Expectations from Monaco

[jens]

So what will happen at the top? McLaren vs Ferrari vs BMW. A tough question, but who will be the strongest force? (I'm not saying, who will win, because Safety Car may create a total mess :p : ). BMW has arguably very good traction out of slow corners. Last year in Q2 Beemers were 3rd and 4th, but went for a one stop strategy, hoping for a safety car. But as it didn't come out, their end result wasn't as strong as it could have been. Which strategy will they choose this year? Heidfeld, who is struggling in qualis, will almost certainly go for a one-stopper I guess. Ferrari was struggling really hard last year, but this year they should be arguably be quicker than last year. McLaren should be strong at Monaco or at least stronger than on aero circuits, but the only "but" is what we also heard at Turkish press conference - at Barcelona and Istanbul McLaren's loss to Ferrari came at twistier third sectors.

Behind this trio other teams shouldn't be overlooked too, who may show a strong performance. Watch out for Williams, they seem to do well on circuits, which demand more mechanical grip. Also Williams has been very good at Monaco in the previous seasons, so I think they know what does it take to be quick there. They introduced a new three-parted bridge wing already at Istanbul, which seemed to help them a bit in terms of competitiveness. Plus they have some serious updates for the upcoming races.

Alonso can never be underestimated. I guess he might be the one, who may benefit a lot from SC periods (Renault usually does). Red Bull has shown very consistent performances from track-to-track. Webber has in the past proven to be a force on this circuit and even Coulthard might shine at Monaco, which is one of his strongest circuit. The Scotsman might drive his best race of the season there.

Also interesting, what can STR do. STR3 is very similar to RB4. Of course RB4 has an advantage of being the A-team, getting most of the attention and the car has been built around Renault engine. But on the flip side, arguably Ferrari's engine is better than Renault's engine, which seems to lack especially in acceleration. And Vettel qualified into Top10 on another street circuit at Melbourne. I won't be very surprised if STR can produce a strong performance at Monaco.

Have no idea, what to expect from Toyota. Last year they were bloody awful on this circuit and TF108 has a longer wheelbase than its predecessor TF107. In 2007 Ralf was outqualified by Spyker's Sutil, so I guess this says it all. As it has turned out that Sutil isn't a racing god, then prolly Toyota was a match to Spyker last year. :rotflmao: Considering this I guess Jarno did well to qualify into Q2 in almost the worst car on the grid. However, if the car is competitive, I have no doubts that Jarno (and why not Timo too?!) will do an excellent job, but will it be?! Sure TF108 is a totally new design compared to TF107 and therefore we can't draw an clear parallel with last year. TF108's setup window is arguably wider, so hopefully this remains to be true at Monaco too.

[Hawkmoon]

Ferrari:
Much stronger than 2007. May not be fast enough to win but won't be demolished like last year. The shorter wheelbase of the F2008 has to be a factor in this.

McLaren:
Will obviously start clear favourites based on last year. However I don't think they'll dominate as the MP4-23 has a longer wheelbase than the MP4-22 and it would seem that the McLaren is actually slower than the Ferrari in the twisty stuff.

BMW:
A dark horse for the win and I think they'll finish ahead of at least one of the Ferrari/McLaren drivers. I don't think they'll win without some sort of misadventure for the top two teams.

The Rest:
No chance of a win or podium unless the race is chaotic. Alonso and Webber are the only two likely to threaten the front runners with the rest just making up the numbers.

[millencolin]

Im interested in seeing qualifying, cause this is the one race that Webber may have a decent chance of getting a good result. He is a very good qualifier, and this is a track that rewards qualifying more than any other.

All i know is that im going to be very tired after this race, as i gotta somehow stay awake and watch the Indy500 too! why oh why do the two best races of the year have to be on THE SAME BLOODY WEEKEND!

[ShiftingGears]

I'm tipping Ferrari. McLaren isn't out of the question and it really requires a stretch of the imagination to see BMW winning. As mentioned, Alonso and Webber will be strong, as always.

[Gibbsy]

Massa to crash into a wall. Im willing to bet my signature space on it. Any takers?

[millencolin]

Massa to crash into a wall. Im willing to bet my signature space on it. Any takers?

I would, but i think you are right...

That and Piquet making a date with the concrete/steel/whatever the barriers are made out of

[ioan]

Ferrari was struggling really hard last year, but this year they should be arguably be quicker than last year.

Yeah that's why they finished 3rd last year. What a bad form! :rolleyes:

[ShiftingGears]

Yeah that's why they finished 3rd last year. What a bad form! :rolleyes:

F. Alonso 1:40:29.329

F. Massa +69.1 secs




Think about it.

[Knock-on]

Ferrari have the better car on paper but this is one race that a driver can make a real difference. We shall see.

[Big Ben]

I think there are plenty of chances to be a very boring race.

[Knock-on]

I think there are plenty of chances to be a very boring race.

Well, we all agree on that one.

Qualifying is the only exciting bit half the time.

[pino]

I expect a podium finish for Trulli, that will put my Scuderia Pinocchio on Top of the FGP competition :p :

[ArrowsFA1]

Ross Brawn seems to be covering all possibilities:
"You see a few spins here and there where you know traction control would have prevented them. You see the car gets to a certain point where you know traction control would have not allowed it to get that far. If that happens at Monaco then you will be in big trouble so there may well be an issue. But saying that, I don't remember the shunts going down dramatically when we had traction control, so perhaps they will not go back up again when we lose it."
http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/67554

[Knock-on]

I think this may be a good race for Button.

[F1boat]

I think that Lewis Hamilton is the favorite to win, because he loves the track and McLaren are possibly the strongest team in Monte Carlo. I think that Ferrari however are strong and if Kimi drives like he did in 2005, he might win it again. I also think that Kubica or Alonso may cause surprises!

[jens]

I think this may be a good race for Button.

For some reason Barrichello has beaten him in the previous two years on the same circuit. :p :

[BDunnell]

Yeah that's why they finished 3rd last year. What a bad form! :rolleyes:

So why do you think jens said what he said, then?

[BDunnell]

Ferrari have the better car on paper but this is one race that a driver can make a real difference. We shall see.

Or, indeed, all the other factors that can come into play in Monaco, and often have.

[Robinho]

i'm expecting Trulli, Button, Wenner, Alonso, maybe Bourdais to all have very good races and be further up than usual, maybe challenging for some of the big points.

in reality it will be a Mclaren/Ferrari walkover with BMW not far behind and we'll all be surprised, but next year will all expect some drivers to make the difference and put their cars somewhere they wouldn't normally be

[Garry Walker]

Yeah that's why they finished 3rd last year. What a bad form! :rolleyes:

Well, only a crazy fanboy of his would rate his performance at Monaco as anything worthy of saying. That was one of the most dissapointing races he had last year.

[Giuseppe F1]

What chances a Ferrari parking at La Rascasse in qualy for a 3rd successive year then? :)

[gloomyDAY]

Massa looks quick!

Ferrari might just take this one again, although I'd like to see Lewis take the top honors.

[ShiftingGears]

Rain is predicted throughout the weekend!

I hope that the forecasts are right for a change :p :

According to the weather reports, it's going to piss it down.

[F1boat]

This means that the race it will be a massacre. If it rains, I think that Fernando Alonso will win!

[millencolin]

RAIN! YES!!!

Need a bit of luck like this to spice up the race and have a different winner for a change (no prize in guessing who im thinking of)

[N. Jones]

Massa to crash into a wall. Im willing to bet my signature space on it. Any takers?

Nooooooooo!!! I can't have this happen as Phil is one of my FGP drivers!

[jens]

With rain I'm afraid we will see half of the race behind safety car and an undeserved winner, who gets in front just because his pitstop is scheduled into the "right moment" between Safety Car sessions. Nowadays SC is brought out for every little reason, almost for nothing just to "spice things up and ruin someone's race". :rolleyes:

Recall 1996 at Monaco. Five retirements during Lap1. No SC - race continued! The same in 1997. Several crashes on Lap1 and again no SC. Now I'm afraid we will see a rollstart behind SC if the track is a bit damp. :rolleyes: With rain at Monaco and with current safety rules we will see no racing.

[Roamy]

Massa to crash into a wall. Im willing to bet my signature space on it. Any takers?

I'll bite - he is already scared sh!tless so he will be driving real carefully.
He has a great chance to win because he understands the cars have long
surpassed this crappy circuit.

[ioan]

With rain I'm afraid we will see half of the race behind safety car and an undeserved winner, who gets in front just because his pitstop is scheduled into the "right moment" between Safety Car sessions. Nowadays SC is brought out for every little reason, almost for nothing just to "spice things up and ruin someone's race". :rolleyes:

Recall 1996 at Monaco. Five retirements during Lap1. No SC - race continued! The same in 1997. Several crashes on Lap1 and again no SC. Now I'm afraid we will see a rollstart behind SC if the track is a bit damp. :rolleyes: With rain at Monaco and with current safety rules we will see no racing.

The reason there is rarely safety car in case of first lap accidents around Monaco is that there are so many cranes around the track that they can remove the stranded cars before the cars come around again a minute later.

[Sleeper]

Bourdais should be one to watch, his 5 years in America mean he has more street track experience than any other driver out there.

It'll be a fight between McLaren and Ferrari, but if it rains I'd put money on Button getting a podium.

[aryan]

Saturday:
Forecast: Considerable cloudiness with showers and thunderstorms.
Hours of Rain: 8 Hrs
Thunderstorm Probability: 34%

Sunday:
Forecast: Cloudy with thunderstorms.
Hours of Rain: 11 Hrs
Thunderstorm Probability: 51%

This is gonna be veeery Interesting!

[Roamy]

let it rain let it rain let it rain

[Valve Bounce]

let it rain let it rain let it rain

........................and kiss the armco !!!!

[gloomyDAY]

Potential podiums in case of rain:

Alonso
Button
Bourdais
Heidfeld

[ShiftingGears]

Potential podiums in case of rain:

Alonso
Button
Bourdais
Heidfeld

Outside the top 2 teams, I'd swap Button with Kubica or Webber. I'd be surprised if the STR finishes in the top 8, let alone in a podium position.

[ShiftingGears]

I'll bite - he is already scared sh!tless so he will be driving real carefully.
He has a great chance to win because he understands the cars have long
surpassed this crappy circuit.

Are you kidding? Monaco is a brilliant circuit. It's one of those rare drivers' circuits in F1, where the best drivers somehow pull out lap times which exceed where their car is normally capable of. Think of Moss in Monaco 1961, Senna outqualifying Prost by 1.5 seconds, Schumacher obliterating everyone in 1996 qualifying, Webber putting his car on the front row in 2006, and so on. Not only that, it requires precision, focus and bravery to be fast and to finish the race, as one wrong move will put you in the wall. Monaco is a unique circuit, and processional race or not, it should always be on the F1 calendar.

[ShiftingGears]

Maybe a Moderator should make this the Monaco Grand Prix Thread.

Anyway, the Red flags are out for Thursday practice. Why?

[ioan]

A lose drain cover, it seems.

[ShiftingGears]

Loose drain cover. Anyway, should the rain belch down I hope Whiting won't be a fool and run the first 20 laps under safety car.

[ArrowsFA1]

From Wednesday's press conference:


Q. What is it going to be like around here without traction control and in the wet without traction control?
Giancarlo Fisichella: For sure, it is going to be tough. Difficult. There are a lot of slow speed corners and there are a few corners where we use first or second gear, so the power, when it goes on the torque, is going to be very strong. It is going to be easy to have a lot of wheel spin, so it is going to be important to manage it. So far I have driven quite well with the new rules and I am quite confident for Sunday.
Q. Felipe, your comments on going round here with no traction control and - potentially – in the wet. Where are the danger areas?
Felipe Massa: Everywhere. For sure, maybe here it was already quite difficult with traction control. Without traction control it will be a lottery. Who is driving very carefully will maybe have a chance to win the race, but the problem is that you start learning all the corners in the wet without traction control but then you start to go every lap more and more to see the limit. And sometimes if you pass that limit a little bit you are already in the wall. It was like that with traction control. Without I don't know how it is going to be but it will be very tough.
http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/67602

[jens]

If it rains, then don't be too sure about who you predict on the podium. Instead of ability more likely the podium will be decided by the safety car, who will make appearance at least on several occasions. Anyone can appear on podium, although for that it's needed to keep away from walls at least. But even here it's hard to predict as even the greatest drivers have hit the wall at Monaco. Most predict Piquet to mess up, but maybe instead of him Alonso is the one, who loses control over his car and Piquet gets a win after SC has dropped all the others behind him - who knows?! (after that Jr will be declared as the greatest talent of all times and hardly anyone cares how was the win achieved).

[aryan]

Probability of Rain has gone down for both Saturday and Sunday. There is now about 50% chance of rain, though thunderstorms are still quite likely...

[ShiftingGears]

Just watching Monaco 1984...

Man that was a good race!

[ArrowsFA1]

Looks like Ferrari are struggling a little with the soft tyres:

Kimi: "We struggled a bit to do a time on new tyres in the second session and now we have to look at the data carefully to understand how to improve."

Felipe: "I wasn't able to do a good lap on the soft tyres, but things went well on the hard ones: we have to study the situation calmly and try to get all the details right."

Luca Baldisserri: "Our weak point today was mainly to do with performance on new tyres, especially on the softer tyre."

Perhaps Bridgestone should make them a bespoke set :p ;)

[Knock-on]

With rain on the cards, what do you think the strategy will be?

It really is a gamble. Do you go light to try and build up a lead before the first stop and get out in a good position to take the race or do you go long, anticipating a couple of safety cars that will allow you to take the lead.

I think at least 1 Ferrari, BMW and Mac will go long and personally I think it will be Kimi, HK and Nick with Massa, Rob and Lewis going with a more agressive strategy.

The reamining 4 spots, assuming no unforseen cock-ups in qualifying, will probably go longer.

[ArrowsFA1]

With rain on the cards, what do you think the strategy will be?
Guesswork :p : If there is rain, particularly at Monaco, planning a strategy must be an almost impossible task.

[ioan]

Perhaps Bridgestone should make them a bespoke set :p ;)

We should ask Knock-on's opinion about this! :p :D

[Knock-on]

We should ask Knock-on's opinion about this! :p :D

Nobody should have a bespoke set but every driver should have a set that do not structually fair during normal operation.

Not difficult a concept to grasp is it :p :

[ioan]

Nobody should have a bespoke set but every driver should have a set that do not structually fair during normal operation.

Not difficult a concept to grasp is it :p :

Not difficult to grasp?! What exactly "structually fair" means? It's a very strange concept that I never heard before! :p :

In order to be understood you have to learn to communicate! :D

[SGWilko]

Not difficult to grasp?! What exactly "structually fair" means? It's a very strange concept that I never heard before! :p :

In order to be understood you have to learn to communicate! :D

Pot, Kettle, Ioan? Your use of smilies paints you in a poor light. Trying a jibe under false pretenses = smug git in my book.

And, though it is sad I have to point out the bleeding obvious for the mods - that was not a dig, insult, personal, slanderous........ ya da da da da.......

[aryan]

Not difficult to grasp?! What exactly "structually fair" means?

Guys... please... can you keep this discussion in one thread? Those of us not interested in this topic would appreciate that. Thanks.

[ArrowsFA1]

(That Fawlty Towers sketch sprung to mind - "you started it" - but that takes us down another road well covered in another thread :p : :D )

Apologies for bringing up the tyre thing again :s tareup: but Ferrari's problems with the soft tyres are relevant to this weekend's Monaco GP.

[Tallgeese]

Monaco isn't an easy track & high downforce requirements means that the field is somewhat narrowed. Rain will also only narrow the competition but if it does happen we could see some interesting racing & over-cautious action. I say that it's clearly Ferrari, McLaren-Mercedes, & BMW Sauber at the front, with possibilities that Renault, RBR-Renault, Williams-Toyota or even Toyota itself capable of closing the gap this weekend due to the nature of Monaco & the 'how you start is how you finish' rule.

I reckon that it will depend more on the driver on this one than on the car for the top-3 (or even top 5) rather than the normal Ferrari/McLaren-Mercedes duels that we see. BMW Sauber did quite well in Bahrain (Kubica however isn't used to starting on pole!) & Heidfeld once again over-took a McLaren-Mercedes just as he did last year & Bahrain is a high downforce track itself.

[Tallgeese]

Not to change the subject, but I have one of these beliefs that Bridgestone isn't really the sort of tyre maker that Goodyear, Dunlop, Pirelli or Michellin were in their day. The thing is, the super-softs that were designed & deployed by 2007 seemed to give the long wheel-based F2007 the right mix of speed & agility but at the expense of running time as they wore out too quickly. On the other hand, the McLaren-Mercedes MP4-22 was faster than the F2007 on the softs (regular) tyres but could last much longer. As such while the super-softs did offer Ferrari a chance to 'pull away' it was too short-lived.

[aryan]

I say that it's clearly Ferrari, McLaren-Mercedes, & BMW Sauber at the front

First of all, welcome to this forum. I see that you've been here for a while but your recent flood of well-argued and insightful comments are surely a welcome distractions to those of us accustomed to the usual bickering which goes on here.

Don't get me wrong, I love this forum :p

Having said that, let me respectful disagree on BMW being a front runner here. I think practice one and two, and last year's results, show that Williams is stronger than BMW here. Indeed I'm expecting Rosberg to finish ahead of a Ferarri-McLaren or two...

[Knock-on]

First of all, welcome to this forum. I see that you've been here for a while but your recent flood of well-argued and insightful comments are surely a welcome distractions to those of us accustomed to the usual bickering which goes on here.

Don't get me wrong, I love this forum :p

Having said that, let me respectful disagree on BMW being a front runner here. I think practice one and two, and last year's results, show that Williams is stronger than BMW here. Indeed I'm expecting Rosberg to finish ahead of a Ferarri-McLaren or two...

Smells like a personal attack to me :laugh:

Anyway, Williams do put together a beautiful car for this weekend traditionally.

They are also showing strong at the moment but I put huge stock by RK and expect him to do well or blow it.

[Dzeidzei]

With rain on the cards, what do you think the strategy will be?


I´ll bet there wont be any Mika Salo on Tyrrell stunts: no pit stops at all! Cant remember the year, but it must have been the last time it was possible or even thinkable.

I´ll predict (with the rain) that the race will at some point come to a complete stop. All you need is 3 cars in the same corner and theyre stuck.

And Heikki will win.

[Tallgeese]

First of all, welcome to this forum. I see that you've been here for a while but your recent flood of well-argued and insightful comments are surely a welcome distractions to those of us accustomed to the usual bickering which goes on here.

Don't get me wrong, I love this forum :p

Having said that, let me respectful disagree on BMW being a front runner here. I think practice one and two, and last year's results, show that Williams is stronger than BMW here. Indeed I'm expecting Rosberg to finish ahead of a Ferarri-McLaren or two...


Thank you.

Well, I see where you're coming from, & the practice sessions do seem to indicate that Williams has a good chance of finishing well, maybe a podium as well. Still, I think that the more downforce is needed on the track the more conditions favour BMW Sauber as it allows them to narrow the gap to Ferrari & McLaren-Mercedes.

The thing is, you have to sacrifice some speed if you want more downforce & acceleration & vice versa, & that makes the field more level as emphasis on downforce & especially acceleration narrows the field down, but I still say it's a top-three, whereas in the high-speed circuits it's really a two-horse affair (Ferrari & McLaren-Mercedes).

The Bahrain track is one of the most unusual because it's really a series of twisty turns & a generous straight so no set up is really ideal. It's almost as if it's a dedicated test-track, but to be fair (when I tested on it) it's also a good way to test how well you do tune up your car (especially engine settings) though it's not one of my favourite tracks.

Still, we'll find out soon enough. I'm so excited about Monte Carlo!

[aryan]

The Bahrain track is one of the most unusual because it's really a series of twisty turns & a generous straight so no set up is really ideal. It's almost as if it's a dedicated test-track, but to be fair (when I tested on it) it's also a good way to test how well you do tune up your car (especially engine settings) though it's not one of my favourite tracks.



You've tested in Bahrain? in what car?

[Valve Bounce]

The Bahrain track is one of the most unusual because it's really a series of twisty turns & a generous straight so no set up is really ideal. It's almost as if it's a dedicated test-track, but to be fair (when I tested on it) it's also a good way to test how well you do tune up your car (especially engine settings) though it's not one of my favourite tracks.

Still, we'll find out soon enough. I'm so excited about Monte Carlo!

Eddie!! is that you??

[Lemmy-Boy]

Monaco has literally no passing opportunities, it's almost like watching a train pass by. Given the narrow track and high crash rate, I hope a new winner arises other than Ferrari or McLaren.

[Valve Bounce]

Monaco has literally no passing opportunities, it's almost like watching a train pass by. Given the narrow track and high crash rate, I hope a new winner arises other than Ferrari or McLaren.

On the contrary - every time somebody hits the armco, everybody can pass.

[ShiftingGears]

Kubica is going to be fast in qualifying and the race.

1:26!!

Anyone found onboard footage?

[Ranger]

I´ll bet there wont be any Mika Salo on Tyrrell stunts: no pit stops at all! Cant remember the year, but it must have been the last time it was possible or even thinkable.
That was in 1997... 61 laps without stopping!


I´ll predict (with the rain) that the race will at some point come to a complete stop. All you need is 3 cars in the same corner and theyre stuck.

And Heikki will win.

I predict that the race will time out rather than go the full 78 laps.

I smell a bit of patriotism here, so in a similar vain I'll say Webber will win. :D

[Tallgeese]

We've had some great moments at Monaco. Remember 1984 where F1 debutant Ayrton Senna in his Toleman-Hart pulled a daring over-take on 3-time world Champion Niki Lauda in the McLaren-TAG (using Porsche engines) & to sweeten the deal he did it in the rain!!!!!

[ShiftingGears]

We've had some great moments at Monaco. Remember 1984 where F1 debutant Ayrton Senna in his Toleman-Hart pulled a daring over-take on 3-time world Champion Niki Lauda in the McLaren-TAG (using Porsche engines) & to sweeten the deal he did it in the rain!!!!!

Bellof mounting the kerbs at Mirabeau to pass Arnoux was also quite brilliant!