Weather Forecast for Meijer 300 (Kentucky)

[slorydn1]

Friday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70.

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 89. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 72.

[slorydn1]

Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. South wind between 3 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. South wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72.

[slorydn1]

Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. South wind between 3 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. South wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. Southwest wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. West southwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

[slorydn1]

000
FXUS61 KILN 101943
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
343 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL PASS SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACRS THE CWFA THIS AFTN.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS MID AND
HIGH LVL CLOUDS SPILL ESE FROM A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH LOW AND MID CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE
WARM FRONT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S FAR EAST TO THE MID 60S
FAR SW.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NE ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL SIGNAL THE RETURN OF A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS.
LOW LVL AND UPR LVL FORCING APPEARS TO BE WEAK WITH THIS FRONT...SO
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO DAY TIME HEATING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE FORECAST BECOMES DIFFICULT FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEPICT A MORE COMPACT VORT MAX TO
AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE NAM-WRF CONTINUES TO SHEAR THIS VORT OUT BUT STRETCHES
IT NORTH/SOUTH ACRS THE REGION. THE GEM PUSHES THE VORT MAX MORE
SOUTHEAST OF OUR SRN CWFA. GFS...AS IS TYPICAL...IS SUFFERING FROM
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK TO SOME EXTENT...SO ITS HARD TO BUY THIS
SOLUTION TOTALLY. BEST SOLUTION AT THIS POINT IS TO KEEP POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN STILL FAVORING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OF SATURDAY. IT MUST BE NOTED THAT PWATS RISE INTO
THE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL
BE SLOW-MOVING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. THERE
ALSO MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND DAY TIME INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS..WHICH WILL LIKELY BE OF THE PULSE VARIETY.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A LOT OF FLOODING HAS BEEN GOING ON IN NE
TX TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX..SO THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. WILL
MENTION ISOLATED SEVERE/FLOODING ISSUES IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARM...RANGING FROM
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE CLOUD AND PCPN
DEPENDENT BUT SHOULD GENERALLY WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE BOARD.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO
DECREASING INSTABILITY AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE LOW AND UPR LVL
FORCING.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS DECENT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE
RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE THE FORECAST FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A BIT UNCERTAIN.

A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY / TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LIFT WILL BE AIDED BY DIURNAL
CYCLES...AND THE OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTERLY AROUND
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THERE DEFINITELY
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY CONCENTRATED FORCING TO ALLOW ANY MORE THAN A
CHANCE POP AT THIS POINT. INSTABILITY SUNDAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A STRONG PULSE STORM OR TWO...BUT WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WOULD
SUPPORT MORE OF A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL VERSUS
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AND HAVE BEEN FLIP
FLOPPING BETWEEN CLEARING THE FRONT OUT OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY...OR KEEPING IT AROUND WELL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HARD TO DO MUCH ELSE THAN GO WITH SMALL CHANGES AT THIS POINT...NOT
WANTING TO BREAK FORECAST CONTINUITY UNTIL A BETTER TREND EMERGES.
WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AT THIS
POINT...AND LEAVE THINGS DRY BEYOND.

TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND NOT FAR FROM
GUIDANCE. EXACT POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY MAY FOCUS A SLIGHTLY
TIGHTER TEMP GRADIENT THAN CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS BUT WOULD BE TOUGH
TO PIN THE LOCATION DOWN AT THIS POINT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

[slorydn1]

This Afternoon: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89. South southwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. South wind between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms before 1pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 1pm and 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. High near 85. West southwest wind between 9 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Southwest wind between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

[slorydn1]

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Wilmington Oh
1235 Pm Edt Fri Jun 11 2010

Inz066-073>075-080-kyz089>096-ohz070>072-077-078-111800-
Boone-butler-campbell-carroll-clermont-clinton-dearborn-franklin In-
Gallatin-grant-hamilton-kenton-ohio-owen-pendleton-ripley-
Switzerland-warren-
1235 Pm Edt Fri Jun 11 2010

.now...
Isolated Showers And Possibly A Thunderstorm Will Begin To Develop
Across The Tri State Area Through 2 Pm. Rainfall Amounts Will Be
Less Than A Tenth Of An Inch.

[slorydn1]

000
Fxus61 Kiln 111750
Afdiln

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Oh
150 Pm Edt Fri Jun 11 2010

.synopsis...
A Warm Front Will Lift North Across The Region Today. This Will
Lead To Warm And Humid Conditions Through The Weekend Along With
A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.

&&

.near Term /until 6 Pm This Evening/...
Area Of Tsra/shra Acrs The N Has Held Together As It Moved E. Went
Ahead And Upped Pops Acrs Central Ohio For Late This Morning And Early
Aftn. Back Across W Central Oh...the Showers Should Be Winding
Down From W To E.

Farther Sw...still Expect Some Sct Shra/tsra To Develop Later That
Aftn In The Heat Of The Day.

Upped High Temps A Couple Of Degrees In The S As Hourly Temps
Continue To Run Ahead Of Anticipated Values.

&&

.short Term /6 Pm This Evening Through Sunday/...
Any Shower/thunderstorms Activity Should Begin To Taper Off Through
This Evening But Will Hang On To A Slight Chance Through Much Of
The Night As Some Marginal Instability Lingers. All Of The Models
Are Continuing To Show A Compact Mid Level Short Wave Approaching
From The West Late Tonight And Pushing Across Mainly Our Southern
Areas Through Saturday Afternoon. There Is A Weak 850 Low
Associated With This And Even A Bit Of A Surface Reflection. As A
Result...will Nudge Pops Up Into Likely Across Much Of The Area
And Even Categorical Across The South For Saturday. Pws Are Pretty
Impressive Too With This Feature...approaching 2.5 Inches Across The
Southwest By Saturday Morning. This Could Result In Some Locally
Heavy Rainfall And Possible Flood Issues And Later Shifts Will
Have To Monitor For Possibility Of An Ffa. Pcpn Should Taper Off From
The West Saturday Afternoon Into Saturday Night. Will Then Hang On
To Some Low Chance Pops On Into Sunday As We Remain Unstable But
Have Little Forcing. Temps Will Be A Little Tricky On Saturday
Depending On How Fast Pcpn Moves Out. For Now...will Generally Go
With Highs In The Mid 80s.

&&