The state of play.

[Ranger]

Hopefully Henrik will do a better analysis of this but this is how I see it after race 1: :p :

1. Brawn. Dominant here, Button seemed to just drive from Point A to B here with minimal effort. 3 tenths clear of anyone else. Pretty dominant.

2. Red Bull. Very surprised at their pace all weekend. Webber was damaged from turn 1 onwards but Seb was running a good pace all race. The fact that he did so without KERS and the diffuser makes me think this is quite a design from Newey.

=2. BMW. Kubica was on for a possible win and was nailing it in the final stint. Looked a wee bit shaky on soft tyres though.

4. Toyota. Consistent and good on both types of tyre. No KERS but were running a diffuser. Still one to watch for a win this year, finally.

=4. Williams. Very fast but undone by poor soft tire compound pace. I'll have to see later if that was simply setup or a trait of the car (or simply the driver).

6. Ferrari. Solid pace but unreliable. Case of the shenanigans happening here.

7. Renault. Pretty Anonymous today, Alonso seemed to grab 5th without major luck, seemed to be a solid drive.

8. McLaren. Good drive by Hamilton today, perhaps fortunate may mask the actual race pace of the car.

9. Force India. No comment.

=10. Toro Rosso. Lack of development time didn't stop them helping themselves to 3 points today, they wouldn't have done so without circumstance though.

[BDunnell]

1. Brawn. Dominant here, Button seemed to just drive from Point A to B here with minimal effort.

Very well put!



8. McLaren. Good drive by Hamilton today, perhaps fortunate may mask the actual race pace of the car.

McLaren I found interesting. Martin Brundle made the very good point in commentary that the car didn't actually look like a proper dog at all during the race — it seems to corner well and doesn't lack straight-line pace compared to the opposition, especially when you look at Hamilton's excellent use of KERS to overtake. Yet neither did it seem as if they were sandbagging, so it's all a bit of a puzzle.

[jens]

Hopefully Henrik will do a better analysis of this but this is how I see it after race 1: :p :


Heh. :)

Quite an unconventional circuit, quite a messy race. No clearcut conclusions (besides the dominance of BGP :p : ), but like in winter testing - many teams looked good. Even Force India could challenge for a point in the right circumstances.

Firstly, very unusual pecking order. The factory teams (Top4 of last year's WCC), who had opted for KERS, really didn't seem very convincing. We in a way have three different racing categories: diffuser gang, KERS-gang and "ordinary cars". :D I think in the next few races the "KERS-gang" (especially Ferrari) could be more competitive as the circuits will at least theoretically suit them more.

All in all, the beginning is in a way quite similar to 2004. In winter testing the competition semeed really tight with many teams looking competitive with the exception of only McLaren struggling among major teams. We turn up at Melbourne and one team emerges above others, destroying the field.

Anyway, Brawn GP's advantage at the moment seems enormous and I'm afraid even the ban of their DD-diffuser won't stop them fighting for wins. Considering that behind them the competition is really tight, rivals keep taking points away from each other, enabling BGP to even extend their lead further. Championship favourites for now. I can see them winning on all types of circuits.

Ferrari had a poor beginning like in 2008, but I expect them to be more competitive on the next circuits, which also should enable more use of KERS. Ferrari's very consistent and good race pace was praised during pre-season, but didn't see much of it in the race to be honest. The potential still needs to be unveiled. Reliability, as thought, is the worrying factor. I half-expected at least one Ferrari to retire and so it went.

McLaren - I must highlight teamwork here and especially in comparison with Ferrari. Even though Ferrari seems to have a faster car, then in other areas McLaren is stronger and it reflects in points standings already after the opening race. Quite amazing that they are second in WCC, but with such car (unable to make into Q3) they may struggle more in the next weekends.

I wonder, what will BMW decide KERS-wise in the future, especially if Heidfeld continues getting clearly beaten by Kubica? Behind Brawn GP's Kubica seems to be one of the main favourites for "the best of the rest" status at the moment.

Renault was indeed pretty invisible, but on the other hand Piquet wasn't running badly before retirement and Alonso's race was compromised at the start. Although some may suspect that due to their "brick-car" Renault's weakness is aerodynamics, then I really wonder if one of Renault's main weakness lies in adapting to new rules and especially new tyres in this regard. In 2007 they were struggling to become competitive on B'stones, now we are on slicks.

Like Ferrari, I expect Toyota to be stronger at Sepang and Sakhir - circuits, which have traditionally suited them better. 3rd in WCC after a very difficult weekend. The car showed great potential in the race, at least a few podiums should come sooner or later. With a consistent, reliable car I think their chances are quite fine to be a runner-up behing Brawn GP if they only manage to avoid dumb mistakes (and these are a real shame as they would waste their undoubted potential).

Red Bull impressed me a lot. I expected them to be in Q3, but P3 was a bonus. Their one-lap pace in winter was real. The doubtful factors were their consistency over race distance and reliability. Again in those two areas Red Bull in the hands of Vettel exceeded my expectations. RB5 is a very interesting and radical design, a lot of hopes were on it after the initial launch and they seem to pay off. No points from Melbourne, but sure enough there is more to come. Shame that Webber really failed to show much this weekend - mistake on his last run in Q3 and unfortunate accident in Turn1. He really needs strong drives to prove himself alongside Seb.

Williams was quick at Melbourne, although after winter tests there were suspicions about their race pace consistency and true - FW31 doesn't seem to be kind on soft tyres. Another factor here is that considering that Williams has been traditionally good on circuits, which emphasis is more on mechanical grip (street circuits + Monza), I suspect they won't quite do that well on more conventional circuits. And if winter testing is anything to go by, Williams seemed more impressive at Jerez (twisty circuit) than Barcelona.

Although STR and Force India are below others performance-wise, both looked good and promising. I think it was Fisichella, who really managed to hold people up, while many other drivers were overtaken quickly.

A remark for the future: While BGP is a clear favourite for the title, then P2 is really unclear at the moment with Toyota, Red Bull, BMW, Ferrari being pretty much in the game as the main contenders for this position. Wonder, where will current second McLaren stand in the next weekends. I think considering their usual high level in mechanical grip, then like Williams they may struggle a bit more on the circuits that are still to come. Especially as McLaren's main problems are arguably related to aerodynamics.

[pettersolberg29]

I honestly think any driver can challenge for podiums this year - even Force India and Toro Rosso. A lot is dependant on the diffuser debate, as in if they are allowed it then Brawn may get too far ahead by the time the others get a similar diffuser.
Otherwise both BMWs look good (Nick managed a 5th fastest lap in a very damaged car and Kubica was quick), Toyota look good, Rosberg looks good and the Ferraris have the pace but not reliabilty.

Anyway, just for arguments sake, here is the table if the diffuser teams are declared illegal and lose their points.

Hamilton 10
Alonso 8
Buemi 6
Bourdais 5
Sutil 4
Heidfeld 3
Fisi 2
Webber 1

[jens]

Anyway, just for arguments sake, here is the table if the diffuser teams are declared illegal and lose their points.


I seriously doubt FIA would disqualify previously achieved results. At worst case scenario DD-diffusers will be declared illegal from the start of the European season. And looking at Brawn's dominance, I guess there is a high chance of this to happen - FIA surely wants to create more excitement into F1 title fight.

[AndyL]

McLaren I found interesting. Martin Brundle made the very good point in commentary that the car didn't actually look like a proper dog at all during the race — it seems to corner well and doesn't lack straight-line pace compared to the opposition, especially when you look at Hamilton's excellent use of KERS to overtake. Yet neither did it seem as if they were sandbagging, so it's all a bit of a puzzle.

That is an interesting conundrum isn't it. To be fair even during testing Hamilton was saying that the car felt fine to drive, it just wasn't getting the times that everyone else was.
I'd hazard a guess that some of the other cars that were getting faster times in the more controlled conditions of testing and qualifying, perhaps found it hard to consistently achieve that performance in the more changeable conditions of the race. Maybe the less aerodynamically optimised McLaren actually copes better with the changing fuel loads, tyre wear, the turbulent air following other cars, etc.

[pettersolberg29]

I wonder, what will BMW decide KERS-wise in the future, especially if Heidfeld continues getting clearly beaten by Kubica? Behind Brawn GP's Kubica seems to be one of the main favourites for "the best of the rest" status at the moment.


I don't want to seem like I'm in love with Heidfeld, but we cannot conclude who's on top after this race. Yes Kubica was fast, but Heidfeld was hit at the first corner and had a severely damaged car (see his blog at http://www.nickheidfeld.com) and yet still came 10th and got a 5th fastest lap.

If anything, I'd say Nick is more likely to get podiums with his KERS. I may be wrong but thats my opinion.

[christophulus]

I think KERS will start to become an advantage rather than a hinderance within a few races, which may overturn the order once again. It's a huge benefit off the start, and once it's optimised it'll be difficult for non-KERS teams to overtake the rest!

[jens]

I don't want to seem like I'm in love with Heidfeld, but we cannot conclude who's on top after this race. Yes Kubica was fast, but Heidfeld was hit at the first corner and had a severely damaged car (see his blog at http://www.nickheidfeld.com) and yet still came 10th and got a 5th fastest lap.

If anything, I'd say Nick is more likely to get podiums with his KERS. I may be wrong but thats my opinion.

Maybe if on the next circuits KERS is more beneficial. ;) But we will see.

[F1boat]

I seriously doubt FIA would disqualify previously achieved results. At worst case scenario DD-diffusers will be declared illegal from the start of the European season. And looking at Brawn's dominance, I guess there is a high chance of this to happen - FIA surely wants to create more excitement into F1 title fight.

They make take their WCC points, however, a bit like Hakkinen's penalty in A1 Ring 00.

[BDunnell]

I seriously doubt FIA would disqualify previously achieved results. At worst case scenario DD-diffusers will be declared illegal from the start of the European season. And looking at Brawn's dominance, I guess there is a high chance of this to happen - FIA surely wants to create more excitement into F1 title fight.

Or they will be declared legal and everyone will use them, which would be my preferred outcome given the declaration by the stewards in Melbourne that they were fine. We shall see.

[wedge]

Williams look like dark horses. Nico could keep up with the front according to lap times despite the bad pit stop.

[RJL25]

The Mclaren looks like a good car generally speaking, good balance and everything, the aero is just bad though and there isn't enough downforce, that is the problem.

I'm really enjoying the inter-team battle between Vettel and Webber and based on the interviews from both of them over the weekend I think they are enjoying it too.

Webber had an edge over Vettel in all of the practice sessions, Q1, Q2 and his first run in Q3 despite having a heavier car, but unfortunately stuffed his final run and that is probably what ruined his race because had he qualified higher he would have been away from that.

Vettel drove a superb race but unfortunately had what I felt was a racing incident. I haven't seen enough to declare a winner just yet, I think both of them are very evenly matched! I would say at the moment that Mark probably has a slight edge over a single lap but then Mark has always been a single lap specialist, unfortunately we couldn't compare them in race conditions but hopefully that will happen in Malaysia when they take the fight up to the Brawns!

To be honest even though I am a big Webber fan and believe that he can see off Vettel like he has every other of his team mate in his career, even if he doesn't and Vettel beats him I won't be too dissapointed because Vettel is a superstar in my opinion and there would be no shame in losing to him, I just want Mark to chalk up his first win! COME ON MAN! for the first time ever he might just have a car that can do it as well......

[RJL25]

I think the fight for the world championship at this stage definetly appears to be between the Brawns, Red Bulls and BMWs... who would have predicted that!!!

Ferrari and Mclaren will start winning races again I think in the second half of the year, but by then it will be too late for the championship

[jens]

Would like to make one more observation after the first two races. :)
To me it's quite interesting that teams have seemingly been divided into two groups: 4+6. Last year's WCC Top4 have all lost, while chasers have mostly gained. When we look inside of these groups, there is nothing dramatically surprising: in the "Top4" Ferrari and BMW are in front with Renault behind. OK, McLaren has cocked up, but without Hamilton's Melbourne penalty they would have collected most points. On the other hand nothing stunning in the former "chasers group": two Japanese teams (one former though) in front with two privateers (RBR, Williams) closely behind and other two (STR, FI) further behind.

I think before the season at least some changes were expected, but what is incredible, is that all of the former Top4 have cocked up! It was expected that maybe at most 1-2 of them would drop backwards, and maybe 1-2 midfielders will rise upwards. But what has happened, is quite amazing. What may be the background of this?

If we look at those two groups separately, then what could be the reasons behind those rises/falls:
+ Brawn GP - long development period for 2009 and the work results of the specialists hired in 07 (Brawn/Bigois/Zander) have finally been unveiled.
+ Toyota - constant recent progress. What's more remarkable about their rise is that the developed TF108 almost until the end of the year.
+ Red Bull - one could have hoped that the experienced team led by Newey and Willis could think out something clever with rule changes.
+ Williams - again, before the winter I thought the rule changes could suit them. Another question is, for how long?

On the flip-side:
- McLaren - their fall is quite surprising to me. Probably the importance of aerodynamics for '09 has been underrated (McLaren's main weakness recently) and maybe... that's a pure guess now, but just maybe the 2007 Spygate and 100M $ fine has hindered them too. As known, the influence of any changes takes time in F1 - the fine didn't affect 2008 car development, but what about 2009?
- Ferrari - it was feared that the results of the departure of Team MS may come more clearly out in 2009.
- BMW - ban of winglets has hindered them? F1.08 was a more winglet-dependant car than any other on the grid.
- Renault - arguably their tyre-modelling programs aren't top-notch. In 2007 struggled to make a switch to B-stones, now to slicks. And to be honest, I don't think the team is quite the same as in 2005-2006. Yes, they developed nicely at the end of 2008, but they concentrated on their '08 challenger more than anyone else in the end too.

Plus the KERS-factor. The latter four have all got KERS on-board and the development influences of this system are unknown. It may not be impossible that in 2010 we might see another turnaround in pecking order as a standard-KERS will most likely become compulsory, so teams, who are using it at the moment, may have an advantage - but this is of course a pure conjecture.

[I am evil Homer]

Judging from watching a lot of in-car stuff on the BBC it seems McLaren is the only team that has got KERS sorted so that it works to full effect.

[AndyL]

Judging from watching a lot of in-car stuff on the BBC it seems McLaren is the only team that has got KERS sorted so that it works to full effect.

Quite true I think, I was expecting to see Renaults and Ferraris easily passing other cars on the straights, but that doesn't seem to be happening for them in the way that Lewis has been able to do in the McLaren. Surprising given that they must all have built their KERS systems to the same regulated power output figures. What is it about the McLaren system (or their use of it) that's making it more effective I wonder?

[woody2goody]

I was going to start a thread asking everyone who they thought was best of the rest. Now it's been tabled anyway it's a very interesting discussion.

The Toyota looks very solid. The Red Bull looks to be a more consistent package than the Williams, however Rosberg would probably have come second in Sepang with a dry race.

After that it's difficult. We have Renault, Ferrari and BMW. Ferrari have shown flashes of pace in practice and qualifying, Renault have dragged themselves into the top 10 with Alonso both times, and BMW are the first of the 'big teams' to garner a podium.

The difficulty in placing these cars in an order is that they all look exceptionally ordinary for pace. Also, are they even faster than STR? Anyway, here goes.

The spaces between the cars indicate the gaps as I perceive them:

Brawn GP

Toyota
Red Bull
Williams

Ferrari
BMW
Renault

McLaren
STR
Force India

At least in 09, there isn't a 'back of the grid' team. I've ranked Force India last, but I'd say McLaren, STR and Force India are interchangeable for pace.