Mubarak GONE - what are the repercussions in other countries?

[Valve Bounce]

Ex President Mubarak of Egypt is gone. I suspect that he had already departed before saying yesterday that he was not leaving, just to make sure that he and his family had safe passage out of Cairo. He is supposedly in Sharm el Sheik but I would not be surprised if he has already ensconced himself somewhere safe in Saudi Arabia.

BUT how will his departure/demise affect other countries?
First of all, Israel would have good reason to worry as the incoming ruling brigade could consider previous agreements with Israel no longer valid. The agreement made by Anwar Sadat and kept by Mubarak excluded troops from entering the Sinai, an agreement made possible after Israel destroyed all military facilities in the Sinai before withdrawing from the area, handing it back to Egypt.

Then, of course, there are other Arab countries such as Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait not to mention Yemen whose citizens could suddenly seek "democracy" having been emboldened by the Egyptian people's achievements.

I do feel that what the people of Egypt have achieved is fantastic and will possibly rid themselves of a despotic and brutal ruler. But how will the new regime regard the USA and how will they regard Israel?

PLease discuss.

[Bob Riebe]

Well hopefully not a replay of this: ROME (AP) — Hundreds of Tunisians arrived by the boatload Friday on a tiny Sicilian island, fleeing chaos in their homeland and prompting Italy to demand that the EU take stronger action to prevent an uncontrolled wave of migrants from North Africa.

Or this: ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — A Turkish court ruled Friday that 133 current and former military officers must be jailed pending the outcome of their trial on charges of plotting to overthrow the government and issued warrants for the arrests of 29 other officers, the state-run Anatolia news agency reported.

[Hondo]

"Every now and then, even a blind squirrel can find an acorn", in others words, "Sometimes you just get lucky".

First and foremost, Mubarak didn't panic and do knee-jerk stupid things. He may have thought " I've been here 30 years, made a pile of money, the gig isn't that much fun anymore and I don't need this crap. His exit was brillant in that nobody knew what he was going to do for sure, until he did it. That alone would have made it difficult for interested parties to detain him.

If he had wanted to stay, he would have fired on the rioters and that would have been the end of it except for strengthing Islam's hand. Shooting the crowds works, and works well and would work well in the other Arab countries you mentioned.

I don't know if Egypt compares to the other Arab nations because it has no wealth. Nothing. It has tourism and that's it. Running Mubarak out of there won't change the reality of the economic situation in Egypt and I don't know where a new government thinks the money will come from to run the place. The west is not only broke, but tired of having their butts kicked about their interference in the region. It's no different than family. If you take money from Mom & Dad, they get to poke around in your life.

I think the situation in Egypt will be worse and radical Islam will take over because they will shoot into the crowds. Obviously the situation for Israel becomes far more dangerous both to them and to the region. Israel will no longer bother with, or feel the need to consult with the west about upcoming or planned operations. They will just be a great, big, honking surprize to everyone when they happen.

[Valve Bounce]

I don't know if Egypt compares to the other Arab nations because it has no wealth. Nothing. It has tourism and that's it. Running Mubarak out of there won't change the reality of the economic situation in Egypt and I don't know where a new government thinks the money will come from to run the place.


I'll just reply to this. Swiss Banks have been reported to have frozen the Mubarak family's accounts in Switzerland which , by accounts from Switzerland, amount to Egypt's national debt. Moreover, the USA have been funneling 1.5 billion dollars to Egypt each year, which have been corruptly acquired by the needy top guys there who divided the takings. Any multi-national wanting to do any business with Egypt had to go through Mubarak's family trust, which means no business was going to succeed.

Now many Egyptians work in Saudi Arabia, doing anything from menial work to Engineering, (I speak from first hand knowledge on this), so kick starting the economy, including tourism, would not be an insurmountable task. Once they get past the corrupt top level money grabbers, then Egypt could have a large manufacturing base as long as the money reaches the workers.


Egypt has a ton of wealth - it's just how this wealth was "distributed", that has always been the problem.

[Hondo]

You are assuming there will be a "nice" government and the west will continue to do business as usual. When the radical Islamic government comes into power, the west will not be keen about throwing vast amounts of money into a hostile country. They may get support from Iran or Syria if the Egyptians can figure out how to be a thorn in Israel's side without getting their butts kicked in the process.

[Rollo]

You are assuming there will be a "nice" government and the west will continue to do business as usual. When the radical Islamic government comes into power, the west will not be keen about throwing vast amounts of money into a hostile country.

Where would this radical Islamic government come from? In the 2005 elections for the parliament, the National Democratic Party which calls itself a "neo-liberalist, social democratic" party won the lions share of the seats.
http://www.ndp.org.eg/en/index.aspx
Protests in Egypt have after it's all been said and done been remarkably peaceful, and the military hasn't itself staged a coup.

What I think we'll end up with, is a government formed out of a "rainbow coalition" made up for several parties and a shift to the centre-left, much the same as the ANC shifted in South Africa in 1994.
The new government will want to show itself as legitimate, and generally peaceful to consolidate the support that it would tenuously hold, because the government it has replaced has just been deposed.

I don't think that we'll see any hostility with Israel, but we may see tensions with Sudan to the south.

[Valve Bounce]

You are assuming there will be a "nice" government and the west will continue to do business as usual. When the radical Islamic government comes into power, the west will not be keen about throwing vast amounts of money into a hostile country. They may get support from Iran or Syria if the Egyptians can figure out how to be a thorn in Israel's side without getting their butts kicked in the process.

Saudi Arabia has already come out very clearly to say that if the USA did not stump up the 1.5 billion to prop up Egypt, they would. It's all about influence, and unfortunately, so far the money given to help Egypt has been distributed among the elite rich ruling family and their cohorts. This has to change.

[Hondo]

Ultimately any changes made will be done by those willing to fire into the crowd. I'm not talking logic, what's right, what the moral high ground is, or anything else that "makes sense" to you or I. Tunisia was a lucky deal, the right place and the right time. In true copy cat fashion, the powers that want to be, used the hip players in electronic social networking to cobble together a demonstration in Egypt. That's a bunch of very expensive i-toys for a country where the average wage is $2 a day. I'm telling you the vast number of people were out there because in addition to disatisfaction, it was the fun, heady, trendy thing to do. It was not something to lose their lives about. Now that there is a chink in the armour, Radical Islam is the only player with a proven record of the ruthlessness needed to take and hold the power. If Egypt were up to functioning as a democracy, they would already have been doing so.

[Valve Bounce]

Ultimately any changes made will be done by those willing to fire into the crowd. I'm not talking logic, what's right, what the moral high ground is, or anything else that "makes sense" to you or I. Tunisia was a lucky deal, the right place and the right time. In true copy cat fashion, the powers that want to be, used the hip players in electronic social networking to cobble together a demonstration in Egypt. That's a bunch of very expensive i-toys for a country where the average wage is $2 a day. I'm telling you the vast number of people were out there because in addition to disatisfaction, it was the fun, heady, trendy thing to do. It was not something to lose their lives about. Now that there is a chink in the armour, Radical Islam is the only player with a proven record of the ruthlessness needed to take and hold the power. If Egypt were up to functioning as a democracy, they would already have been doing so.

Yeah! like it's fun to be shot, beaten and whipped and tortured. What are you smoking? because it's good stuff and you should share it around. :rolleyes:

[Don Capps]

Then, of course, there are other Arab countries such as Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait not to mention Yemen whose citizens could suddenly seek "democracy" having been emboldened by the Egyptian people's achievements.

I am not sure why you included Kuwait in this list other than lumping all the various states together. It has about as close to what even the most lame-brained Neo-conservatives have to admit as being a popular democracy in the Gulf region. In the last election, there were women elected to the Parliament and there will probably be even more in the next election, especially given that women make up a healthy percentage of the electorate. In addition, the Sabah family rule with a light hand, especially in comparison to other states in the region. While Kuwait certainly has its problems, its treatment of TCNs -- Third Country Nationals -- to name just one that needs to be ironed out, it is head and shoulders above its neighbors in the Gulf.

Bahrain is the one that you should have included instead of Kuwait. Bahrain is an unusual emirate in that its ruling family generally keeps its profile rather low when it comes to exercising power, but that the Emir seems to have seen fit to provide each Bahraini with a payment of 1,000 BD at this moment does signal that despite the generally outward calm there are problems. While the protests in Bahrain have been generally well-behaved, there are problems that have not been addressed as well as social unrest due to the changes in the populace over the past decade or so. Keep in mind that while Bahrain is only a causeway away from Saudi Arabia, you can buy alcohol, which makes its a popular weekend spot in the Gulf.

I take it that Hondo has not spent much -- if any -- time in the Middle East. The vast majority of Muslims in the region are scarcely any more radical in the practice of their religion than Christians are in America -- although it would seem that there are American Christians whose ideas regarding religion seem to easily match those of "radical" Islam when it comes to some of their ideas about the nature of government. That Glenn Beck and others of his ilk continue to push the "radical Islam" line as part of their right-wing-nut agenda and that people take this basically uneducated, former drug addict seriously is a bit scary in and of itself. Not all fanatics live in the Middle East and are members of "Radical Islam."

Egypt is a very poor country, its economic problems dating back decades upon decades. It is also a very populous state, which is a part of its problem, of course. Cairo is huge, teeming with people, and then you go a relatively short distance and suddenly you are in the desert. I am not smart enough to know how Egypt will sort out its future, but it seems clear that some sort of society that will be, if nothing else, much more open than it has been in the past several decades. It will not happen overnight and the consequences will not be known for perhaps years to come of what just happened -- creating and succeeding with a revolution are one thing, governing in the wake of one is quite another thing altogether.

[Valve Bounce]

I am not sure why you included Kuwait in this list other than lumping all the various states together. It has about as close to what even the most lame-brained Neo-conservatives have to admit as being a popular democracy in the Gulf region. .

You may have missed that Kuwait was the first country to react as soon as the demonstrations commenced in Egypt, promising free food for everyone for 3 months and a gift of over US$3000 to every Kuwaiti. I am not saying that there will be a revolt there, as I have know since I was there in 1977 that Kuwait had very generous financial treatment of its citizens. In fact, Saudi Arabia also had very generous financial arrangements with its citizens, such as loans for trucks and heavy plant equipment for its Bedouin. The fact that I did not mention Bahrain, or any of the other smaller kingdoms does not mean that I excluded them from discussion. In fact, when I was in Saudi Arabia, there was one helluva uprising in Mecca, the news of which was totally suppressed in Saudi; our "residential" office partner who just sat in the office all day and did no engineering whatsoever, suddenly disappeared. I was told that he had swiftly fled to Bahrain. I know Bahrain is only a causeway from Saudi - I used to go down to have a look across at Bahrain many nights. It is also interesting that Osama bin whatever and his family came from Saudi. I also saw that the Oil Minister had a huge "palace" up in the hills at Taif that looked like a huge motel complex - he was also know to have one of the most elaborate liquor collections in the world.

This thread was open for discussion, and I value your thoughts on the region - you obviously speak from experience, some of which neither of us have discussed yet ;)

[Hondo]

I haven't been, nor do I have the slightest desire to go to the Middle East. I have been in Africa, but not up in the northern areas. Valve, I don't recall any manner of overly harsh treatment of the Egyptian protestors as a matter of official policy. Most of what I've viewed has been people waving their I-whatevers around and carrying protest signs, in english, of course.

Egypt is still a poor country and the notion that other countries can continue to give it money so it can pretend to be what it is not is ridiculous. They may have given Mubarak the idea it was time to go but they are going to find out their problems run much deeper than the President's chair.

[Valve Bounce]

. Valve, I don't recall any manner of overly harsh treatment of the Egyptian protestors as a matter of official policy. Most of what I've viewed has been people waving their I-whatevers around and carrying protest signs, in english, of course.

.

Try, just try to keep up with the news about Egypt. You are so far out of the loop that you appear to be on another planet.

[Roamy]

In the end Israel will become the most incredible suicide bomber the universe will ever experience. Or we will move israel to the Us. We won't be able to continually fund the middle east which we should not be doing in the first place.

[Hondo]

Try, just try to keep up with the news about Egypt. You are so far out of the loop that you appear to be on another planet.

When did the Egyptian army fire upon. beat, make prisoners of these protestors and torture them? If they had, this thing would have been over in 4 days, similar to the Iranian election protests. The loop I'm on says it's a funny deal when, spurred on by a Tunisian that overfilled his Zippo, a spontanious popular uprising occurs in Egypt from amongst the masses of I-device owners that make $2 a day or are unemployed and just happen to have some very nicely done protest signs with them.

I don't think there will be an improvement because there is not much to improve with. A coalition government won't work for any length of time and there will outcrys from the public for some corruption trials. The government will ultimately be radical Islam because they are willing and able to do the things that will give them, and allow them to maintain control.

[Don Capps]

You may have missed that Kuwait was the first country to react as soon as the demonstrations commenced in Egypt, promising free food for everyone for 3 months and a gift of over US$3000 to every Kuwaiti. I am not saying that there will be a revolt there, as I have know since I was there in 1977 that Kuwait had very generous financial treatment of its citizens.


KUWAIT CITY, Jan 17: His Highness the Amir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah has issued instructions granting every Kuwaiti citizen KD 1,000 ($3,599) as well as free food rations for 14 months as of next month, a Cabinet statement said Sunday.

The Cabinet, chaired by His Highness the Prime Minister Sheikh Nasser Mohammad Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah, said it took note of the Amiri grant which would coincide with Sheikh Sabah’s 5th anniversary.
The Cabinet assigned the ministry of finance to take necessary steps to disperse the grant, which reflected the Amir’s keenness to helping citizens overcome their living conditions, Minister of State for Cabinet Affairs Roudhan Al-Roudhan said in a statement after the government meeting.

The Amir, he noted, also instructed food rations to be offered for free between Feb 1, 2011 and March 31, 2012.

The grants, he noted, marked the occasion of the 50th independence anniversary, 20th liberation anniversary and 5th anniversary of Sheikh Sabah’s assumption of office, due next month.
The Cabinet, meanwhile, paid tribute to late Amir Sheikh Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-sabah who passed away five years ago.

Several MPs have praised HH the Amir’s decision.
Speaking to reporters, National Assembly Speaker Jassem Al-Khorafi said “I would like to take this opportunity to express my thanks and gratitude to HH the Amir and stress the happiness of every citizen on the occasion of the country’s National and Liberation days and 5th year of the Amir’s taking over.” He stressed that the grant is not a new initiative for the Amir and said he hoped Kuwait and its people will continue to enjoy more such grants.

MP Khalid Al-Adwa commended the Amiri grant decision, saying “HH the Amir has always been supportive of common citizens who are facing economic difficulties of late due to the drastic hike in prices of consumer products.” He asked the government, particularly the Minister of Commerce and Industry, to monitor prices in the market over the next period for fear that some traders would take advantage of the Amiri grant to hike prices.

MP Hussein Al-Mezyad also praised the Amiri grant, stressing that the generosity of HH the Amir is well-known and that he had managed to spread happiness among all Kuwaitis. He also commended the Amir for ordering free distribution of foodstuffs to Kuwaiti families “which indicates his generosity and his concern for his children. We hope the Ministry of Commerce and Industry and municipality will strictly monitor markets to ensure that traders don’t play with prices and the Amiri grant is not wasted.” He also called for quick payment of the grant and suggested it be paid with salaries of February.

MP Dr Rola Dashti also expressed her sincere thanks to HH the Amir and said this is a wise initiative, considering the current living conditions in the wake of the economic crises. She urged the government to find lasting solutions to problems that the society is facing in various fields including education, health, social, and economic fields, and not delay and not rely on temporal decrees which delay the problem and not resolve it permanently.

“Today, Kuwaitis are in dire need of a policy of understanding and openness in the general interest of the country,” she said and urged the executive and legislative authorities to work hand in hand to solve the nation’s problems to reform the country instead of focusing on the past and false things that only increase destruction and frustration.

MP Musallam Al-Barrak said the Amiri grant was the result of the generosity of HH the Amir and hoped the government will learn from HH the Amir, and minimize the suffering of Kuwait people.

MP Ghanim Al-Mae’a said that the grant reflects unity, love, and interaction between the Amir and his people and hoped there would be stability in the next phase and calm between the executive and legislative authorities. Indicating that there is a long list of priorities and draft laws related to Kuwaiti citizens, he said “we hope the two authorities will focus on them now.”

In a related development, a parliamentary source said Ministry of Commerce and Industry will take strict action against any trader caught taking advantage of the Amiri grant to increase the prices of commodities.

From the Arab Times, A Kuwaiti newspaper

This was already in the works before the situation in Egypt flared up and more a matter of addressing the longstanding issue of the economic issues that the near-collapse of the financial markets created in Kuwait, which had a very serious impact on private sector jobs in Kuwait, especially those employing Kuwaitis under 30. Note that this only applies to Kuwaitis and is not extended to the TCNs living there on residence visas. At least not yet, at any rate. Keep in mind only about 40-45% (the latter if you include those Bedouins born in Kuwait but who are officially "stateless persons") of those in Kuwait are actually Kuwaitis, the being TCNs doing nearly all the menial work in the oil fields and other industries in Kuwait. So, this owes as much to the 50th anniversary of National Day coming up later this month as any other factors.

The near-collapse of the global financial markets hit Kuwait hard since one of its few industries outside oil is finance and banking, which was the major source for private sector jobs. Given that each Kuwaiti is entitled to a government job, many have moved from the private sector to the government sector over the past 30-36 months. This has upset the financial planning forecasts and left many of the younger Kuwaitis working for lower salaries than they had been making. Despite efforts to reduce the number of TCNs in Kuwait, that is going rather slowly in part of the real need for the TCNs to make the country operate.

As an aside, Kuwait is a Sunny -- Sunni -- country and a large number of the TCNs are Shia -- S'hitte -- as well as a large sprinkling of Hindu and Christians. Kuwait is much more secular than Saudi, but less so than Bahrain, at least on the surface. Money is a far more important topic of interest by many in the Gulf than religion from my observation. Kuwait was founded by pirates and caravan raiders, so they have a tradition of being somewhat pragmatic about things. Similar stories can be found regarding Bahrain, the Emirates, Qatar, and Oman, for instance.

[Valve Bounce]

When did the Egyptian army fire upon. beat, make prisoners of these protestors and torture them? If they had, this thing would have been over in 4 days, similar to the Iranian election protests. The loop I'm on says it's a funny deal when, spurred on by a Tunisian that overfilled his Zippo, a spontanious popular uprising occurs in Egypt from amongst the masses of I-device owners that make $2 a day or are unemployed and just happen to have some very nicely done protest signs with them.

I don't think there will be an improvement because there is not much to improve with. A coalition government won't work for any length of time and there will outcrys from the public for some corruption trials. The government will ultimately be radical Islam because they are willing and able to do the things that will give them, and allow them to maintain control.

The army didn't. The secret police run by Mubarak killed more than 300 protesters, let out prisoners from jails, and riding horses and camels ran down protesters. As I said, you appear completely out of the loop because these events were well documented by the media.

[Don Capps]

There are those who think that "radical Islam" is the major threat to the world and, it seems, particularly the United States. That this seems to be something of an article of faith among many conservatives in the US, especially those considering themselves as either members or fellow-travelers of the so-called "Tea Party," which is currently attempting to subvert the Republican Party. Given that many of that ilk haven't the slightest clue as to what Islam actually is "about" in the first place, nor any clue as to how what is often termed "radical Islam" is more often than not actually something else using that as a means to an end, much less there being any real likelihood that "radical Islamists" could invade the US. It would seem that the US has much more to fear from "radical Christianity" that threatens the freedoms found in the US Constitution than it does from "radical Islam."

What the above has to do with the events in Egypt and its aftermath is that the right-wing in the US will inevitably see all this more as a threat than as a good thing. Few US conservatives have yet to meet an autocrat that they did not like, especially if he was good for business or served American security policies.

[Roamy]

Don - I think you are out of touch with reality. Maybe you need to go review the terrorist attacks in the past 10yrs. It is not that radical islam will invade as in traditional military. They fight from within via of the great trojan horse that we all allow them to use all over the world. If Israel did not have nuclear weapons they would be toast overnight. From a world perspective the idea of Pakistan and Iran having nukes is not so frighting for us but I think the regions have to be concerned. There seems to be no shortage of suicide bombers. Maybe that has something to do with what you teach your children.

[Valve Bounce]

Don - I think you are out of touch with reality. Maybe you need to go review the terrorist attacks in the past 10yrs. It is not that radical islam will invade as in traditional military. They fight from within via of the great trojan horse that we all allow them to use all over the world. If Israel did not have nuclear weapons they would be toast overnight. From a world perspective the idea of Pakistan and Iran having nukes is not so frighting for us but I think the regions have to be concerned. There seems to be no shortage of suicide bombers. Maybe that has something to do with what you teach your children.

I totally agree with this. For those who do not remember the Bali bombings in the last few years, a brush up on history would be beneficial. The Indonesians have caught and killed top henchmen of Osama bin whatever since but could not nail Abu Bashir until last year when they discovered a huge training camp in Aceh loaded with a huge arsenal of firearms and ammunition. I think the Indonesians were finally able to charge Bashir yesterday.

The amount of hatred preached by the so called radical Islamists also happens here, when one of these preachers have the intention of eventually installing Sharia Law here. This guy here preaches that women are like meat, and should be treated as such. I could go on, but I think you get the picture.

[Mark]

The amount of hatred preached by the so called radical Islamists also happens here, when one of these preachers have the intention of eventually installing Sharia Law here. This guy here preaches that women are like meat, and should be treated as such. I could go on, but I think you get the picture.

Sounds a bit like Abu Hamsah (sp?) who we had in the UK, but deported!

For all the talk of Sharia law it will never happen in non-muslim countries, if only because the vast majority of the population just aren't interested!

[Rollo]

Getting down to brass tacks, the real problem for Egypt is a general unemployment rate of 10% and a youth unemployment rate of almost 30%. I think that one of the reasons we saw a lot of people specifically in places like Tahrir Square was because of a lot of people who would have otherwise have been idle.

The problem for whoever happens to form legitimate government (or even illegitimate government) is how to engage the otherwise idle people. If the government is seen to be doing nothing, then there's little point in freedom is there? What is the point in political freedom if you can't even put bread on the table? We saw that issue being played out in Russia post 1991 when the state scaled back vast operations and suddenly people couldn't afford to stand in queues for things that weren't there anymore.

[Valve Bounce]

Getting down to brass tacks, the real problem for Egypt is a general unemployment rate of 10% and a youth unemployment rate of almost 30%. I think that one of the reasons we saw a lot of people specifically in places like Tahrir Square was because of a lot of people who would have otherwise have been idle.

The problem for whoever happens to form legitimate government (or even illegitimate government) is how to engage the otherwise idle people. If the government is seen to be doing nothing, then there's little point in freedom is there? What is the point in political freedom if you can't even put bread on the table? We saw that issue being played out in Russia post 1991 when the state scaled back vast operations and suddenly people couldn't afford to stand in queues for things that weren't there anymore.

So true!! The US pours US$1.5 billion in aid to Egypt, most of which goes into the pockets of Mubarak and his family, and his top ministers and army officers. Rumors persist that he has spirited away US$70 billion. Foreign nationals wanting to do business need to go through Mubarak's clique. Now the hunt begins for all this money any of which is frozen will be returned to Egypt's economy. Labor is so cheap in Egypt and many of the people are quite skillful that this country has potential for a huge manufacturing base which will solve unemployment.

We can only expect that with Mubarak and his clique gone (or arrested) things will improve, I hope so.

[Bob Riebe]

We can only expect that with Mubarak and his clique gone (or arrested) things will improve,
Wishful thinking, at best.

[Valve Bounce]

Wishful thinking, at best.

Well, let me go on record that I disagree with you.

[Roamy]

I see some protesting going on in Iran. Unfortunately they kill protesters so I don't know what to expect unless the chicken-sh!t world steps in to protect the protesters

[Bob Riebe]

I see some protesting going on in Iran. Unfortunately they kill protesters so I don't know what to expect unless the chicken-sh!t world steps in to protect the protesters Step in how?
The Iranian military is far more capable then the average inept Muslim state military.

[Roamy]

Step in how?
The Iranian military is far more capable then the average inept Muslim state military.

So the egyptians prefer sharia law by a pole of 85% - where do you think they are headed and what happens if we quit funding the 1.5 billion?

[Bob Riebe]

So the Egyptians prefer sharia law by a pole of 85% - where do you think they are headed and what happens if we quit funding the 1.5 billion?

Does not matter, Obama has zero influence with what happened in Eygpt, and he sure as hell will not have any influence with how things turn out. Right now Washington is too busy trying how they could anoint Obama the miracle worker in Egypt, while telling Iranians "you are on your own."

A CNN reporter interviewed three Egyptians asking them how they felt about all the help Obama gave then all said Obama had absolutely nothing to do with this, of course even after the Egyptian totally dissed Obama, the reporter still said the Egyptian were praising Obama.

Of course the protesters mocking the Obama the anointed one does not help their case.

[Eki]

Berlusconi pays a 17-year old dancer for sex because he thinks she's a granddaughter of Mubarak:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12083491


He said he was doing a favour for the then-Egyptian leader, Hosni Mubarak, because Mr Berlusconi was told the girl was Mr Mubarak's granddaughter.

Yes, being a granddaughter of Hosni Mubarak is a big turn-on.

[Bob Riebe]

Berlusconi pays a 17-year old dancer for sex because he thinks she's a granddaughter of Mubarak:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12083491
Yes, being a granddaughter of Hosni Mubarak is a big turn-on.
How did Slick Willy Clinton miss out on that one- or did he?

[Mark in Oshawa]

I think Egypt may surprise us. The way the Military let events run their course, not stepping in until the very end against the government of the day means they hold all the cards. If they hold good to their promise to set up elections and create a governmental system that will bring about a democracy; then we must allow that process to happen no matter where it goes. It is their nation, and they have the right to determine who leads them, even if we don't like whom they pick. Let them have the consequences of that.

I just find it hilarious that people think the Arab world has no way of succeeding without these dictators. If the leadership of most of these nations were more englightened, they would find an educated and willing workforce to make things happen. Egypt's place in the world geographically and the amount of educated young workers would make it an ideal place to set up factories and manufacturing facilities. As they made money, they too would participate in the market economy expanding the market further. The nation would actually have something to trade with. What is more, people making money are more stable and committed to rational political movements.

The reality is Egypt is a large concentrated nation with lots of potential. If the leadership of that country is smart, it could be the example that proves the Arab world is good for more than oil and radical religious morons. I believe the people and the man on the street ( or woman ) would be a lot better off if they were lead by people who not so bent on making a killing off the back of their nations. Assad, Mubarek, some of the Emir's and the like and the Saudi Royal Family are all parasites. Scum.....living off the avails of oil, aid and their own ability to take from the populace. This revolution a week thing in the Middle East is the wind of change brothers..and I think a lot of it comes from the example of what Iraq could be and the effect of multimedia and the internet. Knowing you are being screwed but there is a way out is giving people hope, which is what propelled them into the streets of Cairo.....

[Mark in Oshawa]

As for Israel? Well, if anyone wants to take them on, they still have their nukes, and they wont wait for Washington to tell them how to defend themselves. That died a quick death with the election and naive policy that Obama has brought about. No one is going to really take on Israel in a straight up fight. The Arab world has always lost on those exchanges....and would in the future too....

[Rollo]

As for Israel? Well, if anyone wants to take them on, they still have their nukes, and they wont wait for Washington to tell them how to defend themselves. ... No one is going to really take on Israel in a straight up fight. The Arab world has always lost on those exchanges....and would in the future too....

Pakistan has Ghauri nukes... and a history of sending a token Air Force to fight against Israel in the Yom Kippur War... and currently a government made entirely from Jenga, so who knows?

[Mark in Oshawa]

Pakistan has Ghauri nukes... and a history of sending a token Air Force to fight against Israel in the Yom Kippur War... and currently a government made entirely from Jenga, so who knows?

Pakistan is the only real wild card in the Muslim world for attacking Israel. The one thing that will stop them I suspect though is their distance, and the knowledge to start THAT sort of war would bring India maybe down upon them.....

[Roamy]

Pakistan has Ghauri nukes... and a history of sending a token Air Force to fight against Israel in the Yom Kippur War... and currently a government made entirely from Jenga, so who knows?

Well here is one for our resident engineer and tactician Rollo. What is the effect of 5000 kilotons of nuclear bombs set off in the middle east all as once.

[Rollo]

OK then,

Name - kt of TNT - Immediate Blast Area

Fat Man - 18kt - 0.1km
Peacekeeper (W88) - 350kt - 0.32km
Minuteman I (W59) - 1000kt - 0.48km
Castle Bravo - 15000kt - 1.42km
Tsar Bomba - 50000kt - 2.3km

The Theoretical Roamy bomb:
Roamy Bomb - 5000kt - 0.77km

At 5000kt it sits well inside known trend lines for existing tests of bombs that have been dropped both in times of peace and war. 5000kt might produce a blast zone of 0.77km and a destruction zone of about 12km possibly?

[Roamy]

So then what about the fallout cloud and dangers from that.

I think we and the ruskies have about 2000 warheads but I have no idea of the kilotons
So one 5000 kiloton bomb would pretty much do in Tel Aviv looking at the above. But what would the fallout consequences be??
And if you know what is the largest kiloton bomb in existence today?

[Rollo]

As far as I'm aware it's probably still the B83 at 1200kt; the only reason I know that is because of Broken Arrow with John Travolta in it. The B83 nuclear bomb in the film does exist, but there is no B-3 Stealth Bomber.

[Rudy Tamasz]

I just find it hilarious that people think the Arab world has no way of succeeding without these dictators.

The Arab world has no way of succeeding, dictators or not. The last time they had a decent economy was in 9th century AD or so. They haven't done a thing since then, just kept pumping oil and getting aid either from Westerners or Communists, or both.

[Mark]

It reminds me of how Europe was back in the 1300's or so. That religion was everything and much more important than making a life for yourself. Then we (Britain especially but most of Western Europe) realised that religion wasn't everything and in fact, money was the route to happiness, or at least wealth, so we went down that path in a big way.

Egypt is at a crossroads, will they deliver a government who will bring them economic prosperity, or one which conforms to their religious beliefs, history has shown these are usually mutually exclusive.

[Captain VXR]

Libya or Yemen, who's next?
Yes I am being overly optimistic before some one goes hurrrr durrrr you can't be certain any more governments will be overthrown etc