Pecking order of teams in 2009

[jens]

Some thoughts about the next year have appeared in several threads already, so let's gather them all up in one thread. 2008 will soon come to an end and it's not long before we will start thinking about next year already.

Of course it's difficult to predict, how competitive will anyone be next year, but it doesn't mean we can't make any guesses. Let's try to look at the evidence and discuss, who and how much might all those rule changes at least theoretically benefit.

[gloomyDAY]

Some thoughts about the next year have appeared in several threads already, so let's gather them all up in one thread. 2008 will soon come to an end and it's not long before we will start thinking about next year already.

Of course it's difficult to predict, how competitive will anyone be next year, but it doesn't mean we can't make any guesses. Let's try to look at the evidence and discuss, who and how much might all those rule changes at least theoretically benefit.http://www.motorsportforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=129838

[jens]

http://www.motorsportforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=129838


This thread is supposed to be about teams' performances, not driver line-ups. ;)

[pettersolberg29]

I'd say BMW and Ferrari will be the two strongest teams - with Massa, Kimi and Heidfeld the three highest scoring drivers (smooth driving style, slicks).

Hamilton and Kubica with their agressive driving won't succeed as much. Kovalainen will have a better season.

Honda, McLaren and Renault will fight for third. Force India and Red Bull will fall way behind with Toro Rosso.

We'll also see far more retirements, and three stop strategies due to likelihood of front wings falling off and possible KERS errors early on.

I expect there to be no more overtaking, but more excitement due to strategy and retirements, and so more first time winners.

So:

WCC - Ferrari (Then BMW + McLaren)
WDC - Massa (Then Kimi + Heidfeld)

[gloomyDAY]

^^^^^^^^

Wait, what? (http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/71385)

[pettersolberg29]

Ferrari will get the KERS done - maybe late, but one done it'll almost certainly be the best.

[christophulus]

I wouldn't necessarily write off McLaren, they've always been pretty good with the technological side of the cars, some advances more legal than others... (but the same could be alleged of anyone!)

I really hope Williams can pull out something amazing next year and get back into the mix. Am I right in thinking they're the only team to go with the flywheel system rather than batteries? Could be a great idea if it works

Toyota and Honda should have the best KERS system seems how they've had hybrids on their road cars for several years, but KERS isn't going to decide everything. Honda have had a rubbish chassis for the past two years so with luck they'll have that sorted by now.

I still think Ferrari will be (one of) the strongest, Raikkonen to get back on form. Closely pushed by McLaren, BMW and Renault.

[gravity]

I hope that Williams and Renault can get good competitive cars for the year. Toyota and Honda have the budgets to develop their cars too, but all too often, they make basic blunders and just become the "almost" teams.
Ferrari and McLaren have proven their class over the years and should be in the top 3 teams.
BMW have stated all year that they've dedicated their development time to next year's car rather than this year's which adds pressure to their dev team. Hopefully they perform well under pressure or they too will end up like Toyota and Honda... almost.

[pettersolberg29]

Forgot about Toyota!

Still think BMW will have the best KERS though.

[jens]

My thoughts too, then... And who might it benefit.

Firstly, if we take a look at the next year's regulations, then the importance of mechanical grip will increase. Who is strong in this area and who will quite possibly construct a very competitive basis - chassis? Looking at evidence, then the ones who will quite possibly gain and whose main strength isn't aerodynamics, are the very experienced teams - McLaren and... Williams.

KERS. As much as I have read, it won't be the most deciding factor. The difference may be something about two-three tenths and teams aren't even sure if with KERS the car will be faster than without KERS. So all in all I don't say KERS won't have any effect, but it won't be the championship deciding factor. It won't drop a team from the top to the back or the opposite. Chassis will decide.

Drivers will be more busy, because besides current buttons on the steering wheel they will have the possibility to use KERS and adjust the front wing. The concentration level will need to be even higher and maybe we will see more driver errors, who knows?

McLaren - this is the team I have least doubts about and who I regard as the most complete team in the current field. And also they excel in more basic aerodynamics. I have to admit I would be surprised if Hamilton won't fight for the title in 2009. Also in KERS department McLaren is arguably at the top in development process. Some thoughts have spread like with new regulations someone may make a huge gain and start dominating. Well, if there is anyone capable of this, it's McLaren!

Ferrari - I'm kinda sceptical about them. They seem to be struggling a bit and their car is more aero-reliant. However, their technical team is still quite strong and I don't expect them to drop to midfield or something like that... But on the other hand I don't expect them to build the best car for the second or third year in a row. Now it's the turn of someone else to have that honour.

BMW - Well, here are two sides. Their car is one of the most aero-reliant and have a huge amount of winglets. Also it could be seen in winter testing that they were struggling before they added winglets. On the other hand they have made a step forward every season and why not 2009 too? KERS should be fine too. So it's quite hard to predict BMW's form next year - they may flop, but I guess success is a bit more probable, because they have fulfilled their plans every year so far. :D

Renault - There are interesting rumours about engine equalizing. If this turns out to be true, it would be make them even stronger, although they are quick already now. The main problem seems to be that in KERS department Renault is arguably behind everyone, so let's knock those 3 tenths off there. Also if they keep Piquet, I find it hard to consider Renault as a serious WCC contender even if Alonso is able to fight for the WDC...

Toyota - Their car has less winglets than many other teams, but their baseline aero is arguably very good. However, the worrying factor for me is that mechanical grip has always been Toyota F1's weaker side, which may see them making a slight step backwards. All in all quite a dark horse and hard to predict - as it's always the case with Toyota. Generally I think they may well be quite inconsistent again - struggle in cold, but shine in dry and hot. As usual.

Williams - As mentioned in the beginning, I expect them to make a step forward, although I suspect during the season they'll drop backwards in terms of pace due to lack of funds for development. But in the beginning of the season they may be genuinely strong, not a top team obviously, but why not upper midfield. On several circuits Williams has been quick this year too, but I'd expect them to be more consistent in '09.

Red Bull - They have quite a strong and experienced design team. And I think experience may be important, because is Newey the only chief designer, who has been in the same role in the pre-winglet era? And more precisely in 1997 as F1 cars will become more similar to that era next year. If engines will be equalized, it may look quite good for Red Bull together with an excellent driver line-up. But I don't expect them as a privateer to quite challenge for the titles, more likely consistent points. And an odd podium or an excellent result in the rain.

STR - They'll fall IMO. With totally new cars the main attention will go to Red Bull A-team and it will take for STR again some time to adjust with the Ferrari engines, they also may not get many testing miles during pre-season. In 2008 they have become strong in the second half of the season after struggling in the beginning. Probably they'll struggle in the beginning of 2009 too.

Honda - Don't really expect miracles. If they appear to be in the midfield and can challenge for points, they should be happy and satisfied. KERS is obviously their strength, but it won't create a huge turnaround.

Force India - A talented and likeable team with some potential, but... to be honest, I don't see them beating anyone, because all the teams ahead are simply too strong.

All in all a modest prediction for WCC:
1 McLaren
2 BMW
3-4 Ferrari / Renault
5-7 Toyota / Red Bull / Williams
8 Honda
9 STR
10 Force India

Hey, doesn't seem too different from 2008. The cream rises to the top again.

[christophulus]

All in all a modest prediction for WCC:

1 McLaren
2 BMW
3-4 Ferrari / Renault
5-7 Toyota / Red Bull / Williams
8 Honda
9 STR
10 Force India

Hey, doesn't seem too different from 2008. The cream rises to the top again.

That's probably how it's going to be. The changes will come from whichever team messes up their car and drops way down the field rather than a poor team making an enormous leap forward

[gravity]

My thoughts too, then... And who might it benefit.
All in all a modest prediction for WCC:
1 McLaren
2 BMW
3-4 Ferrari / Renault
5-7 Toyota / Red Bull / Williams
8 Honda
9 STR
10 Force India


Nice little write-up there Jens! Enjoyed the read :)

My opinion would be to swap the Renault/Toyota teams though (based on budget). Although, since Alonso brings .5 seconds to any team (lol) we'll have to see if he is better than Kers!

So, based on your table, with the adjustments, it would look like this:
1 McLaren
2-4 BMW / Ferrari / Toyota
5-7 Renault / Williams / Honda
8 Red Bull
9 STR
10 Force India

It would be nice to see Force India move up the table a bit. Also, would love to see a couple new teams start entering F1.

[jens]

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/71896

Quite interesting strategy games are going on among teams as they are calculating, where it's possible to make bigger gains. Some teams (esp Honda) have a very high concentration level on KERS, others (like Toyota and obviously Renault) are putting more resources into getting the 2009 aero right, believing it's possible to make bigger gains there.

[ioan]

Oh no, again that thread where people will come up with "interesting" performance claims, based on nothing but wishful thinking.

You could at least wait for the first winter tests before you start wasting your time.

PS: Before I forget, KERS will not be as decisive as some believe, the best chassis and driver will decide the title, not KERS.

[jens]

Oh no, again that thread where people will come up with "interesting" performance claims, based on nothing but wishful thinking.

You could at least wait for the first winter tests before you start wasting your time.

This is the point of the thread - after the first winter tests we would already have some evidence and predicting would be less exciting. :p :

[ioan]

This is the point of the thread - after the first winter tests we would already have some evidence and predicting would be less exciting. :p :

What you are doing isn't call prediction it's called guessing! A small but important difference! ;)

[VkmSpouge]

Force India for the win.