Rookie winner?

[usgrandprix]

I think there's a better chance this year than most for a rookie winner.

First you have a lot of rookies which increases the odds--and a lot of them are quality drivers not prone to rookie mistakes.

Take out competition like Hornish and Franchitti.

I think some teams will look for an opportunity to get off-cycle on fuel. And there are a lot of opportunities in a 500-mile race to do that. Bruno came close the year Rice won. If the rain had come a smidge earlier, he was there.

I could see KV or NH running one car on an off strategy. That still requires some speed and strategy and is not as easy as some people may think. Mix in some rain and who knows?

Could be interesting.

Pie in the sky?

[BenRoethig]

I could see a true Rookie winning it if he had a better ride. EJ Viso seems to have a lot of talent and is a quick learner. When it comes down to it, I think Wilson and Power need to make some adjustments for ovals that they have done yet and the teams need to figure out the package.

[usgrandprix]

I really think Justin is getting there. He really seems to be getting ovals/Indy and enjoying it. Seems very cool about the whole thing. I read a quote from him about a qual strategy that accounts for how the car changes. This is the level of detail they need to be considering to make the small differences:

JUSTIN WILSON (About qualifying): "I wouldn't say I'm nervous yet. It will be a few more days before we get to that stage, but the only thing I've learned so far is that usually starts off a little bit on the oversteer side and it will generally go to an understeer. That's what I've experienced throughout the tire life. The first few laps, the car is neutral, and after a few laps it starts to understeer. Obviously, for qualifying, we need to tip the balance and start a little bit on the loose so it's best right in the middle of your run. We'll tackle that when we get there, I guess."

Wilson gets in safely this weekend and they can start working on race trim. Looks like rain on Sunday and I don't think they'll be in the top 11, so I hope they do second day qualifying on Monday rather than wait until the next weekend.

If he can run on the lead lap, he'll be there in the race.

Power I'm not sure about yet on ovals. Good driver, but the jury's still out for me. I'm pulling for him, though.

Viso seems like a Scheckter type. Can be fast and aggressive, but needs to avoid the mistake. Hope he can cool it down because he seems exciting.

Servia seems professional.

I don't really rate Graham's chances this year, but I was very impressed by his save the other day.

[BobGarage]

Power I'm not sure about yet on ovals. Good driver, but the jury's still out for me. I'm pulling for him, though.

I get the impression power is struggling with traffic. I think he'll be fine on first weekend qualifying, we'll just have to see how he does with 33 other cars on track on race day.

[keysersoze]

Alex LLoyd could be a real darkhorse threat for a top five. The Brit dominated a pretty talented IPS grid last season, and is with Ganassi, a team with a pretty stellar record at the Speedway. He was quickest of the day--at 223--on Monday.

Of the "transition" drivers, no one has stood out in the first three races. But give these guys a couple of weeks, and I'm sure a driver like Justin Wilson can figure it out. He's probably the best, technically. When he was teamed with Almendinger, A.J. was in complete awe of JW's technical / feedback skills.

[Phoenixent]

If I had to pick a rookie winner it would be EJ Viso. He's learning the ovals quick and is pretty quick on the track. Kind of like Mansell no experience on ovals but was a fast learner.

[gm99]

My dark horse bet for a rookie winner would actually be Hideki Mutoh - I think he has been seriously impressive in his first couple of oval races. Also, being with AGR (which came close to winning the Indy with a rookie - Danica - in 2005 and which of course have won two out of the last three races at the Brickyard) should help...

[BobGarage]

AGR (which came close to winning the Indy with a rookie - Danica - in 2005

Danica was driving for Rahal Letterman in 2005 ;)

[gm99]

Danica was driving for Rahal Letterman in 2005 ;)

I really must be getting old - my mistake, sorry!

[dataman1]

If I had to pick a rookie winner it would be EJ Viso. He's learning the ovals quick and is pretty quick on the track. Kind of like Mansell no experience on ovals but was a fast learner.

I agree. Add in an experienced crew (The former Bettenhausen team, Herdez, CTE-HVM, Minardi USA, now HVM. These guys have done very well with very little cash. If they avoid trouble look out.

[seppefan]

Alex LLoyd could be a real darkhorse threat for a top five. The Brit dominated a pretty talented IPS grid last season, and is with Ganassi, a team with a pretty stellar record at the Speedway. He was quickest of the day--at 223--on Monday.

Of the "transition" drivers, no one has stood out in the first three races. But give these guys a couple of weeks, and I'm sure a driver like Justin Wilson can figure it out. He's probably the best, technically. When he was teamed with Almendinger, A.J. was in complete awe of JW's technical / feedback skills.

My two picks as well if a rookie does it. JW is a little behind the curve at present but should improve while AL is on it.

[seppefan]

Oh Alex just dropped it...

[usgrandprix]

Could have been mechanical. Did you see it?

[dataman1]

The rear end came around on him while in a turn. Video is on Indycar.com

[usgrandprix]

Man that was a hard hit. Makes me cringe. Good thing the SAFER is there.

Wonder if he was trying a new setup. Maybe they'd taken wing out of the back and not enough out of the front.

Looks like he took the turn ok. He might have been a bit high at the apex and turning too hard to compensate.

All complete speculation on my part.

[keysersoze]

Well, there goes one of my darkhorses, but I'm glad it wasn't any more serious than it at first appeared to be.

Still, I think his weekend is done, and he'll be looking to just get in the race next weekend.

[seppefan]

Seems to me that the new teams with rookie drivers are way beind in terms of speed. Ok so it is .5 or .8 or .2 but behind. Justin Wilson is the kind of driver to not overdrive but what about Viso, lloyd, Mario D. At present I dont feel good for these guys but it is still early days i guess. Speeds seem to already be up 4mph on last year so gues the rookies are not doing too bad at all. But behind so far.

[usgrandprix]

My dark horse bet for a rookie winner would actually be Hideki Mutoh - I think he has been seriously impressive in his first couple of oval races. Also, being with AGR (which came close to winning the Indy with a rookie - Danica - in 2005 and which of course have won two out of the last three races at the Brickyard) should help...

And Marco almost won as a rookie a few years ago with AGR. It was an extremely close finish.

[usgrandprix]

I guess not, but Hunter-Reay and Mutoh looked good.

[Yankee Racer]

Hunter-Reay impressed me a lot. He ran a good race. However, I gotta give a shout out to the KV boys, Servia and Power, who finished 11th and 13th respectively. Power's improved a lot to get his first ever oval finish, and to do so in the longest and most challenging race of the year. He ran a quiet race, but all things considered, a good race.