Scottish Independence

[Mark]

The Scottish National Party have scored a big victory in the Scottish parliament elections. Despite this mostly being a protest against the LibDems we can be sure that some time during the next 5 years there will be in independence referendum.

Will Scotland vote to leave the United Kingdom? If they do what would be the implications for Scotland, and for the rump UK especially Wales and Northern Ireland.

[Sonic]

We're doomed!

We had a thread on this about 18 months ago and my views haven't changed one bit. We are stronger together.

[driveace]

they will never leave the umbrella of the UK,although all the Scots think that England takes their OIL,if they left the Umbrella,and the funds were not coming from Whitehall,they would be in the sh**

[christophulus]

For me it should be all or nothing. Either they are a part of the UK and get funded from London, or they go fully independent and all funding from London gets cut off - and collect all taxes centrally in Edinburgh or wherever. Any sort of fudged middle ground would be a waste of time - making Scottish decisions with UK money!

[Mark]

You mean like there is now?

[christophulus]

You mean like there is now?

Basically, yes :)

[Captain VXR]

Let them become independent of the UK and EU, then rebuild and fortify Hadrian's wall :angryfire

[Retro Formula 1]

Like Ireland, Greece and Portugal, if they f**k up the eonomy, we will end up bailing them out so the Scottish "Brave Heart" Party might just as well have fun for the next decade for zero risk.

[Rollo]

they will never leave the umbrella of the UK,although all the Scots think that England takes their OIL,if they left the Umbrella,and the funds were not coming from Whitehall,they would be in the sh**

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_mJmwQtPmusk/SK_VVOpagbI/AAAAAAAACKE/XACJt8dUnp0/s400/North-Sea-map.jpg
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/1999/1126/contents/made

There is a "The Scottish Adjacent Waters Boundaries Order 1999" and "The Scottish Adjacent Waters Boundaries Order 1999". Technically 95% of all known oil reserves fall in Scottish Waters.

The SNP ran this campaign in the 1974 General Election.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_BPBojSYFPDw/SZlPZKVljvI/AAAAAAAACOQ/GftH8cRhuHE/s400/scotlands+oil.jpg

If Scotland was to become independent, then there'd probably be a set of international rulings; probably at the ICJ in in The Hague and it would confirm existing legal boundaries.

[yodasarmpit]

You guys do realise that a vote for the SNP is not directly a vote for independence, it merely provides the opportunity for a referendum to be held where we will be given the opportunity to vote on the subject.
A lot of people have voted the SNP because they have proven themselves by governing over the last 4 years, it wasn't just a vote against the Lib Dems, but also against Labour and the Tory pary - in Scotland rather than just a three party state we have four main parties.

Personally, whilst I voted SNP, I won't be voting for independence.

PS, I'm quite disappointed by some of the views expressed in this thread.

[steveaki13]

I think the people of Scotland deserve a chance of independence if that's what the majority want.

I think now that the SNP is in this situation they have to ask the people's opinion just to gauge the support for their next move.

Another point is how will a smaller UK cope without Scotland.

Like the Yes/No to AV referendum, it does no harm to ask.

If the people of Scotland want to break away then they must be able too, but then they must go completley and not try and return if times get tough.

Equally if they want to stay and build a stronger Uk, then that works too.

As for Northern Ireland and Wales, its harder but the same applies.

[Mark in Oshawa]

Well as someone who follows separatist politics here in Canada, I look at Scotland and its place in the UK and I see the same sort of silly games. The SNP has to be VERY clear when they have this referendum. If they try to sell people on the idea that Whitehall will fund their issues while not having a say, they need to be told otherwise. In Canada, the separatist Parti Quebecois and their federal cousins the Bloc Quebecois have always played fast and loose with what separation really means. At least Scotland would have oil revenue. They could in theory pay their own way, but alas, if the oil runs out they will just be a rump outside of the UK.

I love the Scots, I love their spirit but I think they are far better off being part of the UK. Just like many in Quebec know instinctively they are better off in Canada, but keep voting for the radicals so they can extort more.....and now in this last election....the Conservative Majority isn't beholden to them for their majority status with just 4 seats in Quebec. That blackmail thing is now not going to fly....and it the game is a foot! Scotland...stay in the UK. It is a cold and lonely world out there...

[Sonic]

We are all missing the real issue! Our flag would look dreadful without the cross of St.Andrew. ;)

[Retro Formula 1]

You guys do realise that a vote for the SNP is not directly a vote for independence, it merely provides the opportunity for a referendum to be held where we will be given the opportunity to vote on the subject.
A lot of people have voted the SNP because they have proven themselves by governing over the last 4 years, it wasn't just a vote against the Lib Dems, but also against Labour and the Tory pary - in Scotland rather than just a three party state we have four main parties.

Personally, whilst I voted SNP, I won't be voting for independence.

PS, I'm quite disappointed by some of the views expressed in this thread.

I'm sorry you're disappointed and perhaps I was being flippant.

The "Scottish Question" is a conundrum in my opinion and I will explain why.

A vote for the SNP is in my mind a vote for independence. It is a party whose purpose is to campaign for Scottish Independence. To vote for the SNP but not independence makes no sense.

If you mean you want Scottish people running the Scottish Government then you advocate Independence to self govern don't you?

At the moment, Scotland has it's cake and is eating it. You have self government with not only autonomous control but also have influence in the English parliament and benefit from the English infrastructure; the "Umbrella" if you like.

Scotland is either a part of the United Kingdom or an independent Country. From my observations, I see that the Scottish people want it both ways.

[MrMetro]

I'm sorry you're disappointed and perhaps I was being flippant.

The "Scottish Question" is a conundrum in my opinion and I will explain why.

A vote for the SNP is in my mind a vote for independence. It is a party whose purpose is to campaign for Scottish Independence. To vote for the SNP but not independence makes no sense.

If you mean you want Scottish people running the Scottish Government then you advocate Independence to self govern don't you?

At the moment, Scotland has it's cake and is eating it. You have self government with not only autonomous control but also have influence in the English parliament and benefit from the English infrastructure; the "Umbrella" if you like.

Scotland is either a part of the United Kingdom or an independent Country. From my observations, I see that the Scottish people want it both ways.

Well said.

[Daniel]

A vote for the SNP is in my mind a vote for independence. It is a party whose purpose is to campaign for Scottish Independence. To vote for the SNP but not independence makes no sense.

In your mind perhaps. But as yodasarmpit has said, they've proven that they can govern well and that's what people want! Effective government.

[Captain VXR]

PS, I'm quite disappointed by some of the views expressed in this thread.

I was only having a bit of a joke if you're aiming that at me :)

[yodasarmpit]

I'm sorry you're disappointed and perhaps I was being flippant.

The "Scottish Question" is a conundrum in my opinion and I will explain why.

A vote for the SNP is in my mind a vote for independence. It is a party whose purpose is to campaign for Scottish Independence. To vote for the SNP but not independence makes no sense.

If you mean you want Scottish people running the Scottish Government then you advocate Independence to self govern don't you?

At the moment, Scotland has it's cake and is eating it. You have self government with not only autonomous control but also have influence in the English parliament and benefit from the English infrastructure; the "Umbrella" if you like.

Scotland is either a part of the United Kingdom or an independent Country. From my observations, I see that the Scottish people want it both ways.
I agree with you on the "West Lothian Question", however not on the vote for SNP equaling a vote for independence. I just believe out of the four main parties in Scotland the SNP had the best policies, proven track record, and shall deliver the best quality of service for the the area I live in.

Devolved, or regional government does not equate to a desire for full independence - just look at the United States for example, do you think each of the states want independence, or want to have their cake and eat it.

And as for the quotes elsewhere in the thread suggesting that the remainder of the UK prop up the Scottish economy, that's simply untrue.

[Rollo]

We are all missing the real issue! Our flag would look dreadful without the cross of St.Andrew. ;)

Solved!

http://i945.photobucket.com/albums/ad297/rollo75/postscotflag.png

The Cross of England and the Cross of St Patrick remain, and the Green is for Northern Ireland, Wales and British Racing Green :D

[Mark in Oshawa]

I'm sorry you're disappointed and perhaps I was being flippant.

The "Scottish Question" is a conundrum in my opinion and I will explain why.

A vote for the SNP is in my mind a vote for independence. It is a party whose purpose is to campaign for Scottish Independence. To vote for the SNP but not independence makes no sense.

If you mean you want Scottish people running the Scottish Government then you advocate Independence to self govern don't you?

At the moment, Scotland has it's cake and is eating it. You have self government with not only autonomous control but also have influence in the English parliament and benefit from the English infrastructure; the "Umbrella" if you like.

Scotland is either a part of the United Kingdom or an independent Country. From my observations, I see that the Scottish people want it both ways.

In a sense, that is the beauty of never having a referendum with a clear question. You can keep the threat alive to extort more out of the national government. Quebec has done the same to Canada for 40 to 50 years now.....

I hope that the question is asked, it is a clear one, and there is a consequence to it. You either VOTE to get out and get it all over with Scotland, or stay in the UK and shut up. It is a never ending trip to the dentist with this constant bickering and threats by separatist movements.

[Retro Formula 1]

In a sense, that is the beauty of never having a referendum with a clear question. You can keep the threat alive to extort more out of the national government. Quebec has done the same to Canada for 40 to 50 years now.....

I hope that the question is asked, it is a clear one, and there is a consequence to it. You either VOTE to get out and get it all over with Scotland, or stay in the UK and shut up. It is a never ending trip to the dentist with this constant bickering and threats by separatist movements.

I agree Mark.

Personally, I think that if the people of Scotland desire to have a separate Country, then it's up to them. I don't really mind but don't like this half way house where they have all the benefits nd none of the risk.

By voting for the SNP, you are giving them a clear mandate for full independence. It's the corner principle of the SNP; their foundation.

Still, if the Liberals can lie to the electorate and change their mind when it suits them, I suppose the SNP can as well.

[BDunnell]

A vote for the SNP is in my mind a vote for independence. It is a party whose purpose is to campaign for Scottish Independence. To vote for the SNP but not independence makes no sense.

Not everybody believes in everything their political party of choice stands for. There are other reasons why people may want to vote SNP if they so choose.

[BDunnell]

I hope that the question is asked, it is a clear one, and there is a consequence to it. You either VOTE to get out and get it all over with Scotland, or stay in the UK and shut up. It is a never ending trip to the dentist with this constant bickering and threats by separatist movements.

I see what you're getting at, but I don't think it does any actual harm. Personally, I cannot see the Scottish people voting for independence, but if they do, so be it.

[Rollo]

In a sense, that is the beauty of never having a referendum with a clear question. You can keep the threat alive to extort more out of the national government. Quebec has done the same to Canada for 40 to 50 years now...

I think that the biggest difference is that Scotland stands to gain economically from independence whereas I don't think that Quebec necessarily does.

I seem to remember a quote which had something to do with "money and the ethnic vote" or something to that effect, by a chap who looked like a cross between DCI Frost and Poirot in a Political Science class I took. Was that the 1995 referendum?

[Retro Formula 1]

I think that the biggest difference is that Scotland stands to gain economically from independence whereas I don't think that Quebec necessarily does.

I seem to remember a quote which had something to do with "money and the ethnic vote" or something to that effect, by a chap who looked like a cross between DCI Frost and Poirot in a Political Science class I took. Was that the 1995 referendum?

Not too sure how Scotland will benefit economically.

[Mark]

Not too sure how Scotland will benefit economically.

Oil.

[MrMetro]

Oil.

I remember reading this article (http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2007/feb/08/scotland.britishidentity1) a couple of years ago...

[Sonic]

I remember reading this article (http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2007/feb/08/scotland.britishidentity1) a couple of years ago...

Thanks for that.

[Retro Formula 1]

I remember reading this article (http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2007/feb/08/scotland.britishidentity1) a couple of years ago...

That is a pretty good article which highlights the problem quite succinctly but it is rather out of date.

In 2007, the argument for independence was based around establishing a McCeltic Tiger. We have now seen that massive short term growth is susceptable to massive downturn and recession.

"But what about the Oil?" they cry.

North Sea Oil was calculated at 3.5 billion Tonnes but that is now down to reserves of less than 1Bn with the remaining Oil being subject to more cost intensive recovery processes. It is expected that economic recovery of North Sea Oil and Gas will occur by 2020. Hardly a basis for long term strategy.

What about currency? Scotland could not achieve the targets for joining the Euro without the continued UK subsidy with spending at the current level. Are the Scottish people going to accept a reduction of a further 10% in public spending? I should say not.

So, Independence is a bit of a non starter but if you give the SNP enough rope, they may just hang Scotland.

[yodasarmpit]

Oil revenue would play a part, however the GERS doesn't take into account corporation tax payed by larger companies, operating in Scotland, with headquarters in the south. The whole revenue is attributed to the location in which the head office resides.

Another strategy of the SNP is the gradual move away from oil, to more sustainable energies, wind, sea, hydro and so on, which in the future would secure further income.

In addition, the figures mentioned in this thread rely on the same level of taxation, and spending as is currently. One saving would be on the armed forces, no more billions wasted running around the world getting into fights we cannot get out off, with a focus on a smaller defence force.

Lower corporation tax may attract companies not currently based in Scotland.

The problem with trying to calculate the potential for an independent Scotland, is that we are doing so with figures that are based on the needs of the whole of the UK.

I believe independence would be possible and sustainable, but don't have a great desire to divorce from the UK.

[Mark in Oshawa]

I think most of the optimistic figures of Scottish Independence are the issue that I think most Scots will figure out. A nation of 5 or 6 million people in the EC has a chance for sure of surviving if it was created tomorrow. Slovakia proves it has happened in this lifetime, but the Slovaks didn't really win much than the illusion they benefited by their independence. The Czech economy became far more robust for not having to prop up the eastern part of the nation when it left.

In Scotland's case, that oil and gas industry is slowly losing steam. Does Scotland have a manufacturing base? Does it have its economy providing anything besides Scotch that is unique that is drawing in income? Tourism dollars I suppose, but really, is there a driving force in the economy in Scotland that will sustain it in tough times? That is the question people need to answer. They could do as the Irish did, overheat the economy and open the door wide open for business through tax decreases but it has to be done without bloating the civil service or screwing up the housing market, which the Irish did.

I suppose an independent Scotland is more viable now than it was 30 years ago in some senses because of the EC; but I think it would be a tragedy. Like a woman leaving her husband in a mid life crisis after 25 years of marriage, it could be a good or bad decision and no one has the answers for sure. What is more, are the reasons for leaving greater than the reasons for staying?

I think Scotland is best to stay put. The Scot's have been the shoulder the English Lion has leaned on the most in the glory days of the Empire. The Scot's keep the English in line, have given the world some of its great engineers and statesmen; and are seen as unique and wonderful while belonging to the UK. Separation wouldn't accomplish much. Just give a few politicians in the Scottish Parliament more control and London no control. Still not sure how that makes Scotland better....

[Retro Formula 1]

Scotland has more than a Gallon of GTX and a bottle of Glen Moray.

The IT sector is alive and kicking in Silicon Glen and the Finance Industry is thriving but if it were going to go it slone, it would need to get realistic about it's public spending.

[Iain]

Scotland has more than a Gallon of GTX and a bottle of Glen Moray.

The IT sector is alive and kicking in Silicon Glen and the Finance Industry is thriving but if it were going to go it slone, it would need to get realistic about it's public spending.

Silicon Glen is dead, as is Scottish manufacturing. We once had a lot of major international companies in this area with manufacturing facilities, now they're mostly all gone, my own workplace soon to be included in that.

[yodasarmpit]

Silicon Glen has dried up from a manufacturing perspective, replaced with the finance and services sector. IT still accounts for a considerable number of jobs though.