Kim Jong-Il dies - what now for North Korea?

[Rollo]

The ABC:
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il dead - World (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-19/north-korean-leader-kim-jong-il-dead/3738526?section=world)
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has died, a tearful state television announcer dressed in black reported.
The announcer said that the 69-year-old had died of physical and mental over-work while on a train trip, on his way to give "field guidance".

The BBC:
BBC News - N Korean leader Kim Jong-il dies (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16239693)
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has died at the age of 69, state-run television has announced.
Mr Kim, who has led the communist nation since the death of his father in 1994, died on a train while visiting an area outside the capital, the announcement said.

The Age:
North Korean leader Kim Jong Il dead (http://www.theage.com.au/world/kim-jong-il-dead-20111219-1p1sk.html)
Kim Jong Il, the second-generation North Korean dictator who defied global condemnation to build nuclear weapons while his people starved, has died, Yonhap News reported.
He is believed to have been 70 years old, although North Korean official records said he was 69 years old.

The news came in a radio broadcast at noon local time, Yonhap reported, citing North Korea's official media. The veteran leader died on December 17 at 8.30am, a weeping announcer said, Agence France-Presse reported.

Three separate sources all reputable and all reporting the same thing. I think it's safe to assume that this is the genuine article.

I can only hope that this is the beginning of North Korea's acceptance back into the free-world and the reunification process; maybe even bringing back the Emperor. Hopefully Seoul and Pyongyang will start talks more or less immediately to finally get rid of the stupid line that separates the two Koreas.

[anthonyvop]

I can only hope that this is the beginning of North Korea's acceptance back into the free-world and the reunification process; maybe even bringing back the Emperor. Hopefully Seoul and Pyongyang will start talks more or less immediately to finally get rid of the stupid line that separates the two Koreas.


You can hope but I wouldn't hold my breath. In 2010, The Dear Leader announced that his third son, the twenty-something Kim Jong Un, would be his successor, putting him in high-ranking and prominent posts. Every thing I have read about him is that he is as cruel and narcissistic as his father.

[Mark]

Meet the new boss; same as the old boss.

[Bolton Midnight]

Team America: World Police (6/10) Movie CLIP - I'm So Ronery (2004) HD - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEaKX9YYHiQ)

[Malbec]

You can hope but I wouldn't hold my breath. In 2010, The Dear Leader announced that his third son, the twenty-something Kim Jong Un, would be his successor, putting him in high-ranking and prominent posts. Every thing I have read about him is that he is as cruel and narcissistic as his father.

I suspect things might get worse especially over the short term. Kim Jong Il was supposed to be smart and quite well informed while we don't know whether his son has the same skills. Also his son will surely want to throw his weight around to make sure there are no power challenges, and he'll most probably do that by doing the usual, provoking trouble with South Korea and everyone else.

[BleAivano]

Meet the new boss; same as the old boss.

well i wouldn't be too sure. I think that the N.K. generals/millitary would like a say in the matter.

[Rudy Tamasz]

Methinks the new regime will give in to international pressure and will announce a transitional period with free elections. The new gov't headed by the former opposition leader (name? in exile or jail?) will start reunification talks with the South. In the meantime the international community will launch a huge relief effort for the millions of starving North Koreans. After the reunification the economy of the North will use its comparative advantage of cheap labor and boom on massive investments from the South and abroad. Former military factories will switch to producing high tech stuff. In ten years we will barely see the difference between the two parts of unified Korea and the Rolling Stones will perform for the first time in Pyongyang.

[Eki]

Methinks the new regime will give in to international pressure and will announce a transitional period with free elections. The new gov't headed by the former opposition leader (name? in exile or jail?) will start reunification talks with the South. In the meantime the international community will launch a huge relief effort for the millions of starving North Koreans. After the reunification the economy of the North will use its comparative advantage of cheap labor and boom on massive investments from the South and abroad. Former military factories will switch to producing high tech stuff. In ten years we will barely see the difference between the two parts of unified Korea and the Rolling Stones will perform for the first time in Pyongyang.
OK, Nostradamus. When will the first North Korean join the Motorsportforums?

[schmenke]

I remember thinking something wasn't quite right when the first Chinese joined our forum, introducing himself as Sum Ting Wong.

[anthonyvop]

Methinks the new regime will give in to international pressure and will announce a transitional period with free elections. The new gov't headed by the former opposition leader (name? in exile or jail?) will start reunification talks with the South. In the meantime the international community will launch a huge relief effort for the millions of starving North Koreans. After the reunification the economy of the North will use its comparative advantage of cheap labor and boom on massive investments from the South and abroad. Former military factories will switch to producing high tech stuff. In ten years we will barely see the difference between the two parts of unified Korea and the Rolling Stones will perform for the first time in Pyongyang.


There hasn't been a North Korean Opposition Leader since the late 1940's. North Korean Society is as closed as a society can get and not even a hint of opposition has been tolerated.

This isn't Czechoslovakia(R.I.P. V Havel) or Poland with access to western ideas, media and people. Even talking to a foreigner in North Korea gets you tossed in Jail to become one of the Disappeared.

There is no way the Military will transition to free elections anytime soon. It would be signing their own arrest warrants and they didn't get to where they are by being stupid.

South Korea will be of no help as the last thing they want is a massive uprising in NK and the millions of refugees it would create....Ditto China.

[Rudy Tamasz]

I see something incredible here, Tony and Eki togeher sharing the same gloomy view of the future of North Koreans. Wake up, guys! Like there was no Summer of Love and no fall of Berlin Wall.

[Eki]

I see something incredible here, Tony and Eki togeher sharing the same gloomy view of the future of North Koreans. Wake up, guys! Like there was no Summer of Love and no fall of Berlin Wall.
I was just asking. No need to be rude.

[Brown, Jon Brow]

North Korea does seem to be Nineteen Eighty-Four.

[Malbec]

Methinks the new regime will give in to international pressure and will announce a transitional period with free elections. The new gov't headed by the former opposition leader (name? in exile or jail?) will start reunification talks with the South. In the meantime the international community will launch a huge relief effort for the millions of starving North Koreans. After the reunification the economy of the North will use its comparative advantage of cheap labor and boom on massive investments from the South and abroad. Former military factories will switch to producing high tech stuff. In ten years we will barely see the difference between the two parts of unified Korea and the Rolling Stones will perform for the first time in Pyongyang.

I thought you had your tongue firmly in your cheek but it seems not... Who is the opposition leader and why do you think he/she has a hope of even getting into the country alive?

If the Koreas reunite the costs will be in excess of the German reunification and a lot of that will be due to the fortress mentality of the northerners who are unbelievably hostile to just about every country other than perhaps China.

[Bolton Midnight]

http://www.demotivationalposters.org/image/demotivational-poster/small/0805/winning-nuclear-explosion-demotivational-poster-1211405876.jpg

WW3 long overdue and I always thought it would be the Yanks

[Rudy Tamasz]

I was just asking. No need to be rude.

Here's the answer. When Red Burr gives them wings...

[Rudy Tamasz]

I thought you had your tongue firmly in your cheek...

The wrong cheek, perhaps. Having gone through an incomplete and painful transition with my country, and having seen what a mess some complete transitions did to post-Communist countries, and knowing for sure it would have been even worse without reforms, I have my feelings split between bitter and sarcastic.

I mean, come on, Stones the messengers of love and peace...

[Mark in Oshawa]

I suspect unless the kid has some soft spot he hasn't shown yet, more of the same...with maybe a desire to test the South again. It could get ugly, but one common thread to communist leaders is when they face total destruction or a war that could depose them, they back right off. He may be smart enough to know if he opens Pandora's Box, the Chinese or rest of the world backing the Americans will crush his little petty dictatorship. Lets face it, they like to survive first......and as for those poor souls who live there...well more of the same.

[Eki]

I predict the first North Korean Formula 1 driver will be Kim Il Räikkönen.

[Dave B]

I predict the first North Korean Formula 1 driver will be Kim Il Räikkönen.

All I know is that State TV will report that he has won every race, and found time to rescue some kittens during the pit stops. All hail our glorious new world champion.

[Rollo]

We learnt during the 2010 that North Korea won the World Cup...
Cup Fever! Address to Nation - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkohSqGOZA&feature=related)

"Suffer Western World"

[Bolton Midnight]

Not to mention what a loss he is to the golfing world, best golfer ever.

[Roamy]

Hey did you see all the people crying - but no tears :)

[Roamy]

http://www.demotivationalposters.org/image/demotivational-poster/small/0805/winning-nuclear-explosion-demotivational-poster-1211405876.jpg

WW3 long overdue and I always thought it would be the Yanks

these little pukes won't be creating any world war. If they could get iran and the pakis to join in it could be one hell of a barbecue though

[Malbec]

The wrong cheek, perhaps. Having gone through an incomplete and painful transition with my country, and having seen what a mess some complete transitions did to post-Communist countries, and knowing for sure it would have been even worse without reforms, I have my feelings split between bitter and sarcastic.

I mean, come on, Stones the messengers of love and peace...

heh, well I think you're right, when the walls finally do come down it will be a mess for everyone. I hope the Kim dynasty lasts as long as possible so we can put that day off a little longer...

[Eki]

heh, well I think you're right, when the walls finally do come down it will be a mess for everyone. I hope the Kim dynasty lasts as long as possible so we can put that day off a little longer...
We could hope for a gradual and controlled transformation, like China has been going through and still is.

[Sonic]

Hey did you see all the people crying - but no tears :)

Incredible right? Although, I dare say a fair few Hollywood A listers could learn a thing or two there for their next acceptance speech! ;)

[Malbec]

We could hope for a gradual and controlled transformation, like China has been going through and still is.

China hasn't transformed politically, it was ruled by Communists with an iron grip and still is.

[Eki]

China hasn't transformed politically, it was ruled by Communists with an iron grip and still is.
Yes, it's still ruled by "Communists" with an iron grip, but politically it has changed a lot. For example China now has more than one million millionaires. In the old days it wouldn't have been possible or even allowed.

China (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-31/china-s-millionaires-jump-past-one-million-on-savings-growth.html)


China has more than a million millionaires as economic growth, savings and a strengthening currency helped swell their ranks by 262,000 last year, according to a Boston Consulting Group survey.
Millionaire households jumped 31 percent in 2010 from the previous year to 1.11 million, the BCG Global Wealth Survey released yesterday showed.
China’s number of millionaire households ranks it third, behind the 5.22 million in the U.S. and Japan’s 1.53 million, according to BCG. Still, wealth in privately held businesses and property wasn’t accounted for in the survey, thereby missing a major chunk of economic assets in the mainland.
“This grossly underestimates true overall wealth in China,” said Tjun Tang, a partner at BCG in Hong Kong and one of the report’s authors. The survey also excludes works of art, fine wines and yachts, a growing class of assets among China’s well-heeled.
China ranks eighth globally for households with assets worth more than $100 million, with 393, according to the survey.
The Asian nation’s affluent class only holds about 5 percent of its wealth offshore, said Tang, and international wealth management companies are constrained by the number of products they can offer inside China.

[BDunnell]

Yes, it's still ruled by "Communists" with an iron grip, but politically it has changed a lot. For example China now has more than one million millionaires. In the old days it wouldn't have been possible or even allowed.

But what political changes has this increasing wealth brought about? For the majority of the population, does it even seem likely to bring any about?

[Malbec]

Yes, it's still ruled by "Communists" with an iron grip, but politically it has changed a lot. For example China now has more than one million millionaires. In the old days it wouldn't have been possible or even allowed.


Economically it has changed a lot which is why there are new millionaires, but there are no new political freedoms.

[Captain VXR]

China hasn't transformed politically, it was ruled by Communists with an iron grip and still is.

however if push came to shove, China would (imo) side against North Korea as much of China's economy relies on selling cheap goods to the western world and its allies, who could purchase from elsewhere - Indian subcontinent, Latin America, Africa etc

[Rudy Tamasz]

heh, well I think you're right, when the walls finally do come down it will be a mess for everyone. I hope the Kim dynasty lasts as long as possible so we can put that day off a little longer...

I don't know what would be better in this case. I guess there is no good solution to the Korean problem, just like there is no good solution to Afghanistan, or Iraq, or Somalia, or you name it.

With all my sarcasm, I feel for common Korean who must be suffering incredibly, often without even realizing it.

[Rudy Tamasz]

Yes, it's still ruled by "Communists" with an iron grip, but politically it has changed a lot. For example China now has more than one million millionaires. In the old days it wouldn't have been possible or even allowed.

China (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-31/china-s-millionaires-jump-past-one-million-on-savings-growth.html)

Another step to world domination. Speaking in F1 terms, they must be spraying champagne from the Great Wall after another GP won.

[Malbec]

however if push came to shove, China would (imo) side against North Korea as much of China's economy relies on selling cheap goods to the western world and its allies, who could purchase from elsewhere - Indian subcontinent, Latin America, Africa etc

If wikileaks is to be believed China already thinks of the North Koreans as a nuisance, not an ally anyway.

I wasn't suggesting that China will assist NK, just that China's political system hasn't changed.

[Mark]

If wikileaks is to be believed China already thinks of the North Koreans as a nuisance, not an ally anyway.

I wasn't suggesting that China will assist NK, just that China's political system hasn't changed.

Well if they'd left well alone in the first place North Korea wouldn't exist - they've got themselves to blame for this one.

[Rollo]

Not to mention what a loss he is to the golfing world, best golfer ever.

38 under was truly an amazing round. This is how BBC Five Live called it:
Kim Jong-il: Golf legend? - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hG9Fq7W3H8Y)

He may have given World No.1 Luke Donald a run for his money.

[Malbec]

Well if they'd left well alone in the first place North Korea wouldn't exist - they've got themselves to blame for this one.

I presume you mean China's decision to intervene in the Korean War. If you want to blame anyone for the Kim dynasty its the Soviet Union who installed him.

I think it was pretty obvious that neither China nor Russia were going to allow a directly neighbouring country to fall into the hands of the US or one of its allies.

That said I think China's behaviour with NK is pretty reasonable, friendly enough not to induce a fit of paranoia in them but able to tell them when they are pushing too far. When it comes to negotiations with NK China is extremely useful.

[BDunnell]

38 under was truly an amazing round. This is how BBC Five Live called it:
Kim Jong-il: Golf legend? - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hG9Fq7W3H8Y)

He may have given World No.1 Luke Donald a run for his money.

And he may even have holed a putt longer than Terry Wogan's famous one.

[Garry Walker]

The ABC:
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il dead - World (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-19/north-korean-leader-kim-jong-il-dead/3738526?section=world)
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has died, a tearful state television announcer dressed in black reported.
The announcer said that the 69-year-old had died of physical and mental over-work while on a train trip, on his way to give "field guidance".

The BBC:
BBC News - N Korean leader Kim Jong-il dies (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16239693)
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has died at the age of 69, state-run television has announced.
Mr Kim, who has led the communist nation since the death of his father in 1994, died on a train while visiting an area outside the capital, the announcement said.

The Age:
North Korean leader Kim Jong Il dead (http://www.theage.com.au/world/kim-jong-il-dead-20111219-1p1sk.html)
Kim Jong Il, the second-generation North Korean dictator who defied global condemnation to build nuclear weapons while his people starved, has died, Yonhap News reported.
He is believed to have been 70 years old, although North Korean official records said he was 69 years old.

The news came in a radio broadcast at noon local time, Yonhap reported, citing North Korea's official media. The veteran leader died on December 17 at 8.30am, a weeping announcer said, Agence France-Presse reported.

Three separate sources all reputable and all reporting the same thing. I think it's safe to assume that this is the genuine article.

I can only hope that this is the beginning of North Korea's acceptance back into the free-world and the reunification process; maybe even bringing back the Emperor. Hopefully Seoul and Pyongyang will start talks more or less immediately to finally get rid of the stupid line that separates the two Koreas.

Late, I know, but what an absolutely awesome christmas present that was. Great news that he finally croaked, awesome.

[odykas]

The dictator is dead, long live the new dictator :p :