Weather Forecast for All-Star Weekend

[slorydn1]

Friday: A chance of showers, mainly after 1pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 80. Calm wind becoming southeast between 4 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 62. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Southeast wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. East southeast wind between 3 and 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.


Ahh, what would a race weekend at Charlotte Motor Speedway be without a 40 % chance of rain.....every stinking year

[slorydn1]

000
FXUS62 KGSP 201844
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
244 PM EDT THU MAY 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS FROM
THE NORTHWEST...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY EVENING....WHILE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN TN. THE RAPID UPDATE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL(HRRR)INDICATES
THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL MAKE A RUN AT WESTERN NC...SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS AFTER 00Z IN THAT AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
THAT ENOUGH CONVECTION MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE INTO WESTERN NC.
HOWEVER EVEN IF THE CONVECTION FALLS APART...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
THAT PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN NC BY DAYBREAK AS UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. EXPECT SHOWERS TO SPREAD QUICKLY EASTWARD FRI
MORNING WITH IMPROVING ISENTROPIC LIFT/UPPER DIVERGENCE/PVA
DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA
OF RAMPING UP POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LIKELY FOOTHILLS AND MOST OF THE SC PIEDMONT. IN
THE NC PIEDMONT...LOOKS LIKE FORCING WILL BE LACKING FOR NO MORE
THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON AS WEAK WEDGE ERODES ALLOWING FOR SOME
INSTABLILTY TO DEVELOP. RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE RAINFALL
WILL BE EXCESSIVE. CURRENT QPF GRIDS SHOW MAX RAINFALL OF 3/4 INCH
OVER FAR WESTERN NC WITH MUCH LOWER TOTALS OUT OVER THE PIEDMONT.
USED A BLEND OF MOS GUID FOR MIN/MAX TEMPS.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...DESPITE PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND THE
DOWNSTREAM TRANSLATION OF ASSOCIATED DEEP Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
FRIDAY NIGHT...BROAD FLOW REGIME REMAINS CONDUCIVE TO CONTINUED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WHERE TERRAIN LIFT WILL AID IN PCPN.
OP NAM AND SREF RESPONSE TACKS ON AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF
RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT ACRS THE MTNS/FTHLS...AND BUFKIT FCST
SNDGS YIELD THIN ELEVATED CAPE LEADING TO THE INCLUSION OF EMBEDDED
TSTM CHANCE WITHIN NUMEROUS SHOWER CVRG.

FLOW DEVELOPS INTO AN ODD LOOKING PATTERN SATURDAY AS MEAN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS LINGERS NEAR THE COAST AND NW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS
SOME ATOP THE REGION. SFC PATTERN BECOMES MORE NEBULOUS WITH
TIME...ALTHOUGH A EASTERLY COMPONENT REMAINS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
FROM 925MB AND BELOW. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT 09 UTC SREF
PROBABILITIES OF CAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 500 J/KG ARE HIGH IN THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND A DEGREE OF DEEP/EFFECTIVE SHEAR...FEEL THAT TSTM PROBABILITIES
COULD BE ENHANCED BY A FEW STRONG STORMS.

PATTERN ATOP THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ON SUNDAY...WITH
ELONGATED RIDGE POKING UP TO OUR WEST AND THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
MODERATE MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWFA. WITH THE
PRESENCE OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER LLVL ENELY FLOW AND RIDGING DEVELOPING
SSW INTO THE REGION...WILL TREND THE FCST COOLER...CLOUDIER AND
INCREASE SHOWER/EMBEDDED TSTM CHANCES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

[slorydn1]

Today: A slight chance of showers between 11am and 2pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. South southeast wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 62. Calm wind becoming south southeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. South southwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. East southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

[slorydn1]

000
FXUS62 KGSP 211150
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
750 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. MOISTURE FROM
THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE COAST...CAUSING ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MOVE INLAND NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MS
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY FILL. SHORTWAVES EJECTING EWD FROM THIS
TROUGH ARE DRIVING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE S EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A LEAD BATCH OF MOISTURE ADVANCING E INTO THE BASE OF
THE SRN APPALACHIANS. LIGHTNING STRIKE RATES ARE TAPERING OFF AND
CLOUD TOPS ARE RAPIDLY WARMING...BUT SOME SHOWERS SHOULD SURVIVE
INTO AT LEAST THE SW THIRD OF CWA THROUGH DAYBREAK.

ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER FORCING WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTN THROUGH
EVENING...WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION COINCIDENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE
SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH S TO SE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO IMPROVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN UPSLOPE AREAS.
LATE DAY POPS SHOULD RANGE FROM CATEGORICAL IN AND NEAR THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOW END CHC IN THE ERN PIEDMONT. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS. MODEL SIGNALS ARE MIXED ON
INSTABILITY FOR LATE TODAY...BUT THE MOST UNSTABLE SECTION WITH
HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE THE SRN TIER...WITH HIGHER TSTM
CHANCES ADVERTISED THERE.

WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT ADDITIONAL QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AS THE BETTER UPPER FORCING GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. WILL
FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL MINS WITH THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM EDT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY SATURDAY...AND MOVE TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL FOLLOW IN IT WAKE...BUT WILL HALT
OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THE LOW WILL REACH THE NC COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A
BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF A FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY...SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION.
AS AXIS OF THE MOISTURE BAND EXITS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...POPS DROP
OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE WEST. ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INLAND TOP THE NORTH OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...AND CHANCE POPS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD WEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...BUT LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RISING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 230 AM EDT...THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS RUNS START MONDAY WITH
AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS PATTERN HOLD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE ATLANTIC LOW OPENS UP....WHILE THE GFS
PROGRESSES ITS RIDGE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WILL PRODUCE A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC AND INTO OUR AREA...WITH AT LEAST SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT
PRESENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SCATTERED CONVECTION ON
MONDAY...AND ISOLATED CONVECTION THEREAFTER AS CONFIDENCE DECREASES
IN THE AMOUNT AND DURATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ATLANTIC MOISTURE MAY HOLD MAXIMUMS
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ELEVATED.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AT KCLT...VFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED UPSTREAM OVER UPSTATE SC
EARLY THIS MORNING...IR CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM AND COVERAGE
SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE ACTIVITY REACHES THE DRIER AIR OF WRN NC. SFC
WINDS HAVE ALREADY ADJUSTED SE...AND THIS DIRECTION REMAINS LIKELY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN THE VICINITY
OF KCLT AFTER 22Z THIS AFTN. THE WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOGGLE BACK TO
ENE IN WEAK IN SITU CAD IF ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTN. A
STEADY LOWERING OF CIGS IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR LIKELY
BY 08Z.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH
THE AFTN HOURS. KAVL TO KAND SHOULD BE THE FIRST LOCATIONS TO SEE
MVFR CIGS LATE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SHOWER COVERAGE PICKS
UP FROM THE SW WITH UPPER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE. E TO NE WINDS
THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SE THROUGH THE DAY. KAND TO KGSP
WOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY LATE DAY TSTM...BUT INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

OUTLOOK...AFTER VERY BRIEF DRYING SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...HIGH PRES
WILL PUSH ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE E SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG

[slorydn1]

This Afternoon: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. South southwest wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Light south southeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.


Typical May weather in Charlotte

[slorydn1]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-spartanburg Sc
1125 Am Edt Sat May 22 2010

Gaz010-017-018-026-028-029-ncz035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-
Scz001>014-019-231530-
Rabun-habersham-stephens-franklin-hart-elbert-alexander-iredell-
Davie-catawba-rowan-cleveland-lincoln-gaston-mecklenburg-cabarrus-
Union Nc-caldwell Mountains-greater Caldwell-burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-mcdowell Mountains-eastern Mcdowell-
Rutherford Mountains-greater Rutherford-polk Mountains-eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-pickens Mountains-greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-greater Pickens-greater Greenville-spartanburg-
Cherokee-york-anderson-abbeville-laurens-union Sc-chester-greenwood-
1125 Am Edt Sat May 22 2010

This Hazardous Weather Outlook Is For Northeast Georgia...piedmont
North Carolina...western North Carolina And Upstate South Carolina.

.day One...this Afternoon And Tonight.

Scattered Thunderstorms Are Expected To Develop This Afternoon And
Evening Across The Western Carolinas And Northeast Georgia. Any Of
The Thunderstorms May Produce Frequent Cloud To Ground Lightning And
Brief Heavy Rain. The Strongest Thunderstorms Will Likely Develop
Across The North Carolina Foothills And Piedmont...as Well As
Upstate South Carolina Locations East Of Interstate 26. Some Of
These Thunderstorms May Produce Damaging Wind Gusts And Hail As
Large As Quarters...especially Near The Interstate 77 Corridor.

.days Two Through Seven...sunday Through Friday.

Isolated To Scattered Thunderstorms Are In The Forecast For
Sunday...with A Few Of These Thunderstorms Could Be Severe...
Producing Large Hail And Damaging Winds.

.spotter Information Statement...

Skywarn Spotters Are Requested To Forward Any Reports Of Large
Hail...damaging Winds...tornadoes Or Flash Flooding To Our Office.

[slorydn1]

000
FXUS62 KGSP 221435
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1035 AM EDT SAT MAY 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TODAY.
MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL APPROACH
THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THIS LOW
WILL BRING MOISTURE WEST TO OUR AREA. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CAN INFER IMPULSE DRIVING SHOWER ACTIVITY EASTWARD ACRS THE PIEDMONT
THIS MORNING AND IT IS DEBATABLE WHETHER WEAK NVA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE WITH DELAY DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
RUC HRRR AND LOCAL WRF DOES NOT THINK SO AS DESTABILIZATION PROCESS
WILL PROGRESS STEADILY WITHIN CONVERGENT LLVL THETA-E AXIS...AS
INFERRED FROM 12 UTC 85H ANALYSIS. AIDED BY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS...
LEE TROUGHING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS...WOULD EXPECT EARLY AFTERNOON
DEEP CONVECTIVE REINITIATION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH STORMS
EVOLVING INTO THE PIEDMONT THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. SHEAR
PROFILES ON AREA OBSERVED AND MODIFIED SNDGS COULD SUPPORT EVEN
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES ACRS WESTERN NC.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PULL SLOWLY AWAY TO THE NE THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALLOWING GREATER RIDGING TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. LOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES PERSISTING ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A FAIRLY SMALL DIURNAL
RANGE OF TEMPS GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

[slorydn1]

Day 1 Convective Outlook
Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
0745 Am Cdt Sat May 22 2010

Valid 221300z - 231200z

...there Is A Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms Across The Nrn Plains...

...there Is A Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms Over Parts Of The Carolinas...

...synopsis...
Upper Air Pattern This Period Will Be Dominated By A Belt Of Fast
Swly Flow From The Lower Co River Valley To The Dakotas/mn On The
Ern Flank Of A Large Scale Trough Established Over The Wrn U.s. This
Stronger Flow Will Coincide With A Slow-moving Deep-layer Frontal
Zone Along Which The Most Significant Perturbation Will Track Out Of
The Intermountain Region And Over The Dakotas Later Today.

Downstream From The Wrn U.s. Tough...upper Ridge Will Build Across
The Ms Valley And Great Lakes As A Weakening Upper Trough Is Shunted
Ewd Across The Appalachians/mid Atlantic.

...nrn Plains...
Potent Low Level Jet Of 50-60kt Was Continuing To Transport High
Theta-e Air Nwd Across The Great Plains This Morning Beneath
Well-defined Cap/elevated Mixed Layer Emanating From The Higher
Terrain Upstream /ref Lbf Raob With Observed 8.6c Per Km 700-500mb
Lapse Rate...0.84 Inch Pw...and 14c Temp At 700mb/.

Ongoing Mcs Across Ern Sd Was Being Fueled By This Plume Of Elevated
Instability And Sustained By Mass And Moisture Influx On The Nose Of
60kt Low Level Jet. Additional/recent Development Has Occurred On
The Edge Of The Cap Across Ern Neb And Is Forecast To Drift Into Ia
This Morning Perhaps Posing A Threat For Isolated Large Hail /ref
Swomcd Number 660/.

Another Round Of Robust Convective Development Is Expected Later
Today Across Parts Of Ern Wy And The Adjacent High Plains As A
Low-amplitude Short Wave Trough Emerges Across The High Plains And
Acts On Warm And Very Unstable Air Mass From Neb Nwd Across The
Dakotas. By Late Afternoon Expect Mlcape Values In This Area To
Exceed 3000 J Per Kg. While Cap Will Likely Hold Across Much Of The
Plains South Of Neb...combination Of Surface Heating And Weak Height
Falls With Approaching Short Wave Should Be Sufficient To Overcome
Remaining Inhibition And Support Thunderstorm Initiation In Strongly
Sheared Deep-layer Flow.

Thunderstorms Will Occur Coincident With Weak Frontal Wave Tracking
Newd Along The Surface Front...and A Dry Line Nosing Enewd Near The
Sd/neb Border. Modest Low Level Hodograph Curvature And Magnitude Of
Instability Suggest That A Couple Of Tornadoes And Very
Large/damaging Hail Will Be Possible With Discrete
Storms/supercells. This Activity May Struggle To Become More
Widespread Initially Due To Strong Capping And Tendency For Storms
To Take On More Linear Characteristics And Be Undercut Along The
Frontal Zone Where Strongest Mesoscale Forcing Can Act To Further
Erode The Cap.

Forcing Along The Edge Of The Cap Through The Evening And Then
Strengthening Nocturnal Low Level Jet Should Contribute To Severe
Mcs Evolving Across Sd...and Perhaps Parts Of Nd...and Then
Spreading Enewd Into Mn Through Early Sunday Morning.

...nc Piedmont To Sc Midlands...
Modest Nw Flow Of 20-30kt And Gradual Diurnal Destabilization...with
Sbcape Ranging From 1000 To 2000 J Per Kg By Afternoon...may Support
Increasing Severe Storm Potential These Areas. Forcing For Larger
Scale Ascent Will Be Subtle But It Appears Region Will Come Under
The Influence Of Weak Height Falls From The Trough Passing North Of
The Area And Lee-trough Will Become Coincident With Axis Of Greatest
Forecast Destabilization.

Effective Bulk Shear On The Order Of 30kt Will Further Aid Storm
Persistence And Organization With A Few Hailstones Possibly
Exceeding One Inch Along With Locally Damaging Wind Gusts.

...west Tx...
Hot Temperatures Exceeding 90f...terrain Influences...and Dry Line
Mixing May Prove Sufficient To Overcome Warm Eml And Result In
Isolated Storm Development Late This Afternoon As Indicated In Some
Numerical Guidance. Chances For Numerous Storms Appear Low But
Abundant Cape And Adequate Shear This Region Suggest A Conditional
Low Probability Of Severe Hail/wind Is Warranted.