries face. Even the US and UK took over 6 months to acquire sufficient supplies and place them in the desert for Gulf War 2, and that was with a decent amount of pre-positioned equipment.

But just as last week it seems that North Korean troops are making no moves towards the border, in fact the only increased conventional military activity (as opposed to nuclear or missile testing) has been to do with Kim Jong Il's birthday anniversary yesterday. There simply are no signs that North Korea is preparing any kind of attack, and given the poor preparedness of both their military and economy we would be able to detect peripheral signs of a preparation for war months if not years ahead.

[Starter]

Lets not get carried away here.

North Korea has 1.1 million in its armed forces. Only a fraction of that total are likely to be frontline troops as (with every other army) most will be logistics and other back office types without which no large organisation can function.

Then there is the need that no self-respecting dictator would ever forget but which democratic governments rarely concern themselves with, which is that all parts of the country must have a strong enough military presence to put down a rebellion at all times. That reduces the number of troops available for any attack. In North Korea's case there is also the need to keep a substantial number of troops on the Chinese and Russian borders, not to keep enemies out but to keep the people within.

At most the North Koreans will be able to muster a few hundred thousand men, likely with patchy armour support and next to no air-support. Given that the border between the two nations is one of the most heavily defended and mined on the planet a ground attack would be lucky to penetrate more than a few miles into South Korean territory.

Add to that the logistical nightmare of getting a starving army battleready with enough fuel and supplies to attempt an attack and you can see how difficult it would be for the North Koreans to try anything.

A few years after Gulf War 1 as a propaganda effort Saddam moved one of his elite Republican Guard divisions from close to Baghdad to the west of Iraq in a move of solidarity with the Palestinians who were undergoing another Israeli clampdown. Despite being richer and more developed than North Korea despite sanctions, and despite it being peacetime it took nearly 6 months to complete the move. Its easy to underestimate the logistics challenge poor countries face. Even the US and UK took over 6 months to acquire sufficient supplies and place them in the desert for Gulf War 2, and that was with a decent amount of pre-positioned equipment.

But just as last week it seems that North Korean troops are making no moves towards the border, in fact the only increased conventional military activity (as opposed to nuclear or missile testing) has been to do with Kim Jong Il's birthday anniversary yesterday. There simply are no signs that North Korea is preparing any kind of attack, and given the poor preparedness of both their military and economy we would be able to detect peripheral signs of a preparation for war months if not years ahead.
Underestimating your enemy's capacity has been the downfall of many a nation.

Your statement "Add to that the logistical nightmare of getting a starving army battle ready with enough fuel and supplies to attempt an attack..." is untrue asone of the main reasons the rest of that country is starving is because the army isn't.

[Malbec]

Your statement "Add to that the logistical nightmare of getting a starving army battle ready with enough fuel and supplies to attempt an attack..." is untrue asone of the main reasons the rest of that country is starving is because the army isn't.

Actually it is in terms of calorie intake although it is better fed than the rest of the nation. Amassing enough food supplies to ensure that soldiers can operate on a higher calorie intake military action would need would require diverting more food from the civilian population, something that intelligence services can detect. Ditto fuel.

North Korean army 'split' over Kim Jong-un - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/9981866/North-Korean-army-split-over-Kim-Jong-un.html)

Regardless it does not change the fact that the idea of one million soldiers being available to attack the South is fanciful, even if there was evidence that they were actually preparing for one.

[Gregor-y]

I like the knock-off Ilyushin 28s. How very 1958 of them.

[BDunnell]

Underestimating your enemy's capacity has been the downfall of many a nation.

Your statement "Add to that the logistical nightmare of getting a starving army battle ready with enough fuel and supplies to attempt an attack..." is untrue asone of the main reasons the rest of that country is starving is because the army isn't.

That — and Malbec's subsequent comment — may be all very well, but the North Korean military is hardly well-resourced in the important respects of equipment, fuel, spares, etc. This much seems quite clear. It's not an Iran situation, where the uninitiated observer might conclude that ageing, semi-derelict equipment, for which spares supplies have been restricted by sanctions, is the order of the day, but where in fact Iranian industry has done some impressive work to keep it functioning and thus at a high state of readiness.

[BDunnell]

At most the North Koreans will be able to muster a few hundred thousand men, likely with patchy armour support and next to no air-support. Given that the border between the two nations is one of the most heavily defended and mined on the planet a ground attack would be lucky to penetrate more than a few miles into South Korean territory.

The notion of which I know is that troop-carrying Antonov An-2 biplanes — of which North Korea has a nominally enormous fleet — would spearhead an airborne assault across the border. This I can see being potentially somewhat problematic, as they would be a little difficult for conventional combat aircraft to counter, given their slow speed, small radar signature and so forth. However, as you say, the lack of signs of any preparation for such an attack render the possibility most unlikely.

[Lee23]

I bit this will turn into WW3, North Korea and China vs Europe. I wouldnt be surprised!

[henners88]

8 posts and counting, woo hoo!!

[BleAivano]

So what is going on with NK? Suddenly it became very quiet about NK.
I assume that it means NK no longers is a threat?

Or is it because of the bombs at Boston, media no longer needs to "fabricate"
stories about NK to fill their news paper and front pages?

[BDunnell]

So what is going on with NK? Suddenly it became very quiet about NK.
I assume that it means NK no longers is a threat?

Or is it because of the bombs at Boston, media no longer needs to "fabricate"
stories about NK to fill their news paper and front pages?

The news has naturally moved on to other matters. And, perhaps more to the point, nothing has actually happened in North Korea; nor would it seem very likely to.

[Koz]

Or is it because of the bombs at Boston, media no longer needs to "fabricate"
stories about NK to fill their news paper and front pages?

I think it was all internal propaganda more than anything else. The news media reporting everything with so much hype opened an outlet for foreign posturing, too.

Then again didn't Kerry say something about going back to the negotiating table while in Japan?
Bending the knee, and satisfying the almighty leader's ego. So a bit of both.

[Knock-on]

I like the knock-off

I think that's a distant relative of mine :D

[steveaki13]

I know its an old thread.

But as usually happens we lose any news on whats happening over there.

Does anyone know what the situation is now.

[Starter]

I know its an old thread.

But as usually happens we lose any news on whats happening over there.

Does anyone know what the situation is now.
It's calmed down a bit. NK is allegedly wanting talks, but the US doesn't believe them. They (NK) may feel they've pushed it as far as prudent now. Still, an unresolved issue which will certainly rear it's head again.

[Roamy]

who gives a rat's ass about these mopes - with the number of anti missiles pointed at them they could not get a launch out of their own country. chewing gum for the press!

[Mark]

who gives a rat's ass about these mopes - with the number of anti missiles pointed at them they could not get a launch out of their own country. chewing gum for the press!


This is true. NK just like to make themselves known occasionally.

[Breeze]

Rhetorically speaking, I've always wondered why people like the Kims and their military clique would want to so dominate a people, and why so many people would lay down for it? Do they even hold a concept of freedom and individual liberty?

[Corvettian]

Rhetorically speaking, I've always wondered why people like the Kims and their military clique would want to so dominate a people, and why so many people would lay down for it? Do they even hold a concept of freedom and individual liberty?It's really quite simple: all the Government has to do is under-educate the majority of the people, so that they are unable to think for themselves, while blanketing the media with biased reporting and "approved" TV programs. The people are then made to think that the government IS the country; that is to say, anybody who dares to speak out against the government is seen as being critical of the country as a whole, and is therefore "unpatriotic". This is quite a common ploy in countries ruled by, or which have been ruled by, dictators.
The select few who are "allowed" a decent education are imbued with a particularly zealous patriotism because, after all, didn't the wonderful system make it possible for them to be where they are now?

[D-Type]

It's really quite simple: all the Government has to do is under-educate the majority of the people, so that they are unable to think for themselves, while blanketing the media with biased reporting and "approved" TV programs. The people are then made to think that the government IS the country; that is to say, anybody who dares to speak out against the government is seen as being critical of the country as a whole, and is therefore "unpatriotic". This is quite a common ploy in countries ruled by, or which have been ruled by, dictators.
The select few who are "allowed" a decent education are imbued with a particularly zealous patriotism because, after all, didn't the wonderful system make it possible for them to be where they are now?
Sounds like the USA. The only difference is that these things are determined by a "free market"

[Corvettian]

Sounds like the USA. The only difference is that these things are determined by a "free market"
In fact, I was thinking of Brazil as I wrote that. I've spent quite a bit of time there and until a few weeks ago I was really frustrated about Brazilians' unwillingness to stand up and demand better for themselves from a corrupt, patronizing government. Then they actually went and started protesting and demanding change; I was gobsmacked, but pleased at the same time!
It's interesting that people in countries which enjoy "freedom" often become so blasé about it that the very same freedom is gradually eroded until suddenly they are being TOLD what to do by some unpleasant characters. If and when "democracy" returns, it takes a long, long time to cleanse the system of totalitarianism; however, yet again people seem content just to accept whatever people tell them. Why do we not question more??