New top teams - temporary or permanent phenomenon?

[jens]

I thought we could have a nice discussion about this matter.

Surprises have been expected from 2009, but they have been far greater than anyone would have ever thought! Teams like Brawn GP (9th in WCC in 2008), Red Bull (7) and Toyota (5) are at the top, while last year's Top4 (McLaren, Ferrari, BMW, Renault) are all more or less struggling.

What are your conclusions of this new pecking order and how persistent do you reckon it to be? Have the "new top teams" 'fluked' to the front and will be thrown backwards soon? Is there any reason to think that former status quo with McLaren and Ferrari winning will return? Is 2009 the only year in the limelight for new front-runners or is their current success simply a result of a long development and transformation process, which is finally showing its rightful results?

[F1boat]

I think that Brawn GP and Red Bull can stay on top this year, but not next. Sooner or later McLaren will be back on top, Renault maybe as well. I dunno about Ferrari, they will strike back, but it is difficult to say when. BMW for me are not a top team.

[CNR]

i think that the test ban may have slowed the teams from catching up with other teams

[Sonic]

I'd like to think we are going from an era of 'the big 4' to an era of 'the big 7'. RBR, toyota and honda needed the rule change to level the playing field and catch up, but now they are there I can't see all of them suddenly going backwards. The former big 4 will catch up sooner or later and whne they do we could see a different winner each weekend.

Or is my head in the clouds?

[jens]

Well, I believe the days, when McLaren and Ferrari mopped the floor with others, are over. From now on they have to take others into account too.

I don't personally see a reason, why shouldn't that new Top3 stay as a long-term challengers. Honda hired a lot of specialists back in 2007 and now the results are showing. Red Bull in the colours of STR was already a Top3 car at times already at the end of 2008. And despite the popular attitude to downplay Toyota, they continue to consistently improve, having found proper methods and rhythm to unveil their undoubted potential. There is no reason, why they shouldn't be good in 2010 again (well, except if Brawn happens to face financial problems). All the teams have in recent years transformed, built up a team to really start shooting with new regulations.

Among the "former leaders" I'm pretty sure McLaren will be back, they are already improving and I still think they are the most complete team on the grid. But that doesn't make them invulnerable. Ferrari isn't quite the same as in Team MS era. I think that the design team is capable of constructing more competitive cars than the current F60 though, but there is nothing to suggest they should be superior to current Top3. I have my doubts about Renault and BMW, the teams are surely professional and could be doing better, but I don't see them constructing a car to beat. Well, in a way the doubts about Ren & Bmw remind the doubts about Japanese car giants recently, so in a similar way maybe some changes in Renault and BMW are needed too to make a breakthrough. But that's just a guess. Like Ferrari, who I suppose also needs changes.

[Mark]

Remember of course that things change. Ferrari have only recently been a very top team, not so long ago they were 4th at best. Similarly McLaren in the early 1990's was pretty shocking.

At the same time Williams was busy winning everything and they are a mid-pack team now.

[CNR]

you could say that Ferrari was done in 2005 http://www.formula1.com/results/team/2005/2885.html
the only win was a joke
2006 back to 2nd

[jens]

you could say that Ferrari was done in 2005 http://www.formula1.com/results/team/2005/2885.html
the only win was a joke
2006 back to 2nd

I'd say Bridgestone was done in 2005. :) If tyre changes had been allowed in 2005, I guess Ferrari would have been a lot better - maybe not a champion, but that's impossible to tell.

[Sonic]

Indeed - ferrari in 2005 had zero chance through no fault of their own. 2006, 2007, 2008 repressented the last of the super team era with just evolution of ideas in place for years. The new era has started badly but they'll come back (although with nowhere near the levels before).

[Valve Bounce]

It's a conspiracy, I tell ya!!

[UltimateDanGTR]

I believe brawn, Red Bull and Toyota will remain quite competitive for the years to come. Ferrari and Mclaren will probably return to the top, but as jens said the days when them two mopped the floor with others is probably gone. Im sure BMW will become competitive again, this should just turn out to be a bad year for them. I belive in terms of teams competitiveness, the future has never looked brighter.

ofcourse F1s future looks darker in many other ways, threatened British GP, possible most wins for champion, mclaren facing possible ban etc.

but hopefully the racing will be great, as it is now. then we can look foward in someways into a lovely F1 future, with possible (probably non-existent) new teams, but hey, hopefully the teams will see sense and all depart from F1 and bernie and the FIA and create their own formula................