Weather Forecast for Gillette Fusion ProGlide 500 (Pocono) Weekend

[slorydn1]

Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. North northwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Chance of precipitation is 30%

[slorydn1]

Friday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. West northwest wind between 3 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Light southwest wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. West southwest wind between 7 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[slorydn1]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 031739
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
139 PM EDT THU JUN 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG A FRONTAL SYSTEM
INTO OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN JUST
TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH BRIEFLY IN FROM
THE NORTH. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DRAG YET ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF LOWS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND HEAD OUT TO SEA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
PER COLLABORATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 251 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 0100 UTC. THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING REMAINS ACROSS
THE NORTH...AND THE BEST INSTABILITY LIES NEAR THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.
RIGHT NOW...THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF LEE SIDE
TROUGH HAS THE BEST INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. THE CONVECTIVE MODE
APPEARS TO BE MULTICELLUAR...WITH LINE SEGMENTS OR BOWS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL.

ALSO WATCHING THE REMNANTS OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS WEST VIRGINA AND
WESTERNMOST VIRGINA. IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER...IT COULD
AFFECT THE DELMARVA AROUND SUNSET.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST LATER TONIGHT, BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS, THERE COULD, ONCE AGAIN, BE SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMING. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTHERN AND URBAN AREAS. AS THE FRONT WEAKENS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
REGION, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES, FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH READINGS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S. THERE COULD BE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GO WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH AND A CHANCE NORTH. THE BIGGER THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON
THE MILD SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE 80S, ALTHOUGH THAT
MAGICAL 90 DEGREE MARK COULD POP UP ONCE AGAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT EXITS OUR REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ZONAL FLOW FROM THE NEAR/SHORT TERMS IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION
INTO MORE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND TROUGH PATTERN. HOWEVER,
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS PATTERN CHANGE. THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS BEEN DETERMINED TO BE
TO FAST WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY, WHILE THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE TO SLOW.
HPC WENT MORE WITH A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH, THEREFORE HEAVILY
WEIGHTED TOWARD THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS IS BECAUSE OF THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN THIS TIME FRAME. HPC THEN USED
THE NAEFS FOR THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES. WE INITIALIZED THE DATABASE
WITH HPC GUIDANCE THEN MADE SOME TWEAKS BASED ON ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION AND CONFIDENCE LEVELS.

BASED ON THE ABOVE, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO JUST EAST OF MAINE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME TROUGHING TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW OCCURRING. WHILE
THERE COULD BE A FEW SURFACE TROUGHS PINWHEELING AROUND THE MAIN
CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR LABRADOR, THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF WELL DEFINED ENERGY. THIS IS PARTICULARLY
THE CASE AS WE GO FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE NORTHEAST WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
IS POSITIONED TO OUR WEST. SINCE OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING ANY
DEFINED ENERGY ROLLING THROUGH THIS FLOW, WE OPTED TO GO WITH POPS
LESS THAN SLIGHT CHC MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRIOR TO THIS, WE
WENT WITH SOME SLIGHT CHC AND LOW CHC POPS WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH EARLY ON AND PERHAPS A SURFACE TROUGH NEARING THE
AREA ON SUNDAY WITH MORE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW. THE POPS WERE TIED
MORE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS, THEREFORE LOWERED POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
TO EARLY MORNING HOURS. WE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC TEMPERATURES FOR
MOST LOCALES.

[slorydn1]

This Afternoon: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. West wind between 14 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 61. West wind at 7 mph becoming south. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Sunday: Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 8am. Cloudy, with a high near 76. Southwest wind 10 to 14 mph becoming northwest. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. North northwest wind between 8 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. Northwest wind around 7 mph.

[slorydn1]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 051528
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1128 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WILL ALLOW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ALONG IT. ONE LOW
WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER LOW ON
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE LOW ON SUNDAY AND USHER IN
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE IN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT SAT JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED FURTHER TO THE NORTH AS A PSEUDO-WARM
FRONT. MULTIPLE WAVES OF ENERGY ARE CURRENTLY RIDING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PARTS OF
UPPER NEW YORK STATE AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PREFRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE
REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTERLY TODAY. WITH A
STRONGER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH MOVEMENT FROM THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEABREEZE
FRONT, SO THEREFORE WE WILL NOT HAVE THE STABLE MARINE LAYER TO
WORK WITH TODAY.

IN REGARDS TO STABILIZATION, OUR CWA IS ANYTHING BUT. LOOKING AT
THE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH KIAD AND KOKX THERE IS A VERY SHALLOW
CAP UP TO ABOUT 950MB WHICH WE WILL EASILY ERODE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY BE REACHED FURTHER NORTH IN OUR CWA WHILE
WE MAY STRUGGLE A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO REACH THE
TEMPERATURES. WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID, AND LOOKING BACK OVER THE
PAST TWO DAYS OF OUR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, TODAY SEEMS LESS
EXCITING. GRANTED WE ARE STILL UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC AND
OUR SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 4000J/KG (GOING
FURTHER NORTHEAST) AND WE HAVE A BETTER AND MORE ROBUST WIND
PROFILE THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS...THE MAIN QUESTION IS, WHAT IS OUR
FOCUS? THE SURFACE TROUGH IS THROUGH THE REGION ALREADY AND THE
WARM/COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT WHAT IS THERE
AROUND THE REGION THAT WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK NEEDED TO INITIATE
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. NOT SAYING THAT WE DO NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO
SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY BUT THERE IS NO LIFTING MECHANISM
THAT WILL ALLOW US TO HIT OUR LFC HEIGHTS, WHICH ARE STILL ABOVE
5KFT, TO HAVE WIDER SPREAD CONVECTION.

WE CAN HAVE ALL THE INSTABILITY IN THE WORLD SITTING ON TOP OF US
AND GET ABSOLUTELY NOTHING BUT A FEW POP-CORN TYPE STORMS. UNTIL
WE HAVE A STRONGER SURFACE LIFT OUR CAPES AND LIS WILL NOT BE
FULLY REALIZED. UNDER THIS ASSUMPTION, HAVE DECREASED POPS TO A
HIGHER CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AND
HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION ALONG THE
SHORE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...IF IT HAPPENS AT ALL. STAY TUNED.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SREF WAS ALSO USED IN THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FCST.
CONVECTION WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND THEN FIRE AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
THE SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK INCLUDES MOST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL ACT TO TRIGGER THE
ACTIVITY. IT WILL CONTINUE HUMID SUNDAY, BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS, IT
WILL NOT BE AS WARM. CAPE VALUES SUNDAY AT MOST AREAS TOP OUT
AROUND 1500 J/KG AND THERE IS DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO
MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON
SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY 70S ACROSS THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

[slorydn1]

This Afternoon: Showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be severe, with large hail, damaging winds, and frequent lightning. High near 75. Breezy, with a west southwest wind between 16 and 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: A chance of showers before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. North northwest wind between 14 and 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. North northwest wind around 10 mph.

Monday's weather looks great if necessary

[slorydn1]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly Nj
1031 Am Edt Sun Jun 6 2010

Dez001-002-mdz008-012-njz001-007>010-012>027-paz054-055-060>062-
067>071-061630-
New Castle-kent-cecil-kent Md-sussex-warren-morris-hunterdon-
Somerset-middlesex-western Monmouth-eastern Monmouth-mercer-salem-
Gloucester-camden-northwestern Burlington-ocean-cumberland-
Atlantic-cape May-atlantic Coastal Cape May-coastal Atlantic-
Coastal Ocean-southeastern Burlington-carbon-monroe-berks-lehigh-
Northampton-chester-montgomery-bucks-delaware-philadelphia-
Including The Cities Of...wilmington...dover...elkton...
Chestertown...newton...washington...morristown...f lemington...
Somerville...new Brunswick...freehold...sandy Hook...trenton...
Pennsville...glassboro...camden...cherry Hill...moorestown...
Mount Holly...jackson...millville...hammonton...
Cape May Court House...ocean City...atlantic City...
Long Beach Island...wharton State Forest...jim Thorpe...
Stroudsburg...reading...allentown...bethlehem...ea ston...
West Chester...norristown...doylestown...media...philad elphia
1031 Am Edt Sun Jun 6 2010

...moderate Risk Of Severe Thunderstorms Into Tonight...

A Strong Area Of Low Pressure Tracking To Our North This Afternoon
Will Pull A Strong Cold Front Across Our Area Through This Evening.
A Very Warm And Moist Airmass Ahead Of This Cold Front Coupled With
A Strengthening Wind Field Above The Surface, Will Lead To The
Development Of Showers And Thunderstorms Through Early Tonight. This
Activity May Move Through As An Intense Line, However Additional
Storms May Form Ahead Of The Main Line. As A Result, There Is
A Heightened Potential For Damaging Straight Line Winds With The
Thunderstorms. the Wind Profiles In The Lower Portion Of The
Atmosphere May Become Conducive Enough To Allow For Some
Thunderstorms To Rotate, Therefore A Tornado Cannot Be Ruled Out. In
Addition To The Damaging Wind Potential, Thunderstorms Will Be
Capable Of Producing Frequent Cloud To Ground Lightning, Hail And
Heavy Rain.

The Thunderstorms Into Tonight Should Be Fairly Quick Movers,
Therefore It Is Important To Pay Attention To The Weather Around
You. Pay Particular Attention To Watches, Warnings And Statements
That Are Issued By The National Weather Service Regarding This
Developing Severe Thunderstorm Situation. Listen To Noaa Weather
Radio All Hazards Or Your Local Media Outlet For Additional Updates
On This Heightened Severe Weather Potential This Afternoon Into
Tonight.

$$

Gorse

[slorydn1]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 061526
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1126 AM EDT SUN JUN 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING WILL TRACK TO A POSITION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. ANOTHER LOW AND SERIES OF FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SHOULD ENTER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE AREA UNDER A MODERATE RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND HAS NOW ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR
THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. BE ALERT FOR QUICKLY
DETERIORATING WEATHER AND PAY ATTENTION TO WATCHES, WARNINGS, AND
OTHER STATEMENTS ISSUED.

WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING, THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY BECOMING UNSTABLE, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY FAVOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL ARE LIKELY, AND THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW TORNADOES ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL. PLEASE FOLLOW ALL SEVERE
WEATHER RULES AND BE WATCHFUL OF THE SKIES AND TAKE SHELFTER IF
YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTDOORS AND SEE APPROACHING STORMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING WILL END OVERNIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATER
TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND
READINGS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. LOWS FOR THE
MOST PART WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS THE NORTHER
COUNTIES.