What are the chances of RBGP taking the top step at Australia?

[jjanicke]

Last 2 days have been very positive for RBGP. Taking the top spot both days.

Odds at my betting site are 41-1 for jenson and 131-1 for Rubens to win the season opener. I put a could pennies on both ... just in case ;)

Let's face it. A F1 technical and statistical genius heading the team, with a very strong Mclaren drivetrain pushing the team.

[Tazio]

I have a suspicion thst Rubins line has droped substancially cosidering he has posted the fastest lap time of all drivers in Barcelona!. A realistic Vegas line
If you could find one that covers F1 Racing would be roughly 35 to 1 Most online books don't have either driver listed yet for the WDC or Brawn Racing in the WCC !

This is the closest thing I could find to a line on The Australian GP, Rubins 49 to 1 Button 29 to 1
http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/f1-drivers-championship.htm

Do you have a link or a Bookie! I'd take the odds you stated in a heart beat

[jjanicke]

Tazio my online sports book still has Rubens at 131-1. PM me if you like.

PS I'm talking about the season opener not the season. My site won't even post odds on Jenson and Rubens for the DC.

[Rollo]

131-1 is a good price. As of 0354 GMT on 13-03-09, the prices on Rubinho have firmed at William Hill to 20-1. Button is tracking at 10s and Lewis is at 15-8.

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/EN/betting/t/685/Australian-F1-Grand-Prix.html

[Valve Bounce]

Last 2 days have been very positive for RBGP. Taking the top spot both days.

.

Like me winning the lottery! Every Chance!! :up:

[Dave B]

I'm not betting on Rubens! Last time I did that he'd stuck it on pole but my local bookies were slow off the mark and still had him at 8/1 for the race, so I stuck £20 on only to see him slither off during the warmup lap!

[jens]

I remember, when I was watching 2005 Malaysian Grand Prix, then I was asking myself: "Is this Formula One that I'm watching?" Renault and Toyota were in front, Red Bull was quick. On the flip-side Williams and McLaren were midfield and Ferrari even further behind. The ranking of teams seemed so unusual, almost unreal.

Usually the status quo theories have their own strong logic, but at times with significant rule changes some - even if short-times - upsets may be possible. Maybe 2009 can offer something like that to us again. Imagine a BrawnGP and Toyota front-row at Melbourne. Based on the experience from previous years it would look stunning, almost unbelievable. But maybe it's not an impossible scenario this time - it would be a great moment for the sport, for Formula One.

Anyway, so far there doesn't seem to be any weak-link in BGP's car: quick, consistent, reliable - what else do you want? A win? The main counterargument against it is indeed that it just sounds incredible. Can it really be possible that a team, who was fighting for its survival for months, will despite all the disadvantages suddenly mop the floor with others? Only Melbourne can tell us if fairy-tales can happen in real racing too.

[555-04Q2]

Pretty good chance if you ask me. I bet Ross is smiling to himself as I dont think even he could have imagined his cars would be so quick out the box.

[Knock-on]

Pretty good chance if you ask me. I bet Ross is smiling to himself as I dont think even he could have imagined his cars would be so quick out the box.

I bet Ross, Nick and the whole team are overjoyed.

Nobody is saying much about Nick all of a sudden ;)

[ArrowsFA1]

Pretty good chance if you ask me. I bet Ross is smiling to himself as I dont think even he could have imagined his cars would be so quick out the box.
Well, he doesn't sound too surprised:

"The car is performing to our expectations..."
http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/73688

:s mokin:

[Lemmy-Boy]

I am highly suspicious of RBGP's latest testing times. They're most likely pulling one of the oldest tricks in auto racing, like "cooking up" or "artificially lowering" their lap times to reel in some sponsors. After all, they have a blank livery, plus they need to attract a considerable amount of funding for next year. This correlation is simply too hard to deny.

In addition, the competing teams have completed thousands of Kilometers in testing. They've also had plenty of time to fix or modify their new chassis's to ensure added reliability or speed for the first race.

I would really like to see RGBP succeed. But Like the past 2 years with Honda F1, they will probably remain in the back field for 2009. I refuse to buy into they hype that a brand new chassis (with less than 4 days worth of testing) can actually become a front runner in Modern F1.

Perhaps I may be wrong after all. But I won't put any of my hard earned money betting on RBGP to become a front runner for 2009.

[jens]

I am highly suspicious of RBGP's latest testing times.

I have to admit that yesterday's BGP's time seemed suspicious to me too. I doubt Brawn is clear of others, at best they are in the leading group together with Ferrari, Toyota and BMW. Even Williams managed a 1.19,7 in a quali simulation, so I think some teams may well be capable of reaching BGP's time if they really wanted to...

[ArrowsFA1]

Don't know about the top step, but Rubens sounds pretty positive:

Rubens Barrichello is adamant that his Brawn GP team will be the surprise of the 2009 season following its dream debut in testing at Barcelona this week.
http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/73694

I take the point about the team being out to impress potential sponsors, but given Ross & Rubens's comments I don't see Brawn GP as the kind of team to create false hopes. Ross has been positive about their '09 prospects for a long time, long before Honda departed, and I think what we're seeing is the kind of performance we would have been seeing if this team was still Honda. We wouldn't be talking about the need to impress sponsors in those circumstances.

[Tazio]

I have to admit that yesterday's BGP's time seemed suspicious to me too. I doubt Brawn is clear of others, at best they are in the leading group together with Ferrari, Toyota and BMW. Even Williams managed a 1.19,7 in a quali simulation, so I think some teams may well be capable of reaching BGP's time if they really wanted to...I'm curious how KERS fits into the equation. Do you think all teams have a separate chassis/weight distribution/suspensions set up at their disposal? And what is the rule in regard to whether the cars have to use KERS or not in 2009?

[F1boat]

Actually, as Rubens said in an interview, I think that Brawn GP might be at the level of the old Stewart Ford team in 1999.

[Valve Bounce]

I'm curious how KERS fits into the equation. Do you think all teams have a separate chassis/weight distribution/suspensions set up at their disposal? And what is the rule in regard to whether the cars have to use KERS or not in 2009?

I'm curious whether KERS will give the other cars the advantage that the Bronsen won't have during actual racing situations.

[Sleeper]

I'm curious how KERS fits into the equation. Do you think all teams have a separate chassis/weight distribution/suspensions set up at their disposal? And what is the rule in regard to whether the cars have to use KERS or not in 2009?
KERS is not mandatory for this year, I know that Williams and Toyota have both said they wont start the season with it, and no one else has commited to starting with it. Toyota may not even run KERS at all this year, the car hsa been designed to do without KERS if they feel there's no need for it.

This may actually be part of the reson why the Brawn is so fast, its running with a perfect weight distribution where all the others are at least slightly compromised having to test the with KERS on board, if maybe not active.

I reckon the performance is pretty close to what they will have in Melbourne, Kubica and Massa both believe Brawn will be a contender for race wins, at least early in the year. Massa was even asked if his Ferrari could do Barichello's 1:18.9 on a qualy run and he said "No, I dont think any one could".
http://www.itv-f1.com/News_Article.aspx?id=45262

[Tazio]

I'm curious whether KERS will give the other cars the advantage that the Bronsen won't have during actual racing situations.Good question! Judging by the tire wear isues and and additional weight especialy to the back of the cars I would hazard a guess that the cars that are set up and not designed aroud the kers 'sanction'
would have advantage. JMHO

[Tazio]

KERS is not mandatory for this year, I know that Williams and Toyota have both said they wont start the season with it, and no one else has commited to starting with it. Toyota may not even run KERS at all this year, the car hsa been designed to do without KERS if they feel there's no need for it.

This may actually be part of the reson why the Brawn is so fast, its running with a perfect weight distribution where all the others are at least slightly compromised having to test the with KERS on board, if maybe not active.

I reckon the performance is pretty close to what they will have in Melbourne, Kubica and Massa both believe Brawn will be a contender for race wins, at least early in the year. Massa was even asked if his Ferrari could do Barichello's 1:18.9 on a qualy run and he said "No, I dont think any one could".
http://www.itv-f1.com/News_Article.aspx?id=45262Thanks for clearing that up for me. What it does tell me is that teams that have been testing KERS are in a position to sandbag.
Something RBGP isn't in for the simple reason that they got started so late in actual testing.
What a great buildup to a season :)

BTW I don't believe anything any driver says in relation to the capability of their car during testing. Including Massa, and Fred

[Robinho]

http://www.itv-f1.com/news_article.aspx?id=45262

Alonso first, now Kubica and Massa all stating that they think Brawn's pace is real, sounds like a round of arse covering going on, just in case they all turn up and get smoked in Melbourne

[Tazio]

http://www.itv-f1.com/news_article.aspx?id=45262

Alonso first, now Kubica and Massa all stating that they think Brawn's pace is real, sounds like a round of arse covering going on, just in case they all turn up and get smoked in Melbourne
Who Knows?
I guess that is why they actually run the races ;)
If you check my FGP team you'll see I certainly couldn't pass on them
Especially at the bargain prices!

[jjanicke]

Thanks for clearing that up for me. What it does tell me is that teams that have been testing KERS are in a position to sandbag.
Something RBGP isn't in for the simple reason that they got started so late in actual testing.
What a great buildup to a season :)

BTW I don't believe anything any driver says in relation to the capability of their car during testing. Including Massa, and Fred

But remember RBGP is not using their own KERS. Everything, as far as I understand it, is sourced from Mercedes and they have tested significantly this season.

[Knock-on]

It does seem strange, almost unprecendented, that BGP can deliver this speed out of the box.

Logic suggests that they are below 605 but I don't know how much ballast the cars carry these days.

My heart hopes this is real pace :)

[555-04Q2]

Well, he doesn't sound too surprised:

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/73688

:s mokin:

Would'nt you say the same in his shoes ;)

I'll bet my left nut that when they saw their lap times, they were pretty surprised.

[jens]

I bet Ross, Nick and the whole team are overjoyed.

Nobody is saying much about Nick all of a sudden ;)

I don't know, what are Fry's exact responsibilities in the "new team", but BGP is still in need to find sponsors. :)

[CNR]

I don't know, what are Fry's exact responsibilities in the "new team", but BGP is still in need to find sponsors. :)

http://www.brawngp.com/teaminfo.php
Nick Fry - Chief Executive Officer (http://www.motorsportforums.com/forums/pdf/nf.pdf)

[Valve Bounce]

Nick's job is to Fry them until they are Brawn. :p :

[keysersoze]

Brawn's success reminds me of Walter Wolf Racing and Jody Scheckter.

[woody2goody]

I can't see Brawn being 'underweight' at the tests. Because they have had no testing before this week, they would be foolish to effectively waste their time on exercises like that.

The car has been developed for a long long time, and they have two excellent drivers. They said the times were in a low-fuel simulation, but they still beat the field three days out of four, and their first day they came fourth. I think some other teams were doing low-fuel runs too.

I'd probably put them third quickest behind Ferrari and BMW, level with Toyota and just infront of RBR and Williams.

In answer to the original question, I think the chances of them winning aren't bad. I reckon one of them will be on the podium. Which one I'm not sure, but I reckon they won't be far off winning that's for sure.

[Valve Bounce]

Is it possible that Honda will consider buying back the team from Brawn after the AGP?

[Tazio]

Is it possible that Honda will consider buying back the team from Brawn after the AGP?

Does a fish fart underwater? :)

[leopard]

It wouldn't be a mistake to look at Adrian Newey reasoning to recommend Renault engine for the Redbull. He knew exactly that Renault is the only manufacturer can supply its principal the same engine, or pretty close similar to their main team. The fact told us that early last year redbull performance was fairly better than Renault, until in the second half, Alonso's effort developing the Renault started working.

Whether or not Mercedez would supply Brawn the whole season the same engine as they supplied McLaren or as powerful as they use during the tests, is still a question mark.

[F1boat]

Whether or not Mercedez would supply Brawn the whole season the same engine as they supplied McLaren or as powerful as they use during the tests, is still a question mark.

IMO it depends on BGP performance level.

[ioan]

Did Honda F1 hire a new design team at the beginning of last season?
If they did than there is a chance for them to be faster than the others.
Otherwise it's a bit difficult to believe that a team that produced 2 very poor F1 racers in a row, and had no idea whatsoever how to improve them, will produce a car almost 1 second/lap faster than the competition.

[ioan]

It does seem strange, almost unprecendented, that BGP can deliver this speed out of the box.

Logic suggests that they are below 605 but I don't know how much ballast the cars carry these days.

My heart hopes this is real pace :)

Well, they were carrying arround 80-90 kgs of ballast before the new 605 kgs limit.

Not having the KERS unit in the car puts them equal (on carried ballast) with others and with a car that is 35kgs lighter.

Anyway this years pre-season testing was very strange with everyone trying to hide their cards until the very last moment.

[Tazio]

a car almost 1 second/lap faster than the competition.
But they only need one .000001 sec/race faster in the first race to succeed on this subject!

[jjanicke]

It wouldn't be a mistake to look at Adrian Newey reasoning to recommend Renault engine for the Redbull. He knew exactly that Renault is the only manufacturer can supply its principal the same engine, or pretty close similar to their main team. The fact told us that early last year redbull performance was fairly better than Renault, until in the second half, Alonso's effort developing the Renault started working.

Whether or not Mercedez would supply Brawn the whole season the same engine as they supplied McLaren or as powerful as they use during the tests, is still a question mark.

Not sure how much this is true. Engines are heavily regulated these days and I'm pretty sure there is little to no difference between manufacturer and customer engines.

Renault had to get special permission from all the teams to modify their engine during the off season to bring it up to parity. All teams approved the mod.

[jjanicke]

Did Honda F1 hire a new design team at the beginning of last season?
If they did than there is a chance for them to be faster than the others.
Otherwise it's a bit difficult to believe that a team that produced 2 very poor F1 racers in a row, and had no idea whatsoever how to improve them, will produce a car almost 1 second/lap faster than the competition.

This is essentially a Ross Brawn car from the get go. They turned most of their development efforts to the '09 contender very early in '08.

I can see how they made this big an improvement. Almost anything would have been an improvement from where they have been the last 2 years.

[Roamy]

brawn - 1 and 2
easy run !!

[leopard]

Alonso first, now Kubica and Massa all stating that they think Brawn's pace is real, sounds like a round of arse covering going on, just in case they all turn up and get smoked in Melbourne

Sure, they will not say anything unreal or they are unsure with...

[harsha]

RBGP = Red Bull GP or Ross Brawn GP :s

[ioan]

This is essentially a Ross Brawn car from the get go.

He's not a designer, he's a technical director.
To design a great car you'll need a good design team and a good technical director who will coordinate it.
They sure have the great technical director, but the design team is the same one who produced two of the worst F1 cars in recent times.

The fact tat they are in need for sponsors is what makes me doubt their real pace a bit.

[ioan]

RBGP = Red Bull GP or Ross Brawn GP :s

You're right.
There is no Ross Brawn GP, it's Brawn GP.

[Knock-on]

He's not a designer, he's a technical director.
To design a great car you'll need a good design team and a good technical director who will coordinate it.
They sure have the great technical director, but the design team is the same one who produced two of the worst F1 cars in recent times.

The fact tat they are in need for sponsors is what makes me doubt their real pace a bit.

I think you've answered your own question.

RB and NF are responsible for managing the team, deciding on direction and ensuring there is a clear message and understanding of where they are going.

It's not just the design but the whole development process that has to be managed.

The staff at BGP are essentually the staff that developed a car that challenged the dominant Ferrari and was pushing for the championship. They didn't just forget all that when Honda changed design direction but were lead in a different direction.

Now, it looks like they are back on track.

[Mark]

Quite. The design team are very skilled individuals but it's not the individual who decides on the big picture. The overall picture will be decided by a very small number of very smart people who will then direct the design team as appropriate. You have to have an overall vision and that can't be done by commitee.

It seems in the last few years the overall picture was wrong. But I think that, even if Honda had not pulled out, the car would be quick this year.

[Tazio]

"Just the driveability of the engine is a dream," Rubens Barrichello, referring to Brawn's customer deal with Mercedes-Benz, said. "Finally, when I accelerate, I have the feeling of knowing what to expect.”

"The power is wonderfully manageable and predictable," he added.

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/16032009/13/brawn-insists-pace-genuine.html

Blowing smoke or :s mokin: ???

[Knock-on]

"Just the driveability of the engine is a dream," Rubens Barrichello, referring to Brawn's customer deal with Mercedes-Benz, said. "Finally, when I accelerate, I have the feeling of knowing what to expect.”

"The power is wonderfully manageable and predictable," he added.

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/16032009/13/brawn-insists-pace-genuine.html

Blowing smoke or :s mokin: ???

:laugh:

Not like Rubins to stick the knife in?

Bearing in mind Honda still have a stake in the team, he might like to be a bit more guarded.

Would Honda really have suplied such a dog of an engine :s hock:

Might explain why the development of the rest of the car was compromised.

[ioan]

The staff at BGP are essentually the staff that developed a car that challenged the dominant Ferrari and was pushing for the championship. They didn't just forget all that when Honda changed design direction but were lead in a different direction.

Now, it looks like they are back on track.

That's not true.
The 2004 car was designed by a certain Geoff Willis who left the team in 2006.
So if the chief designer isn't the same one who produced the 2004 car how can you say it's "essentually" the same team?!
Maybe the janitor is the same one, but the brain of the team is not.

I would wait till Melbourne before I'd put money on Brawn GP, I pretty much doubt that a car that ran 6 days in testing after the team had no money for sandwiches, will beat teams like BMW who were testing the 2009 chassis already last year.

[ChrisS]

He's not a designer, he's a technical director.
To design a great car you'll need a good design team and a good technical director who will coordinate it.
They sure have the great technical director, but the design team is the same one who produced two of the worst F1 cars in recent times.

The fact tat they are in need for sponsors is what makes me doubt their real pace a bit.

I think you've answered your own question.

RB and NF are responsible for managing the team, deciding on direction and ensuring there is a clear message and understanding of where they are going.

It's not just the design but the whole development process that has to be managed.

The staff at BGP are essentually the staff that developed a car that challenged the dominant Ferrari and was pushing for the championship. They didn't just forget all that when Honda changed design direction but were lead in a different direction.

Now, it looks like they are back on track.

neither of you is correct, the 2004 BAR (and the 2006 Honda that won a race) was designed by Geoff Willis he left in 2006 and was replaced by Nakamoto, his design was Honda RA107 that was crap.

To fix the car Honda hired a number of new members including Jorg Zander but he only joined the team in January 08 after 6 months gardening leave so he didnt have any impact on the 08 car

[Sleeper]

neither of you is correct, the 2004 BAR (and the 2006 Honda that won a race) was designed by Geoff Willis he left in 2006 and was replaced by Nakamoto, his design was Honda RA107 that was crap.

To fix the car Honda hired a number of new members including Jorg Zander but he only joined the team in January 08 after 6 months gardening leave so he didnt have any impact on the 08 car
This is essentially correct, Nakamoto clearly didnt have a clue how to lead an F1 design and development team, which meant that all the talent there went to waste. However, not long after Brawn became the team Principle (remember he isnt the tech directer, and I dont think the team has one either) Honda hired Loic Bigois from Williams and Jorg Zander from BMW to take over as Chief of Aero and Chief Designer respectively. They spent the early part of last year restructuring the team so that it worked better and the rest of it was spent designening the current Brawn BGP 001, with a few bits and pieces trickeling onto the Honda RA108 just to see how they worked.

[Mark in Oshawa]

If this car is up front and on the podium in Australia, I may start watching f1 again more fervently. I think they were running a car that was a bit of a "cheater" in some respects, looking for fast times for the publicity. IT is done all the time in racing.

If this car is this fast at Melbourne, then people at McLaren, Williams and Ferrari will feel the heat and chances are the Brawn GP team will be pushed back by the upgrades the bigger teams have.

[jens]

This is clear that the design team of Brackley Racing has transformed a lot during years and they got a lot of new blood in the second half of 2007 (the names have already been mentioned here + their first major influence was going to be on the 2009 challenger), but what makes me a bit cautious is that the same highly criticized motorcycle expert Nakamoto was a vital participant in the design process of current BGP001 too (he was sacked in December'08 IIRC).

[Valve Bounce]

........................... but what makes me a bit cautious is that the same highly criticized motorcycle expert Nakamoto was a vital participant in the design process of current BGP001 too (he was sacked in December'08 IIRC).

You are absolutely correct. His job last year was to ensure the car had 4 wheels at all times. (not counting the steering wheel).

[ioan]

This is clear that the design team of Brackley Racing has transformed a lot during years and they got a lot of new blood in the second half of 2007 (the names have already been mentioned here + their first major influence was going to be on the 2009 challenger), but what makes me a bit cautious is that the same highly criticized motorcycle expert Nakamoto was a vital participant in the design process of current BGP001 too (he was sacked in December'08 IIRC).

Was he sacked or did Honda take him back after they decided to quit F1?

[woody2goody]

The fact tat they are in need for sponsors is what makes me doubt their real pace a bit.

Well of course they are mate they've only been Brawn GP for a week or two!

They won't be able to broker deals that quickly. Anyway companies would be foolish not to at least contact them after their recent performances.

[Sleeper]

This is clear that the design team of Brackley Racing has transformed a lot during years and they got a lot of new blood in the second half of 2007 (the names have already been mentioned here + their first major influence was going to be on the 2009 challenger), but what makes me a bit cautious is that the same highly criticized motorcycle expert Nakamoto was a vital participant in the design process of current BGP001 too (he was sacked in December'08 IIRC).
Considering the massive problems of the last two cars, I suspect that he would have been relagated to look after the 08 car throughout the season whilst Bigois and Zander worked on the 09 car. The lack of an overall design concept (through a lack of leadership) was something that Brawn identified very quickly when he joined and I doubt he would allow the same problems to have influenced the current cars design.

Thats all conjecture, but the times the car is doing now are way beyond what a car with such deep seated problems as its predecessors could do, even if they took out all the weight which wouldnt make any sens because its been a while since sponsors where signed of the back of strong testing performances, and in this climate they arent going to be too free with their money.

[jjanicke]

He's not a designer, he's a technical director.
To design a great car you'll need a good design team and a good technical director who will coordinate it.
They sure have the great technical director, but the design team is the same one who produced two of the worst F1 cars in recent times.

The fact tat they are in need for sponsors is what makes me doubt their real pace a bit.

That's all true. However as Principle Brawn brings a product development methodology with him that has enabled Ferrari and now, I believe, Brawn GP to achieve great success.

A great design team can go awry if you don't have the methodology to apply those skills as a TEAM, as an organization. That's what Brawn brings to the table, + his amazing statistical comprehension.

[ioan]

That's all true. However as Principle Brawn brings a product development methodology with him that has enabled Ferrari and now, I believe, Brawn GP to achieve great success.

A great design team can go awry if you don't have the methodology to apply those skills as a TEAM, as an organization. That's what Brawn brings to the table, + his amazing statistical comprehension.

Ferrari went the wrong way too back in 2005, with or without Brawn as technical director.
Also what happened at Ferrari was a combination of geniuses: Todt, Byrne, Schumacher and Brawn. Honda only got one of these men.

Going by yesterdays times Williams is only some .3 seconds off of BrawnGP's pace, which is a very good sign.

[Valve Bounce]

Also what happened at Ferrari was a combination of geniuses: Todt, Byrne, Schumacher and Brawn. Honda only got one of these men.



WRONG!! Bronsen GP has bunsen!! :up:

[ioan]

WRONG!! Bronsen GP has bunsen!! :up:

Has what?! :rotflmao:

[jjanicke]

Ferrari went the wrong way too back in 2005, with or without Brawn as technical director.
Also what happened at Ferrari was a combination of geniuses: Todt, Byrne, Schumacher and Brawn. Honda only got one of these men.

Going by yesterdays times Williams is only some .3 seconds off of BrawnGP's pace, which is a very good sign.

There are plenty of people like Todt and Byrne these day.

I put Brawn, like Schumacher, in a different league. There are very few people that I would consider on par or near these two. Actually I can't even think of an equal to Brawn.

[ioan]

There are plenty of people like Todt and Byrne these day.

I put Brawn, like Schumacher, in a different league. There are very few people that I would consider on par or near these two. Actually I can't even think of an equal to Brawn.

I put them all in the same league.

BTW who are those people like Todt and Byrne there is plenty of them?
Name a few people who made motorsport teams to Rally, LeMans and F1 championship winners, like Todt did.

Rorry Byrne always kept a low key appearance in the Ferrari team, but the fact that after his arrival the team went from good (a couple race wins) to Championship contenders tells me that he is way better than many other designers (Newey has been with RBR for a few years already and they were nowhere close to being championship contenders).

[ioan]

BTW, it seems that today Nakajima is posting better times than the Brawn GP drivers managed.
Shocking, eh?!

[F1boat]

Ioan, I heard that today and yesterday the track is much hotter, which, to a degree explains the times. I think that tests have been inconclusive so far.

[ioan]

Ioan, I heard that today and yesterday the track is much hotter, which, to a degree explains the times. I think that tests have been inconclusive so far.

That may be the cause, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Let's see what happens in 10 days!

[Knock-on]

Let's see what happens in 10 days!

At last, someone talking sense :up:

[Sleeper]

Ferrari went the wrong way too back in 2005, with or without Brawn as technical director.
Also what happened at Ferrari was a combination of geniuses: Todt, Byrne, Schumacher and Brawn. Honda only got one of these men.

Going by yesterdays times Williams is only some .3 seconds off of BrawnGP's pace, which is a very good sign.
Ferrari's lack of pace in 05 was more down to Bridgestone and the fact they were out numbered 5 to 1 in tyre testing against the Michelin teams than any fault of the teamk, if I remember right.

[ioan]

Ferrari's lack of pace in 05 was more down to Bridgestone and the fact they were out numbered 5 to 1 in tyre testing against the Michelin teams than any fault of the teamk, if I remember right.

Brawn acknowledged in the 2nd half of the season that the chassis was flawed because they started the design with slightly wrong downforce requirements given the aerodynamic changes between 2004 and 2005.

The tires also played a part, as you say.

[jjanicke]

I put them all in the same league.

BTW who are those people like Todt and Byrne there is plenty of them?
Name a few people who made motorsport teams to Rally, LeMans and F1 championship winners, like Todt did.

Rorry Byrne always kept a low key appearance in the Ferrari team, but the fact that after his arrival the team went from good (a couple race wins) to Championship contenders tells me that he is way better than many other designers (Newey has been with RBR for a few years already and they were nowhere close to being championship contenders).

Byrne - Adrian Newey, Sam Michaels/Patrick Head (although you could say they aren't designers but I feel they are)
Todt - Whitmarsh (not RD because he's too temperamental), Frank Williams


That may be the cause, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Let's see what happens in 10 days!

Couldn't agree more!

[jjanicke]

Ferrari's lack of pace in 05 was more down to Bridgestone and the fact they were out numbered 5 to 1 in tyre testing against the Michelin teams than any fault of the teamk, if I remember right.

Not so sure about that. The other 2 birdgestone runners (Jordon, Minardi) shod teams closed the gap to their challengers. The only Bridgestone team not to close the gap (or in this case widen the gap) was Ferrari.

[jjanicke]

Byrne - Adrian Newey, Sam Michael/Patrick Head (although you could say they aren't designers but I feel they are)
Todt - Whitmarsh (not RD because he's too temperamental), Frank Williams



Couldn't agree more!

I retract Sam Michael as designer.

[ioan]

Byrne - Adrian Newey, Sam Michaels/Patrick Head (although you could say they aren't designers but I feel they are)

Maybe Newey. But Sam Michaels is no one compared to Byrne, really.
I'd rather put Head in the same category with Brawn even if not at the same level.

PS: I saw your later reply, good move remvoing Sam Michales from that list.


Todt - Whitmarsh (not RD because he's too temperamental), Frank Williams


Frank Williams, yes.
Whitmarsh? FGS he never had a word to say (and I don't know if that will change) as long as Ron = McLaren.
How can you compare building Rally, Le Mans and F1 championship wining teams with being Ron's lapdog?!

[ArrowsFA1]

I'd rather put Head in the same category with Brawn even if not at the same level.
Amazing to think that Brawn began his F1 career at Williams, working under Patrick Head, in 1978.

[ioan]

Amazing to think that Brawn began his F1 career at Williams, working under Patrick Head, in 1978.

A clear case when the master has been surpassed by his pupil.

[ArrowsFA1]

A clear case when the master has been surpassed by his pupil.
Perhaps, although as when we try to compare drivers, it is difficult to make any kind of meaningful comparison because there are so many different factors involved.

Still, Patrick Head has 9 WCC's and 7 WDC's to his name which is a pretty darn good record, and 2 WCC's ahead of Ross ;)

[ioan]

Still, Patrick Head has 9 WCC's and 7 WDC's to his name which is a pretty darn good record, and 2 WCC's ahead of Ross ;)

He's also been around much more than Brawn, and always in top positions in the team!

[ArrowsFA1]

He's also been around much more than Brawn, and always in top positions in the team!
Not much longer, but Ross was a part of those early Williams championship successes.

Still, as I say, comparisons are not just about numbers, and both men have impressive track records. If Ross manages to get his team on the top step in Australia that would be a stunning achievement.

[jens]

The biggest concern about BrawnGP is their long-term future. They may start well in '09 thanks to thorough development work during 2008 with massive Honda resources, but maintaining their performance-level as an underfunded private team is going to be very challenging. By 2010 BGP may have dropped back to the rear end of the field again unless they quickly find some serious sponsors.

[F1boat]

The biggest concern about BrawnGP is their long-term future. They may start well in '09 thanks to thorough development work during 2008 with massive Honda resources, but maintaining their performance-level as an underfunded private team is going to be very challenging. By 2010 BGP may have dropped back to the rear end of the field again unless they quickly find some serious sponsors.

With these new caps, who knows...

[jens]

With these new caps, who knows...

But 2010 car will be developed during 2009 and the funding of the majority of F1 teams is better than BrawnGP's.

[ioan]

But 2010 car will be developed during 2009 and the funding of the majority of F1 teams is better than BrawnGP's.

Majority means 9 out of 10 in this case.

[Sleeper]

Not so sure about that. The other 2 birdgestone runners (Jordon, Minardi) shod teams closed the gap to their challengers. The only Bridgestone team not to close the gap (or in this case widen the gap) was Ferrari.
Not sure about Jordan, but Minardi brought out their first new car since '02 and was only going to make inroads on the oposition with it as it wa quite a big step forward for them. Bridgestone couldnt make the tyres work to as high a level as Michelin could and for as long. I'm not saying the Ferrari was a perfect car, but the tyres were by far its biggest problem.

[Sleeper]

But 2010 car will be developed during 2009 and the funding of the majority of F1 teams is better than BrawnGP's.
Are you sure? I've read that Honda put in something like $120m for the year, plus the $40m in TV revenue that they ae getting. Its not front runner money but it is enough to run this years car well and design a pretty good baseline for next years car.

They are still going to have to find some heafty sponsorship/wealthy buyer though or this could be their only year.

[jjanicke]

Not sure about Jordan, but Minardi brought out their first new car since '02 and was only going to make inroads on the oposition with it as it wa quite a big step forward for them. Bridgestone couldnt make the tyres work to as high a level as Michelin could and for as long. I'm not saying the Ferrari was a perfect car, but the tyres were by far its biggest problem.

I'm not going to rehash this point, but will say that this was discussed over and over when it was current and you had two camps. Those who believed the BS were the problem and those who believed the Ferrari package was the problem, and the parity of tires didn't help make up that difference. I happen to believe the later. As ioan points out Ross Brawn was of a similar opinion.

[jjanicke]

Wow, it just might come true. Thank god I have some money on both Jenson and Rubens.

[dj_bytedisaster]

Last 2 days have been very positive for RBGP. Taking the top spot both days.

Odds at my betting site are 41-1 for jenson and 131-1 for Rubens to win the season opener. I put a could pennies on both ... just in case ;)

Let's face it. A F1 technical and statistical genius heading the team, with a very strong Mclaren drivetrain pushing the team.

McLaren?, it's a Mercedes - I'm german - just a reflex ;) No seriously, I'd place my bets on Rubens, he's experienced beyond imagination - he'll know how to get the car home in one piece. And with Ross at the pit wall the strategy will be spot on - everything but a win would be FAIL for them. I can't wait though to see them winning - I have only two F1 heroes, Nigel - red 5 - Mansell and Ross - the Brain - Brawn. How's that for a typical German ? :D

[jjanicke]

McLaren?, it's a Mercedes - I'm german - just a reflex ;) No seriously, I'd place my bets on Rubens, he's experienced beyond imagination - he'll know how to get the car home in one piece. And with Ross at the pit wall the strategy will be spot on - everything but a win would be FAIL for them. I can't wait though to see them winning - I have only two F1 heroes, Nigel - red 5 - Mansell and Ross - the Brain - Brawn. How's that for a typical German ? :D

You are correct, although I don't know if the gearbox and KERS are from Mercedes. Do you?

Both RB and JB are 10kg's heavier than the next 5 or so cars. It's not until NH that the cars are carrying more weight than the Brawn GP cars.

It's going to be a very interesting race, and I'm keeping my fingers crossed this Cinderella team pulls it off. (there's a good payout in it for me ;) )

[dj_bytedisaster]

You are correct, although I don't know if the gearbox and KERS are from Mercedes. Do you?

Both RB and JB are 10kg's heavier than the next 5 or so cars. It's not until NH that the cars are carrying more weight than the Brawn GP cars.

It's going to be a very interesting race, and I'm keeping my fingers crossed this Cinderella team pulls it off. (there's a good payout in it for me ;) )

well NH weighs next to nothing ;) kubica is out, he's on a short stint. Only rosberg (GER) and Vettel (GER, sorry ;) ) left for a rival. so its either me heroe's team or some of me compatriots winning tomorrow - what a win-win-situation :D hope for rubens to pull it off though, nobody deserves it more than he, imho :D

[jjanicke]

well NH weighs next to nothing ;) kubica is out, he's on a short stint. Only rosberg (GER) and Vettel (GER, sorry ;) ) left for a rival. so its either me heroe's team or some of me compatriots winning tomorrow - what a win-win-situation :D hope for rubens to pull it off though, nobody deserves it more than he, imho :D

Actually NH was running significantly heavier. He was almost the heaviest of all.

Weights posted by the FIA post Qualy:



1 - Jenson Button / Brawn = 664.5kg
2 - Rubens Barrichello / Brawn = 666.5kg
3 - Sebastian Vettel / Red Bull = 657kg
4 - Robert Kubica / BMW = 650kg
5 - Nico Rosberg / Williams = 657kg
6 - Felipe Massa / Ferrari = 654kg
7 - Kimi Räikkönen / Ferrari = 655.5kg
8 - Mark Webber / Red Bull = 662kg
9 - Nick Heidfeld / BMW = 691.5kg
10 - Fernando Alonso / Renault = 680.7kg
11 - Kazuki Nakajima / Williams = 685.3kg
12 - Heikki Kovalainen / McLaren = 690.6kg
13 - Sebastien Buemi / Toro Rosso = 675.5kg
14 - Nelson Piquet / Renault = 694.1kg
15 - Giancarlo Fisichella / Force India =689kg
16 - Adrian Sutil / Force India = 684.5kg
17 - Sebastien Bourdais / Toro Rosso = 662.5kg
18 - Lewis Hamilton / McLaren = 655kg
19 - Jarno Trulli / Toyota = 660kg
20 - Timo Glock / Toyota = 670kg

There's a very good chance for a German drive or team to do well.

[Ranger]

Actually NH was running significantly heavier. He was almost the heaviest of all.

Weights posted by the FIA post Qualy:



There's a very good chance for a German drive or team to do well.

Heidfeld ran with KERS, thats where the weight comes from.

He qualified outside the top 10 so he could choose his fuel load.

[ozrevhead]

I'm not getting ahead of myself - both RB did have reliability issues in practice despite being fast....

As they say, "To finish 1st, first you have to finish" and its never been truer (if thats a word) spoken than in F1 especally in Oz!!

So many things can happen - someone taking a driver out , a botched up pit stop or a mehanical failure who knows...Kers could cause some carnage at turn one

I'm happy at the speed but I will be just about crapping myself at the start - Mark needs a good start!

[jjanicke]

BAM!!!!!!

What are the chances!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Apparently pretty good. Bet paid 41-1 for me :) :) :) :)

[Dave B]

Wow.

Simply wow.

[jens]

Looking at how quick Barrichello was even with a broken front wing, I think this says it all...

[aryan]

Heidfeld ran with KERS, thats where the weight comes from.

He qualified outside the top 10 so he could choose his fuel load.

KERS doesn't give any weight advantage or disadvantage. The minimum weight is still 605 kg with driver.

KERS's disadvantage is that the bulk of it sits at the back of the car, while cars without KERS can put their ballast in front, giving them a better weight distribution.

[AndyL]

Looking at how quick Barrichello was even with a broken front wing, I think this says it all...

About 2-2.5 seconds off the pace wasn't it? Certainly enough that they thought it worth spending the time changing the wing at the first pit stop.