World Champion of 2009

[jens]

Less than a month to go until the first race of the season and I really couldn't resist to wait any longer before creating this thread! The discussion in this topic should be more wide-open, heated and exciting due to the reason that testing hasn't given us totally conclusive answers either. ;)

[samuratt]

If testing means nothing, then Alonso for the championship battling with Kubica and Massa.

cheers

[keysersoze]

Kimi to win, with Kubica, Alonso, Vettel, Massa, Webber, and Lewis duking it out for the next six spots. Heidfeld and Kova the only others to feature somewhat regularly on the podium. Rosberg, Trulli and Glock will be evenly matched (and competitive) and will have sporadic success. STR and Force India will occasionally crack the top 8. The former Honda team will struggle.

Piquet to get the boot at some point during the season. Grosjean will be an instant improvement.

Rosberg will be begin shopping for a new team by June.

Both Force India drivers will be (unfairly) blamed for the lack of results. Liuzzi may get a shot during the season.

[Nikki Katz]

I think that last year I was adamant that Massa would win. Ok, I was wrong, but not by a huge amount!

I'm really not too sure this year, although I think that once the season starts it will likely not be anywhere near as close as last year, due to all the regulation changes it's hard to say exactly who will be at the front.

I guess I'd have to go for Massa again, but with a lot less conviction than before.

[RJL25]

Massa

[pettersolberg29]

This is going to sound crazy, but with experience, being the lightest driver and having a good car, I'm going for Heidfeld to win it from Hamilton then Massa. Don't think Nick will win too many, but with the new cars retirements are going to be far more common and I think Nick's consitency will get him though.

[jens]

Based on the testing evidence, past accomplishments, background information, personal opinions, preferences and impressions (read: actually based on nothing :p :) I've got to say that...

...although the exact pecking order is kinda unclear yet, I think what can be said with at least some kind of confidence, is that Ferrari should be the team, who with quite high probability should be participating in the title fight. Difficult to tell at the moment, which one of their drivers has a better chance, could be an interesting fight between them.

But the trickier question is that who is going to be Ferrari's rival or even rivals in plural. Possible options include BMW, Toyota, Alonso can't be written off either yet and maybe even Red Bull can create some mess.

With BMW it's pretty much about how much do we believe they are sandbagging. They haven't seemed to suffer notable problems, which may indicate that everything is functioning fine, but they haven't shown blinding pace either. So where do they stand? Drivers'-wise the situation is a bit unclear too. Like Kimi at Ferrari, so may Nick bounce back this year. But we'll see.

Toyota is my biased tip for the surprise of the year. Title fight might sound like a bit of a long shot to many, but Top3 in WCC in my view not. TF109 seems to be a proper racing car in every aspect - ultra-reliable, consistent, arguably one of the most tyre-conserving, a clear top car in the wet (thanks to good balance). The main question is about their ultimate pace/raw speed, but even in this department evidence is encouraging. As much as they have been testing together with Ferrari, they have seemed to trail the Prancing Horse only by a fraction of a second. The most worrying aspect may be that if rival teams master KERS, then they may find significant tenths plus advantage in tight battles on track. So in theory rivals may have a steeper development curve, but this is just a pure thought.

Renault has seemed very inconsistent, but on the better days Alonso has shown very encouraging pace, although they still seem a fraction behind Ferrari, the expected pace-setters. But even if Alonso has an inferior car, I don't dare to write his chances off especially taking into account his consistency and ability to take maximum of opportunities.

I suspect unreliability may become the main disadvantage for Red Bull, but whenever the car seems to be functioning, they have seemed quick. I'm not entirely sure about their consistency though.

Difficult to see McLaren together with Hamilton having any kind of shot at the title at the moment, at worst case scenario it could be a 2004-style cock-up unless they find a quick fix to their problems.

[pettersolberg29]

good summary altho pretty sure mclaren will come good

[jens]

good summary altho pretty sure mclaren will come good

Yes, I think they are highly professional team, who will master the rules sooner or later, but that could happen in 2010 or they may improve in the second half of 2009 (like they did in 2004 after a troubled start). ;)

[Rollo]

Only seven cars tested at Jerez, and of these the fastest was Glock with a time of 1:30.979. If you bear in mind that the lap record is held by HH Frentzen at 1:23.135 then the whole field must be sandbagging.

It follows that Massa, Raikkonen and Hamilton will be the most likely to square off for the title based on last year.

[Blancvino]

Kubica, Alonso, or Massa for win, place, and show, but not necessarily in that order.

[jens]

Only seven cars tested at Jerez, and of these the fastest was Glock with a time of 1:30.979. If you bear in mind that the lap record is held by HH Frentzen at 1:23.135 then the whole field must be sandbagging.


Huh? The 1:30 was a time set in wet condition. In dry the best times have been in 1:19's.

[Rollo]

Ah, thank you sire. The newspaper didn't report this bit of info... dang Murdoch press. That still however provides that the test session is an unreliable indication of performance.

[CNR]

on testing i think that redbull's 2 teams will have the most points this year.
Vettel this year

[ioan]

Only seven cars tested at Jerez, and of these the fastest was Glock with a time of 1:30.979. If you bear in mind that the lap record is held by HH Frentzen at 1:23.135 then the whole field must be sandbagging.

It follows that Massa, Raikkonen and Hamilton will be the most likely to square off for the title based on last year.

I don't know where you got those lap times but you are way of the reality regarding today's test times.

[Rollo]

Actually I got it from Eurosport, as the Official Formula One website at the time was returning 404 errors. That however seems to have been rectified.
http://www.formula1.com/news/headlines/2009/3/8973.html
Glock still managed to cover 89 laps in the TF109 on his way to setting a best time of 1m 30.979s.
Am I really way off? I don't honestly know how I could be any closer than exactly as reported. :S

http://www.formula1.com/news/headlines/2009/3/8977.html
Glock however is still the fastest at 1:19.814 which indicates that Toyota have really come to terms with the 09 package. If the Williams are almost two seconds down though, it must say something about the chassis.

[Shifter]

I think Kimi is refocused and will win it with Hamilton pushing him all the way. Massa for third, Kubica fourth and Kovalainen fifth.

[Valve Bounce]

Bunsen, no question.

[gloomyDAY]

What did Massa do after he lost in the WDC?


I went out and got pissed – in the circumstances what else are you going to do? (http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2009/mar/02/felipe-massa-formula-one-ferrari)Yes, I'm tipping Massa to win it this year.

[Knock-on]

I really don't have enough information to base a prediction on so am going on pure guesswork and gut instinct.

Renault - Just not feeling it this year although I think Alonso will flatter the car and be in the mix.

BMW - Could be a real surprise and I think Kube will do an Alonso. With a touch more pace from the Bavarian bruiser, I can see him up there in the top 5.

Toyota - Same old, same old

STR - Competing for 3rd's and 4ths

Williams, Frying Prawn, FI - I think Williams will have some good runs, FI will be pretty close to the other 2 and FP will come on strong in the 2nd half of the season

That leaves who I consider will be the 2 main protagonists. McLaren and Ferrari.

McLaren look a bit vulnerable at the moment. With 3 weeks to go, they are either playing it cooler than a Polar Bears dick or having a fundemental issue with the rear. However, the boys from Woking have a habit of resolving disasters.

Ferrari - The smart money. I think Massa has grown in stature but I sense a bit of detirmination from Kimi. Personally, I think he was annoyed with last year and will be the man to beat in 09 closely followed by Massa and Lewis. If this happens, I expect a few mistakes from Massa.

Final positions

Kimi, Lewis, Massa, Kube, Fred.

[F1boat]

Honestly, I don't have an idea. It is all very confusing right now.

[Knock-on]

Honestly, I don't have an idea. It is all very confusing right now.

Yep, but we need a line in the sand. What's your gut feeling.

[F1boat]

Yep, but we need a line in the sand. What's your gut feeling.

Renault. But it is REALLY a gut feeling.

[Knock-on]

Renault. But it is REALLY a gut feeling.

You're not using some of ioans special websites to base that on are you :laugh:

Fair enough but NP will really have to step up a gear if he's to support Fred.

[DexDexter]

Logically Hamilton, Massa or Kimi will win it. Of the rest, BMW Sauber has only won 1 race, Renault still have many of the same people who designed their cars the last two years, like Toyota too. Of the rest Red Bull will be satisfied with podiums and they have Mark Webber who collects all the bad luck in the world. So Mclaren and Ferrari again, like so many times before.

[Garry Walker]

Anthony Davidson.

[jonv]

Perry McCarthy

[pino]

Poll added :)

[gloomyDAY]

Anthony Davidson. :laugh:

[Tazio]

Fred by a nose :laugh:

[Pat Wiatrowski]

Where the hell is SB?????????????????????

[jens]

Good poll with various options. :up: Five teams, who have been most impressive so far in testing plus the reigning drivers' champion team in McLaren.

Voted for Timo. ;) After a year of adapting in the new team and now in an improved Toyota he could be the revelation of the year - like Kubica was in 2008, who as we remember had doubters after not-so-impressive 2007 campaign.

[Rollo]

Poll Added :)

He's a pretty crap driver it must be said. I remember his performance at the 2005 Elbonian GP in which his teammate Don-Nald Quixote also driving the Windmill-Ford let him through on the third last lap.
Poll Added was beaten by the cricketer Xavier Tras for Sportsman of the year that year as well.

[jens]

He's a pretty crap driver it must be said. I remember his performance at the 2005 Elbonian GP in which his teammate Don-Nald Quixote also driving the Windmill-Ford let him through on the third last lap.
Poll Added was beaten by the cricketer Xavier Tras for Sportsman of the year that year as well.

But you shouldn't underestimate the brilliant banzai overtaking-move executed by Poll Added in the 1977 Lagrellon GP, which brought him his maiden Grand Prix win! If anything, that race proved he's got balls and skills to make a breakthrough one day at the highest level of racing. He's like a wine - getting better each year. He is far from being past his prime yet. ;)

[SilverArrows]

Heart says Alonso or Kubica
Head says A Ferrari driver ;)

[ArrowsFA1]

I have no idea. None at all :p : The new regs have thrown everything open until we see how the teams compare in Australia.

Something tells me Hamilton may not retain his title, although I think he'll certainly be there or thereabouts, and that we may see the champion being from a 'surprise' team.

I guess that could mean Renault, BMW or Red Bull. Based on form last year I'm thinking either Alonso or Kubica and I'll plump for Robert.

[Big Ben]

I voted Piquet.
Mainly because I'm a good man.

[jens]

Something tells me Hamilton may not retain his title, although I think he'll certainly be there or thereabouts, and that we may see the champion being from a 'surprise' team. I guess that could mean Renault, BMW or Red Bull.


So you have already written Toyota off? :p :

[Tazio]

I love the way The Sun pulled this headline out of the Surtees interview.

I'm glad they didn't let me down :p :

The video interview is worth watching IMHO

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/sport/motorsport/article2308187.ece

[jso1985]

Voted for Timo. ;) After a year of adapting in the new team and now in an improved Toyota he could be the revelation of the year - like Kubica was in 2008, who as we remember had doubters after not-so-impressive 2007 campaign.

Owe you a beer now :D

in more serious thinking, I guess it will be either Hamilton, the Ferrari guys, Kubica or Alsono

[pino]

It will be a close fight between Kimi, Hamilton, Alonso and Trulli :p :

[leopard]

yeah truli... truly wrong... This year would be repetition of last year, Hamilton alone in the first group, close fight between Massa and Kimi in the second that makes the team ambivalent whom their support goes to, Felippe will get the upperhand again. ;)

[ShiftingGears]

Loeb

[Knock-on]

It does seem very open this year.

I hope Lewis and McLaren can pull something out of the bag but I'm concerned.

Smart money is on Kimi I think.

[CaptainRaiden]

It's surprising to see Kimi getting the majority votes in this poll, even after how he performed in 2008. Either there are more Kimi fans on this forum, or people just believe that he is gonna bludgeon the opposition this season. After all the criticisms of 2008, and the talks of Alonso replacing him, I'm sure he is riled up and thrown into a corner. If he is a true fighter, there is only one way he will respond.

I have a gut feeling he'll do it, simply because as a driver he doesn't need much time to get used to a new car, he is fast straight away. And he also said in an interview recently that he prefers slicks. (Well, who doesn't?)

[Knock-on]

I just think that Kimi was dissapointed with himself last year.

Motovating Kimi must be a nightmare as he will get off his ass and go racing when he's good and ready. I think that this year he will be ready.

I don't see Massa being able to compete with Kimi when he's on song and expect a shakey performance this year if that's the case. I also think that the narrow defeat last year will be an issue and expect a few do or die runs from FM in the early part of the season with more unpredictability than he had last year.

Alonso is a bit of a wild card as is RK and McLaren really seem to be struggleing at the moment. However, I expect Lewis to be up there in the mix soon.

[jens]

With every testing day it is becoming more and more difficult to see Hamilton as a title contender. If Lewis ends up on the front row at Melbourne, it must be the best sandbagging I have never known of. Doubt if even McLaren are such superhuman geniuses of hiding their potential.

And since the word "sandbagging" is so popular, I must add that there isn't much evidence of practicing it from the past anyway. Yes, BMW in 2008 was trying to hide their true pace, but besides that I'm struggling to remember any other notable case...

As for Kimi vs Felipe, it's quite early to tell, it can go either way. Kimi had a disappointing 2008, but it is entirely possible that he'll fight back. On the other hand Felipe has proven to be a very adaptable driver and has proven on countless occasions, how he shouldn't be underestimated. Recall, how before 2008 KR was expected to mop the floor with FM due to "loss of TC". Hence the "slick tyres" or any other rule-change related arguments don't hold any water in my view, when someone is trying to belittle Massa's chances.

[Roamy]

It will actually be Button but he is not on the list.
Brawn is going to surprise and surprise big !!!!

[Knock-on]

It will actually be Button but he is not on the list.
Brawn is going to surprise and surprise big !!!!

How much would I like to see Jenson up there.

A lot of eggs on faces :laugh:

[pino]

It will actually be Button but he is not on the list.


He's now so if you or anyone else wants to change his vote, just let me know it ;)

[christophulus]

Going to put my vote in for Alonso, not much has been said about him pre-season but looking at the end of last year you'd be mad not to consider him..

I'm surprised that the favourite seems to be Raikkonen, I reckon Massa will beat him again this year. Only thing I'm fairly sure about is that Hamilton won't win it again, the teams are just too close and I'm not sure he's got the consistency. Time will tell!

[Tazio]

How much would I like to see Jenson up there.

A lot of eggs on faces :laugh:
I agree! He's gotten a lot of bad press (on this forum) IMO

[Jake Stephens]

Its got to be Alonso

[Tazio]

"To be in the first six (in Australia) is almost an impossible task," Alonso said after the Brawn, Ferrari, BMW and Toyota cars led the pace on Wednesday.

"Some of those (lap) times are unattainable at the moment for us, with or without fuel. They are a step ahead of us," he admitted.



"But we are not so far away, some tenths, and if our rate of evolution is as good as it was last year, we can have good hopes."

Alonso said victory at Albert Park is unlikely.

"Even though we have done good preparations, I expect that some other teams have a small lead, for example BMW who are about two and a half months ahead of us."

"Some teams are showing incredible speed, also like Toyota and Brawn. And on Tuesday we could not have had the times of the Ferrari, the same today (Wednesday) probably with the Brawn."

"We are going well. Last year I thought I was just going to be a tourist - seeing the tracks and the cities and nothing much else, so I am more optimistic this time," Alonso added.
http://en.f1-live.com/f1/en/headlines/news/detail/090312092115.shtml

Believe him! And it's really got Flav's panties in a bunch. ;)

[jens]

You see, even Alonso is taking Toyota into serious consideration, something that some people here don't want to do. :p :

[F1boat]

Oh, I can't wait... :(

[Sleeper]

Raikkonen is my bet, he seems to be really getting on well with the new Ferrari, the rule changes have obviously necessitated a philosophy change in the design of the car with oversteer #, rather than understeer, being the inherant charecteristic of the car and that just suits him brilliantly. I expect that Kubica and Alonso will be his main challangers, to be joined at some point by Hamilton when M,cLaren have sorted their car problems.

My heart says Button will be right up their as well after testing this week, but its so early I'm not willing to make a prediction on that.

[millencolin]

2 other people agree with me... it seems patriotism is the main reason for our choices....

GO MARK WEBBER

[UltimateDanGTR]

Brawn will surprise. STR will be the best outside 'the big 3'. williams and toyota will struggle. RBR will have a disapoitnting season, as will renault, apart from an odd victory for alonso that will be lucky. Force India will probably be way off, and BMW will be as good as they were last year, if not better.

Mclaren vs Ferrari? The scuderia will edge it, Massa will be champ. Hamilton will do well in a not-so-good Mclaren car. Kovaleinen will struggle. Raikkonen will have a good year, unless he gets a good start to the season in which case he wont do. Massa will have a slow start, then race on to be champion.

Thats my view. I hope Im wrong though, so mclaren and Hamilton could be champs, but I just cant see it this year.

[Tazio]

If Rubns wins the WDC I'll give someone a big wet kiss :)

[F1boat]

I prefer Jenson to Rubens, but I doubt that Brawn can be THAT strong.

[jens]

People have definetely overreacted with the BrawnGP thing. A title battle between Jenson and Rubens with others having no chance? Nah, I'll believe it, when I see it. I think the situation is down to human psychology. People want to get the answer about who is going to win as quickly as possible. And as the winter testing hasn't given clear answers so far, it has only increased tension... And when someone manages to really shine, then finally a relief arrives like "thanks goodness, finally we know, who is going to win!" Whether the evidence is enough for a win in real conditions or not, isn't even that important here...

In my book Ferrari, BMW, Toyota and maybe BrawnGP (lack of development budget will hamper them) have all fairly equal chances... still.

[Tazio]

There is some over reaction, but I don't think anyone over the age of 12 has suggested that there is a likelihood of RB, and JB devastating the field, that was sober and serious. What do you expect when a team comes out of the blue? Who among us right now would bet $10,ooo in a straight bet that JB, and RB score more combined points than FM, and KR?
For all we know Bernie could own the team and be staging the whole kybosh :laugh:

Let us have fun until the plug is pulled

Toyota breath :p : ;) ;) ;) ;

[UltimateDanGTR]

You know looking around the interweb I cant remember the last time that everyone was so unsure who was gonna win, do well, challenge for the title etc. This has been one of the most interesting pre seasons ever becuase no one knows what is going to happen. I dont think Brawn can win the championship, thats insane. But I reckon they can surprise, as can everyone. I personally cant wait for this season.

[Tazio]

There is some over reaction, but I don't think anyone over the age of 12 has suggested that there is a likelihood of RB, and JB devastating the field, that was sober and serious. What do you expect when a team comes out of the blue? Who among us right now would bet $10,ooo in a straight bet that JB, and RB score more combined points than FM, and KR?
For all we know Bernie could own the team and be staging the whole kybosh :laugh:

Let us have fun until the plug is pulled

Toyota breath :p : ;) ;)I'd like to change that to a $1.00 bet :)

[berniefails]

The correct answer is who ever gets on pole in the australian gp