Remember the pre-season predictions? Time to see how wrong we were.

[rjbetty]

This is what I posted here before the season began...

MY QUALIFYING PREDICTION
1.Sebastian VETTEL (Red Bull)
2.Lewis HAMILTON (McLaren) +0.17
3.Mark WEBBER (Red Bull) +0.24
4.Jenson BUTTON (McLaren) +0.28
5.Fernando ALONSO (Ferrari) +0.54
6.Nico ROSBERG (Mercedes) +0.60
7.Felipe MASSA (Ferrari) +0.78
8.Michael SCHUMACHER (Mercedes) +0.88
9.Kimi RAIKKONEN (Lotus) +0.90
10.Romain GROSJEAN (Lotus) +1.20
11.Nico HULKENBERG (Force India) +1.41
12.Paul DI RESTA (Force India) +1.47
13.Sergio PEREZ (Sauber) +1.74
14.Pastor MALDONADO (Williams) +1.76
15.Bruno SENNA (Williams) +1.78
16.Jean-Eric VERGNE (Toro Rosso) +1.94
17.Kamui KOBAYASHI (Sauber) +1.94
18.Daniel RICCIARDO (Toro Rosso) +2.02
19.Heikki KOVALAINEN (Caterham) +2.48
20.Vitaly PETROV (Caterham) +2.84
21.Timo GLOCK (Marussia) +4.82
22.Charles PIC (Marussia) +5.34
23.Pedro DE LA ROSA (HRT) +5.64
24.Narain KARTHIKEYAN (HRT) +6.28

And this is how it turned out:
1.Hamilton - Average 1:30.277
2.Vettel +0.124
3.Webber +0.329
4.Button +0.381
5.Alonso +0.442
6.Maldonado +0.587
7.Raikkonen +0.591
8.Grosjean +0.600 (roughly)
9.Rosberg +0.680
10.Schumacher +0.772
11.Massa +0.790
12.Hulkenberg +0.812
13.Perez +0.841
14.di Resta +0.962
15.Kobayashi +1.046
16.Senna +1.373
17.Ricciardo +1.423
18.Vergne +1.851
19.Kovalainen +3.088
20.Petrov +3.301
21.Glock +4.139
22.Pic +4.679
23.de la Rosa +5.073
24.Karthikeyan +5.649

[rjbetty]

MY CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTION
DRIVERS
1.Sebastian VETTEL (Red Bull) 312pts
2.Lewis HAMILTON (McLaren) 297pts
3.Jenson BUTTON (McLaren) 291pts
4.Mark WEBBER (Red Bull) 234pts
5.Fernando ALONSO (Ferrari) 214pts
6.Michael SCHUMACHER (Mercedes) 142pts
7.Felipe MASSA (Ferrari) 124pts
8.Nico ROSBERG (Mercedes) 118pts
9.Kimi RAIKKONEN (Lotus) 74pts
10.Paul DI RESTA (Force India) 48pts
11.Romain GROSJEAN (Lotus) 38pts
12.Nico HULKENBERG (Force India) 32pts
13.Sergio PEREZ (Sauber) 23pts
14.Kamui KOBAYASHI (Sauber) 19pts
15.Jean-Eric VERGNE (Toro Rosso) 15pts
16.Bruno SENNA (Williams) 14pts
17.Daniel RICCIARDO (Toro Rosso) 10pts
18.Pastor MALDONADO (Williams) 9pts
19.Heikki KOVALAINEN (Caterham) 4pts
20.Vitaly PETROV (Caterham)
21.Timo GLOCK (Marussia)
22.Charles PIC (Marussia)
23.Pedro DE LA ROSA (HRT)
24.Narain KARTHIKEYAN (HRT)

But this is how it turned out...

1.Vettel 281pts
2.Alonso 278pts
3.Raikkonen 207pts
4.Hamilton 190pts
5.Button 188pts
6.Webber 179pts
7.Massa 122pts
8.Grosjean 96pts
9.Rosberg 93pts
10.Perez 66pts
11.Hulkenberg 63pts
12.Kobayashi 60pts
13.Schumacher 49pts
14.di Resta 46pts
15.Maldonado 45pts
16.Senna 31pts
17.Vergne 16pts
18.Ricciardo 10pts
19.Petrov
20.Glock
21.Pic
22.Kovalainen
23.D'Ambrosio
24.Karthikeyan
25.de la Rosa


MY CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTION
CONSTRUCTORS Actual pts/Prediction
1.McLaren - Mercedes 588pts/386pts
2.Red Bull - Renault 546pts/460pts
3.Ferrari 338pts/400pts
4.Mercedes 260pts/142pts
5.Lotus - Renault 112pts/303pts
6.Force India - Mercedes 80pts/109pts
7.Sauber - Ferrari 42pts/126pts
8.Toro Rosso - Ferrari 25pts/26pts
9.Williams - Renault 23pts/76pts
10.Caterham - Renault 4pts/0pts (sigh)
11.Marussia - Cosworth
12.HRT - Cosworth

1.I'm pleased that I correctly guessed the champion.
2.I remember my prediction of Alonso for 4th caused a surprise, especially from Jens :) but who'd have expected he would almost go on to win it?!!
3.Also correctly guessed Hamilton being one place and a few pts ahead of Jenson, but they both scored 100pts less than predicted!!
4.But I stuck my neck out and risked putting Schumacher for 6th in the WDC. He came nowhere near as it turns out... (though it was almost all the car's fault. He would probably have won Monaco).
5.Got Massa right in 7th :) . In fact he only scored 2pts less than I put (124pts)
6.Rosberg also got less pts than I put here, capping a disappointing season for Mercedes though the first half of the season was easily their best performance in their 3 years so far.
7.I tipped Romain Grosjean to impress and possibly outperform Kimi in the first half of the season. I could have had no idea of just how brilliant he would be (if you take out the many mistakes...) For the first 8 races, he was never far from victory(!) and should have won Valencia probably. His comeback drive at Silverstone was really something too. It's a shame he faded so badly after Hungary...
8.Kimi was very impressive too, but I feel maybe both these drivers are taking the performance of their car for granted. I think it was James Allison who said before the season that this years Lotus was like their 2005 car. He was right, because it was the best-handling and smoothest machine on the grid and always there. They probably had the best car in the first half of the season. Kimi was often slower than Grosjean, but his consistency and racecraft were of the highest level. Even so, I get fed up of people declaring he's the best driver out there. First, let him better what Alonso did in the Ferrari, and then I might take notice.
9.I rate Nico Hulkenberg highly, but after a slow (but very solid) start, he performed much better than I expected against Paul di Resta, clearly besting him in every area; More points, Highest finishes, Highest qualifying etc. His Brazil drive was incredible; the fact he made a tiny slip on a wet patch has been harshly judged by people I feel; that was so easily done and I just know I would have done the same thing (if I was ever that fast)! A giant-killing performance, and I'm really pleased for him!
10.I tipped Sauber to slip backwards - they promptly went on to produce their best ever car - and that includes from the BMW era. Should have won a few races but Kobayashi in particular was weak.
11.For Toro Rosso I predicted Vergne 15pts, Ricciardo 10pts. I was 1pt short for Vergne. But Ricciardo clearly eclipsed him in qualifying, which I got wrong.
12.Though 2012 was surely going to be some improvement for Williams, I would never have expected they would win a race on merit. My prediction of 9pts for Maldonado is laughable now. He scored many times that total despite doing his best to throw away the car's potential. Happily I was very wrong here. I'm kicking myself now, as before the season I was going to buy shares in Williams, who had just come off their worst ever season and were not looking good (the prices were just under £25). I wonder how much they're worth now... I bet I could be a millionaire now. ;(
13.As for Caterham, they closed the gap, but boy were they disappointing. As it happened they weren't really anywhere near the points, or the teams in front of them. They had a chance in Valencia and actually came extremely close in Brazil in the end... Shame their getting rid of Kovalainen and basically using the 2012 car next year...

[jens]

Incredible that Maldonado was on average 6th fastest qualifier this year!

I am not going to dig out my predictions, but from what I can remember, Alonso certainly exceeded expectations. Can never underestimate the Ferrari-Alonso package. Even if they underperform (by their standards), they are still usually good enough to challenge for podiums.

Generally I think the whole field was much closer than anticipated before the season. Williams getting a win, Sauber 4 podiums, Lotus 10 podiums ?? Wow, certainly didn't expect that. Perhaps Mercedes' 3 podiums would have felt plausible. :D

[Wasted Talent]

Good review.

I'm looking forward to your 2013 predictions already.

WT

[call_me_andrew]

I predicted Vettel would win the championship and I was right; however, I also predicted Vettel to win next year's championship within the same sentence.

Clearly, I got a little cocky.

[zako85]

Incredible that Maldonado was on average 6th fastest qualifier this year!



Too bad he hasn't converted this into a solid WDC position. This only shows that he can be very fast, but runs into too much trouble when racing other cars. Was he doing the same in GP2?

[rjbetty]

Too bad he hasn't converted this into a solid WDC position. This only shows that he can be very fast, but runs into too much trouble when racing other cars. Was he doing the same in GP2?

Don't know? But I found it interesting to remember the other day when Hamilton was doing GP2, he was absolutely mega-fast but made a big meal out of winning the title, making lots of silly mistakes etc when he could have had the title wrapped up nearer to halfway through. I remember at the time Autosport saying F1 won't be so forgiving of that kind of business... (being super fast but haemorrhaging tons of points often).

[keysersoze]

I did OK, but nothing to write home about:

Red Bull: I pretty much saw it this way.
Ferrari: I didn't think Phil would get beat down like he did.
McLaren: although Lewis was clearly quicker (I predicted this), the final points were quite close (I didn't predict that).
Mercedes: I felt Michael would be closer in terms of pace, and he was.
Lotus: I thought Romain would beat Kimi, but that it would be close. I gave RG too much credit as a racer.
Williams: I always felt Pastor was better than the pundits gave him credit for, but I didn't expect him to have so much pace. I like this guy.
Force India: Nico got beat by Barrichello IIRC, so I thought Paul would have the advantage early.
Toro Rosso: made no prediction
Caterham: This was about how I saw it. I'm glad Vitaly "proved" himself against another seasoned driver (first Kubica, then Heidfeld).
Marussia: I predicted Pic would get on terms with Glock and I was almost right. Timo was faster over the course of the season, but CP shoned.
HRT: I gave Narain no chance, so he surprised me by beating PdlR a couple of times.

[rjbetty]

You did pretty well Keys, but what about Sauber? I would have to tip them to go backwards the very year they build their best ever car.

I remember declaring confidently on here words to the effect of Caterham are so certain to finally get in the points this year, and possibly more than just 1 or 2, that I would eat my hat if they didn't. *sighs* :( *eats hat* :s ailor:

[dj_bytedisaster]

Do you want fries with (t)hat? :D

[rjbetty]

Yes please, and plenty of barbecue sauce to disguise the taste of polyester/cotton/etc.

[keysersoze]

You did pretty well Keys, but what about Sauber? I would have to tip them to go backwards the very year they build their best ever car.


Oops, forgot about Sauber. I certainly didn't think Sergio would emerge as the rising star that he became. I might have predicted 50 points between the two--blew that one. I should have known that Sauber would once again make the most of their resources.