2010 Constructors' Predictions - just a bit of fun

[woody2goody]

I thought we should do some predicting now, mostly so we can look back in a year's time and see how daft some of them are :D

List the teams in the order you think they will finish in in the 2010 Constructors' Championship:

Here goes:

1. Ferrari
2. McLaren
3. Brawn
4. Red Bull
5. (BMW) Sauber*
6. Renault
7. Williams
8. 'Toyota'*
9. Force India
10. Toro Rosso
11. Lotus
12. Campos
13. USF1
14. Manor

[harvick#1]

1. Red Bull
2. Ferrari
3. McLaren
4. Brawn
5. Sauber
6. Williams
7. Renault
8. Force India
9. Toro Rosso
10. Lotus
11. USF1
12. Campos
13. Manor


If Toyota stays, I'll put them 7th and drop everyone

[F1boat]

In my opinion it is very early to predict as we don't know who will drive where. However to me is seems that McLaren-Mercedes will have the fastest car. I think that Ferrari will be good, but tensions between Alonso and Massa will be high. Brawn GP will be solid, but not like this year. Red Bull IMO are late with development and will fade. Williams will be slightly better than this year as Rubens is good in setup and the Hulk seems to be talented.

So:
1 McLaren-Mercedes
2 Ferrari
3 Brawn GP
4 Red Bull
5 Williams F1

I dunno about the rest.

[UltimateDanGTR]

Id go with;

1.Ferrari
2.Mclaren
3.Red Bull
4.Brawn
5.Renault
6.Williams
7.Force India
8.Qadbak/Sauber*
9.Toro Rosso
10.Lotus
11.Campos
12.Manor
13.USF1

*assuming qadbak/sauber are allowed to enter.

[CNR]

Toro Rosso may be a lot better not being built arout the Renault engine

[Nikki Katz]

Assuming that these are the teams and not more buy-outs / drop outs:

1. Ferrari
2. McLaren
3. Red Bull
4. Brawn
5. Sauber
6. Renault
7. Force India
8. Toro Rosso
9. Williams
10. Campos
11. Manor
12. Lotus
13. USF1

I don't see the Cosworths going well, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong. The top of the new teams is probably going to depend on who buys the Toyota chassis.

[Sonic]

Ok I think the refueling ban is going to have a big impact on the order and unlike others I think that because Cossie are getting to develop their engines all winter they may steal a jump.

So I'm going to be bold and put the order as;

Ferrari
Williams
Red Bull
McLaren
Renault
Brawn
Force India
Quadbank
Lotus
Torro Rosso
Campos
USF1
Manor

Now if you'll excuse me I'm late for my medication.

[maximilian]

I'll go out on a limb here, and claim that it'll turn out the redeveloped Cosworths will be a HUGE advantage next year, and it'll pan out like this:

1. Williams (Rubens will help Hulkenberg to the title in his usual #2 role) :D
2. Red Bull
3. Campos
4. Ferrari
5. McLaren
6. Lotus
7. Brawn
8. Sauber
9. Prodrive Aston Martin (purchased Renault)
10. Force India
11. USF1
12. Toro Rosso
13. Manor (the one new team we heard almost NOTHING about so far? If any of them doesn't make it, I think it will be Manor...)

You heard it here first :D

[UltimateDanGTR]

1. Mclaren

i hope you're right! :D

[Sonic]

I'll go out on a limb here, and claim that it'll turn out the redeveloped Cosworths will be a HUGE advantage next year, and it'll pan out like this:

1. Williams (Rubens will help Hulkenberg to the title in his usual #2 role) :D
2. Red Bull
3. Campos
4. Ferrari
5. McLaren
6. Lotus
7. Brawn
8. Sauber
9. Prodrive Aston Martin (purchased Renault)
10. Force India
11. USF1
12. Toro Rosso
13. Manor (the one new team we heard almost NOTHING about so far? If any of them doesn't make it, I think it will be Manor...)

You heard it here first :D

Ahhh, a fellow forumer who has forgotten to take his meds today! ;)

[F1boat]

I'll go out on a limb here, and claim that it'll turn out the redeveloped Cosworths will be a HUGE advantage next year, and it'll pan out like this:

1. Williams (Rubens will help Hulkenberg to the title in his usual #2 role) :D
2. Red Bull
3. Campos
4. Ferrari
5. McLaren
6. Lotus
7. Brawn
8. Sauber
9. Prodrive Aston Martin (purchased Renault)
10. Force India
11. USF1
12. Toro Rosso
13. Manor (the one new team we heard almost NOTHING about so far? If any of them doesn't make it, I think it will be Manor...)

You heard it here first :D

Should the cossies start with big advantage, FIA will think of something. Believe it!

[maximilian]

Ahhh, a fellow forumer who has forgotten to take his meds today! ;)
I just figured it's boring to come up with pretty much the same lists across the board. You could have said the same thing about predicting Brawn to be double world champions last year! ;)

[Sonic]

Indeed. My predictions also put Williams in the thick of it. Fingers crossed!

[DazzlaF1]

My Prediction

1. McLaren
2. Brawn
3. Ferrari
4. Red Bull
5. Williams
6. Renault
7. Force India
8. Lotus
9. Campos Meta
10. Qadbak / Sauber
11. Manor
12. Toro Rosso
13. USF1 (I think they will be the only team to fail to score a point)

[jens]

Umm... Well, a year ago everyone completely failed in their predictions, so it's wise to be careful. :D I think the reasons for that were that the effect of the new rules was kinda unclear (like KERS, which BMW-Sauber was expected to master, but flopped instead) and also the changes in key-personnel (like at Honda) may have gone a bit unnoticed. But let's take a new look and see, how wrong is this going to be. :D

Right now I think I have most belief in McLaren and Red Bull in short-term future.

A year ago I thought McLaren is the biggest favourite as well, but got that one completely wrong. Their main problem is aerodynamics, which has changed dramatically for this year and brought out their weakness (Mac's aero has seemingly been inferior to other car's strengths since 2006 at least - after the loss of Newey). However, 2010 changes will be more related to other areas, like mechanical grip and general car (weight) balance, which McLaren should be top-notch at, while they have seemingly managed to adapt to aero regulations late in the 2009 season. The main problematic issue McLaren might face is the loss of KERS, as they have designed their 2009 car pretty much around it. Secondly their engine might be downgraded after FIA's attempts to "equalize" the field, so that's a bit unclear factor as well.

Red Bull has managed to develop nicely all-season and has the best aerodynamics. The loss of Willis is the main thing that might hurt them, but he was mostly responsible for reliability. So I think RBR should be very fast, but could be unreliable. Unlike many others, the team has stability and has finally reached top-class level after years of a build-up phase. They also didn't have any advantage for 2009, like long development time (like BMW/Honda) or DD-diffuser. I'm positive about the future. Also Renault engine is arguably quite economical, which is a clear plus for next season.

I am a bit more sceptical about Ferrari. Probably they will be stronger in 2010, but the team has had some serious reshuffling this year even if it has gone a bit unnoticed. Aero-guru John Iley has been sacked (a bit premature IMO, because in 07-08 Ferrari had excellent aero), Simon has been replaced by Marmorini in engine department, Baldissieri has gone to another department, etc. To me it seems that the actions of Ferrari management are too much based on emotions, which destabilizes the team. But at least Aldo Costa will stay on and the design team is probably capable of creating a relatively competitive car. Like McLaren, they also have to successfully adapt to a non-KERS car.

I think the second half of the 2009 season showed, where Brawn-Mercedes is more realistically going to position next year - minor point positions will be more common. They don't have that massive time advantage again to develop the car and they have lost chief designer Zander, although arguably it has been some other (unknown for wider audience) guy, who has come up with some excellent ideas (like double-diffuser). Brawn also had only a fraction of the funding in 2009 compared to what they had in 2008 to develop this year's car. Mercedes-Brawn might generally be a serious force in the next decade, but still I feel next year is going to be a slight "down-to-earth" period, "second season syndrome" as they go through stabilization to build up successful future for 2011 and beyond.

Renault is a bit of a mystery. A lot of factors count against them on paper - loss of Briatore/Symonds (someone could add Alonso), hence lack of stability in leadership, loss in sponsors and hence possible lack of funds. At least the design team has remained the same. However, their 2009 car had a rather radical look and I think this is partly why they cocked up - maybe they have learnt from those mistakes and are designing a more "conservative" one for 2010. They were also messing with KERS. All in all I think they might surprise in the beginning of 2010, but in the long run all those scandals and changes could have at least some kind of an effect.

Qadbak/Sauber is a team I'm quite positive about. In the last 3 races of 2009 they were a Top3 team in WCC! I think I once mentioned that if BMW had continued in 2010, they could have a 07-08-style season again as they have pretty much risen back to their past good form late-09. Like Renault, the change of ownership and funding might have a negative effect in the long run, but initially - in the beginning of 2010 - they could be good if they manage to adapt their car to Ferrari engines efficiently like Brawn did to Mercedes.

Williams has been a consistent midfielder for several years already. Cosworth engine is an unknown quantity, which makes predicting more difficult. Cossie's advantage is that they can develop the engine until March, while others are in a "freeze". If Cosworth manages to gain superiority over others like MB did in 2009, we could see some surprising results (like the performance of Brawn/Force India has been stunning in 09), but overall I see another typical midfield season for the legendary team. 2009 was their change to shine with radical rule changes and while the car was actually quite decent, it was never really a front-runner. To me it looks like since 2005 Williams has been missing something in the design team after Sam Michael took over the role as chief designer.

Force India has been really good in the second half of 2009, even if their car is still inconsistent (struggling on street circuits). As we have seen a lot of surprises in 2009, then FI could be the team, who could be a surprise of 2010, because VJM02 has been almost a frontrunner on some circuits in late-09 and if only they could capitalize and build on it...

STR - probably will adapt to RBR chassis better next year with less rule changes and could be in midfield more often. But still hard to put them anywhere higher than 9th.

Lotus - IMO the most serious among the new teams. Malaysian government + Petronas + Proton + Gascoyne + ex-Bentley factory - such list of names is quite impressive on paper. While I suspect Campos/Manor could turn out to be more like the case of Simtek/Pacific (nowhere at the back, struggling with funds, disappear after being in oblivion for a short time), Lotus could be closer to the version of Stewart of actually being a serious team in F1 if all the mentioned participants in the project have motivation to stay together.

All in all:
1-2 Red Bull / McLaren
3 Ferrari
4 Mercedes (Brawn)
5-6 Renault / Qadbak
7-8 Williams / Force India
9 STR
10 Lotus
11-12 Campos / Manor
USF1 won't participate

WDC battle: Hamilton vs Vettel.

[V12]

STR - probably will adapt to RBR chassis better next year with less rule changes and could be in midfield more often. But still hard to put them anywhere higher than 9th.

No they won't - there won't be any adapting...Toro Rosso have to build their own car out of the old Minardi facilities starting next year. My predictions:

1. Ferrari
2. McLaren
3. Red Bull
4. Mercedes
5. Renault
6. Williams
7. Force India
8. Sauber*
9. Lotus
10. Toro Rosso
11. Manor
12. Campos
13. USF1

Obviously if Sauber/Quad-whatever doesn't happen, move the rest of 'em all up one.

And I don't think the Cosworth will either be a help or a hindrance next year (unfortunately), and if it is then it will get evened up pretty soon. F1 = NA$CAR these days :down: :(

[jens]

No they won't - there won't be any adapting...Toro Rosso have to build their own car out of the old Minardi facilities starting next year.


Sure? I haven't heard much about that, but if this is the case, I may drop them behind at least Lotus. Has STR got workforce/etc to really construct a chassis, which they haven't done for many years? Is there any information about the design progress? Or will they use RBR design schemes, just build their car in their own factory? :p :

[christophulus]

Alright, I'll give it a go:

1. McLaren - right back on form next year
2. Ferrari
3. Mercedes
4. Red Bull
5. Williams
6. Renault
7. Toro Rosso
8. Manor/Virgin
9. Force India
10. Qadbak Sauber*
=. Lotus
=. USF1
=. Campos

Basically I think McLaren and Ferrari will be the pace setters again after a miserable 2009. MercBrawn and Red Bull will be OK and I reckon Williams might finally live up to (my) expectations.

As for the new teams.. I've gone for Manor highest because their revolutionary CFD approach might just work, and they've got decent backing (as have the rest). As for the other newbies, Sauber included, I really can't see them getting any points on the board. It'd take a mixed up race, rain etc, at even then they'll be scrapping for 8th.

Or I could be totally wrong. It's fun to guess though :)