Pre-Season Analysis & Team Rankings

[truefan72]

So with one day of testing to go here is how I rank them


1. Mclaren
Well I'm biased, but that aside, I think their car is fast, reliable and probably overall the best car. They have managed to not show their true hand yet. Hamilton will push that car well and Button will keep him more than honest.

2. Ferrari
A very very strong car, but I have some small lingering questions as to reliability and fuel consumption. I think their engine is a beast and they have alonso who, despite my personal dislike is still going to get more out of that car than others would.

3. RBR
TBH before testing, or seeing the cars, this was my odds on favorite for top team, but I think they have some issues with the car and clearly the other teams (especially the top 2) have caught up. That being said, I think RBR is right there with the other top 2 and will probably fight for the WCC and top step in all races.

4.Mercedes
just half a step below. MSC and Rosberg are a strong pair. The car really is quite good but I think they were slightly conservative with their development. I expect an ever improving car over the season and perhaps a few victories as well. To me they are a bit of a mystery. Either they are going to be really really good, or they will be a solid topish team like BMW in 2007-2008.

5. Force India
Challengers with the occasional podium and capable of maybe a race win. Superior engine, close partnership with Mclaren, a driver who should now be coming into his own in sutil. I expect force India to be constantly in Q3 and running solidly in the points. I think liuzzi is decent but he will be hampered by the shadow of Di Resta all year which is really not a good thing.

6. Sauber
1 of 2 genuine dark horses of the year. I must admit to eating some crow with regard to PDLR. He's far from washed up. Kobayashi is just plain fast and aggressive. The Ferrari engines work well with this chassis and the BMW development of this car makes it a solid competitor that will take some bites at the podium and prove a challenge to the top teams, especially in trying to overtake them. They will be very strong in qualy.

7. STR
Solid mid pack with a good engine and one strong up and coming driver in Buemi. Not sure Jaime lasts the season ( look for a surprise move of perhaps grosjean) I think that the STR will be quick right off the bat, but will have a mid season lull as developments will not be as prolific as others.

8. Williams
A slight edge to williams over renault. Nico will surprise a few people and Williams will be lucky to hold on to him for more than a year. i honestly see him ending up with mercedes latest 2012 for the Nico/Nico team. Rubens will acquit him self admirably and the team will do fairly well in qualy as well.

9. Renault
What can i say. things will dependent how motivate Kubica will be. The car is obviously in need of improvements but a dependable engine and a god driver should see them score some points, but not do too much this year. I hope I'm wrong.

10. Stefan GP
The other genuine dark horse. I place them in 10th because until I see the cars running and the driver lineup, I can't really rank them higher. But I do think that if they have those Toyota 2010 cars, Toyota support, and a solid organization, these guys could shoot right up to 5th or 6th. It will just take them a few races to get into their element because of the lack of testing. but once they do I fully expect them to be fighting with Sauber & Force India for points.

11. Lotus
Reliable but not as fast as Virgin. Their advantage, 2 solid drivers and a knowledgeable staff. But in general will be running in the back in their own personal battle with Virgin. Still interesting though. Makes you wish for more TV options to just view that battle.

12. Virgin
faster but not as reliable as Lotus. Reliability is the key here for Virgin. and they seem to have plenty of glitches and pesky issues with the car. But if all goes well i think that both Glock and DiGrassi will initially put some distance between them and the lotus, only to be reeled in later in the race. Qualy might be the key here and they will surely do better.

13. Campos
I think they will be racing in 2010 but might not show up in Bahrain. To me they will clearly be last on the gird and probably be occasionally 2 laps down in races. But I just want to see the cars on the grid to add some variety and spice to the season.


No predictions as to WDC too close to call IMO

[jens]

This winter testing has been massively weird and it's difficult to guess anything. There even seems to be less guesses by insiders about rankings than in previous pre-seasons!

The common consensus seems to be that Ferrari is quite good, maybe a fraction ahead of Red Bull. This impression has existed in F1 circles quite right from the beginning of testing. Then again Ferrari was rated higher than RBR last year at the same time too... McLaren is a strange one - I don't think they have seemed quite as good in Barcelona as on previous circuits. I suspect they may still have a slight deficiency in aerodynamics - but in any case their situation seems much better than last year. Mercedes seems behind all three in second tier.

Others are a bit mystery. They have managed to leave a good impression here and there, but how exactly do they fit in the grand scheme of things against others, is unclear to me. I think all nine established teams should be taken into account in fighting for Q3 places come Bahrain. Maybe Sauber has seemed the most impressive among them - wouldn't rule out an odd podium challenge initially. Force India hasn't seemed as impressive at Barcelona as in Jerez, but they shouldn't be discounted. Williams and STR have left a positive impression, but a top fight is probably too optimistic - Q3 and points could be a reasonable expectation. Renault looks like the team with most trouble among the established teams.

All in all - the field is tight like last year. Only the two new teams are clearly behind others. Virgin looked a bit faster initially, but Lotus seems to have more development and improvement potential, so they may come out ahead soon.

[Robinho]

i see it similarly but i'd say that;

the Red Bull is probably the out and out quickest car (ultimate pace), the Ferrari the quicker over the long runs, but both looking slightly fragile, and both perhaps compromised (RB will qualify v well and potentially drop back in the races, the Ferrari might be down on qually pace but be looking to move forward in the race)

in between i'd say Mclaren and Merc have neither quite the ultimate one lap pace, nor the fastest race pace, but perhaps the better compromise between the 2.

of course all of that is pretty difficult to quantify.

just behind the top 4, Williams, Renault, Sauber, Torro Rosso and Force India all seem to have some genuine pace to upset the top boys should they have an off day and all look capable of points - looks like an incredbily close midfield that is nipping at the heels of the top 4.

i think Virgin and Lotus will both close the gap to the pack pretty quickly, but i can't see either getting off the back couple of rows in anything other than exceptional circumstances, they'll get within a couple of seconds instead of 4 or 5 pretty quickly before diminishing returns set in.

if Campos and USF1 turn up they'll be well off the back

[Mia 01]

I´m a fan of Kimi, but I´m sorry, I have to conclude the following.

1. Ferrari
2. Sauber
3. Mercedes
4. Red Bull
5. Force India/MacLaren
6. Renualt
The rest

[christophulus]

the Red Bull is probably the out and out quickest car (ultimate pace), the Ferrari the quicker over the long runs, but both looking slightly fragile, and both perhaps compromised (RB will qualify v well and potentially drop back in the races, the Ferrari might be down on qually pace but be looking to move forward in the race)

in between i'd say Mclaren and Merc have neither quite the ultimate one lap pace, nor the fastest race pace, but perhaps the better compromise between the 2.

I'd agree, there is no stand-out performer at the minute, the four teams mentioned are all pretty close. Williams leading the fight for 5th (hopefully....)

[jens]

I'm personally not actually sure that we can draw a clear line between "Big 4" and "others" like some seem to do. I think they are all pretty well mixed, although it could be a long shot to expect a race win from the "group of underdogs". Then again, you never know - Force India got close last year.

[ojciec dyrektor]

Why do You think Renault is so bad? Kubica had second best time in four day testing in Jerez. He completed 217 laps. Only 3 drivers completed more laps than Kubica.

[Sonic]

I'm personally not actually sure that we can draw a clear line between "Big 4" and "others" like some seem to do. I think they are all pretty well mixed, although it could be a long shot to expect a race win from the "group of underdogs". Then again, you never know - Force India got close last year.

You may well be right. Everyone has had a turn at the top so far in testing so we are still probably totally in the dark!

For what its worth my (educated) guess is;

Ferrari - Perhaps a tenth or two off the ultimate pace but very consistent.
Red Bull - Fastest? But still fragile.
McLaren - Quiet for most of testing with blasts of speed here and there. I put them third because of the weird contraptions they keep hooking up to the car - it makes me nervous that they're not sure why the car is doing what it is doing?
Mercedes - Schumacher has revised his estimate of the car upwards and I wouldn't be surprised if they'll develop the most over the season.
Williams - Solid and improving everytime out. First win in 5 years?

Then everyone else Lotus, Virgin and Campos at the foot in that order.

[jens]

Why do You think Renault is so bad? Kubica had second best time in four day testing in Jerez. He completed 217 laps. Only 3 drivers completed more laps than Kubica.

Depends, what can be meant by "bad". At the present moment I don't expect more from Renault than Kubica narrowly pressing himself into Q3. Well, something similar to what Alonso managed in the beginning of the previous two seasons.

[F1boat]

This is a very difficult season to predict and I prefer to wait for the final testing session before jumping to conclusions, but IMO for now it seems that Ferrari are slightly in front of RBR, McLaren and Mercedes GP. Williams and Sauber also seem to have very good cars.

[N. Jones]

1. USF1 - the come into race four and win out to prove the doubters wrong!

:D :D :D

[ojciec dyrektor]

Depends, what can be meant by "bad". At the present moment I don't expect more from Renault than Kubica narrowly pressing himself into Q3. Well, something similar to what Alonso managed in the beginning of the previous two seasons.
Q3 will be very good result. I think Renault is underestimated, but it's good because the expectations are low. :)

[Robinho]

given this mornings times at Barcelona i mainatain there is nothing much between the top 4 - all in 1:20's (which seems to be the benchmark for qually pace of the top guys) 1/4 of second between Hamilton, Massa, Vettel and Schumi

[DazzlaF1]

Here's how I rank them

1. McLaren: A strong and reliable package coupled with aruably the strongest driver pairing on the grid bodes well for McLaren

2. Ferrari: Great improvement shown compared to last season and Alonso looks quick but I feel that they are not on par with McLaren in terms of overall race pace yet.

3. Red Bull: Slight reliability problems early on but overall Adrian Newey looks as if he's produced another great car in terms of overall pace

4. Mercedes: Despite Schumi's presence, I feel that they have struggled to keep up with the top 3 but they are way clear of the others, could challenge for wins near the end of the season if they keep up with development.

5. Williams: For me, the suprise of the winter, a clever aerodynamic package boosted by Barrichello's vast experience and the performance of the Cossie too, seems Williams were right about it being a great engine better than last year's Toyota powerplant.

6. Sauber: No clear indication yet on overall race pace, but the early signs are good. de la Rosa's experience coupled with Kobayashi's potential should see Sauber regularly challenging for points and the odd podium.

7. Force India: Showing great improvement compared to last season, Sutil looks quick and should be a top 10 regular.

8. Renault: Kubica's prsence should help both the team and newcomer Vitaly Petrov, the car is questionable but you can forgive them for being affected by the uncertainty surrounding Renault's involvement. Now with the future seemingly secured, hopefully they can push on.

9. Toro Rosso: Pace has been a tad inconsistent in my view, but they should have enough to finish clear of the newbies.

10. Lotus: The car's pace has improved over time and they have clearly the stronger lineup of all the new teams, reliability has been good so far too. Considering also thisteam and car have been designed and built up in just over 5 months is incredible and they deserve all the praise coming their way

11. Virgin: Reliability woes have hindered them but when they have managed some decent track time, their pace has been good, like Lotus, they also deserve a hell of a lot of credit for their efforts.

12. Campos Meta/Carabrante: Shrouded in uncertainty throughout the winter, it looks like the've finally sorted themselves out and will be in Bahrain. It will be very inriguing to see how the Dallara chassis turns out

Im not including StefanGP or USF1 yet in this list.

[N. Jones]

I would put them in this order:

1. McLaren
2. Red Bull
3. Mercedes
4. Ferrari
5,6,7,8 - Fore India, Sauber, Williams, Renault
9. STR
10. Lotus
11. Virgin
12. Campos
13. USF1

This duel for the championship as I see it will be between McLaren and Red Bull. I feel that Mercedes is behind the pace of the other two and I am afraid that in-fighting and lack of pace will doom Ferrari for fourth.

I bundled 5-8 together because I think these four teams will fight for points and maybe the occasional 4th place. I see FI and Williams as the best bet for a podium if there is a lot of attrition during any given GP.

STR has too youngsters, one of whom has only seen half of the circuits.

The other teams are new and will not fight for points this season.

[F1boat]

After the final test I now think that the top 4 teams are pretty equal, as crazy as it seems. This in my opinion may give the advantage to Mercedes GP as Ross Brawn is undoubtedly the best strategist and I hope that their new diffuser is really good and helpful. McLaren also has very good strategists, while Ferrari and RBR suffer a bit in this. But it seems to be really close!

[SGWilko]

Strategy this year boils down to;

Tyres - how the car heats them up for qually and uses them in the race. Also how the tyres last per track per compound.

Fuel. Effect of load, consumption etc.

Stops. Depends on the penalty per track due to the above factors plus time taken in and out per pit layout.

If your car does not work well in qually and race, but is better in one area only, it will be good for you at some tracks, and bad at others.

The potential the top 5 is very evenly balanced - its all to play for.

[K-Pu]

My prediction...

1.- Ferrari. And I don´t like them, but it seems to me they have a great car with a great pair of drivers, stronger than the Hamilton / Button pair.

2.- McLaren. They´re going quite well, and no doubt they´re on the run for the championship.

3.-Red Bull: This one is a bit uncertain, but Newey + Renault low-consuming engines is a good package.

4.- Mercedes. It seems clear they´re not the all-conquering team of last year´s 1st half of the season, but they will be challenging for good results, although maybe not inmediately, and they have great drivers. Note: I´m one of the "MS-haters", a plague that will come back again this season :D .

5.- Sauber. A good work by BMW, a powerful engine and a decent driver lineup, including my favourite driver, Pedro. They can be scoring consistenly.

6.- Williams. Another point scoring team, the best of the Cosworths.

7.- Force India. If things go alright, they could do something interesting with the Merc engine, but I don´t see them as podium finishers.

8.- Renault. They´re in trouble, but at least I hope they´ll be ahead of Toro Rosso, although if they continue with their free fall, they´ll be at the back.

9.- Toro Rosso. Having some experience will put them ahead of the new teams, but they can be caught...

10.- Lotus. Ahead of Virging because of the drivers. Trulli and Kovalainen could perform better, but you never know...

11.- Virgin. Performance-wise, they´re on the same level as Lotus, I think, but drivers can mark the difference.

12.- Campos. Dead last. Unless...

13.- Stefan GP makes their way to the grid, which I see quite impossible. Yes, they have bought a full Toyota equipment, but how are they going to hit the grid? Let´s assume they´re allowed to race... No testing at all, a team stopped for some months, a more than dubious management... I don´t see them doing anything good. But...

14.- ... What if by some miracle USF1 is allowed to race, even 4 races after the start of the season? At least Stefan wouldn´t be the last, because these guys would be... how many seconds behind? Anyway, this is really impossible, so it doesn´t matter.

[Sleeper]

All I've got an idea of is that there are three main groups with Ferrari, McLaren, Mercedes and RBR as the front runners, and Williams, Force India, Sauber, Renault and STR just behind them, then a clear gap to Lotus and Virgin.

Of the three groups, Lotus beating Virgin is the only preiction I'm going to make and thats down to reliability, the Virgin has only once completed the equivelant of GP distance in one day. With the other groups, the poor weather, the uncertainty over who's running what fuel loads and the fact that track and ambient tempretures will be so massively higher in the races that it could turn the order on its head means I havnt the foggiest idea whos going to win.

[F1boat]

All I've got an idea of is that there are three main groups with Ferrari, McLaren, Mercedes and RBR as the front runners, and Williams, Force India, Sauber, Renault and STR just behind them, then a clear gap to Lotus and Virgin.

Of the three groups, Lotus beating Virgin is the only preiction I'm going to make and thats down to reliability, the Virgin has only once completed the equivelant of GP distance in one day. With the other groups, the poor weather, the uncertainty over who's running what fuel loads and the fact that track and ambient tempretures will be so massively higher in the races that it could turn the order on its head means I havnt the foggiest idea whos going to win.

That's pretty good prediction in my opinion.

[Wasted Talent]

I´m a fan of Kimi, but I´m sorry, I have to conclude the following.

1. Ferrari
2. Sauber
3. Mercedes
4. Red Bull
5. Force India/MacLaren
6. Renualt
The rest

5. FI/MacLaren :) :) :)

WT

[Wasted Talent]

Here's how I rank them

1. McLaren: A strong and reliable package coupled with aruably the strongest driver pairing on the grid bodes well for McLaren

2. Ferrari: Great improvement shown compared to last season and Alonso looks quick but I feel that they are not on par with McLaren in terms of overall race pace yet.

3. Red Bull: Slight reliability problems early on but overall Adrian Newey looks as if he's produced another great car in terms of overall pace

4. Mercedes: Despite Schumi's presence, I feel that they have struggled to keep up with the top 3 but they are way clear of the others, could challenge for wins near the end of the season if they keep up with development.

5. Williams: For me, the suprise of the winter, a clever aerodynamic package boosted by Barrichello's vast experience and the performance of the Cossie too, seems Williams were right about it being a great engine better than last year's Toyota powerplant.

6. Sauber: No clear indication yet on overall race pace, but the early signs are good. de la Rosa's experience coupled with Kobayashi's potential should see Sauber regularly challenging for points and the odd podium.

7. Force India: Showing great improvement compared to last season, Sutil looks quick and should be a top 10 regular.

8. Renault: Kubica's prsence should help both the team and newcomer Vitaly Petrov, the car is questionable but you can forgive them for being affected by the uncertainty surrounding Renault's involvement. Now with the future seemingly secured, hopefully they can push on.

9. Toro Rosso: Pace has been a tad inconsistent in my view, but they should have enough to finish clear of the newbies.

10. Lotus: The car's pace has improved over time and they have clearly the stronger lineup of all the new teams, reliability has been good so far too. Considering also thisteam and car have been designed and built up in just over 5 months is incredible and they deserve all the praise coming their way

11. Virgin: Reliability woes have hindered them but when they have managed some decent track time, their pace has been good, like Lotus, they also deserve a hell of a lot of credit for their efforts.

12. Campos Meta/Carabrante: Shrouded in uncertainty throughout the winter, it looks like the've finally sorted themselves out and will be in Bahrain. It will be very inriguing to see how the Dallara chassis turns out

Im not including StefanGP or USF1 yet in this list.

Looks about right to me

WT

[Mia 01]

5. FI/MacLaren :) :) :)

WT

Sorry :o

Only my brain disorder. :eek:

[SGWilko]

What, the spelling?

Don't worry 'bout the spelling - lost in translation no doubt.

Mia is from Sweden, according to the Stanglers, the only country where the clouds are interesting....

[SGWilko]

Don't worry 'bout the spelling - lost in translation no doubt.

Mia is from Sweden, according to the Stanglers, the only country where the clouds are interesting....

I know another Stranglers song that Tamb no doubt would have me down as whistling as I clean the windows, wanna know what it is??????

[SGWilko]

Peaches? :p

No, that's way too Keith Floyd. It's off the No More Heroes album.....

[SGWilko]

Well I hope to god its not track 1.. :eek:
'Bitching'? :)

I am trying to accomodate the stereotype Tamb has given me......