Weather Forecast for Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 Weekend (Michigan)

[slorydn1]

Friday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81.

Friday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64.

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65.

Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84.


Typical spring race in Michigan

[slorydn1]

Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 83. South southeast wind between 8 and 13 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Friday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. South southwest wind around 10 mph.

Saturday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87.

Saturday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83.

[slorydn1]

Friday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. South southeast wind between 8 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. South southwest wind between 9 and 11 mph.

Saturday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Southwest wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. West southwest wind between 9 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.

Sunday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82.

Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 79.

As you can see, I have added Monday's forecast just in case...and as usual it's beautiful

[slorydn1]

000
Fxus63 Kdtx 101917
Afddtx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi
317 Pm Edt Thu Jun 10 2010


.long Term...friday Through Wednesday

Steady Amplification Of The Upper Level Flow Over The Next 24 Hours
Will Allow Southeast Conus Upper Ridging To Nose Northward And Into
The Great Lakes Through The Weekend. The Rising Upper Heights Will
Occur In Conjunction With A Strengthening Pattern Of Warm Air
Advection And Moisture Transport On Friday. One Or More Convective
Complexes Will Likely Be Ongoing Friday Morning Across Portions Of
The Upper/mid Ms Valley...which Will Work Toward Maintaining A
Steady Stream Of Higher Level Cloud Debris Into The Great Lakes.
Mean 850-300 Mb Thicknesses Would Suggest The Potential For One
Of These Systems To Make A Run At The Area During The Morning /per
The Convective Feedback Driven Gfs Solution/...but Believe This
Activity Will Remain Along An Axis Of Deeper Ascent/instability
Tied To The Nocturnal Low Level Jet And Warm Front To Our North And
West. Weak Instability /sbcape Up To 1 Kj/kg/ Will Eventually
Evolve Over South-central Lower Mi Into The Afternoon As The Ribbon
Of Higher Theta-e Air Advects In And Highs Climb Into The Lower
80s. Any Diurnal Convection That Can Fire Along The Moisture
Gradient Would Tend To Favor Areas Along/west Of The Highway 23
Corridor. Points Toward The East Will Hold On To A Slightly More
Stable Low Level Southeast/marine Flow Influence...with Highs
Within This Region More In The 75-80f Range.

Deep/moist Warm Sector Air Mass Will Become Firmly Entrenched
Across Southeast Mi Friday Night And Saturday. Pw Values Will Climb
Toward 2 Inches While K Indices Settle Into The Mid-upper 30s. This
Will Continue To Promote An Active Convective Pattern Upstream...
Although The Specific Details Remain Difficult To Define Locally
With Strong Dependence On Proper Placement/timing Of These Complexes
And/or Any Remnant Mcv/cold Pools As Well As The Passage Of A
Surface Trough. The Most Organized Activity On Friday Night Appears
To Remain Tied To The Main Baroclinic Zone And An Attendant Surface
Wave Positioned From The Upper Ms Valley Into The Upper Great
Lakes. Persistent Moist Ascent And Established Weak-moderate
Instability Will Eventually Allow This Activity To Work Into Or
Redevelop Over Lower Michigan On Saturday.

12z Nam Supplies Additional Support Via The Passage Of A More
Progressive Surface Trough During Peak Heating Saturday...then
Effectively Shunts The Deeper Moisture Axis South For The Latter
Half Of The Weekend. Favoring A Slower Solution Offered By A
Ecmwf/gfs/canadian Consensus Leaves A Favorable Thermodynamic
Profile For Additional Convective Development On Sunday. The
High Moisture Content Will Bring Localized Heavy Rainfall/
Flooding Concerns For The Weekend. Lower Confidence On Severe
Weather Potential At This Stage...although Bulk Wind Fields Look
Sufficient In Sustaining Organized Structures Should Mcs/mcv And
Frontal Timing Be Able To Capitalize On Adequate Destabilization.

Models Beginning To Disagree In How They Handle The Longwave Pattern
Transitioning To More Zonal For The Middle Of Next Week. Energy
Ejecting Out Of The Closed Upper Low Over The Southwest Conus Will
Allow The Longwave Trough To Weaken While Ridging Over The Eastern
Conus Builds To The West. Previous Runs Kept The Mid Week Dry
Under The Influence Of The Ridge...but Current Runs Suggest A
Shortwave Could Weaken The Ridge And Work Through The State Tuesday
Night Into Wednesday. Left The Forecast Dry At This Point. Will Wait
To See If The Next Model Runs Hold Onto This Feature Or Keep The
Ridge Stronger And Take The Wave To Our North Before Biting On It.
Should See A General Warming Trend Through The Week Decent Warm Air
Advection Ahead Of The Next Cold Front To Affect The Region On
Friday.

&&

[slorydn1]

This Afternoon: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. South southeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.

Tonight: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. South wind between 8 and 10 mph.

Saturday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Southwest wind between 11 and 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. West wind between 9 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Sunday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. North northwest wind around 10 mph.

Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 77.

[slorydn1]

000
Fxus63 Kdtx 111724
Afddtx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi
124 Pm Edt Fri Jun 11 2010


.aviation...

In The Short Term... Faced With Increasing Precipitation Chances
This Afternoon As Weakening Band Of Showers And Scattered To
Isolated Thunderstorms Move Northeastward On Nose Of Low And Mid
Level Warm Advection. Most Of This Is Outrunning Its Support... And
The Threat For Thunder Is Pretty Minimal As It Approaches The Taf
Sites. By 21-22z Time Frame Most Of The Rainfall Will Have Moved
Through Or Dissipated. That Will Leave A Fair Amount Of Mid And High
Level Cloudiness For The Rest Of The Period. As The Warm Front
Moves Northward Through The Area There Will Be A Slight Chance Of
Thunderstorms This Evening, But More Likely Saturday Morning As Next
Weakening Upper Ms Valley Convective Remnants Approach.

&&

.prev Discussion...issued 403 Am Edt Fri Jun 11 2010

Short Term...today And Tonight

Not A Great Way To Start The Forecast Early This Morning...as
Widespread Light Showers And Sprinkles Traverse Through Southeast
Michigan. A Shortwave Trough Is Moving Through...ushering In The
First Surge Of Moisture. Note The 00z Nam...which Did Not Indicate
Any Measurable Precipitation Over The Cwa.

Second Round Of 850-700 Mb Theta-e/moisture Advection To Take Place
Late This Morning/early This Afternoon And Will Facilitate
Increasing Chance Pops...with Sfc-850 Mb Li`s Becoming Negative
During The Afternoon Hours. A Few Thunderstorms Have Been Noted Over
Northern Illinois-indiana/southern Wisconsin In This Moisture Rich
Environment Over The Central Conus. With Organized Convection (large
Mcs) Advancing Toward The Midwest This Morning...favor The Warm
Frontal Boundary Struggling To Make Much Inroads In The State...and
Would Expect The Mcv Moving Through South Dakota To Make It Into
Northern Lower Michigan By Early This Evening (similar To 00z
Ukmet). With Corfidi Vectors Suggesting A Jog To The Southeast And
Surface Frontal Boundary Tied Up Near The Southern Michigan
Border...do Think Showers And Thunderstorms Are Likely By This
Evening North Of M-59...just Was A Bit Uncertain Which Side Of 00z
And Leaned Slightly Toward The Latter Time. The Nam/gfs Are Also
Both Indicating K Indices Climbing To 35 To 40 C Across Much Of
Lower Michigan Early This Evening...which Supports A Good Coverage
Of Activity As Well. Looking At Least A 40 Knot Mid Level Jet Streak
Moving Through Central/northern Lower Michigan...with Pw Values
Reaching 2 Inches. Don`t Have A Lot Of Comfort In The Modest Surface
Based Inversion Progged Overnight...and Not Ruling Out An Isolated
Severe/organized Cell Or Two...especially If Activity Arrives Early
When Surface Based Instability Is Still Elevated.

Long Term...saturday Through Thursday

Highly Amplified Pattern Expected To Persist Over The Weekend As
Upper Level Low Over The Southwestern Conus Cuts Off With Strong Mid
Level Ridging Over The Southeast. This Will Allow A Very Warm And
Unstable Air Mass To Settle Across The Region Friday Night Through
Sunday With The Potential For One Or More Mcs Features To Impact The
Region. Specifics Remain Unclear At This Point With Any Activity
Largely Dependent On The Exact Timing And Location Of Any Residual
Mcv`s. Of Course...models Continue To Struggle With All Of The
Convective Feedback Which Further Complicates The Forecast.

Instability Will Increase Across The Cwa On Saturday With Daytime
Heating Allowing Sb Cape Values To Climb To Around 2000 J/kg Per The
00z Gfs. With Adequate Moisture And Instability In
Place...convection Will Likely Redevelop And Spread Across Southeast
Michigan On Saturday. Models Show Decent Agreement On This Scenario
And Have Increased Pops As A Result. Absent Any Residual Cold Pool
Circulations...convection Will Have A Hard Time Organizing With Weak
Wind Shear Over The Area. High Temperatures Will Also Largley Depend
On The Exact Timing And Coverage Of Precipitation But With 850 Mb
Temps Around 18c...high Temps In The Mid To Upper 80s Seem
Reasonable.

00z Nam Continues To Favor Much Quicker Progression Of
Surface Trough Saturday Evening But Will Continue To Favor The
Slower Gfs/ecmwf Solutions Which Indicate Surface Trough Will Not
Pass Until Sunday Afternoon...allowing For A Better Chance Of
Convection. 00z Gfs Indicates A Secondary Surge Of Theta E Will
Advect Into The Region On Sunday And As A Result...generates Around
3000 J/kg Of Sb Cape Sunday Afternoon. Wind Fields Improve On Sunday
As Well With A More Unidirectional Profile And Decent 0-3 Km Shear.
Depending On The Exact Timing Of Frontal Passage And Any Mcs
Activity...sunday Currently Appears The Better Day For Severe
Weather Potential With Straight Line Winds Being The Main Threat. Of
Course...with Abundant Atmospheric Moisture /pw Values Around 2
Inches/ And The Potential For Several Rounds Of Convection...heavy
Rainfall And Flooding Remain A Concern.

Main Forcast Concern Heading Into Next Week Will Be The Potential
For Rain Tuesday And Tuesday Night As A Weak Shortwave Rides Over
The Strong Southeastern Ridge. Latest Model Runs Continue To Show
The Potential For Rainfall During This Period But Disagree As To The
Exact Timing. Will Lean Towards The Slower Ecmwf Solution For
Now...given The Lack Of Continuity In The Gfs Solution. Introduced
Low Chance Pops Tuesday Night As A Result. Temperatures Are Expected
To Return To More Normal Values Next Week With Highs Around 80 And
Lows Around 60.

[slorydn1]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi
445 Am Edt Fri Jun 11 2010

Miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-120845-
Midland-bay-huron-saginaw-tuscola-sanilac-shiawassee-genesee-lapeer-
St. Clair-livingston-oakland-macomb-washtenaw-wayne-lenawee-monroe-
445 Am Edt Fri Jun 11 2010

This Hazardous Weather Outlook Is For Southeast Michigan.

.day One...today And Tonight

A Warm And Humid Airmass Will Lift Into Southeastern Michigan
Today...bringing An Increasing Chance Of Thunderstorms This
Afternoon...with Scattered To Numerous Thunderstorms This Evening
And Tonight. Although The Majority Of The Storms Are Not Expected To
Be Severe...an Isolated Severe Storm Or Two Can Not Be Ruled
Out...producing Damaging Wind Gusts To 60 Mph And One Inch Hail. Any
Thunderstorm Will Have The Potential To Produce Torrential Rainfall.
Storm Motion Will Be East At 25 Mph.

.days Two Through Seven...saturday Through Thursday

Scattered Thunderstorms Will Continue Through The Weekend.
Torrential Rainfall And Strong Winds Are A Good Bet With The
Thunderstorms...with Isolated Severe Storms Possible.

The Next Chance Of Thunderstorms Will Arrive Tuesday.

.spotter Information Statement...

Spotter Activation Is Not Anticipated Today And Tonight.

$$