How well will your country climb out of the recession?

[Mark in Oshawa]

An Article in the most recent MacLean's Magazine by Jason Kirby entitled''Our big Chance'' stated that Canada will ride out of the recession easily powered by a strong banking system, natural resource based industry and a better tax structure. The fact the government is in the red now is a temporary measure and apparently someone in Ottawa wasn't napping the last decade or so while we were in the black so we are not going down a fiscal toilet apparently.

I wont buy the premise entirely, 80% of our trade is with the US, and they are NOT climbing out any recession, Obama is still trying to figure out how to stop the elevator car from slamming into the floor. But nevertheless, I am optmisitic my part of the world is doing alright. I do know this much. We live in a world economy, but I am pretty sure most countries didn't have 21% of their mortgages going to subprime loans to people who had nothing to lose, so I figure the rest of the world will move on as always.

How was your nation effected and are they getting out any time soon?

[Mark in Oshawa]

BTW...I cant find an online link to the article in question, I subscribe to the actual magazine but it was on page 31 of the August 31/2009 issue (that being the date the NEXT one comes out I guess) If you guys find it online, you found something I didn't....I am thinking they don't post his most recent article online until the next edition comes out....

[DexDexter]

Finland is doing pretty well, the forest industry is in trouble but other than that we seem to be in ok shape because the unemployment rate hasn't gone up that much compared to our home-grown recession of the early 90's. Many other EU countries, especially Spain are in much worse shape. Our banks are also in good shape. One thing I like about the recession is the weak dollar. I went to NYC a couple of months ago and things were generally cheap with euro being so strong. :)

[Mark in Oshawa]

Finland is doing pretty well, the forest industry is in trouble but other than that we seem to be in ok shape because the unemployment rate hasn't gone up that much compared to our home-grown recession of the early 90's. Many other EU countries, especially Spain are in much worse shape. Our banks are also in good shape. One thing I like about the recession is the weak dollar. I went to NYC a couple of months ago and things were generally cheap with euro being so strong. :)

Dex, with Obama printing more dollars to try to kill the debt he is running up, look for the US dollar to stay down.

THAT is bad for Canada, we have used our lower dollar to take advantage and our businesses in exporting mainly to the US have been able to thrive. If their dollar drops, and our economy stays strong, it will hurt our chances. We are done in by the US, in that if they are booming, we boom, and if they drive their economy off the road, we have to fight to stay out of the ditch with them.

[Camelopard]

Recession, what recession?

[steve_spackman]

From what ive heard the UK is slowly coming round....Not too sure where its been but hey....

[Rollo]

Recession, what recession?

Exactly. Australia never went into one, because of the fact that the government through reasonably prudent planning was able to send through a stimulus package and keep monies circulating, whilst underlying regulations about mortgages mean that the sub-prime mortgage market in Australia doesn't exist.

Thar aint no stinkin' recession here in Oz

[pino]

We have Berlusconi...so no hopes for us :p :

[Jag_Warrior]

We have Berlusconi...so no hopes for us :p :

But he's so much fun, did you guys even know you had financial problems?

[lcd]

In Greece, unlike the weather , which Is mostly sunny, In economy ,
there are heavy clouds...
It's not only this recession thing; Greek goverments have been making a mess since I could remember (!) , and now because of the crisis, all those problems have been enlarged... I really can't see some kind of light In the end of the tunnel;greeks wish things just won't get worse-nothing seems to work out fine ( especially state enterprises )...
At least we still have the sunny weather!

[Tomi]

We have Berlusconi...so no hopes for us :p :

Lol paisa, very funny.

[pino]

But he's so much fun, did you guys even know you had financial problems?

Financial problems ? sorry but these words don't exsist in our dictionary :p :

[Tomi]

One thing I like about the recession is the weak dollar. I went to NYC a couple of months ago and things were generally cheap with euro being so strong. :)

Now when its recession it would be good at the same replace the Us$ with somekind of a basket currency, where the weight of Us$ would be small, printing money like us is doing is very shortsight currency policy, and hurts much healthy economies as well.

[Donney]

Spain will climb out eventually in a blaze of brick dust...

[Mark in Oshawa]

Now when its recession it would be good at the same replace the Us$ with somekind of a basket currency, where the weight of Us$ would be small, printing money like us is doing is very shortsight currency policy, and hurts much healthy economies as well.

IT is short sighted, but Obama has been all about big images and shorted sighted solutions to large problems so far. Bush and the Democratic Congress made this mess, and Obama is just making it worse.

Rollo, sounds like the Aussies did what the Canadian gov'ts did, but unlike you guys, we were not far away from the US economy to not get a little blood on us. Our manufacturing sector took a pretty good shot. The Province of Ontario in particular, since we have a provincial premier who is clueless on economics, and a lot of auto industry that was/is tied to the big 3 automakers. Not been great for sure, BUT our economy is pretty sound and the banks are being held up around the world as stable and note worthy.

So it isn't the great depression here at all.....

Actually, not even in the states. Their unemployment rate hasn't hit 10% nationally. In the 30's, it was over 20% for YEARS.....

[Tomi]

IT is short sighted, but Obama has been all about big images and shorted sighted solutions to large problems so far. Bush and the Democratic Congress made this mess, and Obama is just making it worse.

I dont think it has much to do with Obama, it's the irrispossible monetary policy in general, soon as they hit problems, instead of face the problems they start to grease the print machines, it would be ok and who would care as long as the trading would be in some other currency than the us yoyo.

[Storm]

We have not been affected too badly, although the Manufacturing and IT/Software industry has been hit fairly hard (and they got ready-made excuses to cut the flab so to speak).

Apparently our government's long term socialistic tendencies and rigid banking laws/system have helped not put all our eggs in the American basket and hence we seem to be doing okay.

[chuck34]

In the US it really all depends on what Obama and Congress do. If they continue down the print money now/worry about it later/tax capital to death path they've been on. It'll get much worse before it ever even thinks about getting better. Some states [like Indiana :-)] have good state governments, and that helps. But it's hard to be on the right path when everyone around you is trying to suck you down with them.

So I guess my answer is, depends on what happens. Good answer eh?

[555-04Q2]

I still dont understand the whole world recession problem.

Personally I am better off today than I was last year. I have increased my staff numbers at work by just over 20% this year, we are having a record trading year in 2009 on the back of another huge record year in 2008. In fact, my company cant cope with the orders we have and we have work until well into 2010 now. WTF is going on out there :?:

[lcd]

I still dont understand the whole world recession problem....WTF is going on out there :?:

I believe each one experiences recession differently!

I mean, the whole thing starts from the Individual; If someone In order to have
a life which his financial situation doesn't allow, starts loaning from banks all the time,
some day he will have a huge problem!
And this has been happening In a high level the last 10 years, so I dare to say we all -In a way -
have contributed In this problematic economy of ourselves/business/society/country...

Still, I happen to know many Individuals or businessmen, who were very carefully Investing/spending money the last years, and this called recession thing, has slightly harmed them...

[Jag_Warrior]

Bush and the Democratic Congress made this mess, and Obama is just making it worse.

You're giving Alan Greenspan and the Fed a huge pass. And just to point out a fact: both Greenspan and Bernanke are Republicans. The Fed determines monetary policy and has the largest hand in banking regulation. The credit bubble we have now actually started to be formed in the early 90's and continued until the bubble burst last year. Cheap, easy money and lax regulation got us to where we are, IMO. The fiscal policies of Clinton and Bush didn't helped, but that's not what caused it. And before anyone brings up the myth about how subprimes came to be, a recent study has found that roughly 60% of subprime originations since 2005 (I believe) should/could have been originated as primes (with better terms). But a mortgage bank or broker could make up to 500% more in fees on a subprime vs a prime, so... :dozey:

And the housing bubble that has popped is about to be followed by a commercial real estate bubble that's getting ready to pop.


Reuters:
Commercial real estate has been hampered by the lack of access to credit. In a step to boost credit to the $6 trillion market, the Federal Reserve extended its Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) to mid-2010 this week.
http://www.reuters.com/article/economicNews/idUSN1946806120090819

From what I've read, there's over $2 trillion in outstanding commercial real estate loans that are coming due in the next 4 years. And the FDIC is bracing for another round of bank failures when/if these loans can't be renegotiated or refinanced. Only about half of what came due this year could be refinanced - and that's near an historical low. So get ready for Round 2 of the banking crisis.



So it isn't the great depression here at all.....

True. In the Great Depression we had massive deflation. That's what global central banks have worked to avoid this time around. For the most part, they've been successful.



Actually, not even in the states. Their unemployment rate hasn't hit 10% nationally. In the 30's, it was over 20% for YEARS.....

The unemployment rate is measured differently now than it was in the 20's and 30's. Even many conservative economists are saying that the (true) unemployment rate is somewhere closer to 20% now.

http://blogs.moneycentral.msn.com/topstocks/archive/2009/07/06/true-unemployment-rate-already-at-20.aspx

[Jag_Warrior]

Oh, BTW... my wild azz guess on how we're going to come out of this recession: I'll agree with the eggheads who have PhD's in Econ and say that it'll be a jobless recovery that'll begin in the 3rd quarter of '09 (pretty much now) through the middle of 2010 before employment picks back up.

[schmenke]

..., BUT our economy is pretty sound and the banks are being held up around the world as stable and note worthy.

So it isn't the great depression here at all.....

Mark, like many Canadians, I think you have an overly optimistic view of our recession. This country is far worse off than most people think.
In recent years the oil and gas industry has been the major contributor to Canada's success, but this sector has now taken a beating. There has been billions of dollars in capital investment recently cancelled by oil & gas investors in this country, particularily in Alberta, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador.

The 2009 provincial government defecit for Alberta alone is close to $900M, with projections for next year of $7B.

Things are goint to get far worse for this country before the get better.

[lcd]

Premature elections announced In Greece, so many hope some things may change... (Though I seriously doubt It! ) http://www.motorsportforums.com/forums/images/icons/hmph.gif

[jimakos]

Premature elections announced In Greece, so many hope some things may change... (Though I seriously doubt It! ) http://www.motorsportforums.com/forums/images/icons/hmph.gif

Total agree!
Nothing is going to change...

[jimakos]

To the Greeks:

Do you believe that a change of goverment can solve the problem?
Or at least make things better for the country?

[Roamy]

I think we will have a secondary stall that will drive unemployment over 12%. Our Janvanburpa Pres will be the biggest failure since Jimmy Carter and we can't fix anything before 2010 elections so just be prepared for turmoil and chaos from this group of baffoons running our country.

[Mark in Oshawa]

Mark, like many Canadians, I think you have an overly optimistic view of our recession. This country is far worse off than most people think.
In recent years the oil and gas industry has been the major contributor to Canada's success, but this sector has now taken a beating. There has been billions of dollars in capital investment recently cancelled by oil & gas investors in this country, particularily in Alberta, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador.

The 2009 provincial government defecit for Alberta alone is close to $900M, with projections for next year of $7B.

Things are goint to get far worse for this country before the get better.

May I remind you my hometown lost the GM Truck plant and 3600 jobs. That said, most Canadians are optimistic because most of them still hold their jobs. Yes Alberta is taking it in the shorts, but put the price of oil up 10 dollars a barrel tomorrow and have it stay there and half those jobs come back. Alberta has lived with this boom/bust thing for years.

This country will bounce back because we have been steady in how the banks have not gotten into the trouble their cousins in the south did, they have not been given massive amounts of government regulation telling them how to loan money to people who cannot afford it; and our economy still is based on resources out of the ground. When the world runs low, they come to Canada.

We have to just ride it out. I am busier in the last two months than I had been for a year almost. Since I am in the profession that is essentially the red blood cells of the North American economy, I am seeing my personal increase in work as a sign things are starting to pickup. I do think we have bottomed out.....

[Mark in Oshawa]

Oh yes... Schmenke, the Alberta gov't is also in deficit because they keep spending money they cannot reliably count on to fund programs that they keep introducing to keep out the libreal and NDP hoards...lol, who would spend the same money they dont'have to give people programs they didn't need until some jerk from the government told them they are entitled to it. The government in the red isn't always a sign of economic health....

[F1boat]

I am cautiously optimistic. Till summer, the ruling coalition between former communists and pseudo liberals was stealing like crazy. Now we have a center-right and populist party as rulers, but they started very well, so hopefully things will become better.

[Mark in Oshawa]

I am cautiously optimistic. Till summer, the ruling coalition between former communists and pseudo liberals was stealing like crazy. Now we have a center-right and populist party as rulers, but they started very well, so hopefully things will become better.

Psuedolibs? They are all over in the west. Glad to see they are the same no matter where you find them.