View Full Version : Gays in Pro/College Sports. Is the macho world of sports ready?
Mark in Oshawa
23rd December 2009, 20:43
With the long and interesting thread on the persecution of gays in Uganda, and the news release of a Welsh Rugby star coming out of the closet, I will add to the conversation my theory that society I think is more than ready and the best evidence of it is seen in this article in ESPN magazine:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/columns/story?columnist=buccigross_john&id=4685761
John Buccigross wrote a story of a young man who isn't in pro sports, but his father and brother certainly are, and the attitudes in hockey he thought were reason for him NOT to play. That said, Brendan Burke is a scout, stats man and employed member of the U of Miami (Ohio) Hockey program and his father is Brian Burke, GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The story of this kid coming out in a family full of testerone and hockey players is a good one. If there was ever evidence of how much people accept gays more than they realize, this story wil point to it. I think most western societies ARE ready, yet no pro athletes really come out until they are retired. I think we are at the tipping point on this change in society..and it will become part of the conversation.
Just your thoughts guys (and ladies)?
Roamy
23rd December 2009, 21:09
What is the new sport the "Dick and Ball Throw" :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:
Robinho
23rd December 2009, 21:13
ther have been a few "out" gays in top flight football (soccer) in the UK, and there are constant rumours flying around about several more these days - statistically there are bound to be a few, but i'd imagine it would be even harder to be an out gay top flight sportsman, than an out gay man in everyday life, given the amount of scrutiny everything you do is under.
Mark in Oshawa
23rd December 2009, 21:29
ther have been a few "out" gays in top flight football (soccer) in the UK, and there are constant rumours flying around about several more these days - statistically there are bound to be a few, but i'd imagine it would be even harder to be an out gay top flight sportsman, than an out gay man in everyday life, given the amount of scrutiny everything you do is under.
See...I wonder about that. I always thought that too. Now I am not so sure. Maybe there would be some initial resistance, but I think society is ahead of the sportswriters and many actually in the sport, and as the wall came down, it would come down pretty hard. There will be some hotheads out there, but unlike the colour barrier in pro sports in the US falling, this barrier will come down quicker and will become a non-story I think within a few years.....
Robinho
23rd December 2009, 21:44
See...I wonder about that. I always thought that too. Now I am not so sure. Maybe there would be some initial resistance, but I think society is ahead of the sportswriters and many actually in the sport, and as the wall came down, it would come down pretty hard. There will be some hotheads out there, but unlike the colour barrier in pro sports in the US falling, this barrier will come down quicker and will become a non-story I think within a few years.....
general society would likely be fine - Gareth Thomas has come out (pardon the pun) and stated how overwhelmed he has been by the support he's received. there will always be a few idiots who would use it as a way of getting to a player, the same as there are always a few who will use monkey chants against black players (on the opposing team, not their own) for example.
the issue i think will be the odd opposing player who goes too far on the pitch (some sports "stars" are not that far up the evolutionary ladder and often don't think first), whilst it could also cause friction with teammates who cannot handle it. it shouldn't be an issue, but it adds to the already considerable pressure top flight sports stars are under and put themselves under
Mark in Oshawa
23rd December 2009, 21:48
general society would likely be fine - Gareth Thomas has come out (pardon the pun) and stated how overwhelmed he has been by the support he's received. there will always be a few idiots who would use it as a way of getting to a player, the same as there are always a few who will use monkey chants against black players (on the opposing team, not their own) for example.
the issue i think will be the odd opposing player who goes too far on the pitch (some sports "stars" are not that far up the evolutionary ladder and often don't think first), whilst it could also cause friction with teammates who cannot handle it. it shouldn't be an issue, but it adds to the already considerable pressure top flight sports stars are under and put themselves under
At some point, the neanderthals in the game have to figure this out.......
Easy Drifter
23rd December 2009, 23:56
Probably the best known in Cdn. motorsports has gone beyond 'coming out'
Once a married man and with three children became a woman.
Canada's only winner of World Championship motorcycle races Mike Duff is now Michelle Duff. I have known Michelle as both.
A few years ago she was at a Mosport race where all the winners of the feature race for 50 years were there. She was accepted by all the other bike racers with no hassles, who all had known her as Mike.
She lives just a few miles from me and we shop in the same grocery store but I haven't happen to have seen her.
Camelopard
24th December 2009, 01:14
Probably the best known in Cdn. motorsports has gone beyond 'coming out'
Once a married man and with three children became a woman.
Canada's only winner of World Championship motorcycle races Mike Duff is now Michelle Duff. I have known Michelle as both.
A few years ago she was at a Mosport race where all the winners of the feature race for 50 years were there. She was accepted by all the other bike racers with no hassles, who all had known her as Mike.
She lives just a few miles from me and we shop in the same grocery store but I haven't happen to have seen her.
I guess this really should be under the Uganda thread.
Being 'gay' and having 'gender dysphoria' are two very different things.
An example of this is is the famous John/Joan case in Canada where following a circumcision mishap on one of a set of male twins, an extremely egotistical doctor by the name of John Money saw his chance to prove his 'Nature vs Nurture' theory with catastrophic results for John/Joan, who ended up committing suicide in 2004.
Read John Colapinto's "As Nature Made Him"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Reimer
http://www.genderpsychology.org/psychology/john_joan.html
wedge
24th December 2009, 01:30
Depends on the sport, I suppose.
Motorsport I think would be fine.
Soccer/football - No. As an example how do you legislate against ironic chants
Camelopard
24th December 2009, 01:40
.......I have known Michelle as both.......
Sorry, what I also meant to say in my post was if you get the chance next time you see Michelle, ask her if she ever saw herself as a 'gay' male prior to transition?
Bezza
24th December 2009, 10:03
Only one footballer has ever come out to my knowledge, and that was Justin Fashanu. Credit to him for coming out, but it wrecked his career and his life completely, leading him to suicide in 1998.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justin_Fashanu
MrJan
24th December 2009, 14:21
Only one footballer has ever come out to my knowledge, and that was Justin Fashanu. Credit to him for coming out, but it wrecked his career and his life completely, leading him to suicide in 1998.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justin_Fashanu
That was terrible but I'd like to think that people would be a bit more accepting now, even though it's not much further on. The problem with being gay in sport is that you always have idiots supporting the team who are extremely homophobic and don't like the idea of someone pulling on their strip if they like men. As a result you need to be really, really good for your own fans not to turn on you, and you'll still get the chants from opposing teams' fans. Part and parcel of football I'm afraid so whoever comes out needs to be very strong minded.
Mark in Oshawa
24th December 2009, 14:39
That was terrible but I'd like to think that people would be a bit more accepting now, even though it's not much further on. The problem with being gay in sport is that you always have idiots supporting the team who are extremely homophobic and don't like the idea of someone pulling on their strip if they like men. As a result you need to be really, really good for your own fans not to turn on you, and you'll still get the chants from opposing teams' fans. Part and parcel of football I'm afraid so whoever comes out needs to be very strong minded.
I think it says volumes about "football" fans if that is the abuse the poor guy took.
Drifter, in the case of Mike/Michelle Duff, that is a transsexual, which is different again than a gay. Similar, but most gays like the parts they own, they just have their preference for the same sex, which is different than being dissatisified with their own body.
Robinho
24th December 2009, 15:47
when Fashanu was playing there was a huge racism problem as well, so being a young black gay footballer he was a huge unwitting target for the dregs, bith watching and playing the game
MrJan
24th December 2009, 19:39
I think it says volumes about "football" fans if that is the abuse the poor guy took.
It's not all football fans (every sport has dickheads who follow it) and for the most part the jeers from opposition fans is a key part of the game. It's not reserved for just gay people though, fat, short, long-haird, gingers, bald people, northern people all get a bit of a ribbing from the terrace. There is also an unwritten rule that you boo any player who used to play for your rivals. When we play Plymouth Argyle next year there could be a player who gets an unbelievable amount of abuse because he used to play for us and defected to them. It all stems from the tribal nature of the sport and he'll no doubt be expecting a warm welcome.
In the case of Fashnu it was excessive but I'd like to think that the country and the sport have moved on.
Mark in Oshawa
24th December 2009, 20:46
I don't quite understand why it has to be so tribal. Listen, there are HUGE rivalries in North American football, hockey and other sports, but I suppose Football and hockey over here have the nastiest conflicts for rivalries. Yet I have been to some good rivalry games and there never is anything really nasty said other than some good ribbing, and the songs are more pro to the team being cheered for. There isn't really any nasty changes and racist slurs? They may exist in an abstract way, but the player would never hear it.
The nastiest fans in North America are in Philadelphia, where they once cheered when Dallas Cowboy receiver Michael Irvan was carried off on a stretcher, but I suspect even then, there was a lot of people in Philadelphia ashamed of it. I think the football fans in some nations of Europe are less civilized than our hooligans. They must be.....I just cannot fathom that.
Our hated rival up the road from Peterborough ON comes in 4 times a year to play the local Generals, and Peterborough fans are teased but not assaulted. Their players endure some catcalling, but it is all in the spirit of rivialry, and if a kid playing for them was gay, I am sure there wouldn't be a slur tolerated. I guess we keep it in some sort of perspective. I don't know...I would hate to think the discucssion on how safe someone would be has to be had when it comes to the Premier League or FA competition.
MrJan
25th December 2009, 03:10
I would hate to think the discucssion on how safe someone would be has to be had when it comes to the Premier League or FA competition.
I very much doubt that there would be any safety aspect, just that players in football get a lot of jeering from the crowd. Racism is something which isn't really tolerated but you can occassionally hear from the crowd. I live in a predominantly white area and have heard one or two people shout some pretty nasty stuff. However if a steward were to hear then they could be banned from football grounds. Like you say there are generally more songs which are pro the team :)
On the assault thing don't believe everything you hear or see in films like Green Street. Hooliganism is very much in the minority now, you get odd bunches of idiots who enjoy fighting but for the most part they keep it to themselves and away from the ground.
SportscarBruce
25th December 2009, 18:25
Gays in sports.
wgaf
:dozey:
anthonyvop
25th December 2009, 21:40
Gays in sports.
wgaf
:dozey:
I guess this thread is for people who have never seen the LPGA or the WNBA.
SportscarBruce
25th December 2009, 22:25
I've seen them. What matters to me as a sports product consumer is the quality of competition, not the agendas of social/political activist groups. In the realm of sports civil rights injustices tend to sort themselves out due to the fact it is a competition. Jackie Robinson broke barriers not as a result of a PR campaign but through his talent. If you want to win you place on the field the best people available, or else you lose. Darwin's Law in the realm of human competition sorts it out.
Brown, Jon Brow
26th December 2009, 12:52
I guess this thread is for people who have never seen the LPGA or the WNBA.
Gays in macho sports!!! :p
Sports don't come much more macho than Rugby and one of the scariest looking rugby players has surprised the sport by 'coming out'
http://www.srwc2009.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/gareth-he-likes-it-doesnt-he1.jpg
Mark in Oshawa
26th December 2009, 20:41
Gays in macho sports!!! :p
Sports don't come much more macho than Rugby and one of the scariest looking rugby players has surprised the sport by 'coming out'
http://www.srwc2009.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/gareth-he-likes-it-doesnt-he1.jpg
That's one ugly dude...lol
Mark in Oshawa
26th December 2009, 20:45
I guess this thread is for people who have never seen the LPGA or the WNBA.
Tony, you know darn well no one in the NHL, NBA, NFL or MLB is who I am really referring to, or over in Europe, the various top leagues of football and the Rugby League. Women are allowed out of the closet. It is no big deal to us guys to watch a woman playing Tennis and know she is out of the closet. Martina Navratilova has been one of the most popular tennis players male or female for years, but in the big four of North American sports, the only guys who come out are the bit players and only AFTER they retire.
An Umpire in MLB came out of the closet and found himself out of a job. Dave Pallone's book on his story is what has facinated me in how society deals with it, or rather doesn't deal with it.
Langdale Forest
26th December 2009, 20:46
He's a BALDIE!
GridGirl
27th December 2009, 10:06
How does the above post add to thread? Please grow up.
Mark in Oshawa
28th December 2009, 00:49
How does the above post add to thread? Please grow up.
he was just pointing out the obvious...we can move along..or not..lol.
anthonyvop
28th December 2009, 01:48
An Umpire in MLB came out of the closet and found himself out of a job. Dave Pallone's book on his story is what has facinated me in how society deals with it, or rather doesn't deal with it.
Pallone was fired because he was a crappy umpire and the other umpires hated him because they considered him a scab. He just pushed his Homosexuality as the reason to sell books
Personally I could care less about a persons sexuality. It is only Idiots, bothe Gay and straight, who make a big deal of it.
Mark in Oshawa
28th December 2009, 02:12
Pallone was fired because he was a crappy umpire and the other umpires hated him because they considered him a scab. He just pushed his Homosexuality as the reason to sell books
Personally I could care less about a persons sexuality. It is only Idiots, bothe Gay and straight, who make a big deal of it.
Who said he was a crappy umpire? What makes a crappy umpire? Does MLB produce a chart of their best umpires? You would'nt know if he was fired because he was gay or not, and neither would I, but it seems funny to me the guy stayed in the majors for quite sometime, and umpired in the World Series when it was based on merit, and then gets canned the year he comes out of the closet. AS for him selling books based on his homosexuality, maybe so, but there is no point writing a book that doesn't have something to say. Read the book....then tell me he was just a crap umpire. The guy was going it for a while at that level. Then tell me how he all the sudden sucks the second he comes out.....it is BS, and while I wont be marching in a parade any time soon, I am a big fan of backing people getting screwed over by authority based on BS reasons.
Oh ...if that makes me an Idiot, so be it...because you calling me an idiot isn't going to have me lying awake at night. There are times Tony where I have defended the principles you have espoused, but you just have to actually think instead ramming that knee up in a sudden jerk. Idealogues with no thought behind their hidebound opinion tend to run out of credability.
Malbec
28th December 2009, 20:27
Mark earlier on you said that you thought motorsports was above homophobia but I don't think thats true. There's one leading MotoGP rider who is gay yet his sexuality isn't mentioned by anyone. The MotoGP organisers don't want it mentioned, the sponsors don't want it mentioned and he doesn't want it known about. Why? Because whilst he may not want it known for personal reasons the sponsors and organisers believe that having a gay top rider will bring negative press and lower the value of the sport. The press suppresses the info for the same reason.
None of that would have happened if the sponsors, organisers and press who market the sport had that much faith in the lack of homophobia of the fans.
Daniel
28th December 2009, 21:36
may i ask who?
Malbec
29th December 2009, 00:09
may i ask who?
you may ;)
Daniel
29th December 2009, 00:13
you may ;)
But? :p
Eki
29th December 2009, 09:07
But? :p
He may not answer. Don't ask, don't tell.
Mark in Oshawa
29th December 2009, 17:06
Mark earlier on you said that you thought motorsports was above homophobia but I don't think thats true. There's one leading MotoGP rider who is gay yet his sexuality isn't mentioned by anyone. The MotoGP organisers don't want it mentioned, the sponsors don't want it mentioned and he doesn't want it known about. Why? Because whilst he may not want it known for personal reasons the sponsors and organisers believe that having a gay top rider will bring negative press and lower the value of the sport. The press suppresses the info for the same reason.
None of that would have happened if the sponsors, organisers and press who market the sport had that much faith in the lack of homophobia of the fans.
Well Dylan, since HE wont come out, we cannot really say whether it is true suppression by the authorties in the sport, or he is just not wanting to make a fuss. I may buy there is an institutional fear of this, but you must grasp most fans just are there to watch the racing. I could really care less about the sexual preferences of the guys on the bikes. I think the press and authorities refuse to give the fans in the stands credit.
Even tho if they are more bigotted than I think, would they stop coming out to watch if one of the top riders was gay? Would someone say "screw Moto GP, they have a fairey riding a Honda?" I doubt it.
I think by giving people the benefit of the doubt for intelligence, you might be surprised. We ASSUME what we fear, and when it doesn't work out that way, we wonder why we assumed things. We ASSUME the MotoGP crowds would stop going or buying merchandise, but is that really the case? No one will know if it doesn't change. That said, the rider in question isn't coming out in a public fashion, so it isn't MotoGP's job to out him either.....
Malbec
29th December 2009, 23:30
We ASSUME the MotoGP crowds would stop going or buying merchandise, but is that really the case? No one will know if it doesn't change. That said, the rider in question isn't coming out in a public fashion, so it isn't MotoGP's job to out him either.....
That is true but I wonder, if being gay is so openly acceptable, why is it that I can't think of a single driver currently active at a high level who has felt comfortable enough to come out?
Sometimes the fear of the sponsors etc has a legitimate basis, although we might be talking about fear of homophobia in particular markets rather than all of them.
Mark in Oshawa
29th December 2009, 23:40
That is true but I wonder, if being gay is so openly acceptable, why is it that I can't think of a single driver currently active at a high level who has felt comfortable enough to come out?
Sometimes the fear of the sponsors etc has a legitimate basis, although we might be talking about fear of homophobia in particular markets rather than all of them.
You are assuming that in the 20 odd f1 drivers, there is a gay? How about in the top 100 or so stock drivers in the 3 levels of NASCAR? The fact is Dylan, neither form of racing (being the two most popular forms of racing in the two sphere's of the motorsport in the world) likely HAS a gay participant.
The odds are, there isn't. It is said gays are 2 to 3 % of the population. That would dictate that 2 to 3% of race drivers would be gay, but the reality is in a group with type A carnivores that is the top level's of racing, finding an in the closet gay at that level just isn't likely. I think we will seen an openly gay athlete come out active in a sport where the team aspect might help. Football, hockey, rugby, baseball and the like. Until that happens, I don't forsee any gays making headway in sports where they think they will face discrmination.
BeansBeansBeans
29th December 2009, 23:53
I work with a gay former karting champion. He is out, proud and camp as Christmas, plus he knows more about cars than me.
Malbec
29th December 2009, 23:56
You are assuming that in the 20 odd f1 drivers, there is a gay? How about in the top 100 or so stock drivers in the 3 levels of NASCAR? The fact is Dylan, neither form of racing (being the two most popular forms of racing in the two sphere's of the motorsport in the world) likely HAS a gay participant.
The odds are, there isn't. It is said gays are 2 to 3 % of the population. That would dictate that 2 to 3% of race drivers would be gay, but the reality is in a group with type A carnivores that is the top level's of racing, finding an in the closet gay at that level just isn't likely. I think we will seen an openly gay athlete come out active in a sport where the team aspect might help. Football, hockey, rugby, baseball and the like. Until that happens, I don't forsee any gays making headway in sports where they think they will face discrmination.
There's more to motorsport than NASCAR and F1. Lets include WRC, IRL/CART, tell you what, lets include every single type of motorsport you can reasonably access on TV. On top of that, lets include past drivers (yes I know we're arguing that society has become less homophobic so past drivers don't count as much). Can you name a single openly gay driver? I'm guessing that we're looking at several hundred drivers at this point and some of them ought to be gay.
Doesn't that indicate a culture of non-permissiveness?
As for team sports you may be right and you may be wrong. Football is certainly homophobic if you scratch the surface, more openly so than motorsports. The only thing making it more likely that there'll be an openly gay team sports player is the fact that there are so many players around, statistically it becomes more likely that one of them will have the guts to come out in public.
I don't have as much faith in the tolerance of gay players/sportsmen as you do I'm afraid. Perhaps in particular countries (or parts of countries) such as the west and east coasts of the US or Northern Europe fans may not have a problem, but go outside those areas including many parts of Europe and the attitude towards gays is hardly accepting.
AJP
30th December 2009, 00:01
Ian Roberts was a professional Rugby League player in Australia.
Played for Australia and also NSW in the State of Origin.
Probably one of the toughest players out there and was ranked in the top 25 NSW players of all time.
He was fully supported by some of the games most well known players.
BeansBeansBeans
30th December 2009, 00:03
That would dictate that 2 to 3% of race drivers would be gay, but the reality is in a group with type A carnivores that is the top level's of racing, finding an in the closet gay at that level just isn't likely.
If there are gay men in rugby union there can be gay men in motorsports.
Mark in Oshawa
30th December 2009, 01:12
There's more to motorsport than NASCAR and F1. Lets include WRC, IRL/CART, tell you what, lets include every single type of motorsport you can reasonably access on TV. On top of that, lets include past drivers (yes I know we're arguing that society has become less homophobic so past drivers don't count as much). Can you name a single openly gay driver? I'm guessing that we're looking at several hundred drivers at this point and some of them ought to be gay.
Doesn't that indicate a culture of non-permissiveness?
As for team sports you may be right and you may be wrong. Football is certainly homophobic if you scratch the surface, more openly so than motorsports. The only thing making it more likely that there'll be an openly gay team sports player is the fact that there are so many players around, statistically it becomes more likely that one of them will have the guts to come out in public.
I don't have as much faith in the tolerance of gay players/sportsmen as you do I'm afraid. Perhaps in particular countries (or parts of countries) such as the west and east coasts of the US or Northern Europe fans may not have a problem, but go outside those areas including many parts of Europe and the attitude towards gays is hardly accepting.
I am going to hesitate to state that there no gays in motorports. At the top level, I am going to say probably there isn't. Why? Simple, the presumed pressure (and it is real likely I admit) that a gay would face at that level would stop them from going to that level in case they were outed. I have faith in the general level of tolerance society has given this topic in the last 10 years.
I am also thinking if you take all the drivers at a professional level, that would maybe be 700 to 1000 in total. That is all forms of pro racing, f1,IRL, NASCAR, WRC, ALMS, LeMans, Japanese GT, and all their support series. So out of that 1000, in theory there is 20 to 30 gays based on the 2 to 3% model. Do you really think there is that many? I don't. It isn't that I am against it, nor am I naive, but I think motorsports has been hostile in the past to the idea, and that in itself is a deterrent. Also, lets face the reality that sports still is a macho enterprise, so the overall number of gays in professional sport on the male side is less than that 2%. Still doesn't mean I can be wrong, and I think the societal change towards the whole idea of it has changed so radically in the last 20 years.
That was the point of my thread. I find that my personal thoughts on the topic mirrored the feeling it couldn't happen, but I am not so sure after hearing the story of Brendan Burke. I think we are on the cusp of that barrier coming down. It would be one of the last mental barriers society has to tear down really.
Brown, Jon Brow
30th December 2009, 23:53
What about Nelson Piquet Junior? Or was that just rumours? :dozey:
Malbec
31st December 2009, 02:24
Also, lets face the reality that sports still is a macho enterprise, so the overall number of gays in professional sport on the male side is less than that 2%. Still doesn't mean I can be wrong, and I think the societal change towards the whole idea of it has changed so radically in the last 20 years.
That was the point of my thread. I find that my personal thoughts on the topic mirrored the feeling it couldn't happen, but I am not so sure after hearing the story of Brendan Burke. I think we are on the cusp of that barrier coming down. It would be one of the last mental barriers society has to tear down really.
I don't agree that gays don't go for macho things, there are plenty of gay investment bankers and traders who live on testosterone and type-A personalities. As you said yourself there doesn't seem to be a gay 'type' of personality. I doubt very much that there are no gay racedrivers for instance, and rumours have gone round about drivers like Ralf for instance.
I agree with you, motorsports has had a non-permissive attitude towards gays in the past and that is changing but really I think its going to be a long time before someone comes out while they are still mid-career. I'm thinking decades.
Easy Drifter
31st December 2009, 03:43
As most of you know Mark in Oshawa and I agree on most things.
Here I do not! I have no doubt there are 'gay' (I hate that word) drivers and crewmen and women in racing. It is a given considering the proportion in the population.
Coming 'out' is another matter.
It was generally considered that Raymond Mays (BRM) was but no proof.
On the distaff side Lella Lombardi was generally considered, to use a politically incorrect word, bent.
I do not know of driver in racing who has said they are but really who cares?
We have one poster in these forums who openly admits his/her sexual preferances are different. So what. Their opinions are as valid as anyones.
To me this should be an non issue!
Eki
31st December 2009, 09:07
What about Nelson Piquet Junior? Or was that just rumours? :dozey:
Could have been a revenge, because Nelson Piquet Senior once claimed that Ayrton Senna was gay.
Langdale Forest
31st December 2009, 09:33
That has been said about almost everyone
wedge
31st December 2009, 14:03
Justin Bell seems rather camp. Out of curiosity is he, isn't he?! :D
dK4sf36Bss4
Mark in Oshawa
31st December 2009, 14:47
Maybe so on it being more behind than I think. I am just the optimist that the world changed the corner in the last few years....
I am not naive enough to not think there are gays in the sport on some levels, but I am going to say I think the driver population will be likely a little less likely.....just a hunch.
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